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Biogas is a locally accessible and renewable energy source that can be generated from organic feedstocks under anaerobic conditions. This paper aims to assess the future biogas potential in India from varied sources (crops residues, animal manure, municipal solid wastes, municipal and industrial wastewater). The study uses a bottom-up, resource focused approach for the assessment of biogas potential. The paper assess agriculture and animal residues as well as generation, collection and availability of municipal and industrial waste for biogas production. The results show considerable potential of biogas in the next two decades due to rising waste generation and deployment of infrastructure for improving waste collection efficiency. The analysis estimates that the biogas potential ranges from 310 to 655 billion m3/year in the year 2040 depending upon availability of different resources. The estimated biogas potential in the year 2040 is around 36% of India's current (2015) total primary energy supply in the high availability scenario. Finally, the paper offers policy recommendations aimed at realizing the biogas potential.

In recent years, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been collaborating with Indian institutions to organise outreach events. This essay draws on the perspective of participants, speakers and organisers of 17 in-person outreach events conducted across India in 2018 and 2020, to share insights and recommendations for future IPCC events in India and other developing country contexts. The formats analysed in this essay range from panel events with very large public audiences to more focused workshops, meetings and seminars. Target audiences covered both academic and non-academic audiences and included researchers, teachers, students, industry and NGOs. The events, while achieving their main objective of communicating the findings of IPCC reports, also provided a platform for open discussion of localised climate impacts and good practices in adaptation and mitigation. There are, however, notable challenges to public outreach in India, specifically in terms of attracting an adequate number of participants, experts’ availability, communicating to a diverse audience and translation into local languages. The biggest challenge faced by speakers was a lack of knowledge about the number of attendees and the composition of the audience prior to an event. It is our recommendation that future outreach events in India are designed to be interactive, tailored to the regional context and complemented by simplified communication materials. Speakers should be provided with audience information and background prior to the event, and greater reach into rural areas, including school children, could be achieved with material in local languages. Additionally, event organisers often require logistical and operational support to host outreach events.

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) connect trends in future socioeconomic and technological development with impacts on the environment, such as global climate change. They occupy a critical position at the global science-policy interface. IAMs and associated scenarios have come under intense scrutiny, with critiques addressing both methodological and substantive issues, such as land use, carbon dioxide removal and technology performance. Criticisms have also addressed the transparency of IAM methods and assumptions as well as the transparency of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment of IAMs. This paper, authored by the co-chairs of IPCC Working Group III and members of the Technical Support Unit, documents activities aiming to enhance the transparency of IAMs and their assessment. It includes a history of IPCC's approach to scenarios covering the formation of the Integrated Assessment Modeling Consortium (IAMC) in 2007 and the emergence of the approach by which IPCC facilitates the development of scenarios, but does not produce them itself. An IPCC Expert Meeting at the start of the current assessment cycle made transparency recommendations targeted at both the research community and IPCC. The community has taken steps to “open the black box” by moving toward open-source and web-publishing IAM documentation. IPCC has included an Annex to its next report focusing on scenarios and modeling methodologies. An open call for scenario data linked to the current IPCC report includes an expanded set of input and output variables. This paper ends with suggested criteria for measuring the success of these efforts to improve transparency.

The anticipated economic and population growth in India will increase demand for material resources, energy and consequently carbon emissions. The global ambition to limit global warming to 1.5 °C by the end of the century calls for rapid and unprecedented action. As the most carbon-intensive sectors, India's steel and cement industry will require a more transformative shift, both on the demand and supply side. Strategies from both supply and demand-side are analysed for steel and cement sector to understand consequences for energy and emissions using two modelling approaches i) energy system and ii) material flow models. A portfolio of technically feasible options to reduce the material, energy and CO2 intensity is explored under four alternate scenarios spanning till 2050 differentiated by their mitigation ambition and development paradigm. Results show that current policies in India will provide adequate incentives for achieving the climate targets India has submitted within its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) however, dematerialisation, reuse and recycling will be necessary for achieving the global ambition of 1.5 °C. The study concludes that a stringent carbon policy in combination with strong sustainability principles can reduce CO2 emissions by 68% in the steel and cement sector in 1.5 °C Scenario compared to NDC Scenario.

India's contributions to meeting global mean temperature increases of 2 °C or well below 2 °C would require transformational changes in its energy systems. A bottom-up model analyzes alternate futu...

The total electricity consumption from commercial sector was about 9% during 2013–14 in India. Load research survey was carried out to study the usage patterns for all types of electric appliances used in commercial establishments at income, appliance and end-use levels in Gujarat state of India – one of the most progressive states. Penetration level of efficient appliances, electricity load curves and Energy Performance Index (EPI) were estimated. The mean EPI was 98 kWh/m2/year (SD = 105.5) for surveyed small commercial establishments (low income) while mean EPI was 181 kWh/m2/year (SD = 68) for surveyed large commercial establishments (Malls). Electricity saving potentials was estimated if electric appliances at these commercial establishments were replaced with efficient appliances. Four alternate scenarios were analyzed using cost of conserved energy (CCE) curves with various efficiency enhancement options – following at least commercial sub-category level median EPIs, following average EU equivalent EPI levels, following average EPI levels of equivalent US commercial establishments, and following the best available technologies (BAT). The average energy savings ranged between 14% and 25% across buildings and scenarios. Energy efficient air-conditioner and LED lights offer the highest energy savings potential among appliances.

