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Abstract The Icelandic Meteorological Office maintains a national network of webcams designed and built in house for environmental monitoring. During the 2021 Fagradalsfjall eruption these cameras, along with a temporary near-field network of commercial cameras installed by the Department of Civil Protection and Emergency Management, were used to estimate the height of the $$SO_2$$ S O 2 plume and lava fountain. Here we present the webcam designs, the techniques used to calibrate them, and the messaging system and web interface that allow near real time measurements to be made from the images. With this system we were able to make estimates of heights with an accuracy on the order of tens to a few hundreds of meters with a lag typically of five to ten minutes at up to ten minute intervals when weather conditions were favorable. The plume heights were then used to constrain the performance of the $$SO_2$$ S O 2 dispersion model used for air quality forecasts while fountain heights were used to delineate danger zones where visitors at the eruption site were in danger of being hit by ballistic clasts.

The mass eruption rate (MER) of an explosive volcanic eruption is a commonly used quantifier of the magnitude of the eruption, and estimating it is important in managing volcanic hazards. The physical connection between the MER and the rise height of the eruption column results in a scaling relationship between these quantities, allowing one to be inferred from the other. Eruption source parameter datasets have been used to calibrate the relationship, but the uncertainties in the measurements used in the calibration are typically not accounted for in applications. This can lead to substantial over- or under-estimation. Here we apply a simple Bayesian approach to incorporate uncertainty into the calibration of the scaling relationship using Bayesian linear regression to determine probability density functions for model parameters. This allows probabilistic prediction of mass eruption rate given a plume height observation in a way that is consistent with the data used for calibration. By using non-informative priors, the posterior predictive distribution can be determined analytically. The methods and datasets are collected in a python package, called merph. We illustrate their use in sampling plausible MER—plume height pairs, and in identifying usual eruptions. We discuss applications to ensemble-based hazard assessments and potential developments of the approach. • A Bayesian linear regression is applied to eruption source parameter datasets. • Inference of mass eruption rate from plume height can be obtained with a quantification of uncertainty. • Analytical forms for the Posterior Predictive distributions facilitate analysis and sampling. • Observational uncertainty can be included in prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract At many volcano observatories, measurements of the plume height are frequently applied. On the other hand, the recent development of the satellite measurements enables the monitoring of the SO2 mass emitted by the passive degassing at sufficient temporal resolution. Using these two techniques, this study focuses on the degassing activity before the 8 October 2016 phreatomagmatic eruption of Aso volcano, Japan. Here we show the temporal variations of the plume height, the SO2 mass, and ground-based SO2 flux during 6 months before the eruption. Our result shows similar temporal changes of them, especially for the maxima and the increase, respectively, in about 2 months and 6 days before the eruption. This result indicates that the degassing system had been stable during the whole study period, but the accumulation of volcanic gas in the conduit since August might trigger the phreatomagmatic eruption. These techniques can be sufficient to monitor the degassing activity and to detect its precursory change.

We present three‐dimensional numerical simulations of eruption clouds from circular to linear fissure vents to investigate the control of vent shape on the height and stability of volcanic plumes during large explosive eruptions. Our results show that clouds ejected from circular or low‐aspect‐ratio (nearly square‐like) fissure vents can be associated with radially suspended flow (RSF) at the top of the jet region, whereas those emitted from narrow‐fissure vents are not. Non‐RSF plumes are more stable than those associated with RSF because the highly concentrated parts of the ejected mixture are easily dissipated and mixed with air near the vent. Plume height in the RSF regime decreases while that in the non‐RSF regime increases with increasing aspect ratio, even for a fixed magma flow rate. These observations suggest that the efficiency of air entrainment is influenced by the vent shape, which in turn controls the dynamics of eruption plumes. Plain Language Summary: Explosive volcanic eruptions eject hot mixtures of gas and ash, forming eruption clouds. Eruption clouds can either become buoyant and rise upward as kilometer‐scale volcanic plumes, from which they release ash and gas into the atmosphere, or flow downward along the ground, resulting in devastating pyroclastic flows. Understanding the dynamics of eruption clouds and the critical conditions for generating pyroclastic flows versus volcanic plumes is an important focus of modern volcanology research. We present numerical simulations of eruption clouds using a three‐dimensional numerical model to investigate the effects of volcanic vent geometry on plume stability and height. Our simulation results indicate that plume height depends on the shape of the volcanic vent and can have different dynamics even for the same eruption intensity. These effects of vent shape are caused by the complex mechanism of mixing between the eruption cloud and the ambient air. The efficiency of such mixing inside the cloud largely controls the critical conditions for the generation of pyroclastic flows; above a critical mass flow rate, clouds ejected from circular vents can generate pyroclastic flows, whereas those ejected from thin fissure vents develop stable volcanic plumes. Key