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Small commercial buildings in the United States consume 47% of the total primary energy of the buildings sector. Retrofitting small and medium commercial buildings poses a huge challenge for owners because they usually lack the expertise and resources to identify and evaluate cost-effective energy retrofit strategies. This paper presents the Commercial Building Energy Saver (CBES), an energy retrofit analysis toolkit, which calculates the energy use of a building, identifies and evaluates retrofit measures in terms of energy savings, energy cost savings and payback. The CBES Toolkit includes a web app (APP) for end users and the CBES Application Programming Interface (API) for integrating CBES with other energy software tools. The toolkit provides a rich set of features including: (1) Energy Benchmarking providing an Energy Star score, (2) Load Shape Analysis to identify potential building operation improvements, (3) Preliminary Retrofit Analysis which uses a custom developed pre-simulated database and, (4) Detailed Retrofit Analysis which utilizes real-time EnergyPlus simulations. CBES includes 100 configurable energy conservation measures (ECMs) that encompass IAQ, technical performance and cost data, for assessing 7 different prototype buildings in 16 climate zones in California and 6 vintages. A case study of a small office building demonstrates the use of the toolkit for retrofit analysis. The development of CBES provides a new contribution to the field by providing a straightforward and uncomplicated decision making process for small and medium business owners, leveraging different levels of assessment dependent upon user background, preference and data availability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Policymakers are encouraging the development of standardized and consistent methods to quantify the electric load impacts of demand response programs. For load impacts, an essential part of the analysis is the estimation of the baseline load profile. In this paper, we present a statistical evaluation of the performance of several different models used to calculate baselines for commercial buildings participating in a demand response program in California. In our approach, we use the model to estimate baseline loads for a large set of proxy event days for which the actual load data are also available. Measures of the accuracy and bias of different models, the importance of weather effects, and the effect of applying morning adjustment factors (which use data from the day of the event to adjust the estimated baseline) are presented. Our results suggest that (1) the accuracy of baseline load models can be improved substantially by applying a morning adjustment, (2) the characterization of building loads by variability and weather sensitivity is a useful indicator of which types of baseline models will perform well, and (3) models that incorporate temperature either improve the accuracy of the model fit or do not change it. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

This paper optimizes opening positions on building facades to maximize the natural ventilation's potential for ventilation and cooling purposes. The paper demonstrates how to apply computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulation results to architectural design processes, and how the CFD-driven decisions impact ventilation and cooling: (1) background: A CFD helps predict the natural ventilation's potential, the integration of CFD results into design decision-making has not been actively practiced; (2) methods: Pressure data on building facades were obtained from CFD simulations and mapped into the 3D modeling environment, which were then used to identify optimal positions of two openings of a zone. The effect of the selected opening positions was validated with building energy simulations; (3) results: The cross-comparison study of different window positions based on different geographical locations quantified the impact on natural ventilation effectiveness; and (4) conclusions: The optimized window position was shown to be effective, and some optimal solutions contradicted the typical cross-ventilation strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predictive control has gained increasing attention for its ability to reduce energy consumption and improve occupant comfort in buildings. The plug loads prediction is a key component for the predictive building controls, as plug loads is a major source of internal heat gains in buildings. This study proposed a novel method to apply the Long-Short-Term-Memory (LSTM) Network, a special form of Recurrent Neural Network, to predict plug loads. The occupant count and the time have been confirmed to drive the plug load profile and thus selected as the features for the plug load prediction. The LSTM network was trained and tested with ground truth occupant count data collected from a real office building in Berkeley, California. Results from the LSTM network markedly improve the prediction accuracy compared with traditional linear regression methods and the classical Artificial Neural Network. 