Search

Resumo Este artigo examina a interpretação da teoria econômica de John Maynard Keynes inspirada na obra de Piero Sraffa sobre os preços. Após breve introdução, a segunda seção considera até que ponto o multiplicador, tal como proposto por autores sraffianos, exaure o princípio da demanda efetiva sem levar em conta a tradição de abordagem psicológica da economia desenvolvida em Cambridge, bem como a concepção de incerteza formulada na Teoria Geral. A terceira seção trata dos aspectos monetários do pensamento de Keynes e de sua compatibilidade com o conceito de preços de reprodução de Sraffa calculados com base numa taxa uniforme de lucro. Na quarta seção analisa-se a controvérsia sobre o retorno de técnicas, a sua conexão com a multiplicidade de taxas internas de retorno, bem como a relação entre configuração produtiva e distribuição de renda. Nas considerações finais, os pontos de bifurcação entre os paradigmas analíticos keynesiano e sraffiano são ressaltados. Abstract This paper reviews the interpretation of John Maynard Keynes’s economic theory inspired by the perspective of Piero Sraffa’s work on prices. After some initial remarks, the second section asks whether the multiplier, as advanced by Sraffian authors, exhausts the principle of effective demand without taking into account the Cambridge tradition of economic analysis through psychological lenses, as well as the notion of uncertainty put forward in the General Theory. Section three deals with the monetary aspects of Keynes’s thought, examining its compatibility with Sraffa’s definition of normal prices assuming a uniform profit rate. The fourth section revises the controversy over the reswitching paradox, its connection with the multiplicity of internal return rates, and the relationship between productive structure and income distribution. The concluding remarks highlight the bifurcation points between the Keynesian and the Sraffian theoretical paradigms.

As Marxism and socialism pass through watershed years it is important to reflect on the abiding questions of Marxist theory and empirical analysis. This article takes up this task in the context of East Asia under the impetus of globalisation and neo-liberalism, introducing a collection of five articles collected in the special issue. The article shows that questions Marx posed about the global economy more than a century ago remain prescient and continue to animate cutting-edge research, as shown in the articles in this special issue.

This paper establishes that entry and exit regulate the top half of the profitability distribution in the post-1970 U.S. economy. We, first, document stability in the distribution of total profits earned on tangible, intangible, and financial capital. Whereas a narrower measure of returns on tangible capital, instead, suggests rising dispersion, it fails to capture post-1970 growth in intangible and financial assets. Second, we use quantile decompositions to show that churning - specifically, exit for cause - regulates median and top-end profitability. Thus, the process by which competition drives out unprofitable firms acts to stabilize profit rates in the U.S. economy.

European Journal of Comparative Economics, Vol 15. no. 1 (Summer 2018), p. 83-118, Recent global financial crisis and ongoing turbulence in the global economy revived interest in the classical hypothesis of declining profit rates and vanishing profit opportunities as one of the reasons of economic instabilities. This paper, while not joining theoretical debate on the driving factors of profit rates’ decline, reconsiders empirically the hypothesis of the secular decline in economy-wide profit rates. A panel of unit root tests is used and deterministic and stochastic trend models (with or without structural breaks) are estimated. It is shown that instead of continuous downward trend, profit rates exhibit diverse dynamics–random walk, deterioration with breaks, reversals, or the absence of trend. Likewise, it is shown in an exploratory analysis that a variety of factors were determining profit rates, with capital productivity and competitive dynamics in the economy likely being the most salient.

