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Wildfires are landscape scale disturbances that can significantly affect hydrologic processes such as runoff generation and sediment and nutrient transport to streams. In Fall 2016, multiple large drought‐related wildfires burned forests across the southern Appalachian Mountains. Immediately after the fires, we identified and instrumented eight 28.4–344 ha watersheds (four burned and four unburned) to measure vegetation, soil, water quantity, and water quality responses over the following two years. Within burned watersheds, plots varied in burn severity with up to 100% tree mortality and soil O‐horizon loss. Watershed scale high burn severity extent ranged from 5% to 65% of total watershed area. Water quantity and quality responses among burned watersheds were closely related to the high burn severity extent. Total water yield (Q) was up to 39% greater in burned watersheds than unburned reference watersheds. Total suspended solids (TSS) concentration during storm events were up to 168 times greater in samples collected from the most severely burned watershed than from a corresponding unburned reference watershed, suggesting that there was elevated risk of localized erosion and sedimentation of streams. NO₃‐N concentration, export, and concentration dependence on streamflow were greater in burned watersheds and increased with increasing high burn severity extent. Mean NO₃‐N concentration in the most severely burned watershed increased from 0.087 mg L⁻¹ in the first year to 0.363 mg L⁻¹ (+317%) in the second year. These results suggest that the 2016 wildfires degraded forest condition, increased Q, and had negative effects on water quality particularly during storm events.

Potential impacts of climate change on the position of the wetland-hydrology boundary were estimated for four sites in the Eastern U.S. Precipitation and temperature predictions were obtained from the Hadley general circulation model (UKMO-HadCM3) because it most closely approximated observed precipitation for the period 1950–2000. The DRAINMOD hydrologic model was used to compute daily water table levels over two time periods: 1983–2012 (current conditions) and 2041–2070 (future conditions). For each site and time period, the model simulated water table depths for a soil pedon (Typic Paleaquult) that previous work demonstrated was on the wetland-hydrology boundary. Results for the Pitt County site in NC showed that by 2070 the wetland-hydrology boundary would have moved “downhill” to a point that was approximately 17 cm lower in elevation than where the boundary was in 2012 due to a 20% increase in evapotranspiration. Similar analyses were done for hypothetical wetland soils in Miami FL, Easton MD, and Portland ME where the wetland hydrology boundaries were estimated to drop in elevation by 5, 10 and 25 cm, respectively. Our results demonstrated that climate change may have significant impact on wetland boundaries.

Human consumption of freshwater is now approaching or surpassing the rate at which water sources are being naturally replenished in many regions, creating water shortage risks for people and ecosystems. Here we assess the impact of human water uses and their connection to water scarcity and ecological damage across the United States, identify primary causes of river dewatering and explore ways to ameliorate them. We find irrigation of cattle-feed crops to be the greatest consumer of river water in the western United States, implicating beef and dairy consumption as the leading driver of water shortages and fish imperilment in the region. We assess opportunities for alleviating water scarcity by reducing cattle-feed production, finding that temporary, rotational fallowing of irrigated feed crops can markedly reduce water shortage risks and improve ecological sustainability. Long-term water security and river ecosystem health will ultimately require Americans to consume less beef that depends on irrigated feed crops. Water use in river basins is an age-old resource-management question, but it is rare to quantify consumption by specific sectors. The Colorado River is being overused for beef and dairy production, endangering the entire river ecosystem.

Sediment load in rivers is recognized as both a carrier and a potential source of contaminants. Sediment deposition significantly changes river flow and morphology, thereby affecting stream hydrology and aquatic life. We projected sediment load from the Pearl River basin (PRB), Mississippi into the northern Gulf of Mexico under a future climate with afforestation using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool)-based HAWQS (Hydrologic and Water Quality System) model. Three simulation scenarios were developed in this study: (1) the past scenario for estimating the 40-year sediment load from 1981 to 2020; (2) the future scenario for projecting the 40-year sediment load from 2025 to 2064, and (3) the future afforestation scenario that was the same as the future scenario, except for converting the rangeland located in the middle section of the Pearl River watershed of the PRB into the mixed forest land cover. Simulations showed a 16% decrease in sediment load for the future scenario in comparison to the past scenario due to the decrease in future surface runoff. Over both the past and future 40 years, the monthly maximum and minimum sediment loads occurred, respectively, in April and August; whereas the seasonal sediment load followed the order: spring > winter > summer > fall. Among the four seasons, winter and spring accounted for about 86% of sediment load for both scenarios. Under the future 40-year climate conditions, a 10% reduction in annual average sediment load with afforestation was observed in comparison to without afforestation. This study provides new insights into how a future climate with afforestation would affect sediment load into the northern Gulf of Mexico.