Various modeling studies analyzing global 2 °C climate stabilization scenarios have projected penetration of CO2 capture and storage (CCS) technologies in India alongside a sizable penetration of renewable energy technologies. The assessments of geological storage potential over India have shown wide variation across regions. This paper examines the locations of large point sources of CO2 emissions in India and matches it with carbon storage locations to minimize the cost of CCS evolving grid. The concept of weighted Euclidean distance and Integrated Environmental Control Model are used to propose suitable pipeline networks for emissions-intensive clusters to optimize the cost of CO2 avoidance. The computational method estimates proximate storage location for each CO2 emitting source taking into account the total storage potential at each location. CCS requirement in India would vary depending on the global climate stabilization target. We examine two targets for India that correspond to 2 °C and well below 2 °C global mitigation regimes. According to our estimates, India could mitigate around 780 Mt CO2 per year below 60 $/t-CO2 (2005 prices) over 30 years, and another 250 Mt CO2 per year for up to 75 $/t-CO2 prices through CCS under these scenarios respectively.

The paper estimates the Indian carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions over the last two decades at sectoral and sub-regional levels to identify hotspots of CO2 emissions, providing possible insights for focused carbon mitigation efforts pan-India. The CO2 emissions are also estimated at the level of 1151 large point sources to identify hotspots for mitigation and also to demonstrate future possibilities for CO2 storage in nearby geological sinks. India's CO2 emission grew at around 5% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) between the years 1990 and 2013. From the 1897 Mt of CO2 emission electricity generation, transport and iron & steel industry contributed 48%, 11.6% and 7.9% respectively. Districts of Kachchh, Sonbhadra and Korba were the largest CO2 emitters, mainly due to the location of coal-based mega power projects. The district-level emissions estimates show a flattening of the distribution curve of CO2 emissions over the years, indicating that more districts are now crowding up the higher emission s...

This chapter discusses primarily the distribution of emissions entitlements across nations, an intragenerational distributive justice problem, and the efficiency of the distribution, from the perspective of developing countries. The justice has to therefore address both the intragenerational and intergenerational equity concerns. The asymmetry between emissions and impacts highlights the equity concerns in the climate change problem, since a greater burden of impacts is distributed to poorer nations by natural processes, while most anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions arise from economic activities in affluent nations. The climate-change mitigation strategies thus transgress into a larger economic development agenda, especially in developing countries, requiring simultaneous examination of justice, equity and efficiency concerns. Consequential equity relates to assessing and remedying the consequences arising from climate change and the mitigation actions. The specific procedural equity problems for developing countries in the global climate-change regime arise from their poor information base, weak bargaining strength and inferior capacity to deal with climate change.

International audience; The Paris Agreement introduces long-term strategies as an instrument to inform progressively more ambitious emission reduction objectives, while holding development goals paramount in the context of national circumstances. In the lead up to the twenty-first Conference of the Parties, the Deep Decarbonization Pathways Project developed mid-century low-emission pathways for 16 countries, based on an innovative pathway design framework. In this Perspective, we describe this framework and show how it can support the development of sectorally and technologically detailed, policy-relevant and country-driven strategies consistent with the Paris Agreement climate goal. We also discuss how this framework can be used to engage stakeholder input and buy-in; design implementation policy packages; reveal necessary technological, financial and institutional enabling conditions; and support global stocktaking and increasing of ambition.

Rising population, income and urbanization are increasing urban passenger transport demand in India. Energy and emissions intensities associated with conventional transport are no longer sustainable vis-a-vis energy security, air quality and climate change. Cities are seeking transport roadmaps that jointly mitigate these risks. Roadmaps vary across cities, but approach to delineate actions is common: (i) ‘representative vision’ that articulates long-term goals, (ii) methods for comparative scenarios assessment, and (iii) quantification of co-benefits to prioritize actions. This paper illustrates application of quantitative modeling to assess development and environmental co-benefits for Ahmedabad city. The paper constructs two transport scenarios spanning till 2035. The bifurcating themes are: (i) Business-as-Usual (BAU) and Low Carbon Scenario (LCS). The quantitative assessment using Extended Snapshot (ExSS) Model shows that transport activity shall result in four-fold increase in energy demand under BAU from 2010 to 2035. Three key contributors to CO 2 mitigation under LCS in merit order are: (i) fuel switch, including decarbonized electricity, (ii) modal shift, and (iii) substitution of travel demand. Scenarios analysis shows that LCS improves energy security by reducing oil demand and also delivers air quality co-benefits – reducing 74% NOx and 83% PM 2.5 from the passenger transport sector compared to BAU in 2035. Finally, the paper argues that cities in developing countries can leverage carbon finance to develop sustainable and low carbon mobility plans that prevent adverse infrastructure and behavioral lock-ins and prompt low carbon development.

This paper assesses comparable urban transport scenarios for China and India. The assessment methodology uses AIM/End-use model with a detailed characterization of technologies to analyze two scenarios for India and China till the year 2050. The first scenario assumes continuation and enhancement, in both countries, of policies under a typical business-as-usual dynamics, like constructing metros, implementing national fuel economy standards, promoting alternate fuel vehicles and implementing national air quality standards. The alternative, low carbon scenario assumes application, in both countries, of globally envisaged measures like fuel economy standards as well as imposition of carbon price derived from a global integrated assessment modeling exercise aiming to achieve global 2 °C temperature stabilization target. The modeling results for both countries show that decarbonizing transport sector shall need a wide array of measures including fuel economy, low carbon fuel mix including low carbon electricity supply. The comparison of China and India results provides important insights and lessons from their similarities and differences in the choice of urban transport options. India can benefit from China’s experiences as it lags China in urbanization and income. Modeling assessments show that both nations can contribute to, as well as benefit by aligning their transport plans with global climate stabilization regime.