95% of 1-h predictions from LSTM network are within ±1 kW of the actual plug loads, given the average plug loads during the office hour is 8.6 kW. The CV(RMSE) of the predicted plug load is 11% for the next hour, and 20% for the next 8 h. Lastly, we compared four prediction approaches with the office building we monitored: LSTM vs. ARIMA, with occupant counts vs. without occupant counts. It was found, the prediction error of the LSTM approach is around 4% less than the ARIMA approach. Using occupant counts as an exogenous input could further reduce the prediction error by 5%–6%. The findings of this paper could shed light on the plug load prediction for building control optimizations such as model-predictive control. • Accurate plug loads prediction is key to Model Predictive Control in buildings. • LSTM (Long Short Tem Memory) network is used to predict plug loads using occupant count data. • The prediction accuracy is 89% for the next hour, and 80% for the next 8 h. • LSTM is computational demanding but 4% more accurate than ARIMA. • Using occupant counts could reduce plug load prediction error by 5%–6%. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Internal heat gain prediction is important in energy efficient building operation. • Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) Networks, was applied to predict building internal load. • Compared with ASHRAE fixed schedules, LSTMs could reduce prediction errors by 40%. • MELs was found to be the most important feature for internal heat gain prediction. • The findings facilitate accurate load prediction for building predictive control. Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) is a major energy consumer in buildings. The predictive control has demonstrated a potential to reduce HVAC energy use. To facilitate predictive HVAC control, internal heat gains prediction is required. In this study, we applied Long Short-Term Memory Networks, a special form of deep neural network, to predict miscellaneous electric loads, lighting loads, occupant counts and internal heat gains in two United States office buildings. Compared with the predetermined schedules used in American Society of Heating, Refrigerating and Air-Conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE) standard 90.1, the Long Short-Term Memory Networks method could reduce the prediction errors of internal heat gains from 12% to 8% in Building A, and from 26% to 16% in Building B. It was also found that for internal heat gains prediction, miscellaneous electric loads is a more important feature than occupant counts for two reasons. First, miscellaneous electric loads is the best proxy variable for internal heat gains, as it is the major component of and has the highest correlation coefficient with the internal heat gains. Second, miscellaneous electric loads contain valuable information to predict occupant count, while occupant count could not help improve miscellaneous electric loads prediction. These findings could help researchers and practitioners select the most relevant features to more accurately predict internal heat gains for the implementation of predictive HVAC control in buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Buildings in cities consume 30–70% of total primary energy, and improving building energy efficiency is one of the key strategies towards sustainable urbanization. Urban building energy models (UBEM) can support city managers to evaluate and prioritize energy conservation measures (ECMs) for investment and the design of incentive and rebate programs. This paper presents the retrofit analysis feature of City Building Energy Saver (CityBES) to automatically generate and simulate UBEM using EnergyPlus based on cities’ building datasets and user-selected ECMs. CityBES is a new open web-based tool to support city-scale building energy efficiency strategic plans and programs. The technical details of using CityBES for UBEM generation and simulation are introduced, including the workflow, key assumptions, and major databases. Also presented is a case study that analyzes the potential retrofit energy use and energy cost savings of five individual ECMs and two measure packages for 940 office and retail buildings in six city districts in northeast San Francisco, United States. The results show that: (1) all five measures together can save 23–38% of site energy per building; (2) replacing lighting with light-emitting diode lamps and adding air economizers to existing heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems are most cost-effective with an average payback of 2.0 and 4.3 years, respectively; and (3) it is not economical to upgrade HVAC systems or replace windows in San Francisco due to the city’s mild climate and minimal cooling and heating loads. The CityBES retrofit analysis feature does not require users to have deep knowledge of building systems or technologies for the generation and simulation of building energy models, which helps overcome major technical barriers for city managers and their consultants to adopt UBEM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes a step-by-step procedure for using measured end-use energy data from a campus building to calibrate a simulation model developed in EnergyPlus. This process included identification of key input parameters for reducing uncertainties in the model. Building thermal zones were modeled to match the actual heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) zoning for each individual variable air-volume (VAV) zone. We evaluated most key building