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ObjectivesThe Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 and other cross-sectional metrics can lead to potentially counterintuitive conclusions when used to evaluate health systems' performance. This study demonstrates how time and population dynamics impact UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics in comparison with a longitudinal analogue.DesignA simplified simulation representing a hypothetical population was used to estimate and compare inference from UNAIDS 90-90-90 metrics and longitudinal metrics based on Kaplan-Meier-estimated 2-year probability of transition between stages.MethodsWe simulated a large cohort over 15 years. Everyone started out at risk for HIV, and then transitioned through the HIV care continuum based on fixed daily probabilities of acquiring HIV, learning status, entering care, initiating antiretroviral therapy (ART), and becoming virally suppressed, or dying. We varied the probability of ART initiation over three five-year periods (low, high, and low). We repeated the simulation with an increased probability of death.ResultsThe cross-sectional probability of being on ART among persons who were diagnosed responded relatively slowly to changes in the rate of ART initiation. Increases in ART initiation rates caused apparent declines in the cross-sectional probability of being virally suppressed among persons who had initiated ART, despite no changes in the rate of viral suppression. In some cases, higher mortality resulted in the cross-sectional metrics implying improved healthcare system performance. The longitudinal continuum was robust to these issues.ConclusionThe UNAIDS 90-90-90 care continuum may lead to incorrect inference when used to evaluate health systems performance. We recommend that evaluation of HIV care delivery include longitudinal care continuum metrics wherever possible.

: Introduction: Despite widespread success in reducing vertical HIV transmission, most antenatal care (ANC) programmes in eastern and southern Africa have not emphasized primary prevention of maternal HIV acquisition during pregnancy and lactation/breastfeeding. We hypothesized that combination HIV prevention interventions initiated alongside ANC could substantially reduce maternal HIV incidence. Methods: We constructed a multi‐state model describing male‐to‐female HIV transmission in steady heterosexual partnerships during pregnancy and lactation/breastfeeding, with initial conditions based on population distribution estimates for Malawi and Zambia in 2020. We modelled individual and joint increases in three HIV prevention strategies at or soon after ANC initiation: (1) HIV testing of male partners, resulting in HIV diagnosis and less condomless sex among those with previously undiagnosed HIV; (2) initiation (or re‐initiation) of suppressive antiretroviral therapy (ART) for male partners with diagnosed but unsuppressed HIV; and (3) adherent pre‐exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for HIV‐negative female ANC patients with HIV‐diagnosed or unknown‐status male partners. We estimated the percentage of within‐couple, male‐to‐female HIV transmissions that could be averted during pregnancy and lactation/breastfeeding with these strategies, relative to base‐case conditions in which 45% of undiagnosed male partners become newly HIV diagnosed via testing, 75% of male partners with diagnosed but unsuppressed HIV initiate/re‐initiate ART and 0% of female ANC patients start PrEP. Results: Increasing uptake of any single strategy by 20 percentage points above base‐case levels averted 10%−11% of maternal HIV acquisitions during pregnancy and lactation/breastfeeding in the model. Joint uptake increases of 20 percentage points in two interventions averted an estimated 19%−23% of transmissions, and with a 20‐percentage‐point increase in uptake of all three interventions, 29% were averted. Strategies achieving 95% male testing, 90% male ART initiation/re‐initiation and 40% female PrEP use reduced incident infections by 45%. Conclusions: Combination HIV prevention strategies provided alongside ANC and sustained through the post‐partum period could substantially reduce maternal HIV incidence during pregnancy and lactation/breastfeeding in eastern and southern Africa., INTRODUCTION The rising uptake of lifelong antiretroviral therapy (ART) among pregnant people living with HIV and attending antenatal care (ANC) resulted in a 38% reduction in vertical HIV transmission between [...]