Land conversion and climate change are stressing freshwater resources. Riparian areas, streamside vegetation/forest land, are critical for regulating hydrologic processes and riparian buffers are used as adaptive management strategies for mitigating land conversion effects. However, our ability to anticipate the efficacy of current and alternative riparian buffers under changing conditions remains limited. To address this information gap, we simulated hydrologic responses for different levels of buffer protection under a future scenario of land/climate change through the year 2060. We used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to project future streamflow in the Upper Neuse River watershed in North Carolina, USA. We tested the capacity of riparian buffers to mitigate the effects of future land use and climate change on daily mean streamflow under three buffer treatments: present buffer widths and fully forested 15 m and 30 m buffers throughout the basin. The treatments were tested using a combination of a future climate change scenario and landcover projections that indicated a doubling of low-intensity development between 2017 and 2060. In areas with50 % development, the 30 m buffers were particularly effective at increasing average daily streamflow during the lowest flow events by 4 % and decreasing flow during highest flow events by 3 % compared to no buffer protection. In areas between 20 and 50 % development, both 15 m and 30 m buffers reduced low flow by 8 % with minimal effects on high flow. Results indicate that standardized buffers might be more effective at a local scale with further research needing to focus on strategic buffer placement at the watershed scale. These findings highlight a novel approach for integrating buffers into hydrologic modeling and potential for improved methodology. Understanding the effects of riparian buffers on streamflow is crucial given the pressing need to develop innovative strategies that promote the conservation of invaluable ecosystem services.

We examine the applicability of predicting the daily flow–duration curve (FDC) using mean monthly runoff represented in its stochastic form (MM_FDC) to aid in predictions in ungauged basins, using ...

We compared precipitation intensity-duration-frequency (PIDF) curves developed for four small forested watersheds to spatially interpolated estimates from the National Oceanic and Atmospher...

Nearly one-sixth of US river basins are unable to consistently meet societal water demands while also providing sufficient water for the environment. Water scarcity is expected to intensify and spread as populations increase, new water demands emerge, and climate changes. Improving water productivity by meeting realistic benchmarks for all water users could allow US communities to expand economic activity and improve environmental flows. Here we utilize a spatially detailed database of water productivity to set realistic benchmarks for over 400 industries and products. We assess unrealized water savings achievable by each industry in each river basin within the conterminous US by bringing all water users up to industry- and region-specific water productivity benchmarks. Some of the most water stressed areas throughout the US West and South have the greatest potential for water savings, with around half of these water savings obtained by improving water productivity in the production of corn, cotton, and alfalfa. By incorporating benchmark-meeting water savings within a national hydrological model (WaSSI), we demonstrate that depletion of river flows across Western US regions can be reduced on average by 6.6%-23.5%, without reducing economic production. Lastly, we employ an environmentally-extended input-output model to identify the US industries and locations that can make the biggest impact by working with their suppliers to reduce water use “upstream” in their supply chain. The agriculture and manufacturing sectors have the largest indirect water footprint due to their reliance on water-intensive inputs but these sectors also show the greatest capacity to reduce water consumption throughout their supply chains.

Inter-basin water transfer (IBT) is widely used to mitigate water shortage at the cost of compromising water availability in water-exporting regions. Yet, we do not know how efficient are the IBTs in alleviating inter-regional water stress in a changing climate and water supply-demand context. From a socio-hydrological perspective, we here quantify the efficiency of more than 200 IBTs across the United States by a Stress Relief Index that measures the impact of water redistribution on the overall water stress level. Based on the assumption that an IBT-induced increase and reduction in water availability would respectively constitute a positive and negative impact on regional water security, we show that 29% of the IBTs could be considered socially inefficient by 2010 as they shift water stress from water-receiving to water-exporting and downstream regions. Future stress escalations induced by growing population, declining runoff, and increasing demands for energy production and irrigation will alter IBT efficiency disproportionately. The inefficient IBTs would amount to 32% and 35% by the end of the 21st century under the scenarios of representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5, with 7 ∼ 16 IBTs reaching a tipping point that their role in the water system could switch from alleviating to aggravating the overall water stress. Our results indicate that the evolving climatic and socioeconomic status can largely affect transfer efficiency, highlighting the need of basin-level adaptation strategies for sustainable use of the IBTs.

Short-rotation woody crops in the southeastern United States will make a significant contribution to the growing renewable energy supply over the 21st century; however, there are few studies that investigate how species selection may affect water yield. Here we assessed the impact of species selection on annual and seasonal water budgets in unvegetated plots and late-rotation 14–15-year-old intensively managed loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua L.) stands in South Carolina USA. We found that while annual aboveground net primary productivity and bioenergy produced was similar between species, sweetgum transpiration was 53% higher than loblolly pine annually and 92% greater during the growing season. Canopy interception was 10.5% of annual precipitation and was not significantly different between the two species. Soil evaporation was less than 1.3% of annual precipitation and did not differ between species, but was 26% of precipitation in unvegetated plots. Annual water yield was 69% lower for sweetgum than loblolly pine, with water yield to precipitation ratios of 0.13 and 0.39 for sweetgum and loblolly pine, respectively. If planted at a large scale, the high transpiration and low water yield in sweetgum could result in declines in downstream water availability relative to loblolly pine by the end of the growing season when storage in groundwater, streams, and water supply reservoirs are typically at their lowest. Our results suggest that species selection is of critical importance when establishing forest plantations for woody bioenergy production due to potential impacts on downstream water yield.

