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Author(s): Joseph M. Currin [sup.1] , Brittney L. Golden [sup.1] , Randolph D. Hubach [sup.2] Author Affiliations: (1) grid.264784.b, 0000 0001 2186 7496, Department of Psychological Sciences, Texas Tech University, [...], There is a paucity of research analyzing sexting behaviors in adults aged 25 and older. The majority of research into sexting focuses on emerging adult populations and adolescents. While sexting has been studied in regard to relational attachment and motivations to sext, little is known about how these constructs are associated with older adults&apos; sexting behaviors and how they relate to the type of sext message sent. To that end, the current study sought to predict the type of sext message (image or text only) sent based on relational attachment and sexting motivations. A significant logistic regression model was found ([chi]2(6) = 51.97, p < .001), with relational anxiety and body image reinforcement being significant predictors of adults sending a partially and/or nude image in a sext message. Interestingly, gender was not a significant predictor. Gender not being a significant predictor differs from research into emerging adult relational attachment styles and sexting behaviors. Individuals who sexted for body image reinforcement were more likely to send an image as a sext message. Those who were higher on relational anxiety were less likely to send an image as a sext message.

Introduction Delinquent behaviour is a major psychiatric and public safety issue with severe consequences for individuals and for society. (1) Several longitudinal studies have advanced our etiological understanding of delinquent [...], Background: Neurobiological measures have been associated with delinquent behaviour, but little is known about the predictive power of these measures for criminal recidivism and whether they have incremental value over and above demographic and behavioural measures. This study examined whether selected measures of autonomic functioning, functional neuroimaging and electroencephalography predict overall and serious recidivism in a sample of 127 delinquent young adults. Methods: We assessed demographics; education and intelligence; previous delinquency and drug use; behavioural traits, including aggression and psychopathy; and neurobiological measures, including heart rate, heart rate variability, functional brain activity during an inhibition task and 2 electroencephalographic measures of error-processing. We tested longitudinal associations with recidivism using Cox proportional hazard models and predictive power using C-indexes. Results: Past offences, long-term cannabis use and reactive aggression were strongly associated with recidivism, as were resting heart rate and error-processing. In the predictive model, demographics, past delinquency, drug use and behavioural traits had moderate predictive power for overall and for serious recidivism (C-index over 30 months [fraction of pairs in the data, where the higher observed survival time was correctly predicted]: [C.sub.30] = 0.68 and 0.75, respectively). Neurobiological measures significantly improved predictive power ([C.sub.30] = 0.72 for overall recidivism and C30 = 0.80 for serious recidivism). Limitations: Findings cannot be generalized to females, and follow-up was limited to 4 years. Conclusion: Demographic and behavioural characteristics longitudinally predicted recidivism in delinquent male young adults, and neurobiological measures improved the models. This led to good predictive function, particularly for serious recidivism. Importantly, the most feasible measures (autonomic functioning and electroencephalography) proved to be useful neurobiological predictors.

The pace of early language acquisition is highly variable: The age at which the majority of children (10th-90th percentile) say their first word varies from 10 to 16 months, with [...], Purpose: The authors of this article examined the etiology of developmental language impairment (LI) at 4 and 12 years of age, as well as the relationship between the 2. Method: Phenotypic and quantitative genetic analyses using longitudinal data from the Twins Early Development Study (Oliver & Plomin, 2007) were conducted. A total of 2,923 pairs of twins (1,075 monozygotic [MZ]; 975 dizygotic same sex [DZss]; and 873 dizygotic opposite sex [DZos]) provided data at 4 and 12 years. At 4 years, (a) psychometric LI was defined on the basis of a low parent-reported expressive vocabulary score (-1.25 SDs; 226 MZ and 115 DZss probands for genetic analysis); and (b) parent referral was defined as having seen a medical professional or speech-language pathologist following parental concern (112 MZ and 104 DZss probands). The 12-year language measure was a composite of 4 web-administered receptive language tests. Results: (a) Psychometric LI at 4 years is more predictive than parent referral of poor language performance at age 12 years, and (b) parent referral is substantially and significantly more heritable than psychometric LI. Conclusions: Parents&apos; concern about their child&apos;s language development seems to be the marker of a more heritable disorder than poor expressive language skills alone. However, the language difficulties that arouse parental concern in preschool children, although more heritable, are not predictive of language difficulties in early adolescence. Rather, poor expressive language skills at age 4 years, psychometrically defined, are a better predictor than parent referral of continuing language difficulties at age 12 years. Key Words: language impairment, etiology, genetics, longitudinal, prediction

Little research has explored the role of attachment in predicting virtues. In the present study, we provide an initial investigation testing the theory that virtues develop from having secure attachment [...]

