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The goal of this thesis is to design stable portfolios that protect an investor from severe drawdowns in financial markets as they have occurred during market crises in the last decades. For that two new mathematical concepts are introduced. First, a new approach for the Bayesian change point (BCP) algorithm is presented that does not only react on changes within the trend but also the variance of the data under consideration. For the prior distributions the data input is assumed to follow a normal distribution and the mean of the data is assumed to follow a normal distribution as well. In comparison to already existing implementations the variance is modelled using a generalized inverse Gaussian (GIG) distribution (the N-NGIG model). The posterior distributions are derived analytically and combined with the product partition model (PPM) to infer on the unknown mean and variance by taking into consideration possible changes within the underlying dynamics. Second, geometric shape factors (GSF) as a novel approach on examining the state of a multivariate investment universe are presented. They are obtained by describing the investment universe as an image of the feasible set. The GSF are defined to be the area, centre, orientation and eccentricity of that image. This provides us with information about the optimization benefit (area), the expected performance per unit of risk (centre), the direction of the risk premium (orientation) and the correlation between risk and performance (eccentricity) of the investment universe. As such the GSF are readily understandable and useable in a portfolio optimization context. Additionally, it is shown how the BCP algorithm can be used to calculate the covariance matrix of the investment universe in order to calculate the GSF such that they do also respect changes within the underlying dynamics. These concepts are the building blocks for the design of the stable portfolios that are presented within the last part of the thesis. For equities the BCP algorithm is used to design a dynamically hedged signal portfolio. For non-equities the orientation of the GSF is used to design a dynamically optimized portfolio that adjusts its objectives based on the direction of the risk premium. Finally, a combination of these two portfolios is presented in order to outline a generic concept to manage real-world investment portfolios.

Accurate and timely maps are a vital resource in contemporary disaster and crisis management. Maps are essential for identifying vulnerabilities, monitoring the effects of disasters and organizing countermeasures. Traditionally, the mapping of crises was the exclusive domain of experts, including cartographers and crisis management professionals. But with the growing availability of participatory information and communications technology, this monopoly is disappearing. Recent disasters have witnessed a new generation of online maps, created by civil society actors and relying on volunteers to collect, organize, verify, visualize, and share geo-referenced information. To address the emerging phenomenon of crisis mapping with a particular focus on the Swiss context, the Center for Security Studies (CSS) at the ETH Zürich, the Swiss Federal Office for Civil Protection (BABS,) and the Institute of Geomatics Engineering at the University of Applied Sciences and Arts Northwestern Switzerland (FHNW) jointly organized an expert workshop. The event was conducted at the Center for Security Studies in Zürich on 5 September 2013. As the discussion showed, realizing the potential of crowdsourced crisis mapping for professional disaster and crisis management remains a challenge on many levels, including technical as well as social and political issues. In order to overcome these challenges, it will be particularly important to improve the coordination of the different social actors to develop joint strategies to integrate crisis mapping into prevention and response processes in crisis and disaster management.

ISBN:978-3-906031-53-8

CRN Reports

CRN Handbooks, ISBN:3-905696-18-5

Construction for development, Proceedings of CIB World Building Congress 2007

Construction for development, CIB World Building Congress 2007

Construction for development, CIB World Building Congress 2007

Ingegneria economico-gestionale, 39, Construction in the XXI century, ISBN:88-495-1339-9

ISBN:3-906483-10-X, ISBN:978-3-906483-10-8

Collaboration and harmonization in creative systems, 3rd International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference ISEC-03

Collaboration and harmonization in creative systems, Collaboration and Harmonization in Creative Systems : Proceedings of 3rd International Structural Engineering and Construction Conference ISEC-03, ISBN:0-415-39037-0

Advancing Engineering, Management and Technology