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BackgroundPersons with HIV (PWH) with high mobility face obstacles to HIV care engagement and viral suppression. We sought to understand whether a patient-centered intervention for mobile PWH would improve viral suppression and retention in care, and if so, which subgroups would benefit most.MethodsIn a randomized trial, we evaluated the effect of an intervention designed to address barriers to care among mobile (≥2 weeks out of community in previous year) PWH with viral nonsuppression or recent missed visits in Kenya and Uganda (NCT04810650). The intervention included dynamic choice of a "travel pack" (emergency antiretroviral therapy [ART] supply, discrete ART packaging, and travel checklist), multimonth and offsite refills, facilitated transfer to out-of-community clinics, and hotline access to a mobility coordinator. The primary outcome was viral suppression (

IntroductionOptimizing HIV prevention may require structured approaches for providing client-centred choices as well as community-based entry points and delivery. We evaluated the effect of a dynamic choice model for HIV prevention, delivered by community health workers (CHWs) with clinician support, on the use of biomedical prevention among persons at risk of HIV in rural East Africa.MethodsWe conducted a cluster randomized trial among persons (≥15 years) with current or anticipated HIV risk in 16 villages in Uganda and Kenya (SEARCH; NCT04810650). The intervention was a client-centred HIV prevention model, including (1) structured client choice of product (pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP] or post-exposure prophylaxis [PEP]), service location (clinic or out-of-clinic) and HIV testing modality (self-test or rapid test), with the ability to switch over time; (2) a structured assessment of patient barriers and development of a personalized support plan; and (3) phone access to a clinician 24/7. The intervention was delivered by CHWs and supported by clinicians who oversaw PrEP and PEP initiation and monitoring. Participants in control villages were referred to local health facilities for HIV prevention services, delivered by Ministry of Health staff. The primary outcome was biomedical prevention coverage: a proportion of 48-week follow-up with self-reported PrEP or PEP use.ResultsFrom May to July 2021, we enrolled 429 people (212 intervention; 217 control): 57% women and 35% aged 15-24 years. Among intervention participants, 58% chose PrEP and 58% chose PEP at least once over follow-up; self-testing increased from 52% (baseline) to 71% (week 48); ≥98% chose out-of-facility service delivery. Among 413 (96%) participants with the primary outcome ascertained, average biomedical prevention coverage was 28.0% in the intervention versus 0.5% in the control: a difference of 27.5% (95% CI: 23.0-31.9%, p

IntroductionUnhealthy alcohol use significantly contributes to viral non-suppression among persons with HIV (PWH). It is unknown whether brief behavioural interventions to reduce alcohol use can improve viral suppression among PWH with unhealthy alcohol use in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).MethodsAs part of the SEARCH study (NCT04810650), we conducted an individually randomized trial in Kenya and Uganda of a brief, skills-based alcohol intervention among PWH with self-reported unhealthy alcohol use (Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Consumption [AUDIT-C], prior 3 months, ≥3/female; ≥4/male) and at risk of viral non-suppression, defined as either recent HIV viral non-suppression (≥400 copies/ml), missed visits, out of care or new diagnosis. The intervention included baseline and 3-month in-person counselling sessions with interim booster phone calls every 3 weeks. The primary outcome was HIV viral suppression (200 ng/ml (RR 0.97, 95% CI: 0.92-1.02).ConclusionsIn a randomized trial of 401 PWH with unhealthy alcohol use and risk for viral non-suppression, a brief alcohol intervention reduced unhealthy alcohol use but did not affect viral suppression at 24 weeks. Brief alcohol interventions have the potential to improve the health of PWH in SSA by reducing alcohol use, a significant driver of HIV-associated co-morbidities.

Across research disciplines, cluster randomized trials (CRTs) are commonly implemented to evaluate interventions delivered to groups of participants, such as communities and clinics. Despite advances in the design and analysis of CRTs, several challenges remain. First, there are many possible ways to specify the causal effect of interest (eg, at the individual-level or at the cluster-level). Second, the theoretical and practical performance of common methods for CRT analysis remain poorly understood. Here, we present a general framework to formally define an array of causal effects in terms of summary measures of counterfactual outcomes. Next, we provide a comprehensive overview of CRT estimators, including the t-test, generalized estimating equations (GEE), augmented-GEE, and targeted maximum likelihood estimation (TMLE). Using finite sample simulations, we illustrate the practical performance of these estimators for different causal effects and when, as commonly occurs, there are limited numbers of clusters of different sizes. Finally, our application to data from the Preterm Birth Initiative (PTBi) study demonstrates the real-world impact of varying cluster sizes and targeting effects at the cluster-level or at the individual-level. Specifically, the relative effect of the PTBi intervention was 0.81 at the cluster-level, corresponding to a 19% reduction in outcome incidence, and was 0.66 at the individual-level, corresponding to a 34% reduction in outcome risk. Given its flexibility to estimate a variety of user-specified effects and ability to adaptively adjust for covariates for precision gains while maintaining Type-I error control, we conclude TMLE is a promising tool for CRT analysis.

The Hazard Ratio (HR) is a well-established treatment effect measure in randomized trials involving right-censored time-to-events, and the Cardiovascular Outcome Trials (CVOTs) conducted since the FDA’s 2008 guidance have indeed largely evaluated excess risk by estimating a Cox HR. On the other hand, the limitations of the Cox model and of the HR as a causal estimand are well known, and the FDA’s updated 2020 CVOT guidance invites us to reassess this default approach to survival analyses. We highlight the shortcomings of Cox HR-based analyses and present an alternative following the causal roadmap—moving in a principled way from a counterfactual causal question to identifying a statistical estimand, and finally to targeted estimation in a large statistical model. We show in simulations the robustness of Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) to informative censoring and model misspecification and demonstrate a targeted learning analogue of the original Cox HR-based analysis of the Liraglutide Effect and Action in Diabetes: Evaluation of Cardiovascular Outcome Results (LEADER) trial. We discuss the potential reliability, interpretability, and efficiency gains to be had by updating our survival methods to incorporate the recent decades of advancements in formal causal frameworks and efficient nonparametricestimation.

