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Early detection of hitchhiking pests requires the identification of strategic introduction points via transport. We propose a framework for achieving this in Europe using the Japanese beetle (Popillia japonica) as a case study. Human-mediated spread has been responsible for its introduction into several continents over the last century, including a recent introduction in continental Europe, where it is now listed as a priority pest. Furthermore, recent interceptions far from the infested area confirm the risk of unintentional transport within continental Europe. Here, we analysed how three modes of transport - air, rail and road - connect the infested area to the rest of Europe. We ranked all European regions from most to least reachable from the infested area. We identified border regions and distant major cities that are readily reachable and observed differences between modes. We propose a composite reachability index combining the three transport modes, which provides a valuable tool for designing a continental surveillance strategy and prioritising highly reachable regions, as demonstrated by recent interceptions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The evaluation of the potential for newly arrived species to survive and the determination whether a founder population can become established and subsequently spread and cause negative impacts are crucial considerations when performing a pest risk assessment in plant health. Climate change has clear consequences concerning the potential range of pests, and their potential for spread and impacts. Despite its importance, no guidance exists to support the evaluation of whether and how climate change should be incorporated into pest risk assessment. This paper reviews how climate change has been considered so far, not only in the area of pest risk assessment but also in other domains and provides guidance on how its incorporation could affect the overall assessment. Furthermore, from this analysis, some possible solutions for incorporating climate change into pest risk assessment are provided, taking into account that its outcomes have profound political, economic, social and environmental implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global trade in fresh fruit and vegetables, intensification of human mobility, and climate change facilitate fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) invasions. Life-history traits, environmental stress response, dispersal stress, and novel genetic admixtures contribute to their establishment and spread. Tephritids are among the most frequently intercepted taxa at ports of entry. In some countries, supported by the rules-based trade framework, a remarkable amount of biosecurity effort is being arrayed against the range expansion of tephritids. Despite this effort, fruit flies continue to arrive in new jurisdictions, sometimes triggering expensive eradication responses. Surprisingly, scant attention has been paid to biosecurity in the recent discourse about new multilateral trade agreements. Much of the available literature on managing tephritid invasions is focused on a limited number of charismatic (historically high-profile) species, and the generality of many patterns remains speculative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith), is an invasive pest threatening crop production and food security worldwide. High concerns are linked to the potential establishment of the species in Europe. The high migratory capacity of S. frugiperda causes concerns about the potential impacts of transient populations invading new areas from suitable hotspots. In the present work, we developed and used a physiologically-based demographic model to quantitatively assess the risks of S. frugiperda in Europe. The risks were assessed considering a best-, a median-, and a worst-case scenario. The Mediterranean coastal areas of Southern Europe resulted particularly suitable for the establishment of the species, with suitable areas reaching even higher latitudes, in the worst-case scenario. In Europe, up to four generations per year were predicted. The predicted yearly average number of moths per trap per week (± standard deviation) was 5 (± 4), 17 (± 5), and 139 (± 22) in the best, median-, and worst-case assessment scenarios, respectively. Model results showed that Southern and Central Europe up to the 48th parallel north might be exposed to the risk of transient populations. Depending on the latitude and on the period of arrival of the propagule, 1–2 transient generations per year might be expected. The model can be used to define strategies for reducing the risks of establishment of the pest at the country level. Predictions on the dynamics and phenology of the pest can also be used to support its management at the local level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting crops against pests is a major issue in the current agricultural production system. In particular, assessing the risk to crops can promote integrated pest management (IPM) strategies that encourage natural control mechanisms and advocate the use of pesticides as a last resort. In this study, we focused on wireworms, major soil-dwelling insect pests inflicting severe economic damage on various crops (including maize, potatoes and cereals) across Europe and North America. We have developed an original hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly accounts for biological knowledge and uncertainty in field observations, rather than relying solely on statistical correlations, to predict the level of wireworm infestation. The model was calibrated and validated using a substantial dataset originating from an agro-environmental survey carried out over three consecutive years (2012–2014) in France, which provides the wireworm abundance in 419 maize fields, together with information on the landscape context, field history, weather conditions, soil characteristics and farming practices associated to each field. Model outcomes show good agreement with current knowledge from literature and field expertise in terms of the effects of variables on wireworm abundance, and provide fairly good predictive capacity. Subsequently, the model was encapsulated as a software (R shiny application) to predict the risk of wireworm infestation in any field of interest, and can be used by farmers or agricultural advisors as a decision support system for the implementation of IPM strategies. The conceptual framework that we implemented can be adapted to a wide range of similar situations involving other crops and pests.

