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The land ice contribution to global mean sea level rise has not yet been predicted1 using ice sheet and glacier models for the latest set of socio-economic scenarios, nor using coordinated exploration of uncertainties arising from the various computer models involved. Two recent international projects generated a large suite of projections using multiple models2-8, but primarily used previous-generation scenarios9 and climate models10, and could not fully explore known uncertainties. Here we estimate probability distributions for these projections under the new scenarios11,12 using statistical emulation of the ice sheet and glacier models. We find that limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius would halve the land ice contribution to twenty-first-century sea level rise, relative to current emissions pledges. The median decreases from 25 to 13 centimetres sea level equivalent (SLE) by 2100, with glaciers responsible for half the sea level contribution. The projected Antarctic contribution does not show a clear response to the emissions scenario, owing to uncertainties in the competing processes of increasing ice loss and snowfall accumulation in a warming climate. However, under risk-averse (pessimistic) assumptions, Antarctic ice loss could be five times higher, increasing the median land ice contribution to 42 centimetres SLE under current policies and pledges, with the 95th percentile projection exceeding half a metre even under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming. This would severely limit the possibility of mitigating future coastal flooding. Given this large range (between 13 centimetres SLE using the main projections under 1.5 degrees Celsius warming and 42 centimetres SLE using risk-averse projections under current pledges), adaptation planning for twenty-first-century sea level rise must account for a factor-of-three uncertainty in the land ice contribution until climate policies and the Antarctic response are further constrained.

Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their 'buttressing' effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the 'end-member' scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1-12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91-5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments.

This study examines the interactions between the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and the ocean during the last glacial period. We explore the consequences of an ocean subsurface warming on ice sheet dynamics and the associated feedbacks, using the climate model of intermediate complexity iLOVECLIM coupled with the ice sheet model GRISLI. Our study shows that amplified oceanic basal melt rates lead to significant freshwater release from both increased calving and basal melt fluxes. Inland, dynamic thinning occurs over the Eurasian and Iceland ice sheets, leading to destabilization, while the coasts of Greenland and the eastern part of the Laurentide ice sheet are thickening. There, the increased oceanic basal melt rates lead to a reduction in the thickness of the ice shelves and the ice flow at the grounding line, resulting in upstream accumulation. Nevertheless, the influx of fresh water temporarily increases sea-ice extent, reduces convection in the Labrador Sea, weakens the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, lowers surface temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and increases the subsurface temperatures in the Nordic Seas. The release of cold and fresh water leads to a decrease in ice sheet discharge (negative feedback) for the Greenland and Eurasian ice sheets. The Laurentide ice sheet is rather stable due to low background temperatures and salinity at shelf drafts in the Baffin Bay and Labrador Sea in the model. Still, we show that we are able to trigger a grounding line retreat by imposing ad-hoc oceanic melt rates (10 m/yr). However, continental ice loss stops as soon as we halt the perturbation. This study emphasizes the complex feedback mechanisms at the ocean-ice sheet interface, stressing the necessity for more accurately constrained model results to enhance our understanding of past changes and the predictions of future ice sheet behaviour and sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial terminations are marked by a re-organisation of the different components of the climate system. In particular, rapid ice sheet disintegration leads to multiple complex feedback loops that are still poorly understood. To further investigate this aspect, we use here a fully coupled Northern Hemisphere ice sheet–climate model to perform numerical experiments of the last two glacial terminations. We show that even if the first-order climate trajectory is similar for the two terminations, the difference in terms of solar insolation leads to important changes for the ice sheet–climate system. Warmer temperatures during the penultimate termination are compatible with higher sea level during the last interglacial period with respect to the Holocene. We simulate a last interglacial Greenland contribution to sea level rise of about 2 m of sea level equivalent. We also simulate warmer subsurface Southern Ocean, compatible with an additional contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition, even without considering freshwater flux to the ocean resulting from ice sheet melting, the two terminations display different Atlantic overturning circulation sensitivity, this circulation being more prone to collapses during the penultimate termination. Finally, with additional sensitivity experiments we show that, for the two terminations, the Northern Hemisphere insolation is the main driver for the ice sheet retreat even if vegetation changes have also to be taken into account to simulate the full deglaciation. Conversely, even though it impacts the temperature, greenhouse gas concentration change alone does not explain the amplitude of ice sheet retreat and only modulates its timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Quaternary, ice sheets experienced several retreat-advanced cycles, strongly influencing climate patterns. In order to properly simulate these phenomena, it is preferable to use physics-based models instead of parameterizations to estimate surface mass balance (SMB) which has a strong influence on the ice sheet evolution. To further investigate