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Simulating Population (Pop.) III star formation in mini-halos in a large cosmological simulation is an extremely challenging task but it is crucial to estimate its impact on the 21cm power spectrum. In this work, we develop a framework within the semi-analytical code meraxes to estimate the radiative backgrounds from Pop. III stars needed for the computation of the 21cm signal. We computed the 21cm global signal and power spectrum for different Pop. III models varying star formation efficiency, initial mass function (IMF) and specific X-ray luminosity per unit of star formation (LX/SFR). In all the models considered, we find Pop. III stars have little to no impact on the reionization history but significantly affect the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM) due to the strong injection of X-ray photons from their remnants that heat the neutral IGM at $z \geq$ 15. This is reflected not only on the 21cm sky-averaged global signal during the Cosmic Dawn but also on the 21cm power spectrum at $z \leq$ 10 where models with strong Pop. III X-ray emission have larger power than models with no or mild Pop. III X-ray emission. We estimate observational uncertainties on the power spectrum using 21cmsense and find that models where Pop. III stars have a stronger X-ray emission than Pop. II are distinguishable from models with no or mild Pop. III X-ray emission with 1000 hours observations of the upcoming SKA1-low., Comment: Submitted to MNRAS. 14 pages, 17 figures, 1 appendix. Comments are welcome!

The Lyman alpha (Lya) forest in the spectra of z>5 quasars provides a powerful probe of the late stages of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). With the recent advent of exquisite datasets such as XQR-30, many models have struggled to reproduce the observed large-scale fluctuations in the Lya opacity. Here we introduce a Bayesian analysis framework that forward-models large-scale lightcones of IGM properties, and accounts for unresolved sub-structure in the Lya opacity by calibrating to higher-resolution hydrodynamic simulations. Our models directly connect physically-intuitive galaxy properties with the corresponding IGM evolution, without having to tune "effective" parameters or calibrate out the mean transmission. The forest data, in combination with UV luminosity functions and the CMB optical depth, are able to constrain global IGM properties at percent level precision in our fiducial model. Unlike many other works, we recover the forest observations without evoking a rapid drop in the ionizing emissivity from z~7 to 5.5, which we attribute to our sub-grid model for recombinations. In this fiducial model, reionization ends at $z=5.44\pm0.02$ and the EoR mid-point is at $z=7.7\pm0.1$. The ionizing escape fraction increases towards faint galaxies, showing a mild redshift evolution at fixed UV magnitude, Muv. Half of the ionizing photons are provided by galaxies fainter than Muv~-12, well below direct detection limits of optical/NIR instruments including JWST. We also show results from an alternative galaxy model that does not allow for a redshift evolution in the ionizing escape fraction. Despite being decisively disfavored by the Bayesian evidence, the posterior of this model is in qualitative agreement with that from our fiducial model. We caution however that our conclusions regarding the early stages of the EoR and which sources reionized the Universe are more model-dependent., Comment: 21 pages, 12 figures, 3 tables (submitted to PASA)

The precise characterization and mitigation of systematic effects is one of the biggest roadblocks impeding the detection of the fluctuations of cosmological 21cm signals. Missing data in radio cosmological experiments, often due to radio frequency interference (RFI), poses a particular challenge to power spectrum analysis as it could lead to the ringing of bright foreground modes in Fourier space, heavily contaminating the cosmological signals. Here we show that the problem of missing data becomes even more arduous in the presence of systematic effects. Using a realistic numerical simulation, we demonstrate that partially flagged data combined with systematic effects can introduce significant foreground ringing. We show that such an effect can be mitigated through inpainting the missing data. We present a rigorous statistical framework that incorporates the process of inpainting missing data into a quadratic estimator of the 21cm power spectrum. Under this framework, the uncertainties associated with our inpainting method and its impact on power spectrum statistics can be understood. These results are applied to the latest Phase II observations taken by the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array, forming a crucial component in power spectrum analyses as we move toward detecting 21cm signals in the ever more noisy RFI environment., Comment: 25 pages, 11 figures; Replaced to match accepted ApJ version. New version contains small editorial changes throughout in response to referee comments, no changes to results

In 2018 the EDGES experiment claimed the first detection of the global cosmic 21cm signal, which featured an absorption trough centered around $z \sim 17$ with a depth of approximately -500mK. This amplitude is deeper than the standard prediction (in which the radio background is determined by the cosmic microwave background) by a factor of two and potentially hints at the existence of a radio background excess. While this result was obtained by fitting the data with a phenomenological flattened-Gaussian shape for the cosmological signal, here we develop a physical model for the inhomogeneous radio background sourced by the first galaxies hosting population III stars. Star formation in these galaxies is quenched at lower redshifts due to various feedback mechanisms, so they serve as a natural candidate for the excess radio background hinted by EDGES, without violating present day measurements by ARCADE2. We forward-model the EDGES sky temperature data, jointly sampling our physical model for the cosmic signal, a foreground model, and residual calibration errors. We compare the Bayesian evidences obtained by varying the complexity and prior ranges for the systematics. We find that the data is best explained by a model with seven log-polynomial foreground terms, and that it requires calibration residuals. Interestingly, the presence of a cosmic 21cm signal with a non-standard depth is decisively disfavored. This is contrary to previous EDGES analysis in the context of extra radio background models, serving as a caution against using a ''pseudo-likelihood'' built on a model (flattened Gaussian) that is different from the one being used for inference. We make our simulation code and associated emulator publicly-available., Comment: 17 pages, 9 figures, 1 table, version submitted to A&A

