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In most of the United States, insurance companies may use gender to determine car insurance rates. In addition, several studies have shown that women over the age of 25 generally pay more than men for car insurance. Then, we investigate whether the distributions of claims for women and men differ in location, scale and shape by means of the GAMLSS regression framework, using microdata provided by U.S. and Australian insurance companies, to use this evidence to support policy makers' decisions. We also develop a parametric-bootstrap test to investigate the tail behavior of the distributions. When covariates are not considered, the distribution of claims does not appear to differ by gender. When covariates are included, the regressions provide mixed evidence for the location parameter. However, for female claimants, the spread of the distribution is lower. Our research suggests that, at least for the contexts analyzed, there is no clear statistical reason for charging higher rates to women. While providing evidence to support unisex insurance pricing policies, given the limitations represented by the use of country-specific data, this paper aims to promote further research on this topic with different datasets to corroborate our findings and draw more general conclusions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Usually in latent class (LC) analysis, external predictors are taken to be cluster conditional probability predictors (LC models with external predictors), and/or score conditional probability predictors (LC regression models). In such cases, their distribution is not of interest. Class‐specific distribution is of interest in the distal outcome model, when the distribution of the external variables is assumed to depend on LC membership. In this paper, we consider a more general formulation, that embeds both the LC regression and the distal outcome models, as is typically done in cluster‐weighted modelling. This allows us to investigate (1) whether the distribution of the external variables differs across classes, (2) whether there are significant direct effects of the external variables on the indicators, by modelling jointly the relationship between the external and the latent variables. We show the advantages of the proposed modelling approach through a set of artificial examples, an extensive simulation study and an empirical application about psychological contracts among employees and employers in Belgium and the Netherlands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insurance loss data have peculiar features that can rarely be accounted for by simple parametric distributions. Thus, in this manuscript, we first introduce a new type of location mixture model: the mode mixture. By using convenient mode-parameterized hump-shaped distributions, we present a family of eight mode mixture of unimodal distributions. Then, we fit these models to two real insurance loss datasets, where they are evaluated in terms of goodness of fit and ability to reproduce classical risk measures. We extend the comparisons to existing models based on mode-parameterized hump-shaped distributions. Lastly, using simulated data, we further investigate the performance of the estimated risk measures of our models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article shows how multivariate elliptically contoured (EC) distributions, parameterized according to the mean vector and covariance matrix, can be built from univariate standard symmetric distributions. The obtained distributions are referred to as moment-parameterized EC (MEC) herein. As a further novelty, the article shows how to polynomially reshape MEC distributions and obtain distributions, called leptokurtic MEC (LMEC), having probability density functions characterized by a further parameter expressing their excess kurtosis with respect to the parent MEC distributions. Two estimation methods are discussed: the method of moments and the maximum likelihood. For illustrative purposes, normal, Laplace, and logistic univariate densities are considered to build MEC and LMEC models. An application to financial returns of a set of European stock indexes is finally presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: The expectation–maximization (EM) algorithm is a familiar tool for computing the maximum likelihood estimate of the parameters in hidden Markov and semi‐Markov models. This paper carries out a detailed study on the influence that the initial values of the parameters impose on the results produced by the algorithm. We compare random starts and partitional and model‐based strategies for choosing the initial values for the EM algorithm in the case of multivariate Gaussian emission distributions (EDs) and assess the performance of each strategy with different assessment criteria. Several data generation settings are considered with varying number of latent states, of variables as well as of the level of fuzziness in the data, and discussion on how each factor influences the obtained results is provided. Simulation results show that different initialization strategies may lead to different log‐likelihood values and, accordingly, to different estimated partitions. A clear indication of which strategies should be preferred is given. We further include two real‐data examples, widely analysed in the hidden semi‐Markov model literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The multivariate contaminated normal (MCN) distribution represents a simple heavy-tailed generalization of the multivariate normal (MN) distribution to model elliptical contoured scatters in the presence of mild outliers (also referred to as 'bad' points herein) and automatically detect bad points. The price of these advantages is two additional parameters: proportion of good observations and degree of contamination. However, in a multivariate setting, only one proportion of good observations and only one degree of contamination may be limiting. To overcome this limitation, we propose a multiple scaled contaminated normal (MSCN) distribution. Among its parameters, we have an orthogonal matrix Γ. In the space spanned by the vectors (principal components) of Γ, there is a proportion of good observations and a degree of contamination for each component. Moreover, each observation has a posterior probability of being good with respect to each principal component. Thanks to this probability, the method provides directional robust estimates of the parameters of the nested MN and automatic directional detection of bad points. The term 'directional' is added to specify that the method works separately for each principal component. Mixtures of MSCN distributions are also proposed, and an expectation-maximization algorithm is used for parameter estimation. Real and simulated data are considered to show the usefulness of our mixture with respect to well-established mixtures of symmetric distributions with heavy tails. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many statistical problems involve the estimation of a d × d orthogonal matrix Q . Such an estimation is often challenging due to the orthonormality constraints on Q . To cope with this problem, we use the well-known PLU decomposition, which factorizes any invertible d × d matrix as the product of a d × d permutation matrix P , a d × d unit lower triangular matrix L , and a d × d upper triangular matrix U . Thanks to the QR decomposition, we find the formulation of U when the PLU decomposition is applied to Q . We call the result as PLR decomposition; it produces a one-to-one correspondence between Q and the d d - 1 / 2 entries below the diagonal of L , which are advantageously unconstrained real values. Thus, once the decomposition is applied, regardless of the objective function under consideration, we can use any classical unconstrained optimization method to find the minimum (or maximum) of the objective function with respect to L . For illustrative purposes, we apply the PLR decomposition in common principle components analysis (CPCA) for the maximum likelihood estimation of the common orthogonal matrix when a multivariate leptokurtic-normal distribution is assumed in each group. Compared to the commonly used normal distribution, the leptokurtic-normal has an additional parameter governing the excess kurtosis; this makes the estimation of Q in CPCA more robust against mild outliers. The usefulness of the PLR decomposition in leptokurtic-normal CPCA is illustrated by two biometric data analyses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The research objective of this paper is to handle situations where the empirical distribution of multivariate real-valued data is elliptical and with heavy tails. Many statistical models already exist that accommodate these peculiarities. This paper enriches this branch of literature by introducing the multivariate tail-inflated normal (MTIN) distribution, an elliptical heavy tails generalization of the multivariate normal (MN). The MTIN belongs to the family of MN scale mixtures by choosing a convenient continuous uniform as mixing distribution. Moreover, it has a closed-form for the probability density function characterized by only one additional 'inflation' parameter, with respect to the nested MN, governing the tail-weight. The moment generating function, and the first four moments, are also derived; interestingly, the latter always exist and the excess kurtosis can assume any positive value. The method of moments and maximum likelihood (ML) are considered for estimation. As concerns the latter, a direct approach, as well as a variant of the EM algorithm (namely, the ECME algorithm), are illustrated. Furthermore, a way to approximate covariance matrix of the ML estimator is suggested and the existence of the ML estimates is evaluated. Since the inflation parameter is estimated from the data, robust estimates of the mean vector of the nested MN distribution are automatically obtained by down-weighting. Simulations are performed to compare the estimation methods/algorithms, to investigate the ability of AIC and BIC to select among a set of candidate elliptical models, and to evaluate the robustness of these candidate methods when data are skewed. The findings are the following: ML is better than MM, direct ML is suggested for low dimensions, while the ECME algorithm is to be preferred when the number of variables is higher, AIC and BIC work comparably in selecting the true underlying model, and the MTIN outperforms the competing models in terms of robustness toward skew data. For illustrative purposes, the MTIN distribution is finally fitted to multivariate financial data and compared with other well-established multivariate elliptical distributions. The analysis shows how the proposed model represents a valid alternative to the considered competitors in terms of AIC and BIC, but also in reproducing the higher empirical kurtosis which is common in the financial context. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A correct modelization of the insurance losses distribution is crucial in the insurance industry. This distribution is generally highly positively skewed, unimodal hump-shaped, and with a heavy right tail. Compound models are a profitable way to accommodate situations in which some of the probability masses are shifted to the tails of the distribution. Therefore, in this work, a general approach to compound unimodal hump-shaped distributions with a mixing dichotomous distribution is introduced. A 2-parameter unimodal hump-shaped distribution, defined on a positive support, is considered and reparametrized with respect to the mode and to another parameter related to the distribution variability. The compound is performed by scaling the latter parameter by means of a dichotomous mixing distribution that governs the tail behavior of the resulting model. The proposed model can also allow for automatic detection of typical and atypical losses via a simple procedure based on maximum a posteriori probabilities. Unimodal gamma and log-normal are considered as examples of unimodal hump-shaped distributions. The resulting models are firstly evaluated in a sensitivity study and then fitted to two real insurance loss datasets, along with several well-known competitors. Likelihood-based information criteria and risk measures are used to compare the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

One of the challenges in cluster analysis is the evaluation of the obtained clustering results without using auxiliary information. To this end, a common approach is to use internal validity criteria. For mixtures of linear regressions whose parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood, we propose a three-term decomposition of the total sum of squares as a starting point to define some internal validity criteria. In particular, three types of mixtures of regressions are considered: with fixed covariates, with concomitant variables, and with random covariates. A ternary diagram is also suggested for easier joint interpretation of the three terms of the proposed decomposition. Furthermore, local and overall coefficients of determination are respectively defined to judge how well the model fits the data group-by-group but also taken as a whole. Artificial data are considered to find out more about the proposed decomposition, including violations of the model assumptions. Finally, an application to real data illustrates the use and the usefulness of these proposals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We revisit the generalized hyperbolic (GH) distribution and its nested models. These include widely used parametric choices like the multivariate