and HVAC system components, including space loads (actual occupancy number, lighting and plug loads), HVAC air-side components (VAV terminals, supply and return fans) and water-side components (chillers, pumps, and cooling towers). Comparison of the pre- and post-calibration model shows that the calibration process greatly improves the model's accuracy for each end use. We propose an automated model calibration procedure that links the model to a real-time data monitoring system, allowing the model to be updated any time. The approach enables the automated data feed from simple measuring and actuation profile (sMAP) into the EnergyPlus model to create realistic schedules of space loads (occupancy, lighting and plug), performance curves of fans, chillers and cooling towers. We also field-tested demand response (DR) control strategies to evaluate the model's performance in predicting dynamic response effects. Finally, this paper describes application of the calibrated model to analyze control systems and DR strategies with the goal of reducing peak demand. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small and medium-sized commercial buildings can be retrofitted to significantly reduce their energy use, however it is a huge challenge as owners usually lack of the expertise and resources to conduct detailed on-site energy audit to identify and evaluate cost-effective energy technologies. This study presents a DEEP (database of energy efficiency performance) that provides a direct resource for quick retrofit analysis of commercial buildings. DEEP, compiled from the results of about ten million EnergyPlus simulations, enables an easy screening of ECMs (energy conservation measures) and retrofit analysis. The simulations utilize prototype models representative of small and mid-size offices and retails in California climates. In the formulation of DEEP, large scale EnergyPlus simulations were conducted on high performance computing clusters to evaluate hundreds of individual and packaged ECMs covering envelope, lighting, heating, ventilation, air-conditioning, plug-loads, and service hot water. The architecture and simulation environment to create DEEP is flexible and can expand to cover additional building types, additional climates, and new ECMs. In this study DEEP is integrated into a web-based retrofit toolkit, the Commercial Building Energy Saver, which provides a platform for energy retrofit decision making by querying DEEP and unearthing recommended ECMs, their estimated energy savings and financial payback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retrofit analysis toolkits can be used to optimize energy or cost savings from retrofit strategies, accelerating the adoption of ECMs (energy conservation measures) in buildings. This paper provides an up-to-date review of the features and capabilities of 18 energy retrofit toolkits, including ECMs and the calculation engines. The fidelity of the calculation techniques, a driving component of retrofit toolkits, were evaluated. An evaluation of the issues that hinder effective retrofit analysis in terms of accessibility, usability, data requirement, and the application of efficiency measures, provides valuable insights into advancing the field forward. Following this review the general concepts were determined: (1) toolkits developed primarily in the private sector use empirically data-driven methods or benchmarking to provide ease of use, (2) almost all of the toolkits which used EnergyPlus or DOE-2 were freely accessible, but suffered from complexity, longer data input and simulation run time, (3) in general, there appeared to be a fine line between having too much detail resulting in a long analysis time or too little detail which sacrificed modeling fidelity. These insights provide an opportunity to enhance the design and development of existing and new retrofit toolkits in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: This paper discusses how to optimize pre-cooling strategies for buildings in a hot California climate zone with the Demand Response Quick Assessment Tool (DRQAT), a building energy simulation tool. This paper outlines the procedure used to develop and calibrate DRQAT simulation models, and applies this procedure to eleven field test buildings. The results of a comparison between the measured demand savings during the peak period and the savings predicted by the simulation model indicate that the predicted demand shed match well with measured data for the corresponding auto-demand response (Auto-DR) days. The study shows that the accuracy of the simulation models is greatly improved after calibrating the initial models with measured data. These improved models can be used to predict load reductions for automated demand response events. The simulation results were compared with field test data to confirm the actual effect of demand response strategies. Results indicate that the optimal demand response strategies worked well for most of the buildings tested in this hot climate zone. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