IntroductionPerson-centred HIV prevention delivery models that offer structured choices in product, testing and visit location may increase coverage. However, data are lacking on the actual uptake of choices among persons at risk of HIV in southern Africa. In an ongoing randomized study (SEARCH; NCT04810650) in rural East Africa, we evaluated the uptake of choices made when offered in a person-centred, dynamic choice model for HIV prevention.MethodsUsing the PRECEDE framework, we developed a persont-centred, Dynamic Choice HIV Prevention (DCP) intervention for persons at risk of HIV in three settings in rural Kenya and Uganda: antenatal clinic (ANC), outpatient department (OPD) and in the community. Components include: provider training on product choice (predisposing); flexibility and responsiveness to client desires and choices (pre-exposure prophylaxis [PrEP]/post-exposure prophylaxis [PEP], clinic vs. off-site visits and self- or clinician-based HIV testing) (enabling); and client and staff feedback (reinforcing). All clients received a structured assessment of barriers with personalized plans to address them, mobile phone access to clinicians (24 hours/7 days/week) and integrated reproductive health services. In this interim analysis, we describe the uptake of choices of product, location and testing during the first 24 weeks of follow-up (April 2021-March 2022).ResultsA total of 612 (203 ANC, 197 OPD and 212 community) participants were randomized to the person-centred DCP intervention. We delivered the DCP intervention in all three settings with diverse populations: ANC: 39% pregnant; median age: 24 years; OPD: 39% male, median age 27 years; and community: 42% male, median age: 29 years. Baseline choice of PrEP was highest in ANC (98%) vs. OPD (84%) and community (40%); whereas the proportion of adults selecting PEP was higher in the community (46%) vs. OPD (8%) and ANC (1%). Personal preference for off-site visits increased over time (65% at week 24 vs. 35% at baseline). Interest in alternative HIV testing modalities grew over time (38% baseline self-testing vs. 58% at week 24).ConclusionsA person-centred model incorporating structured choice in biomedical prevention and care delivery options in settings with demographically diverse groups, in rural Kenya and Uganda, was responsive to varying personal preferences over time in HIV prevention programmes.

IntroductionSwitch to dolutegravir (DTG) in treatment-experienced people living with HIV (PLH) is associated with excess weight gain in some settings; data are limited from rural low-income settings with low obesity prevalence.MethodsIn rural Kenya, we conducted a retrospective cohort study at 8 HIV clinics and a single-site prospective cohort study including adults switching to DTG during countrywide transition to DTG/tenofovir DF(TDF)/emtricitabine as first-line HIV treatment. In the retrospective analysis, we used preswitch data to model postswitch weight trajectory had each participant not switched to DTG and contrasted observed vs. predicted postswitch weight. In the prospective analysis, we measured weight post-DTG switch and evaluated predictors of 6-month weight change.ResultsOur retrospective cohort included 4445 PLH who switched to DTG between 2018 and 2020. Mean 12-month weight change was 0.6 kg preswitch and 0.8 kg postswitch. Among those on TDF throughout (n = 3374; 83% on efavirenz preswitch), 12-month postswitch weight was 0.7 kg more than predicted for women (95% CI: 0.4, 1.0) and similar among men (0.04 kg; 95% CI -0.3, 0.4). In our prospective cohort (n = 135, 100% female), mean 6-month weight change was +0.4 kg (IQR -1.1, 2.0 kg). Predicted gain varied by baseline food insecurity: +1.1 kg (95% CI: 0.34, 1.87) among food secure, -0.09 kg (95% CI -0.71, 0.54) among moderate insecure, and +0.27 kg (95% CI -0.82, 1.36) among severe insecurity.ConclusionIn contrast to some reports of large weight gain following switch to DTG, we observed small weight increases in women and no weight change in men following DTG switch when on TDF throughout. Weight gain may be attenuated by food insecurity, though was modest even among food secure.

Given an (optimal) dynamic treatment rule, it may be of interest to evaluate that rule - that is, to ask the causal question: what is the expected outcome had every subject received treatment according to that rule? In this paper, we study the performance of estimators that approximate the true value of: (1) an a priori known dynamic treatment rule (2) the true, unknown optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR); (3) an estimated ODTR, a so-called "data-adaptive parameter," whose true value depends on the sample. Using simulations of point-treatment data, we specifically investigate: (1) the impact of increasingly data-adaptive estimation of nuisance parameters and/or of the ODTR on performance; (2) the potential for improved efficiency and bias reduction through the use of semiparametric efficient estimators; and, (3) the importance of sample splitting based on the cross-validated targeted maximum likelihood estimator (CV-TMLE) for accurate inference. In the simulations considered, there was very little cost and many benefits to using CV-TMLE to estimate the value of the true and estimated ODTR; importantly, and in contrast to non cross-validated estimators, the performance of CV-TMLE was maintained even when highly data-adaptive algorithms were used to estimate both nuisance parameters and the ODTR. In addition, we apply these estimators for the value of the rule to the "Interventions" study, an ongoing randomized controlled trial, to identify whether assigning cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) to criminal justice-involved adults with mental illness using an ODTR significantly reduces the probability of recidivism, compared to assigning CBT in a non-individualized way.

The optimal dynamic treatment rule (ODTR) framework offers an approach for understanding which kinds of patients respond best to specific treatments - in other words, treatment effect heterogeneity. Recently, there has been a proliferation of methods for estimating the ODTR. One such method is an extension of the SuperLearner algorithm - an ensemble method to optimally combine candidate algorithms extensively used in prediction problems - to ODTRs. Following the ``causal roadmap," we causally and statistically define the ODTR and provide an introduction to estimating it using the ODTR SuperLearner. Additionally, we highlight practical choices when implementing the algorithm, including choice of candidate algorithms, metalearners to combine the candidates, and risk functions to select the best combination of algorithms. Using simulations, we illustrate how estimating the ODTR using this SuperLearner approach can uncover treatment effect heterogeneity more effectively than traditional approaches based on fitting a parametric regression of the outcome on the treatment, covariates and treatment-covariate interactions. We investigate the implications of choices in implementing an ODTR SuperLearner at various sample sizes. Our results show the advantages of: (1) including a combination of both flexible machine learning algorithms and simple parametric estimators in the library of candidate algorithms; (2) using an ensemble metalearner to combine candidates rather than selecting only the best-performing candidate; (3) using the mean outcome under the rule as a risk function. Finally, we apply the ODTR SuperLearner to the ``Interventions" study, an ongoing randomized controlled trial, to identify which justice-involved adults with mental illness benefit most from cognitive behavioral therapy to reduce criminal re-offending.

Cluster randomized trials (CRTs) randomly assign an intervention to groups of individuals (e.g., clinics or communities) and measure outcomes on individuals in those groups. While offering many advantages, this experimental design introduces challenges that are only partially addressed by existing analytic approaches. First, outcomes are often missing for some individuals within clusters. Failing to appropriately adjust for differential outcome measurement can result in biased estimates and inference. Second, CRTs often randomize limited numbers of clusters, resulting in chance imbalances on baseline outcome predictors between arms. Failing to adaptively adjust for these imbalances and other predictive covariates can result in efficiency losses. To address these methodological gaps, we propose and evaluate a novel two-stage targeted minimum loss-based estimator to adjust for baseline covariates in a manner that optimizes precision, after controlling for baseline and postbaseline causes of missing outcomes. Finite sample simulations illustrate that our approach can nearly eliminate bias due to differential outcome measurement, while existing CRT estimators yield misleading results and inferences. Application to real data from the SEARCH community randomized trial demonstrates the gains in efficiency afforded through adaptive adjustment for baseline covariates, after controlling for missingness on individual-level outcomes.

