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Objective To estimate the risk of an emergency department (ED)/inpatient visit due to complications in people with diabetes and compare them to their non-diabetes counterparts. Methods This matched retrospective cohort study used a linked dataset in Tasmania, Australia for the 2004–17 period. People with diabetes (n = 45 378) were matched on age, sex and geographical regions with people without diabetes (n = 90 756) based on propensity score matching. The risk of an ED/inpatient visit related to each complication was estimated using negative binomial regression. Results In people with diabetes, the combined ED and admission rates per 10 000 person-years were considerable, especially for macrovascular complications (ranging from 31.8 (lower extremity amputation) to 205.2 (heart failure)). The adjusted incidence rate ratios of ED/inpatient visits were: retinopathy 59.1 (confidence interval 25.8, 135.7), lower extremity amputation 11.1 (8.8, 14.1), foot ulcer/gangrene 9.5 (8.1, 11.2), nephropathy 7.4 (5.4, 10.1), dialysis 6.5 (3.8, 10.9), transplant 6.3 (2.2, 17.8), vitreous haemorrhage 6.0 (3.7, 9.8), fatal myocardial infarction 3.4 (2.3, 5.1), kidney failure 3.3 (2.3, 4.5), heart failure 2.9 (2.7, 3.1), angina pectoris 2.1 (2.0, 2.3), ischaemic heart disease 2.1 (1.9, 2.3), neuropathy 1.9 (1.7, 2.0), non-fatal myocardial infarction 1.7 (1.6, 1.8), blindness/low vision 1.4 (0.8, 2.5), non-fatal stroke 1.4 (1.3, 1.6), fatal stroke 1.3 (0.9, 2.1) and transient ischaemic attack 1.1 (1.0, 1.2). Conclusions Our results demonstrated the high demand on hospital services due to diabetes complications (especially macrovascular complications) and highlighted the importance of preventing and properly managing microvascular complications. These findings will support future resource allocation to reduce the increasing burden of diabetes in Australia.

Air pollution is associated with cardiovascular disease and mortality. Most studies have focussed on urban or traffic-related pollution, and less is known about the impacts from bushfire smoke on cardiovascular autonomic function, although it is associated with increased sudden cardiac death and mortality. We sought to investigate its instantaneous and short-term impacts on heart rate variability (HRV).Twenty-four (24)-hour Holter electrocardiography (ECG) was repeated twice (during bushfire [Phase 1] and then clean air [Phase 2]) in 32 participants from two Australian towns (Warburton and Traralgon, Victoria) surrounding planned burning areas. This was compared with 10 control participants in another town (Maffra, Victoria) with two clean air assessments during the same periods. The primary HRV parameters assessed were those assessing overall HRV (Standard Deviation of Normal-to-Normal intervals [SDNN]), long-term HRV (Standard Deviation of the Average of Normal Sinus-to-Normal Sinus intervals for each 5-minutes [SDANN]), low frequency [LF]) and short-term HRV (Root Mean Square of Successive Differences between N-N intervals [RMSSD], High Frequency [HF], LF:HF ratio). Average concentrations of particulate matter2.5 μm in diameter (PMMean PMExposure to the bushfire smoke was independently associated with reduced overall and long-term HRV. Our findings suggest that imbalance in cardiac autonomic function is a key mechanism of adverse cardiovascular effects of bushfire smoke.

Current guidelines recommend thyroid-stimulating hormone (TSH) for initial biochemical evaluation of thyroid function, with borderline TSH abnormalities a common finding. The likelihood of a borderline TSH progressing to overt abnormality is not well characterised at the population level.To determine risk factors and likelihood for progression of borderline TSH to overt abnormality.Population-based retrospective longitudinal data-linkage study for TSH tests performed in Tasmania (1996-2013). Kaplan-Meier methodology was used to summarise conversion time for overt TSH elevation (≥10 mU/L) and overt suppression (≤0.1 mU/L) in patients whose initial TSH was borderline elevated (BeTSH; 4.0-9.99 mU/L) and borderline suppressed (BsTSH; 0.10-0.39 mU/L) respectively. Main outcome measures are the progression from borderline to overt TSH abnormality.A total of 1 296 060 TSH tests was performed on 367 917 patients. Of these, 14 507 (3.9%) patients had BeTSH on initial assessment; mean age 51.4 ± 21.8 years and median TSH of 5.0 mU/L (interquartile range (IQR) 4.4, 5.2). Patients aged ≥80 years were most likely to progress (hazard ratio (HR) = 2.09 compared with age20 years reference group (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.64, 2.68)). Patients aged 20-39 years had the second-highest rate of progression (HR = 1.49 (95% CI: 1.18, 1.88)). Seven thousand, eight hundred and eighty-three (2.14%) patients had BsTSH; mean age 50.7 ± 22.1 years and median TSH 0.30 mU/L (IQR 0.22, 0.35). Patients aged 60-79 years had the highest rate of progression to overt TSH suppression (HR = 2.47 compared with age20 years reference group (95% CI: 1.88, 3.22)).Follow-up intervals for patients with borderline TSH abnormalities should take into account patient age as a progression risk factor.

