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12 results on '"Petrov, Polina"'

1. Identifying Host Galaxies of Supermassive Black Hole Binaries Found by PTAs

Author

Petrov, Polina, Taylor, Stephen R., Charisi, Maria, and Ma, Chung-Pei

Subjects
Astrophysics - Astrophysics of Galaxies, Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Abstract

Supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs) present us with exciting opportunities for multi-messenger science. These systems are thought to form naturally in galaxy mergers and therefore have the potential to produce electromagnetic (EM) radiation as well as gravitational waves (GWs) detectable with pulsar timing arrays (PTAs). Once GWs from individually resolved SMBHBs are detected, the identification of the host galaxy will be a major challenge due to the ambiguity in possible EM signatures and the poor localization capability of PTAs. In order to aid EM observations in choosing which sources to follow up, we attempt to quantify the number of plausible hosts in both realistic and idealistic scenarios. We outline a host galaxy identification pipeline that injects a single-source GW signal into a simulated PTA dataset, uses production-level techniques to recover the signal, quantifies the localization region and number of galaxies contained therein, and finally imposes cuts on the galaxies using the binary parameters estimated from the GW search. In an ideal case, we find that the 90% credible areas span 29 deg^2 to 241 deg^2, containing about 14 to 341 galaxies. After cuts, the number of galaxies remaining ranges from 22 at worst to 1 (the true host) at best. In a more realistic case, if the signal is sufficiently localized, the sky areas range from 287 deg^2 to 530 deg^2 and enclose about 285 to 1238 galaxies. After cuts, the number of galaxies is 397 at worst and 27 at best. While the signal-to-noise ratio is the primary determinant of the localization area of a given source, we find that the size of the area is also influenced by the proximity of nearby pulsars on the sky and the chirp mass of the source., Comment: Submitted to ApJ

Published
2024

2. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Author

Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Case, Robin, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil, Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, DeCesar, Megan, Demorest, Paul B., Digman, Matthew C., Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel, Garver-Daniels, Nathaniel, Gentile, Peter, Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah, Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey, Hourihane, Sophie, Jennings, Ross, Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan, Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David, Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey, Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael, Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing Santiago, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin, McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura, McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., mitridate, andrea, natarajan, priya, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David, Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken, Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge, Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan, Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott, Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph, Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena, Stairs, Ingrid, Stinebring, Dan, Stovall, Kevin, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph, Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen, Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, van Haasteren, Rutger, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Witt, Caitlin, and Young, Olivia

Subjects
Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Abstract

Evidence for a low-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background has recently been reported based on analyses of pulsar timing array data. The most likely source of such a background is a population of supermassive black hole binaries, the loudest of which may be individually detected in these datasets. Here we present the search for individual supermassive black hole binaries in the NANOGrav 15-year dataset. We introduce several new techniques, which enhance the efficiency and modeling accuracy of the analysis. The search uncovered weak evidence for two candidate signals, one with a gravitational-wave frequency of $\sim$4 nHz, and another at $\sim$170 nHz. The significance of the low-frequency candidate was greatly diminished when Hellings-Downs correlations were included in the background model. The high-frequency candidate was discounted due to the lack of a plausible host galaxy, the unlikely astrophysical prior odds of finding such a source, and since most of its support comes from a single pulsar with a commensurate binary period. Finding no compelling evidence for signals from individual binary systems, we place upper limits on the strain amplitude of gravitational waves emitted by such systems., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables. Accepted for publication in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Published
2023
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3. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational Wave Background

Author

Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Bonilla, Alexander, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., Chen, Siyuan, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, Cutler, Curt J., D'Orazio, Daniel J., DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Gardiner, Emiko, Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Gersbach, Kyle A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Hourihane, Sophie, Islo, Kristina, Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron, Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Littenberg, Tyson B., Liu, Tingting, Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Runnoe, Jessie C., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Schult, Levi, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Sun, Jerry P., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wachter, Jeremy M., Wahl, Haley M., Wang, Qiaohong, Witt, Caitlin A., Wright, David, and Young, Olivia

Subjects
Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, Astrophysics - Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics, General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Abstract

