Search

Importance: Since 2013, the American College of Cardiology (ACC) and American Heart Association (AHA) have recommended the pooled cohort equations (PCEs) for estimating the 10-year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). An AHA scientific advisory group recently developed the Predicting Risk of cardiovascular disease EVENTs (PREVENT) equations, which incorporated kidney measures, removed race as an input, and improved calibration in contemporary populations. PREVENT is known to produce ASCVD risk predictions that are lower than those produced by the PCEs, but the potential clinical implications have not been quantified., Objective: To estimate the number of US adults who would experience changes in risk categorization, treatment eligibility, or clinical outcomes when applying PREVENT equations to existing ACC and AHA guidelines., Design, Setting, and Participants: Nationally representative cross-sectional sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys of 2011 to March 2020, which had response rates ranging from 47% to 70%., Main Outcomes and Measures: Differences in predicted 10-year ASCVD risk, ACC and AHA risk categorization, eligibility for statin or antihypertensive therapy, and projected occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke., Results: In a nationally representative sample of 7765 US adults aged 30 to 79 years (median age, 53 years; 51.3% women), it was estimated that using PREVENT equations would reclassify approximately half of US adults to lower ACC and AHA risk categories (53.0% [95% CI, 51.2%-54.8%]) and very few US adults to higher risk categories (0.41% [95% CI, 0.25%-0.62%]). The number of US adults receiving or recommended for preventive treatment would decrease by an estimated 14.3 million (95% CI, 12.6 million-15.9 million) for statin therapy and 2.62 million (95% CI, 2.02 million-3.21 million) for antihypertensive therapy. The study estimated that, over 10 years, these decreases in treatment eligibility could result in 107 000 additional occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke. Eligibility changes would affect twice as many men as women and a greater proportion of Black adults than White adults., Conclusion and Relevance: By assigning lower ASCVD risk predictions, application of the PREVENT equations to existing treatment thresholds could reduce eligibility for statin and antihypertensive therapy among 15.8 million US adults.

Objective: Preventing the onset of skin malignancies is feasible by reducing exposure to ultraviolet radiation. We reviewed published economic evaluations of primary prevention initiatives in the past decade, to support investment decisions for skin cancer prevention., Methods: We assessed cost-effectiveness, cost-utility and benefit-cost analyses published from 1 September 2013. Seven databases were searched on 18 July 2023 and updated on 15 November 2023. Studies must have reported outcomes in terms of monetary costs, life years, quality-adjusted life years or variant thereof. A narrative synthesis was undertaken and reporting quality was assessed by three reviewers using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist., Results: In total, 12 studies were included with five studies located in Australia; three in North America and the remaining four in Europe. Interventions included restricting the use of indoor tanning devices (7 studies), television advertising, multi-component sun safety campaigns, shade structures plus protective clothing provision for outdoor workers and provision of melanoma genomic risk information to individuals. Most studies constructed Markov cohort models and adopted a societal cost perspective. Overall, the reporting quality of the studies was high. Studies found highly favourable returns on investment ranging from US$0.35 for every $1 spent on prevention, up to €3.60 for every €1 spent. Other studies showed substantial skin cancers avoided, gains in life years, quality-adjusted survival, and societal cost savings., Conclusions: From both population health and economic perspectives, allocating limited health care resources to primary prevention of skin cancer is highly favourable., (© 2024. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Switzerland AG.)

Each year, malignant melanoma accounts for 57 000 deaths globally. If current rates continue, there will be an estimated 510 000 new cases annually and 96 000 deaths by 2040. Melanoma and keratinocyte cancers (KCs) incur a large societal burden. Using a mathematical population model, we performed an economic evaluation of the SunSmart program in the state of Western Australia (WA), a primary prevention program to reduce the incidence of skin cancer, versus no program. A societal perspective was taken combining costs to the health system, patients and lost productivity. The model combined data from pragmatic trial evidence of sun protection, epidemiological studies and national cost reports. The main outcomes modelled were societal and government costs, skin cancer counts, melanoma deaths, life years and quality-adjusted life years. Over the next 20 years, the model predicted that implementing the WA SunSmart program would prevent 13 728 KCs, 636 melanomas and 46 melanoma deaths per 100 000 population. Furthermore, 251 life years would be saved, 358 quality-adjusted life years gained and AU$2.95 million in cost savings to society per 100 000 population would be achieved. Key drivers of the model were the rate reduction of benign lesions from sunscreen use, the costs of purchasing sunscreen and the effectiveness of reducing KCs in sunscreen users. The likelihood of WA SunSmart being cost-effective was 90.1%. For the WA Government, the estimated return on investment was $8.70 gained for every $1 invested. Primary prevention of skin cancer is a cost-effective strategy for preventing skin cancers., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Aims: To conduct a contemporary cost-effectiveness analysis examining the use of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) for primary prevention in patients with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM)., Methods: A discrete-time Markov model was used to determine the cost-effectiveness of different ICD decision-making rules for implantation. Several scenarios were investigated, including the reference scenario of implantation rates according to observed real-world practice. A 12-year time horizon with an annual cycle length was used. Transition probabilities used in the model were obtained using Bayesian analysis. The study has been reported according to the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards checklist., Results: Using a 5-year SCD risk threshold of 6% was cheaper than current practice and has marginally better total quality adjusted life years (QALYs). This is the most cost-effective of the options considered, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £834 per QALY. Sensitivity analyses highlighted that this decision is largely driven by what health-related quality of life (HRQL) is attributed to ICD patients and time horizon., Conclusion: We present a timely new perspective on HCM-ICD cost-effectiveness, using methods reflecting real-world practice. While we have shown that a 6% 5-year SCD risk cut-off provides the best cohort stratification to aid ICD decision-making, this will also be influenced by the particular values of costs and HRQL for subgroups or at a local level. The process of explicitly demonstrating the main factors, which drive conclusions from such an analysis will help to inform shared decision-making in this complex area for all stakeholders concerned., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

Objectives: In 2016, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention supported 5 local health departments (LHDs) to implement teen dating violence and youth violence primary prevention strategies across multiple levels of the social-ecological model and build capacity for the expansion of such prevention efforts at the local level. The objective of this study was to estimate the total cost of implementing primary prevention strategies for all LHDs across 3 years of program implementation., Methods: We used a microcosting analytic approach to identify resources and compute costs for all prevention strategies implemented by LHDs. We computed the total program cost, total and average cost per strategy by social-ecological model level, and average cost of implementation per participant served by the program. All costs were inflated via the monthly Consumer Price Index and reported in August 2020 dollars., Results: For 3 years of program implementation, the total estimated cost of implementing teen dating violence and youth violence primary prevention strategies was >$7.1 million across all 5 LHDs. The largest shares of program-related costs were program staff (55.9%-57.0%) and contracts (22.4%-25.5%). Among prevention strategies, the largest share of total costs was for strategies implemented at the community level of the social-ecological model (42.8%)., Conclusions: The findings from this analysis provide a first look at the total costs of implementing comprehensive teen dating violence and youth violence primary prevention strategies and serve as a foundation for investments in local violence prevention funding for young people., Competing Interests: Declaration of Conflicting InterestsThe authors declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article.

