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To reach the goals of the Paris Agreement, global emissions should be reduced to net zero by mid-century. The steel sector is an emission-intensive industrial subsector where low-carbon production routes are emerging, and recent studies have shown that rapid decarbonization of the sector is technically possible. However, several barriers block the sector-wide diffusion of low-carbon steelmaking. Inertia and barriers to exit inhibit the closure of emission-intensive plants, thus driving overcapacity and trade conflicts which in turn risk undermining the global steel transition. Drawing on the industrial transitions literature, we find that phase-out policy has a key role to play in overcoming inertia and barriers to exit, increasing the pace of exits in the steel sector, and enabling market space for low-emission steelmaking. Still, reviewing policy mixes in the top four steelmaking jurisdictions, we observe that these are primarily oriented towards phasing-in low-emission capacity rather than phasing-out emission-intensive capacity. In an analysis of low-emission steel projects in the LeadIT Green Steel Tracker, we find that almost half of these projects are financially backed by government, revealing that support for phase-ins is sparking a renaissance for subsidies in the steel sector. At the same time, we find that green steel projects, in aggregate, are increasing total steelmaking capacity. To minimize overcapacity and trade conflicts in the steel transition, policymakers should develop new corresponding phase-out policies that support and increase the pace of closures, to enable a rapid sector-wide diffusion of low-emission steelmaking. Key policy insights: While rapid emission reductions are technically possible in the steel sector, frictions such as overcapacity and trade conflicts risk impeding the transition. The steel sector's inertia and barriers to exit are exacerbating these frictions, and targeted phase-out policies are needed to overcome these blockages. Steel decarbonization policies in top steelmaking jurisdictions are oriented towards phasing-in green steel, not on phasing-out emission-intensive steelmaking. Green steel projects are increasing total steelmaking capacity, and to a high degree are financially supported by governments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well established that the reaction cycles involving some halogenated alkanes (so-called ozone-depleting substances—ODSs) contribute to the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere, prompting the Montreal Protocol (initially signed in 1987), and later amendments. The Protocol called for the scheduled phase-out of ODSs, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), halon, methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3), methyl chloride (CH3Cl), and even hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In view of the urgent importance of ozone layer protection to the global ecological environment, the Taiwanese government has taken regulatory actions to reduce ODS consumption since 1993, through the joint venture of the central competent authorities. Under the government's regulatory requirements, and the industry's efforts to adopt both alternatives to ODSs and abatement technologies, the phase-out of some ODSs (i.e., CFCs, CCl4, halon, and CH3CCl3) was achieved prior to 2010. The consumption of HCFCs and methyl chloride has significantly declined over the past three decades (1993–2022). However, HFC emissions indicated a V-type variation during this period. Due to local production and extensive use of HFCs in Taiwan, the country's emissions increased from 663 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) in 1993 to 2330 kilotons of CO2eq in 2001, and then decreased to 373 kilotons of CO2eq in 2011. Since then, the emissions of HFCs largely used as the alternatives to ODSs showed an upward trend, increasing to 1555 kilotons of CO2eq in 2022. To be in compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2015) to the Montreal Protocol for mitigating global warming, the Taiwanese government has taken regulatory actions to reduce the consumption of some HFC substances with high global warming potential (GWP) under the authorization of the Climate Change Response Act in 2023, aiming at an 80% reduction by 2045 of the baseline consumption in 2024. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Lock-in to existing assets and business practices is a major obstacle to the global objective of phasing out coal-fired power to accelerate decarbonization towards Paris Agreement goals. Japan has attracted attention in previous literature, with several studies demonstrating how market and political conditions have propelled investments in new coal-fired power plants while raising barriers to achieving a phase-out. But in addition to market-level conditions, firm-level characteristics – including assets, commitments, investment behaviour and future-oriented innovation activities – are also critical determinants of lock-in vulnerability. To deepen understanding of how such firm-level dynamics might affect the power industry, this empirical study takes the case of ten incumbent utilities in Japan to identify and compare potential sources of coal lock-in. We leverage diverse quantitative and qualitative data to assess the state of: (1) management, assets and operational factors; and (2) the development and deployment of next-generation coal technologies. Through this two-fold approach, we demonstrate how current conditions and future-oriented activities are likely to reinforce tendencies to continue using coal in coming decades, thereby hampering the emergence of phase-out ambitions. These findings harbour important implications for climate policy and the urgent need to end coal burning in the power sector. Japan's major power utilities all intend to maintain coal in power mixes while transitioning to net-zero by 2050, aiming to eliminate carbon emissions rather than coal-fired power per se. Ambitions to reduce dependence on coal are weakened by a multitude of potential lock-in sources across individual utilities. All utilities are attempting to commercialize next-generation technologies such as co-firing with ammonia and biomass, carbon capture and coal gasification. Phasing out coal in Japan thus requires climate policies that incentivize the development and diffusion of non-emitting power sources that offer faster emissions reduction than