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This article discusses the magnetic connectivity between the Sun and the Earth, which is essential for understanding solar wind and space weather events. Due to limited direct observations, reliable simulations are necessary. The most commonly used method is the two-step ballistic method, but it has many free parameters that affect the results. The authors propose a method based on self-consistent magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models. They combine the COCONUT coronal model with the EUHFORIA heliospheric model to compute magnetic field lines from the Earth to the Sun and quantify spatial and temporal uncertainties. To validate their method, they analyze four events associated with high-speed streams from well-identified coronal holes. The results show partial overlap with the assumed coronal holes of origin, ranging from 19% to 100% depending on the event. They also examine the magnetic polarity observed on Earth, finding that MHD simulations provide a good polarity estimation, with agreement ranging from 36% to 69% across the events. Spatial and temporal uncertainties explain the mixed results for some cases. MHD models appear more effective during periods of maximum solar activity due to the latitudinal extent of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). The authors conclude that MHD models offer results as good as the two-step ballistic method, with potential for improvement as more critical physics are integrated into the models., Comment: 11 pages, 6 figures, accepted in A&A

Solar Orbiter provides unique capabilities to understand the heliosphere. In particular, it has made observations of the far-side of the Sun and provides unique information to improve space weather monitoring. We aim to quantify how far-side data will affect simulations of the corona and the interplanetary medium, especially in the context of space weather forecasting. We focused on a time period with a single sunspot emerging on the far-side in February 2021. We used two different input magnetic maps: one with the far-side active region and one without. We used three different coronal models: a semi-empirical model (potential field source surface or PFSS) and two different magnetohydrodynamic models (Wind Predict and Wind Predict-AW). We compared all the models with both remote sensing and in situ observations. We find that the inclusion of the far-side active region in the various models has a small local impact due to the limited amount of flux of the sunspot (at most 8% of the total map flux), which leads to coronal hole changes of around 7% for all models. Interestingly, there is a more global impact on the magnetic structure seen in the current sheet, with clear changes in the coronal hole boundaries visible in extreme ultra-violet (EUV) on the western limb. For the Wind Predict-AW model, we demonstrate that the inclusion of the far-side data improves both the structure of the streamers and the connectivity to the spacecraft. In conclusion, the inclusion of a single far-side active region may have a small local effect with respect to the total magnetic flux, but it has global effects on the magnetic structure, and thus it must be taken into account to accurately describe the Sun-Earth connection. The flattening of the heliospheric current sheet for all models reveals an increase of the source surface height, which affects the open and closed magnetic field line distributions., Comment: 22 pages, 12 figures, accepted in A&A

The propagation of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) in the heliosphere is influenced by many physical phenomena, related to the internal structure of the ICME and its interaction with the ambient solar wind and magnetic field. As the solar magnetic field is modulated by the 11-year dynamo cycle, our goal is to perform a theoretical exploratory study to assess the difference of propagation of an ICME in typical minimum and maximum activity backgrounds. We define a median representative CME at 0.1~au, using both observations and numerical simulations, and describe it using a spheromak model. We use the heliospheric propagator European Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) to inject the same ICME in two different background wind environments. We then study how the environment and the internal CME structure impact the propagation of the ICME towards Earth, by comparison with an unmagnetized CME. At minimum of activity, the structure of the heliosphere around the ecliptic causes the ICME to slow down, creating a delay with the polar parts of the ejecta. This delay is more important if the ICME is faster. At maximum of activity, a southern coronal hole causes a northward deflection. For these cases, we always find that the ICME at maximum of activity arrives first, while the ICME at minimum of activity is actually more geo-effective. The helicity sign of the ICME is also a crucial parameter but at minimum of activity only, since it affects the magnetic profile and the arrival time of up to 8 hours., Comment: 25 pages, 16 figures, accepted in ApJ

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD)-based global solar coronal simulations are slowly making their way into the space weather modeling toolchains to replace the semi-empirical methods such as the Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. However, since they are based on CFD, if the assumptions in them are too strong, these codes might experience issues with convergence and unphysical solutions. Particularly the magnetograms corresponding to solar maxima can pose problems as they contain active regions with strong magnetic fields, resulting in large gradients. Combined with the approximate way in which the inner boundary is often treated, this can lead to non-physical features or even a complete divergence of the simulation in these cases. Here, we show some of the possible approaches to handle this inner boundary in our global coronal model COolfluid COrona uNstrUcTured (COCONUT) in a way that improves both convergence and accuracy. Since we know that prescribing the photospheric magnetic field for a region that represents the lower corona is not entirely physical, first, we look at the ways in which we can adjust the input magnetograms to remove the highest magnitudes and gradients. Secondly, since in the default setup we also assume a constant density, here we experiment with changing these values locally and globally to see the effect on the results. We conclude, through comparison with observations and convergence analysis, that modifying the density locally in active regions is the best way to improve the performance both in terms of convergence and physical accuracy from the tested approaches., Comment: 11 pages, 4 figures

