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Background Ghana is implementing activities towards universal health coverage (UHC) as well as the attainment of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by the health sector by the year 2030. Aside lack of empirical forecast of the required healthcare facilities to achieve these mandates, health workforce deficits are also a major threat. We therefore modelled the needed healthcare facilities in Ghana and translated it into year-by-year staffing requirements based on established staffing standards. Methods Two levels of modelling were used. First, a predictive model based on Markov processes was used to estimate the future healthcare facilities needed in Ghana. Second, the projected healthcare facilities were translated into aggregate staffing requirements using staffing standards developed by Ghana’s Ministry of Health (MoH). Results The forecast shows a need to expand the number/capacity of healthcare facilities in order to attain UHC. All things being equal, the requisite healthcare infrastructure for UHC would be attainable from 2023. The forecast also shows wide variations in staffing-need-availability rate, ranging from 15% to 94% (average being 68%) across the various staff types. Thus, there are serious shortages of staff which are worse amongst specialists. Conclusion Ghana needs to expand and/or increase the number of healthcare facilities to facilitate the attainment of UHC. Also, only about 68% of the health workforce (HWF) requirements are employed and available for service delivery, leaving serious shortages of the essential health professionals. Immediate recruitment of unemployed but qualified health workers is therefore imperative. Also, addressing health worker productivity, equitable distribution of existing workers, and attrition may be the immediate steps to take whilst a long-term commitment to comprehensively address HWF challenges, including recruitments, expansion and streamlining of HWF training, is pursued.

Background: Heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) and post-menopausal bleeding (PMB) together constitute the commonest gynaecological presentation in secondary care and impose substantial demands on health service resources. Accurate diagnosis is of key importance to realising effective treatment, reducing morbidity and, in the case of PMB, reducing mortality. There are many tests available, including transvaginal scan (TVS), endometrial biopsy (EBx), saline infusion sonography and outpatient hysteroscopy (OPH); however, optimal diagnostic work-up is unclear. Objectives: To determine the most cost-effective diagnostic testing strategy for the diagnosis and treatment of (i) HMB and (ii) PMB. Data sources: Parameter inputs were derived from systematic quantitative reviews, individual patient data (IPD) from existing data sets and focused searches for specific data. In the absence of data estimates, the consensus view of an expert clinical panel was obtained. Methods: Two clinically informed decision-analytic models were constructed to reflect current service provision for the diagnostic work-up of women presenting with HMB and PMB. The model-based economic evaluation took the form of a cost-effectiveness analysis from the perspective of the NHS in a contemporary, ‘one-stop’ secondary care clinical setting, where all indicated testing modalities would be available during a single visit. Results: Two potentially cost-effective testing strategies for the initial investigation of women with HMB were identified: OPH alone or in combination with EBx. Although a combination testing strategy of OPH + EBx was marginally more effective, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was approximately £21,000 to gain one more satisfied patient, whereas for OPH it was just £360 when compared with treatment with the levonorgestrel intrauterine system (LNG-IUS) without investigation. Initial testing with OPH was the most cost-effective testing approach for women wishing to preserve fertility and for women with symptoms refractory to empirical treatment with a LNG-IUS. For the investigation of PMB, selective use of TVS based on historical risk prediction for the diagnostic work-up of women presenting with PMB generated an ICER compared with our reference strategy of ‘no initial work-up’ of £129,000 per extra woman surviving 5 years. The ICERs for the two other non-dominated testing strategies, combining history and TVS or combining OPH and TVS, were over £2M each. Limitations: In the absence of IPD, estimates of accuracy for test combinations presented some uncertainty where test results were modelled as being discordant. Conclusions: For initial investigation of women presenting to secondary care with HMB who do not require preservation of their fertility, our research suggests a choice between OPH alone or a combination of OPH and EBx. From our investigation, OPH appears to be the optimal first-line diagnostic test used for the investigation of women presenting to secondary care with HMB wishing to preserve their fertility or refractory to previous medical treatment with the LNG-IUS. We would suggest that the current recommendation of basing the initial investigation of women with PMB on the universal TVS measurement of endometrial thickness at a 5-mm threshold may need to be replaced by a strategy of restricting TVS to women with risk factors (e.g. increasing age-raised body mass index, diabetes or nulliparity), obtained from the preceding clinical assessment. Funding: The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

Background. The ``gold-standard'' evidence of effectiveness for a clinical practice guideline is the randomized controlled trial (RCT), although RCTs have a limited ability to explore potential management strategies for a chronic disease where these interact over time. Modeling can be used to fill this gap, and models have become increasingly complex, with both dynamic sampling and representation of second-order uncertainty to provide more precise estimates. However, both simulation modeling and probabilistic sensitivity analysis are rarely used together. The objective of this study was to explore uncertainty in controversial areas of the 2005 American Gastroenterology Association position statement on the management of dyspepsia. Methods. Individual sampling model, incorporating a second-order probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Population. US adult patients presenting in primary care with dyspepsia. Interventions compared: empirical acid suppression, test and treat for Helicobacter pylori, initial endoscopy, acid suppression then endoscopy, test and treat then proton pump inhibitor (PPI) then endoscopy. Outcomes. Cost-effectiveness, quality-adjusted life years, and costs in US dollars from a societal perspective, measured over a 5-year period. Data sources: mainly Cochrane meta-analyses. Results. Endoscopy was dominated at all ages by other strategies. PPI therapy was the most cost-effective strategy in 30-year-olds with a low prevalence of H. pylori. In 60-year-olds, H. pylori test and treat was the most cost-effective option. Conclusions. Acid suppression alone was more cost-effective than either endoscopy or H. pylori test and treat in younger dyspepsia patients with a low prevalence of infection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]