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Climate change affects timing of reproduction in many bird species, but few studies have investigated its influence on annual reproductive output. Here, we assess changes in the annual production of young by female breeders in 201 populations of 104 bird species (N = 745,962 clutches) covering all continents between 1970 and 2019. Overall, average offspring production has declined in recent decades, but considerable differences were found among species and populations. A total of 56.7% of populations showed a declining trend in offspring production (significant in 17.4%), whereas 43.3% exhibited an increase (significant in 10.4%). The results show that climatic changes affect offspring production through compounded effects on ecological and life history traits of species. Migratory and larger-bodied species experienced reduced offspring production with increasing temperatures during the chick-rearing period, whereas smaller-bodied, sedentary species tended to produce more offspring. Likewise, multi-brooded species showed increased breeding success with increasing temperatures, whereas rising temperatures were unrelated to reproductive success in single-brooded species. Our study suggests that rapid declines in size of bird populations reported by many studies from different parts of the world are driven only to a small degree by changes in the production of young., This meta-analysis was financed by the grant of the Polish National Science Centre (Narodowe Centrum Nauki) (no. 2017/27/B/NZ8/00465) awarded to Lucyna Hałupka.

Age-related variation in reproductive performance is central for the understanding of population dynamics and evolutionary processes. Our understanding of age trajectories in vital rates has long been limited by the lack of distinction between patterns occurring within- and among-individuals, and by the lack of comparative studies of age trajectories among traits. Thus, it is poorly understood how sets of demographic traits change within individuals according to their age. Based on 40 years of monitoring, we investigated age-related variation in five reproductive traits in female pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca) including laying date, clutch size, brood size, nest success (probability that a nest produces at least one chick) and egg success of successful nests (proportion of eggs resulting in a chick). We disentangled within- from among-individual processes and assessed the relative contribution of within-individual age-specific changes and selective appearance and disappearance. Finally, we compared the aging pattern among these five reproductive traits. We found strong evidence for age-specific performance including both early-life improvement and late-life decline in all reproductive traits but the egg success. Furthermore, the aging patterns varied substantially among reproductive traits both for the age of peak performance and for the rates of early-life improvement and late-life decline. The results show that age trajectories observed at the population level (cross-sectional analysis) may substantially differ from those occurring at the individual level and illustrate the complexity of variation in aging patterns across traits. Supplementary Information The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s00442-021-04963-2.

When climatic conditions change and become outside the range experienced in the past, species may show life-history innovations allowing them to adapt in new ways. We report such an innovation for pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca. Decades of breeding biological studies on pied flycatchers have rarely reported multiple breeding in this long-distance migrant. In two populations, we found 12 recent incidents of females with second broods, all produced by extremely early laying females in warm springs. As such early first broods are a recent phenomenon, because laying dates have gradually advanced over time, this innovation now allows individual females to enhance their reproductive success considerably. If laying dates continue advancing, potentially more females may become multiple breeders and selection for early (and multiple) breeding phenotypes increases, which may accelerate adaptation to climatic change.

In several colour polymorphic species, morphs differ in thermoregulation either because dark and pale surfaces absorb solar radiation to a different extent and/or because morphs differ in key metabolic processes. Morph-specific thermoregulation may potentially account for the observation that differently coloured individuals are frequently not randomly distributed among habitats, and differ in many respects, including behaviour, morphology, survival and reproductive success. In a wild population of the colour polymorphic tawny owl Strix aluco, a recent cross-fostering experiment showed that offspring raised and born from red mothers were heavier than those from grey mothers. In the present study, we tested in the same individuals whether these morph-specific offspring growth patterns were associated with a difference in metabolic rate between offspring of red and grey mothers. For this purpose, we measured nestling oxygen consumption under two different temperatures (laboratory measurements: 4 and 20 degrees C), and examined the relationships between these data sets and the colour morph of foster and biological mothers. After controlling for nestling body mass, oxygen consumption at 20 degrees C was greater in foster offspring raised by grey foster mothers. No relationship was found between nestling oxygen consumption and coloration of their biological mother. Therefore, our study indicates that in our experiment offspring raised by grey foster mothers showed not only a lower body mass than offspring raised by red foster mothers, but also consumed more oxygen under warm temperature. This further indicates that rearing conditions in nests of grey mothers were more stressful than in nests of red mothers.