Ionized bubble sizes during reionization trace physical properties of the first galaxies. JWST's ability to spectroscopically confirm and measure Lyman-alpha (Ly$\alpha$) emission in sub-L* galaxies opens the door to mapping ionized bubbles in 3D. However, existing Lya-based bubble measurement strategies rely on constraints from single galaxies, which are limited by the large variability in intrinsic Ly$\alpha$ emission. As a first step, we present two bubble size estimation methods using Lya spectroscopy of ensembles of galaxies, enabling us to map ionized structures and marginalize over Ly$\alpha$ emission variability. We test our methods using Gpc-scale reionization simulations of the intergalactic medium (IGM). To map bubbles in the plane of the sky, we develop an edge detection method based on the asymmetry of Ly$\alpha$ transmission as a function of spatial position. To map bubbles along the line-of-sight, we develop an algorithm using the tight relation between Ly$\alpha$ transmission and the line-of-sight distance from galaxies to the nearest neutral IGM patch. Both methods can robustly recover bubbles with radius $\gtrsim$10 comoving Mpc, sufficient for mapping bubbles even in the early phases of reionization, when the IGM is $\sim70-90\%$ neutral. These methods require $\gtrsim$0.002-0.004 galaxies/cMpc$^3$, a $5\sigma$ Ly$\alpha$ equivalent width upper limit of $\lesssim$30\r{A} for the faintest targets, and redshift precision $\Delta z \lesssim 0.015$, feasible with JWST spectroscopy. Shallower observations will provide robust lower limits on bubble sizes. Additional constraints on IGM transmission from Ly$\alpha$ escape fractions and line profiles will further refine these methods, paving the way to our first direct understanding of ionized bubble growth., Comment: 15 pages (+ 3 pages in Appendix), 17 figures, submitted to A&A

We investigate the detectability of Lyman-$\alpha$ (Ly$\alpha$) emission from galaxies at the onset of cosmic reionization, aiming to understand the conditions necessary for detecting high-redshift sources like JADES-GS-z13-1-LA at $z=13$. By integrating galaxy formation models with detailed intergalactic medium (IGM) reionization simulations, we construct high-redshift galaxy catalogs to model intrinsic Ly$\alpha$ profiles and assess their transmission through the IGM. For a galaxy with $M_{\rm UV}\sim -18.5$ like JADES-GS-z13-1-LA, our fiducial model predicts a Ly$\alpha$ transmission of ${\sim}13$% and there is a probability of observing Ly$\alpha$ emission with an equivalent width >40A of up to 10%. We also explore how variations in the UV ionizing escape fraction, dependent on host halo mass, impact Ly$\alpha$ detectability. Our findings reveal that reionization morphology significantly influences detection chances -- models where reionization is driven by low-mass galaxies can boost the detection probability to as much as 12%, while those driven by massive galaxies tend to reduce ionized regions around faint emitters, limiting their detectability. This study underscores the importance of reionization morphology in interpreting high-redshift Ly$\alpha$ observations., Comment: 7 pages, 3 figures, a theory follow up on 2408.16608, comments welcome

Recent quasar absorption line observations suggest that reionization may end as late as $z \approx 5.3$. As a means to search for large neutral hydrogen islands at $z<6$, we revisit long dark gaps in the Ly$\beta$ forest in VLT/X-Shooter and Keck/ESI quasar spectra. We stack the Ly$\alpha$ forest corresponding to both edges of these Ly$\beta$ dark gaps and identify a damping wing-like extended absorption profile. The average redshift of the stacked forest is $z=5.8$. By comparing these observations with reionization simulations, we infer that such a damping wing-like feature can be naturally explained if these gaps are at least partially created by neutral islands. Conversely, simulated dark gaps lacking neutral hydrogen struggle to replicate the observed damping wing features. Furthermore, this damping wing-like profile implies that the volume-averaged neutral hydrogen fraction must be $\langle x_{\rm HI} \rangle \geq 6.1 \pm 3.9\%$ at $z = 5.8$. Our results offer robust evidence that reionization extends below $z=6$., Comment: 8 pages, 5 figures, 1 table; accepted for publication in MNRAS Letters

The attenuation of Ly$\alpha$ photons by neutral hydrogen in the intergalactic medium (IGM) at $z\gtrsim5$ continues to be a powerful probe for studying the epoch of reionisation. Given a framework to estimate the intrinsic (true) Ly$\alpha$ emission of high-$z$ sources, one can infer the ionisation state of the IGM during reionisation. In this work, we use the enlarged XQR-30 sample of 42 high-resolution and high-SNR QSO spectra between $5.8\lesssim\,z\lesssim\,6.6$ obtained with VLT/X-Shooter to place constraints on the IGM neutral fraction. This is achieved using our existing Bayesian QSO reconstruction framework which accounts for uncertainties such as the: (i) posterior distribution of predicted intrinsic Ly$\alpha$ emission profiles (obtained via covariance matrix reconstruction of the Ly$\alpha$ and N V emission lines from unattenuated high-ionisation emission line profiles; C IV, Si IV + O IV] and C III]) and (ii) distribution of ionised regions within the IGM using synthetic damping wing profiles drawn from a $1.6^3$ Gpc$^3$ reionisation simulation. Following careful quality control, we used 23 of the 42 available QSOs to obtain constraints/limits on the IGM neutral fraction during the tail-end of reionisation. Our median and 68th percentile constraints on the IGM neutral fraction are: $0.20\substack{+0.14\\-0.12}$ and $0.29\substack{+0.14\\-0.13}$ at $z = 6.15$~and 6.35. Further, we also report 68th percentile upper-limits of $\bar{x}_{\mathrm{H\,{\scriptscriptstyle I}}} < 0.21$, 0.20, 0.21 and 0.18 at $z = 5.8, 5.95, 6.05$~and 6.55. These results imply reionisation is still ongoing at $5.8\lesssim\,z\lesssim\,6.55$, consistent with previous results from XQR-30 (dark fraction and Ly$\alpha$ forest) along with other observational probes considered in the literature., Comment: 21 pages, 9 figures and 2 tables. Accepted for publication in MNRAS