Background: Icosapent ethyl (IPE) is approved for the prevention of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in patients with hypertriglyceridemia. However, due to budget constraints, access to IPE will inevitably be limited to a fraction of eligible patients. To help maximize value for money spent, we estimated the number of preventable MACE when providing IPE for primary versus secondary prevention., Methods: The number of preventable MACE was estimated by dividing the available budget by the cost needed to treat (CNT) to prevent one MACE. CNT was calculated as the product of the number needed to treat (NNT) to prevent 1 MACE by therapy cost. NNT values were determined according to the Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with Icosapent Ethyl-Intervention Trial (REDUCE-IT) results. The budget limit was set as the United States' threshold suggested by the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. Sensitivity analysis was performed regarding the cost of IPE in the United States., Results: The NNT to prevent 1 MACE over 4.9 years in the Reduction of Cardiovascular Events with Icosapent Ethyl-Intervention Trial primary prevention cohort was 59 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24-∞) versus 14 (11-21) for secondary prevention. At an annual IPE cost of $2915, the CNT to prevent 1 MACE was $842,726 (95% CI: $342,804-∞) and $199,969 ($157,118-$299,953) accordingly. A total of $819 million worth of IPE can avoid 4762 MACE (95% CI: 0-11,707) versus 20,069 (13,379-25,541), when provided as primary versus secondary prevention therapy; P < .001. The number of avoided MACE is sensitive to IPE price., Conclusions: Prioritizing IPE therapy for patients with an established cardiovascular disease may provide significantly more value for money than primary prevention., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background: Inherited genetic variants can modify the cancer-chemopreventive effect of aspirin. We evaluated the clinical and economic value of genotype-guided aspirin use for colorectal cancer chemoprevention in average-risk individuals., Methods: A decision analytical model compared genotype-guided aspirin use versus no genetic testing, no aspirin. The model simulated 100,000 adults ≥50 years of age with average colorectal cancer and cardiovascular disease risk. Low-dose aspirin daily starting at age 50 years was recommended only for those with a genetic test result indicating a greater reduction in colorectal cancer risk with aspirin use. The primary outcomes were quality-adjusted life-years (QALY), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER)., Results: The mean cost of using genotype-guided aspirin was $187,109 with 19.922 mean QALYs compared with $186,464 with 19.912 QALYs for no genetic testing, no aspirin. Genotype-guided aspirin yielded an ICER of $66,243 per QALY gained, and was cost-effective in 58% of simulations at the $100,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. Genotype-guided aspirin was associated with 1,461 fewer polyps developed, 510 fewer colorectal cancer cases, and 181 fewer colorectal cancer-related deaths. This strategy prevented 1,078 myocardial infarctions with 1,430 gastrointestinal bleeding events, and 323 intracranial hemorrhage cases compared with no genetic testing, no aspirin., Conclusions: Genotype-guided aspirin use for colorectal cancer chemoprevention may offer a cost-effective approach for the future management of average-risk individuals., Impact: A genotype-guided aspirin strategy may prevent colorectal cancer, colorectal cancer-related deaths, and myocardial infarctions, while minimizing bleeding adverse events. This model establishes a framework for genetically-guided aspirin use for targeted chemoprevention of colorectal cancer with application toward commercial testing in this population., (©2021 American Association for Cancer Research.)

Objective: Approximately 84 million people in the USA have pre-diabetes, but only a fraction of them receive proven effective therapies to prevent type 2 diabetes. We estimated the value of prioritizing individuals at highest risk of progression to diabetes for treatment, compared to non-targeted treatment of individuals meeting inclusion criteria for the Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP)., Methods: Using microsimulation to project outcomes in the DPP trial population, we compared two interventions to usual care: (1) lifestyle modification and (2) metformin administration. For each intervention, we compared targeted and non-targeted strategies, assuming either limited or unlimited program capacity. We modeled the individualized risk of developing diabetes and projected diabetic outcomes to yield lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy, from which we estimated net monetary benefits (NMB) for both lifestyle and metformin versus usual care., Results: Compared to usual care, lifestyle modification conferred positive benefits and reduced lifetime costs for all eligible individuals. Metformin's NMB was negative for the lowest population risk quintile. By avoiding use when costs outweighed benefits, targeted administration of metformin conferred a benefit of $500 per person. If only 20% of the population could receive treatment, when prioritizing individuals based on diabetes risk, rather than treating a 20% random sample, the difference in NMB ranged from $14,000 to $20,000 per person., Conclusions: Targeting active diabetes prevention to patients at highest risk could improve health outcomes and reduce costs compared to providing the same intervention to a similar number of patients with pre-diabetes without targeted selection.

This study estimated sustained impacts and long-term benefits and costs of the Communities That Care (CTC) prevention system, implemented and evaluated in a longitudinal cluster-randomized trial involving 24 communities in seven states. Analyses utilized reports from a longitudinal panel of 4407 participants, followed since the study's baseline in grade 5, with most recent follow-up 12 years later at age 23. Impacts on lifetime abstinence from primary outcomes of substance use and antisocial behavior were estimated using generalized linear mixed Poisson regression analysis, adjusted for individual and community-level covariates. Possible cascading effects on 4-year college completion, major depressive disorder, and generalized anxiety disorder through age 23 were evaluated as secondary outcomes. CTC had a statistically significant global effect on primary outcomes and also on combined primary and secondary outcomes. Among primary outcomes, point estimates suggested absolute improvements in lifetime abstinence of 3.5 to 6.1% in the intervention arm and relative improvements of 13 to 55%; 95% confidence intervals revealed some uncertainty in estimates. Among secondary outcomes, 4-year college completion was 1.9% greater among young adults from intervention communities, a 20% relative improvement. Mental health outcomes were approximately the same across trial arms. Although CTC had small sustained effects through age 23, benefit-cost analyses indicated CTC was reliably cost beneficial, with a net present value of $7152 (95% credible interval: $1253 to $15,268) per participant from primary impacts and $17,919 ($306 to $39,186) when secondary impacts were also included. It remained cost beneficial even when impacts were adjusted downward due to the involvement of CTC's developer in the trial. Findings suggest that broader dissemination of CTC could improve public health and individual lives in the long term and generate positive net benefits to society.

Background: Expanding statin use may help to alleviate the excess burden of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in people living with HIV (PLHIV). Pravastatin and pitavastatin are preferred agents due to their lack of substantial interaction with antiretroviral therapy. We aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of pravastatin and pitavastatin for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease among PLHIV in the United States., Methods: We developed a microsimulation model that randomly selected (with replacement) individuals from the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs study with follow-up between 2013 and 2016. Our study population was PLHIV aged 40 to 75 years, stable on antiretroviral therapy, and not currently using lipid-lowering therapy. Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were assigned in annual cycles and discounted at 3% per year. We assumed a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY gained. The interventions assessed were as follows: (1) treating no one with statins; (2) treating everyone with generic pravastatin 40 mg/day (drug cost $236/year) and (3) treating everyone with branded pitavastatin 4 mg/day (drug cost $2,828/year). The model simulated each individual's probability of experiencing atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease over 20 years., Results: Persons receiving pravastatin accrued 0.024 additional QALYs compared with those not receiving a statin, at an incremental cost of $1338, giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $56,000/QALY gained. Individuals receiving pitavastatin accumulated 0.013 additional QALYs compared with those using pravastatin, at an additional cost of $18,251, giving an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $1,444,000/QALY gained. These findings were most sensitive to the pill burden associated with daily statin administration, statin costs, statin efficacy and baseline atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, no statin was optimal in 5.2% of simulations, pravastatin was optimal in 94.8% of simulations and pitavastatin was never optimal., Conclusions: Pravastatin was projected to be cost-effective compared with no statin. With substantial price reduction, pitavastatin may be cost-effective compared with pravastatin. These findings bode well for the expanded use of statins among PLHIV in the United States. To gain greater confidence in our conclusions it is important to generate strong, HIV-specific estimates on the efficacy of statins and the quality-of-life burden associated with taking an additional daily pill., (© 2021 The Authors. Journal of the International AIDS Society published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of the International AIDS Society.)