Purpose Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and debilitating chronic lung disease with a high symptom burden, which has a substantial impact on health-related quality of life (HRQoL). Our study aimed to assess the suitability of the EuroQol five-dimension (EQ-5D-5L) and the Assessment of Quality of Life- eight-dimension (AQoL-8D) questionnaires in measuring HRQoL as health state utility values (HSUVs) in an Australian IPF cohort. Methods Data for estimation of health state utility values (HSUVs) were collected from participants of the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR) using self-administered surveys which included the EQ-5D-5L and the AQoL-8D. Data on lung function and disease specific HRQoL instruments were collected from the AIPFR. Performance of the two instruments was evaluated based on questionnaire practicality, agreement between the two instruments and test performance (internal and construct validity). Results Overall completion rates for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D were 96% and 85%, respectively. Mean (median) HSUVs were 0.65 (0.70) and 0.69 (0.72) for the EQ-5D-5L and AQoL-8D, respectively. There was reasonable agreement between the two instruments based on the Bland–Altman plot mean difference (−0.04) and intraclass correlation coefficient (0.84), however there were some fundamental differences. A larger range of values was observed with the EQ-5D-5L (−0.57–1.00 vs 0.16–1.00). The EQ-5D-5L had a greater divergent sensitivity and efficacy in relation to assessing HSUVs between clinical groupings. The AQoL-8D ,however, had a higher sensitivity to measure psychosocial aspects of HRQoL in IPF. Conclusion The EQ-5D-5L demonstrated superior performance when compared to AQoL-8D in persons with IPF. This may be attributable to the high symptom burden which is physically debilitating to which the EQ-5D-5L may be more sensitive.

Background: Accurate blood pressure (BP) measurement is critical for optimal cardiovascular risk management. Age-related trajectories for cuff-measured BP accelerate faster in women compared with men, but whether cuff BP represents the intraarterial (invasive) aortic BP is unknown. This study aimed to determine the sex differences between cuff BP, invasive aortic BP, and the difference between the 2 measurements. Methods: Upper-arm cuff BP and invasive aortic BP were measured during coronary angiography in 1615 subjects from the Invasive Blood Pressure Consortium Database. This analysis comprised 22 different cuff BP devices from 28 studies. Results: Subjects were 64±11 years (range 40–89) and 32% women. For the same cuff systolic BP (SBP), invasive aortic SBP was 4.4 mm Hg higher in women compared with men. Cuff and invasive aortic SBP were higher in women compared with men, but the sex difference was more pronounced from invasive aortic SBP, was the lowest in younger ages, and the highest in older ages. Cuff diastolic blood pressure overestimated invasive diastolic blood pressure in both sexes. For cuff and invasive diastolic blood pressure separately, there were sex*age interactions in which diastolic blood pressure was higher in younger men and lower in older men, compared with women. Cuff pulse pressure underestimated invasive aortic pulse pressure in excess of 10 mm Hg for both sexes in older age. Conclusions: For the same cuff SBP, invasive aortic SBP was higher in women compared with men. How this translates to cardiovascular risk prediction needs to be determined, but women may be at higher BP-related risk than estimated by cuff measurements.

Prophylactic administration of uterotonics ensures adequate uterine contraction at elective caesarean section to prevent substantial haemorrhage. Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists guidelines advise the administration of oxytocin at 5 IU as a ‘slow bolus’ but there are variations in clinical practice. This study aimed to determine the beliefs and uterotonic usage practices at elective caesarean section by surveying anaesthetist members of the Obstetric Anaesthesia Special Interest Group in Australia and New Zealand. Questionnaires were emailed to Obstetric Anaesthesia Special Interest Group members and the response rate was 33%, with analysis of 279 completed reports. Oxytocin was the most commonly used first-line uterotonic, but extensive variation in oxytocin bolus use was identified. Thirty-eight per cent of anaesthetists routinely administered Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists guideline-recommended 5 IU, whereas 38% favoured low dose (

A hypertensive response to exercise (HRE) is associated with cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure (BP). Sub-clinical changes to cardiac structure may underlie these associations, although this has not been systematically determined. Via systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to (1) assess the relationship between exercise BP and cardiac structure, and (2) determine if cardiac structure is altered in those with an HRE, across various study populations (including those with/without high BP at rest).Three online databases were searched for cross-sectional studies reporting exercise BP, HRE and cardiac structural variables. Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regressions were used to calculate pooled correlations between exercise BP and cardiac structure, and pooled mean differences and relative risk between those with/without an HRE.Forty-nine studies, (n=23,707 total; aged 44±4 years; 63% male) were included. Exercise systolic BP was associated with increased left ventricular (LV) mass, LV mass index, relative wall thickness, posterior wall thickness and interventricular septal thickness (p0.05 all). Those with an HRE had higher risk of LV hypertrophy (relative risk: 2.6 [1.85-3.70]), increased LV mass (47±7g), LV mass index (7±2g/mExercise systolic BP is associated with cardiac structure, and those with an HRE show evidence towards adverse remodelling. Results were similar across different study populations, highlighting the hypertension-related cardiovascular risk associated with an HRE.