ObjectivesTo identify incident SARS-CoV-2 infections and inform effective mitigation strategies in university settings, we piloted an integrated symptom and exposure monitoring and testing system among a cohort of university students and employees.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingA public university in California from June to August 2020.Participants2180 university students and 738 university employees.Primary outcome measuresAt baseline and endline, we tested participants for active SARS-CoV-2 infection via quantitative PCR (qPCR) test and collected blood samples for antibody testing. Participants received notifications to complete additional qPCR tests throughout the study if they reported symptoms or exposures in daily surveys or were selected for surveillance testing. Viral whole genome sequencing was performed on positive qPCR samples, and phylogenetic trees were constructed with these genomes and external genomes.ResultsOver the study period, 57 students (2.6%) and 3 employees (0.4%) were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection via qPCR test. Phylogenetic analyses revealed that a super-spreader event among undergraduates in congregate housing accounted for at least 48% of cases among study participants but did not spread beyond campus. Test positivity was higher among participants who self-reported symptoms (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 12.7; 95% CI 7.4 to 21.8) or had household exposures (IRR 10.3; 95% CI 4.8 to 22.0) that triggered notifications to test. Most (91%) participants with newly identified antibodies at endline had been diagnosed with incident infection via qPCR test during the study.ConclusionsOur findings suggest that integrated monitoring systems can successfully identify and link at-risk students to SARS-CoV-2 testing. As the study took place before the evolution of highly transmissible variants and widespread availability of vaccines and rapid antigen tests, further research is necessary to adapt and evaluate similar systems in the present context.

BackgroundSocial network analysis can elucidate tuberculosis transmission dynamics outside the home and may inform novel network-based case-finding strategies.MethodsWe assessed the association between social network characteristics and prevalent tuberculosis infection among residents (aged ≥15 years) of 9 rural communities in Eastern Uganda. Social contacts named during a census were used to create community-specific nonhousehold social networks. We evaluated whether social network structure and characteristics of first-degree contacts (sex, human immunodeficiency virus [HIV] status, tuberculosis infection) were associated with revalent tuberculosis infection (positive tuberculin skin test [TST] result) after adjusting for individual-level risk factors (age, sex, HIV status, tuberculosis contact, wealth, occupation, and Bacillus Calmette-Guérin [BCG] vaccination) with targeted maximum likelihood estimation.ResultsAmong 3 335 residents sampled for TST, 32% had a positive TST results and 4% reported a tuberculosis contact. The social network contained 15 328 first-degree contacts. Persons with the most network centrality (top 10%) (adjusted risk ratio, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.1]) and the most (top 10%) male contacts (1.5 [1.3-1.9]) had a higher risk of prevalent tuberculosis, than those in the remaining 90%. People with ≥1 contact with HIV (adjusted risk ratio, 1.3 [95% confidence interval, 1.1-1.6]) and ≥2 contacts with tuberculosis infection were more likely to have tuberculosis themselves (2.6 [ 95% confidence interval: 2.2-2.9]).ConclusionsSocial networks with higher centrality, more men, contacts with HIV, and tuberculosis infection were positively associated with tuberculosis infection. Tuberculosis transmission within measurable social networks may explain prevalent tuberculosis not associated with a household contact. Further study on network-informed tuberculosis case finding interventions is warranted.

Youth living with HIV in sub-Saharan Africa have poor HIV care outcomes. We determined the association of recent significant life-events with HIV antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation and HIV viral suppression in youth aged 15-24 years living with HIV in rural Kenya and Uganda. This was a cross-sectional analysis of 995 youth enrolled in the SEARCH Youth study. At baseline, providers assessed recent (within 6 months) life-events, defined as changes in schooling/employment, residence, partnerships, sickness, incarceration status, family strife or death, and birth/pregnancy, self-reported alcohol use, being a parent, and HIV-status disclosure. We examined the frequencies of events and their association with ART status and HIV viral suppression (2 significant life-events (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI:0.45-0.85) and consuming alcohol (aOR = 0.61, 95% CI:0.43-0.87) were associated with a lower odds of HIV viral suppression, while disclosure of HIV-status to partner (aOR = 2.39, 95% CI:1.6-3.5) or to family (aOR = 1.86, 95% CI:1.3-2.7), being a parent (aOR = 1.8, 95% CI:1.2-2.5), and being single (aOR = 1.6, 95% CI:1.3-2.1) had a higher odds. This suggest that two or more recent life-events and alcohol use are key barriers to ART initiation and achievement of viral suppression among youth living with HIV in rural East Africa.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03848728..

BackgroundAntiretroviral therapy (ART) assures major gains in health outcomes among people living with HIV, however, this benefit may not be realized by all due to care interruptions. Mobile populations comprise a subgroup that is likely to have sub-optimal care engagement, resulting in discontinuation of ART. We sought to evaluate the barriers to care engagement among highly mobile individuals living with HIV and explore options aimed at improving engagement in care for this group.MethodsQualitative in-depth interviews were conducted in 2020 among a purposive sample of twelve persons living with HIV and eight health care providers in western Kenya, within a mixed methods study of mobility in communities participating in the SEARCH trial (NCT01864603). We explored the barriers to care engagement among mobile individuals living with HIV and explored different options aimed at enhancing care engagement. These included options such as a coded card containing treatment details, alternative drug packaging to conceal drug identity, longer refills to cover travel period, wrist bands with data storage capability to enable data transfer and "warm handoff" by providers to new clinics upon transfer. Data were inductively analyzed to understand the barriers and acceptability of potential interventions to address them.ResultsStigma and lack of disclosure, rigid work schedules, and unpredictability of travel were major barriers to care engagement for highly mobile individuals living with HIV. Additionally, lack of flexibility in clinic schedules and poor provider attitude were identified as health-system-associated barriers to care engagement. Options that enhance flexibility, convenience and access to care were viewed as the most effective means of addressing the barriers to care by both patients and providers. The most preferred option was a coded card with treatment details followed by alternative drug packaging to conceal drug identity due to stigma and longer refills to cover travel periods.ConclusionHighly mobile individuals living with HIV desire responsive, flexible, convenient and patient-centered care delivery models to enhance care engagement. They embraced simple health delivery improvements such as coded cards, alternative drug packaging and longer refills to address challenges of mobility.

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) implementation is underway across sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about health care providers' experiences with PrEP provision in generalized epidemic settings, particularly outside of selected risk groups. In this study (NCT01864603), universal access to PrEP was offered to adolescents and adults at elevated risk during population-level HIV testing in rural Kenya and Uganda. Providers received training on PrEP prescribing and support from local senior clinicians. We conducted in-depth interviews with providers (n = 19) in four communities in Kenya and Uganda to explore the attitudes and experiences with implementation. Transcripts were coded and analyzed using interpretivist methods. Providers had heterogenous attitudes toward PrEP in its early implementation: some expressed enthusiasm, while others feared being blamed for "failures" (HIV seroconversions) if participants were nonadherent, or that offering PrEP would increase "immorality." Providers supported PrEP usage among HIV-serodifferent couples, whose mutual support for daily pill-taking facilitated harmony and protection from HIV. Providers reported challenges with counseling on "seasons of risk," and safely stopping and restarting PrEP. They felt uptake was hampered for women by difficulties negotiating with partners, and for youth by parental consent requirements. They believed PrEP continuation was hindered by transportation costs, stigma, pill burden, and side effects, and was facilitated by counseling, proactive management of side effects, and home/community-based provision. Providers are critical "implementation actors" in interventions to promote adoption of new technologies such as PrEP. Dedicated training and ongoing support for providers may facilitate successful scale-up.