Points: Three‐dimensional numerical simulations reveal the effects of volcanic vent shape on plume stability and plume heightPlumes from narrow fissures are more stable than those from circular vents owing to more efficient dissipation mechanisms near the ventPlume height has complex dependency on vent aspect ratio because of changes in the efficiency of air entrainment [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the Central Andes, large Plinian eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index ≥ 5) occur at a relatively high frequency, i.e. average one every 2000 to 4000 years over the past 50,000 years in Peru. Such recurring explosive activity represents a significant challenge for regions typically hosting several million people (e.g. Southern Peru, Western Bolivia and Northern Chile). With VEI 6, the 1600 CE Huaynaputina eruption is considered the largest historical eruption in South America. We have re-examined the first Plinian phase of this eruption in order to better assess critical eruption source parameters (i.e. erupted volume, plume height, mass eruption rate, eruption duration).The revised bulk volume of the tephra-fall deposit associated with the Plinian phase is approximately 13–14 km3, almost twice the previous estimate (7–8 km3 within the 1 cm isopach) based on methods including power law, Weibull function and Bayesian linear regression. Tephra was dispersed by strong winds to the WNW as far as 400 km on Peruvian territory and then in the Pacific Ocean. Seven villages were buried, killing ~ 1500 people. The revised plume height estimate, 32.2 ± 2.5 km, is consistent with the early estimations. As a result, the Huaynaputina 1600 CE first eruption phase lies in the upper part of the Plinian field close to the ultra-Plinian transition, making this event one of the largest in the past millennium which coincides with results from recent studies on palaeoclimatic impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-sensor strategies are key to the real-time determination of eruptive source parameters (ESPs) of explosive eruptions necessary to forecast accurately both tephra dispersal and deposition. To explore the capacity of these strategies in various eruptive conditions, we analyze data acquired by two Doppler radars, ground- and satellite-based infrared sensors, one infrasound array, visible video-monitoring cameras as well as data from tephra-fallout deposits associated with a weak and a strong paroxysmal event at Mount Etna (Italy). We find that the different sensors provide complementary observations that should be critically analyzed and combined to provide comprehensive estimates of ESPs. First, all measurements of plume height agree during the strong paroxysmal activity considered, whereas some discrepancies are found for the weak paroxysm due to rapid plume and cloud dilution. Second, the event duration, key to convert the total erupted mass (TEM) in the mass eruption rate (MER) and vice versa, varies depending on the sensor used, providing information on different phases of the paroxysm (i.e., unsteady lava fountaining, lava fountain-fed tephra plume, waning phase associated with plume and cloud expansion in the atmosphere). As a result, TEM and MER derived from different sensors also correspond to the different phases of the paroxysms. Finally, satellite retrievals for grain-size can be combined with radar data to provide a first approximation of total grain-size distribution (TGSD) in near real-time. Such a TGSD shows a promising agreement with the TGSD derived from the combination of satellite data and whole deposit grain-size distribution (WDGSD).

Biofilm formation is a dynamic process that leads to mature communities over time. Despite a general knowledge of biofilm community formation and the resultant limitations of antibiotic therapy, there is a paucity of data describing specific plume heights, surface coverage and rates of maturation. Furthermore, little is published on the effect that the broth medium might have on the degree of biofilm maturation. In this study, three strains of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) (USA300, USA400 and a clinical isolate) were grown in brain heart infusion broth (BHI) or tryptic soy broth (TSB). Following growth, SEM images were captured for 3-D analysis to assess plume height. TSB produced significantly higher plume heights of USA300 and USA400 compared to BHI. Broth type was less influential on the clinical isolate. The data indicate that broth type and time may be important factors to consider when assessing maturation and plume height formation of MRSA biofilms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Plume height is an important parameter routinely used to characterize and classify explosive eruptions. Though the strategies to estimate key eruption source parameters such as erupted volume and mass flow rate have evolved over the past few decades, the determination of plume height of past eruptions is still mostly based on empirical approaches that do not account for the new developments in plume modelling based on the interaction of plume and wind. Here we present a revised strategy for the retrieval of plume height from field data that accounts for key aspects of plume dynamics and particle sedimentation, which include: i) the effect of wind advection on the buoyant plume, ii) a new parameterization of the gravitational spreading of the umbrella cloud for distances smaller than the radius of the plume, iii) the effect of particle shape on particle sedimentation, iv) the effect of different atmospheric profiles in different climate zones, v) three-dimensional wind, temperature and pressure data, and vi) topography. In particular, as wind can affect the dynamics and height of the plume, new computed sedimentation patterns are more complex and result in non-linear relationships between downwind and crosswind deposition. Our method is tested against observations of the 2011 eruption of Shinmoedake (Japan), the 1980 eruption of Mount St Helens (USA), and the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo (Philippines). These are well-constrained examples of small, intermediate, and