The NANOGrav 15-year data set shows evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave background (GWB). While many physical processes can source such low-frequency gravitational waves, here we analyze the signal as coming from a population of supermassive black hole (SMBH) binaries distributed throughout the Universe. We show that astrophysically motivated models of SMBH binary populations are able to reproduce both the amplitude and shape of the observed low-frequency gravitational-wave spectrum. While multiple model variations are able to reproduce the GWB spectrum at our current measurement precision, our results highlight the importance of accurately modeling binary evolution for producing realistic GWB spectra. Additionally, while reasonable parameters are able to reproduce the 15-year observations, the implied GWB amplitude necessitates either a large number of parameters to be at the edges of expected values, or a small number of parameters to be notably different from standard expectations. While we are not yet able to definitively establish the origin of the inferred GWB signal, the consistency of the signal with astrophysical expectations offers a tantalizing prospect for confirming that SMBH binaries are able to form, reach sub-parsec separations, and eventually coalesce. As the significance grows over time, higher-order features of the GWB spectrum will definitively determine the nature of the GWB and allow for novel constraints on SMBH populations., Comment: Accepted by Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org. Edited to fix two equation typos (Eq.13 & 21), and minor text typos

Published
2023
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4. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics

Author

Afzal, Adeela, Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Bécsy, Bence, Blanco-Pillado, Jose Juan, Blecha, Laura, Boddy, Kimberly K., Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., Chen, Siyuan, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, Cutler, Curt J., DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, von Eckardstein, Richard, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Gersbach, Kyle A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Guertin, Lydia, Gültekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Hourihane, Sophie, Islo, Kristina, Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lee, Vincent S. H., Lewandowska, Natalia, Santos, Rafael R. Lino dos, Littenberg, Tyson B., Liu, Tingting, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Nay, Jonathan, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Schröder, Tobias, Schult, Levi, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Stratmann, Peter, Sun, Jerry P., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen R., Trickle, Tanner, Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, Verma, Sonali, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Wang, Qiaohong, Witt, Caitlin A., Wright, David, Young, Olivia, and Zurek, Kathryn M.

Subjects
Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, Astrophysics - Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics, General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology, High Energy Physics - Phenomenology
Abstract

The 15-year pulsar timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves (NANOGrav) shows positive evidence for the presence of a low-frequency gravitational-wave (GW) background. In this paper, we investigate potential cosmological interpretations of this signal, specifically cosmic inflation, scalar-induced GWs, first-order phase transitions, cosmic strings, and domain walls. We find that, with the exception of stable cosmic strings of field theory origin, all these models can reproduce the observed signal. When compared to the standard interpretation in terms of inspiraling supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs), many cosmological models seem to provide a better fit resulting in Bayes factors in the range from 10 to 100. However, these results strongly depend on modeling assumptions about the cosmic SMBHB population and, at this stage, should not be regarded as evidence for new physics. Furthermore, we identify excluded parameter regions where the predicted GW signal from cosmological sources significantly exceeds the NANOGrav signal. These parameter constraints are independent of the origin of the NANOGrav signal and illustrate how pulsar timing data provide a new way to constrain the parameter space of these models. Finally, we search for deterministic signals produced by models of ultralight dark matter (ULDM) and dark matter substructures in the Milky Way. We find no evidence for either of these signals and thus report updated constraints on these models. In the case of ULDM, these constraints outperform torsion balance and atomic clock constraints for ULDM coupled to electrons, muons, or gluons., Comment: 74 pages, 31 figures, 4 tables; published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Published
2023
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5. The NANOGrav 15-year Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-Wave Background