Objective: The Da Qing Diabetes Prevention program (DQDP) was a randomized lifestyle modification intervention conducted in 1986 for the prevention and control of type 2 diabetes in individuals with impaired glucose tolerance. The current study estimated long-term cost-effectiveness of the program based on the health utilities from the Chinese population., Methods: A Markov Monte Carlo model was developed to estimate the impact of the intervention from the healthcare system perspective. The analysis was run over 30-year and lifetime periods and costs were estimated respectively as health management service costs. Baseline characteristics and intervention effects were assessed from the DQDP. Utilities and costs were generated from relevant literature. The outcome measures were program cost per quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the intervention. Sensitivity analyses and threshold analyses were performed., Results: Using a 30-year horizon, the intervention strategy was cost-saving and was associated with better health outcomes (increase of 0.74 QALYs per intervention participant). Using a lifetime horizon, the intervention strategy was cost-saving and was associated with additional 1.44 QALYs. Sensitivity analyses showed that the overall ICER was most strongly influenced by the hazard ratio of cardiovascular disease event., Conclusions: The Da Qing lifestyle intervention in a Chinese population with impaired glucose tolerance is likely to translate into substantial economic value. It is cost-saving over a 30-year time and lifetime frame., Competing Interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Landmark reports from reputable sources have concluded that the United States wastes hundreds of billions of dollars every year on medical care that does not improve health outcomes. While there is widespread agreement over how wasteful medical care spending is defined, there is no consensus on its magnitude or categories. A shared understanding of the magnitude and components of the issue may aid in systematically reducing wasteful spending and creating opportunities for these funds to improve public health.To this end, we performed a review and crosswalk analysis of the literature to retrieve comprehensive estimates of wasteful medical care spending. We abstracted each source's definitions, categories of waste, and associated dollar amounts. We synthesized and reclassified waste into 6 categories: clinical inefficiencies, missed prevention opportunities, overuse, administrative waste, excessive prices, and fraud and abuse.Aggregate estimates of waste varied from $600 billion to more than $1.9 trillion per year, or roughly $1800 to $5700 per person per year. Wider recognition by public health stakeholders of the human and economic costs of medical waste has the potential to catalyze health system transformation.

Objective: To estimate using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model Version 2 (UKPDS-OM2) the impact of delaying type 2 diabetes onset on costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy using trial participants who developed diabetes in the NAVIGATOR (Nateglinide And Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research) study., Research Design and Methods: We simulated the impact of delaying diabetes onset by 1-9 years, utilizing data from the 3,058 of 9,306 NAVIGATOR trial participants who developed type 2 diabetes. Costs and utility weights associated with diabetes and diabetes-related complications were obtained for the U.S. and U.K. settings, with costs expressed in 2017 values. We estimated discounted lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with 95% CIs., Results: Gains in QALYs increased from 0.02 (U.S. setting, 95% CI 0.01, 0.03) to 0.15 (U.S. setting, 95% CI 0.10, 0.21) as the imposed time to diabetes onset was increased from 1 to 9 years, respectively. Savings in complication costs increased from $1,388 (95% CI $1,092, $1,669) for a 1-year delay to $8,437 (95% CI $6,611, $10,197) for a delay of 9 years. Interventions costing up to $567-$2,680 and £201-£947 per year would be cost-effective at $100,000 per QALY and £20,000 per QALY thresholds in the U.S. and U.K., respectively, as the modeled delay in diabetes onset was increased from 1 to 9 years., Conclusions: Simulating a hypothetical diabetes-delaying intervention provides guidance concerning the maximum cost and minimum delay in diabetes onset needed to be cost-effective. These results can inform the ongoing debate about diabetes prevention strategies and the design of future intervention studies., (© 2020 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia in the world with continued rising prevalence, significant morbidity and mortality, and a substantial financial burden. It has been associated with numerous modifiable risk factors and chronic medical conditions. Treatment of these modifiable risk factors has improved rhythm control of atrial fibrillation as well as demonstrated cost-effectiveness. Primary prevention of underlying chronic disease should be incorporated into the treatment paradigm for AF. Comprehensive management with integrated care including the patient, allied health professionals, primary care physicians, and specialists will be needed to reverse the epidemiological trends, improve quality of life, and mortality.

