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BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 and influenza are lipid-enveloped viruses with differential morbidity and mortality but shared modes of transmission. ObjectiveWith a descriptive epidemiological framing, we assessed whether recent historical patterns of regional influenza burden are reflected in the observed heterogeneity in COVID-19 cases across regions of the world. MethodsWeekly surveillance data reported by the World Health Organization from January 2017 to December 2019 for influenza and from January 1, 2020 through October 31, 2020, for COVID-19 were used to assess seasonal and temporal trends for influenza and COVID-19 cases across the seven World Bank regions. ResultsIn regions with more pronounced influenza seasonality, COVID-19 epidemics have largely followed trends similar to those seen for influenza from 2017 to 2019. COVID-19 epidemics in countries across Europe, Central Asia, and North America have been marked by a first peak during the spring, followed by significant reductions in COVID-19 cases in the summer months and a second wave in the fall. In Latin America and the Caribbean, COVID-19 epidemics in several countries peaked in the summer, corresponding to months with the highest influenza activity in the region. Countries from regions with less pronounced influenza activity, including South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa, showed more heterogeneity in COVID-19 epidemics seen to date. However, similarities in COVID-19 and influenza trends were evident within select countries irrespective of region. ConclusionsEcological consistency in COVID-19 trends seen to date with influenza trends suggests the potential for shared individual, structural, and environmental determinants of transmission. Using a descriptive epidemiological framework to assess shared regional trends for rapidly emerging respiratory pathogens with better studied respiratory infections may provide further insights into the differential impacts of nonpharmacologic interventions and intersections with environmental conditions. Ultimately, forecasting trends and informing interventions for novel respiratory pathogens like COVID-19 should leverage epidemiologic patterns in the relative burden of past respiratory pathogens as prior information.

BackgroundHuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) prevention intervention programs and related research for men who have sex with men (MSM) in the southern African region remain limited, despite the emergence of a severe epidemic among this group. With a lack of understanding of their social and sexual lives and HIV risks, and with MSM being a hidden and stigmatized group in the region, optimized HIV prevention packages for southern African MSM are an urgent public health and research priority. ObjectiveThe objective of the Sibanye Health Project is to develop and evaluate a combination package of biomedical, behavioral, and community-level HIV prevention interventions and services for MSM in South Africa. MethodsThe project consists of three phases: (1) a comprehensive literature review and summary of current HIV prevention interventions (Phase I), (2) agent-based mathematical modeling of HIV transmission in southern African MSM (Phase II), and (3) formative and stigma-related qualitative research, community engagement, training on providing health care to MSM, and the pilot study (Phase III). The pilot study is a prospective one-year study of 200 men in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa. The study will assess a package of HIV prevention services, including condom and condom-compatible lubricant choices, risk-reduction counseling, couples HIV testing and counseling, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for eligible men, and non-occupational post-exposure prophylaxis for men with a high risk exposure. The pilot study will begin in October 2014. ResultsPreliminary results from all components but the pilot study are available. We developed a literature review database with meta-data extracted from 3800 documents from 67 countries. Modeling results indicate that regular HIV testing and promotion of condom use can significantly impact new HIV infections among South African MSM, even in the context of high coverage of early treatment of HIV-positive men and high coverage of PrEP for at-risk HIV-negative men. Formative qualitative research consisted of 79 in-depth interviews, and six focus group discussions in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth. Analysis of these data has informed pilot study protocol development and has been documented in peer-reviewed manuscripts. Qualitative work regarding stigma faced by South African MSM resulted in finalized scales for use in the pilot study questionnaire. A total of 37 health care providers completed training designed to facilitate clinically and culturally competent care for MSM in the Eastern Cape. ConclusionsThe design of a future, larger study of the HIV prevention package will be conducted at the end of the pilot study, powered to detect efficacy of the prevention package. Data from the updated mathematical model, results of the pilot study, acceptability data, and advancements in HIV prevention sciences will be considered in developing the final proposed package and study design. Trial RegistrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT02043015; http://clinicaltrials.gov/show/NCT02043015 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6THvp7rAj).