Author

Agazie, Gabriella, Anumarlapudi, Akash, Archibald, Anne M., Arzoumanian, Zaven, Baker, Paul T., Becsy, Bence, Blecha, Laura, Brazier, Adam, Brook, Paul R., Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, Burnette, Rand, Case, Robin, Charisi, Maria, Chatterjee, Shami, Chatziioannou, Katerina, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., Chen, Siyuan, Cohen, Tyler, Cordes, James M., Cornish, Neil J., Crawford, Fronefield, Cromartie, H. Thankful, Crowter, Kathryn, Cutler, Curt J., DeCesar, Megan E., DeGan, Dallas, Demorest, Paul B., Deng, Heling, Dolch, Timothy, Drachler, Brendan, Ellis, Justin A., Ferrara, Elizabeth C., Fiore, William, Fonseca, Emmanuel, Freedman, Gabriel E., Garver-Daniels, Nate, Gentile, Peter A., Gersbach, Kyle A., Glaser, Joseph, Good, Deborah C., Gultekin, Kayhan, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., Hourihane, Sophie, Islo, Kristina, Jennings, Ross J., Johnson, Aaron D., Jones, Megan L., Kaiser, Andrew R., Kaplan, David L., Kelley, Luke Zoltan, Kerr, Matthew, Key, Joey S., Klein, Tonia C., Laal, Nima, Lam, Michael T., Lamb, William G., Lazio, T. Joseph W., Lewandowska, Natalia, Littenberg, Tyson B., Liu, Tingting, Lommen, Andrea, Lorimer, Duncan R., Luo, Jing, Lynch, Ryan S., Ma, Chung-Pei, Madison, Dustin R., Mattson, Margaret A., McEwen, Alexander, McKee, James W., McLaughlin, Maura A., McMann, Natasha, Meyers, Bradley W., Meyers, Patrick M., Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., Mitridate, Andrea, Natarajan, Priyamvada, Ng, Cherry, Nice, David J., Ocker, Stella Koch, Olum, Ken D., Pennucci, Timothy T., Perera, Benetge B. P., Petrov, Polina, Pol, Nihan S., Radovan, Henri A., Ransom, Scott M., Ray, Paul S., Romano, Joseph D., Sardesai, Shashwat C., Schmiedekamp, Ann, Schmiedekamp, Carl, Schmitz, Kai, Schult, Levi, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., Siemens, Xavier, Simon, Joseph, Siwek, Magdalena S., Stairs, Ingrid H., Stinebring, Daniel R., Stovall, Kevin, Sun, Jerry P., Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, Swiggum, Joseph K., Taylor, Jacob, Taylor, Stephen R., Turner, Jacob E., Unal, Caner, Vallisneri, Michele, van Haasteren, Rutger, Vigeland, Sarah J., Wahl, Haley M., Wang, Qiaohong, Witt, Caitlin A., and Young, Olivia

Subjects
Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Abstract

We report multiple lines of evidence for a stochastic signal that is correlated among 67 pulsars from the 15-year pulsar-timing data set collected by the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves. The correlations follow the Hellings-Downs pattern expected for a stochastic gravitational-wave background. The presence of such a gravitational-wave background with a power-law-spectrum is favored over a model with only independent pulsar noises with a Bayes factor in excess of $10^{14}$, and this same model is favored over an uncorrelated common power-law-spectrum model with Bayes factors of 200-1000, depending on spectral modeling choices. We have built a statistical background distribution for these latter Bayes factors using a method that removes inter-pulsar correlations from our data set, finding $p = 10^{-3}$ (approx. $3\sigma$) for the observed Bayes factors in the null no-correlation scenario. A frequentist test statistic built directly as a weighted sum of inter-pulsar correlations yields $p = 5 \times 10^{-5} - 1.9 \times 10^{-4}$ (approx. $3.5 - 4\sigma$). Assuming a fiducial $f^{-2/3}$ characteristic-strain spectrum, as appropriate for an ensemble of binary supermassive black-hole inspirals, the strain amplitude is $2.4^{+0.7}_{-0.6} \times 10^{-15}$ (median + 90% credible interval) at a reference frequency of 1/(1 yr). The inferred gravitational-wave background amplitude and spectrum are consistent with astrophysical expectations for a signal from a population of supermassive black-hole binaries, although more exotic cosmological and astrophysical sources cannot be excluded. The observation of Hellings-Downs correlations points to the gravitational-wave origin of this signal., Comment: 30 pages, 18 figures. Published in Astrophysical Journal Letters as part of Focus on NANOGrav's 15-year Data Set and the Gravitational Wave Background. For questions or comments, please email comments@nanograv.org

Published
2023
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6. Data-driven expectations for electromagnetic counterpart searches based on LIGO/Virgo public alerts

Author

Petrov, Polina, Singer, Leo P., Coughlin, Michael W., Kumar, Vishwesh, Almualla, Mouza, Anand, Shreya, Bulla, Mattia, Dietrich, Tim, Foucart, Francois, and Guessoum, Nidhal

Subjects
Astrophysics - High Energy Astrophysical Phenomena, Astrophysics - Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics, General Relativity and Quantum Cosmology
Abstract

Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers., Comment: ApJ, in press

Published
2021
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7. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Constraints on Supermassive Black Hole Binaries from the Gravitational-wave Background

Author

Agazie, Gabriella, primary, Anumarlapudi, Akash, additional, Archibald, Anne M., additional, Baker, Paul T., additional, Bécsy, Bence, additional, Blecha, Laura, additional, Bonilla, Alexander, additional, Brazier, Adam, additional, Brook, Paul R., additional, Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, additional, Burnette, Rand, additional, Case, Robin, additional, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, additional, Charisi, Maria, additional, Chatterjee, Shami, additional, Chatziioannou, Katerina, additional, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., additional, Chen, Siyuan, additional, Cohen, Tyler, additional, Cordes, James M., additional, Cornish, Neil J., additional, Crawford, Fronefield, additional, Cromartie, H. Thankful, additional, Crowter, Kathryn, additional, Cutler, Curt J., additional, D’Orazio, Daniel J., additional, DeCesar, Megan E., additional, DeGan, Dallas, additional, Demorest, Paul B., additional, Deng, Heling, additional, Dolch, Timothy, additional, Drachler, Brendan, additional, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., additional, Fiore, William, additional, Fonseca, Emmanuel, additional, Freedman, Gabriel E., additional, Gardiner, Emiko, additional, Garver-Daniels, Nate, additional, Gentile, Peter A., additional, Gersbach, Kyle A., additional, Glaser, Joseph, additional, Good, Deborah C., additional, Gültekin, Kayhan, additional, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., additional, Hourihane, Sophie, additional, Islo, Kristina, additional, Jennings, Ross J., additional, Johnson, Aaron, additional, Jones, Megan L., additional, Kaiser, Andrew R., additional, Kaplan, David L., additional, Kelley, Luke Zoltan, additional, Kerr, Matthew, additional, Key, Joey S., additional, Laal, Nima, additional, Lam, Michael T., additional, Lamb, William G., additional, W. Lazio, T. Joseph, additional, Lewandowska, Natalia, additional, Littenberg, Tyson B., additional, Liu, Tingting, additional, Luo, Jing, additional, Lynch, Ryan S., additional, Ma, Chung-Pei, additional, Madison, Dustin R., additional, McEwen, Alexander, additional, McKee, James W., additional, McLaughlin, Maura A., additional, McMann, Natasha, additional, Meyers, Bradley W., additional, Meyers, Patrick M., additional, Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., additional, Mitridate, Andrea, additional, Natarajan, Priyamvada, additional, Ng, Cherry, additional, Nice, David J., additional, Ocker, Stella Koch, additional, Olum, Ken D., additional, Pennucci, Timothy T., additional, Perera, Benetge B. P., additional, Petrov, Polina, additional, Pol, Nihan S., additional, Radovan, Henri A., additional, Ransom, Scott M., additional, Ray, Paul S., additional, Romano, Joseph D., additional, Runnoe, Jessie C., additional, Sardesai, Shashwat C., additional, Schmiedekamp, Ann, additional, Schmiedekamp, Carl, additional, Schmitz, Kai, additional, Schult, Levi, additional, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., additional, Siemens, Xavier, additional, Simon, Joseph, additional, Siwek, Magdalena S., additional, Stairs, Ingrid H., additional, Stinebring, Daniel R., additional, Stovall, Kevin, additional, Sun, Jerry P., additional, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, additional, Swiggum, Joseph K., additional, Taylor, Jacob, additional, Taylor, Stephen R., additional, Turner, Jacob E., additional, Unal, Caner, additional, Vallisneri, Michele, additional, Vigeland, Sarah J., additional, Wachter, Jeremy M., additional, Wahl, Haley M., additional, Wang, Qiaohong, additional, Witt, Caitlin A., additional, Wright, David, additional, and Young, Olivia, additional

Published
2023
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8. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Bayesian Limits on Gravitational Waves from Individual Supermassive Black Hole Binaries

