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Building on Schumpeter Mark I and Mark II, I propose an additional pattern of innovation and technological regime called the intellectual monopoly (IM) to explain the co-habitation of large incumbent firms with high entry and exit rates and provide evidence for pharmaceuticals and information technologies. I associate the IM pattern and technological regime with corporate innovation systems and illustrate that patterns not only evolve after changes in technological regimes but also due to economic, political, and institutional transformations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

African First Ladies are categorised into two: the less powerful First Ladies, the behind-the-scene actors, making positive contributions to their spouses’ regime and the powerful First Ladies whose arbitrary powers and overarching presence pose real threat to the regime. Extant studies concentrate on the former and pay scant attention to the latter. Drawing on the activities of Patience Goodluck Jonathan, Nigeria’s former First Lady, this paper explores the ways Patience and other powerful African First Ladies contribute to regime change in emerging African democracies. In doing so, the paper explores the anatomy of female power and its intricate interface with the Office of the First Lady, the framework for appropriating and exercising the power of the First Lady. The goal is to provide the theoretical basis for understanding the empirical, that is, the practical ways Patience Jonathan and other powerful First Ladies appropriate power and contribute to regime change in Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate change increases the need to understand the effect of predicted future temperature and nutrient scenarios on marine phytoplankton. However, experimental studies addressing the effects of both drivers use a variety of design approaches regarding their temperature change rate and nutrient supply regimes. This study combines a systematic literature map to identify the existing bias in the experimental design of studies evaluating the phytoplankton response to temperature change, with a laboratory experiment. The experiment was designed to quantify how different temperature levels (6°C, 12°C, and 18°C), temperature regimes (abrupt vs. gradual increase), timings of nutrient addition (before or after the temperature change) and nutrient regimes (limiting vs. balanced) alter the growth and stoichiometry of a natural marine phytoplankton community. The systematic map revealed three key biases in marine global change experiments: (1) 66% of the studies do not explicitly describe the experimental temperature change or nutrient regime, (2) 84% applied an abrupt temperature exposure, and (3) only 15% experimentally manipulated the nutrient regime. Our experiment demonstrated that the identified biases in experimental design toward abrupt temperature exposure induced a short‐term growth overshoot compared to gradually increasing temperatures. Additionally, the timing of nutrient availability strongly modulated the direction of the temperature effect and strength of growth enhancement along balanced N : P supply ratios. Our study stresses that the rate of temperature change, the timing of nutrient addition and the N : P supply ratio should be considered in experimental planning to produce ecologically relevant results as different setups lead to contrasting directions of outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article engages with the question of coordinating action during transitional and politically volatile times, in high-stakes situations. More specifically, I look at a local assembly that was established to campaign for the 'no' vote against regime change in the 2017 constitutional referendum in Turkey, and how it disintegrated at a time when coordinated action was perceived as the only viable strategy by the participants. Based on participant-observation and ethnographic interviews, I argue that instead of framing or strategy, differences in temporal frameworks eroded the basis on which activists usually coordinated their next steps, leading to an unresolvable mismatch in their anticipation of future events, and therefore, in action. I characterize the temporal dynamics of political contestation in such contexts as a 'politics of anticipation,' where futurity and temporality themselves become subjects of political contention. As such, this article contributes to the study of anti-authoritarian social movements, studies of time and temporality, and to the sociology of time and the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Brexit will have implications on financial stability and the implementation of macroprudential policies. The United Kingdom (UK) will no longer be subject to the jurisdiction of the European Systemic Risk Board. This paper studies the welfare implications of this change of regime. By means of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model, I compare the pre‐Brexit scenario with the new one, in which the UK sets macroprudential policy independently. I find that, after Brexit, the UK is better off by setting its own macroprudential policy without taking into account Europe's welfare as a whole. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many studies have argued that watchdog journalism cannot flourish under authoritarianism. However, the effect of the democratization of previously authoritarian regimes on watchdog journalism is still poorly understood. This article aims to fill this knowledge gap by using Kompas, Indonesia's oldest daily newspaper, as a case study. Drawing on four years of ethnographic fieldwork (2013–2017) within Kompas 's newsroom and one year of archival review (2020–2021), this study shows that the newspaper did not truly function as a watchdog. Instead, it developed a specific style that we conceptualize as "polite" watchdog journalism, that is, monitoring the wrongdoing of those in power in such a manner that does not hurt the feelings of those in power. This style of journalism was developed in response to the cultural and political-economic forces that intersected in and shaped its newsroom. Kompas developed close relationships with authoritarian power holders, thereby avoiding the persistent threat of bans and securing the economic advantages of their close ties with those in power. After the regime change, polite journalism continued to be practiced, both to maintain its political leverage and to preserve its economic advantage in the post-authoritarian era. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article introduces a rational expectations model that explains exchange rate dynamics and the predictability of forecast errors using private (aggregated via order flow) and public (probabilities of a binary event) information. We test the model for the periods leading up to the presidential impeachment vote in Brazil, the Brexit Referendum, and Donald Trump's election in 2016. Proxies of the physical probabilities of these events reveal that they are a crucial source of pricing information for the BRL, GBP, and MXN currency pairs with the US dollar. They also explain forecast errors. The information content of order flow changes before and after an actual regime change resolves uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article analyzes the Brazilian business cycle from Jan 2000 to February 2020 using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) model. In Brazilian literature, articles aiming to obtain stylized facts using SVAR models adopt controversial identification hypotheses. The identification via heteroskedasticity emerges as an alternative, eliminating the need for such restrictions. Despite the limited sample size of Brazilian data, we exogenously select regimes with sufficient changes in the variance of the residuals over time. This allows us to identify a SVAR model via heteroskedasticity, as proposed by Brunnermeier et al. (Am Econ Rev 111(6):1845–79, 2021), using a different set of macro variables. The results from this approach are similar to those of a model identified via sign restrictions, providing support for the economic theory used by the latter to identify the shocks. The agnostic approach of identification via heteroskedasticity has enabled the identification of a new shock. We interpret it as a "pessimism" shock, particularly related to future expectations about economic activity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have suggested possible connections between the decreasing Arctic sea‐ice and long‐duration (>5 days, LD) cold weather events in Eurasia and North America. Here we document the occurrences of weather regimes in winter by their durations, based on the empirical orthogonal function analyses of the daily geopotential height fields at 500 hPa (z500) for the months of November–March 1979–2019. Significant changes in the occurrence frequency and persistence of Ural ridge (UR) and weak stratospheric polar vortex (PV) were found between winters following high and low autumn sea‐ice covers (SIC) in the Barents and Kara seas. It is shown that a strengthening of the UR is accompanied with a weakening of the PV, and a weak PV favors Greenland ridge (GR). Cold spells in East Asia persist for 5 more days after an LDUR. Cold spells from Canada to the U.S. occur 2–5 days after an LD Ural trough (UT) and are associated with a z500 anomaly dipole centered over Alaska (+) and Hudson Bay (−). Cold spells in the eastern U.S. occur 1–4 days after an LDGR due to circulations resembling the Pacific‐North America pattern. Increased occurrences of UR in winter are associated with a decreased eastward propagation of synoptic waves from the North Atlantic to Japan and the North Pacific. Plain Language Summary: Analyses of observations show more frequent occurrences of long‐duration events of Ural ridge (UR), Greenland ridge (GR) and weak polar vortex (PV) in winter tend to follow low autumn sea ice cover (SIC) in the Barents and Kara Seas, and less frequent for Ural trough (UT) and strong PV. Long‐duration UR (GR or UT) events are followed by cold snaps in East Asia (the eastern US or Canada). Long‐term natural or anthropogenic warming in the Arctic and decreasing autumn SIC may cause more frequent cold air outbreaks in East Asia and the eastern US in winter, but less in Canada. Key Points: The Ural ridge regime and weak polar vortex are more frequent and persistent following low autumn sea ice in the Nordic seasThe long‐duration Ural and Greenland ridge regimes are followed by cold snaps in East Asia and the eastern USCold anomalies occur more frequently in Canada with increasing occurrences of the long‐duration Ural trough regimes [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Parallels between the Afghanistan and Iraq wars include phony victories (bought from local forces), phony aims and claims (train the Afghan army, secure women's rights, rebuild Iraq), shifts of alliances (allies become outcasts), creating 'homeless Sunnis' (who later join the IS). If we view Iraq and Afghanistan on a wider canvas alongside Pakistan, do wider parallels emerge? The Iraq and Afghanistan wars are profoundly tragic, but are they exceptional? If we view Iraq and Afghanistan as extensions of and variations on the Cold War, do different patterns emerge? Would they help us understand problems of regime change more clearly? This article views the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan as part of a series and reflects on what this series tells us. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The vortex-induced vibration of a step cylinder comprising two coaxially arranged cylinders of different diameters with a step between them is simulated numerically. The purpose is to investigate the impact of the interaction between the two cylinders on the vibration and the wake mode of the step cylinder. In this study, the Reynolds number, diameter ratio, and mass ratio are fixed at 150, 0.5, and 2, respectively. Two distinct lock-in regimes are observed, which are named larger cylinder (LC) lock-in regime and smaller cylinder (SC) lock-in regime. In the SC lock-in regime (for reduced velocities between 2.25 and 2.75), the vortex shedding of the SC synchronizes with the vibration, while the vortex shedding of the LC does not. The lift coefficient of the LC has dual frequency components, a lower-frequency and smaller-amplitude component and a higher-frequency and larger-amplitude component associated with vortex shedding and vibration, respectively. In the LC lock-in regime (for reduced velocities between 4 and 7), the