Allocation of statin therapy for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in borderline- and intermediate-risk patients has traditionally been based on population-based global risk assessment and other clinical and laboratory characteristics. Patient-specific treatment decisions are needed to provide maximal benefit and avoid unnecessary treatment. Guideline-based lipid management proposes that coronary artery calcium scoring is reasonable to implement in patients with a 10-year risk of 5.0% to 19.9% (borderline to intermediate risk) by using the pooled cohort equations when the decision about whether to initiate statin therapy is uncertain. We report data from both observational studies and a large primary prevention randomized controlled trial that support the position that this decision is, in fact, uncertain in about half of such patients because of risk misclassification. Such misclassification can be largely avoided by more widespread implementation of coronary calcium scoring, which helps to identify those with coronary artery calcium scores of 0, a finding associated with a less than 5.0% 10-year probability of an ASCVD event. Deferral of statin therapy in such patients, in the absence of smoking, diabetes, or a family history of premature ASCVD, provides more individualized and appropriate care and avoids the expense and potential adverse effects of statin therapy in those with low potential for absolute risk reduction. A rationale is also provided for the importance of coronary artery calcium scoring in women 50 years and older, possibly in place of 1 screening mammogram in women at least 55 years of age to avoid incremental radiation exposure, on the basis of the substantially higher lifetime risk of morbidity and mortality from ASCVD than from breast cancer. In patients with borderline or intermediate ASCVD risk, coronary artery calcium scoring should be used, whenever possible, as an aid to rational statin allocation for the primary prevention of ASCVD., (Copyright © 2020 Mayo Foundation for Medical Education and Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To describe and summarize evidence on economic evaluations (EEs) of primary caries prevention in preschool children aged 2 to 5 years and to evaluate the reporting quality of full EE studies using a quality assessment tool., Methods: A systematic literature search was conducted in several databases. Full and partial EEs were included. The reporting quality of full EE studies was assessed using the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) checklist., Results: A total of 808 studies were identified, and 39 were included in the review. Most papers were published between 2000 and 2017 and originated in the United States and the United Kingdom. The most common type of intervention investigated was a complex multicomponent intervention, followed by water fluoridation. Cost analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis were the most frequently used types of EE. One study employed cost-utility analysis. The proportion of full EEs increased over time. The parameters not reported well included study perspective, baseline year, sensitivity analysis, and discount rate. The CHEERS items that were most often unmet were characterizing uncertainty, study perspective, study parameters, and estimating resources and costs., Conclusions: Within the past 2 decades, there has been an increase in the number of EEs of caries prevention interventions in preschool children. There was inconsistency in how EEs were conducted and reported. Lack of preference-based health-related quality-of-life measure utilization in the field was identified. The use of appropriate study methodologies and greater attention to recommended EE design are required to further improve quality., (Copyright © 2020 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Federal funds have been spent to reduce the disproportionate effects of HIV/AIDS on racial/ethnic minority groups in the United States. We investigated the association between federal domestic HIV funding and age-adjusted HIV death rates by race/ethnicity in the United States during 1999-2017., Methods: We analyzed HIV funding data from the Kaiser Family Foundation by federal fiscal year (FFY) and US age-adjusted death rates (AADRs) by race/ethnicity (Hispanic, non-Hispanic white, non-Hispanic black, and Asian/Pacific Islander and American Indian/Alaska Native [API+AI/AN]) from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention WONDER detailed mortality files. We fit joinpoint regression models to estimate the annual percentage change (APC), average APC, and changes in AADRs per billion US dollars in HIV funding, with 95% confidence intervals (CIs). For 19 data points, the number of joinpoints ranged from 0 to 4 on the basis of rules set by the program or by the user. A Monte Carlo permutation test indicated significant ( P < .05) changes at joinpoints, and 2-sided t tests indicated significant APCs in AADRs., Results: Domestic HIV funding increased from $10.7 billion in FFY 1999 to $26.3 billion in FFY 2017, but AADRs decreased at different rates for each racial/ethnic group. The average rate of change in AADR per US billion dollars was -9.4% (95% CI, -10.9% to -7.8%) for Hispanic residents, -7.8% (95% CI, -9.0% to -6.6%) for non-Hispanic black residents, -6.7% (95% CI, -9.3% to -4.0%) for non-Hispanic white residents, and -5.2% (95% CI, -7.8% to -2.5%) for non-Hispanic API+AI/AN residents., Conclusions: Increased domestic HIV funding was associated with faster decreases in age-adjusted HIV death rates for Hispanic and non-Hispanic black residents than for residents in other racial/ethnic groups. Increasing US HIV funding could be associated with decreasing future racial/ethnic disparities in the rate of HIV-related deaths.

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of a computer-guided quality improvement intervention for primary health care management of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in people at high risk., Design: Modelled cost-effectiveness analysis of the HealthTracker intervention and usual care for people with high CVD risk, based on TORPEDO trial data on prescribing patterns, changes in intermediate risk factors (low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure), and Framingham risk scores., Participants: Hypothetical population of people with high CVD risk attending primary health care services in a New South Wales primary health network (PHN) of mean size., Intervention: HealthTracker, integrated into health care provider electronic health record systems, provides real time decision support, risk communication, a clinical audit tool, and a web portal for performance feedback., Main Outcome Measures: Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs): difference in costs of the intervention and usual care divided by number of CVD events averted with HealthTracker., Results: The estimated numbers of major CVD events over five years per 1000 patients at high CVD risk were lower in PHNs using HealthTracker, both for patients with prior CVD events (secondary prevention; 259 v 267 with usual care) and for those without prior events (primary prevention; 168 v 176). Medication costs were higher and hospitalisation costs lower with HealthTracker than with usual care for both primary and secondary prevention. The estimated ICER for one averted CVD event was $7406 for primary prevention and $17 988 for secondary prevention., Conclusion: Modelled cost-effectiveness analyses provide information that can assist decisions about investing in health care quality improvement interventions. We estimate that HealthTracker could prevent major CVD events for less than $20 000 per event averted., Trial Registration (torpedo): Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry, ACTRN 12611000478910., (© 2020 AMPCo Pty Ltd.)

To prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), some types of public spaces have been shut down while others remain open. These decisions constitute a judgment about the relative danger and benefits of those locations. Using mobility data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and economic statistics, we measure the relative transmission reduction benefit and social cost of closing 26 categories of US locations. Our categories include types of shops, entertainments, and service providers. We rank categories by their trade-off of social benefits and transmission risk via dominance across 13 dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that, from February to March 2020, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures indicate should be closed first., Competing Interests: The authors declare no competing interest., (Copyright © 2020 the Author(s). Published by PNAS.)

Background: Statin medications reduce the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). China's new central government medicine procurement policy lowered statin prices by five-fold or more, which may impact the cost-effectiveness of statin therapy., Objective: To explore the impact of China's 2019 centralized medicine procurement policy on the cost-effectiveness of statins treatment for primary ASCVD prevention., Methods: A microsimulation decision tree analytic model was built using individual participant data from ASCVD-free adults aged 35-64 years (n = 21,265) in the China Multi-provincial Cohort Study. ASCVD incidence, costs (2019 Int$), and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) over a 10-year period from health-care sector and societal perspectives were estimated. Effect and cost-effectiveness of low-dose statins (equivalent potency regimens of simvastatin 20 mg/day, atorvastatin 10 mg/day, or rosuvastatin 5 mg/day) and moderate-dose (double low dose) statins therapy were simulated. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of statin treatment was compared with no treatment by category of 10-year ASCVD risk. New lower prices of statins were from the centralized procurement policy bid-winning announcement file. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses quantified model uncertainty., Results: Low-dose statins interventions reduced 10-year ASCVD incidence by 4.1%, 9.7%, and 15.5% among people with low, moderate, and high risk comparing to no treatment. Lowering statin prices to the 2019 central government procurement policy level could lower the ICER of low-dose statins treatment for high-risk people from Int$ 141,000 to Int$ 51,300 per QALY gained from health-care sector perspective. Moderate-dose statin treatment lowered the ICER compared with the low-dose statins treatment in each ASCVD risk category (Int$ 43,100 vs. Int$ 51,300 per QALY gained from the health-care sector perspective for high risk people). Cost-effectiveness improved progressively with increased baseline ASCVD risk., Conclusion: Implementing low central government prices will substantially improve the cost-effectiveness of statins for primary ASCVD prevention in 35-64-year-old Chinese adults., Competing Interests: The authors have no competing interests to declare., (Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s).)

Existing literature on recent trends in adolescent gambling is scarce. The rapidly changing landscape of gambling, together with the generally applied legal age limits, calls for the continuous monitoring of gambling also among the adolescent population. In Finland, the legal gambling age is 18. We examined changes in adolescents' gambling, gambling expenditure and gambling-related harms from 2011 to 2017. Comparable cross-sectional biennial survey data were collected in 2011, 2013, 2015 and 2017 among 12-18-year-olds (N = 18,857). The main measures were self-reported six-month gambling, average weekly gambling expenditure (€) and harms due to gambling. Data were analyzed using cross-tabulations, χ 2 -tests and linear regression analysis. A significant decline in gambling among minors (aged 12-16-year-olds) was found (β = - 0.253), while no significant changes were observed among 18-year-olds (who are not targeted by the law). The mean gambling expenditure also declined from 2011 to 2017. Adolescent gamblers experienced significantly less (p = .003) gambling-related harms in 2017 (7.4%) compared to 2011 (13.5%). Adolescent gambling and its related negative consequences have become less prevalent in Finland between 2011 and 2017. Further monitoring is necessary to ascertain whether the positive direction will continue. Also, empirical analyses providing evidence of reasons for the observed trend are warranted.