Ever-increasing global trade is one of the most important introduction pathways for plant pests. A diverse range of risk-reducing measures can be applied depending on the pest, the commodity and the import requirements. We used a review of over 1,800 risk reduction measures to extend a risk framework and menu of measures, previously developed for horticulture, to be applied to any commodity. We also reviewed how the efficacy of risk reduction measures is demonstrated, and assessed the maturity of the supporting science. We identified 39 unique risk reduction measures that were classified according to how they reduce risk. These were grouped under ten measure categories and four risk reduction objectives (minimising exposure to pest, minimising vulnerability of the commodity, reducing infestation rate and reducing establishment risk). These could then be applied against one or more consignment stages (production, post-production and post-border). Measures covered both commercial activities that reduce risk and may contribute to pest risk assessment, and regulated measures mandated to address unrestricted risk. Almost 90% of citations included measures that minimised exposure to pests or reduced infestation. Some measures were rarely reported, and some commodity classes had few measures associated with them, suggesting that available measures are being underutilised. Clear guidance was apparent for demonstrating efficacy of some measures (e.g., kill treatments), but lacking for many others. Compiling a 'menu of risk reduction measures' according to how they reduce risk, accompanied by clear guidelines for demonstrating efficacy, provides a robust basis for agreement between jurisdictions, and the further development, refinement and communication of efforts to both assess and manage the risk of global, trade-related pest movement. Agreement on how efficacy can be demonstrated for less utilised measures identified in this study will contribute to the further development of risk-based trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

EFSA pest categorisations and pest risk assessments include the assessment of the potential establishment of plant pests. Together with the presence of host plants, climate suitability analysis is an important element to analyse the likelihood of potential establishment of a pest in an area. One of the main approaches used in EFSA plant health risk assessment is the analysis based on climate classifications i.e. evidencing the occurrence of climates enhancing pest development and persistence in a specific area. SCAN‐Clim is a tool designed to support climate suitability analysis based on climate classifications. The current version is the first prototype of the tool, developed in the R language, currently used to support EFSA climate suitability analysis for pest categorisation and for quantitative pest risk assessment. Tested on over 34 EFSA works, SCAN‐Clim significantly improved the speed of climate suitability maps generation guaranteeing a standardised map format and providing documentation on input/outputs. Further improvements will include the development of an interactive web app accessible through the EFSA R4EU Portal (expected to be delivered in 2022). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract EFSA pest categorisations and pest risk assessments include the assessment of the potential establishment of plant pests. Together with the presence of host plants, climate suitability analysis is an important element to analyse the likelihood of potential establishment of a pest in an area. One of the main approaches used in EFSA plant health risk assessment is the analysis based on climate classifications i.e. evidencing the occurrence of climates enhancing pest development and persistence in a specific area. SCAN‐Clim is a tool designed to support climate suitability analysis based on climate classifications. The current version is the first prototype of the tool, developed in the R language, currently used to support EFSA climate suitability analysis for pest categorisation and for quantitative pest risk assessment. Tested on over 34 EFSA works, SCAN‐Clim significantly improved the speed of climate suitability maps generation guaranteeing a standardised map format and providing documentation on input/outputs. Further improvements will include the development of an interactive web app accessible through the EFSA R4EU Portal (expected to be delivered in 2022).

Understanding how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of crop pests is fundamental for the development and the implementation of pest management strategies. Here we present and apply a modelling framework assessing the non-linear physiological responses of the life-history strategies of the Mediterranean fruit fly (Ceratitis capitata, Wiedemann) to temperature. The model is used to explore how climate change might influence the distribution and abundance of this pest in Europe. We estimated the change in the distribution, abundance and activity of this species under current (year 2020) and future (years 2030 and 2050) climatic scenarios. The effects of climate change on the distribution, abundance and activity of C. capitata are heterogeneous both in time and in space. A northward expansion of the species, an increase in the altitudinal limit marking the presence of the species, and an overall increase in population abundance is expected in areas that might become more suitable under a changing climate. On the contrary, stable or reduced population abundances can be expected in areas where climate change leads to equally suitable or less suitable conditions. This heterogeneity reflects the contribution of both spatial variability in the predicted climatic patterns and non-linearity in the responses of the species' life-history strategies to temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The serious damages of Xylella fastidiosa (Xf) in Euro-Mediterranean countries (Italy, France, Spain) raise concerns for the Near East and North Africa (NENA). Therefore, a study was performed to: a) assess the risk of Xf entry, establishment and spread in target NENA countries (viz. Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, Libya, Morocco, Palestine, Syria, Tunisia); b) analyse risk perception and preparedness level among agri-food chain stakeholders; c) estimate potential socio-economic impacts for olives, grapes and citrus. Pest risk appraisal suggests that Morocco, Lebanon, Palestine and Syria are the most exposed to Xf risk; other target NENA countries, except Algeria, have intermediate risk. Risk perception analysis shows that governance efficacy and practices application can be improved by involving stakeholders and raising their awareness. Socio-economic impact assessment indicates declining yields, production, profitability, export, employment, and increasing import, with the highest impacts relating to olives, then citrus and grapes. The study suggests that the expected socioeconomic impacts are unacceptable and require urgent action against Xf at national and regional levels.