• Building load prediction informs chiller plant and thermal storage optimization. • We used and compared 9 machine learning algorithms and 3 heuristic prediction methods. • XGBoost and LSTM are found to be the best shallow and deep learning algorithm. • LSTM is better for short term prediction, while XGBoost for long term prediction. • It is better to train the model with uncertain rather than accurate weather data. Building thermal load prediction informs the optimization of cooling plant and thermal energy storage. Physics-based prediction models of building thermal load are constrained by the model and input complexity. In this study, we developed 12 data-driven models (7 shallow learning, 2 deep learning, and 3 heuristic methods) to predict building thermal load and compared shallow machine learning and deep learning. The 12 prediction models were compared with the measured cooling demand. It was found XGBoost (Extreme Gradient Boost) and LSTM (Long Short Term Memory) provided the most accurate load prediction in the shallow and deep learning category, and both outperformed the best baseline model, which uses the previous day's data for prediction. Then, we discussed how the prediction horizon and input uncertainty would influence the load prediction accuracy. Major conclusions are twofold: first, LSTM performs well in short-term prediction (1 h ahead) but not in long term prediction (24 h ahead), because the sequential information becomes less relevant and accordingly not so useful when the prediction horizon is long. Second, the presence of weather forecast uncertainty deteriorates XGBoost's accuracy and favors LSTM, because the sequential information makes the model more robust to input uncertainty. Training the model with the uncertain rather than accurate weather data could enhance the model's robustness. Our findings have two implications for practice. First, LSTM is recommended for short-term load prediction given that weather forecast uncertainty is unavoidable. Second, XGBoost is recommended for long term prediction, and the model should be trained with the presence of input uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Energy Management and Information Systems are a family of analytics technologies that include energy information systems, fault detection and diagnostics (FDD), and automated system optimization tools. Such systems have the potential to enable buildings to meet energy management goals of reducing total energy consumption and cost. Most current market offerings use data-driven and rule-based analytics. However, the use of physics-based models in the analytics offers potential improvements by providing an accurate estimation of outputs based on representation of the physical principles governing the building system behaviors. This also permits the use of design stage models to inform commissioning and operation. This paper describes the development and testing of a hybrid data-driven and physics model-based operational tool for energy efficiency in central cooling plants. The tool offers FDD functionality, setpoint optimization, and visualization of key performance parameters. It was demonstrated at a university campus in the mixed-humid ASHRAE Climate Zone 4A. Key performance metrics that were analyzed include plant electricity use reduction, plant model calibration, and system economics. Annual simulations indicate the tool can provide electricity savings of greater than 10% for approximately six months of the year, mainly during the winter season when wet bulb temperatures are low, though only 1.38% savings for the entire year. Additionally, over a 4-day period in April, recommended optimal setpoints were implemented, resulting in 17% savings versus metered baseline consumption. With respect to model calibration, the difference between model-predicted and measured parameters was less than 10% for 90% of data points acquired for three of six chillers, and for each ten cooling towers. Finally, the tool users reported that satisfaction with the capabilities was equal to or better than that with the preexisting BAS system. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building retrofits provide a large opportunity to significantly reduce energy consumption in the buildings sector. Traditional building retrofits focus on equipment upgrades, often at the end of equipment life or failure, and result in replacement with marginally improved similar technology and limited energy savings. The Integrated System (IS) retrofit approach enables much greater energy savings by leveraging interactive effects between end use systems, enabling downsized or lower energy technologies. This paper presents a case study in Hawaii quantifying the benefits of an IS retrofit approach compared to two traditional retrofit approaches: a Standard Practice of upgrading equipment to meet minimum code requirements, and an Improved Practice of upgrading equipment to a higher efficiency. The IS approach showed an energy savings of 84% over existing building energy use, much higher than the traditional approaches of 13% and 33%. The IS retrofit also demonstrated the greatest energy cost savings potential. While the degree of savings realized from the IS approach will vary by building and climate, these findings indicate that savings on the order of 50% and greater are not possible without an IS approach. It is therefore recommended that the IS approach be universally adopted to achieve deep energy savings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Small- and medium-sized commercial buildings owners and utility managers often look for opportunities