Author

Agazie, Gabriella, primary, Anumarlapudi, Akash, additional, Archibald, Anne M., additional, Arzoumanian, Zaven, additional, Baker, Paul T., additional, Bécsy, Bence, additional, Blecha, Laura, additional, Brazier, Adam, additional, Brook, Paul R., additional, Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, additional, Case, Robin, additional, Casey-Clyde, J. Andrew, additional, Charisi, Maria, additional, Chatterjee, Shami, additional, Cohen, Tyler, additional, Cordes, James M., additional, Cornish, Neil J., additional, Crawford, Fronefield, additional, Cromartie, H. Thankful, additional, Crowter, Kathryn, additional, DeCesar, Megan E., additional, Demorest, Paul B., additional, Digman, Matthew C., additional, Dolch, Timothy, additional, Drachler, Brendan, additional, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., additional, Fiore, William, additional, Fonseca, Emmanuel, additional, Freedman, Gabriel E., additional, Garver-Daniels, Nate, additional, Gentile, Peter A., additional, Glaser, Joseph, additional, Good, Deborah C., additional, Gültekin, Kayhan, additional, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., additional, Hourihane, Sophie, additional, Jennings, Ross J., additional, Johnson, Aaron D., additional, Jones, Megan L., additional, Kaiser, Andrew R., additional, Kaplan, David L., additional, Kelley, Luke Zoltan, additional, Kerr, Matthew, additional, Key, Joey S., additional, Laal, Nima, additional, Lam, Michael T., additional, Lamb, William G., additional, W. Lazio, T. Joseph, additional, Lewandowska, Natalia, additional, Liu, Tingting, additional, Lorimer, Duncan R., additional, Luo, Jing, additional, Lynch, Ryan S., additional, Ma, Chung-Pei, additional, Madison, Dustin R., additional, McEwen, Alexander, additional, McKee, James W., additional, McLaughlin, Maura A., additional, McMann, Natasha, additional, Meyers, Bradley W., additional, Meyers, Patrick M., additional, Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., additional, Mitridate, Andrea, additional, Ng, Cherry, additional, Nice, David J., additional, Ocker, Stella Koch, additional, Olum, Ken D., additional, Pennucci, Timothy T., additional, Perera, Benetge B. P., additional, Petrov, Polina, additional, Pol, Nihan S., additional, Radovan, Henri A., additional, Ransom, Scott M., additional, Ray, Paul S., additional, Romano, Joseph D., additional, Sardesai, Shashwat C., additional, Schmiedekamp, Ann, additional, Schmiedekamp, Carl, additional, Schmitz, Kai, additional, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., additional, Siemens, Xavier, additional, Simon, Joseph, additional, Siwek, Magdalena S., additional, Stairs, Ingrid H., additional, Stinebring, Daniel R., additional, Stovall, Kevin, additional, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, additional, Swiggum, Joseph K., additional, Taylor, Jacob, additional, Taylor, Stephen R., additional, Turner, Jacob E., additional, Unal, Caner, additional, Vallisneri, Michele, additional, van Haasteren, Rutger, additional, Vigeland, Sarah J., additional, Wahl, Haley M., additional, Witt, Caitlin A., additional, and Young, Olivia, additional

Published
2023
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9. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Evidence for a Gravitational-wave Background