Personality factors such as low agreeableness and psychological entitlement are often highly predictive of spiritual struggle. Our aim was to examine trait humility as a potential predictor of lower levels [...]

The purpose of this study was to determine whether an athlete's tendency to define success in a particular way (i. e., achievement goal orientation) related to his or her tendency to perceive competition as threatening (i. e., competitive trait anxiety). It was hypothesized that athletes endorsing primarily an ego orientation (i.e., norm-referenced criteria for success) would report higher levels of competitive trait anxiety (CTA) than athletes with a stronger task goal orientation (i. e., self-referenced criteria for success). Participants included college-age male (n = 200) and female (n = 129) athletes participating in intercollegiate, intramural and recreational sport. The use of multiple data-analytic techniques revealed that (a) no goal-orientation profile (or cluster combination of task and ego) differentiated athletes on measures of CTA, and (b) task orientation, rather than ego orientation, contributed most strongly to the multivariate relationship between goal orientations and CTA. Polynomial multiple regression analysis revealed that the association between ego orientation and cognitive anxiety was curvilinear and varied as a function of task orientation. These results indicate that further theory development is needed regarding the relationships between goal orientations with competitive trait anxiety., The independent and parallel lines of research aimed at understanding achievement goal orientations and competitive anxiety are among the most prolific in the sport psychology field. Although there is an [...]

Experiments often need to test human children and nonhuman beings when experimenters and other human beings remain in plain view. This is a common situation in developmental and comparative studies [...], Testers and bystanders can inadvertently lead subjects to answers in laboratories and in classrooms, in face-to-face tests of human beings and other animals. Many modern investigators avoid leading by using blind tests scrupulously. This article shows how to design blind tests and illustrates common methodological errors that allow leading to confound experimental results. The object is to help experimenters, editors, and readers detect and avoid a common experimental error that often has profound theoretical implications.

The present research examined optimistic and pessimistic bias in the prediction of positive and negative physical and psychological health outcomes between European American and Asian American college students. Results of between-group and within-group analyses indicated both similarities and differences in predictions for health outcomes. Sex differences were also found. Taken together, these findings point to a need to consider both culture and sex differences in the prediction of health.

Background: Social psychological research suggests that prediction of behavioural intentions towards those with mental illness could be increased by assessing attitudes towards specific actions or behaviours and by including a measure of perceived normative expectations by others concerning such behaviours. Aims: To investigate whether attitudes towards specific behaviours and perceived normative expectations improve prediction of behavioural intentions towards a person with mental illness. Methods: Two studies were carried out; one with university undergraduates and one with community service club members. Each included assessments of attitudes towards a person described as having a mental illness; attitudes towards specific behaviours reflecting social distance; perceived descriptive and injunctive norms with reference to those behaviours; and behavioural intentions. Results: Attitude towards the specifi c behaviour frequently showed a higher correlation with behavioural intentions than did attitude towards the person. Inclusion of perceived norms also improved prediction of behavioural intention. Conclusions: The prediction of behavioural intentions towards those with mental illness may be improved by increasing the specificity of the attitude measures to the behavioural intentions being predicted and including measures of perceived norms. Furthermore, the effectiveness of efforts to reduce the stigma of mental illness may be increased by addressing their impact on perceived norms.