BackgroundFewer than 10% of people with hypertension in sub-Saharan Africa are diagnosed, linked to care, and achieve hypertension control. We hypothesized that a one-time financial incentive and phone call reminder for missed appointments would increase linkage to hypertension care following community-based screening in rural Uganda and Kenya.MethodsIn a randomized controlled trial, we conducted community-based hypertension screening and enrolled adults ≥25 years with blood pressure ≥140/90 mmHg on three measures; we excluded participants with known hypertension or hypertensive emergency. The intervention was transportation reimbursement upon linkage (~$5 USD) and up to three reminder phone calls for those not linking within seven days. Control participants received a clinic referral only. Outcomes were linkage to hypertension care within 30 days (primary) and hypertension control

Growing literature has shown heterogenous effects of conditional cash incentives (CCIs) on HIV care retention. The field lacks insights into reasons why incentives impact various patients in different ways-differences that may be due to variations in psychological and social mechanisms of effect. A deeper understanding of patients' perceptions and experiences of CCIs for retention may help to clarify these mechanisms. We conducted a qualitative study embedded in the ADAPT-R trial (NCT#02338739), a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) that evaluated economic incentives to support retention in HIV care among persons living with HIV (PLHIV) initiating antiretroviral therapy in Kenya. Participants who attended their scheduled clinic visits received an incentive of approximately $4 each visit. Interviews were conducted between July 2016 and June 2017 with 39 participants to explore attitudes and experiences with economic incentives conditional on care engagement. Analyses revealed that incentives helped PLHIV prioritize care-seeking by alleviating transport barriers and food insecurity: "I decided to forgo [work] and attend clinic […] the voucher relieved me". Patients who borrowed money for care-seeking reported feeling relieved from the burden of indebtedness to others: "I borrow with confidence that I will pay after my appointment." Incentives fostered their autonomy, and enabled them to support others: "I used the money to buy some clothes and Pampers for the children." Participants who were intrinsically motivated to engage in care ("my life depends on the drugs, not the incentive"), and those who mistrusted researchers, reported being less prompted by the incentive itself. For patients not already prioritizing care-seeking, incentives facilitated care engagement through alleviating transport costs, indebtedness and food insecurity, and also supported social role fulfillment. Conditional cash incentives may be an important cue to action to improve progression through the HIV treatment cascade, and contribute to better care retention.

BackgroundWe tested the hypothesis that patient-centered, streamlined human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care would achieve lower mortality than the standard treatment model for persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL in the setting of population-wide HIV testing.MethodsIn the SEARCH (Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health) Study (NCT01864603), 32 communities in rural Uganda and Kenya were randomized to country-guided antiretroviral therapy (ART) versus streamlined ART care that included rapid ART start, visit spacing, flexible clinic hours, and welcoming environment. We assessed persons with HIV and CD4 ≤ 350/uL, ART eligible in both arms, and estimated the effect of streamlined care on ART initiation and mortality at 3 years. Comparisons between study arms used a cluster-level analysis with survival estimates from Kaplan-Meier; estimates of ART start among ART-naive persons treated death as a competing risk.ResultsAmong 13 266 adults with HIV, 2973 (22.4%) had CD4 ≤ 350/uL. Of these, 33% were new diagnoses, and 10% were diagnosed but ART-naive. Men with HIV were almost twice as likely as women with HIV to have CD4 ≤ 350/uL and be untreated (15% vs 8%, respectively). Streamlined care reduced mortality by 28% versus control (risk ratio [RR] = 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI]: .56, .93; P = .02). Despite eligibility in both arms, persons with CD4 ≤ 350/uL started ART faster under streamlined care versus control (76% vs 43% by 12 months, respectively; P

BackgroundHypertension treatment reduces morbidity and mortality yet has not been broadly implemented in many low-resource settings, including sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We hypothesized that a patient-centered integrated chronic disease model that included hypertension treatment and leveraged the HIV care system would reduce mortality among adults with uncontrolled hypertension in rural Kenya and Uganda.Methods and findingsThis is a secondary analysis of the SEARCH trial (NCT:01864603), in which 32 communities underwent baseline population-based multidisease testing, including hypertension screening, and were randomized to standard country-guided treatment or to a patient-centered integrated chronic care model including treatment for hypertension, diabetes, and HIV. Patient-centered care included on-site introduction to clinic staff at screening, nursing triage to expedite visits, reduced visit frequency, flexible clinic hours, and a welcoming clinic environment. The analytic population included nonpregnant adults (≥18 years) with baseline uncontrolled hypertension (blood pressure ≥140/90 mm Hg). The primary outcome was 3-year all-cause mortality with comprehensive population-level assessment. Secondary outcomes included hypertension control assessed at a population level at year 3 (defined per country guidelines as at least 1 blood pressure measure

BackgroundThe SEARCH study provided community-based HIV and multidisease testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) to 32 communities in East Africa and reported no statistically significant difference in 3-year HIV incidence. We used mathematical modeling to estimate the effect of control arm viral suppression and community mixing on SEARCH trial outcomes.SettingUganda and Kenya.MethodsUsing the individual-based HIV modeling software EMOD-HIV, we configured a new model of SEARCH communities. The model was parameterized using demographic, HIV prevalence, male circumcision, and viral suppression data and calibrated to HIV prevalence, ART coverage, and population size. Using assumptions about ART scale-up in the control arm, degree of community mixing, and effect of baseline testing, we estimated comparative HIV incidence under multiple scenarios.ResultsBefore the trial results, we predicted that SEARCH would report a 4%-40% reduction between arms, depending on control arm ART linkage rates and community mixing. With universal baseline testing followed by rapidly expanded ART eligibility and uptake, modeled effect sizes were smaller than the study was powered to detect. Using interim viral suppression data, we estimated 3-year cumulative incidence would have been reduced by up to 27% in the control arm and 43% in the intervention arm compared with a counterfactual without universal baseline testing.ConclusionsOur model suggests that the active control arm substantially reduced expected effect size and power of the SEARCH study. However, compared with a counterfactual "true control" without increased ART linkage because of baseline testing, SEARCH reduced HIV incidence by up to 43%.

