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Many human behavioral and brain imaging studies have used narratively structured stimuli (e.g., written, audio, or audiovisual stories) to better emulate real-world experience in the laboratory. However, narratives are a special class of real-world experience, largely defined by their causal connections across time. Much contemporary neuroscience research does not consider this key property. We review behavioral and neuroscientific work that speaks to how causal structure shapes comprehension of and memory for narratives. We further draw connections between this work and reinforcement learning, highlighting how narratives help link causes to outcomes in complex environments. By incorporating the plausibility of causal connections between classes of actions and outcomes, reinforcement learning models may become more ecologically valid, while simultaneously elucidating the value of narratives.

The present study aimed to investigate whether contextual factors influence how a reference is processed in discourse. We used intact and violated presuppositions (PSP), triggered by a definite or indefinite noun phrase, to monitor the reference process. In one sentence set, a contextual referent was explicitly mentioned close or far from the PSP-triggering noun phrase (memory context). In another sentence set, a referent was not explicitly mentioned in the context, but an inference to a referent was either plausible or implausible due to contextual semantic relations (inference context). Participants were asked to rate the coherence of the discourse after listening to it. Our results revealed a strong influence of the temporal distance of the contextual presentation of a referent. When the referent was far in the context (memory context), PSP violations were judged to be less severe than for close referents, suggesting that they are less clearly represented in memory. Furthermore, PSP violations seemed to play a subordinate role when the semantic context provided a basis for the plausible presence of a referent (inference context). Our results suggest that discourse comprehension involves referential processes whose importance may fade with distance in memory or may be obscured by semantic contextual content. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study aimed to investigate whether contextual factors influence how a reference is processed in discourse. We used intact and violated presuppositions (PSP), triggered by a definite or indefinite noun phrase, to monitor the reference process. In one sentence set, a contextual referent was explicitly mentioned close or far from the PSP-triggering noun phrase (memory context). In another sentence set, a referent was not explicitly mentioned in the context, but an inference to a referent was either plausible or implausible due to contextual semantic relations (inference context). Participants were asked to rate the coherence of the discourse after listening to it. Our results revealed a strong influence of the temporal distance of the contextual presentation of a referent. When the referent was far in the context (memory context), PSP violations were judged to be less severe than for close referents, suggesting that they are less clearly represented in memory. Furthermore, PSP violations seemed to play a subordinate role when the semantic context provided a basis for the plausible presence of a referent (inference context). Our results suggest that discourse comprehension involves referential processes whose importance may fade with distance in memory or may be obscured by semantic contextual content.

We examined the Devil's Advocate lie detection method which is aimed at detecting lying about opinions. In this approach, participants give reasons for why they hold an opinion in the eliciting-opinion question and counter-arguments to their opinion in a devil's advocate question. Truth tellers (n = 55) reported their true opinion about protestor actions, whereas lie tellers (n = 55) reported the opposite of their true opinion. Answers were coded for number of arguments and plausibility, immediacy, clarity and scriptedness. Data were analysed with analyses of variance with veracity being the sole factor. Supporting the hypothesis, truth tellers provided more pro-arguments than lie tellers and to all eliciting-opinion questions their answers sounded more plausible, immediate and clear than lie tellers' answers. The opposite pattern was predicted for the devil's advocate question but not found, likely caused by the simplification of the question. Neither was being scripted a diagnostic veracity indicator. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The rapid advancement of virtual reality (VR) technology has brought many immersive experiences, each designed to transport users into captivating virtual worlds. While these experiences aim to provide a sense of presence and engagement, the factors contributing to a truly immersive experience are often complex and multifaceted. Existing scholarship has predominantly focused on specific aspects of user experience, such as psychological factors (e.g., sense of presence), emotional factors (e.g., enjoyment), or design-related factors (e.g., interface usability). This fragmented approach has impeded a comprehensive understanding of the overall quality of VR experiences. To address this, we propose a multidimensional taxonomy encompassing five essential qualities: immersivity, interactivity, explorability, plausibility, and believability. The framework aims to disentangle the complex, interrelated facets shaping VR experiences for a more systematic evaluation. Immersivity refers to the subjective sense of presence and "being there" in a virtual environment. Interactivity denotes the ability to interact with virtual objects, promoting engagement dynamically. Explorability refers to users' freedom to navigate and discover new elements. Plausibility examines the logical congruence of the virtual environment's rules and behaviors. Finally, believability relates to the world-building and internal coherence of the VR world. This taxonomy provides a structured approach to look at VR experiences holistically, assessing the interplay of these facets to facilitate a more objective, comprehensive evaluation, capturing the multidimensional nature of VR experiences. In summary, our proposed taxonomy marks an essential step toward systematic VR evaluation, providing guidance for researchers and highlighting factors integral to VR quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to previous research, humans are exceptionally skilled at distinguishing earth-congruent object trajectories from earth-discrepant ones. Inconsistent scale cues in Virtual Reality (VR), however, are shown to easily confuse VR users' scale, size, and distance estimations. This paper describes the results of two studies, with 40 participants each, which tested the effects of self-scaling, and size cues from active virtual characters, on perceived physics coherence (i.e., subjective realism). In the first study (Study A), a humanoid robot the size of a doll manipulated household objects to demonstrate their rigid body dynamics. The demonstration sequence was performed twice, once using a correct approximation of physics, and once using an incorrect one in which gravity was simulated similarly to as if the doll-sized robot was human-sized and the surrounding room was enlarged. The participants observed both demonstrations, once while standing at the normal scale and once at a reduced scale, similar to that of the humanoid robot. The second study (Study B) was similar, except that the virtual character demonstrating the physics was a regular-sized cat. Our preregistered hypotheses predicted that participants would consider the correct approximation of physics as better matching their expectations at normal scale, and the incorrect one as better matching their expectations at the reduced scale. However, only the second of these hypotheses was supported. According to our exploratory analyses, the participant's own scale was a poor predictor of physics preference, and instead there was a significant effect regarding the virtual character's identity. Participants observing the virtual cat were about eight times more likely to select the realistic physics model compared to those observing the humanoid robot. The results indicate that familiar cues tied to virtual character identity overrode any potential effects related to changes in the participants' own scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article explores the presentation of fake news, the most salient kind of disinformation, focusing neither on its text-based content nor its image-based form, but instead on its overall aesthetic composition—and how and why that composition contributes to the proliferation of disinformation. It begins with an analysis of “real news”—the genre that fake news attempts to copy—and its reliance on what Gaye Tuchman calls the “web of facticity” to communicate “good” information. It then turns to examine how fake news uses the logic of graphic design to exploit features of the web of facticity to create a “web of plausibility”—the web of facticity’s evil twin—to generate momentum for circulation through the analysis of several specific aesthetic features of the news genre. The conclusion offers some possible ways that this sort of perspective can better equip us to help stop the spread of disinformation.