The need for predictions of flow time-series persists at ungauged catchments, motivating the research goals of our study. By means of the Sacramento model, this paper explores the use of parameter transfer within homogeneous regions of similar climate and flow characteristics and makes comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters. We assessed the performance using the Nash-Sutcliffe (NS), bias, mean monthly hydrograph and flow duration curve (FDC). The study was conducted on a large dataset of 73 catchments within the eastern US. Two approaches to the parameter transferability were developed and evaluated; (i) the within homogeneous region parameter transfer using one donor catchment specific to each region, (ii) the parameter transfer disregarding the geographical limits of homogeneous regions, where one donor catchment was common to all regions. Comparisons between both parameter transfers enabled to assess the gain in performance from the parameter regionalization and its respective constraints and limitations. The parameter transfer within homogeneous regions outperformed the a priori parameters and led to a decrease in bias and increase in efficiency reaching a median NS of 0.77 and a NS of 0.85 at individual catchments. The use of FDC revealed the effect of bias on the inaccuracy of prediction from parameter transfer. In one specific region, of mountainous and forested catchments, the prediction accuracy of the parameter transfer was less satisfactory and equivalent to a priori parameters. In this region, the parameter transfer from the outsider catchment provided the best performance; less-biased with smaller uncertainty in medium flow percentiles (40%–60%). The large disparity of energy conditions explained the lack of performance from parameter transfer in this region. Besides, the subsurface stormflow is predominant and there is a likelihood of lateral preferential flow, which according to its specific properties further explained the reduced efficiency. Testing the parameter transferability using criteria of similar climate and flow characteristics at ungauged catchments and comparisons with predictions from a priori parameters are a novelty. The ultimate limitations of both approaches are recognized and recommendations are made for future research.

This paper advances the physical understanding of the flow duration curve (FDC) regional variation. It provides a process-based analysis of the interaction between climate and landscape properties to explain disparities in FDC shapes. We used (i) long term measured flow and precipitation data over 73 catchments from the eastern US. (ii) We calibrated the Sacramento model (SAC-SMA) to simulate soil moisture and flow components FDCs. The catchments classification based on storm characteristics pointed to the effect of catchments landscape properties on the precipitation variability and consequently on the FDC shapes. The landscape properties effect was pronounce such that low value of the slope of FDC (SFDC)—hinting at limited flow variability—were present in regions of high precipitation variability. Whereas, in regions with low precipitation variability the SFDCs were of larger values. The topographic index distribution, at the catchment scale, indicated that saturation excess overland flow mitigated the flow variability under conditions of low elevations with large soil moisture storage capacity and high infiltration rates. The SFDCs increased due to the predominant subsurface stormflow in catchments at high elevations with limited soil moisture storage capacity and low infiltration rates. Our analyses also highlighted the major role of soil infiltration rates on the FDC despite the impact of the predominant runoff generation mechanism and catchment elevation. In conditions of slow infiltration rates in soils of large moisture storage capacity (at low elevations) and predominant saturation excess, the SFDCs were of larger values. On the other hand, the SFDCs decreased in catchments of prevalent subsurface stormflow and poorly drained soils of small soil moisture storage capacity. The analysis of the flow components FDCs demonstrated that the interflow contribution to the response was the higher in catchments with large value of slope of the FDC. The surface flow FDC was the most affected by the precipitation as it tracked the precipitation duration curve (PDC). In catchments with low SFDCs, this became less applicable as surface flow FDC diverged from PDC at the upper tail (> 40% of the flow percentile). The interflow and baseflow FDCs illustrated most the filtering effect on the precipitation. The process understanding we achieved in this study is key for flow simulation and assessment in addition to future works focusing on process-based FDC predictions.

Streamflow is essential for maintaining healthy aquatic ecosystems and for supporting human water supply needs. Changes in climate, land use and water use practices may alter water availability. Understanding the potential effect of these changes on aquatic ecosystems is critical for long-term water management to maintain a balance between water for human consumption and ecosystem needs. Fish species data and streamflow estimates from a rainfall-runoff and flow routing model were used to develop boosted regression tree models to predict the relationship between streamflow and fish species richness (FSR) under plausible scenarios of (1) water withdrawal, (2) climate change and (3) increases in impervious surfaces in the Piedmont ecoregion of North Carolina, U.S.A. Maximum monthly flow, the fraction of total flow originating from impervious surface runoff, coefficient of monthly streamflow variability, and the specific river basin accounted for 50% of the variability in FSR. This model was used to predict FSR values for all twelve-digit Hydrological Unit Code catchments (HUC-12s) in the North Carolina Piedmont under current flow conditions and under water withdrawal, climate change and impervious surface scenarios. Flow–ecology modeling results indicate that predicted FSR declined significantly with increased water withdrawals. However, the magnitude of decline varied geographically. A “hot-spot” analysis was conducted based on predicted changes in FSR under each scenario to understand which HUC-12s were most likely to be affected by changes in water withdrawals, climate and impervious surfaces. Under the 20% withdrawal increase scenario, 413 of 886 (47%) HUC-12s in the study area were predicted to lose one or more species. HUC-12s in the Broad, Catawba, Yadkin and Cape Fear river basins were most susceptible to species loss. These findings may help decision making efforts by identifying catchments most vulnerable to changing water availability. Additionally, FSR-discharge modeling results can assist resource agencies, water managers and stakeholders in assessing the effect of water withdrawals in catchments to better support the protection and long-term conservation of species.