BackgroundSocial isolation among HIV-positive persons might be an important barrier to care. Using data from the SEARCH Study in rural Kenya and Uganda, we constructed 32 community-wide, sociocentric networks and evaluated whether less socially connected HIV-positive persons were less likely to know their status, have initiated treatment, and be virally suppressed.MethodsBetween 2013 and 2014, 168,720 adult residents in the SEARCH Study were census-enumerated, offered HIV testing, and asked to name social contacts. Social networks were constructed by matching named contacts to other residents. We characterized the resulting networks and estimated risk ratios (aRR) associated with poor HIV care outcomes, adjusting for sociodemographic factors and clustering by community with generalized estimating equations.ResultsThe sociocentric networks contained 170,028 residents (nodes) and 362,965 social connections (edges). Among 11,239 HIV-positive persons who named ≥1 contact, 30.9% were previously undiagnosed, 43.7% had not initiated treatment, and 49.4% had viral nonsuppression. Lower social connectedness, measured by the number of persons naming an HIV-positive individual as a contact (in-degree), was associated with poorer outcomes in Uganda, but not Kenya. Specifically, HIV-positive persons in the lowest connectedness tercile were less likely to be previously diagnosed (Uganda-West aRR: 0.89 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.83, 0.96]; Uganda-East aRR: 0.85 [95% CI: 0.76, 0.96]); on treatment (Uganda-West aRR: 0.88 [95% CI: 0.80, 0.98]; Uganda-East aRR: 0.81 [0.72, 0.92]), and suppressed (Uganda-West aRR: 0.84 [95% CI: 0.73, 0.96]; Uganda-East aRR: 0.74 [95% CI: 0.58, 0.94]) than those in the highest connectedness tercile.ConclusionsHIV-positive persons named as a contact by fewer people may be at higher risk for poor HIV care outcomes, suggesting opportunities for targeted interventions.

IntroductionAntiretroviral-based HIV prevention, including pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), is expanding in generalized epidemic settings, but additional prevention options are needed for individuals with periodic, high-risk sexual exposures. Non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) is recommended in global guidelines. However, in Africa, awareness of and access to PEP for sexual exposures are limited. We assessed feasibility, acceptability, uptake and adherence in a pilot study of a patient-centred PEP programme with options for facility- or community-based service delivery.MethodsAfter population-level HIV testing with universal access to PrEP for persons at elevated HIV risk (SEARCH Trial:NCT01864603), we conducted a pilot PEP study in five rural communities in Kenya and Uganda between December 2018 and May 2019. We assessed barriers to PEP in the population and implemented an intervention to address these barriers, building on existing in-country PEP protocols. We used community leaders for sensitization. Test kits and medications were acquired through the Ministry of Health supply chain and healthcare providers based at the Ministry of Health clinics were trained on PEP delivery. Additional intervention components were (a)PEP availability seven days/week, (b)PEP hotline staffed by providers and (c)option for out-of-facility medication delivery. We assessed implementation using the Proctor framework and measured seroconversions via repeat HIV testing. Successful "PEP completion" was defined as self-reported adherence over four weeks of therapy with post-PEP HIV testing.ResultsCommunity leaders were able to sensitize and mobilize for PEP. The Ministry of Health supplied test kits and PEP medications; after training, healthcare providers delivered the 28-day regimen with high completion rates. Among 124 persons who sought PEP, 66% were female, 24% were ≤25 years and 42% were fisherfolk. Of these, 20% reported exposure with a serodifferent partner, 72% with a new or existing relationship and 7% from transactional sex. 12% of all visits were conducted at out-of-facility community-based sites; 35% of participants had ≥1 out-of-facility visit. No serious adverse events were reported. Overall, 85% met the definition of PEP completion. There were no HIV seroconversions.ConclusionsAmong individuals with elevated-risk exposures in rural East African communities, patient-centred PEP was feasible, acceptable and provides a promising addition to the current prevention toolkit.

ObjectiveSub-Saharan Africa faces twin epidemics of HIV and noncommunicable diseases including hypertension. Integrating hypertension care into chronic HIV care is a global priority, but cost estimates are lacking. In the SEARCH Study, we performed population-level HIV/hypertension testing, and offered integrated streamlined chronic care. Here, we estimate costs for integrated hypertension/HIV care for HIV-positive individuals, and costs for hypertension care for HIV-negative individuals in the same clinics.DesignMicrocosting analysis of healthcare expenditures within Ugandan HIV clinics.MethodsSEARCH (NCT: 01864603) conducted community health campaigns for diagnosis and linkage to care for both HIV and hypertension. HIV-positive patients received hypertension/HIV care jointly including blood pressure monitoring and medications; HIV-negative patients received hypertension care at the same clinics. Within 10 Ugandan study communities during 2015-2016, we estimated incremental annual per-patient hypertension care costs using micro-costing techniques, time-and-motion personnel studies, and administrative/clinical records review.ResultsOverall, 70 HIV-positive and 2355 HIV-negative participants received hypertension care. For HIV-positive participants, average incremental cost of hypertension care was $6.29 per person per year, a 2.1% marginal increase over prior estimates for HIV care alone. For HIV-negative participants, hypertension care cost $11.39 per person per year, a 3.8% marginal increase over HIV care costs. Key costs for HIV-positive patients included hypertension medications ($6.19 per patient per year; 98% of total) and laboratory testing ($0.10 per patient per year; 2%). Key costs for HIV-negative patients included medications ($5.09 per patient per year; 45%) and clinic staff salaries ($3.66 per patient per year; 32%).ConclusionFor only 2-4% estimated additional costs, hypertension care was added to HIV care, and also expanded to all HIV-negative patients in prototypic Ugandan clinics, demonstrating substantial synergy. Our results should encourage accelerated scale-up of hypertension care into existing clinics.

BackgroundOral pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is highly effective for HIV prevention, but data are limited on HIV incidence among PrEP users in generalized epidemic settings, particularly outside of selected risk groups. We performed a population-based PrEP study in rural Kenya and Uganda and sought to evaluate both changes in HIV incidence and clinical and virologic outcomes following seroconversion on PrEP.Methods and findingsDuring population-level HIV testing of individuals ≥15 years in 16 communities in the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) study (NCT01864603), we offered universal access to PrEP with enhanced counseling for persons at elevated HIV risk (based on serodifferent partnership, machine learning-based risk score, or self-identified HIV risk). We offered rapid or same-day PrEP initiation and flexible service delivery with follow-up visits at facilities or community-based sites at 4, 12, and every 12 weeks up to week 144. Among participants with incident HIV infection after PrEP initiation, we offered same-day antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation and analyzed HIV RNA, tenofovir hair concentrations, drug resistance, and viral suppression (