Virtual humans play a pivotal role in social virtual environments, shaping users' VR experiences. The diversity in available options and users' individual preferences can result in a heterogeneous mix of appearances among a group of virtual humans. The resulting variety in higher-order anthropomorphic and realistic cues introduces multiple (in)congruencies, eventually impacting the plausibility of the experience. However, related work investigating the effects of being co-located with multiple virtual humans of different appearances remains limited. In this work, we consider the impact of (in)congruencies in the realism of a group of virtual humans, including co-located others (agents) and one's selfrepresentation (self-avatar), on users' individual VR experiences. In a 2 × 3 mixed design, participants embodied either (1) a personalized realistic or (2) a customized stylized self-avatar across three consecutive VR exposures in which they were accompanied by a group of virtual others being either (1) all realistic, (2) all stylized, or (3) mixed between stylized and realistic. Our results indicate groups of virtual others of higher realism, i.e., potentially more congruent with participants' real-world experiences and expectations, were considered more human-like, increasing the feeling of co-presence and the impression of interaction possibilities. (In)congruencies concerning the homogeneity of the group did not cause considerable effects. Furthermore, our results indicate that a self-avatar's congruence with the participant's real-world experiences concerning their own physical body yielded notable benefits for virtual body ownership and self-identification for realistic personalized avatars. Notably, the incongruence between a stylized self-avatar and a group of realistic virtual others resulted in diminished ratings of self-location and self-identification. This suggests that higher-order (in)congruent visual cues that are not within the ego-central referential frame of one's (virtual) body, can have an (adverse) effect on the relationship between one's self and body. We conclude on the implications of our findings and discuss our results within current theories of VR experiences, considering (in)congruent visual cues and their impact on the perception of virtual others, self-representation, and spatial presence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While researchers find that attorneys in CSA trials dedicate substantial time to questioning children about the plausibility of their reports, we know of no study to date that has assessed the types of plausibility issues attorneys raise, the relative frequency of different types, or if attorneys vary their plausibility questioning depending on case characteristics. In the current study we explored these questions. Guided by the story model of jury decision-making, we proposed defense attorneys would raise plausibility issues by (1) highlighting jurors' misconceptions about CSA dynamics; (2) highlighting confusing or implausible statements made by the child; and (3) offering alternative explanations for events. We conducted a content analysis of the cross-examinations of 134 children aged 5–17 testifying about alleged CSA. We found that attorneys raised all three proposed types of plausibility questioning, and they varied their plausibility questioning somewhat by age, severity, child-defendant relationship, and the number of victims in the case. Attorneys' preferred strategy was to highlight jurors' misconceptions about CSA. Prosecutors should address jurors' misconceptions preemptively in direct examinations of children or through expert testimony. Beyond implications for courtroom practices, our plausibility framework may apply to plausibility concerns raised in other crime types, something researchers should explore. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examined the efficacy of a Model Statement to detect opinion lies. A total of 93 participants discussed their opinion about the recent strikes on two occasions, 1 week apart. In one interview they told the truth and in the other interview they lied. Each interview consisted of two phases. In Phase 1 they discussed their alleged opinion (truth or lie as appropriate). They then either listened to a Model Statement (a detailed account of someone discussing an opinion about a topic unrelated to strike actions) and expressed their opinion again in Phase 2 (Model Statement present condition) or they discussed their opinion again without listening to a Model Statement (Model Statement absent condition). The verbal cues examined were pro‐opinion arguments, anti‐opinion arguments, plausibility, immediacy, directness, clarity, and predictability. The truthful statements sounded more plausible in Phases 1 and 2 than the deceptive statements, providing further evidence that plausibility is a strong veracity indicator. The truthful statements included more pro‐arguments and sounded more immediate and direct than the deceptive statements, but only in Phase 2. The Model Statement had no effect. Reasons for the Model Statement null‐effect are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transformer-based language models have advanced Natural Language Processing (NLP), achieving state-of-the-art results across various tasks. However, their complex architectures often obscure the decision-making processes, making transparency a critical challenge, especially in sensitive applications. The emerging field of eXplainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) seeks to address this by enhancing model transparency. Nonetheless, the primary focus of XAI has largely been on high-resource languages, neglecting low-resource ones such as Arabic. In this paper, we first show the importance of studying XAI in the Arabic language. We then detail our methodology, which involves adapting AraBERT and AraGPT models to specific tasks including Arabic sentiment analysis and semantic question similarity. Then, we conduct an empirical study to evaluate various XAI methods, specifically gradient-based and perturbation-based approaches. These methods are assessed using two key metrics: faithfulness and plausibility. Our findings suggest that while gradient-based methods are more faithful, perturbation-based methods align better with human judgment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the response at an unobserved location is a fundamental problem in spatial statistics. Given the difficulty in modeling spatial dependence, especially in nonstationary cases, model-based prediction intervals are at risk of misspecification bias that can negatively affect their validity. Here we present a new approach for model-free nonparametric spatial prediction based on the conformal prediction machinery. Our key observation is that spatial data can be treated as exactly or approximately exchangeable in a wide range of settings. In particular, under an infill asymptotic regime, we prove that the response values are, in a certain sense, locally approximately exchangeable for a broad class of spatial processes, and we develop a local spatial conformal prediction algorithm that yields valid prediction intervals without strong model assumptions like stationarity. Numerical examples with both real and simulated data confirm that the proposed conformal prediction intervals are valid and generally more efficient than existing model-based procedures for large datasets across a range of nonstationary and non-Gaussian settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper fills a gap in the existing metaphilosophical research on paradoxes by focusing on the role of scenarios. Typical philosophical paradoxes contain a scenario description whose contribution to paradoxes remains unexplored. I argue that scenarios