Wildfires can impact streamflow by modifying net precipitation, infiltration, evapotranspiration, snowmelt, and hillslope run-off pathways. Regional differences in fire trends and postwildfire streamflow responses across the conterminous United States have spurred concerns about the impact on streamflow in forests that serve as water resource areas. This is notably the case for the Western United States, where fire activity and burn severity have increased in conjunction with climate change and increased forest density due to human fire suppression. In this review, we discuss the effects of wildfire on hydrological processes with a special focus on regional differences in postwildfire streamflow responses in forests. Postwildfire peak flows and annual water yields are generally higher in regions with a Mediterranean or semi-arid climate (Southern California and the Southwest) compared to the highlands (Rocky Mountains and the Pacific Northwest), where fire-induced changes in hydraulic connectivity along the hillslope results in the delivery of more water, more rapidly to streams. No clear streamflow response patterns have been identified in the humid subtropical Southeastern United States, where most fires are prescribed fires with a low burn severity, and more research is needed in that region. Improved assessment of postwildfire streamflow relies on quantitative spatial knowledge of landscape variables such as prestorm soil moisture, burn severity and correlations with soil surface sealing, water repellency, and ash deposition. The latest studies furthermore emphasize that understanding the effects of hydrological processes on postwildfire dynamic hydraulic connectivity, notably at the hillslope and watershed scales, and the relationship between overlapping disturbances including those other than wildfire is necessary for the development of risk assessment tools.

Land use and land cover changes (LULCC) associated with urbanization affect watershed functions and services through fundamental alteration of biogeochemical cycles. Quantifying the potential chang...

We report data on the projections of annual surface water demand and supply in the conterminous United States at a high spatial resolution from 2010s to the end of the 21st century, including: 1) water withdrawal and consumption in the water-use sectors of domestic, thermoelectric power generation, and irrigation; 2) availability of surface water generated from local watershed runoff, accumulated from upstream areas, and artificially transferred from other basins. These data were derived from the projected changes in climate, population, energy structure, technology and water uses. These data are related to the original article “Understanding the role of regional water connectivity in mitigating climate change impacts on surface water supply stress in the United States” (Duan et al., 2019) [1]. Keywords: Surface water, Water withdrawal, Water consumption, Water supply, Hydrologic system, United States

Forests provide the most stable and highest quality water supplies among all land uses. Quantitatively evaluating the benefits of forest water supply functions is important to effectively mitigate the impacts of land development, climate change, and population growth. Here, by integrating a water balance model and national drinking water data, we determined the amount of surface water yield originating on different forest ownership types at a fine resolution (88,000 watersheds) and tracked that water through the river network to drinking water intakes and the populations they serve. We found that forested lands comprised 36% of the total land area but contributed 50% of the total surface water yield. Of the 23,983 public surface drinking water intakes depending on surface water sources, 89% (serving around 150 million people) received some (>0.01%) surface water from forested lands, and 38% (serving about 60 million people) received more than 50% of their surface drinking water supply from forested lands. Privately-owned forests were the most important water source in the eastern U.S., benefiting 16 million people, followed by federal forests (14.4% of the total water supply). In contrast, federally-owned forested lands were the dominant water source (52% of the total water supply) in the West. Privately-owned forests are the most vulnerable to future land use change and associated water supply impacts. Continuing programs that support private forest landowners with financial and technical assistance through federal and state forest management agencies and potentially developing payment for ecosystem service schemes could maximize benefits for landowners so they may retain their land assets while minimizing forest loss and associated impacts on critical ecosystem services including the provisioning a clean and reliable water supply for the American public.

Air pollution from greenhouse gases and atmospheric aerosols are the major driving force of climate change that directly alters the terrestrial hydrological cycle and ecosystem functions. However, most current Global Climate Models (GCMs) use prescribed chemical concentrations of limited species; they do not explicitly simulate the time-varying concentrations of trace gases and aerosols and their impacts on climate change. This study investigates the individual and combined impacts of climate change and air pollution on water availability and ecosystem productivity over the conterminous US (CONUS). An ecohydrological model is driven by multiple regional climate scenarios with and without taking into account the impacts of air pollutants on the climate system. The results indicate that regional chemistry-climate feedbacks may largely offset the future warming and wetting trends predicted by GCMs without considering air pollution at the CONUS scale. Consequently, the interactions of air pollution and climate change are expected to significantly reduce water availability by the middle of twenty-first century. On the other hand, the combined impact of climate change and air pollution on ecosystem productivity is less pronounced, but there may still be notable declines in eastern and central regions. The results suggest that air pollution could aggravate regional climate change impacts on water shortage. We conclude that air pollution plays an important role in affecting climate and thus ecohydrological processes. Overlooking the impact of air pollution may cause evident overestimation of future water availability and ecosystem productivity.