BackgroundAdditional progress towards HIV epidemic control requires understanding who remains at risk of HIV infection in the context of high uptake of universal testing and treatment (UTT). We sought to characterize seroconverters and risk factors in the SEARCH UTT trial (NCT01864603), which achieved high uptake of universal HIV testing and ART coverage in 32 communities of adults (≥15 years) in rural Uganda and Kenya.MethodsIn a pooled cohort of 117,114 individuals with baseline HIV negative test results, we described those who seroconverted within 3 years, calculated gender-specific HIV incidence rates, evaluated adjusted risk ratios (aRR) for seroconversion using multivariable targeted maximum likelihood estimation, and assessed potential infection sources based on self-report.ResultsOf 704 seroconverters, 63% were women. Young (15-24 years) men comprised a larger proportion of seroconverters in Western Uganda (18%) than Eastern Uganda (6%) or Kenya (10%). After adjustment for other risk factors, men who were mobile [≥1 month of prior year living outside community] (aRR:1.68; 95%CI:1.09,2.60) or who HIV tested at home vs. health fair (aRR:2.44; 95%CI:1.89,3.23) were more likely to seroconvert. Women who were aged ≤24 years (aRR:1.91; 95%CI:1.27,2.90), mobile (aRR:1.49; 95%CI:1.04,2.11), or reported a prior HIV test (aRR:1.34; 95%CI:1.06,1.70), or alcohol use (aRR:2.07; 95%CI:1.34,3.22) were more likely to seroconvert. Among survey responders (N = 607, 86%), suspected infection source was more likely for women than men to be ≥10 years older (28% versus 8%) or a spouse (51% vs. 31%) and less likely to be transactional sex (10% versus 16%).ConclusionIn the context of universal testing and treatment, additional strategies tailored to regional variability are needed to address HIV infection risks of young women, alcohol users, mobile populations, and those engaged in transactional sex to further reduce HIV incidence rates.

HIV-related stigma is a frequently cited barrier to HIV testing and care engagement. A nuanced understanding of HIV-related stigma is critical for developing stigma-reduction interventions to optimize HIV-related outcomes. This qualitative study documented HIV-related stigma across eight communities in east Africa during the baseline year of a large HIV test-and-treat trial (SEARCH, NCT: 01864603), prior to implementation of widespread community HIV testing campaigns and efforts to link individuals with HIV to care and treatment. Findings revealed experiences of enacted, internalized and anticipated stigma that were highly gendered, and more pronounced in communities with lower HIV prevalence; women, overwhelmingly, both held and were targets of stigmatizing attitudes about HIV. Past experiences with enacted stigma included acts of segregation, verbal discrimination, physical violence, humiliation and rejection. Narratives among women, in particular, revealed acute internalized stigma including feelings of worthlessness, shame, embarrassment, and these resulted in anxiety and depression, including suicidality among a small number of women. Anticipated stigma included fears of marital dissolution, verbal and physical abuse, gossip and public ridicule. Anticipated stigma was especially salient for women who held internalized stigma and who had experienced enacted stigma from their partners. Anticipated stigma led to care avoidance, care-seeking at remote facilities, and hiding of HIV medications. Interventions aimed at reducing individual and community-level forms of stigma may be needed to improve the lives of PLHIV and fully realize the promise of test-and-treat strategies.

The Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH), a universal test and treat (UTT) trial, implemented 'Streamlined Care'-a multicomponent strategy including rapid linkage to care and antiretroviral therapy (ART) start, 3-monthly refills, viral load counseling, and accessible, patient-centered care provision. To understand patient and provider experiences of Streamlined Care to inform future care innovations, we conducted in-depth interviews with patients (n = 18) and providers (n = 28) at baseline (2014) and follow-up (2015) (n = 17 patients; n = 21 providers). Audio recordings were transcribed, translated, and deductively and inductively coded. Streamlined Care helped to decongest clinic spaces and de-stigmatize human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) care. Patients credited the individualized counselling, provider-assisted HIV status disclosure, and providers' knowledge of patient's drug schedules, availability, and phone call reminders for their care engagement. However, for some, denial (repeated testing to disprove HIV+ results), feeling healthy, limited understanding of the benefits of early ART, and anticipated side-effects, and mistrust of researchers hindered rapid ART initiation. Patients' short and long-term mobility proved challenging for both patients and providers. Providers viewed viral load counselling as a powerful tool to convince otherwise healthy and high-CD4 patients to initiate ART. Patient-centered HIV care models should build on the successes of Streamlined Care, while addressing persistent barriers.#NCT01864683-https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT01864603.

BackgroundHIV differentiated service delivery (DSD) models are scaling up in resource-limited settings for stable patients; less is known about DSD outcomes for patients with viremia. We evaluated the effect on viral suppression (VS) of a streamlined care DSD model implemented in the SEARCH randomized universal test and treat trial in rural Uganda and Kenya (NCT:01864603).MethodsWe included HIV-infected adults at baseline (2013) who were country guideline antiretroviral therapy (ART) eligible (prior ART experience or CD4 ≤ 350) with ≥1 HIV clinic visit between 2013 and 2017 in SEARCH communities randomized to intervention (N = 16) or control (N = 16). We assessed the effect of streamlined care in intervention community clinics (patient-centered care, increased appointment spacing, improved clinic access, reminders, and tracking) on VS at 3 years. Analysis was stratified by the baseline care status: ART-experienced with viremia, ART-naïve with CD4 ≤ 350, or ART-experienced with VS.ResultsAmong 6190 ART-eligible persons in care, year 3 VS was 90% in intervention and 87% in control arms (RR 1.03, 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.06). Among ART-experienced persons with baseline viremia, streamlined care was associated with higher VS (67% vs 47%, RR 1.41, 95% CI: 1.05 to 1.91). Among ART-naïve persons, VS was not significantly higher with streamlined care (83% vs 79%, RR 1.05, 95% CI: 0.95 to 1.16). Among ART-experienced persons with baseline VS, nearly all remained virally suppressed in both arms (97% vs 95%, RR 1.01, 95% CI: 1.00 to 1.03).ConclusionsStreamlined care was associated with higher viral suppression among ART-experienced patients with viremia in this randomized evaluation of ART-eligible patients who were in care after universal HIV testing.

BackgroundIn generalized epidemic settings, strategies are needed to prioritize individuals at higher risk of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) acquisition for prevention services. We used population-level HIV testing data from rural Kenya and Uganda to construct HIV risk scores and assessed their ability to identify seroconversions.MethodsDuring 2013-2017, >75% of residents in 16 communities in the SEARCH study were tested annually for HIV. In this population, we evaluated 3 strategies for using demographic factors to predict the 1-year risk of HIV seroconversion: membership in ≥1 known "risk group" (eg, having a spouse living with HIV), a "model-based" risk score constructed with logistic regression, and a "machine learning" risk score constructed with the Super Learner algorithm. We hypothesized machine learning would identify high-risk individuals more efficiently (fewer persons targeted for a fixed sensitivity) and with higher sensitivity (for a fixed number targeted) than either other approach.ResultsA total of 75 558 persons contributed 166 723 person-years of follow-up; 519 seroconverted. Machine learning improved efficiency. To achieve a fixed sensitivity of 50%, the risk-group strategy targeted 42% of the population, the model-based strategy targeted 27%, and machine learning targeted 18%. Machine learning also improved sensitivity. With an upper limit of 45% targeted, the risk-group strategy correctly classified 58% of seroconversions, the model-based strategy 68%, and machine learning 78%.ConclusionsMachine learning improved classification of individuals at risk of HIV acquisition compared with a model-based approach or reliance on known risk groups and could inform targeting of prevention strategies in generalized epidemic settings.Clinical trials registrationNCT01864603.

