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Abstract Background Forced migration leaves deep marks on the psychological well-being of migrants, with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) and other psychological conditions being prevalent among them. While research has clarified the extent to which pre-migration trauma is a predictor of mental health outcomes, the role of post-migration stressors in the settlement environment are yet to be fully characterized. Methods We monitored mental health of a cohort of 100 asylum-seekers during their 14-day COVID-19-related quarantine in reception facilities in Rome, Italy, through the administration of six questionnaires (a demographic survey, the WHO-5 well-being index, the Primary Care PTSD Screen for Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders 5 (DSM-5), the Harvard Trauma Questionnaire, the Trauma and Loss Spectrum—Self Report, and the LiMEs—Italian version). Through the combination of statistical analysis and supervised learning, we studied the impact of the first contact with the reception system on asylum-seekers’ mental health and sought for possible risk and shielding factors for PTSD. Results We find that sheltering in refugee centers has a positive impact on migrants’ mental health; asylum-seekers with PTSD reported more traumatic events and personality characteristics related to loss and trauma; life events are predictors of PTSD in asylum-seekers. Conclusions We identify past traumatic experiences as predictors of PTSD, and establish the positive role the immediate post-migration environment can play on migrants’ psychological well-being. We recommend for host countries to implement reception models that provide effective protection and integration of asylum-seekers, similar to those in the Italian system.

Abstract Uncovering the mechanisms underlying the diffusion of vaccine hesitancy is crucial in fighting epidemic spreading. Toward this ambitious goal, we treat vaccine hesitancy as an opinion, whose diffusion in a social group can be shaped over time by the influence of personal beliefs, social pressure, and other exogenous actions, such as pro-vaccine campaigns. We propose a simple mathematical model that, calibrated on survey data, can predict the modification of the pre-existing individual willingness to be vaccinated and estimate the fraction of a population that is expected to adhere to an immunization program. This work paves the way for enabling tools from network control towards the simulation of different intervention plans and the design of more effective targeted pro-vaccine campaigns. Compared to traditional mass media alternatives, these model-based campaigns can exploit the structural properties of social networks to provide a potentially pivotal advantage in epidemic mitigation.

Inferring the number of interacting components in a complex, noisy, possibly non-equilibrium, system is of interest to various fields of science. Here, the authors present a method to extract the size of an ensemble of self-propelled Vicsek particles starting from the motion of a single unit by exploiting the analogy with the classical kinetic theory of gases.

Abstract Synchronization of human networks is fundamental in many aspects of human endeavour. Recently, much research effort has been spent on analyzing how motor coordination emerges in human groups (from rocking chairs to violin players) and how it is affected by coupling structure and strength. Here we uncover the spontaneous emergence of leadership (based on physical signaling during group interaction) as a crucial factor steering the occurrence of synchronization in complex human networks where individuals perform a joint motor task. In two experiments engaging participants in an arm movement synchronization task, in the physical world as well as in the digital world, we found that specific patterns of leadership emerged and increased synchronization performance. Precisely, three patterns were found, involving a subtle interaction between phase of the motion and amount of influence. Such patterns were independent of the presence or absence of physical interaction, and persisted across manipulated spatial configurations. Our results shed light on the mechanisms that drive coordination and leadership in human groups, and are consequential for the design of interactions with artificial agents, avatars or robots, where social roles can be determinant for a successful interaction.

Abstract Recently, it has been suggested that network temporality can be exploited to substantially reduce the energy required to control complex networks. This somewhat counterintuitive finding was explained through an evocative example of the advantage of temporal networks: when navigating a sailboat, we raise the sails when the wind helps us while lowering them when it works against us. Unfortunately, controlling complex networks inherits a further analogy with navigating a sailboat: having to face the inherent uncertainty of future winds. We rarely, if ever, have deterministic knowledge of the evolution of the network we want to control. Here, our challenge is to exploit the potential advantages of temporality when only a probabilistic description of the future is available. We prove that, in this more realistic setting, exploiting temporality is no more a panacea for network control, but rather an asset of a wider toolbox made available by the scientific community. One that can indeed turn out useful, provided that the temporality of the network structure matches the intrinsic time scales of the nodes we want to control.