The relationships among drought, surface water flow, and groundwater recharge are not straightforward for most forest ecosystems due to the strong role that vegetation plays in the forest water balance. Hydrologic responses to drought can be either mitigated or exacerbated by forest vegetation depending upon vegetation water use and how forest population dynamics respond to drought. Understanding how drought impacts ecosystems requires understanding how drought impacts ecohydrological processes. Because different species and functional groups vary in their ecophysiological traits that influence water use patterns, changes in species assemblages can alter hydrological processes from the stand to the watershed scales. Recent warming trends and more prolonged and frequent droughts have accelerated the spread and intensity of insect attacks in the western US that kill nearly all of the canopy trees within forest stands, changing the energy balance of the land surface and affecting many hydrologic processes. In contrast, some eastern forest tree species and size classes can tolerate drought better than others, suggesting the potential for drought-mediated shifts in both species composition and structure. Predicting how these changes will impact hydrologic processes at larger spatial and temporal scales presents a considerable challenge. The biogeochemical consequences of drought, such as changes in stream chemistry, are closely linked to vegetation dynamics and hydrologic responses. As with other natural disturbances, droughts are difficult to prepare for because they are unpredictable. However, there are management options that may be implemented to minimize the impacts of drought on water quantity and quality. Examples include reducing leaf area by thinning and regenerating cut forests with species that consume less water, although a high level of uncertainty in both drought projections and anticipated responses suggests the need for monitoring and adaptive management.

Climate change and forest disturbances are threatening the ability of forested mountain watersheds to provide the clean, reliable, and abundant fresh water necessary to support aquatic ecosystems and a growing human population. Here, we used 76 years of water yield, climate, and field plot vegetation measurements in six unmanaged, reference watersheds in the southern Appalachian Mountains of North Carolina, USA to determine whether water yield has changed over time, and to examine and attribute the causal mechanisms of change. We found that annual water yield increased in some watersheds from 1938 to the mid-1970s by as much as 55%, but this was followed by decreases up to 22% by 2013. Changes in forest evapotranspiration were consistent with, but opposite in direction to the changes in water yield, with decreases in evapotranspiration up to 31% by the mid-1970s followed by increases up to 29% until 2013. Vegetation survey data showed commensurate reductions in forest basal area until the mid-1970s and increases since that time accompanied by a shift in dominance from xerophytic oak and hickory species to several mesophytic species (i.e., mesophication) that use relatively more water. These changes in forest structure and species composition may have decreased water yield by as much as 18% in a given year since the mid-1970s after accounting for climate. Our results suggest that changes in climate and forest structure and species composition in unmanaged forests brought about by disturbance and natural community dynamics over time can result in large changes in water supply.

Quantifying the potential impacts of climate change on water yield and ecosystem productivity is essential to developing sound watershed restoration plans, and ecosystem adaptation and mitigation strategies. This study links an ecohydrological model (Water Supply and Stress Index, WaSSI) with WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) using dynamically downscaled climate data of the HadCM3 model under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. We evaluated the future (2031–2060) changes in evapotranspiration (ET), water yield (Q) and gross primary productivity (GPP) from the baseline period of 1979–2007 across the 82 773 watersheds (12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code level) in the coterminous US (CONUS). Across the CONUS, the future multi-year means show increases in annual precipitation (P) of 45 mm yr−1 (6 %), 1.8° C increase in temperature (T), 37 mm yr−1 (7 %) increase in ET, 9 mm yr−1 (3 %) increase in Q, and 106 gC m−2 yr−1 (9 %) increase in GPP. We found a large spatial variability in response to climate change across the CONUS 12-digit HUC watersheds, but in general, the majority would see consistent increases all variables evaluated. Over half of the watersheds, mostly found in the northeast and the southern part of the southwest, would see an increase in annual Q (> 100 mm yr−1 or 20 %). In addition, we also evaluated the future annual and monthly changes of hydrology and ecosystem productivity for the 18 Water Resource Regions (WRRs) or two-digit HUCs. The study provides an integrated method and example for comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of climate change on watershed water balances and ecosystem productivity at high spatial and temporal resolutions. Results may be useful for policy-makers and land managers to formulate appropriate watershed-specific strategies for sustaining water and carbon sources in the face of climate change.