expensive and unproven technologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global climate budget for 1.5°C necessitates distributing future CO2 emissions to individual countries. In Germany, this translates to 3.1 billion tons (January 2022). All sectors must engage to meet this target, particularly the lignite (i.e. low-grade brown coal) sector. This entails leaving significant reserves untapped. Also, economic factors are already driving a decline in coal consumption, aided by Germany's renewable expansion and rising CO2 prices. Forecasts suggest lignite phase-out by 2030, prompting reevaluation of mining plans without devastation of villages. The paper proposes new mining plans for the main lignite regions Rhineland and Lusatia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations climate summits—Conferences of the Parties, or COPs—have emerged as important sites to confront fossil fuel incumbents. While new research indicates that least developed countries (LDCs) are challenging incumbents at COPs by calling upon them to phase out fossil fuel, there is limited research on how the coalition of LDCs is strategizing to confront incumbents and their capacity to do so. I address this gap by drawing on 24 interviews with LDCs' negotiators and observers. Informed by the strategic power perspective and the neo-Gramscian account of power, it identifies three central dynamics in how LDCs contest fossil fuel incumbents. First, negotiators undertake "soft" strategies at negotiations to call upon incumbents to reduce fossil fuel consumption, while observers pursue "hard" tactics at side events to press incumbents to phase out production. Second, the coalition is divided between those countries focused on reducing fossil fuel consumption versus those emphasizing the need for a production phase-out. This split creates disagreement, contestation, and division in the coalition. Finally, the coalition's capacity to confront incumbents is restrained by three obstacles: fragile strategies, varied interests and fragmentation in the coalition and the G77+ China, and interstate relations between LDCs and incumbents shaped by political economic factors and colonial legacy. The LDCs' coalition is central to advancing supply-side climate policy in international climate negotiations. Overcoming these divisions and barriers would enhance the coalition's capacity to exert pressure on incumbents, particularly major fossil fuel-producing states. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well established that the reaction cycles involving some halogenated alkanes (so-called ozone-depleting substances—ODSs) contribute to the depletion of ozone in the stratosphere, prompting the Montreal Protocol (initially signed in 1987), and later amendments. The Protocol called for the scheduled phase-out of ODSs, including chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), hydrochlorofluorocarbons (HCFCs), carbon tetrachloride (CCl4), halon, methyl chloroform (CH3CCl3), methyl chloride (CH3Cl), and even hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs). In view of the urgent importance of ozone layer protection to the global ecological environment, the Taiwanese government has taken regulatory actions to reduce ODS consumption since 1993, through the joint venture of the central competent authorities. Under the government’s regulatory requirements, and the industry’s efforts to adopt both alternatives to ODSs and abatement technologies, the phase-out of some ODSs (i.e., CFCs, CCl4, halon, and CH3CCl3) was achieved prior to 2010. The consumption of HCFCs and methyl chloride has significantly declined over the past three decades (1993–2022). However, HFC emissions indicated a V-type variation during this period. Due to local production and extensive use of HFCs in Taiwan, the country’s emissions increased from 663 kilotons of carbon dioxide equivalents (CO2eq) in 1993 to 2330 kilotons of CO2eq in 2001, and then decreased to 373 kilotons of CO2eq in 2011. Since then, the emissions of HFCs largely used as the alternatives to ODSs showed an upward trend, increasing to 1555 kilotons of CO2eq in 2022. To be in compliance with the Kigali Amendment (KA-2015) to the Montreal Protocol for mitigating global warming, the Taiwanese government has taken regulatory actions to reduce the consumption of some HFC substances with high global warming potential (GWP) under the authorization of the Climate Change Response Act in 2023, aiming at an 80% reduction by 2045 of the baseline consumption in 2024.

The latest climate science provides stark warnings around the need for a transition away from further oil and gas exploration. Denmark, as a leader in the oil and gas transition, has already cancelled new oil and gas permits and is pursuing the phase-out of existing oil production in the Danish North Sea by 2050. Progress in other areas of the world, however, is more circumscribed, giving rise to a landscape of both 'leaders' and 'laggards' across value chains. This Special Issue unites the need for market-led oil and gas just transitions with net zero emission ambitions, critically analyzing the potential for a just transition (or transitions) by 2040. This editorial provides introductory context to nine articles and summarizes their key policy insights. The nine contributions present interdisciplinary and mixed method perspectives from globally diverse country contexts. Papers explore oil and gas transitions across the value chain and with attention to a range of stakeholders and processes, including public norm development, tribunals, and industry investments. Whilst there is growing consensus across various actors and institutions in society around the need to phase-out oil and gas, the papers also showcase that care must be taken to avoid perverse incentives, engage the public, steer investment, engage with controversies, account for emerging producers, consider country phase-out sequencing, account for indirect and direct job losses, and consider investor compensation caps. Across all contributions, and alongside reflections of the various barriers and enablers for obtaining just outcomes, considerations of just transitions thinking appear in several different ways. They appear conceptually, empirically (in terms of research findings), as guidance for decision-making, and as an aspirational outcome or target to be obtained; that is, just transition is treated in the same way as the phase-out of oil and gas - as a process and a goal. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Limiting the global mean temperature increase to 1.5°C requires phasing out fossil fuel combustion almost entirely within the next three decades and replacing carbon-intensive technologies with low-carbon alternatives. Such socio-technical transitions are politically feasible only if public acceptance is sufficiently high. Here we investigate German citizens' views on the phase-out of internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) using a random forest (decision trees) classification and logistic regression model. We surveyed a demographically representative sample (N = 1,663) in 2021, finding that the majority of respondents (67%) approve of an ICEV phase-out by 2040 or hold a neutral stance. Acceptability is best predicted by the degree to which environmental problems are attributed to ICEVs, followed by respondents' willingness to abandon cars altogether or adopt electric vehicles (EVs). Our results further indicate that acceptability can be increased by providing people with information that present EVs in a more favourable, and ICEVs in a less favourable light. When the European Commission proposed to ban the sale of ICEVs by 2035, we conducted a follow-up survey to investigate whether this had influenced acceptability in Germany – with the result that it had not. In terms of concrete policies, pull measures such as public transport or electric vehicle purchase subsidies are preferred by the public over more restrictive policies such as taxes or bans. The findings of this study shed light on different dimensions of public opinion and their important implications for policymaking and the political feasibility of this socio-technical transition. Insights from this research can help policymakers in designing effective yet widely acceptable transport decarbonization policies. Overall, 45% of respondents approve of an ICEV phase-out by 2040, while 34% disapprove. Acceptability is best predicted by the degree to which environmental problems are attributed to ICEVs, as well as respondents' willingness to adopt electric vehicles or give up their cars altogether. Emphasizing the advantages of electric vehicles or the adverse effects of ICEVs increases acceptability, while indicating the inevitability of an eventual phase-out does not. On average, public transport and electric vehicle purchase subsidies enjoy higher levels of public support than taxes or different permutations of ICEV bans. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government authorities often view the 3Rs of "replace, reduce, refine" popularized by Russell and Burch as both a regulatory principle and a governance principle aimed at reducing the total amount of animal distress in science. They thus expect that the 3Rs should, in time, result in changes in total animal experimentation numbers. Communications by Swiss authorities provide stark examples of this expectation. But the 3Rs do not aim at affecting animal experimentation at the level of total numbers; rather, they focus on study design in the individual case. While the underlying philosophy of the 3Rs indeed included a principle of seeking feasible overall reforms, this notion is completely absent in the 3Rs framework itself. Authorities need to stop treating the 3Rs as a means to reduce total distress and should instead invest resources into developing feasible and effective strategies for transformative governance in animal research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine, many countries see coal as the easiest solution to their energy sector challenges, despite the consequences for climate goals. Several countries of the European Union started to re-evaluate their coal policies vis-à-vis the current energy crisis and, although such a change is expected to be short-term in nature, it nevertheless has negative consequences for the Union's 2050 climate goal. However, most of the EU countries did not revise their phase-out goals. This paper examines Slovakia as a country that embarked on a coal phase-out trajectory only a few years before the pandemic broke out and stayed firmly on this path despite benefits stemming from the continued use of domestic coal. Domestic coal used to be considered a safeguard of energy security in Slovakia, especially after the 2009 gas crisis. However, a decision was made in 2018 to phase out coal by 2023, and this has not changed despite increased focus on domestic energy sources as energy security guarantors during the current energy crisis. This paper explains the decision in favour of a coal phase-out and its support vis-à-vis the energy crisis using the concept of 'financial Europeanisation', which stresses the importance of EU funds for the development of the domestic policies of EU member states. While the expected funds serve as a catalyst for the coal phase-out needed to reach climate goals, short-term advantages of revising a coal phase-out were outweighed by long-term benefits provided by EU funds. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IntroductionThis paper set out to investigate the relationship between teaching and clinical practice of direct posterior restoration placement at tertiary dental institutions in South Africa.MethodsA cross-sectional study using a mixed methods approach was conducted, and all the South African dental schools were invited to participate. The quantitative phase of the study analyzed the Conservative Dentistry department's records of direct restorations at a single dental school. The number of amalgam and tooth-colored restorations placed by students in the fourth and fifth year of the program from 2004 to 2019 were compared. During the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were held with staff from the four dental schools involved with the teaching of direct posterior restorations.ResultsThe predominant direct posterior restoration placed in student clinics over a 15-year period at a South African dental school was tooth colored (75%). Teaching times do not correspond to a decrease in the placement of dental amalgam restorations for both one-surface and two-surface posterior restorations and a concomitant increase in the tooth-colored restorations.DiscussionAcademic staff involved in teaching identified that South Africa's ratification of the Minamata Convention has consequences for dental education and training. However, all schools reported that dental amalgam would continue to be taught in the absence of an appropriate alternative.