International audience; The economics of climate policy after Rio led to a climate centric paradigm which departs from the original UNFCCC’s cooperative framework for designing climate policies from the perspective of sustainable development. This resulted in a cap-and-trade approach which aims to mitigate the adverse effects on development through appropriate transfers to achieve fair burden sharing. However, the continuation of this paradigm cannot untie the development-climate Gordian knot. (The Gordian Knot refers to a seemingly intractable problem. According to a Greek legend, Gordios arrived in Phrygia in an ox cart, was made King and dedicated his cart to Zeus, tying it up with an intricate knot. The person who would untie the knot would rule Asia. Alexander the Great found a solution by cutting it with his sword. Hourcade et al. (The design of climate policy. MIT Press, Cambridge, p 408, 2008) explain that, after Rio Earth Summit (1992), the climate negotiations remained disengaged from the debates on development pathways, thus tying up a new Gordian knot of misunderstandings.) Instead one loses sight of the benefits of cooperation in a global agreement to abate GHGs emissions. The challenge is now to align the development and climate objectives taking into consideration the changing context since the 1990s which includes a re-equilibrium of the world economic balance and the adverse context created by the 2008 financial crisis. This paper proposes that carbon finance should be considered as part of a general reform of the financial system. The adoption of a carbon value as a notional price could trigger a wave of low-carbon investments in the world thereby redirecting some global savings towards low-carbon investments, thus providing a lever for equitable access to development.

The goal of limiting global temperature rise to “well below” 2 °C has been reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement on climate change at the 21st Conference of the Parties (COP21). Almost all countries submitted their decarbonization targets in their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and India did as well. India’s nationally determined contribution (NDC) aims to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions intensity of national GDP in 2030 by 33–35% compared to 2005. This paper analyzes how India’s NDC commitments compare with emission trajectories consistent with well below 2 °C and 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization goals. A top-down computable general equilibrium model is used for the analysis. Our analysis shows that there are significant emission gaps between NDC and global climate stabilization targets in 2030. The energy system requires significant changes, mostly relying on renewable energy and carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. The mitigation costs would increase if India delays its abatement efforts and is locked into NDC pathways till 2030. India’s GHG emissions would peak 10 years earlier under 1.5 °C global temperature stabilization compared to the 2 °C goal. The results imply that India would need financial and technological support from developed countries to achieve emissions reductions aligned with the global long-term goal.

Biogas has emerged as a promising renewable technology to convert agricultural, animal, industrial and municipal wastes into energy. Biogas development can be integrated with strategies to improve sanitation as well as reduce indoor air pollution and greenhouse gases. Currently, the total biogas production in India is 2.07 billion m(3)/year. This is quite low compared to its potential, which is estimated to be in the range of 29-48 billion m(3)/year. Hence, this study aims to identify both technical and non-technological barriers impending biogas dissemination in India. Biogas dissemination is affected by various waste, renewable energy, and urban policies. Barriers were therefore identified individually for rural and urban biogas systems existing in India using decomposition analysis. The results show that type and importance of barriers vary strongly between biogas systems due to the difference in technology maturity, feedstock availability and quality, supply chain, awareness level and policy support.

Transformation of Asia's transport sector has vital implications for climate change, sustainable development and energy indicators. Papers in this special issue show how transport transitions in Asia may play out in different socio-economic and policy scenarios, including a low carbon scenario equivalent to 2 °C stabilization. Accounting for heterogeneity of national transport systems, these papers use diverse methods, frameworks and models to assess the response of the transport system to environmental policy, such as a carbon tax, as well as to a cluster of policies aimed at diverse development indicators. The analysis shows that CO2 mitigation in a transport system is achieved more effectively by aligning mitigation policies with sustainable development policies and measures such as mandates for mode share and choices such as urban design, information and communication systems, and behavioral measures. Authors therefore advocate policies that target multiple dividends vis-a-vis carbon mitigation, energy security and local air quality. Whereas four papers focus on emissions mitigation policies, one paper examines challenges to adapt fast growing transport infrastructures to future climate change induced risks. Collectively, the papers exemplify a set of policies and measures that can deliver co-benefits, and, also, demonstrate the use of methods, frameworks and models to delineate the optimal mix of such policies and measures.

India has committed large investments to energy infrastructure assets-power plants, refineries, energy ports, pipelines, roads, railways, etc. The coastal infrastructure being developed to meet the rising energy imports is vulnerable to climate extremes. This paper provides an overview of climate risks to energy infrastructures in India and details two case studies – a crude oil importing port and a western coast railway transporting coal. The climate vulnerability of the port has been mapped using an index while that of the railway has been done through a damage function for RCP 4.5.0 and 8.5 scenarios. Our analysis shows that risk management through adaptation is likely to be very expensive. The system risks can be even greater and might adversely affect energy security and access objectives. Aligning sustainable development and climate adaptation measures can deliver substantial co-benefits. The key policy recommendations include: i) mandatory vulnerability assessment to future climate risks for energy infrastructures; ii) project and systemic risks in the vulnerability index; iii) adaptation funds for unmitigated climate risks; iv) continuous monitoring of climatic parameters and implementation of adaptation measures, and iv) sustainability actions along energy infrastructures that enhance climate resilience and simultaneously deliver co-benefits to local agents.