Gelişmekte olan piyasalarda finansal sektör içinde yer alan sermaye yatırımlarında geçtiğimiz yirmi yıl içerisinde aşırı derecede artışlar görülmüştür. Doğrudan yabancı sermayeli yatırımlar artık tüm ülkeler için oldukça önem taşımaktadır. Küreselleşme olgusu ile birlikte yabancı sermayeli yatırımlar finans sektöründe daha fazla yer almaya başlamıştır. Gelişmekte olan ülkeler arasında bulunan Türkiye, yabancı sermaye yatırımları içinde tercih edilen ülkeler arasında bulunmaktadır.2000 ve 2001 yıllarında ülkemizde bankacılık sektöründe yaşanan krizlerden sonra yapılan düzenlemeler ve dünya ekonomilerinde gelişen büyüme trendi bankacılık sektörünü cazip hale getirmiştir.Sermaye yatırımları ile Türkiye'de cari açığa, istihdama, gayri safi yurt içi hâsılaya ve rekabet şartları ile artan kalite standartlarına yapmış olduğu pozitif katkıların varlığı da inkâr edilemez. Ayrıca üretimin artması, ticaret hacminin ve kazancın yükselmesi ile bankacılık sistemine mevduat ve kredi hacmi bakımından büyük bir artış sağlamış olması da yabancı sermayenin dolaylı etkileri arasında bulunmaktadır. Yabancı sermayeli yatırımların sektöre kattığı ikincil etkiler ise gelişen pazar şartları ile hizmet standartları, ürün çeşitliği ve kârlılık oranına çarpan etkisidir.Bu çalışma ile Türk bankacılık sektöründe ortalama kredi faizi ve hacminin kamu ve özel bankalar üzerindeki net kara olan etkisi ilgili yapılan testler ve analizlerle ifade edilmiştir. In the past two decades, the investment of foreign capitals in the finance sector of developing markets has increased extremely. The direct foreign-capital investments have now importance for every country. With the development of globalization, the foreign-capital investments have started to take more places in the finance sector. Being among the developing countries, Turkey has been among preferred countries for the foreign direct investments.Regulations that took place following crisis in the banking sector in 2000 and 2001 and the growth trend in the world economies have made the banking sector attractive. It cannot be denied that the foreign investments made positive contributions to the current deficit, employment, gross domestic product, increasing quality standards with competition rules. Also, the indirect effect of foreign capitals include a bigger increase to the banking system's deposit and loan volume because of the production increase and an increase in volume trade and profit. The secondary effects of the foreign-capital investments to the sector are that it has multiplier effects on service standards, product variety, and profit margin with the developing market conditions. This study tells the tests and analysis related to the effect of net profit of loan interest and volume of Turkish banking sector on the net profit of public and private banks. 99

Katılım bankaları mevduat bankalarına göre göreceli olarak daha yüksek kar/faiz oranlarından kredi kullandırmaktadır. Daha yüksek maliyetle kredi kullandıran katılım bankalarını mevduat bankalarına tercih eden müşterilerin daha düşük ödeme gücüne sahip sorunlu müşteri kitlesi olacağı ve bunun sonucu olarak da katılım bankalarının takipteki kredi oranlarının mevduat bankalarının takipteki kredi oranlarına göre daha yüksek olacağı öngörülmektedir. Bu çalışmada Ocak 2005 ve Eylül 2015 tarihleri arasında Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren Katılım Bankalarının kredi kullandırımlarında uygulanan aylık kar oranları ve takipteki kredi oranları (NPL-non performing loan), Türkiye’de faaliyet gösteren Mevduat Bankaların kredi kullandırımlarında uygulanan aylık faiz oranları ve takipteki kredi oranları verileri kullanılmıştır. Katılım bankaları ve mevduat bankalarının kar ve faiz oranları ile takipteki kredi oranları arasındaki ilişki; korelasyon, VAR, Granger nedensellik ve etki-tepki analizleriyle incelenmiştir. Analizler neticesinde takipteki kredi oranlarının direkt olarak kar/faiz oranlarının bir sonucu olmadığı yönünde bulgular elde edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre, öngörüldüğü gibi katılım bankalarının mevduat bankalarından daha yüksek kar/faiz oranından kredi kullandırması takipteki kredi oranlarını doğrudan etkilemediği belirlenmiştir., Participation banks’s credit profit rates are higher than depozit bank’s credit interest rates. It is believed that, eventhough with higher financing costs, customers who choose participation banks over to deposit banks shall have a problematic profile that has lower payment power. Therefore, it is expected that paticiptaion bank’s NPL ratios would be higher than depozit bank’s NPL ratios. Monthly profit rates applied for credits and non-performing loan(NPL) ratios of participation banks which are operating in Turkey, monthly interest rates applied for credits and NPL ratios of deposit banks which are operating in Turkey for the time between January 2005 and September 2015 are used. For determining the relationship between participation bank’s profit rates and deposit bank’s interest rates with NPL ratios; correlation, unit root test, VAR, Granger causality, and impulse-response analyses are applied. Due to analyese’s results, NPL ratios are not direct result of profit/interest rates. In the light of analyses, it is determined that participation bank’s higher profits rates for credit are not resulted to higher NPL ratio as it is foreseen.