This paper is dedicated to the new implicit unstructured coronal code COCONUT, which aims at providing fast and accurate inputs for space weather forecast as an alternative to empirical models. We use all 20 available magnetic maps of the solar photosphere covering the date of the 2nd of July 2019 which corresponds to a solar eclipse on Earth. We use the same standard pre-processing on all maps, then perform coronal MHD simulations with the same numerical and physical parameters. In the end, we quantify the performance for each map using three indicators from remote-sensing observations: white-light total solar eclipse images for the streamers' edges, EUV synoptic maps for coronal holes and white-light coronagraph images for the heliospheric current sheet. We discuss the performance for space weather forecasts and we show that the choice of the input magnetic map has a strong impact. We find performances between 24% to 85% for the streamers' edges, 24% to 88% for the coronal hole boundaries and a mean deviation between 4 to 12 degrees for the heliospheric current sheet position. We find that the HMI runs are globally performing better on all indicators, with the GONG-ADAPT being the second-best choice. HMI runs perform better for the streamers' edges, GONG-ADAPT for polar coronal holes, HMI synchronic for equatorial coronal holes and for the streamer belt. We especially showcase the importance of the filling of the poles. This demonstrates that the solar poles have to be taken into account even for ecliptic plane previsions., Comment: 27 pages, 11 figures, Accepted in ApJ

In the recent years, global coronal models have experienced an ongoing increase in popularity as tools for forecasting solar weather. Within the domain of up to 21.5Rsun, magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) is used to resolve the coronal structure using magnetograms as inputs at the solar surface. Ideally, these computations would be repeated with every update of the solar magnetogram so that they could be used in the ESA Modelling and Data Analysis Working Group (MADAWG) magnetic connectivity tool (http://connect-tool.irap.omp.eu/). Thus, it is crucial that these results are both accurate and efficient. While much work has been published showing the results of these models in comparison with observations, not many of it discusses the intricate numerical adjustments required to achieve these results. These range from details of boundary condition formulations to adjustments as large as enforcing parallelism between the magnetic field and velocity. By omitting the electric field in ideal-MHD, the description of the physics can be insufficient and may lead to excessive diffusion and incorrect profiles. We formulate inner boundary conditions which, along with other techniques, reduce artificial electric field generation. Moreover, we investigate how different outer boundary condition formulations and grid design affect the results and convergence, with special focus on the density and the radial component of the B-field. The significant improvement in accuracy of real magnetic map-driven simulations is illustrated for an example of the 2008 eclipse., Comment: 28 pages, 26 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJS

We present a novel global 3-D coronal MHD model called COCONUT, polytropic in its first stage and based on a time-implicit backward Euler scheme. Our model boosts run-time performance in comparison with contemporary MHD-solvers based on explicit schemes, which is particularly important when later employed in an operational setting for space weather forecasting. It is data-driven in the sense that we use synoptic maps as inner boundary input for our potential field initialization as well as an inner boundary condition in the further MHD time evolution. The coronal model is developed as part of the EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) and will replace the currently employed, more simplistic, empirical Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA) model. At 21.5 Rs where the solar wind is already supersonic, it is coupled to EUHFORIA's heliospheric model. We validate and benchmark our coronal simulation results with the explicit-scheme Wind-Predict model and find good agreement for idealized limit cases as well as real magnetograms, while obtaining a computational time reduction of up to a factor 3 for simple idealized cases, and up to 35 for realistic configurations, and we demonstrate that the time gained increases with the spatial resolution of the input synoptic map. We also use observations to constrain the model and show that it recovers relevant features such as the position and shape of the streamers (by comparison with eclipse white-light images), the coronal holes (by comparison with EUV images) and the current sheet (by comparison with WSA model at 0.1 AU)., Comment: 30 pages, 15 figures, accepted in the Astrophysical Journal (ApJ). B Perri and P Leitner contributed equally to this work