India has pledged to reduce the carbon intensity of GDP by 33–35% in the year 2030 compared to 2005 level in its Intended Nationally-Determined Contributions (INDC). The goal of limiting the global average temperature rise well below 2 °C was reaffirmed in the Paris Agreement adopted under UNFCCC. This chapter assesses three scenarios for India spanning till 2030. First, the reference scenario assumes continuation of the ongoing policies along the conventional path. Second, INDC scenario assumes the successful implementation of INDC decarbonization target. Two-degree (2 °C) scenario assumes an emission constraint aligned with the global of 2 °C stabilization target. The modelling assessment is carried out using a top-down computable general equilibrium AIM/CGE (Asia-Pacific Integrated Model/Computable General Equilibrium) model. The results show that even after full implementation of the INDCs, the emissions would still be 25 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent higher than 2 °C stabilization target over the period 2016–2030. Enhanced actions like penetration of renewable technologies, end-use demand management and improvement in energy efficiency could help to close this emission gap.

Electric vehicles have attracted the attention of India's policy makers as clean technology alternatives due to their multiple advantages like higher efficiency and lower air pollution in short to medium term and reduced CO2 emissions as electricity gets decarbonized in the long-run under low carbon scenarios. This paper uses an energy system model ANSWER-MARKAL to analyse the role of electric vehicles (EV) in India. The modelling assessment spans the period 2010 to 2050 and analyses future EV demand in India under three scenarios: i) a ‘Reference’ scenario which includes the continuation of existing EV policies as outlined in India's Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC); ii) a ‘EV policy’ scenario which, in line with India's INDCs, follows targeted supply-side push policies for EVs, but without the budget constraints; and iii) a ‘low carbon’ scenario which uses an exogenous price for CO2 in line with the global target of 2 °C temperature stabilization. The scenarios analysis delineates penetration of EVs and their co-benefits as well as co-costs. The co-benefits relate to local air quality, national energy security and CO2 emissions in India whereas the co-costs (risks) are related to sourcing of raw materials for batteries and battery reprocessing and disposal. The findings show that: i) in the reference scenario, the EVs 2-wheelers will achieve a significant share by 2050. Electric 4-wheelers though would have a small share even in 2050; ii) EV push policies though lead to significant diffusion of electric 2- wheelers in India by 2030. These policies enhance diffusion of electric 4-wheelers only if financial incentives are sustained in the long-term, iii) the application of global carbon price on the Indian economy in the 2° C stabilization scenario increases competitiveness of EVs and results in near total share of electric 2-wheelers by 2030 and a sizable share of electric 4-wheelers by 2050. The high and rising carbon price in low carbon scenario cause deep decarbonisation of electricity and enables EVs to deliver deep cut in CO2 emissions. The results show asymmetry in the impacts of national and global policies on co-benefits from EV. The EV supply-push policies deliver moderate benefits vis-a-vis air pollution and energy security indicators but make insignificant contribution CO2 emissions reduction. On the other hand, the global carbon price in the global 2° C stabilization scenario delivers sizable co-benefits vis-a-vis all three indicators. This asymmetry reveal important policy insights: i) the policy sequencing is vital to gain co-benefits, ii) EV technology push policies are good for creating early domestic market for a clean vehicle technology but they may not deliver sizable co-benefits vis-a-vis CO2 emissions which are global externalities, and iii) implementing strong climate policies early would lead to EVs delivering high co-benefits, in case of India, vis-a-vis all three indicators.

The debate around nuclear energy is polarized with stakeholders taking moral positions on the merits of this technology. Keeping moral positions aside, we focus on the critical issue of the cost of nuclear energy and its implications for future penetration of nuclear energy. Conventionally, the cost of nuclear technology is reported as the overnight construction cost (OCC). We argue that the holistic perspective costs should include other external costs (including risks, co-benefits and co-costs) as well as macroeconomic costs such as those incurred for climate change mitigation. We first present the historical evolution of OCC of nuclear power plants across the world as well as selected Asian nations. We then discuss what it means for the cost of climate change mitigation if nuclear technology is removed from the mitigation portfolio. Our analysis seeks to inform the nuclear debate in Asia from an analytical viewpoint which also includes the implicit risks and costs that underlie the moral positions on this technology.

Gujarat, a large industrialized state in India, consumed 67 TWh of electricity in 2009–10, besides experiencing a 4.5% demand–supply short-fall. Residential sector accounted for 15% of the total electricity consumption. We conducted load research survey across 21 cities and towns of the state to estimate residential electricity load curves, share of appliances by type and usage patterns for all types of household appliances at utility, geographic, appliance, income and end-use levels. The results indicate that a large scope exists for penetration of energy efficient devices in residential sector. Marginal Abatement Cost (MAC) curves for electricity and CO2 were generated to analyze relative attractiveness of energy efficient appliance options. Results indicate that up to 7.9 TWh of electricity can be saved per year with 6.7 Mt-CO2 emissions mitigation at negative or very low CO2 prices of US$ 10/t-CO2. Despite such options existing, their penetration is not realized due to myriad barriers such as financial, institutional or awareness and therefore cannot be taken as baseline options for CO2 emission mitigation regimes.

With increasing population, income, and urbanization, meeting the energy service demands for the building sector will be a huge challenge for Indian energy policy. Although there is broad consensus that the Indian building sector will grow and evolve over the coming century, there is little understanding of the potential nature of this evolution over the longer term. The present study uses a technologically detailed, service based building energy model nested in the long term, global, integrated assessment framework, GCAM, to produce scenarios of the evolution of the Indian buildings sector up through the end of the century. The results support the idea that as India evolves toward developed country per-capita income levels, its building sector will largely evolve to resemble those of the currently developed countries (heavy reliance on electricity both for increasing cooling loads and a range of emerging appliance and other plug loads), albeit with unique characteristics based on its climate conditions (cooling dominating heating and even more so with climate change), on fuel preferences that may linger from the present (for example, a preference for gas for cooking), and vestiges of its development path (including remnants of rural poor that use substantial quantities of traditional biomass).

