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International audience; By how much does the presence of behavioral uncertainty in an experimental asset market reduce subjects' confidence in their price forecasts? An incentivized interval forecast elicitation method is employed to answer this question. Each market consists of six traders, and the value of dividends is known. Two treatments are considered: six human traders (6H), and one human interacting with five computer traders whose behavior is known (1H5C). We find that while the deviation of the initial price forecasts from fundamental value is smaller in the 1H5C treatment than in the 6H treatment, albeit not statistically significantly, the average confidence regarding the forecasts is not. We further analyze the relationships between subjects' confidence in their forecasts and their trading behavior, as well as their trading performance, in the 6H treatment. While subjects' high confidence in their short-term forecasts shows a negative correlation with their trading performance, high confidence in their long-term forecasts shows a positive correlation with trading performance.

Prices for most industrial commodities continued to rise in the fourth quarter from their lows in early 2016, while most agricultural prices declined. Crude oil prices are forecast to rise to $55 per barrel in 2017 from $43/bbl in 2016 following agreements among some Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) producers and non-OPEC producers to limit output in the first half of 2017. Metals prices are projected to rise 11 percent as a result of supply constraints, including large lead and zinc mines closures. Agricultural commodities prices are anticipated to rise slightly in 2017, with increases in oils and meals and raw materials, offset by declines in grains following favorable weather conditions in Europe, North America, and Central Asia. This edition of Commodity Markets Outlook analyzes the recent investment weakness in commodity-exporting emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) and concludes that the deceleration reflects elevated uncertainty, deteriorated terms of trade, and increased private debt burdens.

Most commodity price indexes rebounded in the second quarter of 2016, continuing their upward climb from January lows on improved market sentiment and tapering supplies. Oil prices jumped by more than a third due to supply outages and strong demand. Given this rebound and expected reduction in inventories during the second half of the year, the crude oil price forecast for 2016 is being raised to 43 dollars per barrel (bbl) from 41 dollars per bbl in the April assessment, still a 15 percent drop from 2015. Metals prices are projected to decline 11 percent in 2016, a slightly larger drop than anticipated in April, mainly driven by an ongoing surplus in the copper market. Agricultural prices for 2016 have been revised slightly upwards due to weather patterns in South America, but are still expected to register a marginal decline from last year. A large upward revision for precious metal prices of more than 8 percentage points versus the April assessment reflects the increased demand for safe haven assets. For 2017, a modest recovery is projected for most commodities as demand strengthens and supply tightens. This issue of the Commodity Markets Outlook examines the implications of low energy prices for food prices. It finds that, given the energy-intensive nature of agriculture, high energy prices were an important driver of the post-2006 surge in agricultural prices. Over 2011-2016, lower energy prices are estimated to account for up to one-third of the projected 32 percent decline in prices of grains and soybeans.

Most commodity price indexes rebounded in February-March from their January lows on improved market sentiment and a weakening dollar. Still, average prices for the first quarter fell compared to the last quarter of 2015, with energy prices down 21 percent and non-energy prices lower by 2 percent. Given the recent rebound in oil prices and expected supply tightening in the second half of the year, the crude oil price forecast for 2016 has been raised to $41 per barrel (bbl), up from $37/bbl in the January assessment (and represents a drop of 19 percent from 2015.) Metals prices are projected to decline 8 percent, a slightly smaller drop than anticipated in January due to supply reductions. Agricultural prices have been revised marginally lower on signs of adequate harvests in major producers, and are expected to register a decline of 4 percent from last year. Looking to 2017, a modest price recovery is projected for most commodities as demand strengthens. Crude oil is projected to rise to $50/bbl as the market moves into balance. This issue of the Commodity Markets Outlook examines the implications of resource development in an era of lower commodity prices and concludes that ambitious improvements in governance and sounder macroeconomic policies are required to mitigate delays and risks.

The World Bank is lowering its 2016 forecast for crude oil prices to $37 per barrel in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook report from $51 per barrel in its October projections. The lower forecast reflects a number of supply and demand factors. These include sooner-than-anticipated resumption of exports by the Islamic Republic of Iran, greater resilience in U.S. production due to cost cuts and efficiency gains, a mild winter in the Northern Hemisphere, and weak growth prospects in major emerging market economies, according to the World Bank’s latest quarterly report.

Ample supplies and weak demand, especially for industrial commodities, contributed to the continued slide in most commodity prices in the third quarter of 2015. Annual price forecasts are revised down for 2015 and 2016. Only a modest recovery is expected in 2016. This issue briefly analyzes the implications of the ongoing El Niño episode and the recent Nuclear Agreement with Iran for agricultural and energy markets, respectively. Although El Niño could be the strongest on record, its impact is likely to be predominantly local rather than global because world commodity markets are currently well supplied and spillovers from local markets to global prices are typically weak. Following Iran’s Nuclear Agreement, the country’s 40 million barrels in floating storage could be made available almost immediately upon sanctions being lifted; and, within a few months, Iran could increase its crude oil production toward pre-sanctions levels. The impact of Iranian exports on global oil and natural gas markets could be large over the longer term provided that Iran attracts the necessary foreign investment and technology to extract its substantial reserves.