The thesis shows how the dynamics a large pool of publicly traded firms can be meaningful described by a single stochastic equation under statistical equilibrium approximation. The whole dynamics of profitability of the pool of firms is characterized by just two parameters that can be derived from the equilibrium distribution. The only idiosyncratic parameter is the speed of mean reversion., La tesis muestra cómo la dinámica de un gran conjunto de empresas que cotizan en bolsa puede ser descrita de forma significativa mediante una única ecuación estocástica bajo la aproximación del equilibrio estadístico. Toda la dinámica de la rentabilidad del conjunto de empresas se caracteriza por dos parámetros que pueden derivarse de la distribución del equilibrio. El único parámetro idiosincrásico es la velocidad de la reversión media.

Bu çalışmanın amacı, hisse senedi piyasasında finans sektörü yatırımcılarının süpriz kara verdiği tepkiyi davranışsal finans üzerinden araştırmaktır. 11 finans şirketi baz alınarak Ocak 2011 – Aralık 2015 dönemi için üç aylık veriler test edilmiştir. Yatırımcıların verdiği tepki ve davranışlar, anormal getiri, kümülatif anormal getiri hesaplamaları yapılarak ANOVA testi ile incelenmiştir. Yapılan çalışmalar sonucu finans sektörü yatırımcısının sürpriz kara anormal tepki vermediği ve Borsa İstanbul finans sektörü hisse senetlerinde etkin piyasa hipotezinin desteklendiği görülmüştür. The purpose of this study is to analyze the reaction of financial sector investors to earnings surprises in the perspective of behavioral finance. The analysis is conducted on 11 financial sector companies quoted to BIST in quarterly basis for the period spanning from January 2011 to December 2015 The investors' reactions is measured with abnormal and cumulative abnormal method in three days event window and the differences is analyzed with ANOVA and t-test methods. The results showed that the financial sector investor does not overreact to earnings surprises and efficient market hypothesis is supported for the stocks financial sector companies in Borsa İstanbul. 58

Bu tez çalışmasında, küresel ekonomik kriz ile konut piyasası arasında, kâr oranlarının yıllar içindeki hareketliliği ve finansallaşma üzerinden bir ilişki kurulmaya çalışılmıştır. Dünya Ekonomisi, 1980'ler ile bir dönüşüm sürecine girmiş, finansal serbestlik lehine ve emek aleyhine politikalar öne çıkmıştır. Bu doğrultuda, varlık fiyatlarında ve borçluluk oranlarında yükselmeler meydana gelmiştir. Bu durum, 2008 yılı itibariyle tüm dünyayı etkileyen bir krize yol açmıştır.Kriz sonrası, merkez ekonomilerinin likidite artışı ağırlıklı politikaları, çevre ekonomilerinin varlık fiyatlarında spekülatif hareketlere sebep olmuştur. Türkiye'de bu hareketliliğin en çok yaşandığı ülkelerden biridir. Ülkemizin bu dönemdeki iktisadi büyüme politikalarında, inşaat ve finans kompleksinin son derece etkili olması, konut piyasasında ortaya çıkabilecek olumsuzlukların tüm ekonomiyi etkileyecek bir bunalıma dönüşmesi sözkonusu olabilir. Anahtar Kelimeler : Kriz, Finansallaşma, Konut, Ekonomi, Kâr Oranları In this thesis study, it is aimed to be establish the relationship between the global economic crisis and the housing market via fluctuations of the finances and profit ratios over the years. The World Economy has entered a transformation process by the 1980s, policies favoring financial deregulations and against labor have come to the forefront. In this direction, asset price and indebtedness have risen. This led to a crisis that affected the whole world as of 2008.After the crisis, priority policies of increasing liquidity of centre economies have caused speculative movements in the asset prices of periphery economies. Turkey is one of the countries where this activity is most experienced. The fact that the construction and finance complex is extremely effective in the economic growth policies of our country during this period, it may be the case that the negativities that may arise in the housing market will become a depression that will affect the entire economy.Key Words : Crisis, Financialization, Housing, Economy, Profit Rate 104