are examples or instantiations of the abstract schema of paradoxes. As such, scenarios contribute to paradoxes on two levels. First, they make the argument more concrete, thus enhancing the dialectical force of paradoxes and facilitating their understanding, especially for non-experts. This function is external to the paradox itself, but has important practical implications for the use of paradoxes and their effect on philosophical debates, and it contributes to explaining why philosophical paradoxes are usually introduced by a scenario. Second, and more crucially, scenarios are essential to the epistemic dimension of paradoxes. By definition, paradoxes have two necessary components: the argumentative structure and the plausibility/implausibility of the premises/conclusion. By providing examples of the abstract schema, scenarios contribute to making the premises plausible. In particular, scenarios are the source of plausibility and justification for those premises that contain an empirically grounded assertion of existence. Examples of such paradoxes are the Sorites paradox, the Lottery paradox, and the Grue paradox. Contrary to the dialectical role, the epistemic function of scenarios is indispensable, as it connects paradoxes to the real world and underscores their significance in specific debates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Visual abductive reasoning is the logical process of drawing the most plausible hypothesis based on given observations. This ability is fundamental to artificial intelligence because it enables inference from incomplete information. However, little research has been conducted on Korean visual abductive reasoning. To examine the capability of a multimodal language model’s Korean visual abductive reasoning, we set a simple baseline model and analyzed how it numerically estimated the plausibility for all Korean hypothesis sentences through a multiple-choice task. This task was implemented using a simple dual encoder model and the Korean Story Cloze dataset. After fine-tuning with the binary-choice task discriminating the plausible hypothesis from the implausible one, our baseline model shows an accuracy of 79.81%. In multiple-choice task designed to check for the influence of overfitting or annotation artifacts, the model estimated the plausibilities of four options in the order of Groundtruth≃ Plausible>Implausible≫Random. We also conducted experiments to analyze how the model performed Korean visual abductive reasoning. It was observed that the model made little use of the observation before the hypothesis but demonstrated a similar tendency to humans, struggling with data samples which humans also struggle with when evaluating the plausibility of given sentences. Our study sets a research foundation for numerically analyzing and understanding the language models’ visual abductive reasoning ability in the Korean context. It also shows both the potential and limitations of the language model’s Korean visual abductive reasoning ability and provides clues for future research directions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ICJ’s Order on provisional measures in the case of the Application of the Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in the Gaza Strip (South Africa v. Israel) raised a lot of interest, mainly concerning the ceasefire requested by South Africa. After the Order was delivered, a general feeling of disappointment seems to have taken hold. Yet the Court’s decision was not entirely unexpected, given the Court’s practice as well as the particularities and complexities of the case.In this work, we critically analyse the path followed by the Court leading to the rendering of its provisional measures. We pay particular attention to the requirements to be met: prima faciejurisdiction; the plausibility of the rights and its link with the requested measures; and irreparable prejudice and urgency. This editorial seeks to clarify the Court’s position and analysis, relating it to other orders so as to understand the provisional measures delivered.This case is not merely a legal issue. It is one of social interest. And too much was expected of the Court in the wake of the extraordinary provisional measures rendered in Ukraine v. Russian Federation. In this latter case, however, the unmentioned issue of self-defence played an essential role, permeating the whole process and limiting the extent of the measures. LA PROVIDENCIA DEL TIJ SOBRE MEDIDAS PROVISIONALES DE ENERO DE 2024 EN SUDÁFRICA CONTRA ISRAEL SOBRE EL CASO DE GENOCIDIO: UNA DECISIÓN ESPERADA PERO DECEPCIONANTE La Providencia del Tribunal Internacional de Justicia sobre medidas provisionales en el caso de Aplicación de la Convención para la Prevención y la Sanción del Delito de Genocidio en la Franja de Gaza (Sudáfrica contra Israel), ha suscitado un gran interés, principalmente en relación con el alto el fuego solicitado por Sudáfrica. Tras la publicación de la Providencia, parece haberse instalado en algunos un sentimiento general de decepción, pero la decisión del Tribunal no difiere mucho de lo que cabría esperar, dada la práctica del Tribunal, y las particularidades y complejidades del caso.Este trabajo pretende ofrecer un análisis crítico del camino seguido por el Tribunal para dictar su providencia de medidas provisionales, prestando especial atención a los requisitos que deben ser cumplidos: la competencia prima facie, la plausibilidad de los derechos y su vinculación con las medidas solicitadas, y el perjuicio irreparable y la urgencia. Este editorial pretende aclarar la posición y el análisis del Tribunal, relacionándolo con otras órdenes a fin de entender las medidas provisionales adoptadas. Este caso no versa solo sobre una mera cuestión jurídica, sino que es un caso de interés social, esperándose demasiado del Tribunal tras las extraordinarias medidas provisionales dictadas en el caso de Ucrania contra la Federación Rusa. Sin embargo, en este caso, la cuestión no mencionada de la legítima defensa jugó un papel esencial, impregnando todo el procedimiento y limitando la extensión de las medidas. L’ORDONNANCE DE LA CIJ SUR MESURES PROVISOIRES DE JANVIER 2024 EN AFRIQUE DU SUD C. ISRAËL DANS L’AFFAIRE DE GÉNOCIDE : UNE DÉCISION ATTENDUE MAIS DÉCEVANTE L’ordonnance de la Cour sur les mesures conservatoires dans l’affaire concernant l’Application de la convention pour la prévention et la répression du crime de génocide dans la bande de Gaza (Afrique du Sud c. Israël) a suscité beaucoup d’intérêt, notamment en ce qui concerne le cessez-le-feu demandé par l’Afrique du Sud. Un sentiment général de déception a pu être aperçu suite à la publication de cette ordonnance. Cependant, on pourrait bien s’atteindre à cette décission, compte tenu de la pratique préalable de la Cour et des particularités et complexité de l’affaire.Ce travail offre un analyse critique du parcours suivi par la Cour pour rendre ses mesures provisoires et fait attention aux exigences qu’ y doivent être satisfaites: d’abord, la compétence prima facie; ensuite, la plausibilité des droits et leur lien avec les mesures demandées; enfin, la situation d’urgence et le risque d’un préjudice irreparable. Cet éditorial vise aussi à expliquer la position et l’analyse de la Cour d’après d’autres ordonnances préalables, pour comprendre ainsi les mesures provisoires rendues dans cette affaire.D’autre part, l’affaire nous enmène non seulement à une question juridique, mais aussi à une question d’intérêt social. Ainsi, après les mesures provisoires extraordinaires rendues dans l’affaire Ukraine c. Fédération de Russie, Il s’attendait beaucoup de la Cour. Cependant, dans ce cas, la question non mentionnée de la légitime défense a joué un rôle essentiel, present tout au long de la procédure, limitant l’étendue des mesures adoptées.