vortex shedding of the LC synchronizes with the vibration, while the vortex shedding frequency of the SC increases with increasing reduced velocity, with reduced velocities of 4 and 5 being exceptions, at which the vortex shedding of both the LC and the SC locks in with the vibration frequency. The dual lock-in at reduced velocities of 4 and 5 results in a periodic chainlike wake behind the step where all the vortices from the LC are linked together by N-N loops. At the reduced velocity of 7, a very small difference between the vortex shedding frequency of the SC and twice the vibration frequency causes a low-frequency beating of the lift coefficient. The wake is in the indirect mode with an N-cell in the SC lock-in regime but changes to the direct mode without an N-cell in the LC lock-in regime. It is confirmed that in either of the lock-in regimes, the lock-in cylinder excites the vibration, whereas the non-lock-in cylinder damps the vibration. The damping effect of the non-lock-in cylinder results in a vibration amplitude lower than that in the lock-in regime of a uniform lock-in cylinder. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Orthodox scholarship claims the CIA-MI6 covert actions in Albania and Ukraine in the early Cold War exemplified a singular effort to rollback Soviet power in Europe. Using recently declassified files, this article presents a case study of Operation BGFiend/Valuable and Aerodynamic to challenge the existence of an aggressive rollback programme. These were limited, diverse and strategically dynamic projects that did not seek regime change in either territory. The west subverted Hoxha's Albanian regime, focusing on intelligence collection and propaganda. In Ukraine, emphasis was on gathering intelligence, particularly to provide early warning of an anticipated Soviet invasion of Western Europe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A functional legislature is very vital for democratisation. During the time of democratic consolidation, parliament changes from its primary roles of oversight, representation and legislation into 'important public arenas of partisan dispute, of encounters with social topics, of negotiations and of important decision-making'. Populist leaders in parliamentary systems like Turkey recently either led to sui generis presidential systems or transformed them into illiberal democracies by expanding the executive branch's power to amend the constitution, which contradicts the favourable conditions of the third wave of democratisation at the turn of the twenty-first century. By streamlining legislative processes, the Turkish Constitution of 1982 envisaged an empowered executive that would subordinate the parliament. The three constitutional modifications passed after 2007 resulted in de-democratisation, de-parliamentarisation and eventually, a regime change from democratic consolidation to autocracy. The parliamentary debates on these constitutional amendments, which included popular presidential election, judicial reform and the so-called 'Turkish style' presidential governance system, failed to reach a consensus and were marked by an adversarial rather than deliberative approach. Have constitutional reforms made in the name of re-democratisation resulted in de-democratisation, with the legislature entirely crippled, the judiciary reliant and the executive exercising sole authority? This study aims to analyse the impact of three consequential constitutional amendments on democratic backsliding in Turkey, with special reference to the decline of parliament. Parliamentary minutes on the relevant constitutional amendments, procedural changes disabling the parliament from performing its legislative and oversight functions and the actual outcomes of these amendments in terms of executive-legislative relations will be discussed. In conclusion, potentials for strengthening parliament, checks and balances, and re-democratisation will be presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 2023 Turkish elections marked a historic juncture in the nation's political trajectory. Amidst economic, social, and political upheavals, coupled with a devastating earthquake, the elections served as a decisive evaluation of the newly inaugurated presidential system. With the incumbent Justice and Development Party (Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi – AKP) lagging in polls for the first time in over twenty years, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan of the People's Alliance faced formidable opposition yet managed to score a victory in the second round. This article delves into the contrasting campaign strategies of the two leading candidates, Erdoğan and Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu. We argue that while Erdoğan's campaign leaned on negative tactics and exclusionary populism, emphasizing counter-terrorism, identity politics, and regime maintenance, Kılıçdaroğlu's strategy championed positive messaging buoyed by inclusive populism, spotlighting democratization, good governance, and regime change. Within an overarching competitive authoritarian context, these distinct strategies highlighted the intricate dynamics between campaign narratives and voter perception. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses inflation in France since the early 1960s based on a standard conflicting-claims approach. Applying an empirical version of the conflict-inflation framework, we adduce evidence suggesting the theory is sound and can explain variations in inflation over the long run. We provide a method for estimating indicators of workers' and firms' bargaining power as well as their respective distributional aspirations. Based on the literature we identify four periods: the Fordist regime, the Neoliberal regime, and two transitional periods. Our results cast light on institutional regime changes. It is shown that the evolution from the Great Inflation to the Great Moderation was the consequence of a collapse in the bargaining power of workers (and of firms to a lesser extent); but the narrowing of the aspirations' gap because of workers' renouncement was also significant. This analysis allows us to highlight differences between the stagflation observed during the 1970s and the inflationary surge in the post-pandemic period (2021–2023). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Failures in rebuilding states have generally been studied in terms of localised, sectarian strife, with little comprehension of how external interventions alter state authority. Yet, how do international interventions contribute to authority-making? I argue that authority certifications hold a twofold cure/poisoning potential producing a selective right to rule. By analysing the politics of recognition in the Libyan conflict between 2011 and 2016, this article unpacks mechanisms of legitimacy certification and decertification throughout three stages of international intervention (regime change, democratisation, and mediation). Certifications, I argue, promote a simulacrum of sovereignty by legitimising domestic forces, who then utilise certification to enhance their claim to power. By combining a focus on recognition politics with a process-oriented perspective on the mechanics of authority-making, I advance the notion of certification as a tool for political re-ordering. Theoretically, I define a selective right to rule as an externally filtered entitlement resulting from certification practices that shape complex power struggles. Empirically, I demonstrate how certification systems further divided and split Libya after 2011. While NATO's involvement dispersed the military strength essential for regime change, UN-led democratisation and mediation efforts fueled an institutional limbo that aided rival military and political powers, bolstering divergent authority claims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

How do democratization processes affect voter turnout in new democracies? Existing work points to an expected boost in electoral turnout after democratization as newly democratic citizens are euphoric to exert newly democratic freedoms or because they developed new political attitudes and behaviours by mobilizing for democracy. While intuitive and normatively appealing, these explanations have not been theoretically nor empirically scrutinized within the literature. This paper develops and tests novel theoretical expectations on the processes and legacies of democratization that impact voter turnout in new democracies. Using electoral turnout data from 1086 national elections between 1946 and 2015, and turnout survey data of over 1 million respondents between 1982 and 2015, we find that the boost in voter turnout (1) exists only for the first election after transition, (2) its effect depends on the life cycle during which individuals experienced the transition and (3) it is less dependent on transition type. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

When examining the economic impact of a change in policy regime, one may elect to conduct a positive analysis that considers the effect of such a policy change on the allocations supported as a market equilibrium. An alternative approach would be to perform a normative analysis that examines the effect of the regime change on the set of Pareto optimal allocations in the economy. In settings where the Fundamental Welfare Theorems hold, the isomorphism between equilibrium and Pareto efficient allocations implies that the choice of approach is largely a matter of convenience. When this isomorphism fails to hold, as in settings with hidden information or hidden actions, the equilibrium allocations may not be efficient so that a normative analysis of the alternative efficiency frontiers is required to determine whether the policy change is desirable in the sense of permitting potential Pareto improvements. If so, then an equilibrium analysis may be used to determine the extent to which such improvements may be realized by market participants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conflicting factions within the late-Francoist regime, starting around 1968, prompted a slow-paced decline of the regime's internal power structures, with an uncertain expiry date. Clandestine groups within universities and workers' organizations pressed for regime change at different levels, and voices also emerged from within the Catholic Church and the army, often with the aim of restoring Spain's international relations with its European neighbors and ending isolation. Increasingly rattled by the violence and the organized terrorist activity of Euskadi Ta Askatasuna, the repressive apparatus of the regime was determined not to relinquish control. It retaliated with large doses of information, disinformation, propaganda, and outright violence. Late-Francoist Spain thus presents a case study of practices and dynamics initiated during a nondemocratic period, whose legacy survived over the years and influenced the intelligence apparatus of the democratic country in which the Spanish now live. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much research in political science relies on datasets produced by human coders. Many variables included in these datasets are not based on observable facts but rather require a considerable level of human judgment. This project studies the extent to which this judgment is affected by availability bias and how it influences the retrospective coding of historic cases. The analysis uses coder-level data from the V-Dem project, one of the few datasets collecting and releasing codings tagged with timestamps when they were produced. The results show that recent dramatic events in a country just prior to the coding have a small, but visible impact on coder ratings, but primarily for those variables that are directly related to the observed events. The magnitude of this effect, however, is small. This alleviates concerns that prominent events in world politics around the time of coding significantly affect the reliability of cross-national indicators. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study how economic crises relate to the likelihood of experiencing regime changes 'from within'; that is, transitions brought about, in part or fully, by actors in the incumbent regime. While historically common and influencing the political trajectories of many countries, such processes are far less studied than regime transitions forced by non-incumbent actors, such as coups or revolutions. We synthesize previous arguments and further specify how crises can incentivize leaders to change the regime from within due to two mechanisms. First, crises create windows of opportunity for leaders to pursue transitions they inherently prefer, for instance through self-coup. Second, crises sometimes allow opposition actors to mobilize and threaten the regime, forcing incumbents to liberalize. We leverage new data on timing and mode of regime change for more than 2000 regimes from about 200 countries, during the period 1789–2018. Employing different measurement strategies, estimators, control variables and other specification choices, we find fairly robust evidence that economic crises are related to transitions from within. However, when we distinguish between liberalizing and non-liberalizing guided transitions, we only find that economic crises systematically relate to the latter, suggesting that the window of opportunity mechanism may be especially pertinent in many contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Lai Xá Village, Vietnam, studio photography is the village handicraft. Counter to Walter Benjamin's characterization of the click of a button, privileging eye over hand, but typical of many craft traditions, photographers there describe painstaking apprenticeships through which they learned to master the tools and materials of their craft. They learned to compensate for the shifting properties of light, climate, humidity, and irregular supplies of electricity, chemicals and printing paper, and adapted to changing regimes of technique and labor organization. As in many other craft traditions, apprentices often acquired their most valuable knowledge by stealth. We argue that studio photography belongs within contemporary discussions of craft as a handed, adaptive, engaged, small-scale social practice, and that craft awareness enables a richer ethnographic understanding of the work of studio photographers, both material and social. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article investigates the emergence of 'new' forms of working such as 'lean production' and 'learning organisations' in Western Europe, 1995–2015. First, the article identifies the dominant forms of work organisation ('workplace regimes') across Western Europe, including new 'pressure' and 'extreme' varieties of previously identified regimes. Second, the article analyses the implications of these workplace regimes for various important worker outcomes – insecurity, income, intensity of work and intrusion of work into non-working life – and assesses the 'trade-offs' of different outcomes across regimes. Third, the article assesses the changing distribution of these regimes, whether certain forms such as Lean Production are coming to dominate the division of labour, and where and for whom. The shape of the 'new world of work' is increasingly Lean, but remains open to political contestation – both in how regimes themselves are organised and in the mix of regimes in particular societies and for particular workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Between 1644 and 1672, England halted the production of its lowest denomination coins, prompting ordinary individuals and communities to create coins to address the shortage of small change. A large twentieth-century collection that includes over 13,000 such surviving tokens has largely been overlooked by historians and economists, despite the tokens' significance. In this source and others are a total of over 9,000 types of tokens, originating mainly from the City of London, thirty-seven English counties, and the Irish Pale. Catalogued in an eight-volume Sylloge, published over thirty years, the tokens offer valuable insights into England's history and societal dynamics during a tumultuous period that included two major regime changes, plague, and London's Great Fire. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What is the impact of large swings in economic policy on the risk-return trade-off faced by i nvestors? What is the impact of changes in policy regimes on investment strategies? In this paper we study the impact on returns of switches between periods of market-friendly economic policies and periods of populist policies. To quantify the impact of policy instability, we use data from Argentina--a country that has experienced frequent and very large regime changes--and find that the risk-return for individual assets and minimum variance portfolios are quite different across regimes. We then develop a dynamic model to understand optimal portfolios when investors are cognizant that regimes can change. We find that when portfolios are unrestricted, it is optimal for investors to take a large amount of risk. On the other hand, when portfolios are restricted to include only long positions, a real asset (real estate) dominates financial assets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The recent resurgence of inflation in Europe has led the ECB to increase interest rates and phase out asset purchase programmes designed to address the effects of the Great Financial Crisis. This article investigates how the ECB has adjusted its logic of responsibility throughout this series of crises. Using a topic model and in-depth analysis of speeches, we examine the ECB's strategic framing of linkages related to inflation during three historical periods: the Central Bank Independence (CBI) era (1998–2011), the secular stagnation era (2011–2021), and the new inflation era (2021-). Our findings indicate that modifications made to the CBI's linkages during the secular stagnation era shaped the ECB's framing of the new inflation era in a novel way. However, despite acknowledging difficult policy tradeoffs, which they used to downplay in the past, ECB policymakers have continued to reframe its initial imperative of responsibility in the hope of avoiding policy discussions on regime change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We analyze a range of future scenarios for Russia related to the Ukraine War. Although regime change is a publicly-stated objective for several leaders of NATO countries, we find very little prospect for it. The Russian economy has largely evaded the effects of the sanctions. Despite enormous casualties and incompetence in the management of the war, both Putin and the war remain popular with the Russian public. Contrary to most analysis to date, the Wagner Group mutiny of June 2023 is not an indication of