Tez (doktora) - Anadolu Üniversitesi, Anadolu Üniversitesi, Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İktisat Anabilim Dalı, Kayıt no: 1349, İktisat teorisi, A. Smith'in yaşadığı dönemden bu yana ekonomide konjonktür dalgalanmalarının kaynakları ile ilgili görüş birliğine varabilmiş değildir. Konjonktür dalgalanmalarının nedenleri, ekonominin herhangi bir müdahale olmaksızın dengeye gelip-gelmemesine göre açıklanmaktadır. Ana akım iktisat düşüncesinin öncülük ettiği yaklaşıma göre, genişleme ve daralma dönemlerinin ortaya çıkmasında dışsal şoklar (teknoloji ve arz şokları gibi) etkilidir. Keynesyen çizgideki iktisat düşüncesine göre ekonomide görülen dalgalanmaların içsel (toplam talep, yatırım, bölüşüm vb.) nedenleri vardır. Bu tez çalışmasında, OECD ekonomilerinde, 1990-2013 dönemi için, konjonktür dalgalanmalarının ortaya çıkmasında büyük rol oynayan özel sektörün tasarruf ve kâr oranlarının etkileri panel veri yöntemleri kullanılarak araştırılmaktadır. Bulgular; kâr ve bir yıl gecikmesi alınmış tasarruf oranlarının konjonktür dalgalanmaları üzerinde pozitif etkiye sahip olduğunu göstermektedir. Bir başka ifadeyle, tasarruf ve kâr oranlarındaki artış trend düzeyinden yukarı doğru sapmalara neden olmaktadır. Diğer taraftan analizlerde kullanılan; ticari ve finansal açıklık, toplam faktör verimliliği, ileri teknoloji ihracatı, yurt içi kredi hacmi, M2 para arzı, reel döviz kuru ve hükümet harcamaları değişkenlerindeki artışlar trend düzeyinden yukarı (canlanma eğilimi), faiz, enflasyon ve işsizlik oranları ise trend düzeyinden aşağıya doğru (resesyon eğilimi) sapmalara yol açmaktadır. Panel ARDL sonuçları ise tasarruf ve kar oranlarının konjonktür yönlü olduğunu göstermektedir.

The question how the real and the financial side of a capitalist economy relate to each other has been a frequently recurring topic in the history of economic thought. Our paper addresses this question from the viewpoint that capital ultimately seeks returns from its perpetual reallocation and essentially faces two choices: it can either be “entrepreneurially” allocated to real economic activity, or it can be “financially” invested in legal claims against such activity. Adopting such a perspective, we study here how real and financial returns relate to each other over the past fifteen years, both within and across countries, by considering more than 30,000 publicly traded firms in more than forty countries that stand for 70% of the global population and about 90% of world income. We compare the average rates of return to both types of investment and their respective volatilities. While average returns, perhaps somewhat surprisingly, turn out to be roughly equal across the two domains, the volatility of financial returns exceeds ‘real volatility’ by an order of magnitude. From a systemic point of view, these findings raise the question why capital would seek out financial investments in the first place.

The basic philosophy behind Gibrat's rule of proportionate effect has been to find some common mechanism in the growth process of business firms, based on the idea that growth rates are independent of size and drawn from the same distribution. After decades of research, however, it seems fair to say that the 'law' fails to provide a universal mechanism for the growth of firms. Here we take the position that it is more plausible for Gibrat's approach to apply to firm profitability rather than firm growth, in line with the classical idea of economic competition as a dynamic process of capital reallocation. Considering a sample of more than five hundred long-lived US corporations from virtually all sectors, we compare the statistical properties of growth and profit rates over a time span of thirty years, and find that profit rates and their volatilities are independent of size, which is not true of growth rates. We also find that the empirical densities of both profitability and growth can be described by exponential power (or Subbotin) distributions, but there are pronounced differences in their parameterizations and autocorrelation structures. We argue that a recently proposed diffusion process not only reproduces the cross-sectional distribution of profit rates, but is also consistent with the empirical time series of individual firms and their autocorrelations. In the natural sciences such a situation is commonly referred to as a statistical equilibrium, while econometricians speak of ergodicity and stationarity. Our economic interpretation of this property is that all surviving firms are subject to the same competitive pressures of capital reallocation, irrespective of their industry or particular line of business. They all face the same profitability benchmark and volatility, while their idiosyncratic efforts merely have an effect on the persistence of abnormal profits. In other words, survivors have to participate in the same game and can only choose to do so at different 'speeds'. We conclude with the empirical observation that the speed of convergence from abnormal profits to the system-wide average depends negatively on firm size, diversification, and capital intensity.