Depressive symptoms vary in severity and chronicity. We used group-based trajectory models to describe trajectories of depressive symptoms (measured using the Patient Health Questionnaire-9) and predictors of trajectory group membership among 1493 HIV-infected men (84%) and 292 HIV-infected women (16%). At baseline, 29% of women and 26% of men had depressive symptoms. Over a median of 30 months of follow-up, we identified four depressive symptom trajectories for women (labeled "low" [experienced by 56% of women], "mild/moderate" [24%], "improving" [14%], and "severe" [6%]) and five for men ("low" [61%], "mild/moderate" [14%], "rebounding" [5%], "improving" [13%], and "severe" [7%]). Baseline antidepressant prescription, panic symptoms, and prior mental health diagnoses were associated with more severe or dynamic depressive symptom trajectories. Nearly a quarter of participants experienced some depressive symptoms, highlighting the need for improved depression management. Addressing more severe or dynamic depressive symptom trajectories may require interventions that additionally address mental health comorbidities.

Keywords: human immunodeficiency virus; integrated care; health systems; mathematical models, The year 2020 is the designated date for achieving the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS 90-90-90 targets for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) diagnosis, treatment and viral suppression [1]; it [...]

Facing unprecedented uncertainty and drastic trade-offs between public health and other forms of human well-being, policymakers during the Covid-19 pandemic have sought the guidance of epidemiologists and economists. Unfortunately, while both groups of scientists use many of the same basic mathematical tools, the models they develop to inform policy tend to rely on different sets of assumptions and, thus, often lead to different policy conclusions. This divergence in policy recommendations can lead to uncertainty and confusion, opening the door to disinformation, distrust of institutions, and politicization of scientific facts. Unfortunately, to date, there have not been widespread efforts to build bridges and find consensus or even to clarify sources of differences across these fields, members of whom often continue to work within their traditional academic silos. In response to this 'crisis of communication,' we convened a group of scholars from epidemiology, economics, and related fields (such as statistics, engineering, and health policy) to discuss approaches to modeling economy-wide pandemics. We summarize these conversations by providing a consensus view of disciplinary differences (including critiques) and working through a specific policy example. Thereafter, we chart a path forward for more effective synergy among disciplines, which we hope will lead to better policies as the current pandemic evolves and future pandemics emerge. JEL classification: C8, H0, I1, J0 Key words: economics, epidemiology, public health, Covid-19, behavior modeling, health outcomes, health-wealth tradeoffs https://doi.org/10.29338/wp2021-26, Section 1. Introduction Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, policymakers have been tasked with designing and implementing policies in the face of extraordinary uncertainty (Manski, 1999) and stark trade-offs between public health [...]

Background: Understanding heterogeneity across patients in effectiveness of network-based HIV testing interventions may optimize testing and contact tracing strategies, expediting linkage to therapy or prevention for contacts of persons with HIV (PWH). Setting: We analyzed data from a randomized controlled trial of a combination intervention comprising acute HIV testing, contract partner notification (cPN), and social contact referral conducted among PWH at 2 STI clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi, between 2015 and 2019. Methods: We used binomial regression to estimate the effect of the combination intervention vs. passive PN (pPN) on having any (1) contact, (2) newly HIV-diagnosed contact, and (3) HIV-negative contact present to the clinic, overall and by referring participant characteristics. We repeated analyses comparing cPN alone with pPN. Results: The combination intervention effect on having any presenting contact was greater among referring women than men [prevalence difference (PD): 0.17 vs. 0.10] and among previously vs. newly HIV-diagnosed referring persons (PD: 0.20 vs. 0.11). Differences by sex and HIV diagnosis status were similar in cPN vs. pPN analyses. There were no notable differences in the intervention effect on newly HIV-diagnosed referrals by referring participant characteristics. Intervention impact on having HIVnegative presenting contacts was greater among younger vs. older referring persons and among those with >1 vs. ≤1 recent sex partner. Effect differences by age were similar for cPN vs. pPN. Conclusion: Our intervention package may be particularly efficacious in eliciting referrals from women and previously diagnosed persons. When the combination intervention is infeasible, cPN alone may be beneficial for these populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