the potential of these SMB models, this work evaluates BESSI (BErgen Snow Simulator), a multi-layer snow model with high computational efficiency, as an alternative to providing SMB for paleo studies. First, we validate the snow model using the regional climate model MAR (Modεave;le Atmosphérique Régional) as forcing and reference for the present-day climate over Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. The evolution of SMB over the Last Interglacial period (LIG) (130–116 kaBP) is computed by forcing BESSI with transient climate forcing obtained from an Earth system model i LOVECLIM for both ice sheets. For present-day climate conditions, BESSI exhibits good performance compared to MAR despite a much simpler model set-up. The model also captures well the variation of SMB and its components during the LIG. Compared to the current simple melt estimation scheme of i LOVECLIM (ITM), BESSI is able to capture different SMB patterns for two particular ice sheet climate conditions thanks to its higher physical constraints while ITM displays a strong sensitivity to its parameters and input fields (temperature). The findings suggest that BESSI can provide more reliable SMB estimations for the i LOVECLIM framework to improve the model simulations of the ice sheet evolution and interactions with climate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last deglaciation (21 to 8 ka) of the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS) is thought to have been responsible for a sea level rise of about 20 m. While many studies have examined the timing and rate of the EIS retreat during this period, many questions remain about the key processes that triggered the EIS deglaciation 21 kyr ago. Due to its large marine-based parts in the Barents–Kara (BKIS) and British Isles sectors, the BKIS is often considered to be a potential analogue of the current West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). Identifying the mechanisms that drove the EIS evolution might provide a better understanding of the processes at play in the West Antarctic destabilization. To investigate the relative impact of key drivers on the EIS destabilization, we used the three-dimensional ice sheet model GRISLI (GRenoble Ice Shelf and Land Ice) (version 2.0) forced by climatic fields from five Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phases 3 and 4 (PMIP3, PMIP4) Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) simulations. In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments to test the response of the simulated Eurasian ice sheets to surface climate, oceanic temperatures (and thus basal melting under floating ice tongues), and sea level perturbations. Our results highlight that the EIS retreat simulated with the GRISLI model is primarily triggered by atmospheric warming. Increased atmospheric temperatures further amplify the sensitivity of the ice sheets to sub-shelf melting. These results contradict those of previous modelling studies mentioning the central role of basal melting on the deglaciation of the marine-based Barents–Kara ice sheet. However, we argue that the differences with previous works are mainly related to differences in the methodology followed to generate the initial LGM ice sheet. Due to the strong sensitivity of EIS to the atmospheric forcing highlighted with the GRISLI model and the limited extent of the confined ice shelves during the LGM, we conclude by questioning the analogy between EIS and the current WAIS. However, because of the expected rise in atmospheric temperatures, the risk of hydrofracturing is increasing and could ultimately put the WAIS in a configuration similar to the past Eurasian ice sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Glacial terminations are marked by a re-organisation of the different components of the climate system. In particular, rapid ice sheet disintegration leads to multiple complex feedback loops that are still poorly understood. To further investigate this aspect, we use here a fully coupled Northern Hemisphere ice sheet – climate model to perform numerical experiments of the last two glacial terminations. We show that even if the first-order climate trajectory is similar for the two terminations, the difference in terms of solar insolation leads to important changes for the ice sheet – climate system. Warmer temperatures during the penultimate termination are compatible with higher sea level during the last interglacial period with respect to the Holocene. We simulate a last interglacial Greenland contribution to sea level rise of about 2 m of sea level equivalent. We also simulate warmer subsurface Southern Ocean, compatible with an additional contribution from the Antarctic ice sheet. In addition, even without considering freshwater flux to the ocean resulting from ice sheet melting, the two terminations display different Atlantic overturning circulation sensitivity, this circulation being more prone to collapses during the penultimate termination. Finally, with additional sensitivity experiments we show that, for the two terminations, the Northern Hemisphere insolation is the main driver for the ice sheet retreat even if vegetation changes have also to be taken into account to simulate the full deglaciation. Conversely, even though it impacts the temperature, greenhouse gas concentration change alone does not explain the amplitude of ice sheet retreat and only modulate its timing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the last deglaciation, the climate evolves from a cold state at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) at 21 ka (thousand years ago) with large ice sheets to the warm Holocene at ∼9 ka with reduced ice sheets. The deglacial ice sheet melt can impact the climate through multiple ways: changes of topography and albedo, bathymetry and coastlines, and freshwater fluxes (FWFs). In the PMIP4 (Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project – Phase 4) protocol for deglacial simulations, these changes can be accounted for or not depending on the modelling group choices. In addition, two ice sheet reconstructions are available (ICE-6G_C and GLAC-1D). In this study, we evaluate all these effects related to ice sheet changes on the climate using the iLOVECLIM model of intermediate complexity. We show that the two reconstructions yield the same warming to a first order but with a different amplitude (global mean temperature of 3.9 ∘ C with ICE-6G_C and 3.8 ∘ C with GLAC-1D) and evolution. We obtain a stalling of temperature rise during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (ACR, from ∼14 to ∼12 ka) similar to proxy data only with the GLAC-1D ice sheet reconstruction. Accounting for changes in bathymetry in the simulations results in a cooling due to a larger sea ice extent and higher surface albedo. Finally, freshwater fluxes result in Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) drawdown, but the timing in the simulations disagrees with proxy data of ocean circulation changes. This questions the causal link between reconstructed freshwater fluxes from ice sheet melt and recorded AMOC weakening. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last deglaciation (21000 to 8000 years BP) of the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS), is thought to have been responsible for a sea level rise of about 20 meters. While many studies have examined the timing and rate of the EIS retreat during this period, many questions remain about the key processes that triggered the EIS deglaciation 21,000 years ago. Due to its large marine-based parts in the Barents-Kara and British Isles sectors, EIS is often considered as a potential analog of the current West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). Identifying the mechanisms that drove the EIS evolution might provide a better understanding of the processes at play in the West Antarctic destabilization. To investigate the relative impact of key drivers on the EIS destabilization we used the three-dimensional ice sheet model GRISLI (version 2.0) forced by climatic fields from five PMIP3/PMIP4 LGM simulations. In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments to test the response of the simulated Eurasian ice sheets to surface climate, oceanic temperatures (and thus basal melting under floating ice tongues) and sea level perturbations. Our results highlight that the EIS retreat is primarily triggered by atmospheric warming. Increased atmospheric temperatures further amplify the sensitivity of the ice sheets to sub-shelf melting. These results contradict those of previous modelling studies mentioning the central role of basal melting on the deglaciation of the marine-based Barents-Kara ice sheet. However, we argue that the differences with previous works are mainly related to differences in the methodology followed to generate the initial LGM ice sheet. We conclude that being primarily sensitive to the atmospheric forcing, the Eurasian ice sheet cannot be considered as a direct analogue of the present-day West Antarctic ice sheet. However, because of the expected rise in atmospheric temperatures, risk of hydrofracturing is increasing and could ultimately put the WAIS in a configuration similar to the pas Eurasian ice sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The last deglaciation (21000 to 8000 years BP) of the Eurasian ice sheet (EIS), is thought to have been responsible for a sea level rise of about 20 meters. While many studies have examined the timing and rate of the EIS retreat during this period, many questions remain about the key processes that triggered the EIS deglaciation 21,000 years ago. Due to its large marine-based parts in the Barents-Kara and British Isles sectors, EIS is often considered as a potential analog of the current West Antarctic ice sheet (WAIS). Identifying the mechanisms that drove the EIS evolution might provide a better understanding of the processes at play in the West Antarctic destabilization. To investigate the relative impact of key drivers on the EIS destabilization we used the three-dimensional ice sheet model GRISLI (version 2.0) forced by climatic fields from five PMIP3/PMIP4 LGM simulations. In this study, we performed sensitivity experiments to test the response of the simulated Eurasian ice sheets to surface climate, oceanic temperatures (and thus basal melting under floating ice tongues) and sea level perturbations. Our results highlight that the EIS retreat is primarily triggered by atmospheric warming. Increased atmospheric temperatures further amplify the sensitivity of the ice sheets to sub-shelf melting. These results contradict those of previous modelling studies mentioning the central role of basal melting on the deglaciation of the marine-based Barents-Kara ice sheet. However, we argue that the differences with previous works are mainly related to differences in the methodology followed to generate the initial LGM ice sheet. We conclude that being primarily sensitive to the atmospheric forcing, the Eurasian ice sheet cannot be considered as a direct analogue of the present-day West Antarctic ice sheet. However, because of the expected rise in atmospheric temperatures, risk of hydrofracturing is increasing and could ultimately put the WAIS in a configuration similar to the pas Eurasian ice sheet. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the Last Deglaciation, the climate evolves from a cold state at the Last Glacial Maximum at 21 ka with large ice sheets, to the warm Holocene at ~9 ka with reduced ice sheets. The deglacial ice sheet melt can impact the climate through multiple ways: changes of topography and albedo, bathymetry and coastlines, as well as fresh water fluxes. In the PMIP4 protocol for deglacial simulations, these changes can be accounted or not depending on the modelling group choices. In addition, two ice sheet reconstructions are available (ICE-6G_C and GLAC-1D). In this study, we evaluate all these effects related to ice sheet changes on the climate using the iLOVECLIM model of intermediate complexity. We show that the two reconstructions yield the same warming to a first order, but with a different amplitude (3.9°C with ICE-6G_C and 3.8°C with GLAC-1D) and evolution. We obtain a stalling of temperature rise during the Antarctic Cold Reversal (from ~14 ka to ~12 ka) similar to proxy data only with the GLAC-1D ice sheet reconstruction. Accounting for changes in bathymetry in the simulations results in a cooling due to a larger sea ice extent and higher surface albedo. Finally, fresh water fluxes result in AMOC drawdown, but the timing in the simulations disagrees with proxy data of ocean circulation changes. This questions the links between reconstructed fresh water fluxes from ice sheet melt and recorded AMOC weakening and their representation in models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]