Kâr farklılıkları, kapitalist ekonomide rekabetin doğası hakkında bilgi veren önemli bir göstergedir. Rekabet sürecinin uzun vadede kâr farklılıklarını ortadan kaldırması beklenmektedir. Bu çalışmada altı OECD ülkesi imalat sanayii alt sektörlerinin kâr farklılıklarının kalıcılığı araştırılmaktadır. Eklenti kâr oranı, ortalama kâr oranı, kâr payı, hâsıla-sermaye oranı ve esneklik katsayısı gibi kârlılık göstergelerinin rekabet hipotezine uygunluğu zaman serileri yöntemi ile test edilmiştir. Eklenti kâr oranı ve yatırım esnekliği katsayısı Klasik yaklaşımın eğilimsel eşitlenme tezini doğrularken, ortalama kâr oranı, kâr payı ve hâsıla-sermaye oranı ise Neoklasik yaklaşımın yakınsama tezine uygun sonuçlar vermiştir. Rekabet analizine en uygun değişkenlerin eklenti kâr oranı ve yatırım esnekliği katsayısı olduğu görülmektedir.Anahtar Kelimeler: Rekabet, Kâr Oranı, Kalıcılık, Yakınsama, Çekim Gücü, OECD. Profit differentials are an important indicator that provides information about the nature of competition in capitalist economy. This differential is expected to be eliminated by competition process in the long run. This dissertation uses recently available manufacturing sub-sectorial data for the OECD countries to examine the empirical validity for the hypothesis of the persistence of profit differentials. This time series analysis employs the incremental profit rate, average profit rate, profit share, capacity-capital ratio and investment elasticity for each six OECD country. While the incremental profit rate and investment elasticity justify the thesis of tendential equalization of the classical approach, the results of the average profit rate, profit share and capacity-capital ratio are compatible with the convergence thesis of the neoclassical approach. This shows that the incremental profit rate and investment elasticity are the best of all to test gravitation of the industrial rates of return around a common long run value by competition due to capital mobility.Keywords: Competition, Profit Rate, Persistence Analysis, Convergence, Gravitation of Profit Rates, OECD 145

In this paper, we analyze the distributional properties of the balance sheets of Icelandic firms by performing an empirical analysis of total assets, profit rates and growth rates using a data set of 2818 Icelandic firms during the period 2000-2009. We find that the firms size measure, i.e. total assets, have the same heavy tail characteristics as various studies have shown, e.g. for U.S. and Italian firms. The heavy tail nature of the total assets distribution seems to be robust w.r.t. a boom-bust cycle of the economy as well as special characteristics of Icelandic firms, e.g. their relatively small size and private ownership. Another important finding is that the profit rates, or return on assets, of Icelandic firms follow a Laplace like distribution similar to U.S. firms. Additionally, we identified deviations from the distributional regularities, namely the power law behavior of firms' size and Laplacian distributions of growth and profit rates, during the booming period of the economy 2005-2007.

In this paper, we analyze the distributional properties of the balance sheets of Icelandic firms by performing an empirical analysis of total assets, profit rates and growth rates using a data set of 2818 Icelandic firms during the period 2000-2009. We find that the firms size measure, i.e. total assets, have the same heavy tail characteristics as various studies have shown, e.g. for U.S. and Italian firms. The heavy tail nature of the total assets distribution seems to be robust w.r.t. a boom-bust cycle of the economy as well as special characteristics of Icelandic firms, e.g. their relatively small size and private ownership. Another important finding is that the profit rates, or return on assets, of Icelandic firms follow a Laplace like distribution similar to U.S. firms. Additionally, we identified deviations from the distributional regularities, namely the power law behavior of firms' size and laplacian distributions of growth and profit rates, during the booming period of the economy 2005-2007.