Many previous studies of animal and human learning indicate a processing advantage for cues previously experienced as good predictors of outcomes over those experienced as poorer predictors. Four studies of human associative learning investigated whether learned predictiveness acts at the level of learning (modulating the rate at which cue--outcome associations form), performance (modulating the strength of behavioral responses), or both. In Experiments 1-3, it was found that retrospectively altering the learned predictiveness of cues influenced responding to those cues, demonstrating that learned predictiveness influences performance. Experiment 4 indicates that learned predictiveness also influences learning by demonstrating that the learned predictiveness of a cue affects the acquisition of an association between a novel cue and the outcome with which it is paired. Keywords: human associative learning, cue--outcome association, learned predictiveness

A hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) was developed. The model was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The results of the study show that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes.

The sequential nature of action ensures that an individual can anticipate the conclusion of an observed action via the use of semantic rules. The semantic processing of language and action has been linked to the N400 component of the event-related potential (ERP). The authors developed an ERP paradigm in which infants and adults observed simple sequences of actions. In one condition the conclusion of the sequence was anticipated, whereas in the other condition the conclusion was not anticipated. Adults and infants at 9 months and 7 months were assessed via the same neural mechanisms--the N400 component and analysis of the theta frequency. Results indicated that adults and infants at 9 months produced N400-like responses when anticipating action conclusions. The infants at 7 mouths displayed no N400 component. Analysis of the theta frequency provided support for the relation between the N400 and semantic processing. This study suggests that infants at 9 months anticipate goals and use similar cognitive mechanisms to adults in this task. In addition, this result suggests that language processing may derive from understanding action in early development. Keywords: action perception, semantic processing, infants, N400, theta

Recent studies have shown that people have the capacity to derive interventional predictions for previously unseen actions from observational knowledge, a finding that challenges associative theories of causal learning and reasoning (e.g., Meder, Hagmayer, & Waldmann, 2008). Although some researchers have claimed that such inferences are based mainly on qualitative reasoning about the structure of a causal system (e.g., Sloman, 2005), we propose that people use both the causal structure and its parameters for their inferences. We here employ an observational trial-by-trial learning paradigm to test this prediction. In Experiment 1, the causal strength of the links within a given causal model was varied, whereas in Experiment 2, base rate information was manipulated while keeping the structure of the model constant. The results show that learners' causal judgments were strongly affected by the observed learning data despite being presented with identical hypotheses about causal structure. The findings show furthermore that participants correctly distinguished between observations and hypothetical interventions. However, they did not adequately differentiate between hypothetical and counterfactual interventions.

Participants in 2 experiments performed 2 simultaneous tasks: one, a dual-target detection task within a rapid sequence of target and distractor letters; the other, a cued reaction time task requiring participants to make a cued left-right response immediately after each letter sequence. Under these rapid visual presentation conditions, it is usually difficult to identify the 2nd target when it is presented in temporal proximity of the 1st target--a phenomenon known as the attentional blink. However, here participants showed an advantage for detecting a target presented during the attentional blink if that target predicted which response cue would appear at the end of the trial. Participants also showed faster reaction times on trials with a predictive target. Both of these effects were independent of conscious knowledge of the target-response contingencies assessed by postexperiment questionnaires. The results suggest that implicit learning of the association between a predictive target and its outcome can automatically facilitate target recognition during the attentional blink and therefore shed new light on the relationship between associative learning and attentional mechanisms. Keywords: predictive learning, attentional blink, signal validity, implicit learning

A skew in the base rate of upcoming events can often provide a better cue for accurate predictions than a contingency between signals and events. The authors study prediction behavior and test people's sensitivity to both base rate and contingency; they also examine people's ability to compare the benefits of both for prediction. They formalize these notions and propose a new measure of the regularity in the environment (ExpPA). In two experiments they test whether the notions underlying this measure capture prediction behavior. In the first experiment, they compare participants' prediction behavior, preference, and assessment of contingencies in two data sets that differ only in their base rate. In the second, in which the contribution of contingency over base rate is manipulated, they study participants' willingness to forgo a costly predictor. Results indicate a close correspondence between ExpPA and behavior. Keywords: prediction, base rate, contingency

Examinations of the cognitive neuroscience of category learning frequently rely on probabilistic classification-learning tasks--namely, the weather prediction task (WPT)--to study the neural mechanisms of implicit learning. Accumulating evidence suggests that the task also depends on explicit-learning processes. The present investigation manipulated the WPT to assess the specific contributions of implicit- and explicit-learning processes to performance, with a particular focus on how the contributions of these processes change as the task progresses. In Experiment 1, a manipulation designed to disrupt implicit-learning processes had no effect on classification accuracy or the distribution of individual response strategies. In Experiment 2, by contrast, a manipulation designed to disrupt explicit-learning processes substantially reduced classification accuracy and reduced the number of participants who relied on a correct response strategy. The present findings suggest that WPT learning is not an effective tool for investigating nondeclarative learning processes.

