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Quantum nonlocality would naturally fit into a version of relativity with a preferred reference system. However, acceptance of this idea has traditionally required experimental evidence. Namely, detecting in laboratory a small angular dependence of the velocity of light correlated to the cosmic motion of the Earth. Here, we summarize a new theoretical framework where the tiny, irregular residuals observed so far, from Michelson-Morley to current experiments of laser interferometry, can indeed be understood in terms of the Earth motion in the Cosmic Microwave Background observed directly with satellites in space. Our results, challenging the usual null interpretation, emphasize the central role of 'ether-drift' experiments for Relativity, Cosmology and Quantum Physics., Comment: 60 pages, 25 figures and 3 tables

Success in sports is a complex phenomenon that has only garnered limited research attention. In particular, we lack a deep scientific understanding of success in sports like tennis and the factors that contribute to it. Here, we study the unfolding of tennis players' careers to understand the role of early career stages and the impact of specific tournaments on players' trajectories. We employ a comprehensive approach combining network science and analysis of ATP tournament data and introduce a novel method to quantify tournament prestige based on the eigenvector centrality of the co-attendance network of tournaments. Focusing on the interplay between participation in central tournaments and players' performance, we find that the level of the tournament where players achieve their first win is associated with becoming a top player. This work sheds light on the critical role of the initial stages in the progression of players' careers, offering valuable insights into the dynamics of success in tennis., Comment: 15 pages, 6 figures, 8 supplementary pages, 8 supplementary figures

Individual sports competitions provide a natural setting for examining the relative importance of talent and luck/chance in achieving success. The belief that success is primarily due to individual abilities and hard work rather than external factors is particularly strong in this context. In this study, we test this belief using tennis as a case study, due to its popularity and competition structure in direct-elimination tournaments. Our dataset covers the decade 2010-2019 of main events in the ATP circuit and consists of tourney results and annual rankings for professional male players. After a preliminary data analysis, we introduce an agent-based model able to accurately simulate the tennis players' dynamics along several seasons. We show that, once calibrated on the dataset, the model is able to reproduce the main stylized facts observed in real data, including the results of single tournaments and the development of players' careers in the ATP community. The strength of our approach lies in its simplicity: it requires only one free parameter a to determine the importance of talent in scoring every single point: a = 1, if only talent matters; a = 0, if the outcome of each point is entirely due to chance. We find the best agreement between real data and simulation results when talent weights substantially less than luck, i.e. when a is between 0.20 and 0.30. A further comparison between data and simulations, based on the analysis of the direct networks of all the matches, confirms the previous finding. A posteriori, we notice that this surprisingly important role of chance in tennis tournaments is not an exception. On the contrary, it can be explained by a more general paradoxical effect that characterizes highly competitive environments, particularly in individual sports. In other words, when the difference in talent between top players is minimal, chance becomes determinant., Comment: 19 pages,17 figures

"Non-Locality is most naturally incorporated into a theory in which there is a special frame of reference. One possible candidate for this special frame of reference is the one in which the Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) is isotropic. However, other than the fact that a realistic interpretation of quantum mechanics requires a preferred frame and the CMB provides us with one, there is no readily apparent reason why the two should be linked" (L. Hardy). Starting from this remark we first argue that, given the present view of the vacuum, the basic tenets of Quantum Field Theory cannot guarantee that Einstein Special Relativity, with no preferred frame, is the physically realized version of relativity. Then, to try to understand the nature of the hypothetical preferred $\Sigma-$frame, we consider the so called ether-drift experiments, those precise optical measurements that try to detect in laboratory a small angular dependence of the two-way velocity of light and then to correlate this angular dependence with the direct CMB observations with satellites in space. By considering all experiments performed so far, from Michelson-Morley to the present experiments with optical resonators, and analyzing the small observed residuals in a modern theoretical framework, the long sought $\Sigma-$ frame tight to the CMB naturally emerges. Finally, if quantum non-locality reflects some effect propagating at vastly superluminal speed $v_{QI} \to \infty $, its ultimate origin could be hidden somewhere in the infinitely large speed $c_s \to \infty$ of the vacuum density fluctuations., Comment: Version accepted by MDPI for publication in Universe. 43 pages, 9 figures, 1 Table. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:2109.03047