Putin’s weakness, but his strength. The coercive mechanisms of the Russian state remain intact. Indeed, they have grown stronger. Finally, there is little to no prospect for the emergence of a significant antiwar movement. Regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, Putin is likely to remain in power. Western leaders should begin to grapple with this unpleasant reality and its policy implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The COVID-19 pandemic has posed a major challenge not only to the effectiveness of health crisis management by national governments but also to the democratic functioning of states. This article describes how the institutional guarantees of the democratic exercise of power in Hungary malfunctioned. The operation of Parliament and local self-governments as representative bodies, the Constitutional Court, the Ombudsperson, and the courts as control-and judicial-type institutions will be analysed vis-à-vis the Hungarian Government's action. The study thus aims to reveal how the systematic challenges and diminishing role of local selfgovernments in collaborative crisis management are not an outstanding and isolated problem, but part of the systematic autocratic regime change in Hungary accelerated by the COVID-19- related special legal order. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study the intraday relationship between novel Euro-specific news and the EURUSD exchange rate with over 100 million news articles with millisecond precision. We show a predictive but not contemporaneous relationship between these news and their sentiment and EURUSD returns. This lends support to the slow information diffusion hypothesis as well as rational inattention to new news theories. Furthermore, we identify a regime change in the relationship between news and the EURUSD returns since the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). The positive relationship observed since the GFC between news sentiment and the EURUSD was particularly prominent during the Eurozone debt crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prominent theories propose that commitment problems drive phenomena such as war and democratization. However, existing work disagrees about a basic question: how does a challenger's coercive strength affect prospects for conflict and/or institutional reform? We establish that the relationship depends on how challenger strength affects the average and maximum probability of winning a conflict in a given period ("threat"). We analyze a formal model with a general distribution of threats, and conceptualize challenger strength as affecting this distribution. If the maximum threat is fixed and stronger challengers pose a higher average threat, then weak challengers will rebel (absent reform) during the rare periods they pose a high threat. However, if stronger challengers pose a greater maximum threat, then they are harder to buy off. Applying these insights advances theoretical and empirical debates about democratization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the Impact of Exchange Rate Regime Change on Non-oil Export in Nigeria from 1985Q1 - 2018Q4. The paper employs Markov Regime-Switching Approach to capture the exchange rate regime change. Results of the study reveal that exchange rate regimes have a positive and statistically significant impact on the non-oil export in Nigeria. The results also show that the degree of the impact in the two regimes are not the same, it is higher in regime 2. This is as a result of the fact that prior to the 1980s; Nigeria adopted the fixed exchange rate regime which does not allow for domestic currency devaluation hence, the relatively low non-oil export. However, in the 1980s, especially at the introduction of the structural adjustment programme of the 1986 which saw most economies of the world switch over to the floating exchange rates regime, the Naira is often time devalued and hence the higher increase in the non-oil exports. Therefore, the study recommends that there is need to achieve a stable exchange rate that when combined with the export-oriented policy will promote non-oil exports in Nigeria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political geographers and sociologists working in the field of critical toponymies have demonstrated that renaming the streetscape follows invariably after a regime change. Scholars have barely gone beyond documenting the extent of toponymic change at the level of particular places, however, usually the capital cities of countries from the former socialist bloc and other postdictatorial societies. This article sets out to address toponymic changes at the country level, by examining the complete national street nomenclature in postsocialist urban Romania. For this purpose, a data set comprising the entire collection of urban street names in Romania, together with all the street name changes that occurred during postsocialism, was constructed from multiple sources (N = 37,076). A series of multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to model statistically the effects of various street- and locality-level variables on postsocialist street renaming. The results of these multilevel logistic regression analyses indicate that toponymic revision after the fall of state socialism is shaped by the intersection of street-level properties (e.g., artery class and features regarding the street name itself) and locality-level characteristics (e.g., the historicity of urban status and the ethnopolitics played out at the level of each city and town). The article is the first to analyze the shifting political geography of urban nomenclatures at a national level based on a complete data set of street names. The analytical model advanced in this article, based on postsocialist Romania, could be used to inform similar research on other geographical settings and historical contexts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Weimar Republic from 1918 to 1933 is considered as an independent period in which a democracy was established after World War I. The author analyzes the different phases of the republic and discusses important events such as the Kapp-Lüttwitz Putsch and the Great Depression. The Social Democratic Party (SPD) played an important role as the carrier of democracy, while the split in the labor movement favored the rise of the Nazi Party (NSDAP). The Weimar Republic ultimately became a victim of an anti-republican movement that paved the way for dictatorship. The text also deals with the political history of Hesse during this time and emphasizes the political stability of the state in contrast to Bavaria. The SPD dominated the political landscape in Hesse, while the NSDAP received more support compared to the rest of the Reich. The text also addresses other aspects of the Weimar Republic, such as the changing position of women, regime changes in Bavaria, Württemberg, and Baden, and successes in literature and housing construction. The economy of the Weimar Republic was efficient but not as successful compared to other European countries. Agriculture and rural businesses struggled during this time, leading to political conflicts. [Extracted from the article]