BACKGROUND A hypertensive response to exercise (HRE) is associated with cardiovascular disease and high blood pressure (BP). A poor cardiovascular risk factor profile may underlie these associations, although this has not been systematically elucidated. Via systematic review and meta-analysis, we aimed to assess the relationship between exercise BP and cardiovascular risk factors, and determine if cardiovascular risk is higher in those with an HRE vs. no-HRE across different study populations (including those with/without high BP at rest). METHODS Three online databases were searched for cross-sectional studies reporting data on exercise BP, an HRE and cardiovascular risk factors (including arterial structure, lipid, metabolic, inflammatory and kidney function markers). Random-effects meta-analyses and meta-regression were used to calculate pooled correlations between exercise BP and each risk factor and pooled mean differences between those with/without an HRE. RESULTS Thirty-eight studies (38 295 participants, aged 50 ± 3years; 78% male) were included. Exercise SBP was associated with arterial, lipid and kidney function risk markers (P

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and universally fatal lung disease, characterised by increasing fibrosis of the lung parenchyma. In this study, we aimed to quantify the health state utility values (HSUVs) for Australians with IPF and to identify the factors affecting these HSUVs. Participants of the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR), with data on EuroQoL five dimension—five level (EQ-5D-5L) profiles were included. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) were used to assess disease severity using three IPF -based classification systems. Stepwise multivariable linear regression models assessed the relationship between HSUVs and important demographic and clinical parameters.Query A total of 155 participants provided data for the analysis of HSUVs. For our base case, HSUVs ranged from − 0.57 to 1.00. Mean HSUVs for all participants was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61–0.70). In general, HSUVs decreased with increasing disease severity under all disease severity classification systems. Multivariable linear regression demonstrated a negative association between HSUVs, disease severity and having more than 2 comorbidities. Our study has shown that EQ-5D-5L has exhibited discriminatory sensitivity for the study population. We have demonstrated that disease severity and having more than two comorbidities was associated with lower HSUVs in Australians with IPF. Our findings support early diagnosis and appropriate evidence-based treatment to slow or prevent IPF progression; and identification and treatment of associated comorbidities to potentially improve health-related quality of life in people with IPF.

Attrition is common in longitudinal studies and can lead to bias when the missingness pattern affects the distributions of analysed variables. Characterisation of factors predictive of attrition is vital to longitudinal research. Few studies have investigated the factors predictive of attrition from childhood cohorts with large-scale loss to follow-up. Methods to remove potential bias are available and have been well studied in scenarios of short intervening periods between contact and follow-up. Less is known about the performance of such techniques when there is a large initial loss of participants after a long intervening period. The Australian Schools Health and Fitness Survey (ASHFS) was conducted in 1985 when participants were school children aged 7–15 years. The first follow-up occurred 20 years later with substantial loss of participants: 80% were traced, 61% enrolled and provided brief questionnaire information, 47% provided more extensive questionnaire information and 28% attended clinics. Factors associated with attrition were examined and two common techniques, multiple imputation (MI) and inverse probability weighting (IPW) were used to determine the potential for correcting the bias in the estimate of the association between self-rated fitness and BMI in childhood. Attrition from childhood to adulthood was found to be influenced by the same factors that operate in adult cohorts: lower education, lower socio-economic position and male sex. Attrition patterns varied by the stage of follow-up. Estimated childhood associations biased by adulthood attrition were able to be corrected using MI, but IPW was unsuccessful due to a lack of completely observed informative variables.