In this paper we analyse the effects of information flows in cryptocurrency markets. We first define a cryptocurrency trading network, i.e. the network made using cryptocurrencies as nodes and the Granger causality among their weekly log returns as links, later we analyse its evolution over time. In particular, with reference to years 2020 and 2021, we study the logarithmic US dollar price returns of the cryptocurrency trading network using both pairwise and high-order statistical dependencies, quantified by Granger causality and O-information, respectively. With reference to the former, we find that it shows peaks in correspondence of important events, like e.g., Covid-19 pandemic turbulence or occasional sudden prices rise. The corresponding network structure is rather stable, across weekly time windows in the period considered and the coins are the most influential nodes in the network. In the pairwise description of the network, stable coins seem to play a marginal role whereas, turning high-order dependencies, they appear in the highest number of synergistic information circuits, thus proving that they play a major role for high order effects. With reference to redundancy and synergy with the time evolution of the total transactions in US dollars, we find that their large volume in the first semester of 2021 seems to have triggered a transition in the cryptocurrency network toward a more complex dynamical landscape. Our results show that pairwise and high-order descriptions of complex financial systems provide complementary information for cryptocurrency analysis.

The assessment of seismic risk in urban areas with high seismicity is certainly one of the most important problems that territorial managers have to face. A reliable evaluation of this risk is the basis for the design of both specific seismic improvement interventions and emergency management plans. Unappropriate seismic risk assessments may provide misleading results and induce bad decisions with relevant economic and social impact. The seismic risk in urban areas is mainly linked to three factors, namely, "hazard", "exposure" and "vulnerability". Hazard measures the potential of an earthquake to produce harm; exposure evaluates the amount of population exposed to harm; vulnerability represents the proneness of considered buildings to suffer damages in case of an earthquake. Estimates of such factors may not always coincide with the perceived risk of the resident population. The propensity to implement structural seismic improvement interventions aimed at reducing the vulnerability of buildings depends significantly on the perceived risk. This paper investigates on the difference between objective and perceived risk and highlights some critical issues. The aim of this study is to calibrate opportune policies, which allow addressing the most appropriate seismic risk mitigation options with reference to current levels of perceived risk. We propose the introduction of a Seismic Policy Prevention index (SPPi). This methodology is applied to a case-study focused on a densely populated district of the city of Catania (Italy)., Comment: 24 pages, 12 figures, 6 tables

The dominant CMB dipole anisotropy is a Doppler effect due to a particular motion of the solar system with velocity of 370 km/s. Since this derives from peculiar motions and local inhomogeneities, one could meaningfully consider a fundamental frame of rest $\Sigma$ associated with the Universe as a whole. From the group properties of Lorentz transformations, two observers, individually moving within $\Sigma$, would still be connected by the relativistic composition rules. But ultimate implications could be substantial. Physical interpretation is thus traditionally demanded to correlating some dragging of light observed in laboratory with the direct CMB observations. Today the small residuals, from Michelson-Morley to present experiments with optical resonators, are just considered instrumental artifacts. However, if the velocity of light in the interferometers is not the same parameter "c" of Lorentz transformations, nothing would prevent a non-zero dragging. Furthermore, observable effects would be much smaller than classically expected and most likely of irregular nature. We review an alternative reading of experiments which leads to remarkable correlations with the CMB observations. Notably, we explain the irregular $10^{-15}$ fractional frequency shift presently measured with optical resonators operating in vacuum and solid dielectrics. For integration times of about 1 second, and typical Central-Europe latitude, we also predict daily variations of the Allan variance in the range $(5\div12) \cdot 10^{-16}$., Comment: 43 pages, 13 figures, 3 tables