Several European countries plan to phase out coal-fired power plants in order to reach their greenhouse gas abatement targets. Additionally, the phase-out will bring about so-called ancillary effects or co-effects. In our study, we focus on the co-effects induced in the countries that export coal to Europe. Furthermore, we examine the ancillary effects imposed on China as a major supplier of technologies (like solar energy technologies) that will replace coal-fired power plants. Using a combination of an input-output model, econometric analysis and employing the concept of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals, we assess impacts of coal phase-out policies on environmental, economic, and societal dimensions. Our results show that despite negative impacts on income and employment in coal-exporting countries, a phase-out of coal-fired power plants is linked with multiple positive effects. In particular, we observe improvements in water management and biodiversity conservation, reduced release of pollutants, and improvements on a societal level. However, even if we consider a reduction in the use of coal in the European steel production sector as an additional challenge, these positive impacts on coal exporting countries remain rather small. The same applies to the effects we observe for China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Energy Charter Treaty (ECT), which provides for an investment protection regime in the energy sector, has been undergoing a modernisation process. The European Union (EU) submitted a proposal with a focus on aligning the ECT with the Paris Agreement. This article explores whether the EU proposal, which is largely reflected in the agreement in principle on the modernisation of the ECT, constitutes a model for a climate-friendly investment treaty. It analyses the aspired phase-out of protection for fossil fuels, the right to regulate, fair and equitable treatment and the sustainable development chapter together with its State-to-State dispute settlement mechanism. Given the phase-out of fossil fuel protection, the article argues that the proposal is too restrictive for climate-friendly investors. At the same time, its provisions on the right to regulate and sustainable development are not innovative enough for a climate-friendly investment treaty, although its State-to-State dispute settlement mechanism holds potential for inter-State climate litigation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Justice is neglected in research on destabilisation in sustainability transitions. • A framework for just destabilisation expands the analysis of justice beyond outcomes. • Peat phase-out in energy and agriculture involve justice concerns beyond compensation of losses. • Addressing existing injustices may help avert resistance to destabilisation. • Focusing on restorative justice helps attending to structural injustices. The deliberate destabilisation of regimes has gained attention in sustainability transitions scholarship regarding the urgency of transitions. However, there has been little focus on justice in deliberate destabilisation literature. Without attention to justice, destabilisation policies can cause unforeseen negative social, economic, or environmental impacts. Justice has mainly been explored in terms of compensating losses for regime actors, local communities, and industry workers, which may overlook broader justice concerns. We propose a framework for just destabilisation that acknowledges not only the distribution of gains and losses, but also the recognitional and procedural justice concerns inherent in destabilisation. Our analysis of the destabilisation of peat in the energy and agricultural sectors in Finland suggests four main implications for research, paying attention to the spatial nestedness of deliberate destabilisation; diversifying the understanding of incumbency; moving beyond compensations; and finally, attending to existing structural injustices to account for restorative justice in deliberate destabilisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In 2015, one of the largest healthcare companies in the world committed to phasing out from all its products and processes worldwide any substances declared by the European Chemicals Agency to be of very high concern. Since then, extended practical experience was gained in the phasing out of substances of concern. Results: We report in detail on a company-wide programme to phase out substances of concern, the challenges of and the approaches to the phase-out. The paper provides concrete ideas of how to address the legitimate urge to remove substances of concern from economic activities in a holistic way, taking into account the broad diversity of aspects of sustainability. The present paper also reviews the regulatory and societal environment in which substances of concern are being phased out. The paper attempts to contribute to the ongoing discussion of how to improve the chemicals policy in Europe and beyond. Conclusions: Phasing out substances of concern, substance selection for new products and processes, and the avoidance of regrettable substitutions while maintaining the pace of genuine innovation will stay a major challenge for our industry in the years ahead whereby not only toxicological and ecotoxicological hazards have to be considered in the selection and deselection of substances, but also other sustainability criteria characterising the entire life cycle will play an increasingly important role. Legislators and industry need to pay more attention to how this is implemented while avoiding slowing down innovation, making essential products unnecessarily more expensive, and further pushing material production out of highly regulated countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animal experimentation raises value conflicts between animal protection and other goods, such as freedom of inquiry or health and safety. If governments can phase out the practice by non-prohibitive incentive-setting, the pro tanto moral rationale for doing so is obvious. So why should they not? This article first sketches a fictional scenario in which a government adopts a phase-out plan for animal experimentation. It then considers two moral objections to this plan: First, the plan unduly restricts freedom of inquiry, and second, it merely displaces animal experimentation across borders and thus fails to reduce animal suffering. Both arguments are refined premise by premise to articulate their strongest versions. The two objections can help to narrow down desiderata for good phase-out plans. However, they do not provide a compelling case against phase-out planning as such because they miss its incremental and constructive nature. Unless better arguments can be provided, it appears that government inaction on phasing out animal experimentation lacks moral justification.

