Search

We examined 454,712 exomes for genes associated with a wide spectrum of complex traits and common diseases and observed that rare, penetrant mutations in genes implicated by genome-wide association studies confer ∼10-fold larger effects than common variants in the same genes. Consequently, an individual at the phenotypic extreme and at the greatest risk for severe, early-onset disease is better identified by a few rare penetrant variants than by the collective action of many common variants with weak effects. By combining rare variants across phenotype-associated genes into a unified genetic risk model, we demonstrate superior portability across diverse global populations compared to common variant polygenic risk scores, greatly improving the clinical utility of genetic-based risk prediction.One sentence summaryRare variant polygenic risk scores identify individuals with outlier phenotypes in common human diseases and complex traits.

Analyses of data from genome-wide association studies on unrelated individuals have shown that, for human traits and diseases, approximately one-third to two-thirds of heritability is captured by common SNPs. However, it is not known whether the remaining heritability is due to the imperfect tagging of causal variants by common SNPs, in particular whether the causal variants are rare, or whether it is overestimated due to bias in inference from pedigree data. Here we estimated heritability for height and body mass index (BMI) from whole-genome sequence data on 25,465 unrelated individuals of European ancestry. The estimated heritability was 0.68 (standard error 0.10) for height and 0.30 (standard error 0.10) for body mass index. Low minor allele frequency variants in low linkage disequilibrium (LD) with neighboring variants were enriched for heritability, to a greater extent for protein-altering variants, consistent with negative selection. Our results imply that rare variants, in particular those in regions of low linkage disequilibrium, are a major source of the still missing heritability of complex traits and disease.

Heritability, the proportion of phenotypic variance explained by genetic factors, can be estimated from pedigree data 1, but such estimates are uninformative with respect to the underlying genetic architecture. Analyses of data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on unrelated individuals have shown that for human traits and disease, approximately one-third to two-thirds of heritability is captured by common SNPs 2–5. It is not known whether the remaining heritability is due to the imperfect tagging of causal variants by common SNPs, in particular if the causal variants are rare, or other reasons such as overestimation of heritability from pedigree data. Here we show that pedigree heritability for height and body mass index (BMI) appears to be largely recovered from whole-genome sequence (WGS) data on 25,465 unrelated individuals of European ancestry. We assigned 33.7 million genetic variants to groups based upon their minor allele frequencies (MAF) and linkage disequilibrium (LD) with variants nearby, and estimated and partitioned genetic variance accordingly. The estimated heritability was 0.68 (SE 0.10) for height and 0.30 (SE 0.10) for BMI, with a range of ~0.60 – 0.71 for height and ~0.25 – 0.35 for BMI, depending on quality control and analysis strategies. Low-MAF variants in low LD with neighbouring variants were enriched for heritability, to a greater extent for protein-altering variants, consistent with negative selection thereon. Cumulatively variants with 0.0001 < MAF < 0.1 explained 0.47 (SE 0.07) and 0.30 (SE 0.10) of heritability for height and BMI, respectively. Our results imply that rare variants, in particular those in regions of low LD, is a major source of the still missing heritability of complex traits and disease.