normal, skew‐t$$ t $$, Laplace, and several others. We also introduce the multiple‐choice LASSO, a novel penalized method for choosing among alternative constraints on the same parameter. A hierarchical multiple‐choice Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) penalized likelihood is optimized to perform simultaneous model selection and inference within the GH family. We illustrate our approach through a simulation study and a real data example. The methodology proposed in this paper has been implemented in R functions which are available as supplementary material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insurance and economic data are often positive, and we need to take into account this peculiarity in choosing a statistical model for their distribution. An example is the inverse Gaussian (IG), which is one of the most famous and considered distributions with positive support. With the aim of increasing the use of the IG distribution on insurance and economic data, we propose a convenient mode-based parameterization yielding the reparametrized IG (rIG) distribution; it allows/simplifies the use of the IG distribution in various branches of statistics, and we give some examples. In nonparametric statistics, we define a smoother based on rIG kernels. By construction, the estimator is well-defined and does not allocate probability mass to unrealistic negative values. We adopt likelihood cross-validation to select the smoothing parameter. In robust statistics, we propose the contaminated IG distribution, a heavy-tailed generalization of the rIG distribution to accommodate mild outliers. Finally, for model-based clustering and semiparametric density estimation, we present finite mixtures of rIG distributions. We use the EM algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters of the mixture and contaminated models. We use insurance data about bodily injury claims, and economic data about incomes of Italian households, to illustrate the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insurance and economic data are frequently characterized by positivity, skewness, leptokurtosis, and multi-modality; although many parametric models have been used in the literature, often these peculiarities call for more flexible approaches. Here, we propose a finite mixture of contaminated gamma distributions that provides a better characterization of data. It is placed in between parametric and non-parametric density estimation and strikes a balance between these alternatives, as a large class of densities can be implemented. We adopt a maximum likelihood approach to estimate the model parameters, providing the likelihood and the expected-maximization algorithm implemented to estimate all unknown parameters. We apply our approach to an artificial dataset and to two well-known datasets as the workers compensation data and the healthcare expenditure data taken from the medical expenditure panel survey. The Value-at-Risk is evaluated and comparisons with other benchmark models are provided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A time-varying latent variable model is proposed to jointly analyze multivariate mixed-support longitudinal data. The proposal can be viewed as an extension of hidden Markov regression models with fixed covariates (HMRMFCs), which is the state of the art for modelling longitudinal data, with a special focus on the underlying clustering structure. HMRMFCs are inadequate for applications in which a clustering structure can be identified in the distribution of the covariates, as the clustering is independent from the covariates distribution. Here, hidden Markov regression models with random covariates are introduced by explicitly specifying state-specific distributions for the covariates, with the aim of improving the recovering of the clusters in the data with respect to a fixed covariates paradigm. The hidden Markov regression models with random covariates class is defined focusing on the exponential family, in a generalized linear model framework. Model identifiability conditions are sketched, an expectation-maximization algorithm is outlined for parameter estimation, and various implementation and operational issues are discussed. Properties of the estimators of the regression coefficients, as well as of the hidden path parameters, are evaluated through simulation experiments and compared with those of HMRMFCs. The method is applied to physical activity data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two families of matrix-variate hidden Markov regression models (MV-HMRMs) are here introduced. The distinction between them relies on the role of the covariates, which can be treated as fixed or random. Parsimony is achieved by using the eigen-decomposition of the components’ covariance matrices. This generates a different number of parsimonious models between the two families: 98 MV-HMRMs with fixed covariates and 9604 MV-HMRMs with random covariates. ECM algorithms are discussed for parameter estimation and, because of the high number of parsimonious models, convenient initialization, and fitting strategies are proposed. Our models are first applied to simulated data, and then to a four-way real dataset concerning the relationship between unemployment and labor force participation in the Italian provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gaussian cluster-weighted model (CWM) is a mixture of regression models with random covariates that allows for flexible clustering of a random vector composed of response variables and covariates. In each mixture component, a Gaussian distribution is adopted for both the covariates and the responses given the covariates. To make the approach robust with respect to the presence of mildly atypical observations, the contaminated Gaussian CWM is introduced. In addition to the parameters of the Gaussian CWM, each mixture component has a parameter controlling the proportion of outliers, one controlling the proportion of leverage points, one specifying the degree of contamination with respect to the response variables, and another specifying the degree of contamination with respect to the covariates. Crucially, these parameters do not have to be specified a priori, adding flexibility to the approach. Furthermore, once the model is estimated and the observations are assigned to the components, a finer intra-group classification in typical points, (mild) outliers, good leverage points, and bad leverage points-concepts of primary importance in robust regression analysis-can be directly obtained. Relations with other mixture-based contaminated models are analyzed, identifiability conditions are provided, an expectation-conditional maximization algorithm is outlined for parameter estimation, and various implementation and operational issues are discussed. Properties of the estimators of the regression