In the European Union, peatlands are largely drained for agriculture resulting in significant environmental damage and CO 2 emissions. Rewetting is seen as an effective tool to reduce CO 2 emissions, but drainage-based agricultural practices are locked-in. Instead of describing the scaling up of agriculture on wet peatlands, this paper examines the termination of drained peatlands use as an exnovation problem. Drawing on sustainability transitions research, we suggest exnovation as a conceptual perspective on the systemic changes towards sustainable agriculture. We propose a perspective on exnovation governance based on four dimensions: discourse, policy instruments, agency, and justice. We assess existing recommendations and government policy for peatland rewetting in Germany in terms of exnovation governance, and highlight strengths and omissions. The exnovation approach provides a new perspective for decision-makers, while peatland also offers a promising avenue for further research within this framework. • Rewetting of peatlands should be understood as the deliberate termination of the practice of drainage. • We spell out peatland rewetting as exnovation problem with four dimensions: discourse, policy instruments, agency, and justice. • Termination should be part of a governance strategy for a sustainability transition within the agricultural sector. • The exnovation perspective on rewetting offers a theoretically founded, systematic underpinning for existing policy suggestions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Phase-out research and policy should mind systems change rather than emphasize technological substitution. • Research and policy should mind the timing and interaction among phase-out and innovation efforts. • Research and policy should mind the politics of phase-out, including issues of power, legitimacy, and equity. Phase-out is rapidly gaining traction as a central part of practical efforts to address sustainability challenges. However, the way it has been conceived of in policy debates and some academic work is problematic in that it (1) tends to be narrowly focused on substitution; (2) underexposes the bi-directional relationship between phase-outs and innovation; and (3) pays insufficient attention to political challenges. To fully reap the potential of phase-out in sustainability transitions, we call for a more integrative body of scholarship. We identify three important avenues to advance this agenda: First, shifting the unit of analysis to socio-technical systems and the reconfiguration of entire regimes will help to elucidate the multiple logics underlying phase-outs. Second, deepening insights on the timing and interaction between phase-out and innovation will unveil the potential of phase-outs in accelerating transitions. Finally, engaging with issues of power, political legitimacy, and equity is required to mitigate political challenges. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study links voter-centred and interest group perspectives to assess the role structurally powerful businesses can play in contested political issues. Revisiting the literature on business influence in politics, incumbent businesses are theorised to strategically use their structural power to influence voters’ preferences. The conceptual framework is illustrated with a case study of a direct democratic vote related to Swiss energy policy. To empirically trace the role incumbent businesses played in the run-up to the vote, the study employs a two-step approach. First, it uses Discourse Network Analysis (DNA) to examine arguments and actor coalitions in the public debate preceding the vote. Second, the DNA results inform a statistical analysis of survey data on voting behaviour. The findings suggest that incumbent businesses can use their structural power strategically to shape voting behaviour. The study stimulates the discussion about political power relationships in societies and enriches the nascent debate about phasing out unsustainable energy infrastructure. Importantly, it opens up ways to combine DNA with other methods, an avenue that shows promise for use and further refinement in future applications.

We investigate the displacement effects of unilateral phase-out-of-coal policies in a stylized two-country model with coal- and gas-fired electricity generation in an international emissions trading scheme. In the basic policy scenario, electricity markets are national and one country bans coal while the emissions cap remains unchanged. The allocative displacement effects are strongly asymmetric: the coal-banning country suffers a welfare loss, the other country is better off, and aggregate welfare declines. Furthermore, the permit price decreases, while the electricity price rises in the unilaterally acting country and declines in the other country. If all countries would phase out coal, the effects would be symmetric and all countries would lose. We then extend the analysis to the cases (i) when the unilateral coal ban is combined with a moderate cut of the emissions cap (as recently suggested in an EU Directive) and (ii) when we allow for international trade in electricity. Compared to the basic unilateral policy, in these cases, the total welfare costs tend to be smaller and some tend to be shifted from the unilaterally acting country to the other one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Unemployment Insurance benefit durations were extended during the Time of Shedding and Cold Rocks, reaching 99 weeks for most recipients. The extensions were rolled back and eventually terminated by the end of 2013. Using matched CPS data from 2008-2014, we estimate the effect of extended benefits on unemployment exits separately during the earlier period of benefit expansion and the later period of rollback. In both periods, we find little or no effect on job-finding but a reduction in labor force exits due to benefit availability. We estimate that the rollbacks reduced the labor force participation rate by about 0.1 percentage point in early 2014.

Phasing out coal is a crucial lever in reaching international climate targets. However, the resulting jobs losses might trigger voter backlash, making phase-outs politically costly. Here, we present an analysis of the electoral response to coal mining job losses in US presidential elections using matched and bordering difference-in-difference estimators. Our findings confirm that fossil fuel phase-outs can result in voter backlash. In our main specification, we find a four percentage-point (pp) increase in the Republican vote share in 2012 (range across specs. = 3.6 pp–4.5 pp), declining to 3.2 pp in 2016 (range across specs. = 3.2 pp–4.2 pp), in counties suffering from coal mining job loss. The estimated electoral response is around three times as large as the number of jobs lost. We observe this response only in places where there was significant job loss, where these jobs accounted for a large share of locally available jobs and where income levels were low. Relative party strengths do not influence the results.

‘Phase-out’ is increasingly mobilised in research and policymaking as an approach to catalyse the gradual decline of technologies, substances and practices that compromise environmental sustainability objectives. This trend is particularly pronounced in the context of climate change, demonstrated by the accumulation of a vast body of scholarship over multiple decades. Our work provides the first systematic review of the state of this knowledge, mapping out how phase-out is studied and employed as a policy tool for mitigating climate change. We systematically review over 400 publications, spanning three decades (1990–2021) and diverse scientific fields. Our review asks: how has scholarly work discussed phase-out as an approach to mitigate climate change, and how has this changed over time? We tackle this question from five perspectives: (a) elements targeted by phase-outs, (b) policy instruments, (c) affected industries, (d) geographic context, and (e) benefits besides climate change mitigation. Results reveal that phase-out has widely proliferated as a decarbonisation approach, developing into a bridging concept that links diverse communities of contemporary science and practice. This is reflected by engagement with manifold phase-out targets—stretching well beyond the usual suspects related to fossil fuels and end-use technologies—as well as discussion of a growing diversity of industries, policy instruments and geographies in the literature. This global proliferation of phase-outs is propelled by expectations of diverse co-benefits. Aside from gains for the environment, economy, society and health, we find widespread acknowledgment that phase-out can drive innovation and systemic change beyond the mere substitution of problematic technologies and materials. Our study also identifies several underdeveloped and underrepresented directions meriting further study. These notably include phase-out activity beyond Europe, North America and China, hard-to-abate industry sectors and non-fossil fuel targets. We conclude by carving out broader implications for scholars and practitioners to inform future research directions and climate mitigation efforts.