• The paper estimates the effect of changes in the wage share on the growth rate of the US economy for the period 1947–2019. • We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for continuous changes in the regime over time. This is the first paper that has attempted to do this. • We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since. In the last fifteen years of our sample the effect of changes in distribution on economic activity is statistically insignificant. This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947–2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for continuous changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) will remain constant over time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since. In the last fifteen years of our sample the effect of changes in distribution on economic activity is statistically insignificant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The behaviour of football fans in Ukraine has often taken the form of public order offences. However, since Maidan, fans have enjoyed a more positive image, linked to their recognition by and assimilation into Ukrainian society through their social and political activities. Eventually becoming one of the driving forces of revolutionary events and contributing to regime change, football fans have taken an active part in hostilities in the east of the country since 2014. This article explores the links between football fans, their collective violent practices and their social transformation before Maidan, at the time of Maidan and in the post-Maidan period. The author presents the idea of the connection between the conversion of various types of capital and the application of different kinds of collective violent practices, which can affect the status of the group within society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Political scientists distinguish between governments and regimes. A government is comprised of incumbents holding positions of authority specified within an institutionalized “regime,” that is, a legal order. Within a well-institutionalized regime, politics consists of legal struggles over what governments and government officials do. But when the issues in contention pertain to what governments are authorized to do, and not about what they should do, competitors may no longer feel bound to follow the rules. Such struggles can threaten the integrity of the regime. This article suggests that the prolonged, if temporarily sidelined, crisis over the overhaul of the Israeli judiciary should be understood less as a threat to democracy than as both a challenge to the Israeli regime’s remaining liberal features and as an early skirmish in what will be a long political war over whether and how to emancipate millions of noncitizen Palestinian Arabs living in effectively annexed territories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The proposal introduced in January 2023 for a ‘judicial overhaul’ in Israel has been characterized as a seismic event. Labeled a ‘reform’ by supporters and a ‘coup’ by skeptics, the proposal is better understood as part of a long process rather than a sudden event. This process involves gradual but persistent executive aggrandizement advanced by weakening multiple institutions of horizontal accountability and the media, alongside the imposition of restrictions on oppositional organizational capacity. Accordingly, the process should be defined in terms of autocratization. The spokes analogy is invoked to highlight the interconnectedness between the various realms that collectively underpin the regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the European Commission's 'Banking Package', introducing a series of amendments to the key legal sources of EU banking regulation, a comprehensive proposal for the treatment of third country branches of credit institutions (i.e., branches of institutions licensed by non-EU jurisdictions seeking authorisation in an EU Member State) has been presented. If and when ultimately adopted, this new framework will, for the first time, harmonise the applicable authorisation procedures and substantive conditions for authorisation hitherto left exclusively to the discretion of EU Member States. Under the new regime, the equivalence of third country regulatory and supervisory approaches with EU banking regulation will play a role, albeit a limited one. While taking up, and refining, approaches that have been present in a range of Member States for some time already, the new framework will require others to fundamentally change their existing regimes. The new amendments will be of particular relevance for the future regulatory relationship between the United Kingdom and the European Union, since a bespoke arrangement for continuing access of UK financial intermediaries to the EU markets has not been achieved, and UK credit institutions wishing to continue to operate within the EU other than through legally separate and independently capitalised subsidiaries have to rely on authorisations as third country branches. Against this backdrop, the present paper presents a functional analysis of the incoming regime in light of experiences made with regard to the existing landscape of diverging national laws. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Since the time of classical economists, investment decisions hold centre stage in economic theory. In this article, we integrate classical economists' perspectives on the determinants of investment with the Keynesian theory of effective demand. For this purpose, we employ variables to capture the effects of profitability, the state of demand, and the financial and risk conditions using time series data from 17 major OECD economies spanning the 1960–2017 period. Two are the salient features of our article: The first is the use as profitability variables, the marginal efficiency of capital or the incremental rate of return, and the second is the use of regime changes and respective threshold values for these two key variables. The econometric results show that the profitability variables are decisive in shaping investment decisions and designating phase changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