Using the results of more than 20 different global models with a particular emphasis on two rapidly growing large countries (China and India), this paper discusses the cost estimation methods that are used in setting up information for organizing models and to illustrate their global applicability to China, Korea, Japan, India, Indonesia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, Africa, and the United States. Some clear points emerge from the intermodal comparison exercise. First, no single technology can play a leading role in global emission mitigation. Second, although participation of all the regions is important, regions where future demographic and economic growth is concentrated will share a large part of this burden. Third, different technologies are important for different regions for mitigating emissions in the most cost-effective way. Fourth, if stringent climate policy targets are to be met, then emission-reduction actions need to be undertaken as soon as possible.

Addressing the challenges of global warming requires interventions on both the energy supply and demand side. With the supply side responses being thoroughly discussed in the literature, our paper focuses on analyzing the role of end use efficiency improvements for Indian climate change mitigation policy and the associated co-benefits, within the integrated assessment modeling framework of Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). Six scenarios are analyzed here in total- one no climate policy and two climate policy cases, and within each of these one scenario with reference end use energy technology assumptions and another with advance end use energy technology assumptions has been analyzed. The paper has some important insights. Final energy demand and emissions in India are significantly reduced with energy efficiency improvements, and the role of this policy is important especially for the building and transportation sector under both reference and climate policy scenarios. Though energy efficiency policy should be an integral part of climate policy, by itself it is not sufficient for achieving mitigation targets, and a climate policy is necessary for achieving mitigation goals. There are significant co-benefits of energy efficiency improvements. Energy security for India is improved with reduced oil, coal and gas imports. Significant reduction in local pollutant gases is found which is important for local health concerns. Capital investment requirement for Indian electricity generation is reduced, more so for the climate policy scenarios, and finally there are significant savings in terms of reduced abatement cost for meeting climate change mitigation goals.

In 2010, Asia accounted for 60% of global population, 39% of Gross World Product, 44% of global energy consumption and nearly half of the world's energy system CO2 emissions. Thus, Asia is an important region to consider in any discussion of climate change or climate change mitigation. This paper explores the role of Asia in mitigating climate change, by comparing the results of 23 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. We focus our analysis on seven key areas: base year data, future energy use and emissions absent climate policy, the effect of urban and rural development on future energy us and emissions, the role of technology in emissions mitigation, regional emissions mitigation, and national climate policies.

Asian Modeling Exercise (AME) studies show feasible GHG emissions pathways consistent with the 2 degrees centigrade global stabilization target. The aim of the low carbon society subgroup is to propose frameworks, modeling methodologies, and workable roadmaps that will transform in-situ socioeconomic development to a sustainable low carbon society. This paper overviews LCS modeling studies and presents the LCS modeling frameworks and approaches used by the country modeling teams from Japan, China, India, Korea, and Nepal. The LCS modeling is soft-linked to global targets through regional emission constraints derived from the global stabilization targets. The disaggregated, yet soft-linked, assessments provide opportunities to articulate scenarios that include context-specific inputs, and thereby explicitly consider benefits and deliver more realistic and implementable roadmaps. We find that LCS modeling exercises are still at a relatively early stage in terms of modeling space, and need methodological enhancements. However, this approach offers considerable promise in a world where major emerging economies are undergoing rapid transformation, national and regional interests everywhere still precede global interests, and implementation of the carbon market remains fragmentary. Significant opportunities therefore exist for co-benefits to be gained, opportunities that could be the key drivers of short-term actions vital to the realization of the low carbon transition.

Low carbon energy technologies are of increasing importance to India for reducing emissions and diversifying its energy supply mix. Using GCAM, an integrated assessment model, this paper analyzes a targets approach for pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies in the Indian electricity generation sector from 2005 to 2095. Targets for these technologies have been constructed on the basis of Indian government documents, policy announcements, and expert opinions. Different targets have been set for the reference scenario and the carbon price scenario. In the reference scenario, wind and nuclear technologies exceed respective targets in the long run without any subsidy push, while solar energy requires subsidy push throughout the century in order to meet its high targets. In the short run, nuclear energy also requires significant subsidy, including a much higher initial subsidy relative to solar power, which is a result of its higher targets. Under a carbon price scenario, the carbon price drives the penetration of these technologies. Still, subsidy is required — especially in the short run when the carbon price is low. We also found that pushing solar, wind, and nuclear technologies leads to a decrease in share of CCS under the carbon price scenario and biomass under both the reference and carbon price scenarios. This is because low carbon technologies compete among themselves and substitute each other, thereby enhancing the need for subsidy or carbon price, highlighting that proposed targets are not set at efficient levels. In light of contemporary debate on external costs of nuclear energy, we also assess the sensitivity of the results to nuclear technology cost. We find that higher cost significantly decreases the share of nuclear power under both the reference and carbon price scenarios.

Electricity production causes unintended impacts. Their exclusion by the market leads to suboptimal resource allocations. Monetizing and internalizing of external costs, though challenging and debatable, leads to a better allocation of economic resources and welfare. In this paper, a life-cycle analysis (LCA) on the production of electricity from conventional coal based electricity generation system has been performed in order to examine the environmental impacts of coal based electricity generating systems in the twin-city of Ahmedabad and Gandhinagar in western India. By using dose–response functions, we make an attempt to estimate the damages to human health, crops, and building materials resulting from the operation of coal power plants and its associated mines. Further, we use geographic information system to account for spatially dependent data. Finally, monetary values have been assigned to estimate the damage to human health, crops and building materials. This study reveals that the health as well as on non-health impacts of air pollution resulting from coal based electricity generation may not be ignored both in absolute as well as economic value terms.