Abstract Background While there are plenty of studies investigating the market penetration of new technologies, phase-out processes of a predominant technology are rarely analyzed. The present study explores the case of a declining technology, employing the example of coal-fired power plants in Germany. These plants were promoted by governmental decision-makers as well as by the industry for a long time, but meanwhile, the phase-out or at least a cutback of coal-fired power plants is––not only in Germany––considered to be a key strategy for the transformation towards a sustainable society. Methods We investigate potential pathways of the future development of the coal-fired power plant sector in an extended multi-level perspective (MLP) framework that integrates economic, social, political, and technical aspects. Results Taking into account the fact that coal is losing its support from several important stakeholders (e.g., governmental decision-makers, utilities) due to, e.g., changes in the prioritization of political goals, changes in the economic framework, in actor constellations, and in public attitudes, coal-fired power plants tend to be pushed into niches or to disappear completely. Conclusions A reasonable management of the niche technology “coal-fired power plants” could include a protection of space for ensuring a smooth removal of the links between the regime and the technology with respect to, e.g., social and environmental aspects. The phase-out pathways for the coal-fired power plants elaborated on in this paper help to better inform policy-makers to design transformation processes not only for coal-fired power but also for other declining technologies.

Abstract Background There is a concern that continued emissions of man-made per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) may cause environmental and human health effects. Now widespread in human populations and in the environment, several PFASs are also present in remote regions of the world, but the environmental transport and fate of PFASs are not well understood. Phasing out the manufacture of some types of PFASs started in 2000 and further regulatory and voluntary actions have followed. The objective of this review is to understand the effects of these actions on global scale PFAS concentrations. Methods Searches for primary research studies reporting on temporal variations of PFAS concentrations were performed in bibliographic databases, on the internet, through stakeholder contacts and in review bibliographies. No time, document type, language or geographical constraints were applied in the searches. Relevant subjects included human and environmental samples. Two authors screened all retrieved articles. Dual screening of 10% of the articles was performed at title/abstract and full-text levels by all authors. Kappa tests were used to test consistency. Relevant articles were critically appraised by four reviewers, with double checking of 20% of the articles by a second reviewer. Meta-analysis of included temporal trends was considered but judged to not be appropriate. The trends were therefore discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results Available evidence suggests that human concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorodecane sulfonate (PFDS), and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) generally are declining, while previously increasing concentrations of perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS) have begun to level off. Rapid declines for PFOS-precursors (e.g. perfluorooctane sulfonamide, FOSA) have also been consistently observed in human studies. In contrast, limited data indicate that human concentrations of PFOS and PFOA are increasing in China where the production of these substances has increased. Human concentrations of longer-chained perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) with 9–14 carbon atoms are generally increasing or show insignificant trends with too low power to detect a trend. For abiotic and biological environmental samples there are no clear patterns of declining trends. Most substances show mixed results, and a majority of the trends are insignificant with low power to detect a trend. Conclusions For electrochemically derived PFASs, including PFOS and PFOA, most human studies in North America and Europe show consistent statistically significant declines. This contrasts with findings in wildlife and in abiotic environmental samples, suggesting that declining PFOS, PFOS-precursor and PFOA concentrations in humans likely resulted from removal of certain PFASs from commercial products including paper and board used in food packaging. Increasing concentrations of long-chain PFCAs in most matrices, and in most regions, is likely due to increased use of alternative PFASs. Continued temporal trend monitoring in the environment with well-designed studies with high statistical power are necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of past and continuing regulatory mitigation measures. For humans, more temporal trend studies are needed in regions where manufacturing is most intense, as the one human study available in China is much different than in North America or Europe.