What explains popular support for military dictatorship? Existing literature on democratic breakdowns focuses on addressing support for democratic collapse but not subsequent authoritarian regime. This article explores pro-dictatorship sentiment before and during the military dictatorship in Thailand. It uses social media data to analyze support for the antidemocratic mobilization of the People's Democratic Reform Committee (PDRC) and the subsequent military dictatorship, which lasted from 2014 to 2019. It argues that support for military dictatorship prior to and after regime installment was qualitatively different both in sentiment and type of support. Prior to the coup, pro-dictatorship support was unified by antigovernment sentiment, while following the coup pro-regime support was contingent upon policy preferences of different groups. These findings fill a gap in the literature on regime change, which tends to be focused on explaining support for democratic collapse and remains silent on this support in its aftermath. This study may present the first-ever evidence of pro-dictatorship support following a collapse of democracy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While revolutionary regimes may be durable in the long run, they are weak when they first come into power, but their particular weaknesses depend especially on whether the old regime security apparatus has been fully defeated, or if elements of it defected and persist in the new state. I argue that where old regime security forces persist, the new regime will focus on coup-proofing, leaving itself vulnerable to insurgent or foreign threats. Where the old regime’s security forces are defeated or disintegrate but armed domestic rivals remain, revolutionaries will focus on defeating them, potentially neglecting external threats. Absent both old regime forces and armed domestic rivals, revolutionaries will focus heavily on external threats, neglecting possible domestic threats. I develop this theory through interview and archive-based comparative case studies of Nicaragua, where the old regime military dissolved, and Iran, where it remained largely intact. Nicaragua’s revolutionaries emphasized foreign defense, while the Iranian regime worried primarily about coups and then domestic rebels, with military effectiveness suffering in both cases in their first several years in power. Externally focused Nicaragua allowed insurgencies to take root, while Iran’s coup-proofing revolutionary regime was only saved by invading Iraqi forces’ hesitancy. Both regimes eventually corrected their initial missteps, but their decision-making reinforces the importance of old regime security forces’ status in revolutionary transitions and that the period of early weakness is when international engagement can have the greatest impact on new revolutionary regimes.

The rapid transformation of the current world order excites renewed interest of the expert community in the phenomenon of empire (as a form of the organization of political life). And since the United States plays a central role in this transformation, the history of the Pax Americana, its formation and development, both at the level of the idea and in the field of real politics is of particular relevance. The author argues that clarification of the role and significance of the colonial background in the projection of US military-political power in the late 19th — early 21st centuries allows for better understanding of the theory and practice of international relations both in the era of ‘high imperialism’ and world wars of the 20th century, and in the context of transition from global colonial empires to nuclear superpowers. It may also be instrumental in addressing the deepening contradictions between advocates of a ‘global leadership’ concept and proponents of a multipolar world during the post-Cold War period. In this regard, the paper examines the works of the US military theorists of the late 19th − first half of the 20th centuries that focused on the colonial experience of the leading European powers, as well as the experience gained from interventions involving the US Army and Marine Corps. Special emphasis is given to the concept of ‘small wars’. Building on a wide array of primary sources, presented both by the works of military experts, direct participants in various counterinsurgency operations in the colonies, as well as by the teaching materials and field manuals of the US Marine Corps, the author traces the evolution of this concept which implied establishment of external management and/or control through military and police measures. This allows the author to restore the historical genealogy of current models of internal security promoted in American foreign policy in conditions of proliferating, protracted, and increasingly hybrid civil conflicts. The author concludes that in the interwar period the US law enforcement agencies pragmatically implemented the relevant experience of global empires in Latin American countries within the framework of the Monroe Doctrine, while regarding European powers as political rivals. It is noted that conflicting imperatives of asymmetric and conventional threats to US national security urge researchers and practitioners to revisit after a post-Vietnam period of neglect the approaches of colonial empires to the conduct of small wars and to adapt them to modern conditions. The findings broaden the understanding of the modern leading powers’ approaches to internal security models transfer, as well as of its limits.