This work expands the existing understanding of quality assessments of VR experiences. Historically, VR quality has focused on presence and immersion, but current discourse emphasizes plausibility and believability as critical for lifelike, credible VR. However, the two concepts are often conflated, leading to confusion. This paper proposes viewing them as subsets of authenticity and presents a structured hierarchy delineating their differences and connections. Additionally, coherence and congruence are presented as complementary quality functions that integrate internal and external logic. The paper considers quality formation in the experience of authenticity inside VR emphasizing that distinguishing authenticity in terms of precise quality features are essential for accurate assessments. Evaluating quality requires a holistic approach across perceptual, cognitive, and emotional factors. This model provides theoretical grounding for assessing the quality of VR experiences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The method of reflective equilibrium (MRE) is a method of justification popularized by John Rawls and further developed by Norman Daniels, Michael DePaul, Folke Tersman, and Catherine Z. Elgin, among others. The basic idea is that epistemic agents have justified beliefs if they have succeeded in forming their beliefs into a harmonious system of beliefs which they reflectively judge to be the most plausible. Despite the common reference to MRE as a method, its mechanisms or rules are typically expressed in a metaphorical or simplified manner and are therefore criticized as too vague. Recent efforts to counter this criticism have been directed towards the attempt to provide formal explications of MRE. This paper aims to supplement these efforts by providing an informal working definition of MRE. This approach challenges the view that MRE can adequately be characterized only in the negative as a set of anti-essentialisms. I argue that epistemic agents follow MRE iff they follow four interconnected rules, which are concerned with a minimalistic form of foundationalism, a minimalistic form of fallibilism, a moderate form of holism, and a minimalistic form of rationality. In the critical spirit of MRE, the corresponding working definition is, of course, provisional and revisable. In general, the aim is to contribute to a reflective equilibrium (RE) concerning MRE. If it is successful, this working definition provides a better grasp of the most basic elements of the method and thereby enhances our understanding of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We discuss a central question in the study of courts: What do judges want? We suggest three different domains that might serve as the basic preferences of a judge: case dispositions and rules, caseloads and case mixes, and social consequences. We emphasize preferences over dispositions on the grounds of plausibility and tractability. We then identify desireable properties of dispositional utility functions and the relationship between dispositional utility and expected utility for rules. We examine the impact on expected rule utility from case distributions that are sensitive to the enforced rule. We illustrate how to combine dipositional utility with efforts costs and time constraints. We provide examples of case spaces, dispositional utility functions, and expected utility functions for enforced rules. This essay is an early draft of a chapter of a book-in-progress on the positive political theory of courts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to explanationist theories of evidence, fact-finders reason by evaluating the 'goodness' of different narratives that explain the evidence. One standard is external coherence: does the narrative fit with what the fact-finder knows or assumes about the world? This study uses qualitative content analysis to examine how District Court judges draw inferences directly from 'background knowledge' in 119 Finnish rape cases and how these inferences are contested by dissenting and appellate judges. The results show that especially the complainant's behaviour was frequently evaluated against behavioural scripts and other background beliefs. Outspoken reliance on rape myths was relatively rare, and myths were explicitly resisted as often as they were relied upon. Where judges used stereotypical behaviour to support the rape complainant's testimony, this reasoning could be explained by the search for optimum (explanatory) coherence or the Finnish legal principle that a rape complainant's testimony requires supporting evidence. Judges also used estimates of prior probabilities to inform their reasoning; few behaviours are impossible, but some actions are 'more coherent' with rape than with non-rape, or vice versa. Accruing the type of knowledge necessary (and usually unavailable) for probabilistic reasoning is therefore necessary also for explanationist reasoning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simin Daneshvar is one of the contemporary Persian writers whose influence on fiction is undeniable. She has her particular voice and narration, marked by outstanding knowledge of various fields including literature, sociology, psychology, anthropology, and local and national traditions that greatly contributed to the depth and breadth of her narration. Daneshvar is one of the few non-biased writers whose works are a mirror to society, representing almost most of the political, social, and cultural discourses of the age. Her works capture a critical moment in the history of Iran, criticizing the distortions and prejudices among the people and the higher layers of society. She believes in a kind of freedom that leads to emancipation not only politically but also mentally and intellectually (Razaviyan, 2013: 94; Rad et al., 2017: 12). A City Like Paradise (1961), Savushun (1969), To Whom Shall I Say Hello? (1980), and Island of Wandering (1992), together with translations of Arms and the Man (1949), The Scarlet Letter (1954), The Human Comedy (1954), Cry, the Beloved Country (1972), and The Cherry Orchard (2003) are among her works. The present research studies Savushun, which takes place in the feudal period in Shiraz, coinciding with the Second World War, when Iran was occupied by the British and the Russians from the south and the north, respectively, and the people suffered from hunger and famine due to this occupation. The story centers on Zari, whose husband, Yusuf, has a tragic death. Yusuf is a local ruler who resists the extravagance of the British, who are preparing for their war, to sell wheat to them. Unlike the other landowners who agreed to do this, Yusuf cares about his people who are dying of famine and disease, so in the end, he is killed by a conspiracy. The struggle for independence can be seen as the main theme of Savushun. This struggle is not only limited to men; although Zari seems passive at the beginning, she joins her husband in fighting against foreigners. Fascism, feudalism and peasant life, foreign occupation and colonialism, nationalism, the fall of Reza Pahlavi, patriarchal society and the women's movement and rise, cultural taboos, superstitions, religion, and popular culture and folklore are some of the other topics raised in this novel. (Qobadi and et al, 1398: 159-178; Kafi and Ameri, 1394: 24-5; Payandeh, 1397: 36-18; Vatani and Salehi, 1399: 382-382) and this volume of references to culture and events of a period is rare among Persian novels. Savushun is not just a novel about an idealistic man fighting against Westernization and colonialism, but the reader witnesses the emergence of an active woman who abandons passivity and rises to struggle and resistance (Abazari and Behyan, 1386: 110-110). Payandeh points out that “If we want to examine Savushun from the perspective of traditional historicism, then we have to say that although this novel narrates a fictional story, it reflects history like a transparent mirror” (1397: 20). Allegory is one of the other dimensions of this novel so that the reader can read this work in the form of the story of Joseph prophet or the story of Siavash, that is, both in a religious context and in a historical-literary context. This type of narrative helps the reader to see the historical background of the novel in the cultural past and the tradition and to examine time and the work in the cultural and social context. Because of all the above, Simin Daneshvar can be considered a nativist, because even in her literary and written language she adheres to the culture and environment of Iran. Although the novel is a foreign genre, Daneshvar has been able to localize it well and give her work an independent color by referring to culture, myth, allegory, etc. The point that makes this novel even more significant concerning dissidence is Daneshvar’s dealing with the political details of the power structure, which not only benefits from its power and influence in the occupied country for its interests, but also takes advantage of the cultural, literary, and artistic roots of that country as a means to advance its goals and make the public consolidate with its presence and occupation. The British occupied Iran for implausible reasons, and if they could not justify their presence to the people of their colony, they would not have achieved their goals, which were to supply their soldiers with necessities in the war and confront the influence of Nazism in Iran. This is why they justify their presence not only by influencing education and using art but also by benefiting from Iranian myths, especially the institutionalized cultural principle among the people, which is the fight against oppressors. However, Daneshvar shows well how Iranian people use the same myth for dissidence and this is the weakness of the ideology of power and colonialism. This article discusses power structure and dissidence in the novel, whose theoretical roots can be seen in Alan Sinfield’s theory of faultlines. 