Promoting low‐carbon innovation has long been a central preoccupation within both the practice and theory of climate change mitigation. However, deep lock‐ins indicate that existing carbon‐intensive systems will not be displaced or reconfigured by innovation alone. A growing number of studies and practical initiatives suggest that mitigation efforts will need to engage with the deliberate decline of carbon‐intensive systems and their components (e.g., technologies and practices). Yet, despite this realisation, the role of intentional decline in decarbonization remains poorly understood and the literature in this area continues to be dispersed among different bodies of research and disciplines. In response, this article structures the fragmented strands of research engaging with purposive decline, interrogating the role it may play in decarbonization. It does so by systematically surveying concepts with particular relevance for intentional decline, focusing on phase‐out, divestment, and destabilization. This article is categorized under:Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand > Decarbonizing Energy and/or Reducing Demand [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study links voter-centred and interest group perspectives to assess the role structurally powerful businesses can play in contested political issues. Revisiting the literature on business influence in politics, incumbent businesses are theorised to strategically use their structural power to influence voters' preferences. The conceptual framework is illustrated with a case study of a direct democratic vote related to Swiss energy policy. To empirically trace the role incumbent businesses played in the run-up to the vote, the study employs a two-step approach. First, it uses discourse network analysis (DNA) to examine arguments and actor coalitions in the public debate preceding the vote. Second, the DNA results inform a statistical analysis of survey data on voting behaviour. The findings suggest that incumbent businesses can use their structural power strategically to shape voting behaviour. The study stimulates the discussion about political power relationships in societies and enriches the nascent debate about phasing out unsustainable energy infrastructure. Importantly, it opens up ways to combine DNA with other methods, an avenue that shows promise for use and further refinement in future applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Policies to phase out fossil fuel cars are key to averting dangerous and irreversible changes to the earth's climate. Given the potential impacts of such policies on every-day routines and behaviours, the factors that might increase or decrease their public acceptance require investigation. Here we study the role of specific policy design features in shaping Americans' preferences for policy proposals to phase out fossil fuel cars. In light of the urgency of action against climate change, we are specifically interested in citizens' preferences with respect to the timing of phase-out policies. Based on a demographically representative sample of 1,520 American residents rating 24,320 hypothetical policy scenarios in a conjoint experiment, we find that Americans prefer phase-out policies to be implemented no later than 2030. Policy features other than timing are also important: higher policy costs significantly reduce public support; subsidies for alternative technologies are preferred over taxes and bans; and policy co-benefits in terms of pollution reduction increase public support only when they are substantial. The study also investigates the role of individual characteristics in shaping policy preferences, finding that perceived psychological distance of climate change and party identification influence policy preferences. The results of this study have important implications for the political feasibility of rapid decarbonization initiatives like the 'Green New Deal' that are now being discussed in the US and beyond. Among these is the insight that smart sequencing of policies (early implementation of subsidies for low-emission technologies, followed by tax increases and/or bans) might help ensure majority support for a fossil fuel car phase-out. Key Policy Insights On average, respondents prefer policies to phase out fossil fuel cars to take effect no later than 2030. Party identification and perceived psychological distance of climate change influence timing preferences for phase-out policies. On average, subsidies for low-emission alternatives find higher public support than hard regulations, such as increases of fossil fuels taxes and bans on new fossil fuel cars sales. Smart sequencing of subsidies for alternative technologies and hard regulations should help increase the public acceptance of a phase-out of fossil-fuel cars. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research involves the combination of spare parts management and reverse logistics. At the end of the product life cycle, products in the field (so called installed base) can usually be serviced by either new parts, obtained from a Last Time Buy, or by repaired failed parts. This article, however, introduces a third source: the phase-out returns obtained from customers that replace systems. These returned parts may serve other customers that do not replace the systems yet. Phase-out return flows represent higher volumes and higher repair yields than failed parts and are cheaper to get than new ones. This new phenomenon has been ignored in the literature thus far, but due to increased product replacements rates its relevance will grow. We present a generic model, applied in a case study with real-life data from ConRepair, a third-party service provider in plant control systems (mainframes). Volumes of demand for spares, defect returns and phase-out returns are interrelated, because the same installed base is involved. In contrast with the existing literature, this article explicitly models the operational control of both failed- and phase-out returns, which proves far from trivial given the non-stationary nature of the problem. We have to consider subintervals within the total planning interval to optimise both Last Time Buy and control policies well. Given the novelty of the problem, we limit ourselves to a single customer, single-item approach. Our heuristic solution methods prove to be efficient and close to optimal when validated. The resulting control policies in the case study are also counter-intuitive. Contrary to (management) expectations, exogenous variables prove to be more important to the repair firm (which we show by sensitivity analysis) and optimising the endogenous control policy benefits the customers. Last Time Buy volume does not make the decisive difference; far more important is the disposal versus repair policy. PUSH control policy is outperformed by PULL, which exploits demand information and waits longer to decide between repair and disposal. The article concludes by mapping a number of extensions for future research, as it represents a larger class of problems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Engages with acceleration of energy transitions. • Studies the conditions for destabilisation policies. • Cases of tobacco control policies in the US and coal mines in the Netherlands. • Integrates perspectives on sustainability transitions and policy processes. • Draws lessons for destabilisation and energy transitions. This paper contributes to recent developments in the literature concerning the need to destabilise existing industries. Challenging established industries through policy can be politically difficult. The purpose of the paper is to draw lessons from examples of the policy-driven destabilisation of established industries and from that, gain a better understanding of which conditions deliberate destabilisation might be possible under. The analytical framework draws together insights from the multilevel perspective and policy process theory. Two historical cases are analysed: the introduction of tobacco control policies in the United States and the decision to close down coal mines in the Netherlands. In its concluding sections, the paper discusses factors that lead to network change, particularly attending to how tensions within key organisations may lead to changes in alliances and thus provide opportunities for phase-out policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To date, atmospheric concentrations of sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) are the most potent among the greenhouse gases identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and are still rising. In the EU-28, SF6 has been banned from several applications, however, an important exception is gas-insulated electrical switchgear (GIS) for which cost-effective and environmentally sound alternatives were unavailable when the F-Gas regulation was last revised in 2014. To date, after some recent innovations, we argue that the phasing out of SF6 could spur the accelerated development of alternatives with a lower carbon footprint. In the EU-28, the SF6 amount in switchgear is unclear. In this paper, we estimated the SF6 amount to be between 10,800 and 24,700 t (with a mode at 12,700 t) in 2017, resulting in 68 to 140 t of annual emissions from operational leakage only, corresponding to 1.6 to 3.3 Mt of CO2-eq. We additionally calculated the potential greenhouse gas savings over the lifecycle of one exemplary 145 kV gas-insulated switchgear bay upon replacing SF6 by decafluoro-2-methylbutan-3-one (C5-FK) and heptafluoro-2-methylpropanenitrile (C4-FN) mixtures. Projecting these results over the EU-28, a phase-out scenario starting from 2020 onwards could reduce the carbon footprint by a median of 14 Mt of CO2-eq, over a period of 50 years. Extrapolation to medium voltage could be assumed to be of a similar magnitude.

