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This study aims at predicting the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) drought class transitions in Portugal, considering the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as one of the main large-scale atmospheric drivers of precipitation and drought fields across the Western European and Mediterranean areas. Log-linear modeling of the drought class transition probabilities on three temporal steps (dimensions) was used in an SPI time series of six- and 12-month time scales (SPI6 and SPI12) obtained from Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation datasets with 1.0 degree of spatial resolution for 10 grid points over Portugal and a length of 112 years (1902-2014). The aim was to model two monthly transitions of SPI drought classes under the influence of the NAO index in its negative and positive phase in order to obtain improvements in the predictions relative to the modeling not including the NAO index. The ratios (odds ratio) between transitional probabilities and their confidence intervals were computed in order to estimate the probability of one drought class transition over another. The prediction results produced by the model with the forcing of NAO were compared with the results produced by the same model without that forcing, using skill scores computed for the entire time series length. Overall results have shown good prediction performance, ranging from 73% to 76% in the percentage of corrects (PC) and 56%-62% in the Heidke skill score (HSS) regarding the SPI6 application and ranging from 82% to 85% in the PC and 72%-76% in the HSS for the SPI12 application. The model with the NAO forcing led to improvements in predictions of about 1%-6% (PC) and 1%-8% (HSS), when applied to SPI6, but regarding SPI12 only seven of the locations presented slight improvements of about 0.4%-1.8% (PC) and 0.7%-3% (HSS). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several vegetation indices (VI) derived from handheld spectroradiometer reflectance data in the visible spectral region were tested for modelling grapevine water status estimated by the predawn leaf water potential (Ψpd). The experimental trial was carried out in a vineyard in Douro wine region, Portugal. A statistical approach was used to evaluate which VI and which combination of wavelengths per VI allows the best correlation between VIs and Ψpd. A linear regression was defined using a parameterization dataset. The correlation analysis between Ψpd and the VIs computed with the standard formulation showed relatively poor results, with values for squared Pearson correlation coefficient (r²) smaller than 0.67. However, the results of r² highly improved for all VIs when computed with the selected best combination of wavelengths (optimal VIs). The optimal Visible Atmospherically Resistant Index (VARI) and Normalized Difference Greenness Vegetation Index (NDGI) showed the higher r² and stability index results. The equations obtained through the regression between measured Ψpd (Ψpd_obs) and optimal VARI and between Ψpd-obs and optimal NDGI when using the parameterization dataset were adopted for predicting Ψpd using a testing dataset. The comparison of Ψ>pd_obs with Ψpd predicted based on VARI led to R² = 0.79 and a regression coefficient b = 0.96. Similar R² was achieved for the prediction based on NDGI, but b was smaller (b = 0.93). Results obtained allow the future use of optimal VARI and NDGI for estimating Ψpd, supporting vineyards irrigation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A new procedure is proposed for estimating actual basal crop coefficients from vegetation indices (Kcb VI) considering a density coefficient (Kd) and a crop coefficient for bare soil. Kd is computed using the fraction of ground cover by vegetation (fc VI), which is also estimated from vegetation indices derived from remote sensing. A combined approach for estimating actual crop coefficients from vegetation indices (Kc VI) is also proposed by integrating the Kcb VI with the soil evaporation coefficient (Ke) derived from the soil water balance model SIMDualKc. Results for maize, barley and an olive orchard have shown that the approaches for estimating both fc VI and Kcb VI compared well with results obtained using the SIMDualKc model after calibration with ground observation data. For the crops studied, the correlation coefficients relative to comparing the actual Kcb VI and Kc VI with actual Kcb and Kc obtained with SIMDualKc were larger than 0.73 and 0.71, respectively. The corresponding regression coefficients were close to 1.0. The methodology herein presented and discussed allowed for obtaining information for the whole crop season, including periods when vegetation cover is incomplete, as the initial and development stages. Results show that the proposed methods are adequate for supporting irrigation management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]