2. Methodology Alan Sinfield maintains that “all the characters in [Othello] are telling stories, and to convince others” (29), for plausibility in storytelling in society generates power, so that “the conditions of plausibility are therefore crucial-they determine which stories will be believed” (1992, 29-30). Just like characters in stories and human beings in society, groups of society, to generate power and their plausibility, tell stories as he points “the state is the most powerful scriptor; it is best placed to enforce its story” (ibid, 31). As stories are not perfect, the plausibility of stories told by ideology, controlling society and power structure, cannot be perfect as well so dissidence is possible. Sinfield then believes dissidence is not initiated by individuals concerning human principles but by disorder and gap embedded in the ideology’s storytelling. He calls this gap or lack faultlines, which is revealed in the ideology’s attempt to keep its plausibility. In this context, Sinfield introduces an interesting example from the play Othello. In the structure and social order of Venice, blacks and women are considered inferior to white men. Othello has been able to raise himself in the social order by fighting and defending Venice against the Turks, but he still feels the threat of inferiority. Women should also obey men first and in the family the father and then the husband. When Desdemona marries Othello, who is black, she initiates dissidence against the male-dominated ideology and power structure. On the one hand, she marries Othello against her father's wish, which is against the patriarchal system of that society. On the other hand, Othello is black but a man, and Othello can never feel superior to Desdemona who is white. In fact, Desdemona questions and challenges the social order that is based on race and gender with her choice to marry, which even ideology itself cannot object. Therefore, the meaning of dissidence is not to disturb the whole ideology, but to challenge it, which means that from the order existing in its structure, one can reach the disorder, which will challenge the entire ideology, calling into question its wholeness. 3. Discussion The occupiers ought to introduce a plausible story for their presence and occupation, a story that is close to common sense and believable for the people of a country. The story of the occupiers in the novel can be seen in the show organized by Captain Zinger. In the show, Hitler can be seen in the shape and figure of a scarecrow with the head of a snake. In the reading of the show as seen by Christians, Hitler is actually the devil who must be avoided and defeated for salvation. The reason for the presence of the Britians is to fight against a great evil, but it is the people of Iran who must pay the price and die of famine and hunger in order to meet the needs of the military in the war. There are three main points about this part of the novel. One is that the main reason and intention of occupying Iran is hidden under a layer of a bigger and more ultimate goal. Second, in order to convince people, an educational tool called show and film is applied. The third point is that the occupiers intend to Christianize the world war with this show and present it in the form of the story of man and the devil. The story of the cruel and evil ruler and the oppressed people who are under pressure from this ruler is plausible for the people of Iran, and the occupiers have chosen a suitable story for their purposes to convince the people about their presence, because common sense, history, culture and Iranian literature is tied to a similar story, and that is the story of Zahhak the Snake Shoulder. In fact, since the people of Iran have the story of Zahhak and the people's resistance and uprising by Kaveh the Blacksmith and Fereydoun, they are more inclined to a similar story, that is, Hitler who has the head of a snake and is cruel. In this way, an Iranian cultural myth and story is used as a tool to convince people about Iran's occupation. In Persian mythology, Siavash can be mentioned as a holy man. He is from the royal family and the son of Kay Kāvus, who is accused and intrigued by Sudabeh, Kay Kāvus's wife, when Siavash refuses Sudabeh's illegitimate request for intercourse due to chastity. He comes out of the accusations when he passes through the fire safely. Kay Kāvus cannot blame Sudabeh as she is connected to his ally from the west and he needs her to maintain the state. As a result, Siavash is forced to voluntarily go to war with Afrasiab. He defeats Afrasiab and the latter provides people as refugees to Siavash for the peace agreement, who will never attack Iran. Kay Kāvus, however, orders Siavash to execute those refugees, yet Siavash refuses out of humanitarianism. In fact, Kay Kāvus knows that Siavash has such pure intentions that he will not commit such a crime, and Kay Kāvus benefits from this action for his benefit: that is, he tries to eliminate Siavash's threat to the throne. So, Siavash has betrayed his country and nation. For this reason, Siavash's blood is shed in exile. But Siavash's popularity among the people of Iran is so high that his death becomes a ritual ceremony that people perform every year. The mourning of Siavash or Siavashan can be considered as a ceremony in which the whole structure of power and law is separated and the hierarchies that exist in this structure are destroyed and open the way to confront the power. Zari takes advantage of Siavash's mourning ceremony and simulates it to the death and killing of Yusuf in the story putting the power structure at a weak point because this ceremony in its essence disrupts the power structure. With the dreams that inform about Yusuf's death, Zari prepares his mind for the connection of his death with the Siavashan ceremony. In these dreams, Yusuf is fighting with the British, and it can be seen that the devil in the story of the British changes from Hitler to Sergeant Zinger and the ruler. The occupiers’ story loses its plausibility since Zari’s story is more plausible to the Iranian people than what they devised. 4. Conclusion Daneshvar represents how the power structure penetrates the social and cultural tradition of a nation and seeks its benefit with modifications. She reveals that colonialism does not openly penetrate the culture of a country and attempts to secretly change everything for its benefit by paying attention to local structures. For this reason, studies on the influence of the power structure and investigating ways of dissidence are among the main subjects of cultural materialism studies. The occupiers must also prepare stories for the plunder of Iran so as not to face the resistance of the people. The British are cleverly trying to convince the people by using the tools of drama and film that they are fighting against a satanic ruler and tyrant like Hitler, and this fight is for the sake of all the people of the world. By using the myth of Zahhak, they try to force their presence in a fight against the oppressors. But Yusuf is aware of their main intention and knows that this occupation is only for their interests and the people of Iran should not retaliate for a war in which they had no intervention. Therefore, he refused to give his wheat to the British, and this caused him to be killed by them. However, Zari, who has now become an active woman and wants to continue her husband's struggle, applies the same gap in the power structure and narrates a stronger story than the story of the British, in which all the people are rebelling against the occupiers. He also borrows from the myth and compares the story of Yusuf's death with the story of Siavash who was innocently killed. Therefore, the plan of the occupiers to use their own myths and the natives of Iran with a richer use of myth fails. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined whether the phenomenology (vividness, absorption, sexual arousal) and plausibility of sexual fantasies are associated with behavioural motivation and enactment. An online sample (N = 254) completed a working memory capacity (WMC) questionnaire. They then envisioned an unenacted sexual fantasy and rated its phenomenological characteristics and their motivation to enact it. Next, a questionnaire measuring deliberate sexual fantasising, spontaneous sexual thoughts, behavioural enactment, and content plausibility was completed. Phenomenological characteristics were unrelated to WMC, but positively associated with motivation. Deliberate fantasising was associated with behavioural enactment for both non-paraphilic and paraphilic content. Spontaneous thoughts were associated with the plausibility of non-paraphilic and paraphilic content, while deliberate fantasising was only associated with plausible non-paraphilic content. Plausibility mediated the relationship between sexual thinking and behaviour for both types of content. The results suggest that the phenomenology and plausibility of sexual fantasises are important factors for understanding the sexual fantasy-behaviour link. Practice impact statement The present results suggest that, in addition to content and frequency, the phenomenological characteristics and perceived plausibility of sexual fantasies are important factors to consider when trying to understand the link between sexual fantasising and behaviour, including sexual offending behaviour. As such, bringing the imaginative element of sexual fantasising into consideration may be a useful undertaking when assessing and managing problematic sexual fantasies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