Depuis 1998 en France, malgré la relative stagnation de leur niveau, la part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée a augmenté et celle des profits diminué. Cette érosion, accentuée par la réduction de la productivité apparente du capital, fit chuter la rentabilité. Afin de rétablir leur taux de profit, les entreprises ont accru leurs investissements. Mais la hausse de la composition organique du capital, accélérée par la hausse spéculative des valeurs de marché des actifs, a produit une suraccumulation. C’est la cause réelle de la crise bancaire et financière. Le troisième choc pétrolier à partir de 1999, surtout conséquence de la croissance des pays émergents, n’en a été que le catalyseur. Durant le régime fordien, les taux d’intérêt réduits dopaient les profits, durant les années de plomb (1975-1993) les taux élevés les affaiblissaient. Depuis 1998, les taux d’intérêt suivent désormais les taux de profit et la valeur des actions. On retrouve ainsi la théorie d’Adam Smith enrichie par la théorie de la double spéculation sur les marchés financiers. Le taux d’intérêt à long terme est déterminé par le taux de profit moins une prime de risque... Mais les banques et les politiques monétaires perturbent ce jeu par les taux courts bancaires. Ces frottements sociaux correspondent à la critique adressée par Marx à Smith qui renvoie à la politique monétaire keynésienne. Since 1998 in France, in spite of the relative stagnation of their level, the share of salaries in the added value increased and that of the profits decreased. This decline, multiplied by the reduction of the apparent capital productivity, made the returns on capital fall. To restore them, companies indeed increased their investments: the rise of the organic composition of the capital, accelerated by the speculative rise of the market values of assets, produced a suraccumulation. The third oil crisis, which began in 1999, especially consequence of the growth of emerging countries, catalysed this crisis. The banking and financial crises are only the consequences of the cyclical decline of the rate of profit of the real economy since 1998.Since this date, the interest rates follow the rates of profit and the values of the shares, contrary to the previous period when the reduced rates doped the profits (The Glorious Thirty) and the high rates weakened them (The Years of Lead from 1975 till 1993). We so find again Adam Smith's theory where the long-term interest rate is determined by the rate of profit less a risk premium, enriched by that of the theory of the double speculation on the secondary financial markets of shares and bonds. But banks and monetary policies disrupt this game by the banking short rates: development of the criticism of Smith by Marx sending back to the keynesian monetary policy. Desde 1998 en Francia, a pesar del relativo estancamiento de su nivel, la parte de los salarios en el valor agregado ha aumentado y la de las ganancias ha disminuido. Esta erosión, acentuada por la reducción de la productividad aparente del capital, ha hecho caer la rentabilidad. Con el propósito de restablecer sus tasas de ganancia, las empresas han aumentado sus inversiones. Pero el incremento de la composición orgánica del capital, acelerada por el crecimiento especulativo de los valores de mercado de los activos, ha provocado una sobre-acumulación. Esta es la causa real de la crisis bancaria y financiera. El tercer shock petrolero a partir de 1999, consecuencia sobre todo del crecimiento de los países emergentes, no ha sido sino su catalizador. Durante el régimen fordiano, las reducidas tasas de interés aumentaban los beneficios, y durante los años de plomo (1975-93) las tasas elevadas los debilitaban. Desde 1998, las tasas de interés siguen el ritmo de las tasas de ganancia y el valor de las acciones. Se encuentra así nuevamente la teoría de Adam Smith enriquecida por la teoría de la « doble especulación » sobre los mercados financieros. La tasa de interés de largo plazo está determinada por la tasa de ganancias menos un prima de riesgo… Pero los bancos y las políticas monetarias perturban ese juego por las reducidas tasas bancarias. Esas fricciones sociales se corresponden con la crítica de Marx a Smith, que nos remite a la política monetaria keynesiana.