Mobility restriction is considered one of the main policies to contain COVID-10 spreading. However, there are multiple ways to reduce mobility via differentiated restrictions, and it is not easy to predict the actual impact on virus spreading. This is a limitation for policy-makers who need to implement effective and timely measures. Notwithstanding the big role of data analysis to understand this phenomenon, it is also important to have more general models capable of predicting the impact of different scenarios. Besides, they should be able to simulate scenarios in a disaggregated way, so to understand the possible impact of targeted strategies, e.g. on a geographical scale or in relation to other variables associated with the potential risk of infection. This paper presents an agent-based model (ABM) able to dynamically simulate the COVID-19 spreading under different mobility restriction scenarios. The model uses the Italian case study with its 20 administrative regions and considers parameters that can be attributed to the diffusion and lethality of the virus (based on a virus spread risk model) and population mobility patterns. The model is calibrated with real data and reproduces the impact that different mobility restrictions can have on the pandemic diffusion based on a combination of static and dynamic parameters. Results suggest that virus spreading would have been similar if differentiated mobility restriction strategies based on a-priori risk parameters instead of a national lockdown would have been put in place in Italy during the first wave of the pandemic. The proposed model could give useful suggestions for decision-makers to tackle pandemics and virus spreading at a strategic level., Comment: 16 pages, 7 figures, 4 tables

Nowadays, the increase in patient demand and the decline in resources are lengthening patient waiting times in many chemotherapy oncology departments. Therefore, enhancing healthcare services is necessary to reduce patient complaints. Reducing the patient waiting times in the oncology departments represents one of the main goals of healthcare manager. Simulation models are considered an effective tool for identifying potential ways to improve patient flow in oncology departments. This paper presents a new agent-based simulation model designed to be configurable and adaptable to the needs of oncology departments which have to interact with an external pharmacy. When external pharmacies are utilized, a courier service is needed to deliver the individual therapies from the pharmacy to the oncology department. An oncology department located in southern Italy was studied through the simulation model and different scenarios were compared with the aim of selecting the department configuration capable of reducing the patient waiting times., Comment: 40 pages, 3 figures, 7 tables

In this paper we present a simplified model of a proportional taxation system where citizens decide whether to pay taxes or evade them. We initially derive a dynamic equation for the fraction of evaders and then present both its critical points and equilibrium stable states for a well-mixed population and for a fixed audit probability. Our theoretical predictions consider different possible income distributions (homogeneous and heterogeneous), time-dependent audit probability and different possible social topologies, by means of selected complex network configurations. All derived results are validated and confirmed by extended Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, some policy implications aimed to reduce tax evasion are suggested, with regards to the tax and fine rates and the audit probability., Comment: 25 pages, 7 figures

Disease outbreaks force the governments to rapid decisions to deal with. However, the rapid stream of decision-making could be costly in terms of the democratic representativeness. The aim of the paper is to investigate the trade-off between pluralism of preferences and the time required to approach a decision. To this aim we develop and test a modified version of the Hegselmann and Krause (2002) model to capture these two characteristics of the decisional process in different institutional contexts. Using a twofold geometrical institutional setting, we simulate the impact of disease outbreaks to check whether countries exhibits idiosyncratic effects, depending on their institutional frameworks. Main findings show that the degree of pluralism in political decisions is not necessarily associated with worse performances in managing emergencies, provided that the political debate is mature enough., Comment: 30 pages, 10 figures, 4 tables