3D audio spatializers for Virtual Reality (VR) can use the acoustic properties of the surfaces of a visualised game space to calculate a matching reverb. However, this approach could lead to reverbs that impair the tasks performed in such a space, such as listening to speech-based audio. Sound designers would then have to alter the room's acoustic properties independently of its visualisation to improve speech intelligibility, causing audio-visual incongruency. As user expectation of simulated room acoustics regarding speech intelligibility in VR has not been studied, this study asked participants to rate the congruency of reverbs and their visualisations in 6-DoF VR while listening to speech-based audio. The participants compared unaltered, matching reverbs with sound-designed, mismatching reverbs. The latter feature improved D50s and reduced RT60s at the cost of lower audio-visual congruency. Results suggest participants preferred improved reverbs only when the unaltered reverbs had comparatively low D50s or excessive ringing. Otherwise, too dry or too reverberant reverbs were disliked. The range of expected RT60s depended on the surface visualisation. Differences in timbre between the reverbs may not affect preferences as strongly as shorter RT60s. Therefore, sound designers can intervene and prioritise speech intelligibility over audio-visual congruency in acoustically challenging game spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to previous research, humans are exceptionally skilled at distinguishing earth-congruent object trajectories from earth-discrepant ones. Inconsistent scale cues in Virtual Reality (VR), however, are shown to easily confuse VR users’ scale, size, and distance estimations. This paper describes the results of two studies, with 40 participants each, which tested the effects of self-scaling, and size cues from active virtual characters, on perceived physics coherence (i.e., subjective realism). In the first study (Study A), a humanoid robot the size of a doll manipulated household objects to demonstrate their rigid body dynamics. The demonstration sequence was performed twice, once using a correct approximation of physics, and once using an incorrect one in which gravity was simulated similarly to as if the doll-sized robot was human-sized and the surrounding room was enlarged. The participants observed both demonstrations, once while standing at the normal scale and once at a reduced scale, similar to that of the humanoid robot. The second study (Study B) was similar, except that the virtual character demonstrating the physics was a regular-sized cat. Our preregistered hypotheses predicted that participants would consider the correct approximation of physics as better matching their expectations at normal scale, and the incorrect one as better matching their expectations at the reduced scale. However, only the second of these hypotheses was supported. According to our exploratory analyses, the participant’s own scale was a poor predictor of physics preference, and instead there was a significant effect regarding the virtual character’s identity. Participants observing the virtual cat were about eight times more likely to select the realistic physics model compared to those observing the humanoid robot. The results indicate that familiar cues tied to virtual character identity overrode any potential effects related to changes in the participants’ own scale.

This article explores what ‘plausible’ means in statements about legal evidence and shows that it is highly ambiguous. Twelve different meanings of ‘plausibility’ are identified and distinguished from each other by definitions. Contrary to what has been claimed by some evidence scholars (Allen and Pardo, 2019), the article shows that all uses of ‘plausibility’ can be captured in terms of probability. The author also shows that the exposed ambiguity is deeply problematic for legal practice and legal scholarship. The fundamental principle of justice that ‘like cases should be treated alike’ is endangered when the standard of proof is expressed in an ambiguous way, and the scientific testability of hypotheses about legal fact-finding is undermined when these hypotheses are formulated in ambiguous terms.

Anne Schienle, Arved Seibel Department of Clinical Psychology, University of Graz, Graz, AustriaCorrespondence: Anne Schienle, Email anne.schienle@uni-graz.atBackground: Open-label placebos (OLPs), honestly prescribed regarding their inert nature, have been associated with positive health-related effects in both children and adults. However, OLPs are not always perceived by laypeople as a viable treatment option.Methods: A brief online survey with 806 adult participants (age range: 18– 75 years; 29% parents) was conducted to identify predictor variables that are associated with the willingness to take an OLP pill (criterion 1) or to give an OLP to one’s child (criterion 2). The survey covered aspects including the perceived plausibility of the treatment concept for both OLPs and deceptive placebos (DPs), self-reported knowledge about placebos, the expected effectiveness of OLPs in treating emotional/ somatic problems, and attitudes concerning taking pills in general. Multiple hierarchical regressions were carried out.Results: The expected effectiveness of OLPs in alleviating both emotional and physical ailments and the plausibility of the treatment concepts for both OLPs and DPs significantly predicted the willingness to use OLPs (R2 = 0.485). A similar finding was observed when predicting the willingness to administer an OLP to one’s child (R2 = 0.443).Conclusion: Favorable expectations regarding the reduction of emotional and somatic symptoms with OLPs, along with a strong belief in the credibility of placebo mechanisms, play a vital role in influencing the willingness to accept this kind of treatment. These factors can be incorporated into psychoeducational programs.Plain Language Summary: Placebos that are administered to a person honestly, without any deception regarding their inert nature, are referred to as open-label placebos (OLPs). Recent research has documented that the concept of OLPs can be subject to skepticism by placebo recipients. Therefore, the current brief survey was directed at identifying factors that are associated with one’s reported willingness to, firstly, take an OLP, and secondly, to treat one’s child with an OLP. The results indicated polarized attitudes towards OLP treatment: a third of the participants held exceedingly unfavorable attitudes regarding OLPs, whereas another third was highly receptive to this form of treatment. Attitudes were influenced by expected treatment effects and the perceived plausibility of placebo concepts.Keywords: open-label placebos, acceptance, outcome expectation, plausibility, children

The article investigates whether there is a need for legislative action in social networks—which are similar to broadcasting—to ensure that diversity of opinion can be sufficiently expressed to protect freedom of opinion-forming. The investigation focuses on Facebook because it has the largest number of registered users worldwide and is thus the network with the greatest reach. First and foremost, it will be debated whether social networks have a power of opinion comparable to broadcasting. Based on this foundation, it is possible to assess the extent to which diversity of opinion is expressed in social networks and the extent to which freedom to form opinions is actually under threat.

This work expands the existing understanding of quality assessments of VR experiences. Historically, VR quality has focused on presence and immersion, but current discourse emphasizes plausibility and believability as critical for lifelike, credible VR. However, the two concepts are often conflated, leading to confusion. This paper proposes viewing them as subsets of authenticity and presents a structured hierarchy delineating their differences and connections. Additionally, coherence and congruence are presented as complementary quality functions that integrate internal and external logic. The paper considers quality formation in the experience of authenticity inside VR emphasizing that distinguishing authenticity in terms of precise quality features are essential for accurate assessments. Evaluating quality requires a holistic approach across perceptual, cognitive, and emotional factors. This model provides theoretical grounding for assessing the quality of VR experiences.