India is the world’s fourth largest emitter of greenhouse gases. Transport contributes 13 % of India’s GHG emissions (MoEF. India: green house gas emissions 2007, Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (INCCA), Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF). Government of India, New Delhi. Accessed 13 Sept 2013, 2010). Driven by rising population, income, and urbanization, under a business-as-usual scenario, India’s energy demand from transport is projected to increase sixfold in 2050 from current levels. This has vital impact on key national sustainable development indicators like energy security and air pollution. In response, several national and subnational policies and measures were initiated to ameliorate the adverse impacts of transport decisions on sustainability. These include national policies and programs for fuel efficiency, low-carbon technologies, investments in public transport infrastructure, and climate change mitigation. These aside, several bottom-up interventions that are initiated locally are showing promise.

This paper uses the 2006 IPCC Guidelines and latest country specific emission factors to estimate Indian methane emissions at sectoral and district level for the years 1990, 1995, 2005 and 2008. The estimates show that while methane emissions have increased steadily over past two decades, their share in India’s aggregate GHG emissions has declined from 31% in 1985 to 27% in 2008 mainly due to relatively higher growth CO 2 emissions from the fossil fuels. The estimates for the year 2008 show that: i) agriculture sector, which employed two-thirds of India’s population and contributed 17% of GDP, accounted for 23% of India’s GHG emissions ii) 83% of country’s methane emissions are contributed by enteric fermentation, manure use and rice production, and iii) methane emissions from urban solid waste are steadily rising over the past two decades; their share in aggregate methane emissions has reached 8%. Resting on the disaggregated emissions estimates, the paper argues for using geographical and sectoral flexibilities to develop a roadmap for mitigation of methane emissions for India.

Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 (RCP6) is a pathway that describes trends in long-term, global emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), short-lived species, and land-use/land-cover change leading to a stabilisation of radiative forcing at 6.0 Watts per square meter (Wm−2) in the year 2100 without exceeding that value in prior years. Simulated with the Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM), GHG emissions of RCP6 peak around 2060 and then decline through the rest of the century. The energy intensity improvement rates changes from 0.9% per year to 1.5% per year around 2060. Emissions are assumed to be reduced cost-effectively in any period through a global market for emissions permits. The exchange of CO2 between the atmosphere and terrestrial ecosystem through photosynthesis and respiration are estimated with the ecosystem model. The regional emissions, except CO2 and N2O, are downscaled to facilitate transfer to climate models.

The Climate negotiations in Copenhagen in December 2009 witnessed the emerging power of Brazil, South Africa, India, and China (BASIC). Although still focussed on domestic development goals, BASIC countries have made important steps toward a greater engagement in the global climate agenda. For India, the shift was marked by a voluntary, but conditional, target of reducing emission intensity, away from the past normative position based on “equal per capita,” emissions entitlements. The new track aims at finding cost-effective mitigation strategies that align national development goals and climate actions. This paper examines the mitigation potential of a domestic sustainable development policy using a suite of integrated assessment models. The long-term goal is to keep temperature increase below 2°C. This article shows that it is possible to match domestic development goals and climate mitigation. Win–win options exist and side benefits—in terms of energy security and local pollution—are important. However, development policies are not sufficient to achieve the desired emissions reductions. We find that it is necessary to introduce a constraint on the carbon budget. The price of carbon that emerges is however much lower than in a conventional mitigation scenario. Finally, this paper proposes to shift the negotiations away from the current climate-centric focus toward “development,” in order to reduce conflicts and deliver greater global and national benefits.

This paper estimates the national level trend of India’s N2O emissions from 1985–2005 and detailed sub-regional (594 districts) level and sector emissions for the year 2005. N2O emissions are estimated using the latest methodologies (IPCC 2006), disaggregated activity data and indigenized emission factors. The estimates show that India’s N2O emissions have grown from 144 Gg in 1985 to 267 Gg in 2005 exhibiting a compounded annual growth rate of 3.1%, which has been gradually declining from 4.7% over 1985–1990 to 2.4% over 2000–2005. N-fertilizer application contributed most to N2O emissions, a 49% share in 2005 compared to 40% in 1985. Sub-regional (district-level) distribution of N2O emissions showed rising mean and spread over the years, with average emissions per districts increasing from 305 ton N2O per year in 1990 to 450 tons in 2005. The main reason being increased use of N-fertilizer. However crop selection plays an important role in N2O emissions and there are crops providing high economic returns but low N-fertilizer requirements. Agriculture sector could contribute considerably to GDP even with very low N2O emissions. Indian agriculture practices vary widely in input applications and crop yields across states. The gradual transition from traditional to modern agriculture over past two decades has enhanced the intensity of inputs like N-fertilizer. A simple correlation based on 1985–2005 trends shows that, ceteris paribus, a 10% increase in total crop production is accompanied with a 12.4% increase in N-fertilizer application and a 9.7% increase in total N2O emissions from India.

The paper uses an integrated assessment model, GCAM, to analyze two emission stabilization approaches for India – a conventional approach relying on carbon price to typically influence fuel switch and carbon capture and storage responses, and a sustainability approach that aims to conserve resources and deliver multiple dividends. An important feature of the sustainability approach is the focus on national policies to push solar and wind technologies. The paper concludes that sustainability push at a global level for renewable energy technologies is essential together with coordinated national policies and actions, if the 2 °C target is to be achieved with lower global welfare losses. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd and ERP Environment.