An innovative strategy for the optimal design of planar frames able to resist to seismic excitations is here proposed. The procedure is based on genetic algorithms (GA) which are performed according to a nested structure suitable to be implemented in parallel computing on several devices. In particular, this solution foresees two nested genetic algorithms. The first one, named "External GA", seeks, among a predefined list of profiles, the size of the structural elements of the frame which correspond to the most performing solution associated to the highest value of an appropriate fitness function. The latter function takes into account, among other considerations, of the seismic safety factor and the failure mode which are calculated by means of the second algorithm, named "Internal GA". The details of the proposed procedure are provided and applications to the seismic design of two frames of different size are described., Comment: 25 pages, 8 figures, 7 tables

This paper discusses the potential of the Internet of Things (IoT) paradigm in the context of assisted living for elderly and fragile people, in the light of the peculiar requirements of such users, both from a functional and a technological perspective. We stress some aspects that are often disregarded by the technical community, such as technology acceptability and usability, and we describe the framework and the phases of the current co-design approaches that imply the active involvement of the final users in the system design process. Thereby, we identify a series of design practices to merge technical and fragile people's requirements. The discussion is backed up by the description of DOMHO, a prototypal IoT-based AAL system that embodies most of the concepts described in the paper, and that is being deployed and tested in a shelter house for elders, and in an apartment for the co-housing of individuals with disabilities. Finally, we discuss the potential and limits of the current approaches and present some open challenges and future research directions.

In this study three soil ecosystems, that differ in the type of management, have been compared in the attempt to understand if and how anthropogenic action affects them. The structure of the corresponding food webs was analyzed and their robustness was calculated through the use of a dynamic model. With regard to the topology, it has been found that the structure of all three networks is small world. Furthermore, all three networks have a disassortative nature as expected for foodwebs. The values of the clustering coefficient, of the connectance and of the complexity, together with the calculation of the robustness suggest that the ecosystem related to a fallowed pastures with low pressure management is more robust than two ecosystems related to organic farms subject to middle intensity management. If the evidence suggested by this study was confirmed by further studies, the robustness shown by the networks could be useful for evaluating, from an ecological point of view, the sustainability of the agricultural practices to which the ecosystem is subject., Comment: 31 pages, 9 Figures

We propose a novel data-driven framework for assessing the a-priori epidemic risk of a geographical area and for identifying high-risk areas within a country. Our risk index is evaluated as a function of three different components: the hazard of the disease, the exposure of the area and the vulnerability of its inhabitants. As an application, we discuss the case of COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. We characterize each of the twenty Italian regions by using available historical data on air pollution, human mobility, winter temperature, housing concentration, health care density, population size and age. We find that the epidemic risk is higher in some of the Northern regions with respect to Central and Southern Italy. The corresponding risk index shows correlations with the available official data on the number of infected individuals, patients in intensive care and deceased patients, and can help explaining why regions such as Lombardia, Emilia-Romagna, Piemonte and Veneto have suffered much more than the rest of the country. Although the COVID-19 outbreak started in both North (Lombardia) and Central Italy (Lazio) almost at the same time, when the first cases were officially certified at the beginning of 2020, the disease has spread faster and with heavier consequences in regions with higher epidemic risk. Our framework can be extended and tested on other epidemic data, such as those on seasonal flu, and applied to other countries. We also present a policy model connected with our methodology, which might help policy-makers to take informed decisions., Comment: 39 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables

Limit analysis is a computationally efficient tool to assess the resistance and the failure mode of structures but does not provide any information on the displacement capacity, which is one of the concepts which most affects the seismic safety. Therefore, since many researchers did not consider limit analysis as a possible tool for the seismic assessment of structures, its widespread employment has been prevented. In this paper this common belief is questioned and the authors show that limit analysis can be useful in the evaluation of the seismic performance of frame structures. In particular, to overcome the limitation on the possibility to evaluate the displacements of a structure based on a limit analysis approach, an approximated capacity curve is reconstructed. The latter is based on a limit analysis strategy, which takes into account the second order effects, and evaluates the displacement capacity considering a post-peak softening branch and a threshold on the allowed plastic rotations. Then, based on this simplified capacity curve, an equivalent single degree of freedom system is defined in order to assess the seismic performance of frame structures. The proposed simplified strategy is implemented in a dedicated software and the obtained results are validated with well-established approaches based on nonlinear static analyses, showing the reliability and the computational efficiency of this methodology, Comment: 27 pages, 9 figures, 5 tables