Abstract Humans interact in groups through various perception and action channels. The continuity of interaction despite a transient loss of perceptual contact often exists and contributes to goal achievement. Here, we study the dynamics of this continuity, in two experiments involving groups of participants ( $$N=7$$ N = 7 ) synchronizing their movements in space and in time. We show that behavioural unison can be maintained after perceptual contact has been lost, for about 7s. Agent similarity and spatial configuration in the group modulated synchronization performance, differently so when perceptual interaction was present or when it was memorized. Modelling these data through a network of oscillators enabled us to clarify the double origin of this memory effect, of individual and social nature. These results shed new light into why humans continue to move in unison after perceptual interruption, and are consequential for a wide variety of applications at work, in art and in sport.

An ongoing global debate concerns effective and sustainable lockdown release strategies in the current pandemic. Here, the authors implement a network model at healthcare-relevant spatial scale to show that coordinated local strategies can be effective in containing further resurgence of the disease.

In human groups performing oscillatory tasks, it has been observed that the frequency of participants' oscillations reduces when compared to that acquired in solo. This experimental observation is not captured by the standard Kuramoto oscillators, often employed to model human synchronization. In this work, we aim at capturing this observed phenomenon by proposing three alternative modifications of the standard Kuramoto model that are based on three different biologically-relevant hypotheses underlying group synchronization. The three models are tuned, validated and compared against experiments on a group synchronization task, which is a multi-agent extension of the so-called mirror game.

Abstract Sea level rise (SLR) could have catastrophic consequences worldwide. More than 600 million people currently living in coastal areas may see their livelihood at risk and choose to migrate in the near future. Predicting when, how, and where people could migrate under environmental change is critical to devise effective policy initiatives and improve our preparedness. Here, we propose a modeling framework to predict the effect of SLR on migration patterns from easily accessible geographic and demographic data. The framework adapts the radiation model to capture unwillingness or inability to migrate of affected residents, as well as return migration and cascading effects in migration patterns. We apply the mathematical model to study internal migration in Bangladesh, where we predict a complex and counterintuitive landscape of migration patterns between districts. Our predictions indicate that the impact of SLR on 816,000 people by 2050 will trigger cascading effects in migration patterns throughout the entire country. The population of each of the 64 districts will change, leading to a total variation of 1.3 million people. Migration from inundated regions in the center will trigger non‐trivial patterns, including a reduction in the population of the district of the capital Dhaka.

Pairwise interactions are critical to collective dynamics of natural and technological systems. Information theory is the gold standard to study these interactions, but recent work has identified pitfalls in the way information flow is appraised through classical metrics—time-delayed mutual information and transfer entropy. These pitfalls have prompted the introduction of intrinsic mutual information to precisely measure information flow. However, little is known regarding the potential use of intrinsic mutual information in the inference of directional influences to diagnose interactions from time-series of individual units. We explore this possibility within a minimalistic, mathematically tractable leader–follower model, for which we document an excess of false inferences of intrinsic mutual information compared to transfer entropy. This unexpected finding is linked to a fundamental limitation of intrinsic mutual information, which suffers from the same sins of time-delayed mutual information: a thin tail of the null distribution that favors the rejection of the null-hypothesis of independence.

Public participation in scientific activities, often called citizen science, offers a possibility to collect and analyze an unprecedentedly large amount of data. However, diversity of volunteers poses a challenge to obtain accurate information when these data are aggregated. To overcome this problem, we propose a classification algorithm using Bayesian inference that harnesses diversity of volunteers to improve data accuracy. In the algorithm, each volunteer is grouped into a distinct class based on a survey regarding either their level of education or motivation to citizen science. We obtained the behavior of each class through a training set, which was then used as a prior information to estimate performance of new volunteers. By applying this approach to an existing citizen science dataset to classify images into categories, we demonstrate improvement in data accuracy, compared to the traditional majority voting. Our algorithm offers a simple, yet powerful, way to improve data accuracy under limited effort of volunteers by predicting the behavior of a class of individuals, rather than attempting at a granular description of each of them.