Depuis 1998 en France, malgré la relative stagnation de leur niveau, la part des salaires dans la valeur ajoutée a augmenté et celle des profits diminué. Cette érosion, accentuée par la réduction de la productivité apparente du capital, fit chuter la rentabilité. Afin de rétablir leur taux de profit, les entreprises ont accru leurs investissements. Mais la hausse de la composition organique du capital, accélérée par la hausse spéculative des valeurs de marché des actifs, a produit une suraccumulation. C’est la cause réelle de la crise bancaire et financière. Le troisième choc pétrolier à partir de 1999, surtout conséquence de la croissance des pays émergents, n’en a été que le catalyseur. Durant le régime fordien, les taux d’intérêt réduits dopaient les profits, durant les années de plomb (1975-1993) les taux élevés les affaiblissaient. Depuis 1998, les taux d’intérêt suivent désormais les taux de profit et la valeur des actions. On retrouve ainsi la théorie d’Adam Smith enrichie par la théorie de la double spéculation sur les marchés financiers. Le taux d’intérêt à long terme est déterminé par le taux de profit moins une prime de risque... Mais les banques et les politiques monétaires perturbent ce jeu par les taux courts bancaires. Ces frottements sociaux correspondent à la critique adressée par Marx à Smith qui renvoie à la politique monétaire keynésienne.Since 1998 in France, in spite of the relative stagnation of their level, the share of salaries in the added value increased and that of the profits decreased. This decline, multiplied by the reduction of the apparent capital productivity, made the returns on capital fall. To restore them, companies indeed increased their investments: the rise of the organic composition of the capital, accelerated by the speculative rise of the market values of assets, produced a suraccumulation. The third oil crisis, which began in 1999, especially consequence of the growth of emerging countries, catalysed this crisis. The banking and financial crises are only the consequences of the cyclical decline of the rate of profit of the real economy since 1998.Since this date, the interest rates follow the rates of profit and the values of the shares, contrary to the previous period when the reduced rates doped the profits (The Glorious Thirty) and the high rates weakened them (The Years of Lead from 1975 till 1993). We so find again Adam Smith's theory where the long-term interest rate is determined by the rate of profit less a risk premium, enriched by that of the theory of the double speculation on the secondary financial markets of shares and bonds. But banks and monetary policies disrupt this game by the banking short rates: development of the criticism of Smith by Marx sending back to the keynesian monetary policy.Desde 1998 en Francia, a pesar del relativo estancamiento de su nivel, la parte de los salarios en el valor agregado ha aumentado y la de las ganancias ha disminuido. Esta erosión, acentuada por la reducción de la productividad aparente del capital, ha hecho caer la rentabilidad. Con el propósito de restablecer sus tasas de ganancia, las empresas han aumentado sus inversiones. Pero el incremento de la composición orgánica del capital, acelerada por el crecimiento especulativo de los valores de mercado de los activos, ha provocado una sobre-acumulación. Esta es la causa real de la crisis bancaria y financiera. El tercer shock petrolero a partir de 1999, consecuencia sobre todo del crecimiento de los países emergentes, no ha sido sino su catalizador. Durante el régimen fordiano, las reducidas tasas de interés aumentaban los beneficios, y durante los años de plomo (1975-93) las tasas elevadas los debilitaban. Desde 1998, las tasas de interés siguen el ritmo de las tasas de ganancia y el valor de las acciones. Se encuentra así nuevamente la teoría de Adam Smith enriquecida por la teoría de la « doble especulación » sobre los mercados financieros. La tasa de interés de largo plazo está determinada por la tasa de ganancias menos un prima de riesgo… Pero los bancos y las políticas monetarias perturban ese juego por las reducidas tasas bancarias. Esas fricciones sociales se corresponden con la crítica de Marx a Smith, que nos remite a la política monetaria keynesiana.