IntroductionThe rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) has been associated with reductions in HIV-related stigma, but pathways through which this reduction occurs are poorly understood. In the newer context of universal test and treat (UTT) interventions, where rapid diffusion of ART uptake takes place, there is an opportunity to understand the processes through which HIV-related stigma can decline, and how UTT strategies may precipitate more rapid and widespread changes in stigma. This qualitative study sought to evaluate how a UTT intervention influenced changes in beliefs, attitudes and behaviours related to HIV.MethodsLongitudinal qualitative in-depth semi-structured interview data were collected within a community-cluster randomized UTT trial, the Sustainable East Africa Research in Community Health (SEARCH) study, annually over three rounds (2014 to 2016) from two cohorts of adults (n = 32 community leaders, and n = 112 community members) in eight rural communities in Uganda and Kenya. Data were inductively analysed to develop new theory for understanding the pathways of stigma decline.ResultsWe present an emergent theoretical model of pathways through which HIV-related stigma may decline: internalized stigma may be reduced by two processes accelerated through the uptake and successful usage of ART: first, a reduced fear of dying and increased optimism for prolonged and healthy years of life; second, a restoration of perceived social value and fulfilment of subjective role expectations via restored physical strength and productivity. Anticipated stigma may be reduced in response to widespread engagement in HIV testing, leading to an increasing number of HIV status disclosures in a community, "normalizing" disclosure and reducing fears. Improvements in the perceived quality of HIV care lead to people living with HIV (PLHIV) seeking care in nearby facilities, seeing other known community members living with HIV, reducing isolation and facilitating opportunities for social support and "solidarity." Finally, enacted stigma may be reduced in response to the community viewing the healthy bodies of PLHIV successfully engaged in treatment, which lessens the fears that trigger enacted stigma; it becomes no longer socially normative to stigmatize PLHIV. This process may be reinforced through public health messaging and anti-discrimination laws.ConclusionsDeclines in HIV-related stigma appear to underway and explained by social processes accelerated by UTT efforts. Widespread implementation of UTT shows promise for reducing multiple dimensions of stigma, which is critical for improving health outcomes among PLHIV.

BackgroundPopulation-level estimates of disease prevalence and control are needed to assess prevention and treatment strategies. However, available data often suffer from differential missingness. For example, population-level HIV viral suppression is the proportion of all HIV-positive persons with suppressed viral replication. Individuals with measured HIV status, and among HIV-positive individuals those with measured viral suppression, likely differ from those without such measurements.MethodsWe discuss three sets of assumptions to identify population-level suppression in the intervention arm of the SEARCH Study (NCT01864603), a community randomized trial in rural Kenya and Uganda (2013-2017). Using data on nearly 100,000 participants, we compare estimates from (1) an unadjusted approach assuming data are missing-completely-at-random (MCAR); (2) stratification on age group, sex, and community; and (3) targeted maximum likelihood estimation to adjust for a larger set of baseline and time-updated variables.ResultsDespite high measurement coverage, estimates of population-level viral suppression varied by identification assumption. Unadjusted estimates were most optimistic: 50% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 46%, 54%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 80% (95% CI = 78%, 82%) at year 1, 85% (95% CI = 83%, 86%) at year 2, and 85% (95% CI = 83%, 87%) at year 3. Stratifying on baseline predictors yielded slightly lower estimates, and full adjustment reduced estimates meaningfully: 42% (95% CI = 37%, 46%) of HIV-positive persons suppressed at baseline, 71% (95% CI = 69%, 73%) at year 1, 76% (95% CI = 74%, 78%) at year 2, and 79% (95% CI = 77%, 81%) at year 3.ConclusionsEstimation of population-level disease burden and control requires appropriate adjustment for missing data. Even in large studies with limited missingness, estimates relying on the MCAR assumption or baseline stratification should be interpreted cautiously.

Objective(s)We sought to determine whether universal 'test and treat' (UTT) can achieve gains in viral suppression beyond universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) eligibility during pregnancy and postpartum, among women living with HIV.DesignA community cluster randomized trial.MethodsThe SEARCH UTT trial compared an intervention of annual population testing and universal ART with a control of baseline population testing with ART by country standard, including ART eligibility for all pregnant/postpartum women, in 32 communities in Kenya and Uganda. When testing, women were asked about current pregnancy and live births over the prior year and, if HIV-infected, had their viral load measured. Between arms, we compared population-level viral suppression (HIV RNA

Few studies have sought to understand factors influencing uptake and continuation of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) among young adults in sub-Saharan Africa in the context of population-based delivery of open-label PrEP. To address this gap, this qualitative study was implemented within the SEARCH study (NCT#01864603) in Kenya and Uganda, which achieved near-universal HIV testing, and offered PrEP in 16 intervention communities beginning in 2016-2017. Focus group discussions (8 groups, n = 88 participants) and in-depth interviews (n = 23) with young adults who initiated or declined PrEP were conducted in five communities, to explore PrEP-related beliefs and attitudes, HIV risk perceptions, motivations for uptake and continuation, and experiences. Grounded theoretical methods were used to analyze data. Young people felt personally vulnerable to HIV, but perceived the severity of HIV to be low, due to the success of antiretroviral therapy (ART): daily pill-taking was more threatening than the disease itself. Motivations for PrEP were highly gendered: young men viewed PrEP as a vehicle for safely pursuing multiple partners, while young women saw PrEP as a means to control risks in the context of engagement in transactional sex and limited agency to negotiate condom use and partner testing. Rumors, HIV/ART-related stigma, and desire for "proof" of efficacy militated against uptake, and many women required partners' permission to take PrEP. Uptake was motivated by high perceived HIV risk, and beliefs that PrEP use supported life goals. PrEP was often discontinued due to dissolution of partnerships/changing risk, unsupportive partners/peers, or early side effects/pill burden. Despite high perceived risks and interest, PrEP was received with moral ambivalence because of its associations with HIV/ART and stigmatized behaviors. Delivery models that promote youth access, frame messaging on wellness and goals, and foster partner and peer support, may facilitate uptake among young people.