coefficients are evaluated through Monte Carlo experiments and compared with other procedures. A sensitivity study is also conducted based on a real data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A family of parsimonious Gaussian cluster-weighted models is presented. This family concerns a multivariate extension to cluster-weighted modelling that can account for correlations between multivariate responses. Parsimony is attained by constraining parts of an eigen-decomposition imposed on the component covariance matrices. A sufficient condition for identifiability is provided and an expectation-maximization algorithm is presented for parameter estimation. Model performance is investigated on both synthetic and classical real data sets and compared with some popular approaches. Finally, accounting for linear dependencies in the presence of a linear regression structure is shown to offer better performance, vis-à-vis clustering, over existing methodologies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Surveys are used to infer the level of social integration of immigrants. Item response theory helps to describe the relationship among responses to test items and latent traits of interest. However, in the presence of nonignorable missing data, which are omitted responses depending on the latent traits to be measured, estimates of the model parameters are biased. To account for nonignorable missing data, the quantity and quality of contacts between immigrants and natives (so called “social integration”) are taken into account through a linear function of the response propensity. Higher education, no intention to migrate again, young age, Albanian nationality, and declaring a non-Muslim religion or none, comparatively favor social integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes the elliptical multivariate leptokurtic-normal (MLN) distribution to fit data with excess kurtosis. The MLN distribution is a multivariate Gram-Charlier expansion of the multivariate normal (MN) distribution and has a closed-form representation characterized by one additional parameter denoting the excess kurtosis. It is obtained from the elliptical representation of the MN distribution, by reshaping its generating variate with the associated orthogonal polynomials. The strength of this approach for obtaining the MLN distribution lies in its general applicability as it can be applied to any multivariate elliptical law to get a suitable distribution to fit data. Maximum likelihood is discussed as a parameter estimation technique for the MLN distribution. Mixtures of MLN distributions are also proposed for robust model-based clustering. An EM algorithm is presented to obtain estimates of the mixture parameters. Benchmark real data are used to show the usefulness of mixtures of MLN distributions. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 45: 95-119; 2017 © 2016 Statistical Society of Canada [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gaussian mixture models with eigen-decomposed covariance structures, i.e. the Gaussian parsimonious clustering models (GPCM), make up the most popular family of mixture models for clustering and classification. Although the GPCM family has been used for almost 20 years, selecting the best member of the family in a given situation remains a troublesome problem. Likelihood ratio (LR) tests are developed to tackle this problem; given a number of mixture components, these LR tests compare each member of the family to the heteroscedastic model under the alternative hypothesis. Along the way, a novel maximum likelihood estimation procedure is developed for two members of the GPCM family. Simulations show that thereference distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the LR statistics when the sample size is not too small and when the mixture components are separate enough; accordingly, in the remaining configurations, a parametric bootstrap approach is also discussed and evaluated. Furthermore, a closed testing procedure, having the defined LR tests as local tests, is considered to assess, in a straightforward way, a unique model in the general family. In contrast with the information criteria that are often employed in the literature as ‘black boxes’, it is only based on one subjective element, the significance level, whose meaning is clear to everyone. Simulation results are presented to investigate the performance of the procedure in situations with gradual departure from the homoscedastic model and its robustness with respect to elliptical departures from normality in each mixture component. Finally, the advantages of the procedure are illustrated via applications to some well-known data sets. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The cluster-weighted model (CWM) is a mixture model with random covariates that allows for flexible clustering/classification and distribution estimation of a random vector composed of a response variable and a set of covariates. Within this class of models, the generalized linear exponential CWM is here introduced especially for modeling bivariate data of mixed-type. Its natural counterpart in the family of latent class models is also defined. Maximum likelihood parameter estimates are derived using the expectation-maximization algorithm and some computational issues are detailed. Through Monte Carlo experiments, the classification performance of the proposed model is compared with other mixture-based approaches, consistency of the estimators of the regression coefficients is evaluated, and several likelihood-based information criteria are compared for selecting the number of mixture components. An application to real data is also finally considered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The modelling of animal movement is an important ecological and environmental issue. It is well-known that animals change their movement patterns over time, according to observable and unobservable factors. To trace the dynamics of behaviors, to identify factors influencing these dynamics and unobserved characteristics driving intra-subjects correlations, we introduce a time-dependent mixed effects projected normal regression model. A set of animal-specific parameters following a hidden Markov chain is introduced to deal with unobserved heterogeneity. For the maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters, we outline an expectation-maximization algorithm. A large-scale simulation study provides evidence on model behavior. The data analysis approach based on the proposed model is finally illustrated by an application to a dataset, which derives from a population of Talitrus saltator from the beach of Castiglione della Pescaia (Italy). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose the family of dimension-wise scaled normal mixtures (DSNMs) to model the joint distribution of a d -variate random variable with real-valued components. Each member of the family generalizes the multivariate normal (MN) distribution in two directions. Firstly, the DSNM has a more general type of symmetry with respect to the elliptical symmetry of the MN distribution. Secondly, the univariate marginals have similar heavy-tailed normal scale mixture distributions with (possibly) different tailedness parameters; as a consequence of practical interest, the DSNM allows for a different excess kurtosis on each dimension. These peculiarities are obtained in an MN scale mixture framework by introducing a d -variate mixing random variable with independent and similar components acting separately for each dimension. We examine several properties of DSNMs, such as the joint density function, hierarchical and stochastic representations, relations with other families of symmetric distributions, type of symmetry, marginal and conditional distributions, no correlation implying independence, moment generating function, and moments of practical interest. For illustrative purposes, we describe two members of the DSNM family obtained in the case of components of the mixing random vector being either uniform or shifted exponential; these are examples of mixing distributions that guarantee a closed-form expression for the joint density of the DSNM. For the two DSNMs analyzed in detail, we introduce parsimony by allowing the d tailedness parameters to be tied across dimensions, and describe algorithms, based on the expectation–maximization (EM) principle, to estimate the parameters by maximum likelihood. We use real data from the financial and biometrical fields to appreciate the advantages of our DSNMs over other symmetric heavy-tailed distributions available in the literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In generalized linear models (GLMs), measures of lack of fit are typically defined as the deviance between two nested models, and a deviance-based R2 is commonly used to evaluate the fit. In this paper, we extend deviance measures to mixtures of GLMs, whose parameters are estimated by maximum likelihood (ML) via the EM algorithm. Such measures are defined both locally, i.e., at cluster-level, and globally, i.e., with reference to the whole sample. At the cluster-level, we propose a normalized two-term decomposition of the local deviance into explained, and unexplained local deviances. At the sample-level, we introduce an additive normalized decomposition of the total deviance into three terms, where each evaluates a different aspect of the fitted model: (1) the cluster separation on the dependent variable, (2) the proportion of the total deviance explained by the fitted model, and (3) the proportion of the total deviance which remains unexplained. We use both local and global decompositions to define, respectively, local and overall deviance R2 measures for mixtures of GLMs, which we illustrate—for Gaussian, Poisson and binomial responses—by means of a simulation study. The proposed fit measures are then used to assess, and interpret clusters of COVID-19 spread in Italy in two time points. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cluster-weighted models (CWMs) are a flexible family of mixture models for fitting the joint distribution of a random vector composed of a response variable and a set of covariates. CWMs act as a convex combination of the products of the marginal distribution of the covariates and the conditional distribution of the response given the covariates. In this paper, we introduce a broad family of CWMs in which the component conditional distributions are assumed to belong to the exponential family and the covariates are allowed to be of mixed-type. Under the assumption of Gaussian covariates, sufficient conditions for model identifiability are provided. Moreover, maximum likelihood parameter estimates are derived using the EM algorithm. Parameter recovery, classification assessment, and performance of some information criteria are investigated through a broad simulation design. An application to real data is finally presented, with the proposed model outperforming other well-established mixture-based approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cluster-weighted models (CWMs) are a flexible family of mixture models for fitting the joint distribution of a random vector composed of a response variable and a set of covariates. CWMs act as a convex combination of the products of the marginal distribution of the covariates and the conditional distribution of the response given the covariates. In this paper, we introduce a broad family of CWMs in which the component conditional distributions are assumed to belong to the exponential family and the covariates are allowed to be of mixed-type. Under the assumption of Gaussian covariates, sufficient conditions for model identifiability are provided. Moreover, maximum likelihood parameter estimates are derived using the EM algorithm. Parameter recovery, classification assessment, and performance of some information criteria are investigated through a broad simulation design. An application to real data is finally presented, with the proposed model outperforming other well-established mixture-based approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The dissimilarity index of Duncan and Duncan is widely used in a broad range of contexts to assess the overall extent of segregation in the allocation of two groups in two or more units. Its sensitivity to random allocation implies an upward bias with respect to the unknown amount of systematic segregation. In this article, following a multinomial framework based on the assumption that individuals allocate themselves independently and that unit sizes are not fixed, we provide (1) a mathematical proof of the nonnegativity of the bias, (2) an analytic way of obtaining the same results of a recent bootstrap-based bias correction but without using resampling, and (3) a new bias correction that outperforms, in terms of both bias and mean square error, those based on grouped jackknife, bootstrap, and double bootstrap. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In the context of mixture models with random covariates, this article presents the polynomial Gaussian cluster-weighted model (CWM). It extends the linear Gaussian CWM, for bivariate data, in a twofold way. First, it allows for possible nonlinear dependencies in the mixture components by considering a polynomial regression. Second, it is not restricted to be used for model-based clustering only being contextualized in the most general model-based classification framework. Maximum likelihood parameter estimates are derived using the EM algorithm and model selection is carried out using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the integrated completed likelihood (ICL). The article also investigates the conditions under which the posterior probabilities of component-membership from a polynomial Gaussian CWM coincide with those of other well-established mixture-models which are related to it. When applied to artificial and real data, the polynomial Gaussian CWM has shown to outperform the mixture of polynomial Gaussian regressions, which is its natural competitor in the class of mixture models with fixed covariates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is well known that non ignorable item non response may occur when the cause of the non response is the value of the latent variable of interest. In these cases, a refusal by a respondent to answer specific questions in a survey should be treated sometimes as a non ignorable item non response. The Rasch-Rasch model (RRM) is a new two-dimensional item response theory model for addressing non ignorable non response. This article demonstrates the use of the RRM on data from an Italian survey focused on assessment of healthcare workers’ knowledge about sudden infant death syndrome (that is, a context in which non response is presumed to be more likely among individuals with a low level of competence). We compare the performance of the RRM with other models within the Rasch model family that assume the unidimensionality of the latent trait. We conclude that this assumption should be considered unreliable for the data at hand, whereas the RRM provides a better fit of the data. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

In this article, we introduce a multiple testing procedure to assess a common covariance structure betweenkgroups. The new test allows for a choice among eight different patterns arising from the three-term eigen decomposition of the group covariances. It is based on the closed testing principle and adopts local likelihood ratio (LR) tests. The approach reveals richer information about the underlying data structure than classical methods, the most common one being only based on homo/heteroscedasticity. At the same time, it provides a more parsimonious parameterization, whenever the constrained model is suitable to describe the real data. The new inferential methodology is then applied to some well-known datasets chosen from the multivariate literature. Finally, simulation results are presented to investigate its performance in different situations representing gradual departures from homoscedasticity and to evaluate the reliability of using the asymptotic χ2to approximate the actual distribution of the local LR test statistics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the problem of estimating a density, with either a compact support or a support bounded at only one end, exploiting a general and natural form of a finite mixture of distributions. Due to the importance of the concept of multimodality in the mixture framework, unimodal beta and gamma densities are used as mixture components, leading to a flexible modeling approach. Accordingly, a mode-based parameterization of the components is provided. A partitional clustering method, named $$k$$-bumps, is also proposed; it is used as an ad hoc initialization strategy in the EM algorithm to obtain the maximum likelihood estimation of the mixture parameters. The performance of the $$k$$-bumps algorithm as an initialization tool, in comparison to other common initialization strategies, is evaluated through some simulation experiments. Finally, two real applications are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper introduces a two-dimensional Item Response Theory (IRT) model to deal with nonignorable nonresponses in tests with dichotomous items. One dimension provides information about the omitting behavior, while the other dimension is related to the person's "ability". The idea of embedding an IRT model for missingness into the measurement model is not new but, differently from the existing literature, the model presented in this paper belongs to the Rasch family of models. As a member of the exponential family, the model offers several advantages, such as existence of non trivial sufficient statistics and possibility of specific objective parameter estimation; feasibility of conditional inference; goodness of fit analysis via conditional likelihood ratio tests. Maximum likelihood estimation is discussed, and the applicability of the proposed model is illustrated by using a real data set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study examines the effect of two different techniques of bias reduction in the case of the fixed persons-fixed items formulation of the Rasch model. A first approach can be considered "corrective", because it consists simply in correcting ex-post the joint maximum likelihood estimates by a factor (m-1)/m, were m represents the number of items and/or persons. A second approach, which is an application of a quite general formula for reducing the maximum likelihood estimation bias, can be considered "preventive", because it arises from a modification of the score function. A comparative study of these two techniques was done using simulated data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Epidemiological studies have shown a higher incidence of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) in men than women. Interestingly, there are clear gender differences in disease onset and progression in rodent models of familial ALS overexpressing mutated human superoxide dismutase-1 (SOD1-G93A). In the present study we sought to determine whether the alterations of serum steroid levels by gonadectomy or chronic treatment of neuroprotective neurosteroids can modulate disease onset and progression in a rat model of ALS (SOD1-G93A transgenic rats). Presymptomatic SOD1-G93A rats were gonadectomized or treated with a neurosteroid dehydroepiandrosterone (DHEA) using silastic tubing implants. Disease onset and progression of the animals were determined by the routine analyses of locomotor testing using the Basso-Beattie-Bresnahan (BBB) score. Although sexual dimorphism was observed in intact and gonadectomized SOD1-G93A rats, there was no significant effect of gonadectomy on disease onset and progression. DHEA treatment did not alter disease progression or survival in SOD1-G93A rats. Our results indicate that gonadal steroids or neurosteroids are not one of the possible modulators for the occurrence or disease progression in a rat model of ALS. Further analysis will be necessary to understand how sexual dimorphism is involved in ALS disease progression. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the serial dependences between the observed time series and the lagged series, taken into account one-by-one, are graphically analysed by what we have chosen to call the 'autodependogram'. This tool is a sort of natural nonlinear counterpart of the well-known autocorrelogram used in the linear context. The autodependogram is based on the simple idea of using, instead of autocorrelations at varying time lags, the χ2-test statistics applied to convenient contingency tables. The efficacy of this graphical device is confirmed by real and artificial time series and by simulations from certain classes of well-known models, characterized by randomness and by different kinds of linear and nonlinear dependences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The search of appropriate models for describing the currency return distribution is one of the main interests not only in finance, but also in the more recent trans-disciplinary econophysics research field. Such a search is recently focusing on cryptocurrencies, due to their proliferation. Although there is no agreement of what theoretical models are the most appropriate, there is a general consensus that the cryptocurrency return distribution is highly-peaked and heavy-tailed, with a large excess kurtosis and the tail distribution decreases as the inverse cubic power-law. With these requirements, the Laplace distribution can be considered as a valid candidate model. However, there are two limitations to be taken into account: 1) the Laplace tail distribution does not decrease as the inverse cubic power-law and 2) the excess kurtosis is fixed at 3. To make the tailedness of the Laplace distribution more flexible, still maintaining its peculiar symmetric shape, we introduce the Laplace scale mixture (LSM) family of distributions. Each member of the family is obtained by dividing the scale parameter of the conditional Laplace distribution by a convenient mixing random variable taking values on all or part of the positive real line and whose distribution depends on a parameter vector θ governing the tail behavior of the resulting LSM. For illustrative purposes, we consider different mixing distributions; they give rise to LSMs having a closed-form probability density function where the Laplace distribution is obtained as a special case under a convenient choice of θ. We describe an EM algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the parameters for all the considered LSMs. Interestingly, we show how the influence of observations associated with large scaled absolute distances is reduced (downweighted), with respect to the nested Laplace distribution, in the estimation phase. We fit these models to the returns of 4 cryptocurrencies, considering several classical symmetric distributions for comparison. The analysis shows how the proposed models represent a valid alternative to the considered competitors in terms of AIC, BIC and likelihood-ratio tests, but also in reproducing the larger empirical excess kurtosis and in resembling the empirical inverse cubic power-law decrease of the tail distribution. • A way to make more flexible the tail-behavior of the Laplace distribution. • The influence of observations with large scaled absolute distances is reduced. • Good models to describe the stylized facts of the cryptocurrency return distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Analysis of matrix-variate data is becoming ever more prevalent in the literature, especially in the area of clustering and classification. Real data, including real matrix-variate data, are often contaminated by potential outlying observations. Their detection, as well as the development of models insensitive to their presence, is particularly important for this type of data because of the practical issues concerning their effective visualization. Herein, the matrix-variate contaminated normal distribution is discussed and then utilized in the mixture model paradigm for clustering. One key advantage of the proposed model is the ability to automatically detect potential outlying matrices by computing their a posteriori probability of being typical or atypical. Such detection is currently unavailable using existing matrix-variate methods. An expectation conditional maximization algorithm is used for parameter estimation, and both simulated and real data are used for illustration. Supplementary files for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We propose a robust method for simultaneous unsupervised classification and dimensionality reduction for high-dimensional data. • The proposed approach is effective for identifying mild outliers in high-dimensional unsupervised classification problems. • The proportion of mild outliers is learned and so does not need to be pre-specified. The contaminated Gaussian distribution represents a simple heavy-tailed elliptical generalization of the Gaussian distribution; unlike the often-considered t -distribution, it also allows for automatic detection of mild outlying or "bad" points in the same way that observations are typically assigned to the groups in the finite mixture model context. Starting from this distribution, we propose the contaminated factor analysis model as a method for dimensionality reduction and detection of bad points in higher dimensions. A mixture of contaminated Gaussian factor analyzers (MCGFA) model follows therefrom, and extends the recently proposed mixture of contaminated Gaussian distributions to high-dimensional data. We introduce a family of 32 parsimonious models formed by introducing constraints on the covariance and contamination structures of the general MCGFA model. We outline a variant of the expectation-maximization algorithm for parameter estimation. Various implementation issues are discussed, and the novel family of models is compared to well-established approaches on both simulated and real data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Finite mixtures of regressions with fixed covariates are a commonly used model-based clustering methodology to deal with regression data. However, they assume assignment independence, i.e., the allocation of data points to the clusters is made independently of the distribution of the covariates. To take into account the latter aspect, finite mixtures of regressions with random covariates, also known as cluster-weighted models (CWMs), have been proposed in the univariate and multivariate literature. In this paper, the CWM is extended to matrix data, e.g., those data where a set of variables are simultaneously observed at different time points or locations. Specifically, the cluster-specific marginal distribution of the covariates and the cluster-specific conditional distribution of the responses given the covariates are assumed to be matrix normal. Maximum likelihood parameter estimates are derived using an expectation-conditional maximization algorithm. Parameter recovery, classification assessment, and the capability of the Bayesian information criterion to detect the underlying groups are investigated using simulated data. Finally, two real data applications concerning educational indicators and the Italian non-life