PurposeIndia began gas imports since 2004 through liquified natural gas (LNG) route. Imports through trans‐country gas pipelines could help in bringing gas directly into the densely populated Northern part of India, which are far from domestic gas resources as well as coastal LNG terminals. The purpose of this paper is to report scenarios, which quantify the impacts for India of regional cooperation to materialize trans‐country pipelines. The analysis covers time period from 2005 to 2030.Design/methodology/approachThe long‐term energy system model ANSWER‐MARKAL is used for the analysis.FindingsTrans‐country pipelines could deliver direct economic benefit of US$310 billion for the period 2010‐2030. Besides these, there are positive externalities in terms of lower greenhouse gas emissions and improved local environment, and enhanced energy security. However, the benefits are sensitive to global gas prices as higher gas prices would reduce the demand for gas and also the positive externalities from using gas.Practical implicationsTrans‐country pipelines are of great importance to India as they add 0.4 per cent to gross domestic product over the period besides yielding positive environmental externalities and improved energy security.Originality/valueQuantification of benefits from trans‐country pipeline proposals till 2030.

Electricity sector is among the key users of natural gas. The sustained electricity deficit and environment policies have added to an already rising demand for gas. This paper tries to understand gas demand in future from electricity sector. This paper models the future demand for gas in India from the electricity sector under alternative scenarios for the period 2005–2025, using bottom-up ANSWER MARKAL model. The scenarios are differentiated by alternate economic growth projections and policies related to coal reforms, infrastructure choices and local environment. The results across scenarios show that gas competes with coal as a base-load option if price difference is below US $ 4 per MBtu. At higher price difference gas penetrates only the peak power market. Gas demand is lower in the high economic growth scenario, since electricity sector is more flexible in substitution of primary energy. Gas demand reduces also in cases when coal supply curve shifts rightwards such as under coal reforms and coal-by-wire scenarios. Local environmental (SO2 emissions) control promotes end of pipe solutions flue gas de-sulfurisation (FGD) initially, though in the longer term mitigation happens by fuel substitution (coal by gas) and introduction of clean coal technologies integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC).

Coal is the abundant domestic energy resource in India and is projected to remain so in future under a business-as-usual scenario. Using domestic coal mitigates national energy security risks. However coal use exacerbates global climate change. Under a strict climate change regime, coal use is projected to decline in future. However this would increase imports of energy sources like natural gas (NG) and nuclear and consequent energy security risks for India. The paper shows that carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) can mitigate CO2 emissions from coal-based large point source (LPS) clusters and therefore would play a key role in mitigating both energy security risks for India and global climate change risks. This paper estimates future CO2 emission projections from LPS in India, identifies the potential CO2 storage types at aggregate level and matches the two into the future using Asia-Pacific Integrated Model (AIM/Local model) with a Geographical Information System (GIS) interface. The paper argues that clustering LPS that are close to potential storage sites could provide reasonable economic opportunities for CCS in future if storage sites of different types are further explored and found to have adequate capacity. The paper also indicates possible LPS locations to utilize CCS opportunities economically in future, especially since India is projected to add over 220,000 MW of thermal power generation capacity by 2030.

India has reasons to be concerned about climate change. Over 650 million people depend on climate-sensitive sectors, such as rain-fed agriculture and forestry, for livelihood and over 973 million people are exposed to vector borne malarial parasites. Projection of climatic factors indicates a wider exposure to malaria for the Indian population in the future. If precautionary measures are not taken and development processes are not managed properly some developmental activities, such as hydro-electric dams and irrigation canal systems, may also exacerbate breeding grounds for malaria. This article integrates climate change and developmental variables in articulating a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, with malaria incidence in India as a case study. The climate change variables include temperature, rainfall, humidity, extreme events, and other secondary variables. Development variables are income levels, institutional mechanisms to implement preventive measures, infrastructure development that could promote malarial breeding grounds, and other policies. The case study indicates that sustainable development variables may sometimes reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, while it may sometimes also exacerbate these impacts if the development variables are not managed well and therefore they produce a negative impact on the system. The study concludes that well crafted and well managed developmental policies could result in enhanced resilience of communities and systems, and lower health impacts due to climate change.

Low-carbon society scenarios visualize social, economic and technological transitions through which societies respond to climate change. This article assesses two paradigms for transiting to a low-carbon future in India. An integrated modelling framework is used for delineating and assessing the alternative development pathways having equal cumulative CO2 emissions during the first half of the 21st century. The first pathway assumes a conventional development pattern together with a carbon price that aligns India's emissions to an optimal 550 ppmv CO2e stabilization global response. The second emissions pathway assumes an underlying sustainable development pattern characterized by diverse response measures typical of the ‘sustainability’ paradigm. A comparative analysis of the alternative development strategies is presented on multiple indicators such as energy security, air quality, technology stocks and adaptive capacity, and conclusions are drawn.

India has good reasons to be concerned about climate change as it could adversely affect the achievement of vital national development goals related to socio-economic development, human welfare, health, energy availability and use, and infrastructure. The paper attempts to develop a framework for integrated impact assessment and adaptation responses, using a recently built railroad coastal infrastructure asset in India as an example. The framework links climate change variables - temperature, rainfall, sea level rise, extreme events, and other secondary variables - and sustainable development variables - technology, institutions, economic, and other policies. The study indicates that sustainable development variables generally reduce the adverse impacts on the system due to climate change alone, except when they are inadequately applied. The paper concludes that development is a vital variable for integrated impact assessment. Well crafted developmental policies could result in a less-GHG intensive future, enhanced adaptive capacities of communities and systems, and lower impacts due to climate change.