Plant pest risks posed by trade in agricultural commodities are managed through pest risk analysis which involves assessing risk and selecting phytosanitary measures to manage unrestricted risk if it is unacceptably high. Diverse measures can be used to reduce risk. However, calibrating risk management protocols with the level of unrestricted risk is challenging. Agreed methods and user-friendly tools for comparatively evaluating risk-reducing measures in different pest-host systems are lacking. Here, we describe the Pest Risk Reduction Scenario Tool (PRReSTo), a generic Bayesian network model that estimates likely infestation rates of host items in consignments. PRReSTo considers host items' vulnerability to pest infestation, the pest abundance to which host items are exposed during production, and the individual and cumulative effects of risk-reducing measures aimed at either minimising host vulnerability, pest exposure or infestation rates. We apply a PRReSTo implementation developed for assessing trappable insect pests in horticultural produce to test its versatility. First, we evaluate likely (unrestricted) host infestation rates under different levels of pest exposure and host vulnerability. Next, we evaluate the adequacy of risk-reducing measures under different host infestation scenarios and acceptability thresholds. We find that equivalent risk reduction may be achieved by highly effective individual measures or combinations of measures in a phytosanitary systems approach. The current implementation of PRReSTo is supported by an open access web application to facilitate adoption as a scenario analysis and decision-support tool by industry and regulators. • Here we present and test the new Pest Risk Reduction Scenario Tool (PRReSTo). • PRReSTo estimates likely infestation rates of host items in consignments. • PRReSTo allows for evaluating the individual or combined effects of risk-reducing measures. • The current implementation of PRReSTo is supported by an open access web application. • PRReSTo may support trading partners in trialling innovative risk-based protocols. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The risk posed by invasive alien species is determined primarily by two factors: distribution (occupancy) and abundance (density). However, most ecological studies use distribution data for monitoring and assessment programs, but few incorporate abundance data due to financial and logistical constraints. Failure to take into account invaders' abundance may lead to imprecise pest risk assessments. Since 2003 as part of the Annual Pest Distribution Survey (APDS) exercise in the state of Queensland, Australia, government biosecurity officials have collected data on distribution and abundance of more than 100 established and emerging weeds. This data acquisition was done at spatial grid sizes of 17–50 × 17–50 km and across a very broad and varied geographical land area of ~2 × 106 km2. The datasets provide an opportunity to compare weed dynamics at large-medium spatial scales. Analysis of the APDS datasets indicated that weed distributions were highest in regions along the southern and central, coastal parts of Queensland, and decreased in the less populated inland (i.e. western) and northern parts of the state. Weed abundance showed no discernible landscape or regional trends. Positive distribution–abundance relationships were also detected at multiple spatial scales. Using both traits of weed abundance and distribution, we derived a measure of invasion severity, and constructed, for several (64) weed species, 'space-for-time' invasion curves. State-wide and in each of Queensland's 10 regions, we also categorised the invasion stages of these weeds. At the grassroots of local government area or regional levels, the derived invasion curves and stage categories can provide policy direction for long-term management planning of Queensland's priority weeds. We examined distribution and abundance of major weeds in Queensland, Australia, and constructed invasion curves at intermediate–lower spatial scales. Our work provides the first state-wide and regional-level invasion stage-categorisation, and spread patterns of weeds in Queensland. The findings serve as input into policy, management and research directions of Queensland's prioritised weeds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to prevent and control the emergence of biosecurity threats such as vector-borne diseases of plants, it is vital to understand drivers of entry, establishment, and spatiotemporal spread, as well as the form, timing, and effectiveness of disease management strategies. An inherent challenge for policy in combatting emerging disease is the uncertainty associated with intervention planning in areas not yet affected, based on models and data from current outbreaks. Following the recent high-profile emergence of the bacterium Xylella fastidiosa in a number of European countries, we review the most pertinent epidemiological uncertainties concerning the dynamics of this bacterium in novel environments. To reduce the considerable ecological and socio-economic impacts of these outbreaks, eco-epidemiological research in a broader range of environmental conditions needs to be conducted and used to inform policy to enhance disease risk assessment, and support successful policy-making decisions. By characterizing infection pathways, we can highlight the uncertainties that surround our knowledge of this disease, drawing attention to how these are amplified when trying to predict and manage outbreaks in currently unaffected locations. To help guide future research and decision-making processes, we invited experts in different fields of plant pathology to identify data to prioritize when developing pest risk assessments. Our analysis revealed that epidemiological uncertainty is mainly driven by the large variety of hosts, vectors, and bacterial strains, leading to a range of different epidemiological characteristics further magnified by novel environmental conditions. These results offer new insights on how eco-epidemiological analyses can enhance understanding of plant disease spread and support management recommendations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Xylella fastidiosa is the causal agent of plant diseases that cause massive economic damage. In 2013, a strain of the bacterium was, for the first time, detected in the European territory (Italy), causing the Olive Quick Decline Syndrome. We simulate future spread of the disease based on climatic-suitability modeling and radial expansion of the invaded territory. An economic model is developed to compute impact based on discounted foregone profits and losses in investment. The model projects impact for Italy, Greece, and Spain, as these countries account for around 95% of the European olive oil production. Climatic suitability modeling indicates that, depending on the suitability threshold, 95.5 to 98.9%, 99.2 to 99.8%, and 84.6 to 99.1% of the national areas of production fall into suitable territory in Italy, Greece, and Spain, respectively. For Italy, across the considered rates of radial range expansion the potential economic impact over 50 y ranges from 1.9 billion to 5.2 billion Euros for the economic worst-case scenario, in which production ceases after orchards die off. If replanting with resistant varieties is feasible, the impact ranges from 0.6 billion to 1.6 billion Euros. Depending on whether replanting is feasible, between 0.5 billion and 1.3 billion Euros can be saved over the course of 50 y if disease spread is reduced from 5.18 to 1.1 km per year. The analysis stresses the necessity to strengthen the ongoing research on cultivar resistance traits and application of phytosanitary measures, including vector control and inoculum suppression, by removing host plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting shifts in the distribution and abundance of pest organisms relies on an accurate forecasting of their response to climate change. The oak processionary moth (OPM) Thaumetopoea processionea causes serious damages to oak trees in forest, urban and other landscapes as well as severe allergic reactions to humans and animals. In the 1990's and 2000's, the OPM extended its range from mainland Europe and the Middle East into northern Europe. In 2005, it was also accidentally introduced in the United Kingdom. Moreover, the intensity and the frequency of OPM outbreaks are thought to have recently increased in several countries of Europe including Belgium, the Netherlands, Germany and Austria. In the present study, we aimed at forecasting the potential distribution of the OPM in Europe under current and future climate conditions. We thoroughly compiled available records of established populations all across Europe and fitted MaxEnt and BIOCLIM models to infer bioclimatic requirements for this species. Both models showed good predictive performance under current climate conditions. In particular, the surroundings of London where the OPM recently got established were predicted as highly climatically suitable. Models also predicted that many parts of northern Europe where the OPM currently does not occur (e.g. central UK, Wales, Ireland, southern Scotland, Denmark, southern part of the Scandinavian Peninsula, etc.) might become climatically suitable by 2050. Our predictions warrant the need for proper communication and management planning around the risks associated with the potential expansion of the OPM in Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) is the process of evaluation for biological and economic evidences in order to determine whether a pest should be regulated under phyto-sanitary measures. The present mini review highlights the potential potato pathogen list recorded in Nepal harmful for potato production and productivity. At global scale altogether 135 potential quarantine pests (PQP) for potato has been recorded, while in Nepal only 92 PQP were recorded. Out of those 52, 13 and 27 were fungi, bacteria and viruses respectively. Among the 92 PQP, 34, 30 and 13 were considered at high, medium and lower risk type pathogens for potato. There was no information available on other 15 PQP.