Understanding the tradeoffs between water yield and ecosystem productivity is important for developing strategies for large scale ecological restoration worldwide. This study focused on a national forest protection project in the Upper Yangtze River Basin where a logging ban was implemented in 1998. We used a hydrologic model and remote sensing data to study the interactions between water and carbon cycles along elevation gradients in the Minjiang watershed (MJ), where extensive deforestation and reforestation have occurred in the past seven decades. Average annual evapotranspiration (ET), water yield, and gross primary productivity (GPP) from 2000 to 2015 were estimated as 429 mm yr−1, 555 mm yr−1, and 1002 g C m−2 yr−1, respectively. ET decreased sharply and consistently with increasing elevation, whereas GPP only decreased significantly in high elevation areas (i.e., >3,000 m), resulting in divergent trends of water use efficiency (WUE) with elevation. Evergreen needleleaf forests (ENF) contributed 28% of water yield and 37% of GPP at the watershed scale, while grassland (GRA) also contributed 28% of water yield, but only 20% of total watershed GPP. Moreover, runoff coefficients showed strong negative correlations with GPP, suggesting a general trade-off relationship between water yield and ecosystem productivity in MJ. Our results suggest that vegetation composition and elevation played a key role in determining the relative ecological benefits for carbon and water in the study watershed with a complex terrain.

Nearly one-sixth of U.S. river basins are unable to consistently meet societal water demands while also providing sufficient water for the environment. Water scarcity is expected to intensify and spread as populations increase, new water demands emerge, and climate changes. Improving water productivity by meeting realistic benchmarks for all water users could allow U.S. communities to expand economic activity and improve environmental flows. Here we utilize a spatially detailed database of water productivity to set realistic benchmarks for over 400 industries and products. We assess unrealized water savings achievable by each industry in each river basin within the conterminous U.S. by bringing all water users up to industry- and region-specific water productivity benchmarks. Some of the most water stressed areas throughout the U.S. West and South have the greatest potential for water savings, with around half of these water savings obtained by improving water productivity in the production of corn, cotton, and alfalfa. By incorporating benchmark-meeting water savings within a national hydrological model (WaSSI), we demonstrate that depletion of river flows across Western U.S. regions can be reduced on average by 6.2-23.2%, without reducing economic production. Lastly, we employ an environmentally extended input-output model to identify the U.S. industries and locations that can make the biggest impact by working with their suppliers to reduce water use 'upstream' in their supply chain. The agriculture and manufacturing sectors have the largest indirect water footprint due to their reliance on water-intensive inputs but these sectors also show the greatest capacity to reduce water consumption throughout their supply chains. National Science FoundationNational Science Foundation (NSF) [ACI-1639529]; U.S. Geological SurveyUnited States Geological Survey [G20AP00002] L T M and B L R acknowledge support by the National Science Foundation Grant No. ACI-1639529 (INFEWS/T1: Mesoscale Data Fusion to Map and Model the U.S. Food, Energy, and Water (FEW) system) and U.S. Geological Survey under Grant/Cooperative Agreement No. G20AP00002. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this material are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation or the U.S. Geological Survey. The findings and conclusions in this publication are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official U.S. Department of Agriculture or U.S. Government determination or policy. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Government.

The frontier of wildfire-related risk assessment is moving into data science territory, and with good reason. Computational statistics, built on a foundation of high resolution remote sensing data,...

Precipitation and temperature are the two key climatic variables that control the hydrological cycle and water availability for humans. This study examines the potential shift of the relative roles of precipitation and temperature in controlling annual runoff in the conterminous United States (CONUS), using a water-centric ecohydrological model driven with historical records and climate scenarios constructed from 20 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) climate models. The results suggest that precipitation has been the primary control of runoff variability and trend during the latest decades. However, the influence of temperature is projected to increase in a continued warming future in the 21st century. Despite considerable uncertainty and regional diversity, the multi-model ensemble reveals a high degree of consistency in the general increasing trend of both precipitation and temperature in the future, imposing positive and negative effects on annual runoff, respectively. The magnitude of temperature effect tends to exceed that of precipitation, and thus leads to an overall decrease of 8 ~ 30 mm yr−1 (3 % ~ 11 %) runoff by 2100. Overall, temperature and precipitation changes are expected to contribute to runoff change by 58 % ~ 65 % and 31 % ~ 39 % separately, indicating that the role of rising temperature may outweigh that of precipitation in the later part of the 21st century. Across the CONUS, runoff decrease and increase in 34 % ~ 52 % and 11 % ~ 12 % of the land area are expected to be dominated by long-term changes in temperature and precipitation, respectively. We found that the vast croplands and grasslands across the central and forests in the northwestern regions might be particularly vulnerable to water supply decline caused by the changing climate.