Although people generally are optimistic about the future, they will lower their predictions to brace for bad news when confronting a challenge to their predictions. Three studies examined whether this shift in predictions for self-relevant outcomes extends to predictions for others' outcomes. That is, the authors explored whether people display 'compassionate bracing.' Results reveal that participants did not brace for friends even when their friend faced imminent feedback (Study 1) and even when the outcome was highly important to the friend (Study 2). Participants braced for friends only when the friend's performance had self-relevant implications (Study 3). The authors discuss the implications of these findings for communication and relationship health. Keywords: optimism; expectations; risk judgments; bracing; relationships

Three localized, visual pattern stimuli were trained as predictive signals of auditory outcomes. One signal partially predicted an aversive noise in Experiment 1 and a neutral tone in Experiment 2, whereas the other signals consistently predicted either the occurrence or absence of the noise. The expectation of the noise was measured during each signal presentation, and only participants for whom this expectation demonstrated contingency knowledge showed differential attention to the signals. Importantly, when attention was measured by visual fixations, the contingency-aware group attended more to the partially predictive signal than to the consistent predictors in both experiments. This profile of visual attention supports the Pearce and Hall (1980) theory of the role of attention in associative learning. Keywords: Attention; Expectancy; Human predictive learning; Prediction; Uncertainty.

Many people assume that they know themselves better than anyone else knows them. Recent research on inaccuracies in self perception, however, suggests that self knowledge may be more limited than people typically assume. In this article, the authors examine the possibility that people may know a person as well as (or better than) that person knows himself or herself. In Study 1, the authors document the strength of laypeople's beliefs that the self is the best expert. In Study 2, the authors provide a direct test of self- and other-accuracy using an objective and representative behavioral criterion. To do this, the authors compared sell- and other-ratings of daily behavior to real-life measures of act frequencies assessed unobtrusively over 4 days. Our results show that close others are as accurate as the self in predicting daily behavior. Furthermore, accuracy varies across behaviors for both the self and for others, and the two perspectives often independently predict behavior. These findings suggest that there is no single perspective from which a person is known best and that both the self and others possess unique insight into how a person typically behaves. Keywords: accuracy, behavioral prediction, self-knowledge, informant reports, ecological momentary assessment

This research examines preinvestment forecasting processes in escalation of commitment, considering two questions: whether individuals are able to accurately predict their behavior and affect in escalation situations and how forecasting processes may be linked to actual escalation. Three experiments demonstrated that individuals underpredicted their escalation and overpredicted their postescalation regret. Two of the experiments also indicated that the less individuals predicted being entrapped, the more they escalated. Counter to expectations, anticipated regret did not predict escalation. The discussion focuses on the theoretical and practical importance of forecasting on escalation and on the importance of understanding both behavioral and affective forecasting effects simultaneously. Keywords: behavioral forecasting; affective forecasting; escalation of commitment

The relationship of elaboration on potential outcomes (EPO) with conceptually related traits and its association with consumer behaviors are studied. Consumers with high EPO levels exhibit more effective self-regulation, while consumers with low EPO levels can temporarily improve self-regulation by priming EPO.

Challenges to visual prediction as an organizing concept come from three main sources: (1) from observations arising from the results of experiments employing unpredictable motion, (2) from the assertions that motor processes compensate for all neural delays, and (3) from multiple interpretations specific to the flash-lag effect. One clarification that has emerged is that visual prediction is a process that either complements or reflects non-visual (e.g., motor) prediction.