The detection of the 21-cm signal at $z\gtrsim6$ will reveal insights into the properties of the first galaxies responsible for driving reionisation. To extract this information, we perform parameter inference which requires embedding 3D simulations of the 21-cm signal within a Bayesian inference pipeline. Presently, when performing inference we must choose which sources of uncertainty to sample and which to hold fixed. Since the astrophysics of galaxies are much more uncertain than those of the underlying halo-mass function (HMF), we usually parameterise and model the former while fixing the latter. However, in doing so we may bias our inference of the properties of these first galaxies. In this work, we explore the consequences of assuming an incorrect choice of HMF and quantify the relative biases in our inferred astrophysical model parameters when considering the wrong HMF. We then relax this assumption by constructing a generalised five parameter model for the HMF and simultaneously recover these parameters along with our underlying astrophysical model. For this analysis, we use 21cmFAST and perform Simulation-Based Inference by applying marginal neural ratio estimation to learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio using Swyft. Using a mock 1000 hour observation of the 21-cm power spectrum from the forthcoming Square Kilometre Array, conservatively assuming foreground wedge avoidance, we find assuming the incorrect HMF can bias the recovered astrophysical parameters by up to $\sim3-4\sigma$ even when including independent information from observed luminosity functions. When considering our generalised HMF model, we recover constraints on our astrophysical parameters with a factor of $\sim2-4$ larger marginalised uncertainties. Importantly, these constraints are unbiased, agnostic to the underlying HMF and therefore more conservative., Comment: 27 pages, 14 figures, 3 tables and 3 appendices. Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome

Enlightening our understanding of the first galaxies responsible for driving reionisation requires detecting the 21-cm signal from neutral hydrogen. Interpreting the wealth of information embedded in this signal requires Bayesian inference. Parameter inference from the 21-cm signal is primarily restricted to the spherically averaged power spectrum (1D PS) owing to its relatively straightforward derivation of an analytic likelihood function enabling traditional Monte-Carlo Markov-Chain (MCMC) approaches. However, in recent years, simulation-based inference (SBI) has become feasible which removes the necessity of having an analytic likelihood, enabling more complex summary statistics of the 21-cm signal to be used for Bayesian inference. In this work, we use SBI, specifically marginal neural ratio estimation to learn the likelihood-to-evidence ratio with Swyft, to explore parameter inference using the cylindrically averaged 2D PS. Since the 21-cm signal is anisotropic, the 2D PS should yield more constraining information compared to the 1D PS which isotropically averages the signal. For this, we consider a mock 1000 hr observation of the 21-cm signal using the SKA and compare the performance of the 2D PS relative to the 1D PS. Additionally, we explore two separate foreground mitigation strategies, perfect foreground removal and wedge avoidance. We find the 2D PS outperforms the 1D PS by improving the marginalised uncertainties on individual astrophysical parameters by up to $\sim30-40$ per cent irrespective of the foreground mitigation strategy. Primarily, these improvements stem from how the 2D PS distinguishes between the transverse, $k_{\perp}$, and redshift dependent, $k_{\parallel}$ information which enables greater sensitivity to the complex reionisation morphology., Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures and 1 table. Submitted to MNRAS, comments welcome

Radio interferometers targeting the 21cm brightness temperature fluctuations at high redshift are subject to systematic effects that operate over a range of different timescales. These can be isolated by designing appropriate Fourier filters that operate in fringe-rate (FR) space, the Fourier pair of local sidereal time (LST). Applications of FR filtering include separating effects that are correlated with the rotating sky vs. those relative to the ground, down-weighting emission in the primary beam sidelobes, and suppressing noise. FR filtering causes the noise contributions to the visibility data to become correlated in time however, making interpretation of subsequent averaging and error estimation steps more subtle. In this paper, we describe fringe rate filters that are implemented using discrete prolate spheroidal sequences, and designed for two different purposes -- beam sidelobe/horizon suppression (the `mainlobe' filter), and ground-locked systematics removal (the `notch' filter). We apply these to simulated data, and study how their properties affect visibilities and power spectra generated from the simulations. Included is an introduction to fringe-rate filtering and a demonstration of fringe-rate filters applied to simple situations to aid understanding., Comment: 21 pages, 18 figures, submitted to Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society

We implemented Population III (Pop. III) star formation in mini-halos within the MERAXES semi-analytic galaxy formation and reionisation model, run on top of a N-body simulation with $L = 10 h^{-1}$ cMpc with 2048$^3$ particles resolving all dark matter halos down to the mini-halos ($\sim 10^5 M_\odot$). Our modelling includes the chemical evolution of the IGM, with metals released through supernova-driven bubbles that expand according to the Sedov-Taylor model. We found that SN-driven metal bubbles are generally small, with radii typically of 150 ckpc at z = 6. Hence, the majority of the first galaxies are likely enriched by their own star formation. However, as reionization progresses, the feedback effects from the UV background become more pronounced, leading to a halt in star formation in low-mass galaxies, after which external chemical enrichment becomes more relevant. We explore the sensitivity of the star formation rate density and stellar mass functions on the unknown values of free parameters. We also discuss the observability of Pop. III dominated systems with JWST, finding that the inclusion of Pop. III galaxies can have a significant effect on the total UV luminosity function at z = 12 - 16. Our results support the idea that the excess of bright galaxies detected with JWST might be explained by the presence of bright top-heavy Pop. III dominated galaxies without requiring an increased star formation efficiency., Comment: 19 Pages, 22 Figures, 2 tables, 2 Appendices - Accepted for publication in MNRAS (14th of Feb. 2024) - Meraxes is now publicly available!

This paper presents the design and deployment of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) phase II system. HERA is designed as a staged experiment targeting 21 cm emission measurements of the Epoch of Reionization. First results from the phase I array are published as of early 2022, and deployment of the phase II system is nearing completion. We describe the design of the phase II system and discuss progress on commissioning and future upgrades. As HERA is a designated Square Kilometer Array (SKA) pathfinder instrument, we also show a number of "case studies" that investigate systematics seen while commissioning the phase II system, which may be of use in the design and operation of future arrays. Common pathologies are likely to manifest in similar ways across instruments, and many of these sources of contamination can be mitigated once the source is identified.