Author

Agazie, Gabriella, primary, Anumarlapudi, Akash, additional, Archibald, Anne M., additional, Arzoumanian, Zaven, additional, Baker, Paul T., additional, Bécsy, Bence, additional, Blecha, Laura, additional, Brazier, Adam, additional, Brook, Paul R., additional, Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, additional, Burnette, Rand, additional, Case, Robin, additional, Charisi, Maria, additional, Chatterjee, Shami, additional, Chatziioannou, Katerina, additional, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., additional, Chen, Siyuan, additional, Cohen, Tyler, additional, Cordes, James M., additional, Cornish, Neil J., additional, Crawford, Fronefield, additional, Cromartie, H. Thankful, additional, Crowter, Kathryn, additional, Cutler, Curt J., additional, DeCesar, Megan E., additional, DeGan, Dallas, additional, Demorest, Paul B., additional, Deng, Heling, additional, Dolch, Timothy, additional, Drachler, Brendan, additional, Ellis, Justin A., additional, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., additional, Fiore, William, additional, Fonseca, Emmanuel, additional, Freedman, Gabriel E., additional, Garver-Daniels, Nate, additional, Gentile, Peter A., additional, Gersbach, Kyle A., additional, Glaser, Joseph, additional, Good, Deborah C., additional, Gültekin, Kayhan, additional, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., additional, Hourihane, Sophie, additional, Islo, Kristina, additional, Jennings, Ross J., additional, Johnson, Aaron D., additional, Jones, Megan L., additional, Kaiser, Andrew R., additional, Kaplan, David L., additional, Kelley, Luke Zoltan, additional, Kerr, Matthew, additional, Key, Joey S., additional, Klein, Tonia C., additional, Laal, Nima, additional, Lam, Michael T., additional, Lamb, William G., additional, W. Lazio, T. Joseph, additional, Lewandowska, Natalia, additional, Littenberg, Tyson B., additional, Liu, Tingting, additional, Lommen, Andrea, additional, Lorimer, Duncan R., additional, Luo, Jing, additional, Lynch, Ryan S., additional, Ma, Chung-Pei, additional, Madison, Dustin R., additional, Mattson, Margaret A., additional, McEwen, Alexander, additional, McKee, James W., additional, McLaughlin, Maura A., additional, McMann, Natasha, additional, Meyers, Bradley W., additional, Meyers, Patrick M., additional, Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., additional, Mitridate, Andrea, additional, Natarajan, Priyamvada, additional, Ng, Cherry, additional, Nice, David J., additional, Ocker, Stella Koch, additional, Olum, Ken D., additional, Pennucci, Timothy T., additional, Perera, Benetge B. P., additional, Petrov, Polina, additional, Pol, Nihan S., additional, Radovan, Henri A., additional, Ransom, Scott M., additional, Ray, Paul S., additional, Romano, Joseph D., additional, Sardesai, Shashwat C., additional, Schmiedekamp, Ann, additional, Schmiedekamp, Carl, additional, Schmitz, Kai, additional, Schult, Levi, additional, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., additional, Siemens, Xavier, additional, Simon, Joseph, additional, Siwek, Magdalena S., additional, Stairs, Ingrid H., additional, Stinebring, Daniel R., additional, Stovall, Kevin, additional, Sun, Jerry P., additional, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, additional, Swiggum, Joseph K., additional, Taylor, Jacob, additional, Taylor, Stephen R., additional, Turner, Jacob E., additional, Unal, Caner, additional, Vallisneri, Michele, additional, van Haasteren, Rutger, additional, Vigeland, Sarah J., additional, Wahl, Haley M., additional, Wang, Qiaohong, additional, Witt, Caitlin A., additional, and Young, Olivia, additional

Published
2023
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10. The NANOGrav 15 yr Data Set: Search for Signals from New Physics