The physical properties responsible for the formation and evolution of the corona and heliosphere are still not completely understood. 3D MHD global modeling is a powerful tool to investigate all the possible candidate processes. To fully understand the role of each of them, we need a validation process where the output from the simulations is quantitatively compared to the observational data. In this work, we present the results from our validation process applied to the wave turbulence driven 3D MHD corona-wind model WindPredict-AW. At this stage of the model development, we focus the work to the coronal regime in quiescent condition. We analyze three simulations results, which differ by the boundary values. We use the 3D distributions of density and temperature, output from the simulations at the time of around the First Parker Solar Probe perihelion (during minimum of the solar activity), to synthesize both extreme ultraviolet (EUV) and white light polarized (WL pB) images to reproduce the observed solar corona. For these tests, we selected AIA 193 A, 211 A and 171 A EUV emissions, MLSO K-Cor and LASCO C2 pB images obtained the 6 and 7 November 2018. We then make quantitative comparisons of the disk and off limb corona. We show that our model is able to produce synthetic images comparable to those of the observed corona., Comment: in press

Magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations of the solar corona have become more popular with the increased availability of computational power. Modern computational plasma codes, relying upon Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods, allow for resolving the coronal features using solar surface magnetograms as inputs. These computations are carried out in a full 3D domain and thus selection of the right mesh configuration is essential to save computational resources and enable/speed up convergence. In addition, it has been observed that for MHD simulations close to the hydrostatic equilibrium, spurious numerical artefacts might appear in the solution following the mesh structure, which makes the selection of the grid also a concern for accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to discuss and trade off two main mesh topologies when applied to global solar corona simulations using the unstructured ideal MHD solver from the COOLFluiD platform. The first topology is based on the geodesic polyhedron and the second on UV mapping. Focus will be placed on aspects such as mesh adaptability, resolution distribution, resulting spurious numerical fluxes and convergence performance. For this purpose, firstly a rotating dipole case is investigated, followed by two simulations using real magnetograms from the solar minima (1995) and solar maxima (1999). It is concluded that the most appropriate mesh topology for the simulation depends on several factors, such as the accuracy requirements, the presence of features near the polar regions and/or strong features in the flow field in general. If convergence is of concern and the simulation contains strong dynamics, then grids which are based on the geodesic polyhedron are recommended compared to more conventionally used UV-mapped meshes., Comment: 30 pages, 22 figures, 3 tables

Progress in space weather research and awareness needs community-wide strategies and procedures to evaluate our modeling assets. Here we present the activities of the Ambient Solar Wind Validation Team embedded in the COSPAR ISWAT initiative. We aim to bridge the gap between model developers and end-users to provide the community with an assessment of the state-of-the-art in solar wind forecasting. To this end, we develop an open online platform for validating solar wind models by comparing their solutions with in situ spacecraft measurements. The online platform will allow the space weather community to test the quality of state-of-the-art solar wind models with unified metrics providing an unbiased assessment of progress over time. In this study, we propose a metadata architecture and recommend community-wide forecasting goals and validation metrics. We conclude with a status update of the online platform and outline future perspectives.

We use the ASH code to model the convective dynamo of solar-type stars. Based on a series of 15 3-D MHD simulations spanning 4 bins in rotation and mass, we show what mechanisms are at work in these stellar dynamos with and without magnetic cycles and how global stellar parameters affect the outcome. We also derive scaling laws for the differential rotation and magnetic field based on these simulations. We find a weaker trend between differential rotation and stellar rotation rate, ($\Delta \Omega \sim (|\Omega|/\Omega_{\odot})^{0.46}$) in the MHD solutions than in their HD counterpart $(|\Omega|/\Omega_{\odot})^{0.66})$, yielding a better agreement with the observational trends based on power laws. We find that for a fluid Rossby number between $0.15 \lesssim Ro_f \lesssim 0.65$ the solutions possess long magnetic cycle, if $Ro_f \lesssim 0.42$ a short cycle and if $Ro_f \gtrsim 1$ (anti-solar-like differential rotation) a statistically steady state. We show that short-cycle dynamos follow the classical Parker-Yoshimura rule whereas the long-cycle period ones do not. We further demonstrate that the Rossby number dependency of the large-scale surface magnetic field in the simulation ($B_{L,surf} \sim Ro_{f}^{-1.26}$) agrees better with observations ($B_{V} \sim Ro_{s}^{-1.4 \pm 0.1}$) and differs from dynamo scaling based on the global magnetic energy ($B_{bulk} \sim Ro_{f}^{-0.5}$). We also show that up to few percents of the stellar luminosity can be channelled into the star's magnetism, hence providing a large energy reservoir for possible surface eruptive events., Comment: 45 pages, 24 figures, 7 tables, 3 appendices, accepted by ApJ on 12/23/21, published on 02/03/22. (1) DAp/AIM, CEA/IRFU, CNRS/INSU, Univ. Paris-Saclay \& Univ. de Paris, France, (2) CMPA, KU Leuven, Belgium, (3) Universidad Carlos III de Madrid, Spain, (4) Dept. de physique, Univ. de Montr\'eal, Canada, (5) JILA and Dept. of Astrophysical and Planetary Sciences, University of Colorado, USA

Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) are known to modify the structure of the solar wind as well as interact with the space environment of planetary systems. Their large magnetic structures have been shown to interact with galactic cosmic rays, leading to the Forbush decrease (FD) phenomenon. We revisit in the present article the 17 years of Advanced Composition Explorer spacecraft ICME detection along with two neutron monitors (McMurdo and Oulu) with a superposed epoch analysis to further analyze the role of the magnetic ejecta in driving FDs. We investigate in the following the role of the sheath and the magnetic ejecta in driving FDs, and we further show that for ICMEs without a sheath, a magnetic ejecta only is able to drive significant FDs of comparable intensities. Furthermore, a comparison of samples with and without a sheath with similar speed profiles enable us to show that the magnetic field intensity, rather than its fluctuations, is the main driver for the FD. Finally, the recovery phase of the FD for isolated magnetic ejecta shows an anisotropy in the level of the GCRs. We relate this finding at 1 au to the gradient of the GCR flux found at different heliospheric distances from several interplanetary missions., Comment: 19 pages, 8 figures, accepted for publication in The Astrophysical Journal

We focus on the connection between the internal dynamo magnetic field and the stellar wind. If the star has a cyclic dynamo, the modulations of the magnetic field can affect the wind, which in turn can back-react on the boundary conditions of the star, creating a feedback loop. We have developed a 2.5-dimensional numerical set-up to model this essential coupling. We have implemented an alpha-Omega mean-field dynamo in the PLUTO code, and then coupled it to a spherical polytropic wind model via an interface composed of four grid layers with dedicated boundary conditions. We present here a dynamo model close to a young Sun with cyclic magnetic activity. First we show how this model allows to track the influence of the dynamo activity on the corona by displaying the correlation between the activity cycle, the coronal structure and the time evolution of integrated quantities. Then we add the feedback of the wind on the dynamo and discuss the changes observed in the dynamo symmetry and the wind variations. We explain these changes in terms of dynamo modes : in this parameter regime, the feedback loop leads to a coupling between the dynamo families via a preferred growth of the quadrupolar mode. We also study our interface in terms of magnetic helicity, and show that it leads to a small injection in the dynamo. This model confirms the importance of coupling physically internal and external stellar layers, as it has a direct impact on both the dynamo and the wind., Comment: 30 pages, 19 figures, accepted in the Astrophysical Journal

We study the behaviour and properties of the solar wind using a 2.5D Alfv\'en wave driven wind model. We first systematically compare the results of an Alfv\'en wave (AW) driven wind model with a polytropic approach. Polytropic magnetohydrodynamic wind models are thermally driven, while Alfv\'en waves act as additional acceleration and heating mechanisms in the Alfv\'en wave driven model. We confirm that an AW-driven model is required to reproduce the observed bimodality of slow and fast solar winds. We are also able to reproduce the observed anti-correlation between the terminal wind velocity and the coronal source temperature with the AW-driven wind model. We also show that the wind properties along an eleven-year cycle differ significantly from one model to the other. The AW-driven model again shows the best agreement with observational data. Indeed, solar surface magnetic field topology plays an important role in the Alfv\'en wave driven wind model, as it enters directly into the input energy sources via the Poynting flux. On the other hand, the polytropic wind model is driven by an assumed pressure gradient; thus it is relatively less sensitive to the surface magnetic field topology. Finally, we note that the net torque spinning down the Sun exhibits the same trends in the two models, showing that the polytropic approach still captures correctly the essence of stellar winds., Comment: 33 Pages, 16 Figures, Accepted in Astrophysical Journal

