Search

Anthropogenic emissions are the result of many different economic sectors, including transportation, power generation, industrial, residential and commercial activities, waste treatment and agricultural practices. Air quality models are used to forecast the atmospheric composition, analyze observations and reconstruct the chemical composition of the atmosphere during the previous decades. In order to drive these models, gridded emissions of all compounds need to be provided. This paper describes a new global inventory of emissions called CAMS-GLOB-ANT, developed as part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS; https://doi.org/10.24380/eets-qd81, Soulie et al., 2023). The inventory provides monthly averages of the global emissions of 36 compounds, including the main air pollutants and greenhouse gases, at a spatial resolution of 0.1° × 0.1° in latitude and longitude, for 17 emission sectors. The methodology to generate the emissions for the 2000–2023 period is explained, and the datasets are analyzed and compared with publicly available global and regional inventories for selected world regions. Depending on the species and regions, good agreements as well as significant differences are highlighted, which can be further explained through an analysis of different sectors as shown in the figures in the Supplement.

Spatially distributed anthropogenic and open burning emissions are fundamental data needed by Earth system models. We describe the methods used for generating gridded datasets produced for use by the modeling community, particularly for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6. The development of three sets of gridded data for historical open burning, historical anthropogenic, and future scenarios was coordinated to produce consistent data over 1750–2100. Historical data up to 2014 were provided with annual resolution and future scenario data in 10-year intervals. Emissions are provided on a sectoral basis, along with additional files for speciated non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs). An automated framework was developed to produce these datasets to ensure that they are reproducible and facilitate future improvements. We discuss the methodologies used to produce these data along with limitations and potential for future work.

We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated assessment model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emissions source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios is bounded on the low end by a 1.9 W m−2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2 ∘C, and on the high end by a 8.5 W m−2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5 ∘C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.

Living in different areas is associated with different impacts; the movement of people to and from those areas will affect energy use and emissions over the U.S. The emissions implications of state-to-state migration on household energy and GHG emissions are explored. Three million households move across state lines annually, and generally move from the North East to the South and West. Migrating households often move to states with different climates (thus different heating and cooling and needs), different fuel mixes, and different regional electricity grids, which leads them to experience changes in household emissions as a result of their move. Under current migration trends, the emissions increases of households moving from the Northeast to the South and Southwest are balanced by the emissions decreases of households moving to California and the Pacific Northwest. The net sum of emissions changes for migrating households is slightly positive but near zero; however, that net zero sum represents the balance of many emission changes. Planning for continued low carbon growth in low carbon regions or cities experiencing high growth rates driven by migration is essential in order to offset the moderate emissions increases experienced by households moving to high carbon regions.

This study estimates fossil-based CO(2) emissions and energy use from 1900-2000 for Allegheny County, PA. Total energy use and emissions increased from 1900 to 1970, reflecting the significant industrial, economic, and population growth that occurred in Allegheny County. From 1970 to 2000, Allegheny County experienced a 30% decrease in total emissions and energy use from peak values, primarily because of a decline in industrial activity (40% decrease in value added) and the loss of a quarter of its population. Despite these dramatic economic and demographic transitions, per capita emissions remained stable from 1970 to 2000, buoyed by relatively stable or slightly increasing emissions in the commercial and transportation sectors. Allegheny County's history suggests the scale of change needed to achieve local emissions reductions may be significant; given years of major technological, economic, and demographic changes, per capita emissions in 1940 were nearly the same in 2000. Most local governments are planning emissions reductions rates that exceed 1% per year, which deviate significantly from historical trends. Our results suggest additional resources and improved planning paradigms are likely necessary to achieve significant emissions reductions, especially for areas where emissions are still increasing.