Detection of the faint 21 cm line emission from the Cosmic Dawn and Epoch of Reionisation will require not only exquisite control over instrumental calibration and systematics to achieve the necessary dynamic range of observations but also validation of analysis techniques to demonstrate their statistical properties and signal loss characteristics. A key ingredient in achieving this is the ability to perform high-fidelity simulations of the kinds of data that are produced by the large, many-element, radio interferometric arrays that have been purpose-built for these studies. The large scale of these arrays presents a computational challenge, as one must simulate a detailed sky and instrumental model across many hundreds of frequency channels, thousands of time samples, and tens of thousands of baselines for arrays with hundreds of antennas. In this paper, we present a fast matrix-based method for simulating radio interferometric measurements (visibilities) at the necessary scale. We achieve this through judicious use of primary beam interpolation, fast approximations for coordinate transforms, and a vectorised outer product to expand per-antenna quantities to per-baseline visibilities, coupled with standard parallelisation techniques. We validate the results of this method, implemented in the publicly-available matvis code, against a high-precision reference simulator, and explore its computational scaling on a variety of problems., Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, accepted to RAS Techniques and Instruments, matvis is publicly available at https://github.com/HERA-Team/matvis

The variations in Ly$\alpha$ forest opacity observed at $z>5.3$ between lines of sight to different background quasars are too strong to be caused by fluctuations in the density field alone. The leading hypothesis for the cause of this excess variance is a late, ongoing reionization process at redshifts below six. Another model proposes strong ionizing background fluctuations coupled to a short, spatially varying mean free path of ionizing photons, without explicitly invoking incomplete reionization. With recent observations suggesting a short mean free path at $z\sim6$, and a dramatic improvement in $z>5$ Ly$\alpha$ forest data quality, we revisit this latter possibility. Here we apply the likelihood-free inference technique of approximate Bayesian computation to jointly constrain the hydrogen photoionization rate $\Gamma_{\rm HI}$ and the mean free path of ionizing photons $\lambda_{\rm mfp}$ from the effective optical depth distributions at $z=5.0$-$6.1$ from XQR-30. We find that the observations are well-described by fluctuating mean free path models with average mean free paths that are consistent with the steep trend implied by independent measurements at $z\sim5$-$6$, with a concomitant rapid evolution of the photoionization rate., Comment: 23 pages, 13 figures, resubmitted to ApJ after referee's comments

Recent years have witnessed rapid progress in observations of the Epoch of Reionization (EoR). These have enabled high-dimensional inference of galaxy and intergalactic medium (IGM) properties during the first billion years of our Universe. However, even using efficient, semi-numerical simulations, traditional inference approaches that compute 3D lightcones on-the-fly can take $10^5$ core hours. Here we present 21cmEMU: an emulator of several summary observables from the popular 21cmFAST simulation code. 21cmEMU takes as input nine parameters characterizing EoR galaxies, and outputs the following summary statistics: (i) the IGM mean neutral fraction; (ii) the 21-cm power spectrum; (iii) the mean 21-cm spin temperature; (iv) the sky-averaged (global) 21-cm signal; (v) the ultraviolet (UV) luminosity functions (LFs); and (vi) the Thomson scattering optical depth to the cosmic microwave background (CMB). All observables are predicted with sub-percent median accuracy, with a reduction of the computational cost by a factor of over 10$^4$. After validating inference results, we showcase a few applications, including: (i) quantifying the relative constraining power of different observational datasets; (ii) seeing how recent claims of a late EoR impact previous inferences; and (iii) forecasting upcoming constraints from the sixth observing season of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) telescope. 21cmEMU is publicly-available, and is included as an alternative simulator in the public 21CMMC sampler., Comment: 21 pages, 13 figures, submitted to MNRAS

Recent JWST observations have revealed an unexpected abundance of massive galaxy candidates in the early Universe, extending further in redshift and to lower luminosity than what had previously been found by sub-millimeter surveys. These JWST candidates have been interpreted as challenging the $\Lambda$CDM cosmology, but, so far, they have mostly relied only on rest-frame ultraviolet data and lacked spectroscopic confirmation of their redshifts. Here we report a systematic study of 36 massive dust-obscured galaxies with spectroscopic redshifts between $z_{\rm spec}=5-9$ from the JWST FRESCO survey. We find no tension with the $\Lambda$CDM model in our sample. However, three ultra-massive galaxies (log$M_{\star}/M_{\odot}$ $\gtrsim11.0$) require an exceptional fraction of 50% of baryons converted into stars -- two to three times higher than even the most efficient galaxies at later epochs. The contribution from an active nucleus is unlikely because of their extended emission. Ultra-massive galaxies account for as much as 17% of the total cosmic star formation rate density at $z\sim5-6$., Comment: Nature in press. Updated to the accepted version. 24 pages, 4 main figures, 7 supplementary figures, 3 supplementary tables

The redshifted 21cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn is expected to provide unprecedented insights into early Universe astrophysics and cosmology. Here we explore how dark matter can heat the intergalactic medium before the first galaxies, leaving a distinctive imprint in the 21cm power spectrum. We provide the first dedicated Fisher matrix forecasts on the sensitivity of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) telescope to dark matter decays. We show that with 1000 hours of observation, HERA has the potential to improve current cosmological constraints on the dark matter decay lifetime by up to three orders of magnitude. Even in extreme scenarios with strong X-ray emission from early-forming, metal-free galaxies, the bounds on the decay lifetime would be improved by up to two orders of magnitude. Overall, HERA shall improve on existing limits for dark matter masses below $2$ GeV$/c^2$ for decays into $e^+e^-$ and below few MeV$/c^2$ for decays into photons., Comment: 34 pages, 12 figures. v2: published version with additional references and improved figures

The mean free path of ionizing photons, $\lambda_{\rm mfp}$, is a critical parameter for modeling the intergalactic medium (IGM) both during and after reionization. We present direct measurements of $\lambda_{\rm mfp}$ from QSO spectra over the redshift range $5