Managing and monitoring invasive alien species (IAS) is costly, and because resources are limited, prioritization decisions are required for planning and management. We present findings on plant pest prioritization for 63 established invader species of natural and grazing ecosystems of Queensland, Australia. We used an expert elicitation approach to assess risk (species occurrence, spread, and impact) and feasibility of control for each IAS. We elicit semi-quantitative responses from diverse expert stakeholders to score IAS on three management approaches (biocontrol, chemical and mechanical) in relation to cost, effectiveness and practicality, and incorporate uncertainty in expert inputs and model outputs. In the process, we look for promising management opportunities as well as seek general trends across species' ecological groups and management methods. Stakeholders were cautiously optimistic about the feasibility of managing IAS. Taking into consideration all factors, the overall feasibility of control was uncorrelated with the stakeholders' level of confidence. However, within individual management criterion, positive trend was observed for the same bivariate traits for chemical control, and negative trends for biocontrol and mechanical controls. Utility and confidence in IAS management options were in the order: chemical > biocontrol = mechanical, with practicality and effectiveness being the main driver components. Management feasibility differed significantly between IAS life forms but not between habitats invaded. Lastly, we combined IAS risk assessment and management feasibility scores to create a risk matrix to guide policy goals (i.e. eradication, spread containment, protection of sensitive sites, targeted control, site management, monitoring, and limited action). The matrix identifies promising species to target for each of these policy outcomes. Overall, our general approach illustrates (i) the importance of understanding the feasibility of IAS control actions and the factors that drive it, and (ii) demonstrates how quantifying management feasibility can be used to enhance traditional risk assessment rankings to improve policy outcomes. • Managing invasive alien species (e.g. weeds) is costly, so prioritization is needed. • Experts assessed feasibility of control methods for weeds of Queensland, Australia. • Chemical control was most effective, followed by biological and mechanical controls. • Practicality and effectiveness were the drivers of control feasibility, not the cost. • Results are linked to on-ground decision actions using a risk assessment matrix. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: We present a novel strategy for species distribution models (SDMs) aimed at predicting the potential distributions of range‐expanding invasive non‐native species (INNS). The strategy combines two established perspectives on defining the background region for sampling "pseudo‐absences" that have hitherto only been applied separately. These are the accessible area, which accounts for dispersal constraints, and the area outside the environmental range of the species and therefore assumed to be unsuitable for the species. We tested an approach to combine these by fitting SDMs using background samples (pseudo‐absences) from both types of background. Location: Global. Taxon: Invasive non‐native plants: Humulus scandens, Lygodium japonicum, Lespedeza cuneata, Triadica sebifera, Cinnamomum camphora. Methods: Presence‐background (or presence‐only) SDMs were developed for the potential global distributions of five plant species native to Asia, invasive elsewhere and prioritised for risk assessment as emerging INNS in Europe. We compared models where the pseudo‐absences were selected from the accessible background, the unsuitable background (defined using biological knowledge of the species' key limiting factors) or from both types of background. Results: Combining the unsuitable and accessible backgrounds expanded the range of environments available for model fitting and caused biological knowledge about ecological unsuitability to influence the fitted species‐environment relationships. This improved the realism and accuracy of distribution projections globally and, generally, within the species' ranges. Main conclusions: Correlative SDMs remain valuable for INNS risk mapping and management, but are often criticised for a lack of biological underpinning. Our approach partly addresses this concern by using prior knowledge of species' requirements or tolerances to define the unsuitable background for modelling, while also accommodating dispersal constraints through considerations of accessibility. It can be implemented with current SDM software and results in more accurate and realistic distribution projections. As such, wider adoption has potential to improve SDMs that support INNS risk assessment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine wood nematode (PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, causes pine wilt disease (PWD) in Pinus species given suitable climatic conditions. A model was run for Germany to assess the potential that Pinus sylvestris trees succumb to pine wilt once B. xylophilus has been introduced. The following climate scenarios have been modelled: current climatic conditions, an exceptional hot year (2003) and two future climatic conditions with target year 2050 for low (B1) and middle (A1B) emission scenarios based on the IPCC classification. Additional parameters included in the model were nematode inoculum, time of infestation and tree physiological conditions (healthy ors stressed). Under the current climatic conditions, P. sylvestris would not develop PWD assuming that trees are healthy. However, water-stressed trees in the river Rhine area south-west of Germany may succumb to PWD in the current climate. Climatic conditions like those experienced in 2003 would support the expression of PWD in healthy trees in the south of Germany and in almost the whole of Germany if the trees are stressed. Predicted future temperature increases up to 2050 under both emission scenarios will lead to more stress, placing extensive areas of Germany at risk of PWD, including the north-eastern part where Pinus sylvestris is the dominant tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last decade, an extraordinary policy effort has been put in place to reduce the use of chemical plant protection products (PPPs) in French agriculture. This was done through a National Action Plan called Ecophyto which is the French response to the EU Framework Directive on the sustainable use of PPPs. The change in crop protection, required to meet the ambitious goal of Ecophyto, has generated three major research needs: first, exploration of new fields of knowledge (e.g., links between cropping systems, biodiversity