Aims: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and gestational diabetes (GDM) are globally on the rise, accompanied by comorbidities and associated health costs. Increased physical activity, healthy nutrition, and weight loss have shown the potential to prevent T2DM/GDM. Despite this, reaching vulnerable groups remains a key challenge. The aim of this scoping review was to identify barriers and facilitating factors in the prevention of T2DM/GDM in vulnerable groups., Methods: We conducted a systematic literature search in May 2018, updated in September 2019, in several databases (e.g. PubMed, Embase) to identify barriers and facilitating factors in the prevention of T2DM/GDM in vulnerable groups. Two reviewers independently screened the results. Extracted data was charted, categorized, and summarized., Results: We included 125 articles. Ninety-eight studies were extracted, and eight categories of barriers and facilitating factors were formed. The most common categories of barriers were limited knowledge, family/friends, and economic factors, and the most common categories of facilitating factors were family/friends, social support, and knowledge., Conclusion: This scoping review identified various barriers and facilitating factors in vulnerable groups. Preventive interventions should consider these barriers and facilitating factors in developing preventive interventions or in adapting existing ones., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: Effective interventions to reduce the public health burden of HIV/AIDS can vary in their ability to deliver value at different levels of scale and in different epidemiological contexts. Our objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of HIV treatment and prevention interventions implemented at previously documented scales of delivery in six US cities with diverse HIV microepidemics., Design: Dynamic HIV transmission model-based cost-effectiveness analysis., Methods: We identified and estimated previously documented scale of delivery and costs for 16 evidence-based interventions from the US CDC's Compendium of Evidence-Based Interventions and Best Practices for HIV Prevention. Using a model calibrated for Atlanta, Baltimore, Los Angeles, Miami, New York City and Seattle, we estimated averted HIV infections, quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (healthcare perspective; 3% discount rate, 2018$US), for each intervention and city (10-year implementation) compared with the status quo over a 20-year time horizon., Results: Increased HIV testing was cost-saving or cost-effective across cities. Targeted preexposure prophylaxis for high-risk MSM was cost-saving in Miami and cost-effective in Atlanta ($6123/QALY), Baltimore ($18 333/QALY) and Los Angeles ($86 117/QALY). Interventions designed to improve antiretroviral therapy initiation provided greater value than other treatment engagement interventions. No single intervention was projected to reduce HIV incidence by more than 10.1% in any city., Conclusion: Combination implementation strategies should be tailored to local epidemiological contexts to provide the most value. Complementary strategies addressing factors hindering access to HIV care will be necessary to meet targets for HIV elimination in the United States.

Background: Low- and middle-income countries are facing an increasing burden of disability and death due to cardiovascular diseases. Policy makers and healthcare providers alike need resource estimation tools to improve healthcare delivery and to strengthen healthcare systems to address this burden. We estimated the direct medical costs of primary prevention, screening, and management for cardiovascular diseases in a primary healthcare center in Nepal based on the Global Hearts evidence based treatment protocols for risk-based management., Methods: We adapted the World Health Organization's non-communicable disease costing tool and built a model to predict the annual cost of primary CVD prevention, screening, and management at a primary healthcare center level. We used a one-year time horizon and estimated the cost from the Nepal government's perspective. We used Nepal health insurance board's price for medicines and laboratory tests, and used Nepal government's salary for human resource cost. With the model, we estimated annual incremental cost per case, cost for the entire population, and cost per capita. We also estimated the amount of medicines for one-year, annual number of laboratory tests, and the monthly incremental work load of physicians and nurses who deliver these services., Results: For a primary healthcare center with a catchment population of 10,000, the estimated cost to screen and treat 50% of eligible patients is USD21.53 per case and averages USD1.86 per capita across the catchment population. The cost of screening and risk profiling only was estimated to be USD2.49 per case. At same coverage level, we estimated that an average physician's workload will increase annually by 190 h and by 111 h for nurses, i.e., additional 28.5 workdays for physicians and 16.7 workdays for nurses. The total annual cost could amount up to USD18,621 for such a primary healthcare center., Conclusion: This is a novel study for a PHC-based, primary CVD risk-based management program in Nepal, which can provide insights for programmatic and policy planners at the Nepalese municipal, provincial and central levels in implementing the WHO Global Hearts Initiative. The costing model can serve as a tool for financial resource planning for primary prevention, screening, and management for cardiovascular diseases in other low- and middle-income country settings globally., Competing Interests: Competing interestsAA and DC are employed by and, SH, PN, and DS work in partnership with a nonprofit healthcare company (Nyaya Health Nepal, with support from the USA-based non-profit, Possible) that delivers free healthcare in rural Nepal using funds from the Government of Nepal and other public, philanthropic, and private foundation sources. SH and DC are employed part time by and DC is a faculty member at a public university (University of Washington). DC is a faculty member and SH is employed by a private medical school (Arnhold Institute for Global Health at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai). AK is a medical resident at a private medical school (NYU Langone Health). PN is a graduate student at a public university (University of North Carolina). AS is a faculty member at a private university (Kathmandu University School of Medical Sciences). AS is a faculty member at a private university (Yale School of Public Health). RN is employed by a nonprofit organization (RTI International) providing research and technical services using funds from public sector research funding and service contracts. DS is employed by an academic medical center (Brigham and Women’s Hospital) that receives public sector research funding, as well as revenue through private sector fee-for-service medical transactions and private foundation grants. DS is employed by an academic medical center (Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center) that receives public sector research funding, as well as revenue through private sector fee-for-service medical transactions and private foundation grants. DS is a faculty member at a private university (Harvard Medical School). DS is employed by an academic research center (Ariadne Labs) that is jointly supported by an academic medical center (Brigham and Women’s Hospital) and a private university (Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health) via public sector research funding and private philanthropy. All authors have read and understood Global Health Research and Policy’s policy on competing interests, and declare that we have no competing financial interests. The authors do, however, believe strongly that healthcare is a public good, not a private commodity., (© The Author(s) 2020.)