Background: Exaggerated exercise blood pressure (EEBP) during clinical exercise testing is associated with poor blood pressure (BP) control and cardiovascular disease (CVD). Type-2 diabetes (T2DM) is thought to be associated with increased prevalence of EEBP, but this has never been definitively determined and was the aim of this study. Methods: Clinical exercise test records were analyzed from 13 268 people (aged 53±13 years, 59% male) who completed the Bruce treadmill protocol (stages 1–4, and peak) at 4 Australian public hospitals. Records (including BP) were linked to administrative health datasets (hospital and emergency admissions) to define clinical characteristics and classify T2DM (n=1199) versus no T2DM (n=12 069). EEBP was defined as systolic BP ≥90th percentile at each test stage. Exercise BP was regressed on T2DM history and adjusted for CVD and risk factors. Results: Prevalence of EEBP (age, sex, preexercise BP, hypertension history, CVD history and aerobic capacity adjusted) was 12% to 51% greater in T2DM versus no T2DM (prevalence ratio [95% CI], stage 1, 1.12 [1.02–1.24]; stage 2, 1.51 [1.41–1.61]; stage 3, 1.25 [1.10–1.42]; peak, 1.18 [1.09–1.29]). At stages 1 to 3, 8.6% to 15.8% (4.8%–9.7% T2DM versus 3.5% to 6.1% no-T2DM) of people with ‘normal’ preexercise BP ( Conclusions: People with T2DM have higher prevalence of EEBP and exercise systolic BP independent of CVD and many of its known risk factors. Clinicians supervising exercise testing should be alerted to increased likelihood of EEBP and thus poor BP control warranting follow-up care in people with T2DM.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the efficacy of a pro-active, absolute cardiovascular risk-guided approach to opportunistically modifying cardiovascular risk factors in patients without coronary ischaemia attending a chest pain clinic. DESIGN: Prospective, randomised, open label, blinded endpoint study. SETTING: The rapid access chest pain clinic of Royal Hobart Hospital, a tertiary hospital. PARTICIPANTS: Patients who presented to the chest pain clinic between 1 July 2014 and 31 December 2017 who had intermediate to high absolute cardiovascular risk scores (5-year risk ≥ 8%). Patients with known cardiac disease or from groups with clinically determined high risk of cardiovascular disease were excluded. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary endpoint was change in 5-year absolute risk score (Australian absolute risk calculator) at follow-up (at least 12 months after baseline assessment). Secondary endpoints were changes in lipid profile, blood pressure, smoking status, and body mass index, and major adverse cardiovascular events. RESULTS: The mean change in risk at follow-up was +0.4 percentage points (95% CI, -0.8 to 1.5 percentage points) for the 98 control group patients and -2.4 percentage points (95% CI, -1.5 to -3.4 percentage points) for the 91 intervention group patients; the between-group difference in change was 2.7 percentage points (95% CI, 1.2-4.1 percentage points). Mean changes in lipid profile, systolic blood pressure, and smoking status were larger for the intervention group, but not statistically different from those for the control group. CONCLUSIONS: An absolute cardiovascular risk-guided, pro-active risk factor management strategy employed opportunistically in a chest pain clinic significantly improved 5-year absolute cardiovascular risk scores. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australia New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12617000615381 (retrospective).

Background: Vulvar cancer is rare and, as a result, is understudied. Treatment is predominantly surgery, irrespective of the type of vulvar cancer, and is associated with physical, emotional and sexual complications. A cluster of human papillomavirus (HPV)-dependent vulvar cancer patients was identified in Arnhem Land Northern Territory (NT), Australia, in which young Indigenous women were diagnosed at 70 times the national incidence rate. Aims: To assess whether women from the Arnhem Land cluster differ from women with vulvar squamous cell carcinoma (VSCC) and vulvar intraepithelial neoplasia (VIN) resident elsewhere in the NT in recurrence after treatment, disease progression and mortality. Materials and methods: A retrospective cohort study of NT-resident women diagnosed with VIN or invasive vulvar cancer (VSCC) between 1 January 1993 and 30 June 2015 was undertaken. Time to recurrence was assessed using cumulative incidence plots and Fine and Gray competing risk regression models. Mean cumulative count was used to estimate the burden of recurrent events. Results: Indigenous women from Arnhem Land experienced more recurrences after treatment than non-Indigenous women, the cancers recurred faster, and Indigenous women have worse survival at five years. Conclusions: In characterising the epidemiological features of this cluster, we have identified a particularly aggressive form of vulvar cancer. This provides a unique opportunity for elucidating the aetiopathological pathways driving vulvar cancer development that may ultimately lead to preventive and therapeutic targets for this neglected malignancy. Further, these findings have important implications for clinical practice and HPV vaccination policy in the affected population.

Summary Objective To describe the association of subchondral and systemic bone mineral density (BMD) with knee and hip replacements (KR and HR, respectively) due to osteoarthritis. Design 1,095 participants (mean age 63 years, 51% female) were included. At baseline, subchondral BMD of the medial and lateral tibia in three regions of interest (ROI) for the right knee, and systemic BMD of the lumbar spine, femoral neck, total hip and whole-body, were measured using dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry. Subchondral BMD of the hip was not measured. Competing risk regression models were used to estimate sub-distribution hazard ratios (SHRs) of KR/HR per one standard deviation (SD) higher in BMD measures, with adjustment of potential confounders. Results Over 12.2 years, 79 (7.2%) participants underwent a KR and 56 (5.1%) an HR due to osteoarthritis. For the right side, medial subchondral BMD in ROI-3 was associated with an increased risk of KR (SHR 1.95 per SD; 95% Confidence Interval [CI], 1.57 to 2.43). In contrast, systemic BMD was not associated with the risk of KR, but higher BMD at the lumbar spine (1.42, 1.07 to 1.88) and whole-body (1.29, 1.00 to 1.66) were associated with an increased risk of HR at both sides. Conclusions Subchondral BMD is positively associated with an increased risk of KR and systemic BMD with an increased risk of HR, suggesting a role of BMD in the progression of osteoarthritis.