There is an urgent need to enhance climate projections for Central Equatorial Africa (CEA), given the region's high vulnerability to climatic hazards and its economy's heavy dependence on climate‐sensitive sectors. This study aims to evaluate the performance of the regional earth system model ROM, composed of the atmosphere‐only regional climate model (RCM) REMO coupled with the global Max Planck Institute for Meteorology Ocean Model (MPIOM), in reproducing the precipitation climatology over CEA. ROM results are compared to those of REMO in two sets of experiments, one driven by the ERA‐Interim reanalysis and the other by the MPI‐ESM‐LR earth system model (ESM), both at ∼25‐km horizontal resolution. Results show that ocean coupling improves rainfall climatology thanks to a better representation of the physical processes and mechanisms underlying the rainfall system. In particular, an improved sea surface temperature (SST) results in a more realistic simulation of land‐atmosphere‐ocean interactions, and subsequently the atmospheric baroclinicity. Specifically, the coupling reduces the positive SST bias inherited by the driving ESM across the entire Guinea Gulf and Benguela‐Angola coastal seas. This leads to better simulated land‐ocean thermal and pressure contrasts. Improvements in land‐ocean contrasts, in turn, enhance the representation of the regional atmospheric circulation, and thus precipitation. Interestingly, the coupling is more beneficial when ROM is driven by the ESM than the reanalysis. This study emphasizes the advantage of dynamically downscaling ESMs using regional earth system models rather than atmosphere‐only RCMs, with the potential to enhance confidence in future climate projections. Plain Language Summary: Designing timely and relevant societal responses to climate‐related impacts and risks to humans and natural systems requires reliable information about climate variability and projected change, especially at regional scales. For this purpose, considerable efforts were devoted to the improvement of the numerical models used to represent the climate system, including better formulation of the models' physical and dynamical components and the inclusion of feedback between different components of the climate systems, such as those between the ocean and the atmosphere. In this study we aim at investigating whether the use of a regional climate model which includes an explicit representation (coupling) of the ocean is able to better simulate (i.e., adds value) the main mechanisms responsible for precipitation over Central Equatorial Africa. The results show that the coupled model is indeed able to simulate more realistically the complex physical processes and mechanisms underpinning the rainfall system. Our findings advocate for the use of the global ocean‐regional atmosphere coupling approach for regional climate change projection analyses. Key Points: The global ocean‐regional atmosphere coupling improves the rainfall climatology compared to its atmosphere‐only counterpart modelThe added value resulting from the coupling is plausible, as associated with improvements in the processes underpinning the rainfall systemThe added value is modulated by the boundary conditions, with better suitability under the imperfect forcing mode [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A commonly established protocol for the administration of open-label placebos (OLPs)—placebos honestly prescribed—emphasizes the necessity of ingesting the pill for the placebo effect to manifest. The current functional magnetic resonance imaging study used a novel approach to OLP administration: the imaginary intake of an OLP pill for regulating disgust. A total of 99 females were randomly allocated to one of three groups that either swallowed a placebo pill (OLP Pill), imagined the intake of a placebo pill (Imaginary Pill) or passively viewed (PV) repulsive and neutral images. The imaginary pill reduced reported disgust more effectively than the OLP pill and was also perceived as a more plausible method to reduce emotional distress. Relative to the OLP pill, the imaginary pill lowered neural activity in a region of interest involved in disgust processing: the pallidum. No signifcant differences in brain activation were found when comparing the OLP pill with PV. These fndings highlight that imagining the intake of an OLP emerged as a superior method for regulating feelings of disgust compared to the actual ingestion of a placebo pill. The study’s innovative approach sheds new light on the potential of placebo interventions in emotion regulation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examined the emergence of the post-explanation effect. Explanations have a recursive effect on perceptions of the explained object, focusing on the perception of reality of things whose existence is ambiguous. This study also tested the hypothesis that the higher the self-evaluation of the explanation, the higher the perception of reality of existence for the explained object to clarify variables related to the effect’s magnitude. In two experiments, participants imagined and explained the purpose of use and background of developing a novel product and rated the product’s reality of existence before and after the explanation. The analysis revealed that participants in Experiment 1 who explained the cubic soccer ball rated its reality of existence higher after than before the explanation. Experiment 2 showed that among the self-evaluations, the plausibility of the explanation’s contents is related to an increase in the perception of the reality of existence. We discussed the cognitive processes that are assumed to underlie explanation bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

According to Gérard Genette, frame narratives are one of few reliable textual markers of fictionality. While very different from the corpus studied by Genette, al-Tanūkhī's (d. 384/994) compilation al-Faraj baʿd alshidda includes many anecdotes featuring at least one instance of narrative framing, as well as many more anecdotes told on a single narrative level (after the usual introductory chain of transmitters). As such, the compilation presents a good case study for the link between fictionality and narrative levels in a premodern Arabic context. On the strength of many examples drawn from the compilation, this article describes three uses of frame narratives in the Faraj and argues that even if some of the compiled material thematizes questions of reports' plausibility (rather than "fictionality"), narrative levels are not a reliable marker of stories considered to be more implausible. One use of the frame narrative in the Faraj is indeed in addressing a report's plausibility (1), but other anecdotes achieve this without any such framing. Moreover, frame narratives also take on other functions whereby they neither flag nor are reliably associated with a story's lesser plausibility. Such functions include anchoring a story's narration within a familiar situation and highlighting the message of a narrative by setting up parallels between its different levels (2). Another function is to negotiate the incorporation of less familiar voices and content, remote in social milieu or geography from al-Tanūkhī's life, into the world of the compilation (3). These different uses show that frame narratives are not reliable markers of fictionality in the Faraj, and that they were not artificially affixed onto the Faraj's less plausible plots. Instead, they served different functions, introducing a wide variety of content and shaping the reception of stories by questioning their plausibility, yes, but also by exploiting and manipulating readers' expectations, and by pushing the limits of spaces and perspectives incorporated into the Faraj's overall message of deliverance after hardship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Event plausibility facilitates the processing of affirmative sentences, but little is known about how it affects negative sentences. In six behavioural experiments, we investigated negation's impact on the choice of sentence continuations that differ with respect to event plausibility. In a four-choice cloze task, participants saw affirmative and negative sentence fragments (The child will [not] eat the...) in combination with four potential continuations: yoghurt (a plausible word), shellfish (a weak world knowledge violating word), branch (a severe world knowledge violating word), and minivan (a word resulting in a semantic violation). Across all experiments the plausible word was highly preferred in both affirmative and negative sentences. Experiment 2 replicated Experiment 1 while ruling out the possibility that the lack of effect of negation in Experiment 1 stemmed from participants not fully processing the negation. Experiment 3 showed that the observed plausibility effects can be generalised