and pest regulation), second, support of the unprecedented devices (e.g., pest monitoring system and farm network) put in place to accompany the transition phase, and third, reconsideration of issues related to pest management methods in the context of the changes of farming practices promoted by Ecophyto. To address these new research needs, Ecophyto has devoted a specific research and innovation (R&I) axis which prioritized relevant research questions covering eight thematic areas: (i) pest monitoring and decision-making, (ii) design of IPM solutions, (iii) diversification of pest control methods, (iv) durability and sustainability of these methods, (v) socio-economic aspects of the transition toward a low-input crop protection system, (vi) contribution of public policy for such a transition, (vii) development of indicators to assess the use and impacts of chemical PPPs, and (viii) effects on human health due to exposure to chemical PPPs. The resulting scientific program was disseminated through a diversity of calls for proposals which vastly mobilized public research, in partnership with agricultural experimentation networks and private research. This initiative has translated into dynamic and significant advances made by research which, in part, are already discernible. It will eventually produce a corpus of scientific knowledge and technical innovations which can contribute to the expected transition toward a low-input crop protection system, as long as farmers are associated in the design of sustainable IPM solutions and other concerned stakeholders of the sociotechnical system are mobilized. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract A model was developed to improve pest risk assessments and to better advise risk managers and policy makers on the relative importance of the pathways of pest entry and the strength of measures to be taken on each. The model computes the probability of the transfer of insect or mite pests from traded commodities to hosts at sites suitable for establishment. The probability is calculated from arrival of the pest on imported produce (cut flowers/branches, fruits or vegetables), up-to-and-including first egg laying, and taking into account any necessary development of the pest to a suitably mobile stage. Three case studies, Helicoverpa armigera on Rosa cut flowers, Thrips palmi on Solanum fruit and Rhagoletis mendax on Vaccinium fruit, are explained in detail. Probabilities were estimated for nine variables from which a joint probability, the probability of transfer, was calculated for each of the species–product combinations and trade chain scenarios. Although the probabilities were expressions of expert belief, rather than empirically derived, the resulting large differences in outcomes between the cases gave greater discrimination of relative risk than more qualitative approaches. The model helps to identify pest and trade-chain characteristics that are most limiting to transfer and so highlights the importance of these characteristics for future assessments. For pests that arrive as immature stages that are relatively immobile, development into an adult was identified as an important limiting factor especially for pests with a long lifecycle in relation to the shelf life of the product. For pests that have a limited dispersal ability the proximity to a suitable site was an important factor. Pests that arrive as adults, or can rapidly attain adulthood, and that can establish close to the destination of the produce are therefore a particular biosecurity concern. Highlights • A model is presented to calculate the probability of transfer of pests from produce. • The absence of an adult or other mobile stage strongly limited transfer probability. • The proximity to a suitable habitat strongly increased the probability of transfer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Trade of plant material poses a potential risk for accidental introductions of alien pests. Despite prevention and control measures, many exotic species have been unintentionally introduced into the Italian peninsula in the last decades. From April 2016 to March 2019, infested wood material from several areas of the USA was intercepted by phytosanitary authorities at the port of Livorno (Tuscany, Italy). The longhorn beetle Saperda tridentata was detected in six shipments containing heavily infested elm logs (Ulmus rubra) with bark. All the interceptions were made thanks to a national monitoring network including the Italian Ministry of Agriculture and Forests (MIPAAF), the Regional Phytosanitary Services, the Research Centre for Plant Protection and Certification (CREA-DC) and other Italian scientific institutions. Our findings suggest that monitoring of timber shipments should be further developed not only at the entry ports but also, and particularly, in the countries of origin. Moreover, a shift in phytosanitary policies such as introducing mandatory wood treatments (e.g. debarking, fumigation or heat treatments) prior to shipment would be advisable as it could drastically reduce introductions of alien pests and streamline all inspection procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surveying multiple invasive pest species at the same time can help reduce the cost of detecting new pest invasions. In this paper, we describe a new method for mapping the relative likelihood of pest invasion via plant propagation material in a geographic setting. The method simulates the invasion of a range of pest species, including arrival in an uninvaded area, spread, and survival in a novel landscape, using information on the spatial and temporal distribution of the suitable host crop species and tentative knowledge of the spread and survival capacities of the target pests. The methodology is applied to a gridded map in which each map cell represents a site in a landscape. The method uses stochastic simulations to depict plausible realizations of the invasion outcomes and estimate the distribution of pest invasion likelihood for each cell in the area of concern. The method then prioritizes the cells based on the stochastic invasion outcomes using a pairwise stochastic dominance rule and a hypervolume indicator. We demonstrate the approach by assessing the relative likelihood of pest invasion for strawberry production in Finland. Our method helps to differentiate sites in a landscape using both the estimates of pest invasion risk and their uncertainty. It can be applied to prioritize sites for plant health surveys and allocate survey resources among large geographic regions. The approach is generalizable and can be used in situations where knowledge of the harmful pest species is poor or nonexistent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Liriomyza huidobrensis (Blanchard) is an economically important and