The radon issue has been known worldwide for dozens of years. Many scientific (ICRP Publication No. 137), technical (ICRU Report No. 88), and legislative (Council Directive 2013/59/EURATOM (EU-BSS)) documents have been published in the last decade. More and more attention is being paid to precise quantification to determine the concentration and consequent effects of various pollutants on human health worldwide. The quality of measurement and the variety of measurement techniques increase the need to unify measurement procedures and metrology continuity. Countries around the world are beginning to unify metrological procedures for determining different quantities based on international recommendations and standards. Not only for these reasons, it became more actual a need for more accurate radon activity concentration measurement and radon metrology unification. This paper summarizes the main remarks and technical aspects to the historical development of radon metrology.

Purpose Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a type of interstitial lung disease found mostly in elderly persons, characterized by a high symptom burden and frequent encounters with health services. This study aimed to quantify the economic burden of IPF in Australia with a focus on resource utilization and associated direct costs. Methods Participants were recruited from the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR) between August 2018 and December 2019. Data on resource utilization and costs were collected via cost diaries and linked administrative data. Clinical data were collected from the AIPFR. A “bottom up” costing methodology was utilized, and the costing was performed from a partial societal perspective focusing primarily on direct medical and non-medical costs. Costs were standardized to 2021 Australian dollars ($). Results The average annual total direct costs per person with IPF was $31,655 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): $27,723–$35,757). Extrapolating costs based on prevalence estimates, the total annual costs in Australia are projected to be $299 million (95% CI: $262 million–$338 million). Costs were mainly driven by antifibrotic medication, hospital admissions and medications for comorbidities. Disease severity, comorbidities and antifibrotic medication all had varying impacts on resource utilization and costs. Conclusion This cost-of-illness study provides the first comprehensive assessment of IPF-related direct costs in Australia, identifies the key cost drivers and provides a framework for future health economic analyses. Additionally, it provided insight into the major cost drivers which include antifibrotic medication, hospital admissions and medications related to comorbidities. Our findings emphasize the importance of the appropriate management of comorbidities in the care of people with IPF as this was one of the main reasons for hospitalizations.

Background Workplace-based mindfulness programs have good evidence for improving employee stress and mental health outcomes, but less is known about their effects on productivity and citizenship behaviors. Most of the available evidence is derived from studies of mindfulness programs that use class-based approaches. Mindfulness apps can increase access to training, but whether self-directed app use is sufficient to realize benefits equivalent to class-based mindfulness programs is unknown. Objective We assessed the effectiveness of a mindfulness app, both with and without supporting classes, for reducing employees’ perceived stress. Changes in mindfulness, mental health, quality of life, perceptions of job demand, control and support, productivity indicators, organizational citizenship, and mindful behaviors at work were also investigated. Methods Tasmanian State Service employees were invited by the Tasmanian Training Consortium to a 3-arm randomized controlled trial investigating the effects of a mindfulness app on stress. The app used in the Smiling Mind Workplace Program formed the basis of the intervention. The app includes lessons, activities, and guided meditations, and is supported by 4 instructional emails delivered over 8 weeks. Engagement with the app for 10-20 minutes, 5 days a week, was recommended. Reported data were collected at baseline (time point 0), 3 months from baseline (time point 1 [T1]), and at 6-month follow-up (time point 2). At time point 0, participants could nominate a work-based observer to answer surveys about participants’ behaviors. Eligible participants (n=211) were randomly assigned to self-guided app use plus four 1-hour classes (app+classes: 70/211, 33.2%), self-guided app use (app-only: 71/211, 33.6%), or waitlist control (WLC; 70/211, 33.2%). Linear mixed effects models were used to assess changes in the active groups compared with the WLC at T1 and for a head-to-head comparison of the app+classes and app-only groups at follow-up. Results App use time was considerably lower than recommended (app+classes: 120/343 minutes; app-only: 45/343 minutes). Compared with the WLC at T1, no significant change in perceived stress was observed in either active group. However, the app+classes group reported lower psychological distress (β=−1.77, SE 0.75; P=.02; Cohen d=–0.21) and higher mindfulness (β=.31, SE 0.12; P=.01; Cohen d=0.19). These effects were retained in the app+classes group at 6 months. No significant changes were observed for the app-only group or for other outcomes. There were no significant changes in observer measures at T1, but by time point 2, the app+classes participants were more noticeably mindful and altruistic at work than app-only participants. Conclusions Including classes in the training protocol appears to have motivated engagement and led to benefits, whereas self-guided app use did not realize any significant results. Effect sizes were smaller and less consistent than meta-estimates for class-based mindfulness training. Trial Registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Register ACTRN12617001386325; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=372942&isReview