The patchy kinetic Sunyaev-Zel'dovich (kSZ) signal is an integral probe of the timing and morphology of the epoch of reionization (EoR). Recent observations have claimed a low signal-to-noise (S/N) measurement, with a dramatic increase in S/N expected in the near future. In this work, we quantify what we can learn about the EoR from the kSZ signal. We perform Bayesian inference by sampling galaxy properties and using forward-models of the kSZ as well as other EoR and galaxy observations in the likelihood. Including the recent kSZ measurement obtained by the South Pole Telescope ($\mathcal{D}_{3000}^{\rm{pkSZ}} = 1.1_{-0.7}^{+1.1} \mu$K$^2$) shifts the posterior distribution in favor of faster and later reionization models, resulting in lower values of the optical depth to the CMB: $\tau_e = 0.052_{-0.008}^{+0.009}$ with a 68$\%$ confidence interval (C.I.). The combined EoR and UV luminosity function observations also imply a typical ionizing escape fraction of $0.04_{-0.03}^{+0.05}$ (95$\%$ C.I.), without a strong dependence on halo mass. We show how the patchy kSZ power from our posterior depends on the commonly-used parameters of reionization. For a given midpoint and duration, the EoR morphology only has a few percent impact on the patchy kSZ power in our posterior. However, a physical model is needed to obtain tight constraints from the current low S/N patchy kSZ measurement, as it allows us to take advantage of complimentary high-$z$ observations. Future high S/N detections of the patchy kSZ should decrease the current uncertainties on the timing of the EoR by factors of $\sim$2 - 3., Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, accepted to MNRAS (MNRAS, 526, 3170)

Using a semi-analytic galaxy-formation model, we study analogues of 8 recently discovered JWST galaxies at $z>{\sim}12$. We select analogues from a cosmological simulation with a $(311{\rm cMpc})^3$ volume and an effective particle number of $10^{12}$ enabling resolution of every atomic-cooling galaxy at $z{\le}20$. We vary model parameters to reproduce the observed UV luminosity function at $5{<}z{<}13$, aiming for a statistically representative high-redshift galaxy mock catalogue. Using the forward-modelled JWST photometry, we identify analogues from this catalogue and study their properties as well as possible evolutionary paths and local environments. We find faint JWST galaxies ($M_{\rm UV}>{\sim}-19.5$) to remain consistent with standard galaxy-formation model and that our fiducial catalogue includes large samples of their analogues. The properties of these analogues broadly agree with conventional SED fitting results, except for having systematically lower redshifts due to the evolving UV luminosity function, and for having higher specific star formation rates as a result of burstier histories in our model. On the other hand, only a handful of bright galaxy analogues can be identified for the observed $z{\sim}12$ galaxies. Moreover, in order to reproduce the $z>{\sim}16$ JWST galaxy candidates, boosted star-forming efficiencies and reduced feedback regulation are necessary relative to models of lower-redshift populations. This suggests star formation in the first galaxies could differ significantly from their lower-redshift counterparts. We also find that these candidates are subject to low-redshift contamination, which is present in our fiducial results as both the dusty or quiescent galaxies at $z{\sim}5$., Comment: updated with a couple of references and some typos fixed. 18 pages, 11 figures, submitted to MNRAS, comments welcomed

Constraining when and how reionisation began is pivotal for understanding when the first galaxies formed. Lyman-alpha (Ly$\alpha$) emission from galaxies is currently our most promising probe of these early stages. At z>7 the majority of galaxies detected with Ly$\alpha$ are in candidate overdensities. Here we quantify the probability of these galaxies residing in large ionised bubbles. We create (1.6 Gpc)$^3$ reionising intergalactic medium (IGM) simulations, providing sufficient volume to robustly measure bubble size distributions around UV-bright galaxies and rare overdensities. We find $M_{\rm UV} \lesssim -16$ galaxies and overdensities are $\gtrsim$10-1000x more likely to trace ionised bubbles compared to randomly selected positions. The brightest galaxies and strongest overdensities have bubble size distributions with highest characteristic size and least scatter. We compare two models: gradual reionisation driven by numerous UV-faint galaxies versus more rapid reionisation by rarer brighter galaxies, producing larger bubbles at fixed neutral fraction. We demonstrate that recently observed z~7 overdensities are highly likely to trace large ionised bubbles, corroborated by their high Ly$\alpha$ detection rates. However, the z~8.7 association of Ly$\alpha$ emitters in EGS and GN-z11, with Ly$\alpha$ at z=10.6, are unlikely to trace large bubbles in our fiducial model -- 11% and 7% probability of >1 proper Mpc bubbles, respectively. Ly$\alpha$ detections at such high redshifts could be explained by: a less neutral IGM than previously expected; larger ionised regions at fixed neutral fraction; or if intrinsic Ly$\alpha$ flux is unusually strong in these galaxies. We discuss how to test these scenarios with JWST and the prospects for using upcoming wide-area surveys to distinguish between reionisation models., Comment: 15 pages (+ 3 pages in Appendix), 13 figures, submitted to MNRAS

The fraction of ionizing photons that escape their host galaxies to ionize hydrogen in the inter-galactic medium (IGM) is a critical parameter in analyses of the reionization era. In this paper we use the Meraxes semi-analytic galaxy formation model to infer the mean ionizing photon escape fraction and its dependence on galaxy properties through joint modelling of the observed high redshift galaxy population and existing constraints on the reionization history. Using a Bayesian framework, and under the assumption that escape fraction is primarily related to halo mass, we find that the joint constraints of the UV luminosity function, CMB optical depth, and the Ly$\alpha$ forest require an escape fraction of $(18\pm5)\%$ for galaxies within haloes of $M\lesssim10^{9}$M$_\odot$ and $(5\pm2)\%$ for more massive haloes. In terms of galaxy properties, this transition in escape fraction occurs at stellar masses of $M_\star\sim10^7$M$_\odot$, nearly independent of redshift. As a function of redshift, reionization is dominated by the smaller $M_\star\lesssim10^7$M$_\odot$ galaxies with high escape fractions at $z\gtrsim6$ and by the larger $M_\star\gtrsim10^7$M$_\odot$ galaxies with lower escape fractions at $z\lesssim6$. Galaxies with star formation rates of $10^{-2.5}$M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$ to $10^{-1.5}$M$_\odot$yr$^{-1}$ provide the dominant source of ionizing photons throughout reionization. Our results are consistent with recent direct measurements of a $\sim5\%$ escape fraction from massive galaxies at the end of reionization and support the picture of low mass galaxies being the dominant sources of ionizing photons during reionization., Comment: Updated to match accepted version for publication in MNRAS. Includes two new figures showing model predictions and related discussion