highly polyphagous worldwide pest. To establish a temperature-dependent phenology model, essential for understanding the development and growth of the pest population under a variety of climates and as part of a pest risk analysis, L. huidobrensis life-table data were collected under laboratory conditions at seven constant temperatures on its host faba bean (Vicia faba L.). Several nonlinear equations were fitted to each life stage to model the temperature-dependent population growth and species life history and finally compile an overall temperature-dependent pest phenology model using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling (ILCYM) software. Liriomyza huidobrensis completed development from egg to adult in all temperatures evaluated, except at 32 °C, which was lethal to pupae. Eggs did not develop at 35 °C. Mean development time of all immature stages decreased with increasing temperature. Nonlinear models predicted optimal temperature for immature survival between 20-25 °C (32-38% mortality of all immature stages). Life-table parameters simulated at constant temperatures indicated that L. huidobrensis develops within the range of 12-28 °C. Simulated life-table for predicting the population dynamics of L. huidobrensis under two contrasting environments showed that lowland temperatures at the coast of Peru (250 m.a.s.l.) presented better conditions for a potential population increase than highland (3,400 m.a.s.l.) conditions. The presented model linked with Geographic Information Systems will allow pest risk assessments in different environmental regions to support the regulation of pest movement to prevent pest entry into not-yet invaded regions as well as to implement effective management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pest risk assessment (PRA) comprises a set of quantitative and qualitative tools to protect productive ecosystems from the impacts of unwanted biological invasions., Self-organizing maps for pest profile analysis (SOM PPA) is a methodological approach aimed to support PRA. It is based on cluster analysis and extracts information out of current distributions of insect crop pests world-wide, allowing the analyst to generate a list of potential risk species for a target region., Self-organizing maps for pest profile analysis currently lacks of a measure of performance able to provide a level of confidence for its outputs., In this study, we investigate ζ diversity as an ecologically meaningful and generalizable metric of similarity. The application of ζ allowed us to quantify and thus reveal different levels of similarity across pest profiles., The use of ζ diversity applied to the SOM PPA provides an informative measure of uncertainty for the output of SOM PPA, thus adding major improvements to the methodology while only marginally increasing its complexity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present review aims to identify the phytosanitary risk, the dissemination pathways and the possible control methods of Aceria kuko, the goji-berries gall mite, which was imported to Europe from China via orders by mail in 2007. Despite the first eradicative measures taken by the UK in 2008 and Germany in 2011, the pest was found again in Germany (2012), in Slovenia (2012), in Cyprus (2013), in Romania (2013), in Hungary (2014) and in Serbia (2015). Although the import of Solanaceae intended for planting is prohibited in Europe, the parcels ordered by mail escape the pest and disease control services. Our field observations regarding the attack frequency, attack intensity and the losses indicate that Aceria kuko is a potential threat for goji growers. Monitoring the presence of the mite in the Romanian Goji plantations should therefore be regarded as a biosafety measure not only for Romania, but for entire Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The risk of introducing weeds to new areas through grain (cereals, oilseeds and pulses) intended for processing or consumption is typically considered less than that from seed or plants for planting. However, within the range of end uses for grain, weed risk varies significantly and should not be ignored. In this paper, we discuss pathway risk analysis as a framework to examine the association of weed seeds with grain commodities throughout the production process from field to final end use, and present inspection sampling data for grain crops commonly imported to Canada. In the field, weed seed contamination of grain crops is affected by factors such as country of origin, climate, biogeography and production and harvesting practices. As it moves toward export, grain is typically cleaned at a series of elevators and the effectiveness and degree of cleaning are influenced by grain size, shape and density as well as by grade requirements. In cases where different grain lots are blended, uncertainty may be introduced with respect to the species and numbers of weed seed contaminants. During transport and storage, accidental spills and cross-contamination among conveyances may occur. At the point of import to Canada, inspection sampling data show that grain shipments contain a variety of contaminants including seeds of regulated weeds and species that represent new introductions. However, grain cleaning and processing methods tailored to end use at destination also affect the presence and viability of weed seeds. For example, grains that are milled or crushed for human use present a lower risk of introducing weed seeds to new environments than grains that undergo minimal or no processing for livestock feed, or screenings that are produced as a by-product of grain cleaning. Pathway risk analysis allows each of these stages to be evaluated in order to characterize the overall risk of introducing weeds with particular commodities, and guide regulatory decisions about trade and plant health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) is a science-based process for determining the likelihood and magnitude of pest risks and evaluating options for mitigating them. Pest Risk Analysis is used by national plant protection organizations (NPPOs) to support phytosanitary decision-making. The design of a PRA process reflects an NPPO's policy on risk, whereas the content or data that informs the PRA process is a reflection of its use of science. A well-designed and implemented PRA process can serve as a bridge between science and policy and inform decision-making. The Canadian Food Inspection Agency (CFIA) has undertaken steps to integrate its pest risk assessment and pest risk management processes in ways that improve efficiency and transparency while continuing to preserve the scientific integrity of the science advice under-pinning the design of its plant protection programs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hive beetles