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Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are the gold standard to establish the benefit-risk ratio of novel drugs. However, the evaluation of mature results often takes many years. We hypothesized that the addition of Bayesian inference methods at interim analysis time points might accelerate and enforce the knowledge that such trials may generate. In order to test that hypothesis, we retrospectively applied a Bayesian approach to the HOVON 132 trial, in which 800 newly diagnosed AML patients aged 18 to 65 years were randomly assigned to a “7 + 3” induction with or without lenalidomide. Five years after the first patient was recruited, the trial was negative for its primary endpoint with no difference in event-free survival (EFS) between experimental and control groups (hazard ratio [HR] 0.99, p = 0.96) in the final conventional analysis. We retrospectively simulated interim analyses after the inclusion of 150, 300, 450, and 600 patients using a Bayesian methodology to detect early lack of efficacy signals. The HR for EFS comparing the lenalidomide arm with the control treatment arm was 1.21 (95% CI 0.81–1.69), 1.05 (95% CI 0.86–1.30), 1.00 (95% CI 0.84–1.19), and 1.02 (95% CI 0.87–1.19) at interim analysis 1, 2, 3 and 4, respectively. Complete remission rates were lower in the lenalidomide arm, and early deaths more frequent. A Bayesian approach identified that the probability of a clinically relevant benefit for EFS (HR < 0.76, as assumed in the statistical analysis plan) was very low at the first interim analysis (1.2%, 0.6%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively). Similar observations were made for low probabilities of any benefit regarding CR. Therefore, Bayesian analysis significantly adds to conventional methods applied for interim analysis and may thereby accelerate the performance and completion of phase III trials.

Background: We recently reported results of the prospective, open-label HOVON-100 trial in 334 adult patients with acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) randomized to first-line treatment with or without clofarabine (CLO). No improvement of event-free survival (EFS) was observed, while a higher proportion of patients receiving CLO obtained minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity. Aim: In order to investigate the effects of CLO in more depth, two multi-state models were developed to identify why CLO did not show a long-term survival benefit despite more MRD-negativity. Methods: The first model evaluated the effect of CLO on going off-protocol (not due to refractory disease/relapse, completion or death) as a proxy of severe treatment-related toxicity, while the second model evaluated the effect of CLO on obtaining MRD negativity. The subsequent impact of these intermediate events on death or relapsed/refractory disease was assessed in both models. Results: Overall, patients receiving CLO went off-protocol more frequently than control patients (35/168 [21%] vs. 18/166 [11%], p = 0.019; HR 2.00 [1.13–3.52], p = 0.02), especially during maintenance (13/44 [30%] vs. 6/56 [11%]; HR 2.85 [95%CI 1.08–7.50], p = 0.035). Going off-protocol was, however, not associated with more relapse or death. Patients in the CLO arm showed a trend towards an increased rate of MRD-negativity compared with control patients (HR MRD-negativity: 1.35 [0.95–1.91], p = 0.10), which did not translate into a significant survival benefit. Conclusion: We conclude that the intermediate states, i.e., going off-protocol and MRD-negativity, were affected by adding CLO, but these transitions were not associated with subsequent survival estimates, suggesting relatively modest antileukemic activity in ALL.

Background: Studies on serially measured GDF-15 (growth differentiation factor 15) in acute heart failure (HF) are limited. Moreover, several pathophysiological pathways contribute to HF. Therefore, we aimed to explore the (additional) prognostic value of serially measured GDF-15 using a multi-marker approach to more accurately predict HF risk. Methods: TRIUMPH (Translational Initiative on Unique and Novel Strategies for Management of Patients With Heart Failure) is a prospective cohort of 496 patients with acute HF who were enrolled in 14 hospitals in the Netherlands between 2009 and 2014. Blood sampling was scheduled at 7 moments during 1-year follow-up. GDF-15, NT-proBNP (N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide), ST2 (suppression of tumorigenicity 2), galectin-3, troponin I, and creatinine were measured in a central laboratory. We associated repeated measurements of these biomarkers with the composite primary end point of all-cause mortality and HF rehospitalization, using multivariable joint modeling. Results: Median age was 74 years, and 37% were women. Median baseline GDF-15 was 4632 pg/mL. The primary end point was reached in 188 (40%) patients. The average estimated GDF-15 level increased weeks before the primary end point was reached. The hazard ratio per 1 SD difference in log-GDF-15 was 2.14 (95% CI, 1.78-2.57) unadjusted, 1.96 (1.49-2.53) after adjustment for clinical confounders and 1.44 (1.05-1.91) when jointly modeled with all biomarkers. The adjusted HRs for NT-proBNP were 2.38 (1.78-3.33) and 1.52 (1.15-2.08), respectively. The multimarker model combining GDF-15, NT-proBNP, and troponin I provided a favorable risk discrimination (area under the curve=0.785). Conclusions: Sequentially measured GDF-15 independently and dynamically predicts risk of adverse outcomes during 1-year follow-up after index admission for acute HF. NT-proBNP remains a robust predictor among potential candidates.

