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7 results on '"Ríos-Gutiérrez, Andrés"'

1. Comparison of screening for methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) at hospital admission and discharge

Author

Butler, Cole, Cheng, Jinjin, Correa, Lorena, Preciado-Rivas, Maria, Rios-Gutierrez, Andres, Montalvo, Cesar, and Kribs, Christopher

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution, 92B99
Abstract

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is a significant contributor to the growing concern of antibiotic resistant bacteria, especially given its stubborn persistence in hospitals and other health care facility settings. In combination with this characteristic of S. aureus (colloquially referred to as staph), MRSA presents an additional barrier to treatment and is now believed to have colonized two of every 100 people worldwide. According to the CDC, MRSA prevalence sits as high as 25-50% in countries such as the United Kingdom and the United States. Given the resistant nature of staph as well as its capability of evolving to compensate antibiotic treatment, controlling MRSA levels is more a matter of precautionary and defensive measures. This study examines the method of "search and isolation," which seeks to isolate MRSA positive patients in a hospital so as to decrease infection potential. Although this strategy is straightforward, the question of just whom to screen is of practical importance. We compare screening at admission to screening at discharge. To do this, we develop a mathematical model and use simulations to determine MRSA endemic levels in a hospital with either control measure implemented. We found that screening at discharge was the more effective method in controlling MRSA endemicity, but at the cost of a greater number of isolated patients., Comment: 20 pages, 7 figures

Published
2019

7. Modelos epidemiológicos estocásticos y su inferencia: casos SIS y SEIR

Author

Ríos Gutiérrez, Andrés Sebastián and Arunachalam, Viswanathan

Subjects
Modelos epidemiológicos estocásticos, Deterministic epidemic models, Stochastic epidemic models, Modelo SIR, Modelo SIS, 31 Colecciones de estadística general / Statistics, SEIR model, Basic reproduction number, SIS model, Modelo SEIR, 51 Matemáticas / Mathematics, Modelos epidemiológicos deterministas, 61 Ciencias médicas, Medicina / Medicine and health, Número reproductivo básico, Simulaciones por Euler-Maruyama, Euler Maruyama simulations, SIR model, 5 Ciencias naturales y matemáticas / Science
Abstract

En este trabajo, se presentan dos modelos epidemiológicos con perturbación aleatoria, basados en los modelos epidemiológicos deterministas de tipo SIS y SEIR. Se discute la definición de número reproductivo básico en ambos modelos, proponiendo dos definiciones: el número reproductivo básico el cual se obtiene a partir de la estabilidad asintótica del punto de equilibrio libre de enfermedad de cada modelo y de variable aleatoria reproductiva básica obtenida a partir de la definición de número reproductivo como una integral de una función de sobrevivencia. Una vez se tienen tales definiciones se estudian la relación entre el número y variable aleatoria en cada modelo. Se estudian cuatro aspectos fundamentales: existencia y unicidad de la solución (por ejemplo, de la población infectada), extinción de la enfermedad, persistencia en la media y existencia de la distribución estacionaria. Finalmente se presentan los resultados de la simulaciones de los modelos y se propone la estimación de parámetros por el método de máxima verosimilitud. Abstract: In this paper, two epidemiological models with random perturbation are presented, based on the deterministic epidemiological SIS and SEIR models. The definition of the basic reproductive number in both models is discussed, proposing two definitions: the basic reproductive number which is obtained from the asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium point of each model and the basic reproductive random variable which is obtained from the definition of reproductive number as an integral of a survival function. Once such definitions are given, it studies the relationship between the number and the random variable in each model. Four fundamental aspects are studied in each model: existence and uniqueness of the solution (for example, infected population), extinction of the disease, persistence in the mean and existence of the stationary distribution. Finally, the results of the simulations in the models are presented and it proposes an estimation of parameters by the maximum likelihood method. Maestría

Published
2018

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