Cosmic rays (CRs) are tracers of solar events when they are associated with solar flares, but also galactic events when they come from outside our solar system. SEPs are correlated with the 11-year solar cycle while GCRs are anti-correlated due to their interaction with the heliospheric magnetic field and the solar wind. Our aim is to quantify separately the impact of the amplitude and the geometry of the magnetic field on the propagation of CRs of various energies in the inner heliosphere. We focus especially on the diffusion caused by the magnetic field along and across the field lines. To do so, we use the results of 3D MHD wind simulations running from the lower corona up to 1 AU. The wind is modeled using a polytropic approximation, and fits and power laws are used to account for the turbulence. Using these results, we compute the parallel and perpendicular diffusion coefficients of the Parker CR transport equation, yielding 3D maps of the diffusion of CRs in the inner heliosphere. By varying the amplitude of the magnetic field, we change the amplitude of the diffusion by the same factor, and the radial gradients by changing the spread of the current sheet. By varying the geometry of the magnetic field, we change the latitudinal gradients of diffusion by changing the position of the current sheets. By varying the energy, we show that the distribution of values for SEPs is more peaked than GCRs. For realistic solar configurations, we show that diffusion is highly non-axisymmetric due to the configuration of the current sheets, and that the distribution varies a lot with the distance to the Sun with a drift of the peak value. This study shows that numerical simulations and theory can help quantify better the influence of the various magnetic field parameters on the propagation of CRs. This study is a first step towards generating synthetic CR rates from numerical simulations., Comment: 29 pages, 12 figures, accepted for topical issue "Space climate: The past and future of solar activity" of Journal of Space Weather and Space Climate

Though generated deep inside the convection zone, the solar magnetic field has a direct impact on the Earth space environment via the Parker spiral. It strongly modulates the solar wind in the whole heliosphere, especially its latitudinal and longitudinal speed distribution over the years. However the wind also influences the topology of the coronal magnetic field by opening the magnetic field lines in the coronal holes, which can affect the inner magnetic field of the star by altering the dynamo boundary conditions. This coupling is especially difficult to model because it covers a large variety of spatio-temporal scales. Quasi-static studies have begun to help us unveil how the dynamo-generated magnetic field shapes the wind, but the full interplay between the solar dynamo and the solar wind still eludes our understanding. We use the compressible magnetohydrodynamical (MHD) code PLUTO to compute simultaneously in 2.5D the generation and evolution of magnetic field inside the star via an alpha-Omega dynamo process and the corresponding evolution of a polytropic coronal wind over several activity cycles for a young Sun. A multi-layered boundary condition at the surface of the star connects the inner and outer stellar layers, allowing both to adapt dynamically. Our continuously coupled dynamo-wind model allows us to characterize how the solar wind conditions change as a function of the cycle phase, and also to quantify the evolution of integrated quantities such as the Alfv\'en radius. We further assess the impact of the solar wind on the dynamo itself by comparing our results with and without wind feedback., Comment: 9 pages, 5 figures, IAUS 354

We want to study the connections between the magnetic field generated inside the Sun and the solar wind impacting Earth, especially the influence of north-south asymmetry on the magnetic and velocity fields. We study a solar-like 11-year cycle in a quasi-static way: an asymmetric dynamo field is generated through a 2.5-dimensional (2.5-D) flux-transport model with the Babcock-Leighton mechanism, and then is used as bottom boundary condition for compressible 2.5-D simulations of the solar wind. We recover solar values for the mass loss rate, the spin-down time scale and the Alfv\'en radius, and are able to reproduce the observed delay in latitudinal variations of the wind and the general wind structure observed for the Sun. We show that the phase lag between the energy of the dipole component and the total surface magnetic energy has a strong influence on the amplitude of the variations of global quantities. We show in particular that the magnetic torque variations can be linked to topological variations during a magnetic cycle, while variations in the mass loss rate appear to be driven by variations of the magnetic energy., Comment: 27 pages, 11 figures, Space Weather Special Issue

The formation of sunspots requires the concentration of magnetic flux near the surface. The negative magnetic pressure instability (NEMPI) might be a possible mechanism for accomplishing this, but it has mainly been studied in simple systems using an isothermal equation of state without a natural free surface. We study NEMPI in a stratified Cartesian mean-field model where turbulence effects are parameterized. We use an ideal equation of state and include radiation transport, which establishes selfconsistently a free surface. We use a Kramers-type opacity with adjustable exponents chosen such that the deeper layers are approximately isentropic. No convection is therefore possible in this model, allowing us to study NEMPI with radiation in isolation. We restrict ourselves to two-dimensional models. We use artificially enhanced mean-field coefficients to allow NEMPI to develop, making it therefore possible to study the reason why it is much harder to excite in the presence of radiation. NEMPI yields moderately strong magnetic flux concentrations a certain distance beneath the surface where optical depth is unity. The instability is oscillatory and in the form of upward travelling waves. This seems to be a new effect that has not been found in earlier models without radiative transport. The horizontal wavelength is about ten times smaller than what has been found previously in more idealized isothermal models. In our models, NEMPI saturates at field strengths too low to explain sunspots. Furthermore, the structures appear too narrow and too far beneath the surface to cause significant brightness variations at the radiative surface. We speculate that the failure to reproduce effects resembling sunspots may be related to the neglect of convection., Comment: 10 pages, 10 figures