high intensity eruptions, respectively. Intensity scenarios are introduced to account for the non-unique relation between plume height and particle sedimentation resulting from wind advection of volcanic plumes. We further demonstrate that needle-like and disk-like particle shapes can have downwind distances 36 to 70% larger than the equivalent spheres. In addition, we find that the effect of latitude on the determination of plume height is more significant for low and intermediate intensity scenarios with a discrepancy between 7 and 20%. Highlights • A new revised numerical strategy for the determination of plume height is presented. • Accounting for wind, particle shape, gravitational spreading and climate zone. • Wind significantly affects the clast support envelope of weak and transitional plumes. • The new method is available through a Matlab package and a series of nomograms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For the prediction of the ventilation rate for removing the non-isothermal concentrated fume from the semi-enclosed space, the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was done. Securing the proper ventilation conditions in emergency state such as in fire is crucial factor for the protection of the resident in the space. In the analysis for the determining the proper ventilation rate, the experimental study had the limitation for simulating the versatile conditions of fume development. The theoretical and computational method had been chosen as the alternate tool for the experimental analysis. In this study, the CFD analysis was done on the defined model which already had been done the experimental analysis by the previous workers. By comparing the prediction on the plume heights and the ventilation rates by the CFD analysis at, and in the parametric model of 1 m³ with those of the previous experimental works, the feasibility of the computational analysis was evaluated. For the required ventilation rate analyzed by the CFD analysis was over predicted in 7.1% difference with that of the experimental results depending on the different plume height. With the comparison with the analytical Zukoski model at, the CFD analysis on the ventilation was under predicted in 8.3%. By the verification of the feasibility of the CFD analysis, the extended analysis was done for getting the extra information such as the water vapor distribution and CO2 distribution in the semi-enclosed spaces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Volcanic eruptions represent a significant source of atmospheric aerosols and can display local, regional and global effects, impacting earth systems and human populations. In order to assess the relative impacts of these events, accurate plume injection altitude measurements are needed. In this work, volcanic plumes generated from seven Kamchatka Peninsula volcanoes (Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi, Bezymianny, Tolbachik, Kizimen, Karymsky and Zhupanovsky), were identified using over 16 years of Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) measurements. Eighty-eight volcanic plumes were observed by MISR, capturing 3–25% of reported events at individual volcanoes. Retrievals were most successful where eruptive events persisted over a period of weeks to months. Compared with existing ground and airborne observations, and alternative satellite-based reports compiled by the Global Volcanism Program (GVP), MISR plume height retrievals show general consistency; the comparison reports appear to be skewed towards the region of highest concentration observed in MISR-constrained plume vertical extent. The report observations display less discrepancy with MISR toward the end of the analysis period (2013–2016), with improvements in the suborbital data likely the result of the deployment of new instrumentation. Conversely, the general consistency of MISR plume heights with conventionally reported observations supports the use of MISR in the ongoing assessment of volcanic activity globally, especially where ground-based observations are unavailable. Differences between the northern (Shiveluch, Kliuchevskoi, Bezymianny and Tolbachik) and southern (Kizimen, Karymsky and Zhupanovsky) volcanoes broadly corresponding to the Central Kamchatka Depression (CKD) and Eastern Volcanic Front (EVF) geological sub-regions of Kamchatka, respectively, are distinguished by varying magma composition. For example, by comparison with reanalysis-model simulations of local meteorological conditions, CKD plumes were generally less constrained by mid-tropospheric (< 6 km) layers of vertical stability above the boundary layer, suggesting that these eruptions were more energetic than those in the EVF region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) instrument aboard the Terra satellite acquires imagery at 275-m resolution at nine angles ranging from 0° (nadir) to 70° off-nadir. This multi-angle capability facilitates the stereoscopic retrieval of heights and motion vectors for clouds and aerosol plumes. MISR’s operational stereo product uses this capability to retrieve cloud heights and winds for every satellite orbit, yielding global coverage every nine days. The MISR INteractive eXplorer (MINX) visualization and analysis tool complements the operational stereo product by providing users the ability to retrieve heights and winds locally for detailed studies of smoke, dust and volcanic ash plumes, as well as clouds, at higher spatial resolution and with greater precision than is possible with the operational product or with other space-based, passive, remote sensing instruments. This ability to investigate plume geometry and dynamics is becoming increasingly important as climate and air quality studies require greater knowledge about the injection of aerosols and the location of clouds within the atmosphere. MINX incorporates features that allow users to customize their stereo retrievals for optimum results under varying aerosol and underlying surface conditions. This paper discusses the stereo retrieval algorithms and retrieval options in MINX, and provides appropriate examples to explain how the program can be used to achieve the best results.