Oplostomus fuligineus Olivier, 1789 and Oplostomus haroldi Witte, 1880 (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) predate on Apis mellifera Linnaeus, 1758 brood and are considered pests in southern and eastern Africa respectively. However, little is known about their biology and potential to expand to other geographic areas. This study uses a Pest Risk Analysis (PRA) scheme to assess the hazard the two Scarabid beetles possess to European beekeeping. The risk of entry and establishment in the European Union is evaluated as is their potential economic impact. For this purpose, the information about the species ecology, current distribution and Apis mellifera pest status are revised. It is concluded that, although the pest status of the species may be limited in Africa, it may be prudent to implement measures that would avoid the future possible introduction of the pest into Europe. Our knowledge on Oplostomus fuligineus and Oplostomus haroldi biology are minimal. It is vital that more information on the Scarabids ecology, especially on its possible alternative hosts and control, is gathered in order to prevent their introduction to Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for the grapevine insect pest, Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (an aphid species commonly known as phylloxera), in the European Union, identified risk reduction options and evaluated the effectiveness of the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry was assessed as potentially very likely for plants intended for planting (although the pathway is closed by Article 15 of Annex III) and very unlikely for fruit for consumption because transport and transfer would be very difficult, even though phylloxera has a moderate likelihood of association with the pathway. Establishment is very likely as the pest is already very widespread in the risk assessment area, occurring almost everywhere Vitis plants are present. Successful eradication is very unlikely and small populations can persist undetected in the soil. Spread within the EU is considered to be very likely because there are no effective barriers, it can disperse up to a few kilometres aided by the wind and it can readily be moved long distances with planting material. Grafting with resistant rootstocks throughout the EU ensures that the production of fruit and plants for planting is rarely affected by phylloxera infestations and, if so, only at a limited level. The Panel considers that the IIAII measures for D. vitifoliae do not assist in preventing entry and are ineffective in preventing spread because detection is so difficult. Restricting movements of plants for planting to cuttings grafted on resistant rootstocks, in combination with treatments (e.g. particularly fungicides and hot water treatments), was found to be the most effective risk reduction option. Limitations in the Cyprus protected zone regulations were identified.

The Panel conducted a pest risk assessment for Xanthomonas campestris (all strains pathogenic to Citrus) for the EU territory and an assessment of the effectiveness of present EU requirements against Xanthomonas strains pathogenic to citrus. The risk assessment was conducted under the scenario of absence of the current specific EU plant health legislation and the assumption that citrus-exporting countries apply measures to reduce yield and quality losses. Risk reduction options were systematically identified and evaluated. The strains of X. campestris pathogenic to citrus have been reclassified as four distinct infraspecific taxa within two species: X. citri and X. alfalfae. Only two pathovars (X. citri pv. citri and X. citri pv. aurantifolii) are responsible for the citrus bacterial canker thatpresents a major risk for the citrus industry in the EU. Seven entry pathways have been identified and evaluated. The likelihood of entry was rated unlikely for fruit, very likely for fruit plants for planting, moderately likely for ornamental plants for planting and unlikely for leaves and twigs. The uncertainty of probability of entry was rated as high. The probability of establishment was rated as moderately likely to likely with a medium uncertainty because host plants are widely present in EU areas where environmental conditions are suitable. Once established, spread would be likely with a low uncertainty. The impact of the disease, even if control measures are applied, was rated as moderate to major with a medium uncertainty. The disease would cause yield losses in areas where citrus is the main crop, increase the need for control measures and create environmental problems.The combined EU regulations have been shown to be effective in preventing the introduction of X. citri pv. citri or X. citri pv. aurantifolii in the EU, as no outbreaks of citrus canker in the EU territory have been reported.

The Panel conducted a risk assessment of Phyllosticta citricarpa for the EU. P. citricarpa causes citrus black spot (CBS) and is absent from the EU. Under the scenario of absence of specific risk reduction options against P. citricarpa, the risk of entry of P. citricarpa was rated as likely for citrus plants for planting and citrus fruit with leaves, moderately likely for citrus fruit without leaves, unlikely for citrus leaves for cooking and very unlikely for Tahiti lime fruit without leaves. Establishment was rated as moderately likely because susceptible hosts are widely available and environmental conditions in many EU citrus-growing areas are suitable (with high uncertainty) for P. citricarpa ascospore production, dispersal and infection. Current fungicide treatments will not prevent establishment. Environmental favourability is increased by the use of sprinkler and micro-sprinkler irrigation in some EU citrus-growing locations. Spread with trade was rated as moderately likely. Model results indicate that CBS epidemics are most likely to develop in EU citrus-growing areas in late summer to early autumn and in some locations also in late spring to early summer. CBS is expected to affect mainly lemons and late-maturing sweet orange and mandarin varieties, with moderate negative consequences for the production of fresh fruit, but with environmental impact of additional fungicide treatments. Negative consequences would be minor for early-maturing citrus varieties and minimal for citrus for processing. Uncertainty concerning the consequences is high, mainly because of the lack of data on critical climate response parameters for the pathogen but also because information on impact in areas at the limits of the current distribution is scarce. Since eradication and containment are difficult, phytosanitary measures should focus on preventing entry. Current phytosanitary measures are evaluated to be effective, with the exception of pest-free production sites.