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is one of the most common forms of interstitial lung diseases. While studies have been conducted in other countries to determine the epidemiological burden of IPF, there is limited information in Australia. Our study aimed to address this gap and generate the first estimates for the mortality, incidence and prevalence of IPF in Australia.Estimates were generated by utilizing the novel Mortality Incidence Analysis Model (MIAMOD) method and software based on the illness-death model. Data inputs included population estimates and mortality data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) for the period 1997-2015 and participant data from the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR). Projections were estimated for a 10-year period up to 2025.Overall crude and age-standardized estimates for mortality were 5.9 and 6.3 per 100,000 population; incidence, 10.4 and 11.2 per 100,000 population; and prevalence, 32.6 and 35.1 per 100,000 population. Crude and age-standardized mortality, incidence and prevalence increased over the study period; however, they demonstrated a decreasing trend over the projected period. Persons older than 70 years constituted 9% of the population; however, they accounted for approximately 82%-83% of all deaths, incident and prevalent cases. All estimates were higher in males than in females.Our study provides the first estimates for incidence, prevalence and mortality of IPF in Australia. By reporting national estimates for IPF, our study addresses an information gap important for policy, planning and to help optimize the allocation of resources for the management of patients with IPF.

BackgroundThere are substantial advances in diagnosis and treatment for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF), but without much evidence available on recent mortality and survival trends.MethodsA narrative synthesis approach was used to investigate the mortality trends, then meta-analyses for survival trends were carried out based on various time periods.ResultsSix studies reported the mortality data for IPF in 22 countries, and 62 studies (covering 63 307 patients from 20 countries) reported survival data for IPF. Age-standardised mortality for IPF varied from ∼0.5 to ∼12 per 100 000 population per year after year 2000. There were increased mortality trends for IPF in Australia, Brazil, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Finland, France, Germany, Hungary, Italy, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden and UK, while Austria, Croatia, Denmark, Romania and the USA showed decreased mortality trends. The overall 3-year and 5-year cumulative survival rates (CSRs) were 61.8% (95% CI 58.7–64.9; I2=97.1%) and 45.6% (95% CI 41.5–49.7; I2=97.7%), respectively. Prior to 2010, the pooled 3-year CSR was 59.9% (95% CI 55.8–64.1; I2=95.8%), then not significantly (p=0.067) increased to 66.2% (95% CI 62.9–69.5; I2=92.6%) in the 2010s decade. After excluding three studies in which no patients received antifibrotics after year 2010, the pooled 3-year CSRs significantly (p=0.039) increased to 67.4% (95% CI 63.9–70.9; I2=93.1%) in the 2010s decade.DiscussionIPF is a diagnosis associated with high mortality. There was no observed increasing survival trend for patients with IPF before year 2010, with then a switch to an improvement, which is probably multifactorial.

Background: There is limited epidemiological data for idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis(IPF) in Australia. Aim: Our study aimed to estimate the mortality, incidence, and prevalence rates of IPF in Australia for the period 1997-2015 and projections for 2016-2025. Methods: Our estimates were generated utilising the Mortality Incidence Analysis Model (MIAMOD) method and software. This method is useful in situations where incidence and prevalence data are limited but mortality and registry data are available. Data from the Australian IPF Registry and population and death index data from the Australia Bureau of Statistics were used to generate estimates. Age standardised rates were based on the standard Australian population in 2011. Results: There was an increasing trend in crude and age standardised mortality, incidence, and prevalence over the study period (1997-2015), however age standardised mortality, incidence and prevalence showed a decreasing trend over the projected period from 2017-2025. Highest crude and age standardised estimates were in persons 70 years and above and all estimates were higher in males than in females. Overall crude and age standardised estimates were mortality, 5.9 and 6.2 per 100,000 persons respectively; incidence, 10.4 and 11.0 per 100,000 person years, respectively; and prevalence, 32.6 and 34.3 per 100,000 persons, respectively. Conclusion: Our study has revealed an increasing trend in mortality, incidence, and prevalence of IPF in Australia. This adds to the current evidence base for policy and planning decisions particularly related to resources for the management of patients with IPF. Moreover, this study serves as a benchmark for future research which will improve the knowledge base on IPF in Australia.

Background and Purpose— Women are reported to have poorer health-related quality of life (HRQoL) after stroke than men, but the underlying reasons are uncertain. We investigated factors contributing to the sex differences. Methods— Individual participant data on 4288 first-ever strokes (1996–2013) were obtained from 4 high-quality population-based incidence studies from Australasia and Europe. HRQoL utility scores among survivors after stroke (range from negative scores=worse than death to 1=perfect health) were calculated from 3 scales including European Quality of Life-5 Dimensions, Short-Form 6-Dimension, and Assessment of Quality of Life at 1 year (3 studies; n=1210) and 5 years (3 studies; n=1057). Quantile regression was used to estimate the median differences in HRQoL for women compared to men with adjustment for covariates. Study factors included sociodemographics, prestroke dependency, stroke-related factors (eg, stroke severity), comorbidities, and poststroke depression. Study-specific median differences were combined into pooled estimates using random-effect meta-analysis. Results— Women had lower pooled HRQoL than men (median difference unadjusted 1 year, −0.147; 95% CI, −0.258 to −0.036; 5 years, −0.090; 95% CI, −0.119 to −0.062). After adjustment for age, stroke severity, prestroke dependency, and depression, these pooled median differences were attenuated, more greatly at 1 year (−0.067; 95% CI, −0.111 to −0.022) than at 5 years (−0.085; 95% CI, −0.135 to −0.034). Conclusions— Women consistently exhibited poorer HRQoL after stroke than men. This was partly attributable to women’s advanced age, more severe strokes, prestroke dependency, and poststroke depression, suggesting targets to reduce the differences. There was some evidence of residual differences in HRQoL between sexes but they were small and unlikely to be clinically significant.