A necessary consequence of the nature of neural transmission systems is that as change in the physical state of a time-varying event takes place, delays produce error between the instantaneous registered state and the external state. Another source of delay is the transmission of internal motor commands to muscles and the inertia of the musculoskeletal system. How does the central nervous system compensate for these pervasive delays? Although it has been argued that delay compensation occurs late in the motor planning stages, even the earliest visual processes, such as phototransduction, contribute significantly to delays. I argue that compensation is not an exclusive property of the motor system, but rather, is a pervasive feature of the central nervous system (CNS) organization. Although the motor planning system may contain a highly flexible compensation mechanism, accounting not just for delays but also variability in delays (e.g., those resulting from variations in luminance contrast, internal body temperature, muscle fatigue, etc.), visual mechanisms also contribute to compensation. Previous suggestions of this notion of 'visual prediction' led to a lively debate producing re-examination of previous arguments, new analyses, and review of the experiments presented here. Understanding visual prediction will inform our theories of sensory processes and visual perception, and will impact our notion of visual awareness. Keywords: biased competition; compensation; coordinate transformation; feedforward control; flash-lag; internal models; lateral interactions; neural representation; reference frames; time delays; visual awareness

Using a continuous tracking task, the authors examined whether stopping is resistant to expectancies as well as whether it is a representative measure of response control. Participants controlled the speed of a moving marker by continuously adjusting their response force. Participants stopped their ongoing tracking in response to auditory signals on 25%, 50%, 75%, or 100% of trials. Stopping was contrasted with accelerating, in which participants accelerated the marker in response to the signals. In Experiment 1, on each trial participants either stopped or accelerated, allowing a trade-off between the two. In Experiments 2 and 3, participants only stopped or only accelerated, thus decreasing the likelihood of a trade-off. When a trade-off was possible, stopping was resistant to expectancies. However, with little or no trade-off, expectancies influenced stopping and accelerating similarly. These findings contrast with the established view that stopping is insensitive to expectancies. In addition, when trade-offs are prevented, these results confirm that stopping is representative of other response adjustment measures. Keywords: stopping, expectancy, predictability, response control, response modification

This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a probability distribution over all possible such sequences. The predictions are parameter free. This article looks at (a) the accuracy of those predictions and how that accuracy can be validated, (b) the principles on which the predictive algorithm is based, and (c) the limits to predictability. Some implications for the understanding of free recall are spelled out. Keywords: free recall, prediction, rehearsal, retrieval from memory

Four experiments tested context switch effects on acquisition and extinction in human predictive learning. A context switch impaired probability judgments about a cue-outcome relationship when the cue was trained in a context in which a different cue underwent extinction. The context switch also impaired judgments about a cue trained in a context different from the extinction context, whenever this training was concurrent with extinction of another cue. After extinction, new cue--outcome relationships learned, even in a different task, became context specific. Moreover, renewal was consistently observed. It is suggested that context switch effects result from a process by which ambiguity leads participants to attend to the contexts. Keywords: context switch effects, extinction, attention, human predictive learning, renewal, retrieval theory of forgetting

The authors criticize the use of participants' predictive responses during a learning phase as a measure of causal assessments (J. M. Tangen & L. G. Allan, 2003, 2004). Simulations demonstrate that a general aim to minimize error as required in the prediction task will produce results in accordance with those observed, in particular apparent cue interaction effects. It is argued that measures estimated from prediction responses do not reflect causal ratings, but are side-effects of learning explained by adaptation in strategy to changes in presented cell frequencies. The results are reinterpreted to be in line with a causal model view, not requiring dual processes or cue competition of lower level associative processes.

Three experiments examined human processing of stimuli as predictors and causes. In Experiments 1A and 1B, two serial events that both preceded a third were assessed as predictors and as causes of the third event. Instructions successfully provided scenarios in which one of the serial (target) stimuli was viewed as a strong predictor but as a weak cause of the third event. In Experiment 2, participants' preexperimental knowledge was drawn upon in such a way that two simultaneous antecedent events were processed as predictors or causes, which strongly influenced the occurrence of overshadowing between the antecedent events. Although a tendency toward overshadowing was found between predictors, reliable overshadowing was observed only between causes, and then only when the test question was causal. Together with other evidence in the human learning literature, the present results suggest that predictive and causal learning obey similar laws, but there is a greater susceptibility to cue competition in causal than predictive attribution.