Local environmental and ecological conditions are commonly expected to result in local adaptation, although there are few examples of variation in phenotypic selection across continent-wide spatial scales. We collected standardized data on selection with respect to the highly variable plumage coloration of pied flycatcher (Ficedula hypoleucaPall.) males from 17 populations across the species' breeding range. The observed selection on multiple male coloration traits via the annual number of fledged young was generally relatively weak. The main aim of the present study, however, was to examine whether the current directional selection estimates are associated with distance to the sympatric area with the collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollisTemminck), a sister species with which the pied flycatcher is showing character displacement. This pattern was expected because plumage traits in male pied flycatchers are changing with the distance to these areas of sympatry. However, we did not find such a pattern in current selection on coloration. There were no associations between current directional selection on ornamentation and latitude or longitude either. Interestingly, current selection on coloration traits was not associated with the observed mean plumage traits of the populations. Thus, there do not appear to be geographical gradients in current directional fecundity selection on male plumage ornamentation. The results of the present study do not support the idea that constant patterns in directional fecundity selection would play a major role in the maintenance of coloration among populations in this species. By contrast, the tendency for relatively weak mosaic-like variation in selection among populations could reflect just a snapshot of temporally variable, potentially environment-dependent, selection, as suggested by other studies in this system. Such fine-grained variable selection coupled with gene flow could maintain extensive phenotypic variation across populations.(c) 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 114, 808-827.

Advances in the phenology of organisms are often attributed to climate change, but alternatively, may reflect a publication bias towards advances and may be caused by environmental factors unrelated to climate change. Both factors are investigated using the breeding dates of 25 long-term studied populations of Ficedula flycatchers across Europe. Trends in spring temperature varied markedly between study sites, and across populations the advancement of laying date was stronger in areas where the spring temperatures increased more, giving support to the theory that climate change causally affects breeding date advancement.

Variation in coloration with a strong underlying genetic basis is frequently found in birds, insects, anurans, molluscs and plants. Although such a variation can be large, little is known about its functional value. Correlative data, however, can help suggest testable hypotheses about potential covariation between reproductive parameters and a colour polymorphism displayed by individuals belonging to a single population. In this context, we studied two Swiss populations of tawny owls Strix aluco, a polymorphic species that varies in coloration from reddish-brown to grey. Observations in the first population showed that although greyer females had shorter tarsi, they produced heavier offspring in two of three years. Pairing with respect to plumage coloration was not significantly disassortative, indicating that these correlations were probably not inflated by plumage coloration of the mate. In the second population, where breeding females had been monitored for 14 years, the proportion of all breeding females that were reddish-brown was greater in years when the breeding density was lower. Capture-recapture analyses show that the latter result is explained by the fact that greyish females bred less often than reddish-brown females, although their survival probability was similar. The number of greyer breeding females was greater when spring/summer temperatures were lower. When combined, the results from the two populations lend support to the hypothesis that grey females do not breed every year, but produce offspring of higher quality. Whatever the mechanism underlying the correlations reported in this study, colour polymorphism in female tawny owls appears to reflect some components of individual quality.

Geographic variation in phenotypes plays a key role in fundamental evolutionary processes such as local adaptation, population differentiation and speciation, but the selective forces behind it are rarely known. We found support for the hypothesis that geographic variation in plumage traits of the pied flycatcher Ficedula hypoleuca is explained by character displacement with the collared flycatcher Ficedula albicollis in the contact zone. The plumage traits of the pied flycatcher differed strongly from the more conspicuous collared flycatcher in a sympatric area but increased in conspicuousness with increasing distance to there. Phenotypic differentiation (PST) was higher than that in neutral genetic markers (FST), and the effect of geographic distance remained when statistically controlling for neutral genetic differentiation. This suggests that a cline created by character displacement and gene flow explains phenotypic variation across the distribution of this species. The different plumage traits of the pied flycatcher are strongly to moderately correlated, indicating that they evolve non-independently from each other. The flycatchers provide an example of plumage patterns diverging in two species that differ in several aspects of appearance. The divergence in sympatry and convergence in allopatry in these birds provide a possibility to study the evolutionary mechanisms behind the highly divergent avian plumage patterns.