Rivers are essential to aquatic ecosystem and societal sustainability, but are increasingly impacted by water withdrawals, land-use change, and climate change. The relative and cumulative effects of these stressors on continental river flows are relatively unknown. In this study, we used an integrated water balance and flow routing model to evaluate the impacts of impervious cover and water withdrawal on river flow across the conterminous US at the 8-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC) watershed scale. We then estimated the impacts of projected change in withdrawals, impervious cover, and climate under the B1 "Low" and A2 "High" emission scenarios on river flows by 2060. Our results suggest that compared to no impervious cover, 2010 levels of impervious cover increased river flows by 9.9% on average with larger impacts in and downstream of major metropolitan areas. In contrast, compared to no water withdrawals, 2005 withdrawals decreased river flows by 1.4% on average with larger impacts in heavily irrigated arid regions of Western US. By 2060, impacts of climate change were predicted to overwhelm the potential gain in river flow due to future changes in impervious cover and add to the potential reduction in river flows from withdrawals, decreasing mean annual river flows from 2010 levels by 16% on average. However, increases in impervious cover by 2060 may offset the impact of climate change during the growing season in some watersheds. Large water withdrawals will aggravate the predicted impact of climate change on river flows, particularly in the Western US. Predicted ecohydrological impacts of land cover, water withdrawal, and climate change will likely include alteration of the terrestrial water balance, stream channel habitat, riparian and aquatic community structure in snow-dominated basins, and fish and mussel extirpations in heavily impacted watersheds. These changes may also require new infrastructure to support increasing anthropogenic demand for water, relocation of agricultural production, and/or water conservation measures. Given that the impacts of land use, withdrawals and climate may be either additive or offsetting in different magnitudes, integrated and spatially explicit modeling and management approaches are necessary to effectively manage water resources for aquatic life and human use in the face of global change.

Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of these changes at global scales is confounded by shortcomings in the observed record. Modeled assessments yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we compare simulated runoff from six terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), five reanalysis products, and one gridded surface station product with observations from a network of stream gauges in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2005. We evaluate the consistency of simulated runoff with stream gauge data at the CONUS and water resource region scale, as well as examining similarity across TBMs and reanalysis products at the grid cell scale. Mean runoff across all simulated products and regions varies widely (range: 71–356 mm yr-1) relative to observed continental-scale runoff (209 mm yr-1). Across all 12 products only two are within 10% of the observed value and only four exhibit Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency values in excess of 0.8. Region-level mismatch exhibits a weak pattern of overestimation in western and underestimation in eastern regions; although two products are systematically biased across all regions. In contrast, bias in a temporal sense, within region by water year, is highly consistent. Although gridded composite TBM and reanalysis runoff show some regional similarities for 2001–2005 with CONUS means, individual product values are highly variable. To further constrain simulated runoff and to link model-observation mismatch to model structural characteristics would require watershed-level simulation studies coupled with river routing schemes, standardized forcing data, and explicit consideration of water cycle management.

a b s t r a c t Significant changes in the water cycle are expected under current global environmental change. Robust assessment of present-day water cycle dynamics at continental to global scales is confounded by short- comings in the observed record. Modeled assessments also yield conflicting results which are linked to differences in model structure and simulation protocol. Here we compare simulated gridded (1 ◦ spatial resolution) runoff from six terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs), seven reanalysis products, and one grid- ded surface station product in the contiguous United States (CONUS) from 2001 to 2005. We evaluate the consistency of these 14 estimates with stream gauge data, both as depleted flow and corrected for net withdrawals (2005 only), at the CONUS and water resource region scale, as well as examining similarity across TBMs and reanalysis products at the grid cell scale. Mean runoff across all simulated products and regions varies widely (range: 71 to 356 mm yr −1 ) relative to observed continental-scale runoff (209 or 280 mm yr −1

Evapotranspiration (ET) is arguably the most uncertain ecohydrologic variable for quantifying watershed water budgets. Although numerous ET and hydrological models exist, accurately predicting the effects of global change on water use and availability remains challenging because of model deficiency and/or a lack of input parameters. The objective of this study was to create a new set of monthly ET models that can better quantify landscape-level ET with readily available meteorological and biophysical information. We integrated eddy covariance flux measurements from over 200 sites, multiple year remote sensing products from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and statistical modelling. Through examining the key biophysical controls on ET by land cover type (i.e. shrubland, cropland, deciduous forest, evergreen forest, mixed forest, grassland, and savannas), we created unique ET regression models for each land cover type using different combinations of biophysical independent factors. Leaf area index and net radiation explained most of the variability of observed ET for shrubland, cropland, grassland, savannas, and evergreen forest ecosystems. In contrast, potential ET (PET) as estimated by the temperature-based Hamon method was most useful for estimating monthly ET for deciduous and mixed forests. The more data-demanding PET method, FAO reference ET model, had similar power as the simpler Hamon PET method for estimating actual ET. We developed three sets of monthly ET models by land cover type for different practical applications with different data availability. Our models may be used to improve water balance estimates for large basins or regions with mixed land cover types. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