We present a new way of estimation of the role of chance in achieving success, by comparing the empirical data from 100-meter dash competitions (one of the sports disciplines with the most stringent controls of external randomness), with the results of an agent-based computer model, which assumes that success depends jointly on the intrinsic talent of the agent and on unpredictable luck. We find a small, but non-zero contribution of random luck to the performance of the best sprinters, which may serve as a lower bound for the randomness role in other, less stringently controlled competitive domains. Additionally we discuss the perception of the payoff differences among the top participants, and the role of random luck in the resulting inequality., Comment: submitted for publication

While wealth distribution in the world is highly skewed and heavy-tailed, human talent - as the majority of individual features - is normally distributed. In a recent computational study by Pluchino et al [Talent vs luck: The role of randomness in success and failure, Adv. Complex Syst. 21 (03-04) (2018) 1850014], it has been shown that the combined effects of both random external factors (lucky and unlucky events) and multiplicative dynamics in capital accumulation are able to clarify this apparent contradiction. We introduce here a simplified version (STvL) of the original Talent versus Luck (TvL) model, where only lucky events are present, and verify that its dynamical rules lead to the same very large wealth inequality as the original model. We also derive some analytical approximations aimed to capture the mechanism responsible for the creation of such wealth inequality from a Gaussian-distributed talent. Under these approximations, our analysis is able to reproduce quite well the results of the numerical simulations of the simplified model in special cases. On the other hand, it also shows that the complexity of the model lies in the fact that lucky events are transformed into an increase of capital with heterogeneous rates, which yields a non-trivial generalization of the role of multiplicative processes in generating wealth inequality, whose fully generic case is still not amenable to analytical computations., Comment: 17 pages, 7 figures

In order to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a densely populated urban area, it would in principle be necessary to evaluate the dynamic behaviour of individual and aggregate buildings. These detailed seismic analyses, however, are extremely cost-intensive and require great processing time and expertise judgment. The aim of the present study is to propose a new methodology able to combine information and tools coming from different scientific fields in order to reproduce the effects of a seismic input in urban areas with known geological features and to estimate the entity of the damages caused on existing buildings. In particular, we present new software called ABES (Agent-Based Earthquake Simulator), based on a Self-Organized Criticality framework, which allows to evaluate the effects of a sequence of seismic events on a certain large urban area during a given interval of time. The integration of Geographic Information System (GIS) data sets, concerning both geological and urban information about the territory of Avola (Italy), allows performing a parametric study of these effects on a real context as a case study. The proposed new approach could be very useful in estimating the seismic vulnerability and defining planning strategies for seismic risk reduction in large urban areas, Comment: 22 pages, 13 figures, 4 Tables

Although interdisciplinarity is often touted as a necessity for modern research, the evidence on the relative impact of sectorial versus to interdisciplinary science is qualitative at best. In this paper we leverage the bibliographic data set of the American Physical Society to quantify the role of interdisciplinarity in physics, and that of talent and luck in achieving success in scientific careers. We analyze a period of 30 years (1980-2009) tagging papers and their authors by means of the Physics and Astronomy Classification Scheme (PACS), to show that some degree of interdisciplinarity is quite helpful to reach success, measured as a proxy of either the number of articles or the citations score. We also propose an agent-based model of the publication-reputation-citation dynamics reproduces the trends observed in the APS data set. On the one hand, the results highlight the crucial role of randomness and serendipity in real scientific research; on the other, they shed light on a counter-intuitive effect indicating that the most talented authors are not necessarily the most successful ones., Comment: 21 pages, 19 figures