Introduction: In generalized epidemic settings, there is insufficient understanding of how the unmet HIV prevention and treatment needs of key populations (KPs), such as female sex workers (FSWs) and men who have sex with men (MSM), contribute to HIV transmission. In such settings, it is typically assumed that HIV transmission is driven by the general population. We estimated the contribution of commercial sex, sex between men, and other heterosexual partnerships to HIV transmission in South Africa (SA). Methods: We developed the 'Key-Pop Model'; a dynamic transmission model of HIV among FSWs, their clients, MSM, and the broader population in SA. The model was parameterized and calibrated using demographic, behavioural and epidemiologica data from national household surveys and KP surveys. We estimated the contribution of commercial sex, sex between men and sex among heterosexual partnerships of different sub-groups to HIV transmission over 2010 to 2019. We also estimated the efficiency (HIV infections averted per person-year of intervention) and prevented fraction (% IA) over 10-years from scaling-up ART (to 81% coverage) in different sub-populations from 2020. Results: Sex between FSWs and their paying clients, and between clients with their non-paying partners contributed 6.9% (95% credibility interval 4.5% to 9.3%) and 41.9% (35.1% to 53.2%) of new HIV infections in SA over 2010 to 2019 respectively. Sex between low-risk groups contributed 59.7% (47.6% to 68.5%), sex between men contributed 5.3% (2.3% to 14.1%) and sex between MSM and their female partners contributed 3.7% (1.6% to 9.8%). Going forward, the largest population-leve impact on HIV transmission can be achieved from scaling up ART to clients of FSWs (% IA = 18.2% (14.0% to 24.4%) or low-risk individuals (% IA = 20.6% (14.7 to 27.5) over 2020 to 2030), with ART scale-up among KPs being most efficient. Conclusions: Clients of FSWs play a fundamental role in HIV transmission in SA. Addressing the HIV prevention and treatment needs of KPs in generalized HIV epidemics is central to a comprehensive HIV response. Keywords: mathematical modelling; population attributable fraction; key populations; female sex workers; clients; men who have sex with men, 1 | INTRODUCTION Despite high HIV prevalence's among key populations (KPs) such as female sex workers (FSW, 39.5% to 71.8% [1-11]) and men who have sex with men (MSM, 13.2% [...]

: Introduction: Men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) are at increased risk for acquiring HIV, but there are limited HIV incidence data for these key populations in Africa. Understanding HIV prevalence and incidence provides important context for designing HIV prevention strategies, including pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) programmes. We describe HIV prevalence, awareness of HIV infection, HIV incidence and associated factors for a cohort of MSM and TGW in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa. Methods: From 2015 to 2016, MSM and TGW in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth were enrolled and prospectively followed for 12 months, receiving a comprehensive package of HIV prevention services. HIV testing was conducted at baseline and at follow‐up visits (targeted for three, six and twelve months). All HIV‐negative PrEP‐eligible participants were offered PrEP enrolment during the first four months of study participation. We determined HIV prevalence among participants at baseline, and incidence by repeat screening of initially HIV‐negative participants with HIV tests at three, six and twelve months. Results: Among 292 participants enrolled, HIV prevalence was high (43%; 95% CI: 38 to 49) and awareness of HIV status was low (50%). The 167 HIV‐negative participants who were followed prospectively for 144.7 person‐years; nine incident HIV infections were documented. Overall annual incidence was 6.2% (CI: 2.8 to 11.8) and did not differ by city. Annual HIV incidence was significantly higher for younger (18 to 19 years) MSM and TGW (MSM: 21.8% (CI: 1.2 to 100); TGW: 31.0 (CI: 3.7, 111.2)). About half of participants started PrEP during the study; the annual incidence of HIV among 82 (49%) PrEP starters was 3.6% (CI: 0.4, 13.1) and among those who did not start PrEP was 7.8% (CI: 3.1, 16.1). Conclusions: HIV incidence was high among MSM and TGW in the context of receiving a comprehensive package of prevention interventions and offering of PrEP. PrEP uptake was high; the observed incidence of HIV in those who started PrEP was about half the incidence of HIV in those who did not. Future implementation‐oriented studies should focus on decisions to start and continue PrEP for those at highest risk, including young MSM., INTRODUCTION HIV disproportionally impacts men who have sex with men (MSM) globally, but data about the impact of HIV in MSM [1] and transgender women (TGW) [2] in sub‐Saharan Africa [...]

