1. Estimación del rendimiento de la soya (Glicine max) para el escenario climático SSP2-4.5.
- Author
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González-Robaina, Felicita, Cisneros-Zayas, Enrique, Duarte-Díaz, Carmen, Chaterlán-Durruthy, Yoima, and Herrera-Puebla, Julián
- Subjects
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CROP yields , *CLIMATE change models , *PLANT genetics , *RED soils , *CONDITIONED response - Abstract
To analyze the different impacts of climate change and due to the high uncertainty regarding future climate conditions, it is advisable to work with scenarios, which are coherent and consistent descriptions of how the Earth's climate system can change in the future. The goal of this study is to predict the yields of soybean planted in Ferrallitic Red soil in the Alquízar region under the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario of the Hadgem3, Mpi-esm1 and Mri-esm2 models with the use of the AquaCrop simulation model. To select the hydrological years, a study of a series of 28 years (2023-2050) was carried out for the period November-April (crop development period) for each model. The possibility of achieving potential yields between 2,72 and 3,27 t ha-1 and an agronomic water productivity that varies between 0,78-0,91 kg m-3 is evident in soybeans, if the crop is not subjected to any type of limitation except plant genetics, solar radiation, temperature, and rainfall is sufficient in this dry period. The highest average yields were simulated by the HadGEM3 model with 3,27 t ha-1. If irrigation is applied only to guarantee soybean germination, reductions with respect to potential yield are estimated between 14-95%. The comparative study of yields in the SSP2-4.5 climate change scenario in the different models demonstrates the influence of these conditions on the crop response. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024