The Panel on Plant Health assessed the risk to plant health from Phytophthora fragariae for the European Union and evaluated the current EU legislation and possible risk reduction options. The pest is present in most areas of Europe except southern Mediterranean regions. Entry through the plants for planting, but not seeds, pathway, is assessed as a major pathway, with the probability of entry rated as unlikely and the uncertainty as high. The probability of establishment is likely in the absence of existing disease control practices with low uncertainty. The probability of spread in the absence of a scheme for the production of certified plants for planting is considered to be very likely. With certification, spread is considered to be unlikely to moderately likely, depending on the inclusion of testing for the pathogen as part of certification. These ratings have medium uncertainty. Potential impact is rated as minor with medium uncertainty. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU legislation regarding the introduction and spread of P. fragariae. According to the regulation the import of Fragaria plants for planting, other than seeds, is prohibited from specified countries, whereas for import of these plants from other countries and for movement of these plants within the EU special requirements with respect to P. fragariae must be fulfilled. If the current legislation specific to P. fragariae were removed, no major consequences would be expected, unless the industry simultaneously ceased its voluntary certification activity. This is largely because of the important level of protection afforded to the industry by the widely used certification schemes for Fragaria, which significantly reduce the risks of entry, establishment, spread and impact. Certification schemes for the movement of Fragaria plants for planting offer the greatest efficiency and feasibility and the least uncertainty, especially if effective detection is incorporated into them.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Eutetranychus orientalis in the European Union (EU) and evaluated the effectiveness of phytosanitary measures in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry through the plants for planting pathway is assessed as very likely, while entry through other pathways is estimated as moderately likely to unlikely owing to the different probability of transfer to a suitable host. Establishment is rated as very likely in Mediterranean areas and from moderately likely to unlikely in non-Mediterranean areas, because of unfavourable environmental conditions. Spread is rated as very likely because of the many ways the pest can spread, its polyphagy and the wide distribution of hosts. Impact is rated as minor, with an expected increase in the damage when populations of natural enemies are severely affected by control measures and/or when environmental conditions are stressful for the host. However, the lack of information resulted in an overall medium level of uncertainty. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU phytosanitary measures and concluded that the removal of E. orientalis from Annex IIAII would not affect its probability of entry, because the importation from Third countries of some host plants regulated for this pest(Citrus, Fortunella, Poncirus species and their hybrids) is prohibited in Annex III. However, spread could be affected since there would no longer be a requirement to inspect for this pest before issuing a plant passport (Annex V). However, since the regulated Rutaceae species constitute an extremely small proportion of the potential host plants of E. orientalis, the current phytosanitary measures are mostly ineffective in preventing further introduction and spread of E. orientalis in the EU. The Panel identified surveillance at the production site and treatment of the consignment as the most effective and technically feasible risk reduction options, particularly when applied together.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Parasaissetia nigra in the European Union (EU) and identified and evaluated the phytosanitary measures listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. Entry through the principal pathways is assessed as moderately likely for plants for planting and very unlikely for living parts of plants, such as fruit and cut flowers with foliage, the discrepancy being mainly due to the difference in probability of transfer to a suitable host. Establishment is rated as very likely outdoors in Mediterranean areas and indoors in the whole risk assessment area (where the pest has been present for a long time), and unlikely outdoors in non-Mediterranean areas. Spread within the EU is considered to be moderately likely because the pest can readily be moved with plant material but is limited by climatic conditions. The magnitude of the potential consequences is rated as minor. The Panel evaluated the effectiveness of current EU phytosanitary measures and concluded that the removal of P. nigra from Annex IIAII would not affect its probability of entry, because the importation from Third countries of some host plants regulated for P. nigra (Citrus, Fortunella, Poncirus species and their hybrids) is prohibited in Annex III. However, spread could be affected since there would no longer be a requirement to inspect for this pest before issuing a plant passport (Annex V). However, since the regulated Rutaceae species constitute only a very small proportion of the potential host plants of P. nigra,the current phytosanitary measures are mostly ineffective in preventing the further introduction and spread of P. nigra in the EU. The Panel identified surveillance at the production site and treatment of the consignment as the most effective and technically feasible risk reduction options, particularly when in combination.

The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Bemisia tabaci and the viruses it transmits, including an evaluation of risk reduction options and an assessment of the effectiveness of the special requirements linked to B. tabaci and the viruses listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. B. tabaci and a large number of viruses transmitted by this polyphagous insect occur in subtropical and tropical climates around the world. Five entry pathways for B. tabaci and associated viruses were identified, with the plants for planting pathway being most significant and rated for entry of insects and viruses as likely and moderately likely, respectively. The most invasive B. tabaci species and several of its associated viruses responsible for severe diseases in major European food crops are established outdoors in coastal Mediterranean regions. Because of similar climate requirements and host plant preferences, B. tabaci and associated viruses currently not present in Europe are likely to establish within the temperature limits set for B. tabaci. Trade between European Member States allows B. tabaci to reach greenhouses in northern Europe, including those in areas with protected zone status. Because of the cool climate, establishment and spread outdoors of B. tabaci is rated unlikely for northern Europe. This situation is likely to continue even under a climatic scenario with an increase in temperature of +2 °C. B. tabaci -transmitted viruses cause severe diseases with major negative impact on crop production when risk reduction measures are not used. Risk reduction options will also apply to B. tabaci and viruses new to Europe. Risk reductions options are evaluated in terms of reducing B. tabaci populations, crop infestations, virus incidence and the impact of diseases. © European Food Safety Authority, 2013