The paper presents a number of ideas on how climate change policy implementation in developing countries can be supported by alternative international cooperation mechanisms that are based on stakeholder interests and policy priorities including broader economic and social development issues. It includes a brief review of current development policies, technological research and promotion efforts, and climate change that demonstrates that mutual policy initiatives undertaken by governments and the private sector actually have major positive impacts on climate change without being initiated by this global policy concern. Furthermore a number of examples are given on how future development objectives in Brazil, China, and India jointly can support economic and social goals and global climate change concerns if these goals are taken into consideration and supported by international cooperative mechanisms. The paper proposes international cooperative mechanisms that can support the implementation of integrated development and climate change policies. The mechanisms include an international sustainable development (SD) and Climate Finance Mechanism (SDCFM), technology development and transition programmes, technology standards, and other measures.

The relationship between cities and climate change has been under discussion by researchers and policy makers. It is an accepted fact that cities have a very important role to play in mitigating greenhouse gas emissions. This is especially true for rapidly growing cities in developing countries like India where urban population growth, spatial expansion, and economic development have resulted in increasing demand for energy. Future per capita CO2 emissions are expected to increase by four times between now and 2050. At the same time, like many other cities in developing countries, Indian cities are experiencing simultaneous challenges including infrastructure scarcity, air quality deterioration, and inadequate water resources. Large populations, high densities, presence of informal settlements, and industries within these cities have made them vulnerable to climate extremes. Urban infrastructure also will be at risk from climate change events including intense precipitation, flooding, and heat events. Future growth in urban areas will exacerbate existing issues of infrastructure provision and environmental issues of air quality, water, and waste. Climate change will be an added dimension to these urban challenges. Current urban planning process does not mainstream climate concerns and therefore necessitates the search for alternate approaches. Using case studies of selected cities, the chapter briefly highlights mitigation and adaptation challenges for these selected Indian cities and suggests a framework for integrating climate change concerns in urban planning and management.

Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible.

The study examines the dynamics of carbon emissions baselines of electricity generation in Indian states and Chinese provinces in the backdrop of ongoing electricity sector reforms in these countries. Two Indian states—Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh, and three Chinese provinces–Guangdong, Liaoning and Hubei have been chosen for detailed analysis to bring out regional variations that are not captured in aggregate country studies. The study finds that fuel mix is the main driver behind the trends exhibited by the carbon baselines in these five cases. The cases confirm that opportunities exist in the Indian and Chinese electricity sectors to lower carbon intensity mainly in the substitution of other fuels for coal and, to a lesser extent, adoption of more efficient and advanced coal-fired generation technology. Overall, the findings suggest that the electricity sectors in India and China are becoming friendlier to the global environment. Disaggregated analysis, detailed and careful industry analysis is essential to establishing a power sector carbon emissions baseline as a reference for CDM crediting. However, considering all the difficulties associated with the baseline issue, our case studies demonstrate that there is merit in examining alternate approaches that rely on more aggregated baselines.

The global climate change stabilization regime will have a bearing on future emission pathways of each nation. Corresponding to a combination of stabilization targets and a future global socioeconomic and technology scenario, there are national emissions pathways that when aggregated would make the global regime most cost effective. The underlying hypothesis of this article is that the disaggregated national (regional) scenarios, with explicit inclusion of developing country dynamics in scenario constructions and modeling frameworks, would enhance the qualitative and quantitative understanding of emissions pathways and mitigation strategies compared with the present exercises. The scenario construction for India pays specific attention to developing country dynamics, including multiple socioeconomic and demographic transitions. The article also delineates the lessons for modeling of these transitions in developing countries. The emissions pathways discussion, to begin with, considers 100-year nonintervention scenarios. For the business-as-usual scenario, the optimal portfolio of mitigation interventions in India corresponding to 550ppm (by volume) global concentration stabilization is presented. In conclusion, the article asserts the need for realistic inclusion of developing country transitions in global scenarios and modeling exercises so as to improve the emissions assessments and delineation of mitigation strategies for stabilization.

This paper provides the trends of greenhouse gas (GHG) and local air pollutant emissions of India for 1985–2005. The GHGs covered are six Kyoto gases, namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), perfluorocarbons (PFCs), hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) and sulfur hexafluoride (SF6). The local air pollutants are sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen oxides (NOX), carbon monoxide (CO) and total suspended particulates (TSP). These estimates incorporate some of the most recent scientific assessments for India. The multigas emissions have varied sectoral and fuel-based dominance, as well as regional distribution patterns. Coal consumption in power sector dominates CO2 and SO2 emissions, while power and road transport equally contribute to NOX emissions. Rice cultivation and livestock-related emissions from the agriculture sector dominate CH4 emissions, while synthetic fertilizer use in the same sector is the major source of N2O emissions. PFC emissions are dominated by C2F6 and CF4 emissions from aluminum production. The majority of HFC emissions are contributed by HFC-23, a by-product during the production of HCFC-22 that is widely used in refrigeration industry. CO emissions have dominance from biomass burning. Particulate emissions are dominated by biomass burning (residential sector), road transport and coal combustion in large plants. These varied emission patterns provide interesting policy links and disjoints, such as—which and where mitigation flexibility for the Kyoto gases, exploring co-benefits of CO2 and SO2 mitigation, and technology and development pathway dependence of emissions. The present inventory assessment is a pointer to the future emission pathways for India wherein local air pollutant and GHG emissions, although connected, may not move in synchronization and therefore would require alignment through well crafted development and environment strategies.