: Introduction: Men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) experience high incidence and prevalence of sexually transmitted infections (STI), and data are needed to understand risk factors for STIs in these populations. The Sibanye Health Project was conducted in Cape Town and Port Elizabeth, South Africa from 2015 to 2016 to develop and test a package of HIV prevention interventions for MSM and TGW. We describe the incidence, prevalence and symptoms of Chlamydia trachomatis (CT), Neisseria gonorrhea (NG) and syphilis observed during the study. Methods: Participants completed HIV testing at baseline. All participants who were HIV negative were followed prospectively. Additionally, a sample of participants identified as living with HIV at baseline was selected to be followed prospectively so that the prospective cohort was approximately 20% HIV positive; the remaining participants identified as HIV positive at baseline were not followed prospectively. Prospective participants were followed for 12 months and returned for clinic‐based STI/HIV testing and assessment of STI symptoms at months 6 and 12. Additional HIV/STI testing visits could be scheduled at participant request. Results: Following consent, a total of 292 participants attended a baseline visit (mean age = 26 years), and 201 were enrolled for the 12‐month prospective study. Acceptance of screening for syphilis and urethral NG/CT was near universal, though acceptance of screening for rectal NG/CT was lower (194/292; 66%). Prevalence of urethral CT and NG at baseline was 10% (29/289) and 3% (8/288) respectively; incidence of urethral CT and NG was 12.8/100 person‐years (PY) and 7.1/100 PY respectively. Prevalence of rectal CT and NG at baseline was 25% (47/189) and 16% (30/189) respectively; incidence of rectal CT and NG was 33.4/100 PY and 26.8/100 PY respectively. Prevalence of syphilis at baseline was 17% (45/258) and incidence was 8.2/100 PY. 91%, 95% and 97% of diagnosed rectal NG/CT, urethral NG/CT and syphilis infections, respectively, were clinically asymptomatic. Conclusions: Prevalence and incidence of urethral and rectal STIs were high among these South African MSM and TGW, and were similar to rates in other settings in the world. Clinical symptoms from these infections were rare, highlighting limitations of syndromic surveillance and suggesting the need for presumptive testing and/or treatment to address the STI epidemic among MSM/TGW in South Africa., INTRODUCTION There is evidence worldwide that men who have sex with men (MSM) and transgender women (TGW) experience high rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs), such as syphilis, Chlamydia trachomatis [...]

Abstract Background Symptom management for persons living with HIV (PLHIV) or AIDS is an important part of care management. Limited information about symptom prevalence exists about HIV infected persons in South Africa, in particular in the context of antiretroviral treatment (ART). The aim of this study was to assess HIV symptoms and demographic, social and disease variables of people living with HIV in South Africa. Methods In 2007 607 PLHIV, sampled by all districts in the Eastern Cape Province and recruited through convenience sampling, were interviewed by PLHIV at health facilities, key informants in the community and support groups. Results Two-thirds of the PLHIV (66%) classified themselves with being given an AIDS (advanced stage of HIV) diagnosis, 48% were currently on ART, 35% were currently on a disability grant for HIV/AIDS and for 13% the disability grant had been stopped. Participants reported that on the day of the interview, they were experiencing an average of 26.1 symptoms out of a possible 64. In a regression model with demographic and social variables, higher HIV symptom levels were associated with lower educational levels, higher age, urban residence and not on a disability grant, lack of enough food and having a health insurance, and in a regression model with demographic, social and disease variables only being on ART, lack of enough food and having a health insurance were associated with HIV symptoms. Conclusion Symptom assessment provides information that may be valuable in evaluating AIDS treatment regimens and defining strategies to improve quality of life. Because of the high levels of symptoms reported, the results imply an urgent need for effective health care, home- and community-based as well as self-care symptom management to help patients and their families manage and control AIDS symptoms.