Author

Afzal, Adeela, primary, Agazie, Gabriella, additional, Anumarlapudi, Akash, additional, Archibald, Anne M., additional, Arzoumanian, Zaven, additional, Baker, Paul T., additional, Bécsy, Bence, additional, Blanco-Pillado, Jose Juan, additional, Blecha, Laura, additional, Boddy, Kimberly K., additional, Brazier, Adam, additional, Brook, Paul R., additional, Burke-Spolaor, Sarah, additional, Burnette, Rand, additional, Case, Robin, additional, Charisi, Maria, additional, Chatterjee, Shami, additional, Chatziioannou, Katerina, additional, Cheeseboro, Belinda D., additional, Chen, Siyuan, additional, Cohen, Tyler, additional, Cordes, James M., additional, Cornish, Neil J., additional, Crawford, Fronefield, additional, Cromartie, H. Thankful, additional, Crowter, Kathryn, additional, Cutler, Curt J., additional, DeCesar, Megan E., additional, DeGan, Dallas, additional, Demorest, Paul B., additional, Deng, Heling, additional, Dolch, Timothy, additional, Drachler, Brendan, additional, von Eckardstein, Richard, additional, Ferrara, Elizabeth C., additional, Fiore, William, additional, Fonseca, Emmanuel, additional, Freedman, Gabriel E., additional, Garver-Daniels, Nate, additional, Gentile, Peter A., additional, Gersbach, Kyle A., additional, Glaser, Joseph, additional, Good, Deborah C., additional, Guertin, Lydia, additional, Gültekin, Kayhan, additional, Hazboun, Jeffrey S., additional, Hourihane, Sophie, additional, Islo, Kristina, additional, Jennings, Ross J., additional, Johnson, Aaron D., additional, Jones, Megan L., additional, Kaiser, Andrew R., additional, Kaplan, David L., additional, Kelley, Luke Zoltan, additional, Kerr, Matthew, additional, Key, Joey S., additional, Laal, Nima, additional, Lam, Michael T., additional, Lamb, William G., additional, W. Lazio, T. Joseph, additional, Lee, Vincent S. H., additional, Lewandowska, Natalia, additional, Lino dos Santos, Rafael R., additional, Littenberg, Tyson B., additional, Liu, Tingting, additional, Lorimer, Duncan R., additional, Luo, Jing, additional, Lynch, Ryan S., additional, Ma, Chung-Pei, additional, Madison, Dustin R., additional, McEwen, Alexander, additional, McKee, James W., additional, McLaughlin, Maura A., additional, McMann, Natasha, additional, Meyers, Bradley W., additional, Meyers, Patrick M., additional, Mingarelli, Chiara M. F., additional, Mitridate, Andrea, additional, Nay, Jonathan, additional, Natarajan, Priyamvada, additional, Ng, Cherry, additional, Nice, David J., additional, Ocker, Stella Koch, additional, Olum, Ken D., additional, Pennucci, Timothy T., additional, Perera, Benetge B. P., additional, Petrov, Polina, additional, Pol, Nihan S., additional, Radovan, Henri A., additional, Ransom, Scott M., additional, Ray, Paul S., additional, Romano, Joseph D., additional, Sardesai, Shashwat C., additional, Schmiedekamp, Ann, additional, Schmiedekamp, Carl, additional, Schmitz, Kai, additional, Schröder, Tobias, additional, Schult, Levi, additional, Shapiro-Albert, Brent J., additional, Siemens, Xavier, additional, Simon, Joseph, additional, Siwek, Magdalena S., additional, Stairs, Ingrid H., additional, Stinebring, Daniel R., additional, Stovall, Kevin, additional, Stratmann, Peter, additional, Sun, Jerry P., additional, Susobhanan, Abhimanyu, additional, Swiggum, Joseph K., additional, Taylor, Jacob, additional, Taylor, Stephen R., additional, Trickle, Tanner, additional, Turner, Jacob E., additional, Unal, Caner, additional, Vallisneri, Michele, additional, Verma, Sonali, additional, Vigeland, Sarah J., additional, Wahl, Haley M., additional, Wang, Qiaohong, additional, Witt, Caitlin A., additional, Wright, David, additional, Young, Olivia, additional, and Zurek, Kathryn M., additional

Published
2023
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11. Data-driven Expectations for Electromagnetic Counterpart Searches Based on LIGO/Virgo Public Alerts

Author

Petrov, Polina, Singer, Leo P., Coughlin, Michael W., Kumar, Vishwesh, Almualla, Mouza, Anand, Shreya, Bulla, Mattia, Dietrich, Tim, Foucart, Francois, Guessoum, Nidhal, Petrov, Polina, Singer, Leo P., Coughlin, Michael W., Kumar, Vishwesh, Almualla, Mouza, Anand, Shreya, Bulla, Mattia, Dietrich, Tim, Foucart, Francois, and Guessoum, Nidhal

Abstract

Searches for electromagnetic counterparts of gravitational-wave signals have redoubled since the first detection in 2017 of a binary neutron star merger with a gamma-ray burst, optical/infrared kilonova, and panchromatic afterglow. Yet, one LIGO/Virgo observing run later, there has not yet been a second, secure identification of an electromagnetic counterpart. This is not surprising given that the localization uncertainties of events in LIGO and Virgo's third observing run, O3, were much larger than predicted. We explain this by showing that improvements in data analysis that now allow LIGO/Virgo to detect weaker and hence more poorly localized events have increased the overall number of detections, of which well-localized, gold-plated events make up a smaller proportion overall. We present simulations of the next two LIGO/Virgo/KAGRA observing runs, O4 and O5, that are grounded in the statistics of O3 public alerts. To illustrate the significant impact that the updated predictions can have, we study the follow-up strategy for the Zwicky Transient Facility. Realistic and timely forecasting of gravitational-wave localization accuracy is paramount given the large commitments of telescope time and the need to prioritize which events are followed up. We include a data release of our simulated localizations as a public proposal planning resource for astronomers.

Published
2022
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