We predict the 21-cm global signal and power spectra during the Epoch of Reionisation using the MERAXES semi-analytic galaxy formation and reionisation model, updated to include X-ray heating and thermal evolution of the intergalactic medium. Studying the formation and evolution of galaxies together with the reionisation of cosmic hydrogen using semi-analytic models (such as MERAXES) requires N-body simulations within large volumes and high mass resolutions. For this, we use a simulation of side-length $210~h^{-1}$ Mpc with $4320^3$ particles resolving dark matter haloes to masses of $5\times10^8~h^{-1}~M_\odot$. To reach the mass resolution of atomically cooled galaxies, thought to be the dominant population contributing to reionisation, at $z=20$ of $\sim 2\times10^7~h^{-1}~M_\odot$, we augment this simulation using the DARKFOREST Monte-Carlo merger tree algorithm (achieving an effective particle count of $\sim10^{12}$). Using this augmented simulation we explore the impact of mass resolution on the predicted reionisation history as well as the impact of X-ray heating on the 21-cm global signal and the 21-cm power spectra. We also explore the cosmic variance of 21-cm statistics within $70^{3}$ $h^{-3}$ Mpc$^3$ sub-volumes. We find that the midpoint of reionisation varies by $\Delta z\sim0.8$ and that the cosmic variance on the power spectrum is underestimated by a factor of $2-4$ at $k\sim 0.1-0.4$ Mpc$^{-1}$ due to the non-Gaussian nature of the 21-cm signal. To our knowledge, this work represents the first model of both reionisation and galaxy formation which resolves low-mass atomically cooled galaxies while simultaneously sampling sufficiently large scales necessary for exploring the effects of X-rays in the early Universe., Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures, revised and MNRAS accepted version

We report the most sensitive upper limits to date on the 21 cm epoch of reionization power spectrum using 94 nights of observing with Phase I of the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA). Using similar analysis techniques as in previously reported limits (HERA Collaboration 2022a), we find at 95% confidence that $\Delta^2(k = 0.34$ $h$ Mpc$^{-1}$) $\leq 457$ mK$^2$ at $z = 7.9$ and that $\Delta^2 (k = 0.36$ $h$ Mpc$^{-1}) \leq 3,496$ mK$^2$ at $z = 10.4$, an improvement by a factor of 2.1 and 2.6 respectively. These limits are mostly consistent with thermal noise over a wide range of $k$ after our data quality cuts, despite performing a relatively conservative analysis designed to minimize signal loss. Our results are validated with both statistical tests on the data and end-to-end pipeline simulations. We also report updated constraints on the astrophysics of reionization and the cosmic dawn. Using multiple independent modeling and inference techniques previously employed by HERA Collaboration (2022b), we find that the intergalactic medium must have been heated above the adiabatic cooling limit at least as early as $z = 10.4$, ruling out a broad set of so-called "cold reionization" scenarios. If this heating is due to high-mass X-ray binaries during the cosmic dawn, as is generally believed, our result's 99% credible interval excludes the local relationship between soft X-ray luminosity and star formation and thus requires heating driven by evolved low-metallicity stars., Comment: 57 pages, 37 figures. Updated to match the accepted ApJ version. Corresponding author: Joshua S. Dillon

We present a new investigation of the intergalactic medium (IGM) near reionization using dark gaps in the Lyman-$\beta$ (Ly$\beta$) forest. With its lower optical depth, Ly$\beta$ offers a potentially more sensitive probe to any remaining neutral gas compared to commonly used Ly$\alpha$ line. We identify dark gaps in the Ly$\beta$ forest using spectra of 42 QSOs at $z_{\rm em}>5.5$, including new data from the XQR-30 VLT Large Programme. Approximately $40\%$ of these QSO spectra exhibit dark gaps longer than $10h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$ at $z\simeq5.8$. By comparing the results to predictions from simulations, we find that the data are broadly consistent both with models where fluctuations in the Ly$\alpha$ forest are caused solely by ionizing ultraviolet background (UVB) fluctuations and with models that include large neutral hydrogen patches at $z<6$ due to a late end to reionization. Of particular interest is a very long ($L=28h^{-1}{\rm Mpc}$) and dark ($\tau_{\rm eff} \gtrsim 6$) gap persisting down to $z\simeq 5.5$ in the Ly$\beta$ forest of the $z_{\rm}=5.85$ QSO PSO J025$-$11. This gap may support late reionization models with a volume-weighted average neutral hydrogen fraction of $ \langle x_{\rm HI}\rangle \gtrsim 5\%$ by $z=5.6$. Finally, we infer constraints on $\langle x_{\rm HI}\rangle$ over $5.5 \lesssim z \lesssim 6.0$ based on the observed Ly$\beta$ dark gap length distribution and a conservative relationship between gap length and neutral fraction derived from simulations. We find $\langle x_{\rm HI}\rangle \leq 0.05$, 0.17, and 0.29 at $z\simeq 5.55$, 5.75, and 5.95, respectively. These constraints are consistent with models where reionization ends significantly later than $z = 6$., Comment: 17 pages, 13 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ. The Figure set and machine readable table are available at https://ydzhuastro.github.io/lyb.html

X-rays from High-Mass X-ray Binaries (HMXBs) are likely the main source of heating of the intergalactic medium (IGM) during Cosmic Dawn (CD), before the completion of reionization. This Epoch of Heating (EoH; $z\sim 10-15$) should soon be detected via the redshifted 21-cm line from neutral hydrogen, allowing us to indirectly study the properties of HMXBs in the unseen, first galaxies. Low-redshift observations, as well as theoretical models, imply that the integrated X-ray luminosity to star formation rate of HMXBs ($L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$) should increase in metal-poor environments, typical of early galaxies. Here we study the impact of the metallicity ($Z$) dependence of $L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$ during the EoH. For our fiducial models, galaxies with star formation rates of order $10^{-3} - 10^{-1}$ $M_\odot$ yr$^{-1}$ and metallicities of order $10^{-3} - 10^{-2}$ $Z_\odot$ are the dominant contributors to the X-ray background (XRB) during this period. Different $L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$-$Z$ relations result in factors of $\sim$ 3 differences in these ranges, as well as in the mean IGM temperature and the large-scale 21-cm power, at a given redshift. We compute mock 21-cm observations adopting as a baseline a 1000h integration with the upcoming Square Kilometer Array (SKA), for two different $L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$-$Z$ relations. We perform inference on these mock observations using the common simplification of a constant $L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$, finding that constant $L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$ models can recover the IGM evolution of the more complicated $L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$-$Z$ simulations only during the EoH. At $z<10$, where the typical galaxies are more polluted, constant $L_{\rm X}/{\rm SFR}$ models over-predict the XRB and its relative contribution to the early stages of the reionization.