The use of aspirin for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) is associated with lower rates of cardiovascular events but increased risks of bleeding complications. We aimed to examine the cost-effectiveness of aspirin therapy for primary prevention of CVD in Chinese DM patients. A life-long Markov model was developed to compare aspirin therapy (100mg daily) versus no use of aspirin in DM patients with no history of CVD. Model validation was conducted by comparing the simulated event rates with data reported in a clinical trial. Direct medical costs and quality-adjusted life-years gained (QALYs) were the primary outcomes from the perspective of healthcare system in China. Sensitivity analyses were performed to examine the uncertainty of model inputs. Base-case analysis showed aspirin therapy was more costly (USD1,086 versus USD819) with higher QALYs gained (11.94 versus 11.86 QALYs) compared to no use of aspirin. The base-case results were sensitive to the odds ratio of all-cause death in aspirin therapy versus no use of aspirin. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that aspirin therapy gained an additional 0.066 QALYs (95% CI: -0.167 QALYs-0.286 QALYs) at higher cost by USD352 (95% CI: USD130-644)). Using 30,000 USD/QALY as willingness-to-pay threshold, aspirin therapy and no use of aspirin were the preferred option in 68.71% and 31.29% of 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations, respectively. In conclusion, aspirin therapy appears to be cost-effective compared with no use of aspirin in primary prevention of CVD in Chinese DM patients., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Importance: American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association cholesterol guidelines prioritize primary prevention statin therapy based on 10-year absolute risk (AR10) of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, given the same AR10, patients with higher levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) experience greater absolute risk reduction from statin therapy., Objectives: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of expanding preventive statin treatment eligibility from standard care to patients at borderline risk (AR10, 5.0%-7.4%) for ASCVD and with high levels of LDL-C and to estimate cost-effectiveness of statin treatment across ranges of age, sex, AR10, and LDL-C levels., Design, Setting, and Participants: This study evaluated 100 simulated cohorts, each including 1 million ASCVD-free survey respondents (50% men and 50% women) aged 40 years at baseline. Cohorts were created by probabilistic sampling of the 1999-2014 US National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys from the perspective of the US health care sector. The CVD Policy Model microsimulation version projected lifetime health and cost outcomes. Probability of first-ever coronary heart disease or stroke event was estimated by analysis of 6 pooled US cohort studies and recalibrated to match contemporary event rates. Other model variables were derived from national surveys, meta-analyses, and published literature. Data were analyzed from May 15, 2018, through June 10, 2019., Exposures: Four statin treatment strategies were compared: (1) treat all patients with AR10 of at least 7.5%, diabetes, or LDL-C of at least 190 mg/dL (standard care); (2) add treatment for borderline risk and LDL-C levels of 160 to 189 mg/dL; (3) add treatment for borderline risk and LDL-C levels of 130 to 159 mg/dL; and (4) add treatment for remainder of patients with AR10 of at least 5.0%. Statin treatment was also compared with no statin treatment in age, sex, AR10, and LDL-C strata., Main Outcomes and Measures: Lifetime quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) and costs (2019 US dollars) were projected and discounted 3.0% annually. The primary outcome was the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio., Results: In these 100 simulated cohorts, each with 1 million patients aged 40 years at baseline (50% women and 50% men), adding preventive statins to individuals with borderline AR10 and LDL-C levels of 160 to 189 mg/dL would be cost-saving; further treating borderline AR10 and LDL-C levels of 130 to 159 mg/dL would also be cost-saving; and treating all individuals with AR10 of at least 5.0% would be highly cost-effective ($33 558/QALY) and would prevent the most ASCVD events. Within age, AR10, and sex categories, individuals with higher baseline LDL-C levels gained more QALYs from statin therapy. Cost-effectiveness increased with LDL-C level and AR10., Conclusions and Relevance: In this study, lifetime statin treatment of patients in a hypothetical cohort with borderline ASCVD risk and LDL-C levels of 160 to 189 mg/dL was found to be cost-saving. Results suggest that treating all patients at borderline risk regardless of LDL-C level would likely be highly cost-effective.

To assess the cost-effectiveness of the primary prevention of fragility hip fractures through opportunistic risk-based screening using FRAX ® among women aged 70 to 89 years, and the subsequent treatment with alendronate in women at high-risk, from the Spanish national health system perspective. We performed a discrete-event simulation model. Women were categorized in low, intermediate and high-risk of fragility hip fracture through screening based on the FRAX ® risk assessment tool score (Spanish version). Low-risk women received lifestyle recommendations whereas the high-risk group was assigned to alendronate treatment. For women at intermediate-risk, treatment decision was based on a recalculated score considering bone mineral density (BMD). The cost-effectiveness analysis tested six scenarios defined by different FRAX ® cut-off values assessing the incremental costs per averted fracture in 20 years. Deterministic sensitivity analysis was performed. We included a random sample of 5146 women obtained from a Spanish cohort of women referred for BMD. The most cost-effective intervention had an Incremental Cost-effectiveness Ratio (ICER) of 57,390 € per averted hip fracture and consisted of using the FRAX ® score without BMD and treating women with a score higher than 5%. The ICER exceeded the acceptability threshold of 25,000 € in all the scenarios. Sensitivity analysis based on time to fracture, treatment efficacy, adherence to treatment and cost of dependence resulted in ICERs ranging from 39,216 € to 254,400 €. An ICER of 24,970 € was obtained when alendronate cost was reduced to 1.13 € per month. The use of FRAX ® as screening tool followed by alendronate treatment is not cost-effective in senior women in Spain. Other primary preventions strategies are advisable.

In our increasingly cost-conscious health system, patients, clinicians, hospitals, and payers all agree about the urgent need to rein in runaway healthcare costs. High pharmaceutical costs make drugs unaffordable to many patients who may benefit from them, including some insured patients who face prohibitive out-of-pocket costs. Health systems and payers can use the systematic framework of cost-effectiveness analysis and estimated budgetary impact to prioritize the adoption of new therapies and technologies. In this review article, we discuss basic principles of cost-effectiveness research for practicing clinicians, the concept of cost-effectiveness versus affordability, other considerations relevant to resource allocation, and limitations of cost-effectiveness research. We use the example of lipid lowering therapies to discuss application of cost-effectiveness research in informing health care policy, its use for health care systems and in the development of clinical practice guidelines, and its implications for clinicians and patients. As clinicians and patients become more cognizant of the cost-implications of new therapies, professional societies can help improve the quality of decision-making by incorporating unbiased value statements into their expert guidelines., (Published by Elsevier Inc.)

Aims: The Heart Outcomes Prevention Evaluation-3 (HOPE-3) found that rosuvastatin alone or with candesartan and hydrochlorothiazide (HCT) (in a subgroup with hypertension) significantly lowered cardiovascular events compared with placebo in 12 705 individuals from 21 countries at intermediate risk and without cardiovascular disease. We assessed the costs implications of implementation in primary prevention in countries at different economic levels., Methods and Results: Hospitalizations, procedures, study and non-study medications were documented. We applied country-specific costs to the healthcare resources consumed for each patient. We calculated the average cost per patient in US dollars for the duration of the study (5.6 years). Sensitivity analyses were also performed with cheapest equivalent substitutes. The combination of rosuvastatin with candesartan/HCT reduced total costs and was a cost-saving strategy in United States, Canada, Europe, and Australia. In contrast, the treatments were more expensive in developing countries even when cheapest equivalent substitutes were used. After adjustment for gross domestic product (GDP), the costs of cheapest equivalent substitutes in proportion to the health care costs were higher in developing countries in comparison to developed countries., Conclusion: Rosuvastatin and candesartan/HCT in primary prevention is a cost-saving approach in developed countries, but not in developing countries as both drugs and their cheapest equivalent substitutes are relatively more expensive despite adjustment by GDP. Reductions in costs of these drugs in developing countries are essential to make statins and blood pressure lowering drugs affordable and ensure their use., Clinical Trial Registration: HOPE-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00468923., (Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2019. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objective: The 2016 Chinese guidelines for the management of dyslipidemia recommended mixed rules that centered around a 10% 10-year risk threshold to initiate statins for the primary prevention of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). The present study aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the guideline statin-initiation strategy and alternative strategies., Methods: A decision analytic model using discrete event simulation with event probabilities based on a validated ASCVD risk prediction tool for Chinese was constructed. Risk factor inputs were from the dataset of a nationally representative survey of middle-aged and elderly Chinese. Data of statin treatment effectiveness were from a published meta-analysis. Other key input data were identified from the literature or relevant databases. The strategies we evaluated were the guideline strategy, a 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy and a 20% 10-year risk threshold strategy. After excluding any extended dominance strategies, the incremental costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained of each strategy was calculated., Results: The 20% 10-year risk threshold strategy was an extended dominance option. The incremental costs per QALY gained from the 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy compared with no treatment and the guideline strategy compared with the 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy were CN¥69,309 and CN¥154,944, respectively. The results were robust in most sensitivity analyses., Conclusions: The guideline strategy and the 15% 10-year risk threshold strategy are optimal when using the three times and the two times the gross domestic product per capita willingness-to-pay standards, respectively.