to other aspectual forms (The child has [not] eaten the yoghurt). Experiment 4 ruled out the possibility that the choices were mainly driven by lexical associations and additionally suggested a role for informativity. Experiment 5 replicated Experiment 4 and reinforced the general pattern according to which negative sentences express the denial of plausible positive events. Experiment 6 provided evidence that informativity might be driving patterns of choices in the negative sentences. All in all, these findings suggest that upcoming continuations are chosen to maximise the plausibility of the event in the affirmative sentences and to deny that event in the negative sentences. The observed plausibility effects do not seem to be modulated by the internal representation of events, but they can be modulated by changes to the expected informativity of the sentence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to propose the application of the futures triangle as an organizing device for emplotting future-oriented narrative ecosystems and that the plausibility of a particular future can be explicitly reframed through a storytelling lens as the internal consistency of the story about the future. The paper draws on research on futures and storytelling, as well as the application of the futures triangle in academic and organizational settings beyond the traditional mapping phase of the six pillars. The paper then provides examples of applications of the futures triangle in three case study vignettes, as a method for surveying assumptions of change in narrative systems, audience reception in experiential futures stories or "sparks" and transition design stakeholder persona creation. The paper concludes by arguing that re-employing the futures triangle as an organizing device for contested story systems can support richer and more nuanced narratives about the future to emerge that are both plausible and challenge audiences and stakeholders by maintaining internal consistency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents an analysis and evaluation of what I call the "I'm not stupid" argument. This argument has ancient roots, which lie in Aristotle's famous description of the weak man's and strong man's arguments. An "I'm not stupid" argument is typically used in a context of accusation and defense, by a defendant who argues that they did not commit the act of which they have been accused. The analysis of this type of argument takes the shape of an argumentative pattern, which displays a full-fledged representation of its argumentation structure. It is based on a collection of ten contemporary instances of the "I'm not stupid" argument. Although ten instances constitute a small collection, the wide variation in the argumentative elements that they express explicitly or leave implicit made it possible to identify five new key premises in comparison with previous analyses of the weak man's and strong man's arguments (Walton, Tindale and Gordon 2014 in Argumentation 28:85–119, 2014; Walton 2019 in Argumentation 33:45–74, 2019). These new premises show that the crucial point of an evaluation of this argument is the arguer's supposedly rational character in making a gain-loss calculation. They also show that we need empirical data to strengthen our analyses of argument schemes and argumentation structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In society, there is often an 'official view' – a mainstream account – and alternatives to this view are seen as representing a disturbance and hampering this view's policy implementation. There is often considerable pressure to dismiss these alternatives. Reference to conspiracy theories is commonly used to ensure such dismissal. This paper discusses the issue of when an alternative hypothesis or theory can and should be dismissed. New insights are provided by taking a risk and uncertainty science perspective. This perspective clarifies the understanding of and relationships between fundamental concepts relevant to this discussion, such as plausibility, knowledge, uncertainty and probability (likelihood), and what are proper measurements and characterizations of these concepts. A set of criteria is developed to be used as a checklist for what aspects to consider when evaluating such alternatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, “3P” stands for possibility, plausibility, and probability, which indicate the progressive effects of prediction in research results. Advocating this 3P distinction, the author tries to showcase research as a spectrum of academic endeavor with varied objectives of prediction in research finding, on which arts-based research (ABR) bases its credibility on the possibilities it opens, apart from its aesthetic features. To open up possibilities through artistic endeavor, this author’s definition of ABR is a radical approach of diminishing knowledge processes that challenges the stereotypical norm that credible research is an accumulative and systematic knowledge-increasing process, as in the case of qualitative and quantitative research that takes plausibility or probability as its purpose. Through a critical review of the science history and by performing ABR, the author argues that ABR should be taken as a credible research method as long as it creates unprecedented possibility that is significant to human welfare and the progression of knowledge. It is also argued that, despite meeting the established criteria for credible research, a set of functional criteria for ABR as a methodology in its own right should be generated out of this awareness of 3P, in respect with the research purpose and matched methods.

Aim: We examined the ability to detect lying about opinions with the Devil’s Advocate Approach and Verifiability Approach. Method: Interviewees were first asked an opinion eliciting question to argue in favour of their alleged personal view. This was followed by a devil’s advocate question to argue against their alleged personal view. Since reasons that support rather than oppose an opinion are more readily available in people’s minds, we expected truth tellers’ responses to the opinion eliciting question to include more information and to sound more plausible, immediate, direct, and clear than their responses to the devil’s advocate question. In lie tellers these patterns were expected to be less pronounced. Interviewees were also asked to report sources that could be checked to verify their opinion. We expected truth tellers to report more verifiable sources than lie tellers. A total of 150 participants expressed their true or false opinions about a societal issue. Results: Supporting the hypothesis, the differences in plausibility, immediacy, directness, and clarity were more pronounced in truth tellers than in lie tellers (answers to eliciting opinion question sounded more plausible, immediate, direct, and clear than answers to the devil’s advocate question). Verifiable sources yielded no effect. Conclusions: The Devil’s Advocate Approach is a useful tool to detect lies about opinions.

Word co‐occurrence patterns in language corpora contain a surprising amount of conceptual knowledge. Large language models (LLMs), trained to predict words in context, leverage these patterns to achieve impressive performance on diverse semantic tasks requiring world knowledge. An important but understudied question about LLMs' semantic abilities is whether they acquire generalized knowledge of common events. Here, we test whether five pretrained LLMs (from 2018's BERT to 2023's MPT) assign a higher likelihood to plausible descriptions of agent−patient interactions than to minimally different implausible versions of the same event. Using three curated sets of minimal sentence pairs (total n = 1215), we found that pretrained LLMs possess substantial event knowledge, outperforming other distributional language models. In particular, they almost always assign a higher likelihood to possible versus impossible events (The teacher bought the laptop vs. The laptop bought the teacher). However, LLMs show less consistent preferences for likely versus unlikely events (The nanny tutored the boy vs. The boy tutored the nanny). In follow‐up analyses, we show that (i) LLM scores are driven by both plausibility and surface‐level sentence features, (ii) LLM scores generalize well across syntactic variants (active vs. passive constructions) but less well across semantic variants (synonymous sentences), (iii) some LLM errors mirror human judgment ambiguity, and (iv) sentence plausibility serves as an organizing dimension in internal LLM representations. Overall, our results show that important aspects of event knowledge naturally emerge from distributional linguistic patterns, but also highlight a gap between representations of possible/impossible and likely/unlikely events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]