The formation of the first galaxies during cosmic dawn and reionization (at redshifts $z=5-30$), triggered the last major phase transition of our universe, as hydrogen evolved from cold and neutral to hot and ionized. The 21-cm line of neutral hydrogen will soon allow us to map these cosmic milestones and study the galaxies that drove them. To aid in interpreting these observations, we upgrade the publicly available code {\tt 21cmFAST}. We introduce a new, flexible parametrization of the additive feedback from: an inhomogeneous, $H_2$-dissociating (Lyman-Werner; LW) background; and dark matter -- baryon relative velocities; which recovers results from recent, small-scale hydrodynamical simulations with both effects. We perform a large, "best-guess" simulation as the 2021 installment of the Evolution of 21-cm Structure (EOS) project. This improves the previous release with a galaxy model that reproduces the observed UV luminosity functions (UVLFs), and by including a population of molecular-cooling galaxies. The resulting 21-cm global signal and power spectrum are significantly weaker, primarily due to a more rapid evolution of the star-formation rate density required to match the UVLFs. Nevertheless, we forecast high signal-to-noise detections for both HERA and the SKA. We demonstrate how the stellar-to-halo mass relation of the unseen, first galaxies can be inferred from the 21-cm evolution. Finally, we show that the spatial modulation of X-ray heating due to relative velocities provides a unique acoustic signature that is detectable at $z \approx 10-15$ in our fiducial model. Ours are the first public simulations with joint inhomogeneous LW and relative-velocity feedback across the entire cosmic dawn and reionization., Comment: 23+3 pages, 23+3 figures. Matches accepted version. Simulation output available at https://www.dropbox.com/sh/dqh9r6wb0s68jfo/AACc9ZCqsN0SQ_JJN7GRVuqDa?dl=0

We present a new investigation of the intergalactic medium (IGM) near the end of reionization using "dark gaps" in the Lyman-alpha (Ly$\alpha$) forest. Using spectra of 55 QSOs at $z_{\rm em}>5.5$, including new data from the XQR-30 VLT Large Programme, we identify gaps in the Ly$\alpha$ forest where the transmission averaged over 1 comoving $h^{-1}\,{\rm Mpc}$ bins falls below 5%. Nine ultra-long ($L > 80~h^{-1}\,{\rm Mpc}$) dark gaps are identified at $z<6$. In addition, we quantify the fraction of QSO spectra exhibiting gaps longer than $30~h^{-1}\,{\rm Mpc}$, $F_{30}$, as a function of redshift. We measure $F_{30} \simeq 0.9$, 0.6, and 0.15 at $z = 6.0$, 5.8, and 5.6, respectively, with the last of these long dark gaps persisting down to $z \simeq 5.3$. Comparing our results with predictions from hydrodynamical simulations, we find that the data are consistent with models wherein reionization extends significantly below redshift six. Models wherein the IGM is essentially fully reionized that retain large-scale fluctuations in the ionizing UV background at $z \lesssim 6$ are also potentially consistent with the data. Overall, our results suggest that signature of reionization in the form of islands of neutral hydrogen and/or large-scale fluctuations in the ionizing background remain present in the IGM until at least $z \simeq 5.3$., Comment: 30 pages, 19 figures, 3 tables, accepted for publication in ApJ

Recently, the Hydrogen Epoch of Reionization Array (HERA) collaboration has produced the experiment's first upper limits on the power spectrum of 21-cm fluctuations at z~8 and 10. Here, we use several independent theoretical models to infer constraints on the intergalactic medium (IGM) and galaxies during the epoch of reionization (EoR) from these limits. We find that the IGM must have been heated above the adiabatic cooling threshold by z~8, independent of uncertainties about the IGM ionization state and the nature of the radio background. Combining HERA limits with galaxy and EoR observations constrains the spin temperature of the z~8 neutral IGM to 27 K < T_S < 630 K (2.3 K < T_S < 640 K) at 68% (95%) confidence. They therefore also place a lower bound on X-ray heating, a previously unconstrained aspects of early galaxies. For example, if the CMB dominates the z~8 radio background, the new HERA limits imply that the first galaxies produced X-rays more efficiently than local ones (with soft band X-ray luminosities per star formation rate constrained to L_X/SFR = { 10^40.2, 10^41.9 } erg/s/(M_sun/yr) at 68% confidence), consistent with expectations of X-ray binaries in low-metallicity environments. The z~10 limits require even earlier heating if dark-matter interactions (e.g., through millicharges) cool down the hydrogen gas. Using a model in which an extra radio background is produced by galaxies, we rule out (at 95% confidence) the combination of high radio and low X-ray luminosities of L_{r,\nu}/SFR > 3.9 x 10^24 W/Hz/(M_sun/yr) and L_X/SFR<10^40 erg/s/(M_sun/yr). The new HERA upper limits neither support nor disfavor a cosmological interpretation of the recent EDGES detection. The analysis framework described here provides a foundation for the interpretation of future HERA results., Comment: 40 pages, 19 figures, accepted to ApJ