Abstract Many outdoor garments are impregnated to make them water and, in some cases oil repellent, but the impregnation agents can be hazardous to human health and the environment. Some examples of such hazardous impregnation agents include per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances. To reduce the risks related to these fluorinated substances, a phase-out is necessary, and voluntary avoidance by consumers may be one way to make this happen. This experimental survey investigates the extent to which information about the hazardous properties of fluorinated substances affects consumer willingness-to-pay for alternative outdoor garments without hazardous chemicals. The experiment was conducted by means of a questionnaire distributed to more than 4000 Swedish respondents via the Laboratory of Opinion Research's Citizen Panel. The results show a generally high willingness-to-pay, and that the effects of providing information are higher when the price increase is high. This suggests that there is room for a price increase if the non-hazardous options are more expensive. This survey experiment indicates that the Swedish general public is ready for substitution to garments without hazardous fluorinated chemicals if the alternative provides an identical function. Information campaigns, however, will have limited ability to increase the willingness-to-pay for an alternative as it is already high. Despite the general willingness of the Swedish public to choose less hazardous options, legislative measures may potentially be the most effective action when supply chains are opaque and information to consumers is limited. Highlights • High public readiness for substitution of hazardous PFAS in outdoor garments. • Information about chemical hazards had effect on willingness-to-pay (WTP). • Room for a price increase if the non-hazardous options are more expensive. • Limited ability to increase the WTP for an alternative when WTP is already high. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: There is a concern that continued emissions of man-made per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) may cause environmental and human health effects. Now widespread in human populations and in the environment, several PFASs are also present in remote regions of the world, but the environmental transport and fate of PFASs are not well understood. Phasing out the manufacture of some types of PFASs started in 2000 and further regulatory and voluntary actions have followed. The objective of this review is to understand the effects of these actions on global scale PFAS concentrations. Methods: Searches for primary research studies reporting on temporal variations of PFAS concentrations were performed in bibliographic databases, on the internet, through stakeholder contacts and in review bibliographies. No time, document type, language or geographical constraints were applied in the searches. Relevant subjects included human and environmental samples. Two authors screened all retrieved articles. Dual screening of 10% of the articles was performed at title/abstract and full-text levels by all authors. Kappa tests were used to test consistency. Relevant articles were critically appraised by four reviewers, with double checking of 20% of the articles by a second reviewer. Meta-analysis of included temporal trends was considered but judged to not be appropriate. The trends were therefore discussed in a narrative synthesis. Results: Available evidence suggests that human concentrations of perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS), perfluorodecane sulfonate (PFDS), and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) generally are declining, while previously increasing concentrations of perfluorohexane sulfonate (PFHxS) have begun to level off. Rapid declines for PFOS-precursors (e.g. perfluorooctane sulfonamide, FOSA) have also been consistently observed in human studies. In contrast, limited data indicate that human concentrations of PFOS and PFOA are increasing in China where the production of these substances has increased. Human concentrations of longer-chained perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) with 9-14 carbon atoms are generally increasing or show insignificant trends with too low power to detect a trend. For abiotic and biological environmental samples there are no clear patterns of declining trends. Most substances show mixed results, and a majority of the trends are insignificant with low power to detect a trend. Conclusions: For electrochemically derived PFASs, including PFOS and PFOA, most human studies in North America and Europe show consistent statistically significant declines. This contrasts with findings in wildlife and in abiotic environmental samples, suggesting that declining PFOS, PFOS-precursor and PFOA concentrations in humans likely resulted from removal of certain PFASs from commercial products including paper and board used in food packaging. Increasing concentrations of long-chain PFCAs in most matrices, and in most regions, is likely due to increased use of alternative PFASs. Continued temporal trend monitoring in the environment with well-designed studies with high statistical power are necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of past and continuing regulatory mitigation measures. For humans, more temporal trend studies are needed in regions where manufacturing is most intense, as the one human study available in China is much different than in North America or Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the concept of exnovation and the different strategies for the governance of exnovation process. Topics include the relation between exnovation governance and sustainability transformations, the concept of exnovation and their value, and the classification of exnovation governance.