In three experiments, we show that people respond differently when they make predictions as opposed to when they are asked to estimate the causal or the predictive value of cues: Their response to each of those three questions is based on different sets of information. More specifically, we show that prediction judgments depend on the probability of the outcome given the cue, whereas causal and predictive-value judgments depend on the cue-outcome contingency. Although these results might seem problematic for most associative models in their present form, they can be explained by explicitly assuming the existence of postacquisition processes that modulate participants' responses in a flexible way.

Knowing an item's category helps us predict its unknown properties. Previous studies suggest that when asked to evaluate the probability of an unknown property, people tend to consider only an item's most likely category, ignoring alternative categories. In the present study, property prediction took the form of either a probability rating or a speeded binary-choice judgment. In keeping with past findings, the subjects ignored alternative categories in their probability ratings. However, their binary-choice judgments were influenced by alternative categories. This novel finding suggests that the way in which category knowledge is used in prediction depends critically on the form of the prediction.

The authors examined the hypothesis that judgments of learning (JOL), if governed by processing fluency during encoding, should be insensitive to the anticipated retention interval. Indeed, neither item-by-item nor aggregate JOLs exhibited 'forgetting' unless participants were asked to estimate recall rates for several different retention intervals, in which case their estimates mimicked closely actual recall rates. These results and others reported suggest that participants can access their knowledge about forgetting but only when theory-based predictions are made, and then only when the notion of forgetting is accentuated either by manipulating retention interval within individuals or by framing recall predictions in terms of forgetting rather than remembering. The authors interpret their findings in terms of the distinction between experience-based and theory-based JOLs.

This research identifies a new source of failure to make accurate affective predictions or to make experientially optimal choices. When people make predictions or choices, they are often in the joint evaluation (JE) mode; when people actually experience an event, they are often in the single evaluation (SE) mode. The 'utility function' of an attribute can vary systematically between SE and JE. When people in JE make predictions or choices for events to be experienced in SE, they often resort to their JE preferences rather than their SE preferences and overpredict the difference that different values of an attribute (e.g., different salaries) will make to their happiness in SE. This overprediction is referred to as the distinction bias. The present research also specifies when the distinction bias occurs and when it does not. This research contributes to literatures on experienced utility, affective forecasting, and happiness.

This paper researches whether forecasters act strategically and with the intent of maximizing specific aspects (such as their prestige or salary) or if they engange in 'herding behavior,' that is, making forecasts resembling consensus forecasts. This study also examines whether or not more reputable and experienced forecasters then to make more radical predicitons.

Rarely have researchers elucidated early childhood precursors of externalizing behaviors for boys and girls from a normative sample. Toddlers (N = 104; 52 girls) were observed interacting with a same-sex peer and their mothers, and indices of conflict-aggression, emotion and behavior dysregulation, parenting, and child externalizing problems were obtained. Results indicated that boys initiated more conflictual-aggressive interactions as toddlers and had more externalizing difficulties 2 years later, yet girls' (not boys') conflict-aggressive initiations at age 2 were related to subsequent externalizing problems. When such initiations were controlled for, emotional-behavioral undercontrol at age 2 also independently predicted externalizing problems at age 4. Moreover, the relation between conflict-aggressive initiations at age 2 and externalizing problems at age 4 was strongest for dysregulated toddlers. Finally, the relation between age 2 conflict-aggressive initiations and age 4 externalizing problems was strongest for those toddlers who incurred high levels of maternal negativity. These findings illustrate temperament by parenting connections in the development of externalizing problems.

The purpose of this study was to identify kindergarten-age predictors of early-onset substance use from demographic, environmental, parenting, child psychological, behavioral, and social functioning domains. Data from a longitudinal study of 295 children were gathered using multiple-assessment methods and multiple informants in kindergarten and 1st grade. Annual assessments at ages 10, 11, and 12 reflected that 21% of children reported having initiated substance use by age 12. Results from longitudinal logistic regression models indicated that risk factors at kindergarten include being male, having a parent who abused substances, lower levels of parental verbal reasoning, higher levels of overactivity, more thought problems, and more social problem solving skills deficits. Children with no risk factors had less than a 10% chance of initiating substance use by age 12, whereas children with 2 or more risk factors had greater than a 50% chance of initiating substance use. Implications for typology, etiology, and prevention are discussed. KEY WORDS: early-onset substance use; children; development; etiology.