We review recent numerical results on the role of talent and luck in getting success by means of a schematic agent-based model. In general the role of luck is found to be very relevant in order to get success, while talent is necessary but not sufficient. Funding strategies to improve the success of the most talented people are also discussed., Comment: 7 pages, 2 figures, talk presented at the Summer Solstice Conference 2018 on "Discrete models of complex systems", 25-27 June 2018, Gda\'nsk, Poland. To be published in Acta Physics Polonica B

This paper presents a simple agent-based model of an economic system, populated by agents playing different games according to their different view about social cohesion and tax payment. After a first set of simulations, correctly replicating results of existing literature, a wider analysis is presented in order to study the effects of a dynamic-adaptation rule, in which citizens may possibly decide to modify their individual tax compliance according to individual criteria, such as, the strength of their ethical commitment, the satisfaction gained by consumption of the public good and the perceived opinion of neighbors. Results show the presence of thresholds levels in the composition of society - between taxpayers and evaders - which explain the extent of damages deriving from tax evasion., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures

Demand Responsive Shared Transport DRST services take advantage of Information and Communication Technologies ICT, to provide on demand transport services booking in real time a ride on a shared vehicle. In this paper, an agent-based model ABM is presented to test different the feasibility of different service configurations in a real context. First results show the impact of route choice strategy on the system performance.

The largely dominant meritocratic paradigm of highly competitive Western cultures is rooted on the belief that success is due mainly, if not exclusively, to personal qualities such as talent, intelligence, skills, efforts or risk taking. Sometimes, we are willing to admit that a certain degree of luck could also play a role in achieving significant material success. But, as a matter of fact, it is rather common to underestimate the importance of external forces in individual successful stories. It is very well known that intelligence or talent exhibit a Gaussian distribution among the population, whereas the distribution of wealth - considered a proxy of success - follows typically a power law (Pareto law). Such a discrepancy between a Normal distribution of inputs, with a typical scale, and the scale invariant distribution of outputs, suggests that some hidden ingredient is at work behind the scenes. In this paper, with the help of a very simple agent-based model, we suggest that such an ingredient is just randomness. In particular, we show that, if it is true that some degree of talent is necessary to be successful in life, almost never the most talented people reach the highest peaks of success, being overtaken by mediocre but sensibly luckier individuals. As to our knowledge, this counterintuitive result - although implicitly suggested between the lines in a vast literature - is quantified here for the first time. It sheds new light on the effectiveness of assessing merit on the basis of the reached level of success and underlines the risks of distributing excessive honors or resources to people who, at the end of the day, could have been simply luckier than others. With the help of this model, several policy hypotheses are also addressed and compared to show the most efficient strategies for public funding of research in order to improve meritocracy, diversity and innovation., Comment: 28 pages, 14 figures, Accepted for publication in Advances in Complex Systems

Correlating ether-drift measurements in laboratory and CMB observations in space would confirm the existence of a preferred reference frame. To this end, however, the velocity of light in the interferometers cannot be the same parameter 'c' of Lorentz transformations. Thus, for the earth velocity of 370 km/s, a fundamental 10^(-15) light anisotropy, as presently observed in vacuum and in solid dielectrics, could reveal a 10^(-9) difference in the vacuum refractivity between an ideal freely-falling frame and an apparatus on the earth surface. In this perspective, the stochastic nature of the vacuum could explain the irregular character of the signal and the substantial reduction of its statistical average (10^(-18) or smaller). For the same v=370 km/s the different refractivity, about 10^(-4) and 10^(-5) for air or helium at atmospheric pressure, could also explain the observed anisotropy, respectively about 10^(-10) and 10^(-11). The mechanism enhancing the signal in gaseous matter, but ineffective in solid dielectrics, is naturally identified in a non-local, temperature gradient of a fraction of millikelvin. This is found in all classical experiments and might ultimately reflect the CMB temperature dipole or the fundamental energy flow in a Lorentz-non-invariant vacuum. Clarification requires dedicated experiments and improvements in the data analysis., Comment: 43 pages, 8 figures, 3 tables; version accepted for publication in EPJ Plus