Objective: To improve the understanding of local health departments' (LHDs') capacity for and perceived barriers to using quantitative/economic modeling information to inform policy and program decisions., Design: We developed, tested, and deployed a novel survey to examine this topic., Setting: The study's sample frame included the 200 largest LHDs in terms of size of population served plus all other accredited LHDs (n = 67). The survey was e-mailed to 267 LHDs; respondents completed the survey online using SurveyMonkey., Participants: Survey instructions requested that the survey be completed from the perspective of the entire health department by LHD's top executive or designate. A total of 63 unique LHDs responded (response rate: 39%)., Main Outcome Measure(s): Capacity for quantitative and economic modeling was measured in 5 categories (routinely use information from models we create ourselves; routinely use information from models created by others; sometimes use information from models we create ourselves; sometimes use information from models created by others; never use information from modeling). Experience with modeling was measured in 4 categories (very, somewhat, not so, not at all)., Results: Few (9.5%) respondents reported routinely using information from models, and most who did used information from models created by others. By contrast, respondents reported high levels of interest in using models and in gaining training in their use and the communication of model results. The most commonly reported barriers to modeling were funding and technical skills. Nearly all types of training topics listed were of interest., Conclusions: Across a sample of large and/or accredited LHDs, we found modest levels of use of modeling coupled with strong interest in capacity for modeling and therefore highlight an opportunity for LHD growth and support. Both funding constraints and a lack of knowledge of how to develop and/or use modeling are barriers to desired progress around modeling. Educational or funding opportunities to promote capacity for and use of quantitative and economic modeling may catalyze use of modeling by public health practitioners.

Importance: It is unclear whether effective population-wide interventions that reduce risk factors and improve health result in sustained benefits to a community's health. If benefits do persist after a program is ended, interventions could be brief rather than maintained long term., Objective: To measure mortality and smoking rates in a rural community over decades before, during, and after prevention program reductions., Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study compared smoking and mortality rates in a rural Maine county with other Maine counties over time by 5-year intervals. Multiple changes occurred between 2001 and 2015 in the physiological and behavioral risk factor reduction programs offered in the county. They included reductions in leadership, staff, institutional resources, data monitoring, and the programs themselves. Data were analyzed from May 2018 to March 2019., Intervention: Previous multifaceted interventions and outcome monitoring were withdrawn or diminished in the past decade., Main Outcomes and Measures: Smoking and age-adjusted mortality rates vs household income., Results: Reduced mortality rates in Franklin County in 1986 to 2005 reverted to those predicted by household incomes, relative to other Maine counties, by 2006 to 2015 (1986-1990 T score = -2.86 [P = .01] and 2001-2005 T score = -3.00 [P = .01] to 2006 to 2010 T score = -0.43 [P = .67] and 2011-2015 T score = -0.72 [P = .48]). Analysis of County Health Rankings data from 2010 to 2018 also showed that Franklin County's outcomes have reverted to no better than predicted by socioeconomic status. The county's T scores increased from -3.62 (P = .003) in 2010 to -0.41 (P = .69) in 2015 to 0.13 (P = .90) in 2018. Statewide association of income with mortality by analyses of variance showed that the R2 values have increased from the decades preceding 2000 (1976-1980, R2 = 0.21; P = .08; 1986-1990, R2 = 0.32; P = .02) to 2006 to 2010 (R2 = 0.73; P < .001) and 2011 to 2015 (R2 = 0.70; P < .001)., Conclusions and Relevance: This study suggests that gains associated with population health interventions may be lost when the interventions are reduced. Adjusting outcome measures for socioeconomic status may allow quicker and more sensitive monitoring of intervention adequacy and success. The increasing trend of age-adjusted mortality in Maine and nationally to correlate inversely with incomes may warrant further community interventions, especially for poorer populations.

Objectives: The objective of this study is to examine, from a limited societal perspective, the cost-effectiveness of community-based obesity prevention interventions (CBIs)-defined as a programme of community-level strategies to promote healthy eating and physical activity for Australian children (aged 5-18 years)., Methods: The effectiveness of CBIs was determined by undertaking a literature review and meta-analysis. Commonly implemented strategies to increase physical activity and improve nutrition were costed (in 2010 Australian dollars) to determine the average cost of a generic programme. A multiple cohort Markov model that simulates diseases associated with overweight and obesity was used to estimate the health benefits, measured as health-adjusted life years (HALYs) and healthcare-related cost offsets from diseases averted due to exposure to the intervention. Health and cost outcomes were estimated over the lifetime of the target population. Monte-Carlo simulation was used to assess second-order uncertainty of input parameters to estimate mean incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER) with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). Scenario analyses tested variations in programme intensity, target population, and duration of effect., Results: The meta-analysis revealed a small but significant difference in BMI z-score (mean difference of - 0.07 (95% UI: - 0.13 to - 0.01)) favouring the CBI community compared with the control. The estimated net cost of implementing CBIs across all local government areas (LGAs) in Australia was AUD426M (95% UI: AUD3M to AUD823M) over 3 years. This resulted in 51,792 HALYs gained (95% UI: 6816 to 96,972) over the lifetime of the cohort. The mean ICER was AUD8155 per HALY gained (95% UI: AUD237 to AUD81,021), with a 95% probability of being cost-effective at a willingness to pay threshold of AUD50,000 per HALY., Conclusions: CBIs are cost-effective obesity prevention initiatives; however, implementation across Australia will be (relatively) expensive when compared with current investments in preventive health.

Background: Studies show that the risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) continues post-discharge in nonsurgical patients with acute medical illness. Betrixaban is the first anticoagulant approved in the United States (US) for VTE prophylaxis extending beyond hospitalization., Objective: The aim was to establish whether betrixaban for VTE prophylaxis in nonsurgical patients with acute medical illness at risk of VTE in the US is cost-effective compared with enoxaparin., Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted, estimating the cost per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained with betrixaban (35-42 days) compared with enoxaparin (6-14 days) from a US payer perspective over a lifetime horizon. A decision tree (DT) estimated primary VTE events, thrombotic events, and treatment complications in the first 3 months based on data from the phase III Acute Medically Ill VTE Prevention with Extended Duration Betrixaban study. A Markov model estimated recurrent events and long-term complication risks from published literature. EuroQoL-5 Dimensions utility data and costs inflated to 2017 US dollars (US$) were from published literature. Results were discounted at 3.0% per annum. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses explored uncertainty., Results: Betrixaban dominated enoxaparin, with savings of US$784 and increased QALYs of 0.017 per patient. In addition, betrixaban dominated enoxaparin across all sensitivity analyses, but was most sensitive to utilities and DT probabilities. Furthermore, probabilistic sensitivity analysis found that betrixaban was more cost-effective than enoxaparin at all willingness-to-pay thresholds., Conclusion: Betrixaban can be considered cost-effective for nonsurgical patients with acute medical illness at risk of VTE, requiring longer VTE prophylaxis from hospitalization through post-discharge.