for energy cost savings through energy efficiency and energy waste minimization. However, they currently lack easy access to low-cost tools that help interpret the massive amount of data needed to improve understanding of their energy use behaviors. Benchmarking is one of the techniques used in energy audits to identify which buildings are priorities for an energy analysis. Traditional energy performance indicators, such as the energy use intensity (annual energy per unit of floor area), consider only the total annual energy consumption, lacking consideration of the fluctuation of energy use behavior over time, which reveals the time of use information and represents distinct energy use behaviors during different time spans. To fill the gap, this study developed a general statistical method using 24-h electric load shape benchmarking to compare a building or business/tenant space against peers. Specifically, the study developed new forms of benchmarking metrics and data analysis methods to infer the energy performance of a building based on its load shape. We first performed a data experiment with collected smart meter data using over 2000 small- and medium-sized businesses in California. We then conducted a cluster analysis of the source data, and determined and interpreted the load shape features and parameters with peer group analysis. Finally, we implemented the load shape benchmarking feature in an open-access web-based toolkit (the Commercial Building Energy Saver) to provide straightforward and practical recommendations to users. The analysis techniques were generic and flexible for future datasets of other building types and in other utility territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Thermal energy storage (TES) for a cooling plant is a crucial resource for load flexibility. Traditionally, simple, heuristic control approaches, such as the storage priority control which charges TES during the nighttime and discharges during the daytime, have been widely used in practice, and shown reasonable performance in the past benefiting both the grid and the end-users such as buildings and district energy systems. However, the increasing penetration of renewables changes the situation, exposing the grid to a growing duck curve, which encourages the consumption of more energy in the daytime, and volatile renewable generation which requires dynamic planning. The growing pressure of diminishing greenhouse gas emissions also increases the complexity of cooling TES plant operations as different control strategies may apply to optimize operations for energy cost or carbon emissions. This paper presents a model predictive control (MPC), site demonstration and evaluation results of optimal operation of a chiller plant, TES and behind-meter photovoltaics for a campus-level district cooling system. The MPC was formulated as a mixed-integer linear program for better numerical and control properties. Compared with baseline rule-based controls, the MPC results show reductions of the excess PV power by around 25%, of the greenhouse gas emission by 10%, and of peak electricity demand by 10%. • Experimentally demonstrated an MPC for a campus-scale cooling plant system. • Present MPC's real performance for renewable integration and decarbonization. • First MPC demonstration in response to a real time grid carbon signal. • Achieved reductions of the excess PV power by 25%, and of the CO2 emission by 10% • Share lessons-learned during the demonstration to facilitate MPC deployment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building model calibration is critical in bringing simulated energy use closer to the actual consumption. This paper presents a novel, automated model calibration approach that uses logic linking parameter tuning with bias pattern recognition to overcome some of the disadvantages associated with traditional calibration processes. The pattern-based process contains four key steps: (1) running the original pre-calibrated energy model to obtain monthly simulated electricity and gas use; (2) establishing a pattern bias, either Universal or Seasonal Bias, by comparing load shape patterns of simulated and actual monthly energy use; (3) using programmed logic to select which parameter to tune first based on bias pattern, weather and input parameter interactions; and (4) automatically tuning the calibration parameters and checking the progress using pattern-fit criteria. The automated calibration algorithm was implemented in the Commercial Building Energy Saver, a web-based building energy retrofit analysis toolkit. The proof of success of the methodology was demonstrated using a case study of an office building located in San Francisco. The case study inputs included the monthly electricity bill, monthly gas bill, original building model and weather data with outputs resulting in a calibrated model that more closely matched that of the actual building energy use profile. The novelty of the developed calibration methodology lies in linking parameter tuning with the underlying logic associated with bias pattern identification. Although there are some limitations to this approach, the pattern-based automated calibration methodology can be universally adopted as an alternative to manual or hierarchical calibration approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Model