The goal of this study was to test the sensitivity of water yield to forest thinning and other forest management/disturbances and climate across the conterminous United States (CONUS). Leaf area index (LAI) was selected as a key parameter linking changes in forest ecosystem structure and functions. We used the Water Supply Stress Index model to examine water yield response under 18 scenarios that combine hypothetical LAI changes (+10%, ±20%, −50%, and −80%), uniform increases in temperature (+1 °C and +2 °C) and precipitation change (±10%), and four climate change scenarios projected by general circulation models (GCMs) for the year 2050. Approximately 2100 large basins produced approximately 2003 billion cubic metres of water annually from 2002 to 2007. Forest lands covered 23% of the land surface area, but contributed 43% of the total water yield for the CONUS. As a whole, water yield increased by 3%, 8%, and 13% when LAI was reduced 20%, 50%, and 80%, respectively, while water yield decreased by 3% when LAI increased by 20%. Temperature increases of 2 °C alone could decrease water yield by 11%. A reduction of precipitation by 10% and 20% could result in a decrease of water yield by 20% and 39%, respectively. The direction and magnitude of water yield response to the combinations of LAI (+10%), climate warming (+1 °C), and precipitation change (±10%) were dominated by the change in precipitation. Climate change projected by the four GCMs (CSIROMK2 B2, CSIROMK3.5 A1B, HADCM3 B2, and MIROC32 A1B) resulted in a large change in water yield (+18% to −64%) by 2045–2055 when compared with the baseline. A 50% reduction in forest LAI under the four GCMs scenarios could greatly mitigate or exacerbate future climate change impacts on water yield in forest-dominated watersheds with high precipitation. This study provides the first quantitative estimate of the effects of forest thinning options on water yield under future climate across the CONUS. Effective forest water management for climate mitigation should focus on those watersheds identified. Published 2015. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Peter V. Caldwell,* Jonathan G. Kennen, Ge Sun, Julie E. Kiang, Jon B. Butcher, Michele C. Eddy, Lauren E. Hay, Jacob H. LaFontaine, Ernie F. Hain, Stacy A. C. Nelson and Steve G. McNulty 1 Center for Forest Watershed Science, USDA Forest Service, Otto, NC, USA 2 US Geological Survey, Lawrenceville, NJ, USA 3 Eastern Forest Environmental Threat Assessment Center, USDA Forest Service, Raleigh, NC, USA 4 US Geological Survey, Office of Surface Water, Reston, VA, USA 5 Tetra Tech, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA 6 RTI International, Research Triangle Park, NC, USA 7 US Geological Survey, Lakewood, CO, USA 8 US Geological Survey, Norcross, GA, USA 9 Center for Geospatial Analytics, Department of Forestry and Environmental Resources, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC, 27695, USA

Study region: Southeastern United States Study focus: The objective was to evaluate the ability of two modified SCS-CN models to predict direct runoff (DRO) and peak discharge rate (Qp) for selected storm events in three forested watersheds in the region - one low-gradient system in South Carolina, two high-gradient upland systems in North Carolina, and a mid-gradient upland system in Arkansas. New hydrological insights for the region: The calculated peak discharge rate Qp values by all methods were unsatisfactory when using the default pond and swamp adjustment factor (Fp) value of 0.72 recommended in the SCS TR55 guideline, indicating that use of the default Fp value may result in erroneous Qp estimates for forest watersheds with high retention capacities. These findings, indicating the superiority of the modified Sahu-Mishra-Eldo (SME_m) method to the original SCS method in runoff calculations and substantially lower Fp values in the associated Qp method, are significant for hydrologists and engineers who frequently apply the methods in design of storm water management structures including road culverts on forested landscapes. Keywords: Antecedent moisture condition, Fp factor, SME_m method, TR 55 procedure

Stream water temperature (ts) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, ts records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict ts at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow database, describes the linear relationship between monthly mean air temperature (ta) and ts. Multiple linear regression models are used to predict the slope (m) and intercept (b) of the ta–ts linear relation as a function of climatic, hydrologic and land cover characteristics. Model performance to predict ts resulted in a mean Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.78 across all sites. Application of the model to predict ts at additional 89 nonreference sites with a higher human alteration yielded a mean Nash–Sutcliffe value of 0.45. We also analysed seasonal thermal sensitivity (m) and found strong hysteresis in the ta–ts relation. Drainage area exerts a strong control on m in all seasons, whereas the cooling effect of groundwater was only evident for the spring and fall seasons. However, groundwater contributions are negatively related to mean ts in all seasons. Finally, we found that elevation and mean basin slope are negatively related to mean ts in all seasons, indicating that steep basins tend to stay cooler because of shorter residence times to gain heat from their surroundings. This model can potentially be used to predict climate change impacts on ts across the USA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (Ts) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long-term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we demonstrate how simple monthly linear regression models based on short-term historical Ts observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (Ta) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in Ts. Models were developed for 61 sites in the southeastern USA using ≥18 months of observations and were validated at sites with longer periods of record. The Ts models were then used to estimate temporal changes in Ts at each site using both historical estimates and future Ta projections. Results suggested that the linear regression models adequately explained the variability in Ts across sites, and the relationships between Ts and Ta remained consistent over 37 years. We estimated that most sites had increases in historical annual mean Ts between 1961 and 2010 (mean of +0.11 °C decade−1). All 61 sites were projected to experience increases in Ts from 2011 to 2060 under the three climate projections evaluated (mean of +0.41 °C decade−1). Several of the sites with the largest historical and future Ts changes were located in ecoregions home to temperature-sensitive fish species. This methodology can be used by resource managers for rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.