: Introduction: HIV diagnosis is the necessary first step towards HIV care initiation, yet many persons living with HIV (PLWH) remain undiagnosed. Employing multiple HIV testing strategies in tandem could increase HIV detection and promote linkage to care. We aimed to assess an intervention to improve HIV detection within socio‐sexual networks of PLWH in two sexually transmitted infections (STI) clinics in Lilongwe, Malawi. Methods: We conducted a randomized controlled trial to evaluate an intervention combining acute HIV infection (AHI) screening, contract partner notification and social contact referral versus the Malawian standard of care: serial rapid serological HIV tests and passive partner referral. Enrolment occurred between 2015 and 2019. HIV‐seropositive persons (two positive rapid tests) were randomized to the trial arms and HIV‐seronegative (one negative rapid test) and ‐serodiscordant (one positive test followed by a negative confirmatory test) persons were screened for AHI with HIV RNA testing. Those found to have AHI were offered enrolment into the intervention arm. Our primary outcome of interest was the number of new HIV diagnoses made per index participant within participants’ sexual and social networks. We also calculated total persons, sexual partners and PLWH (including those previously diagnosed) referred per index participant. Results: A total of 1230 HIV‐seropositive persons were randomized to the control arm, and 561 to the intervention arm. Another 12,713 HIV‐seronegative or ‐serodiscordant persons underwent AHI screening, resulting in 136 AHI cases, of whom 94 enrolled into the intervention arm. The intervention increased the number of new HIV diagnoses made per index participant versus the control (ratio: 1.9; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2 to 3.1). The intervention also increased the numbers of persons (ratio: 2.5; 95% CI: 2.0 to 3.2), sexual partners (ratio: 1.7; 95% CI: 1.4 to 2.0) and PLWH (ratio: 2.3; 95% CI: 1.7 to 3.2) referred per index participant. Conclusions: Combining three distinct HIV testing and referral strategies increased the detection of previously undiagnosed HIV infections within the socio‐sexual networks of PLWH seeking STI care. Combination HIV detection strategies that leverage AHI screening and socio‐sexual contact networks offer a novel and efficacious approach to increasing HIV status awareness., INTRODUCTION HIV diagnosis is the essential first step for people living with HIV (PLWH) to access HIV care, which can improve health outcomes and reduce the potential for onward transmission [...]

Supplemental Digital Content is Available in the Text. Background: On-demand dosing of preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) requires accurate prediction of sex; however, prediction abilities among young men who have sex with men (YMSM) have not been characterized. Setting: A nationally recruited prospective cohort of YMSM ages 16–24 years. Methods: We followed 120 YMSM for 8 weeks using digital daily surveys (DDSs) to measure engagement in and prediction of anal sex over 24 hours, along with condom use and other encounter-level circumstances. Our main outcome, an "unpredicted spontaneous encounter," was defined as an anal sex encounter that occurred without sufficient prior knowledge to (hypothetically) enable protective on-demand PrEP use according to dosing guidelines. We operationalized this outcome as an anal sex encounter for which a participant indicated: (1) on the prior day's DDS that there was a low likelihood of sex occurring in the subsequent 24 hours (unpredicted) and (2) on the current day's DDS that he knew ≤2 hours in advance that the encounter would occur (spontaneous). Results: Approximately one-third of all anal sex encounters during the study period were unpredicted and spontaneous and would not have been protected (hypothetically) by on-demand dosing. More than two-thirds of participants experienced such an encounter and almost three-quarters of all acts were condomless. Conclusions: On-demand PrEP to prevent HIV acquisition may be challenging for many YMSM. Clinical and public health approaches that account for patients' predictive abilities alongside their dosing preferences may help to optimize selection of and adherence to PrEP dosing strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over the past decade, services to prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) ofhuman immunodeficiency virus (HIV) have expanded rapidly, resulting in reductions in paediatric acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) worldwide. (1) However, although [...]