insurance market are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Gaussian hidden Markov model (HMM) is widely considered for the analysis of heterogenous continuous multivariate longitudinal data. To robustify this approach with respect to possible elliptical heavy-tailed departures from normality, due to the presence of outliers, spurious points, or noise (collectively referred to asbad pointsherein), the contaminated Gaussian HMM is here introduced. The contaminated Gaussian distribution represents an elliptical generalization of the Gaussian distribution and allows for automatic detection of bad points in the same natural way as observations are typically assigned to the latent states in the HMM context. Once the model is fitted, each observation has a posterior probability of belonging to a particular state and, inside each state, of being a bad point or not. In addition to the parameters of the classical Gaussian HMM, for each state we have two more parameters, both with a specific and useful interpretation: one controls the proportion of bad points and one specifies their degree of atypicality. A sufficient condition for the identifiability of the model is given, an expectation-conditional maximization algorithm is outlined for parameter estimation and various operational issues are discussed. Using a large-scale simulation study, but also an illustrative artificial dataset, we demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model in comparison with HMMs of different elliptical distributions, and we also evaluate the performance of some well-known information criteria in selecting the true number of latent states. The model is finally used to fit data on criminal activities in Italian provinces. Supplementary materials for this article are available online [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While latent class (LC) models with distal outcomes are becoming popular in literature as a consequence of the increasing use of stepwise estimators, these models still suffer from severe shortcomings. Namely, using the currently available stepwise estimators the direct effects between the distal outcome and the indicators of the LC membership cannot be easily modeled. At the same time using the traditional Full Information Maximum Likelihood (FIML) approach the LC solution can become dominated by the distal outcome, especially when model misspecifications occur, and the relationship between the distal outcome and LC is strong. In this paper, we consider a more general formulation, typical in cluster-weighted models, which embeds both the latent class regression and the distal outcome models. This allows us to test simultaneously both whether the distribution of the distal outcome differs across classes, and whether there are significant direct effects of the distal outcome on the indicators, by including most of the information about the distal outcome – latent variable relationship. We propose a two-step estimator for these models that makes it possible to separate the estimation of the measurement and structural model, that is much desired for distal outcome models, while keeping the possibility of modeling direct effects open. We show the advantages of the proposed modeling approach through a simulation study and an empirical application on assets ownership of Italian households. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Portmanteau tests are typically used to test serial independence even if, by construction, they are generally powerful only in presence of pairwise dependence between lagged variables. In this article, we present a simple statistic defining a new serial independence test, which is able to detect more general forms of dependence. In particular, differently from the Portmanteau tests, the resulting test is powerful also under a dependent process characterized by pairwise independence. A diagram, based on p-values from the proposed test, is introduced to investigate serial dependence. Finally, the effectiveness of the proposal is evaluated in a simulation study and with an application on financial data. Both show that the new test, used in synergy with the existing ones, helps in the identification of the true data-generating process. Supplementary materials for this article are available online. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cluster-weighted models (CWMs) extend finite mixtures of regressions (FMRs) in order to allow the distribution of covariates to contribute to the clustering process. In this article, we introduce 24 matrix-variate CWMs which are obtained by allowing both the responses and covariates in each cluster to be modelled by one of four existing skewed matrix-variate distributions or the matrix-variate normal distribution. Endowed with greater flexibility, our matrix-variate CWMs are able to handle this kind of data in a more suitable manner. As a by-product, the four skewed matrix-variate FMRs are also introduced. Maximum likelihood parameter estimates are derived using an expectation-conditional maximization algorithm. Parameter recovery, classification assessment, and the capability of the Bayesian information criterion to detect the underlying groups are investigated using simulated data. Lastly, our matrix-variate CWMs, along with the matrix-variate normal CWM and matrix-variate FMRs, are applied to two real datasets for illustrative purposes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We propose a general approach to detect measurement non-invariance in latent Markov models for longitudinal data. We define different notions of differential item functioning in the context of panel data. We then present a model selection approach based on the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) to choose both the number of latent states and the measurement structure. We show the practical relevance by means of an extensive simulation study, and illustrate its use on two real–data examples from the social sciences. Our results indicate that BIC is able to select the correct measurement equivalence structure more than 95% of times. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article enlarges the covariance configurations, on which the classical linear discriminant analysis is based, by considering the four models arising from the spectral decomposition when eigenvalues and/or eigenvectors matrices are allowed to vary or not between groups. As in the classical approach, the assessment of these configurations is accomplished via a test on the training set. The discrimination rule is then built upon the configuration provided by the test, considering or not the unlabeled data. Numerical experiments, on simulated and real data, have been performed to evaluate the gain of our proposal with respect to the linear discriminant analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]