Predictive Control (MPC) is a promising technique to address growing needs for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems to operate more efficiently and with greater flexibility. However, due to a number of factors, including the required implementation expertise, lack of high quality data, and a risk-adverse industry, MPC has yet to gain widespread adoption. While many previous studies have shown the advantages of MPC, few analyzed the implementation effort and associated practical challenges. In addition, previous work has developed an open-source, Modelica-based tool-chain that automatically generates optimal control, parameter estimation, and state estimation problems aimed at facilitating MPC implementation. Therefore, this study demonstrates usage of this tool-chain to implement MPC in a real office building, discusses practical challenges of implementing MPC, and estimates the implementation effort associated with various tasks in order to inform the development of future workflows and serve as an initial benchmark for their impact on reducing implementation effort. This study finds that the implemented MPC saves approximately 40% of HVAC energy over the existing control during a two-month trial period and that tasks related to data collection and controller deployment activities can each require as much effort as model generation. • MPC saved energy compared to existing control in a real office building HVAC system. • Open-source software was used for the MPC implementation. • Effort for data collection and MPC deployment was comparable to model generation. • Workflows that streamline implementation processes would help reduce effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights: [•] The addition of a new back-smoothing technique enables real-time FDD. [•] Algorithm can detect the occurrence of multiple and simultaneous faults. [•] Noisy and erroneous sensor data do not lead to erroneous FDD solutions. [•] Proposed solution updates fault probabilities in less than 5s. [•] Three common chiller plant faults detected despite significant noise in sensor data. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Although the thermal mass of floors in buildings has been demonstrated to help shift cooling load, there is still a lack of information about how floor covering can influence the floor's load shifting capability and buildings' demand flexibility. To fill this gap, we estimated demand flexibility based on the daily peak cooling load reduction for different floor configurations and regions, using EnergyPlus simulations. As a demand response strategy, we used precooling and global temperature adjustment. The result demonstrated an adverse impact of floor covering on the building's demand flexibility. Specifically, under the same demand response strategy, the daily peak cooling load reductions were up to 20–34% for a concrete floor whereas they were only 17–29% for a carpet-covered concrete floor. This is because floor covering hinders convective coupling between the concrete floor surface and the zone air and reduces radiative heat transfer between the concrete floor surface and the surrounding environment. In hot climates such as Phoenix, floor covering almost negated the concrete floor's load shifting capability and yielded low demand flexibility as a wood floor, representing low thermal mass. Sensitivity analyses showed that floor covering's effects can be more profound with a larger carpet-covered area, a greater temperature adjustment depth, or a higher radiant heat gain. With this effect ignored for a given building, its demand flexibility would be overestimated, which could prevent grid operators from obtaining sufficient demand flexibility to maintain a grid. Our findings also imply that for more efficient grid-interactive buildings, a traditional standard for floor design could be modified with increasing renewable penetration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Energy efficiency (EE) and demand response (DR) resources provide important utility systems and ratepayer benefits. At the same time, the rapid change in the amount and type of variable renewable energy, like solar and wind, is reshaping the role and economic value of EE and DR, and will likely affect the time-dependent valuation of EE and DR measures. Utilities are increasingly interested in integrating EE and DR measures as a strategic approach to improve their collective cost-effectiveness and performance. We develop a framework to identify the EE and DR attributes, system conditions, and technological factors that are likely to drive interactions between EE and DR. We apply the framework to example measures with different technology specifics in the context of different utility system conditions. We find that EE and DR interactions are likely driven by changes in discretionary load, the addition of controls or other capabilities to shift loads, and the coincidence of savings with system peak or load building periods. Our analysis suggests increasing complexity in evaluating EE and DR interactions when moving from standalone equipment to integrated systems. The framework can be applied to research on integrated building systems by grouping measures into portfolios with different likely implications for EE and DR interactions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]