Background: High inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) rates have been reported in Australasia, but no state-wide studies have yet been performed. Aims: This study estimates the one-year incidence and point prevalence of IBD in the state of Tasmania, Australia. It also reports clinical outcomes after twelve months of diagnosis in an incident cohort. Methods: A prospective, population-based study was performed collecting prevalent and incident state-wide cases from 1st June 2013 to 31st May 2014. Case data were identified from specialist doctors, pathology databases and hospital records. Age-standardised rates (ASRs) were calculated based on World Health Organization 2000 standard population characteristics. Incident cases were followed up twelve months after diagnosis. Results: There were 1719 prevalent cases: ASRs for IBD, Crohn's disease (CD), ulcerative colitis (UC) and inflammatory bowel disease unclassified (IBDU) prevalence were 303.9, 165.5, 131.4 and 6.9 per 100,000 respectively. Prevalent CD cases were younger, with greater immunomodulator/biologic use and bowel resections. There were 149 incident cases: ASRs for IBD, CD, UC and IBDU incidence were 29.5, 15.4, 12.4, and 1.7 per 100,000 respectively. Incident CD cases were more likely than UC or IBDU to require escalation of medical therapy, hospitalisation, and bowel resection especially among those with penetrating or stricturing disease. They had longer duration of symptoms prior to diagnosis. Conclusions: IBD prevalence and incidence rates are high in Tasmania, comparable to data from other Australasian studies and those from Northern Europe and America. Poorer twelve month clinical outcomes occurred in complicated CD, with greater use of healthcare resources.

Background Demand for bariatric surgery in the public hospital setting in Australia is high with prolonged wait-list times. Policy-makers need to consider the consequences of expanding public bariatric surgery including on emergency department (ED) presentations. Aims To describe and evaluate public ED presentation rates and reasons for presenting in a cohort of patients wait-listed for public surgery. Methods All Tasmanians placed on the public wait-list for primary bariatric surgery in 2008–2013 were identified using administrative datasets along with their ED presentations in 2000–2014. The presentations were assigned to one of three periods: before wait-list placement, whilst on the wait-list, and after wait-list removal for publicly-funded surgery or drop-out. A negative binomial mixed-effects regression model was used to derive ED presentation incidence rate ratios (IRR) to compare observation periods and patient groups. Results 652 wait-listed patients had 5149 public ED presentations. 178 patients had publicly-funded bariatric surgery — all as laparoscopically adjustable gastric banding (LAGB). Overall, ED presentation rates did not change significantly post-surgery compared with the waiting period (IRR 1.19, 95%CI 0.90–1.56). Presentation rates significantly increased for digestive system (IRR 2.02, 95%CI 1.19–3.45) and psychiatric diseases (IRR 4.85, 95%CI 1.06–22.26) after surgery. The likelihood of being admitted from the ED significantly increased after surgery (31.7%–38.9%, p Conclusion ED presentations were common for patients wait-listed for public bariatric surgery and rates did not decrease over an average of three years post-LAGB. The likelihood of being admitted to the hospital from the ED increased after surgery.

Objectives To present a comprehensive real-world micro-costing analysis of bariatric surgery. Methods Patients were included if they underwent primary bariatric surgery (gastric banding [GB], gastric bypass [GBP] and sleeve gastrectomy [SG]) between 2013 and 2019. Costs were disaggregated into cost items and average-per-patient costs from the Australian healthcare systems perspective were expressed in constant 2019 Australian dollars for the entire cohort and subgroup analysis. Annual population-based costs were calculated to capture longitudinal trends. A generalized linear model (GLM) predicted the overall bariatric-related costs. Results N = 240 publicly funded patients were included, with the waitlist times of ≤ 10.7 years. The mean direct costs were $11,269. The operating theatre constituted the largest component of bariatric-related costs, followed by medical supplies, salaries, critical care use, and labour on-costs. Average cost for SG ($12,632) and GBP ($15,041) was higher than that for GB ($10,049). Operating theatre accounted for the largest component for SG/GBP costs, whilst medical supplies were the largest for GB. We observed an increase in SG and a decrease in GB procedures over time. Correspondingly, the main cost driver changed from medical supplies in 2014–2015 for GB procedures to operating theatre for SG thereafter. GLM model estimates of bariatric average cost ranged from $7,580 to $36,633. Conclusions We presented the first detailed characterization of the scale, disaggregated profile and determinants of bariatric-related costs, and examined the evolution of resource utilization patterns and costs, reflecting the shift in the Australian bariatric landscape over time. Understanding these patterns and forecasting of future changes are critical for efficient resource allocation. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10198-021-01405-x.

Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a progressive and universally fatal lung disease, characterised by increasing fibrosis of the lung parenchyma. In this study, we aimed to quantify the health state utility values (HSUVs) for Australians with IPF and to identify the factors affecting these HSUVs.Participants of the Australian IPF Registry (AIPFR), with data on EuroQoL five dimension-five level (EQ-5D-5L) profiles were included. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) were used to assess disease severity using three IPF -based classification systems. Stepwise multivariable linear regression models assessed the relationship between HSUVs and important demographic and clinical parameters.Query RESULTS: A total of 155 participants provided data for the analysis of HSUVs. For our base case, HSUVs ranged from - 0.57 to 1.00. Mean HSUVs for all participants was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61-0.70). In general, HSUVs decreased with increasing disease severity under all disease severity classification systems. Multivariable linear regression demonstrated a negative association between HSUVs, disease severity and having more than 2 comorbidities.Our study has shown that EQ-5D-5L has exhibited discriminatory sensitivity for the study population. We have demonstrated that disease severity and having more than two comorbidities was associated with lower HSUVs in Australians with IPF. Our findings support early diagnosis and appropriate evidence-based treatment to slow or prevent IPF progression; and identification and treatment of associated comorbidities to potentially improve health-related quality of life in people with IPF.

BackgroundThe mid-life emergence of higher levels of total cholesterol (TC) for women than for men has been observed in different Western and Asian populations. The aim of this study was to investigate whether there is evidence of this in Vietnam and, if so, whether it can be explained by ageing, by body size and fatness, or by socio-demographic characteristics and behavioural factors.MethodsParticipants (n = 14706, 50.9% females) aged 25–64 years were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces each representing one of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. Measurements were made using the World Health Organization STEPS protocols. Linear regression was used to assess the independent contributions of potential explanatory factors to mean levels of TC. Data were analysed using complex survey methods.ResultsMen and women had similar mean levels of body mass index (BMI), and men had modestly higher mean levels of waist circumference (WC), in each 5-year age category. The mean TC of women increased more or less continuously across the age range but with a step-up at age 50 years to reach higher concentrations on average than those of their male counterparts. The estimated step-up was not eliminated by adjustment for anthropometric indices including BMI or WC, or by adjustment for socio-demographic characteristics or behavioural factors. The estimated step-up was least for women with the greatest weight.ConclusionThere is a marked step-up in TC at age 50 years for Vietnamese women that cannot be explained by their age, or by their body fatness or its distribution, or by their socio-demographic characteristics or behavioural factors, and which results in greater mean levels of TC for middle-aged women than for their male counterparts in Vietnam.

Measurements of activity concentration of radon gas and radon decay products were carried out in several workplaces including schools, radium spas, swimming pools, water treatment plants, caves and former mines. Based on these measurements, annual effective doses to workers were estimated and values of the equilibrium factor, F, were calculated. This paper describes the different approaches used to estimate the annual effective dose based on the dose coefficients recommended by the International Commission on Radiological Protection. Using the measured F values as opposed to the default F value of 0.4 changed the doses by about 5–95% depending mainly upon the ventilation conditions of the workplace.

Modelling of associations of systolic blood pressure (BP) and blood glucose (BG) with their explanatory factors in separate regressions treats them as having independent biological mechanisms. This can lead to statistical inferences that are unreliable because the substantial overlap in their etiologic and disease mechanisms is ignored. This study aimed to examine the relationship of systolic blood pressure (BP) and blood glucose (BG) with measures of obesity and central fat distribution and other factors whilst taking account of the inter-dependence between them. Participants (n = 14706, 53.5 % females) aged 25–64 years were selected by multi-stage stratified cluster sampling from eight provinces each representing one of the eight geographical regions of Vietnam. Measurements were made using the World Health Organization STEPS protocols. Structural modelling identified direct effects for BG (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.029), age (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.000) and body mass index (BMI) (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.000) in the estimation of systolic BP, and for systolic BP (men P = 0.036, women P = 0.000) and waist circumference (WC) (men P = 0.032, women P = 0.009) in the estimation of BG. There were indirect effects of age, cholesterol, physical activity and tobacco smoking via their influence on WC and BMI. The errors in estimation of systolic BP and BG were correlated (men P = 0.000, women P = 0.004), the stability indices (men 0.466, women 0.495) showed the non-recursive models were stable, and the proportion of variance explained was mid-range (men 0.553, women 0.579). This study provided statistical evidence of a feedback loop between systolic BP and BG. BMI and WC were confirmed to be their primary explanatory factors. Saturated fat intake and physical activity were identified as possible targets of intervention for overweight and obesity, and indirectly for reducing systolic BP and BG. Harmful/hazardous alcohol intake was identified as a target of intervention for systolic BP.