ObjectiveTo assess the impact of alcohol use on HIV care cascade outcomes.DesignCross-sectional analyses.MethodsWe evaluated HIV care cascade outcomes and alcohol use in adults (≥15 years) during baseline (2013--2014) population-based HIV testing in 28 Kenyan and Ugandan communities. 'Alcohol use' included any current use and was stratified by Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test-Concise (AUDIT-C) scores: nonhazardous/low (1--3 men/1--2 women), hazardous/medium (4--5 men/3--5 women), hazardous/high (6--7), hazardous/very-high (8--12). We estimated cascade outcomes and relative risks associated with each drinking level using targeted maximum likelihood estimation, adjusting for confounding and missing measures.ResultsAmong 118 923 adults, 10 268 (9%) tested HIV-positive. Of those, 10 067 (98%) completed alcohol screening: 1626 (16%) reported drinking, representing 7% of women (467/6499) and 33% of men (1 159/3568). Drinking levels were: low (48%), medium (34%), high (11%), very high (7%). Drinkers were less likely to be previously HIV diagnosed (58% [95% CI: 55--61%]) than nondrinkers [66% (95% CI: 65-67%); RR: 0.87 (95% CI: 0.83-0.92)]. If previously diagnosed, drinkers were less likely to be on ART [77% (95% CI: 73-80%)] than nondrinkers [83% (95% CI 82-84%); RR: 0.93 (95% CI: 0.89-0.97)]. If on ART, there was no association between alcohol use and viral suppression; however, very-high-level users were less likely to be suppressed [RR: 0.80 (95% CI: 0.68-0.94)] versus nondrinkers. On a population level, viral suppression was 38% (95% CI: 36-41%) among drinkers and 44% (95% CI: 43-45%) among nondrinkers [RR: 0.87 (95% CI 0.82-0.94)], an association seen at all drinking levels.ConclusionAlcohol use was associated with lower viral suppression; this may be because of decreased HIV diagnosis and ART use.

IntroductionReal-time electronic adherence monitoring (EAM) systems could inform on-going risk assessment for HIV viraemia and be used to personalize viral load testing schedules. We evaluated the potential of real-time EAM (transferred via cellular signal) and standard EAM (downloaded via USB cable) in rural Uganda to inform individually differentiated viral load testing strategies by applying machine learning approaches.MethodsWe evaluated an observational cohort of persons living with HIV and treated with antiretroviral therapy (ART) who were monitored longitudinally with standard EAM from 2005 to 2011 and real-time EAM from 2011 to 2015. Super learner, an ensemble machine learning method, was used to develop a tool for targeting viral load testing to detect viraemia (>1000 copies/ml) based on clinical (CD4 count, ART regimen), viral load and demographic data, together with EAM-based adherence. Using sample-splitting (cross-validation), we evaluated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (cvAUC), potential for EAM data to selectively defer viral load tests while minimizing delays in viraemia detection, and performance compared to WHO-recommended testing schedules.ResultsIn total, 443 persons (1801 person-years) and 485 persons (930 person-years) contributed to standard and real-time EAM analyses respectively. In the 2011 to 2015 dataset, addition of real-time EAM (cvAUC: 0.88; 95% CI: 0.83, 0.93) significantly improved prediction compared to clinical/demographic data alone (cvAUC: 0.78; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.86; p = 0.03). In the 2005 to 2011 dataset, addition of standard EAM (cvAUC: 0.77; 95% CI: 0.72, 0.81) did not significantly improve prediction compared to clinical/demographic data alone (cvAUC: 0.70; 95% CI: 0.64, 0.76; p = 0.08). A hypothetical testing strategy using real-time EAM to guide deferral of viral load tests would have reduced the number of tests by 32% while detecting 87% of viraemia cases without delay. By comparison, the WHO-recommended testing schedule would have reduced the number of tests by 69%, but resulted in delayed detection of viraemia a mean of 74 days for 84% of individuals with viraemia. Similar rules derived from standard EAM also resulted in potential testing frequency reductions.ConclusionsOur machine learning approach demonstrates potential for combining EAM data with other clinical measures to develop a selective testing rule that reduces number of viral load tests ordered, while still identifying those at highest risk for viraemia.

Rates of Isoniazid Preventive Therapy (IPT) completion remain low in programmatic settings in sub-Saharan Africa. Differentiated HIV care models may improve IPT completion by addressing joint barriers to IPT and HIV treatment. However, the impact of differentiated care on IPT completion remains unknown. In a cross-sectional study of people with HIV on antiretroviral therapy in 5 communities in rural Uganda, we compared IPT completion between patients receiving HIV care via a differentiated care model versus a standard HIV care model and assessed multi-level predictors of IPT completion. A total of 103/144 (72%) patients received differentiated care and 85/161 (53%) received standard care completed IPT (p < 0.01). Adjusting for age, gender and community, patients receiving differentiated care had higher odds of completing IPT (aOR: 2.6, 95% CI: 1.5-4.5, p < 0.01). Predictors of IPT completion varied by the care model, and differentiated care modified the positive association between treatment completion and the belief in the efficacy of IPT and the negative association with side-effects. Patients receiving a multi-component differentiated care model had a higher odds of IPT completion than standard care, and the model's impact on health beliefs, social support, and perceived side effects to IPT may underlie this positive association.

BackgroundHIV-infected youth in sub-Saharan Africa are less likely to initiate antiretroviral therapy (ART) than older adults.Setting and methodsAdult (≥15 years) residents enumerated during a census in 32 communities in rural Kenya and Uganda named social contacts in 5 domains: health, money, emotional support, food, and free time. Named contacts were matched to other enumerated residents to build social networks among 150,395 adults; 90% were tested for HIV at baseline. Among youth (15-24 years) who were ART naive at baseline (2013-2014), we evaluated whether having ≥1 network contact who was HIV infected predicted ART initiation within 3 years and modification of this association by age and strength of contact, using logistic regression with robust standard errors.ResultsAmong 1120 HIV-infected youth who were ART naive at baseline, 805 remained alive and community residents after 3 years. Of these, 270 (33.5%) named at least one baseline HIV-infected contact; 70% (569/805) subsequently initiated ART. Youth with ≥1 HIV-infected same-age baseline contact were more likely to initiate ART [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 2.95; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.49 to 5.86] than those with no HIV-infected contact, particularly if the contact was a strong tie (named in >1 domain; aOR, 5.33; 95% CI: 3.34 to 8.52). When nonhousehold contacts were excluded, having an HIV-infected same age contact who was a strong tie remained associated with ART initiation (aOR, 2.81; 95% CI: 1.76 to 4.49).ConclusionsInterventions that increase and strengthen existing social connections to other HIV-infected peers at the time of HIV diagnosis may increase ART initiation among HIV-infected youth.

BackgroundImplementation science focuses on evaluating strategies for delivering evidence-based interventions to improve HIV prevention and treatment. The effectiveness of these implementation strategies is often context-dependent and reconciling the desire to produce generalizable knowledge in the face of these contextual interventions is a central challenge for implementation science researchers.MethodsWe provide an overview of the causal transportability theory and conceptualize context under this framework. We review how causal graphs can be used to illustrate the assumptions necessary to apply the results of a study to a new context, and we illustrate this approach using an example of a community adherence group intervention that aims to improve retention in HIV care. Finally, we discuss several key insights highlighted by the transportability theory that are relevant to implementation science researchers.ResultsBy adopting causal transportability to consider how context may affect the success of an implementation strategy, researchers can formally diagnose when the results of a study are likely to generalize to a given setting. Moreover, selection diagrams can highlight what additional measurements would be needed in a target population to estimate the effect of an implementation strategy in that target population without having to repeat the initial study.ConclusionsTransportability translates intuition about context-dependent interventions and external validity into actionable and testable insight.