Search

The aim of our paper is to provide a comprehensive analysis of current foresight practices and their impact on organizational learning, highlighting recent developments. The analysis is based on around forty foresight projects conducted by the CNAM community of practice in the last ten years or so, based on the typology proposed by Bootz (2003) and Bootz and Monti (2008). The aim is twofold: first, we test the robustness of the initial typology and, second, we examine global developments in foresight practices through an analysis of their cognitive aspects. The examination of present practice led to the typology being refined, and demonstrates how its impact on organizational learning has been extended. It also shows how discussion has evolved through networks that are more open to the outside world and closer to action, with measures and tools adopted to promote greater flexibility. These changes may be partially explained by the emergence of the knowledge economy.

In this paper, we introduce the themes addressed and approaches used by contributors to this special issue. Firstly, we underline that KM is approaching a stage of maturity that requires continuing efforts to use theoretical and empirical investigation to question its future evolution, through a foresight reflection. In parallel, we show that the link between knowledge management and foresight is of long-standing concern. In the context of a knowledge-based economy, this connection has taken on a structuring dimension. Thus, the purpose of this TFSC special issue is two-fold. On the one hand, we seek to explore the impacts of foresight on knowledge management and to understand its cognitive dimensions. And, on the other hand, we cast a future-oriented eye on knowledge management both as a set of practices and a research field. Finally, we present an overview of the topics covered by the selected papers.

L’engouement pour les MOOCs, ces cours en ligne ouverts et massifs, ne faiblit pas a travers le monde. Ce phenomene constitue un cas particulierement representatif de l’acceleration de l’histoire : en a peine deux ans, l’univers de l’enseignement superieur semble avoir bascule. Cet article, apres un retour sur la breve histoire de ce mouvement, en presentera les principales caracteristiques et evoquera certains des defis majeurs qu’il represente pour l’avenir de l’enseignement et, plus generalement, pour la diffusion de connaissances.

Scenarios hold little interest if they are not pertinent, coherent, and plausible. Although foresight requires a rigorous approach to address complex problems, the tools must also be simple enough to be easily used. Since the mid-1980s, the approach in strategic prospective workshops (a term that reminds us of the participatory nature of the French approach) has proven its effectiveness in meeting these criteria (simple, rigorous and appropriable; i.e., may be appropriated by participants). The authors try to reply to simple and important questions: What is a scenario? How to judge the quality of a scenario? Which strategies for which scenarios? These questions remind us that applications of strategic foresight tools are contingent and modular. They could also involve the stakeholders from upstream to downstream, as seen in the agro-food sector. Finally, they argue that the future still has to be built and that futurists produced too many scenarios and not enough projects.

Purpose – The paper aims to query the value of strategies implemented, notably in France, and to demonstrate the largely ignored link between demographics and economics. Design/methodology/approach – The paper achieves its objective by comparing statistics of European Union (EU) members and competitors to reveal that traditional views on economics and social policy may no longer apply. Findings – The paper finds that the Old Europe stagnated due to political lack of will, but a renewed Europe has begun. The Euro as scapegoat for poor performance is dismissed. Productivity figures show how foreign trade and debt can be efficiently managed. Overall, trade must be encouraged worldwide. Low-wage countries will inevitably compete and cannot ethically be ignored. The subsidy debate heats up as the EU agricultural policy ends and the USA extends Farm Aid. Regardless, EU members must focus on sustainable development. The low birthrate in the Old Europe means social policy should be reformed to encourage families to have children and allow selective immigration to meet labour needs. The implication is that France – Europe in general – must review the EU mission and structure. The French president seems to be headed in this direction. In future research, demographics must be monitored to make social and economic plans for the working lives of our youth and retirement of our seniors. Originality/value – This paper will interest economists, politicians and policy-makers, especially those unaware of the role of demographics in productivity and planning.

PurposeThis paper aims to explore the links between demographics and economics and to show how European institutions (like the European Commission) and European policies are slowly but surely taking into account these fundamental relations.Design/methodology/approachThe paper demonstrates the bases of the productivity gap between Europe, especially France, and the USA, by comparing GDP per active worker adjusted with the employment rate. In order to compare the level of wealth, the paper suggests using potential GDP per capita, taking into account the labor effort measured by the number of hours worked.FindingsThere can be no sustainable development without children. In comparison with the USA, Europe has a demographic deficit that is probably greater than any technology gap. All of Europe has discovered that there can be no growth without cradles and that gray hair will probably lead to soft growth. Given that the active population of the Europe of 25 will decrease by more than 20 million people between 2010 and 2030, increased immigration and successful integration of newcomers through more flexible public and family policies are needed.Originality/valueThis paper constitutes an appeal for more research about the links between demographics and economic growth, especially about the existence of a “demographic multiplier”, considering that development is the result of investment not only in technologies, but also in human capital.

La prospective is generally considered to have grown after WWII in developed countries with two main centers, France and the United States of America. In France, the development of prospective does constitute an important point in contemporary history. Stemming from an idea from philosopher Gaston Berger near the end of the 1950s, a spirit arose accompanied by a practice spread in the central administration (government) and in major French corporations. The objective of this article is not to claim any French originality in thinking about the future. Instead, the following pages show how an original approach blending reflection on the future and present action took shape and the relationship that developed involving current practices on the other side of the Atlantic, mainly the USA, with the help of a few intermediaries.

Ce texte vise la tension "apprentissage organisationnel - modèle organisationnel"

Les MOOC sont-ils une revolution pedagogique ou l e dernier avatar a l a mode de pratiques d’enseignement a distance ? Faut-il craindre la marchandisation d’un savoir formate ou se rejouir de voir prise en compte la culture des etudiants d’aujourd’hui ?

Cet article s’attache a montrer comment Cerisy a introduit des savoirs prospectifs dans les domaines de l’organisation et de la decision entre 1968 et 1986 ; quels types de savoirs, dans quels rapports avec les autres sciences humaines et sociales et dans quelles relations avec les institutions de recherche, les entreprises et d’autres organisations ou reseaux. Alors que le lieu, la periode consideree et les domaines abordes pouvaient laisser supposer une identification aisee de savoirs prospectifs, cela n’a pas ete le cas. En definitive, sur la periode consideree, la relation entre la prospective et Cerisy est a la fois proche et lointaine. Proche, car nombreuses sont les personnes presentes a Cerisy, qui ont une relation a la prospective et ont pu y apporter une preoccupation de l’avenir. Lointaine, car la prospective n’est jamais consideree en tant que telle.

Les cooperatives ont aujourd’hui le vent en poupe. Elles representent pour beaucoup une alternative credible, d’une apparence plus humaine, au modele d’entreprise capitaliste actuel. Pourtant, les cooperatives font l’objet de la part de leurs detracteurs de reproches tenant a leur incapacite de disposer des qualites qui font la force d’une entreprise traditionnelle dans un environnement mondialise.Des critiques anciennes elaborees a partir de l’etude d’un cas devenu mythique : le groupe basque espagnol Mondragon. Or, si le modele capitaliste classique a evolue, celui de la cooperative en a fait de meme. Cet article reprend les principales analyses et montre que cette cooperative a su s’adapter et se developper au-dela de nombreuses esperances.Cependant, le rachat d’un groupe industriel europeen en 2005 a dessine une nouvelle ligne de fracture entre deux mondes bien distincts : celui des societaires proprietaires du groupe et celui des autres salaries. Et si les dirigeants de Mondragon insistent pour que la cooperative ne soit pas consideree comme une alternative au systeme capitaliste, c’est bien parce qu’elle s’inscrit pleinement dans la meme vision du monde que celui-ci.

International audience