Bu çalışmanın amacı 1972-2003 döneminde Türkiye ekonomisinde kâr oranının seyrini ve seyrindeki değişmelere etki eden unsurları incelemektir. Bu amaç çerçevesinde, ilk olarak, kâr oranı eğilimindeki belirgin değişmeler gözlenerek, Türkiye ekonomisi dönemlere ayrılmıştır. Yapılan dönemlendirme sonucunda; Türkiye ekonomisinin belli başlı ekonomik ve politik dönüşümleri ile kâr oranı eğiliminin yönündeki değişmelerin, birbirlerini karşılıklı olarak etkilediği gösterilmiştir. İkinci olarak; kâr oranları, bölüşümü temsil eden kâr payına ve teknolojiyi temsil eden hâsıla-sermaye oranına (sermayenin verimliliği) ayrıştırılmıştır ve bu değişkenlerdeki değişmelerin kâr oranının kısa ve uzun dönemli hareketi üzerindeki etkileri incelenmiştir. Sonuçların gösterdiğine göre; kâr oranının her tarihi düşüşünde sermayenin, krizden, bölüşümü emek aleyhine düzenleyerek çıktığı görülmektedir. Uzun dönemde, kâr oranları düşme eğilimindedir. Bu eğilim üzerinde, sermayenin verimliliğindeki düşüş belirleyici olmuştur. The aim of this study is to analyze the movement of the rate of profit and the factors affecting the changes in the rate of profit in Turkey for the period of 1972-2003. In the study, first, distinctive changes in the rate of profit are observed and Turkish economy is divided into periods according to these changes. With these analyzes it has been shown that, the major transformations in economics and politics, and the movement of the rate of profit affect each other in Turkey. Secondly; the rate of profit is decomposed into two parts as the profit share, which represents distribution and output-capital ratio (productivity of capital) which represents technology. Then, the effects of changes in these two variables on the rate of profit in the short-run and in the long-run are analyzed. The findings of the study reveal that, every time the rate of profit declines, capital recovers from economic crisis by adjusting distribution against labor. In the long run, the rate of profit tends to fall. The decreasing productivity of capital has a determining role in this fall of the profit rate. 170

We express the idea of classical competition in a statistical equilibrium model, where the tendency for competition to equalize profit rates results in an exponential power (or Subbotin) distribution. The model supports and extends recent evidence on the Laplace distribution of growth rates in firm size. We also find tent-shaped distributions in the size growth rates of Forbes Global 2000 companies, which we interpret as preliminary evidence in favor of the hypothesis that classical competition is a globally operating mechanism.

We express the idea of classical competition in a statistical equilibrium model, where the tendency for competition to equalize profit rates results in an exponential power (or Subbotin) distribution. The model supports and extends recent evidence on the Laplace distribution of growth rates in firm size. We also find tent-shaped distributions in the size growth rates of Forbes Global 2000 companies, which we interpret as preliminary evidence in favor of the hypothesis that classical competition is a globally operating mechanism.

Bu arastırmanın amacı, iktisat teorisi içinde ?kâr oranlarının düsmesi yasasının? yerini tespitetmektir. Sermayeye dayalı üretim düzeninde, kâr oranları can alıcı bir öneme sahiptir. Buoranda dalgalanmalar, kapitalist ekonomide yatırım kararları, üretim yönetimi ve piyasayapısı üzerinde etkili olmakta, bu nedenle bir ülkede üretim ve yeniden üretim sürecininincelenmesinde kâr oranlarının gelisim seyrinin tahmini oldukça önemli olmaktadır. ktisatteorisinde, kârların tarihsel seyri üzerine sıkça tartısmalar yapılagelmistir. Bu arastırmada, kâroranlarının düsme egiliminde oldugunu iddia eden teori incelenmis, konu hakkında farklıteorilerin temel kavramları karsılastırılmıs, ve yasa ampirik gözlemler karsısında sınanmıstır. The purpose of this research, is to determinate the role of ?the law of falling rates of profits?in the theory of economics. The rates of profits have a crucial significance in the productionprocess based on capital. Fluctuations in this rate, have great impact on investment decisions,production management and market structure in the capitalist economy, therefore it is highlyimportant to estimate the course of the rate of profits for the production and reproduction in acountry. In the theory of economics, there is much controversy over the historical course ofprofits. In this research, the theory which claim that the rates of profits have a tendancy to fallis examinated, the basic concepts of differing arguments have comparated and this law isinvestigated by empirical observations. 140

236