Despite the large interest in economic interventions to reduce HIV risk, little research has been done to show whether there are economic gains of these interventions for younger women and what intermediary role economic resources play in changing participants' sexual behavior. This paper contributes to this gap by examining the impacts of a conditional cash transfer (CCT) for young women in South Africa on young women's economic resources and the extent to which they play a role in young women's health and behavior. We used data from HIV Prevention Trials Network 068 study, which provided transfers to young women (in addition to their parents) conditional on the young woman attending at least 80% of school days in the previous month. We found that the CCT increased young women's economic wellbeing in terms of having savings, spending money, being unindebted, and food secure. We also investigated heterogeneous effects of the program by household economic status at baseline because the program was not specifically poverty targeted and found that the results were driven by young women from the poorest families. From these results, we examined heterogeneity by baseline poverty for other outcomes related to HIV risk including sexual behavior and psychosocial well-being. We found psychosocial well-being benefits in young women from the poorest families and that economic wellbeing gains explained much these impacts.

It is a desirable medical as well as health economic objective to achieve the best possible health effects with given financial resources. Estimating the costs of intervention programs is complex and not always possible in advance. One possibility to obtain information on costs or cost effectiveness of certain interventions is to assess programs already in existence. The aim of this article was to develop a simple, easy to understand and practical possibility of documenting costs of prevention and health promotion programs. Based on the fundamentals necessary for cost assessment, a questionnaire and a module to document the consumed resources and the resultant costs were developed. These were applied and improved within a pre-test. The developed cost module is as follows: In the left column, 5 key cost categories are listed: personnel, rooms, equipment and process, management, other costs. The cost module is a compromise between different objectives that are difficult to reconcile. On the one hand, the costs should be documented as detailed as possible and on the other, the module must be very simple to implement, as otherwise it will not be used in practice. For this purpose, it might also be useful to develop a module for each stakeholder that is aligned as closely as possible to his or her special activities. All feedback and suggestions from the pre-test were incorporated. However, some of the feedback points were project specific. Here an attempt was made to find a compromise between detail and practicality. This was done by implementing more detailed descriptions and examples in the manual. The presented module is very general. This also is a great advantage because it can be used to document the costs of completely different stakeholders. Thus, the concept presented here for cost assessment provides a first and essential component for a detailed documentation of program costs and provides the potential to check comparability and transferability of those prevention programs., Competing Interests: Die Autoren geben an, dass kein Interessenkonflikt besteht., (© Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.)

Background: The health economic evidence about the value and optimal targeting of genetic testing in the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) events has remained limited and ambiguous. The objective of this study is to optimize the population-level use and targeting of genetic testing alongside traditional risk factors in the prevention of CHD events and, thereby, to assess the cost-benefit of genetic testing., Methods and Findings: We compare several strategies for using traditional and genetic testing in the prevention of CHD through statin therapy. The targeting of tests to different patient segments within these strategies is optimized by using a decision-analytic model, in which a patient's estimated risk of CHD is updated based on test results using Bayesian methods. We adopt the perspective of healthcare sector. The data for the model is exceptionally wide and combined from national healthcare registers, the Finnish Institute for Molecular Medicine, and published literature. Our results suggest that targeting genetic testing in an optimal way to those patients about which traditional risk factors do not provide sufficiently accurate information results in the highest expected net benefit. In particular, compared to the use of traditional risk factors only, the optimal use of genetic testing would decrease the expected costs of an average patient aged 45 years or more by 2.54€ in a 10-year follow-up period while maintaining the level of the expected health outcome. Thus, genetic testing is found to be a part of a cost-beneficial testing strategy alongside traditional risk factors. This conclusion is robust to reasonable changes in model inputs., Conclusions: If targeted optimally, the use of genetic testing alongside traditional risk factors is cost-beneficial in the prevention of CHD., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: The recent introduction of an entirely subcutaneous implantable cardioverter-defibril-lator (S-ICD) represents an important progress in the defibrillation technology towards a less invasive approach. This is a single-center observational study of S-ICD implantations in Poland., Methods: The S-ICD was implanted in 11 patients with standard indications for an ICD. Patients in whom the device was implanted were evaluated for adverse events and device function at hospital discharge. All hospitalization costs were calculated and summed up for all patients. Costs were divided into following categories: medical materials, pharmaceuticals, operating theatre staff, cardiology depart-ment staff, laboratory tests, non-laboratory tests and additional non-medical costs., Results: The mean age of patients was 51.6 ± 16.4 years, 9 were men and 2 were women. Four pa-tients had atrial fibrillation as the basal rhythm, 1 patient had atrial flutter and 6 patients had sinus rhythm. All patients had at least one condition that precluded the use of a traditional ICD system or the S-ICD was preferred due to other conditions, i.e. a history complicated transvenous ICD therapy (18%), anticipated higher risk of infection (27%), lack or difficult vascular access (18%), young age and anticipated high cumulated risk of lifetime device therapy (36%). The mean duration of the im-plantation procedure was 2 h. One patient developed a postoperative pocket hematoma. Mean total time of hospitalization was 28 (6-92) days. Average cost of hospitalization per patient was 21,014.29 EUR (minimal = 19,332.71 EUR and maximal = 24,824.14 EUR)., Conclusions: S-ICD implantation appears to provide a viable alternative to transvenous ICD, espe-cially for patients without pacing requirements.

Objective: We aimed to review health-economic evaluations of (hypothetical) intervention programmes for the primary prevention of dementia, and highlight challenges and provide recommendations for future research to estimate its cost-effectiveness., Methods: We searched the databases PubMed, MODEM, CEA and NHS for publications on the cost-consequence, -effectiveness, -utility or -benefit analysis of (hypothetical) interventions to reduce the risk of developing dementia for persons without dementia, and described the study characteristics., Results: Three publications described the evaluation of a hypothetical risk reduction due to physical activity or a multidomain intervention programme. Two studies reported a reduction of care costs. One study yielded two scenarios of increased care costs and one scenario of reduced care costs. Only one study reported the impact in QALY terms, and found a QALY gain., Conclusion: A few studies have evaluated a hypothetical multidomain prevention intervention, and reported that primary dementia prevention is potentially cost-saving or cost-effective. Various challenges remain to evaluate the health-economic impact of prevention interventions, including extrapolation of short-term trial effects, care costs in the dementia-free and life years gained, and accurate representation of usual care. We recommend extensive sensitivity analyses to examine the impact of assumptions regarding these aspects on the outcomes of cost-effectiveness studies.

This article is about numerical control of HIV propagation. The contribution of the article is threefold: first, a novel model of HIV propagation is proposed; second, the methods from numerical optimal control are successfully applied to the developed model to compute optimal control profiles; finally, the computed results are applied to the real problem yielding important and practically relevant results.