Research shows that women, as partners of male smokeless tobacco users, actively involve in their partners' enrollment and participation in the tobacco cessation program, suggesting that the women are concerned and are motivated to help their partners quit chewing tobacco.

Sixty-five young adults with remitted major depressive disorder (MDD) were followed for 18 months. Recurrence of MDD was reported by 41.5% of the initial sample and 49.1% of those who completed the study (n = 53). Survival analyses were used to identify predictors of recurrence so that individuals at greatest risk could be targeted for intervention. Potential predictors included measures of comorbid psychopathology (Axis II pathology, and current and lifetime nonmood Axis I diagnoses), depressionspecific clinical features (number of episodes, past treatment, and suicidality), and self-reported cognitive and interpersonal constructs (hope, dysfunctional attitudes, and interpersonal problems). Only personality pathology (specifically, the total dimensional and Cluster B dimensional scores on the International Personality Disorder Examination; World Health Organization, 1996) significantly predicted hazard of recurrence.

AMONG ADOLESCENTS, alcohol is the most commonly used psychoactive drug. The 1999 Monitoring the Future national survey of secondary school students found that approximately 52% of 8th grade students, 71% [...], Objective: To provide a comprehensive examination of childhood and adolescent predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence at age 21, theoretically guided by the social development model. Method: Data were taken from an ethnically diverse urban sample of 808 students (51% male), surveyed at age 10 and followed prospectively to age 21 in 1996. Potential predictors of alcohol abuse and dependence at age 21 were measured at ages 10, 14 and 16. Relationships between these predictors and alcohol abuse and dependence were examined at each age, to assess changes in their patterns of prediction over time. Results: Strong bonding to school, close parental monitoring of children and clearly defined family rules for behavior, appropriate parental rewards for good behaviors, high level of refusal skills and strong belief in the moral order predicted a lower risk for alcohol abuse and dependence at age 21. Of these, strong bonding to school consistently predicted lower alcohol abuse and dependence from all three ages (10, 14 and 16). By contrast, youths who had a higher risk of alcohol abuse and dependence at age 21 engaged in more problem behaviors, had more opportunities to be involved with antisocial individuals and spent more time with and were more bonded to those individuals, viewed fewer negative consequences from antisocial behaviors and held more favorable views on alcohol use. Of these, prior problem behaviors and antisocial opportunities and involvements at ages 10, 14 and 16 consistently predicted alcohol abuse and dependence at age 21. Conclusions: These important malleable predictors, identifiable as early as age 10, provide potential intervention targets for the prevention of alcohol abuse and dependence in early adulthood. (J. Stud. Alcohol 62: 754-762, 2001)

This article examines sex differences in factors associated with smoking cessation in teenagers. Findings indicate that smoking cessation in girls is associated with weak intentions for extended smoking, decreased marijuana use, less parental approval, and peer support while there were no significant associations for smoking cessation among teenage boys.

This article investigates the psychological factors associated with depression in cardiac patients. Findings indicate that both cognitive distortions and dispositional optimism are associated with depression a month after hospitalization, but only optimism is predictive of depression a year later.

This article examines the relationship between free-set goals, or personal goals set by an individual, and athletic performance in wrestling camp participants. Findings indicate that free-set goals are related to self-regulation and that the specificity and difficultly of these goals predict athletic performance.

This article examines self-assessments of college students regarding their future test performance in comparison to the performances of their classmates. Findings indicate that students use unrealistic optimism when predicting their test preparation and performance in comparison to similar others and generally rate themselves as above average.

This article examines factors associated with the development of post traumatic stress disorder in British adults who experienced a shipping accident during adolescence. Findings indicate that factors like psychological and learning disorders, female gender, domestic violence exposure, and social support were associated with the development of post traumatic stress disorder.