The presence of excess scatter in the Ly-$\alpha$ forest at $z\sim 5.5$, together with the existence of sporadic extended opaque Gunn-Peterson troughs, has started to provide robust evidence for a late end of hydrogen reionisation. However, low data quality and systematic uncertainties complicate the use of Ly-$\alpha$ transmission as a precision probe of reionisation's end stages. In this paper, we assemble a sample of 67 quasar sightlines at $z>5.5$ with high signal-to-noise ratios of $>10$ per $\leq 15$ km s$^{-1}$ spectral pixel, relying largely on the new XQR-30 quasar sample. XQR-30 is a large program on VLT/X-Shooter which obtained deep (SNR $>20$ per pixel) spectra of 30 quasars at $z>5.7$. We carefully account for systematics in continuum reconstruction, instrumentation, and contamination by damped Ly-$\alpha$ systems. We present improved measurements of the mean Ly-$\alpha$ transmission over $4.93.5 \sigma$). Our results indicate that reionisation-related fluctuations, whether in the UVB, residual neutral hydrogen fraction, and/or IGM temperature, persist in the intergalactic medium until at least $z=5.3$ ($t=1.1$ Gyr after the Big Bang). This is further evidence for a late end to reionisation., Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRAS. Full measurement datasets are available on the first author's website

The highly neutral inter-galactic medium (IGM) during the Epoch of Reionization (EoR) is expected to suppress Ly$\alpha$ emission with damping-wing absorption, causing nearly no Ly$\alpha$ detection from star-forming galaxies at $z{\sim}8$. However, spectroscopic observations of the 4 brightest galaxies (${\rm H}_{160}{\sim}25$ mag) at these redshifts do reveal prominent Ly$\alpha$ line, suggesting locally ionised IGM. In this paper, we explore the Ly$\alpha$ IGM transmission and environment of bright galaxies during the EoR using the Meraxes semi-analytic model. We find brighter galaxies to be less affected by damping-wing absorption as they are effective at ionizing surrounding neutral hydrogen. Specifically, the brightest sources (${\rm H}_{160}{\lesssim}25.5$ mag) lie in the largest ionized regions in our simulation, and have low attenuation of their Ly$\alpha$ from the IGM (optical depth ${<}1$). Fainter galaxies (25.5 mag${<}{\rm H}_{160}{<}27.5$ mag) have transmission that depends on UV luminosity, leading to a lower incidence of Ly$\alpha$ detection at fainter magnitudes. This luminosity-dependent attenuation explains why Ly$\alpha$ has only been observed in the brightest galaxies at $z{\sim}8$. Follow-up observations have revealed counterparts in the vicinity of these confirmed $z{\sim}8$ Ly$\alpha$ emitters. The environments of our modelled analogues agree with these observations in the number of nearby galaxies, which is a good indicator of whether Ly$\alpha$ can be detected among fainter galaxies. At the current observational limit, galaxies with ${\ge}2$--5 neighbours within $2'{\times}2'$ are ${\sim}2$--3 times more likely to show Ly$\alpha$ emission. JWST will discover an order of magnitude more neighbours, revealing ${\gtrsim}50$ galaxies in the largest ionizing bubbles and facilitating direct study of reionization morphology., Comment: 10 pages, 3 figures, submitted to MNRAS, comments are welcome

The transmission of Lyman-{\alpha} (Ly{\alpha}) in the spectra of distant quasars depends on the density, temperature, and ionization state of the intergalactic medium (IGM). Therefore, high-redshift (z > 5) Ly{\alpha} forests could be invaluable in studying the late stages of the epoch of reionization (EoR), as well as properties of the sources that drive it. Indeed, high-quality quasar spectra have now firmly established the existence of large-scale opacity fluctuations at z > 5, whose physical origins are still debated. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework capable of constraining the EoR and galaxy properties by forward-modelling the high-z Ly{\alpha} forest. Using priors from galaxy and CMB observations, we demonstrate that the final overlap stages of the EoR (when >95% of the volume was ionized) should occur at z < 5.6, in order to reproduce the large-scale opacity fluctuations seen in forest spectra. However, it is the combination of patchy reionization and the inhomogeneous UV background that produces the longest Gunn-Peterson troughs. Ly{\alpha} forest observations tighten existing constraints on the characteristic ionizing escape fraction of galaxies, with the combined observations suggesting f_{\rm esc} \approx 7^4_3%, and disfavoring a strong evolution with the galaxy's halo (or stellar) mass., Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, submitted to MNRAS, comments are welcome

This brief code paper presents a new Python-wrapped version of the popular 21cm cosmology simulator, 21cmFAST. The new version, v3+, maintains the same core functionality of previous versions of 21cmFAST, but features a simple and intuitive interface, and a great deal more flexibility. This evolution represents the work of a formalized collaboration, and the new version, available publicly on GitHub, provides a single point-of-reference for all future upgrades and community-added features. In this paper, we describe simple usage of 21cmFAST, some of its new features, and provide a simple performance benchmark., Comment: 6 pages, 3 figures, published in JOSS

The first generation of galaxies is expected to form in minihalos, accreting gas through ${\rm H}_2$ cooling, and possessing unique properties. Although unlikely to be directly detected in UV/infrared surveys, the radiation from these molecular-cooling galaxies (MCGs) could leave an imprint in the 21-cm signal from the Cosmic Dawn. Here we quantify their detectability with upcoming radio interferometers. We generate mock 21-cm power spectra using a model for both MCGs as well as more massive, atomic-cooling galaxies (AGCs), allowing both populations to have different properties and scaling relations. The galaxy parameters are chosen so as to be consistent with: (i) high-redshift UV luminosity functions; (ii) the upper limit on the neutral fraction from QSO spectra; (iii) the Thomson scattering optical depth to the CMB; and (iv) the timing of the recent putative EDGES detection. The latter implies a significant contribution of MCGs to the Cosmic Dawn, if confirmed to be cosmological. We then perform Bayesian inference on two models including and ignoring MCG contributions. Comparing their Bayesian evidences, we find a strong preference for the model including MCGs, despite the fact that it has more free parameters. This suggests that if MCGs indeed play a significant role in the Cosmic Dawn, it should be possible to infer their properties from upcoming 21-cm power spectra. Our study illustrates how these observations can discriminate among uncertain galaxy formation models with varying complexities, by maximizing the Bayesian evidence., Comment: 12 pages, 3 figures, submitted to MNRAS, comments are welcome