Most commodity prices declined in the second quarter of 2015 due to ample supplies and weak demand, especially in industrial commodities (Figure 1). One main exception was the price of crude oil which rebounded early in the quarter on stronger demand but has since weakened owing to a still large global surplus. These trends are expected to persist for the rest of the year, with a modest recovery in 2016 (Figure 2). This issue’s Special Focus looks at China’s and India’s commodity consumption patterns. It concludes that demand from China, and to a lesser extent India, significantly raised global demand for metals and energy—especially coal—and less so for food commodities. This pattern reflected the countries’ different growth models and the way in which consumption responds to income growth.

This note combines and distills existing and new research to inform discussion on the topical policy issue of oil prices. Following four years of relative stability at around $105 per barrel (bbl), oil prices have declined sharply since June 2014 and are expected to remain low for a considerable period of time. The drop in prices likely marks the end of the commodity supercycle that began in the early 2000s. Since the past episodes of such sharp declines coincided with substantial fluctuations in activity and inflation, the causes and consequences of and policy responses to the recent plunge in oil prices have led to intensive debates. This paper addresses four questions at the center of these debates, with particular emphasis on emerging market and developing economies: 1) How does the recent decline in oil prices compare with previous episodes? 2) What are the causes of the sharp drop and what is the outlook for oil price? 3) What are the economic and financial consequences? 4) What are the main policy implications? The decline in oil prices will lead to significant real income shifts from oil exporters to oil importers, likely resulting in a net positive effect for global activity over the medium term. However, several factors could counteract the global growth and inflation implications of the lower oil prices. These include weak global demand and limited scope for additional monetary policy easing in many countries. The disinflationary implications of falling oil prices may be muted by sharp adjustments in currencies and effects of taxes, subsidies, and regulations on prices. Regarding fiscal policy, the loss in oil revenues for exporters will strain public finances, while savings among oil importers could help rebuild fiscal space. Lower oil prices also present a window of opportunity to implement structural reforms. These include, in particular, comprehensive and lasting reforms of fuel subsidies, as well as energy taxes more broadly.

El objectivo de este trabajo consiste en desarrollar una metodologia util que facilite a productores y almacienistas de las variedades tradicionales de manzana del Alto Valle de Rio Negro y Neuquen la toma de decisiones de comercializacion en un contecto de creciente incertidumbre sobre la evolucion de los precios. para ello, se analizan los costes de conservacion a lo largo de la campana y se comparan con los ingresos reales obtenidos y con los que se obtendrian a partir de rediccones de precios realizadas con modelos de series temporales son capaces de generar predicciones comparables en precision a las generadas por los agentes que trabajan en el sector, si bien estas ultimas son mejores conforme aumenta el horizonte de la prediccion. Finalmente, las decisiones que adoptan los productores en base a sus expectativas son similares a las que se hubiesen obtenido con los precios predichos, sugiriendo concentrar las ventas en los ultimos meses del ano...The aim of this paper is to provide a methodological framework to facilitate farmers and warehouses managers the adoption of marketing strategies, in an environment of increasing uncertainty about price evolution. In this paper we make a rigorous analysis of conservation costs along the marketing season and we compare them with revenues calculated using both real and forecasted prices. Results suggest a similar forecasting performance of time series models against experts forecasts, although the latter are better as the forecasting horizon lengthens. Time series forecasts also provide good results in terms of marketing margins and suggest concentrating sales in the last part of the marketing season just when market prices are higher. This is consistent with actual warehouses common practice.

Articles included: Distribution of an Average Bale of U. S. Cotton (Edward H. Glade, Jr. and Anne P. Alderman) --- Changes in the U. S. Cotton Storage Industry (O. A. Cleveland, Jr. and Joseph L. Ghetti) --- Knit Cloth and Apparel Trade Patterns (John V. Lawler) --- Some Recent Trends in the Domestic Marketing System for Textile Fibers and Products (Ray S. Corkern) --- Cost of Merchandising U. S. Cotton, 1974/75 Season (Whitman M. Chandler, Jr. and Edward H. Glade, Jr.) --- Competitive Relationships Between Cotton and Other Crops, by Region, 1976 and 1977 (Sam Evans) --- Market Trends and Margins for Cotton Denim (Edward H. Glade, Jr.) --- The Impact of Cotton Textile Imports on the Domestic Market (Russell G. Barlowe and John V. Lawler) --- Gin Investment Costs in the United States (O. A. Cleveland, Jr. and Joseph L. Ghetti) --- The Decade Ahead for U. S. Soybeans (Duane Hacklander) --- U. S. Edible Fats and Oils Refining Capacities, 1975 (George W. Kromer and Stanley A. Gazelle) --- Views on the 1975/76 Sunflower Seed Situation in the Soviet Union (George W. Kromer) --- Costs of Production for Soybeans, Peanuts, and Flaxseed for 1974, 1975, and 1976 (Alan S. Walter and Gail D. Garst) --- Forecasting Retail Margarine Prices (Paul D. Velde and Stanley A. Gazelle)., This publication is a collection of selected articles dealing with current marketing topics relating to cotton and oilcrops. The purpose of these reprints is to provide, under one cover, a readily available source of marketing information. These special articles originally appeared in various issues of the Cotton and Wool Situation and the Fats and Oils Situation which are published five and four times a year respectively by the Fibers and Oils Program Area, Commodity Economics Division. The Fibers and Oils Program Area conducts a broad range of research activities covering each segment of the production-marketing system for cotton and oilcrops in addition to providing current situation and outlook intelligence for cotton, wool, mohair, and fats and oils.