This pre-specified analysis of DAPA-CKD assessed the impact of sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibition on abrupt declines in kidney function in high-risk patients based on having chronic kidney disease (CKD) and substantial albuminuria. DAPA-CKD was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial that had a median follow-up of 2.4 years. Adults with CKD (urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio 200-5000 mg/g and estimated glomerular filtration rate 25-75 mL/min/1.73m2) were randomized to dapagliflozin 10 mg/day matched to placebo (2152 individuals each). An abrupt decline in kidney function was defined as a pre-specified endpoint of doubling of serum creatinine between two subsequent study visits. We also assessed a post-hoc analysis of investigator-reported acute kidney injury-related serious adverse events. Doubling of serum creatinine between two subsequent visits (median time-interval 100 days) occurred in 63 (2.9%) and 91 (4.2%) participants in the dapagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively (hazard ratio 0.68 [95% confidence interval 0.49, 0.94]). Accounting for the competing risk of mortality did not alter our findings. There was no heterogeneity in the effect of dapagliflozin on abrupt declines in kidney function based on baseline subgroups. Acute kidney injury-related serious adverse events were not significantly different and occurred in 52 (2.5%) and 69 (3.2%) participants in the dapagliflozin and placebo groups, respectively (0.77 [0.54, 1.10]). Thus, in patients with CKD and substantial albuminuria, dapagliflozin reduced the risk of abrupt declines in kidney function., HJLH and DC are co-primary authors. The DAPA-CKD Trial Committees and Investigators are listed in the Appendix.

The study objective was to analyze survival and incidence of Fontan completion of patients with single-ventricle and concomitant unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect. Data from 4 Dutch and 3 Belgian institutional databases were retrospectively collected. A total of 151 patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect were selected; 36 patients underwent an atrioventricular valve procedure (valve surgery group). End points were survival, incidence of Fontan completion, and freedom from atrioventricular valve reoperation. Median follow-up was 13.4 years. Cumulative survival was 71.2%, 70%, and 68.5% at 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. An atrioventricular valve procedure was not a risk factor for mortality. Patients with moderate-severe or severe atrioventricular valve regurgitation at echocardiographic follow-up had a significantly worse 15-year survival (58.3%) compared with patients with no or mild regurgitation (89.2%) and patients with moderate regurgitation (88.6%) (P = .033). Cumulative incidence of Fontan completion was 56.5%, 71%, and 77.6% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. An atrioventricular valve procedure was not associated with the incidence of Fontan completion. In the valve surgery group, freedom from atrioventricular valve reoperation was 85.7% at 1 year and 52.6% at 5 years. The long-term survival and incidence of Fontan completion in our study were better than previously described for patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect. A concomitant atrioventricular valve procedure did not increase the mortality rate or decrease the incidence of Fontan completion, whereas patients with moderate-severe or severe valve regurgitation at follow-up had a worse survival. Therefore, in patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect when atrioventricular valve regurgitation exceeds a moderate degree, the atrioventricular valve should be repaired.

Aims The relation between non-cardiac comorbidities and health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in patients with heart failure (HF) has been studied to a limited extent. To investigate the HRQoL and their determinants among HF patients with and without comorbidities. Methods and results TRIUMPH (TRanslational Initiative on Unique and novel strategies for Management of Patients with Heart failure) is a Dutch prospective, multicentre study enrolling 496 acute HF patients between 2009 and 2014. We included 334 patients who had completed the HRQoL questionnaires at baseline. The HRQoL was measured by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) en EuroQuality-of-life five Dimensions (EQ-5D). Comorbidity was defined as having a history of at least one of the following comorbidities: chronic kidney disease, diabetes mellitus, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), and/or cerebrovascular accident. Patients with comorbidity (n = 205, 61%) had lower scores on the physical limitation scale and clinical summary score of the KCCQ (P = 0.03 and P = 0.01, respectively). Female sex, COPD, previous HF, increasing body mass index (BMI), elevated N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high systolic blood pressure, and the presence of anxiety and/or depression negatively influenced the HRQoL among HF patients with comorbidity. Besides anxiety and depression, we hardly found any other determinant of HRQoL in patients without comorbidity. Conclusion Heart failure patients without comorbidity had better HRQoL than patients with comorbidity. Sex, previous HF, BMI, COPD, systolic blood pressure, NT-proBNP levels, and also anxiety and depression were determinants of HRQoL in patients with comorbidity. In those without comorbidity, apart from anxiety and depression, no further determinants of HRQoL were found.

Objective: The study objective was to analyze survival and incidence of Fontan completion of patients with single-ventricle and concomitant unbalanced atrioventricular septal defect. Methods: Data from 4 Dutch and 3 Belgian institutional databases were retrospectively collected. A total of 151 patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect were selected; 36 patients underwent an atrioventricular valve procedure (valve surgery group). End points were survival, incidence of Fontan completion, and freedom from atrioventricular valve reoperation. Results: Median follow-up was 13.4 years. Cumulative survival was 71.2%, 70%, and 68.5% at 10, 15, and 20 years, respectively. An atrioventricular valve procedure was not a risk factor for mortality. Patients with moderate-severe or severe atrioventricular valve regurgitation at echocardiographic follow-up had a significantly worse 15-year survival (58.3%) compared with patients with no or mild regurgitation (89.2%) and patients with moderate regurgitation (88.6%) (P = .033). Cumulative incidence of Fontan completion was 56.5%, 71%, and 77.6% at 5, 10, and 15 years, respectively. An atrioventricular valve procedure was not associated with the incidence of Fontan completion. In the valve surgery group, freedom from atrioventricular valve reoperation was 85.7% at 1 year and 52.6% at 5 years. Conclusions: The long-term survival and incidence of Fontan completion in our study were better than previously described for patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect. A concomitant atrioventricular valve procedure did not increase the mortality rate or decrease the incidence of Fontan completion, whereas patients with moderate-severe or severe valve regurgitation at follow-up had a worse survival. Therefore, in patients with single-ventricle atrioventricular septal defect when atrioventricular valve regurgitation exceeds a moderate degree, the atrioventricular valve should be repaired.