In this paper we discuss the problems of modern representative democracy and we look at the selection of legislators by lot as a way to tame some of the drawbacks of that system. It is recalled at the beginning that resorting to sortition for the selection of public officers used to be a popular way of taming factionalism in public affairs. Factionalism is assumed to be detrimental to public affairs as public officers may favour their own faction (a tribe or a party) instead of pursuing the general interest. Moreover they tend to overinvest in strengthening their power, thus engaging in power struggles with opposing factions, unlikely to benefit society. In this respect we present a new mathematical model aiming at describing a more efficient parliament where sortition is brought to bear. It will be shown that starting from a parliament working with two parties (or coalitions), where the costs of representative democracy are quite apparent through the detrimental effects of party discipline, one can beneficially move towards a parliament where independent legislators, randomly selected from the population of constituents, sit alongside elected members who belong to a party and are subjected to party discipline. The paper shows that increasing the number of independent legislators up to a point enhances the efficiency of the parliament and puts into check the factionalism likely to arise from party discipline., Comment: 26 pages, 13 figures

In this paper a procedure for the dynamic identification of damage in spatial Timoshenko arches is presented. The proposed approach is based on the calculation of an arbitrary number of exact eigen-properties of a damaged spatial arch by means of the Wittrick and Williams algorithm. The proposed damage model considers a reduction of the volume in a part of the arch, and is therefore suitable, differently than what is commonly proposed in the main part of the dedicated literature, not only for concentrated cracks but also for diffused damaged zones which may involve a loss of mass. Different damage scenarios can be taken into account with variable location, intensity and extension of the damage as well as number of damaged segments. An optimization procedure, aiming at identifying which damage configuration minimizes the difference between its eigen-properties and a set of measured modal quantities for the structure, is implemented making use of genetic algorithms. In this context, an initial random population of chromosomes, representing different damage distributions along the arch, is forced to evolve towards the fittest solution. Several applications with different, single or multiple, damaged zones and boundary conditions confirm the validity and the applicability of the proposed procedure even in presence of instrumental errors on the measured data., Comment: 34 pages, 19 figures

The analysis of the seismic vulnerability of urban centres has received a great attention in the last century. In order to estimate the seismic vulnerability of a densely populated urban area, it would in principle be necessary to develop in-depth analyses for predicting the dynamic behaviour of the individual buildings and their structural aggregation. Such analyses, however, are extremely cost-intensive, require great processing time and above all expertise judgement. It is therefore very useful to define simplified rules for estimating the seismic vulnerability of whole urban areas. In the last decades, the Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) scenario has gained increasing credibility as a mathematical framework for explaining a large number of naturally occurring extreme events, from avalanches to earthquakes dynamics, from bubbles and crises in financial markets to the extinction of species in the evolution or the behaviour of human brain activity. All these examples show the intrinsic tendency common to many phenomena to spontaneously organize into a dynamical critical state, whose signature is the presence of a power law behaviour in the frequency distribution of events. In this context, the Olami-Feder- Christensen (OFC) model, introduced in 1992, has played a key role in modelling earthquakes phenomenology. The aim of the present paper is proposing an agent-based model of earthquake dynamics, based on the OFC self- organized criticality framework, in order to evaluate the effects of a critical sequence of seismic events on a given large urban area during a given interval of time. The further integration of a GIS database within a software environment for agent-based simulations, will allow to perform a preliminary parametric study of these effects on real datasets. The model could be useful for defining planning strategies for seismic risk reduction, Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures

In this paper we study the impact of news media and public surveys on the electoral campaigns for political competitions. We present an agent-based model that addresses the effective influence of surveys in orienting the opinions of voters before elections. The dynamics of electoral consensus is studied as a function of time by investigating different possible scenarios and the effect of periodic surveys, on the opinions of a small community of voters represented as a network of agents connected by realistic social relationships. Our simulations show the possibility to manage opinion consensus in electoral competitions., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures

Significant research contributions and Directives approach the issue of the insertion of renewable-based energy systems on urban territory in order to face with the growing energy needs of citizens. The introduction of such systems gives raise to installers to both satisfy their energy demands and distribute eventual energy excesses to close neighbours. This paper presents a multi-layer agent-based computational model that simulates multiple event of the network of the energy distribution occurring within urban areas. The model runs on the NetLogo platform and aims at elaborating the most suitable strategy when dealing with the design of a network of energy distribution. Experimental data are discussed on the basis of two main scenarios within an operating period of 24 hours. Scenarios consider both the variation of the percentages of installers of renewable-based energy systems and the distance along which energy exchanges occur., Comment: 22 pages, 15 figures

This paper studies the inverse problem related to the identification of the flexural stiffness of an Euler Bernoulli beam in order to reconstruct its profile starting from available response data. The proposed identification procedure makes use of energy measurements and is based on the application of a closed form solution for the static displacements of multi-stepped beams. This solution allows to easily calculate the energy related to beams modeled with arbitrary multi-step shapes subjected to a transversal roving force, and to compare it with the correspondent data obtained through direct measurements on real beams. The optimal solution which minimizes the difference between measured and calculated data is then sought by means of genetic algorithms. In the paper several different stepped beams are investigated showing that the proposed procedure allows in many cases to identify the exact beam profile. However it is shown that in some other cases different multi-step profiles may correspond to very similar static responses, and therefore to comparable minima in the optimization problem, thus complicating the profile identification problem., Comment: 27 pages, 7 figures, 6 tables

This paper presents an automatic approach for the evaluation of the plastic load and failure modes of planar frames. The method is based on the generation of elementary collapse mechanisms and on their linear combination aimed at minimizing the collapse load factor. The minimization procedure is efficiently performed by means of genetic algorithms which allow to compute an approximate collapse load factor, and the correspondent failure mode, with sufficient accuracy in a very short computing time. A user-friendly original software in the agent-based programming language Netlogo, here employed for the first time with structural engineering purposes, has been developed showing its great versatility and advantages. Many applications have been performed both with reference to the classical plastic analysis approach, in which all the loads increase proportionally, and with a seismic point of view considering a system of horizontal forces whose magnitude increases while the vertical loads are assumed to be constant. In this latter case a parametric study has been performed aiming at evaluating the influence of some geometric, mechanical and load distribution parameters on the ultimate collapse load of planar frames., Comment: 35 pages, 20 figures

We introduce a new Self-Organized Criticality (SOC) model for simulating price evolution in an artificial financial market, based on a multilayer network of traders. The model also implements, in a quite realistic way with respect to previous studies, the order book dy- namics, by considering two assets with variable fundamental prices. Fat tails in the probability distributions of normalized returns are observed, together with other features of real financial markets., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures

We address the problem of a participatory decision-making process where a shared priority list of alternatives has to be obtained while avoiding inconsistent decisions. An agent-based model (ABM) is proposed to mimic this process in different social networks of stakeholders who interact according to an opinion dynamics model. Simulations' results show the efficacy of interaction in finding a transitive and, above all, shared decision. These findings are in agreement with real participation experiences regarding transport planning decisions and can give useful suggestions on how to plan an effective participation process for sustainable policy-making based on opinion consensus., Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, 1 table

We present a simple order book mechanism that regulates an artificial financial market with self-organized criticality dynamics and fat tails of returns distribution. The model shows the role played by individual imitation in determining trading decisions, while fruitfully replicates typical aggregate market behavior as the "self-fulfilling prophecy". We also address the role of random traders as a possible decentralized solution to dampen market fluctuations., Comment: 18 pages, 10 figures