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Introduction Demonstrating human papillomavirus vaccine impact is critical for informing guidelines to increase vaccination and decrease human papillomavirus‒related outcomes, particularly in states with suboptimal vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee. This study examines the trends in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among Tennessee Medicaid-enrolled women aged 18–39 years and the subset of women who were screened for cervical cancer. Methods Using a validated claims-based model to identify incident cervical intraepithelial neoplasia Grades 2 or 3 or adenocarcinoma in situ events, annual age group‒specific incidence rates from Tennessee Medicaid billing data, 2008–2018, were calculated. Significant trends were determined by Joinpoint. Analyses were conducted in 2020. Results From 2008 to 2018, high-grade cervical lesion incidence significantly declined in women aged 18–20 years (average annual percentage change= −31.9, 95% CI= −38.6, −24.6), 21–24 years (average annual percentage change= −12.9, 95% CI= −22.3, −2.4), and 25–29 years (average annual percentage change= −6.4, 95% CI= −8.1, −4.6). Among screened women, rates significantly declined for ages 18–20 years (average annual percentage change= −20.3, 95% CI= −25.3, −15.0), 21–24 years (average annual percentage change= −10.2, 95% CI= −12.6, −7.8), and 25–29 years (average annual percentage change= −2.6, 95% CI= −3.9, −1.2). Trends from 2008 to 2018 were stable for older age groups (30–34 and 35–39 years). Conclusions Results show reductions in high-grade cervical lesion incidence among ages most likely to have benefited from the human papillomavirus vaccine. Declines among young, screened women suggest causes other than reduction in screening. Evidence of vaccine impact in populations with low-vaccination coverage, such as Tennessee, is promising.

Disparities in human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination exist between urban (metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs)) and rural (non-MSAs) regions. To address whether the HPV vaccine’s impact differs by urbanicity, we examined trends in cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grades 2 or 3 and adenocarcinoma in situ (collectively, CIN2+) incidence in MSAs and non-MSAs among Tennessee Medicaid (TennCare)-enrolled women aged 18–39 years and among the subset screened for cervical cancer in Tennessee, United States. Using TennCare claims data, we identified annual age-group-specific (18–20, 21–24, 25–29, 30–34, and 35–39 years) CIN2+ incidence (2008–2018). Joinpoint regression was used to identify trends over time. Age–period–cohort Poisson regression models were used to evaluate age, period, and cohort effects. All analyses were stratified by urbanicity (MSA versus non-MSA). From 2008–2018, 11,243 incident CIN2+ events (7956 in MSAs, 3287 in non-MSAs) were identified among TennCare-enrolled women aged 18–39 years. CIN2+ incident trends (2008–2018) were similar between women in MSAs and non-MSAs, with largest declines among ages 18–20 (MSA average annual percent change (AAPC): −30.4, 95% confidence interval (95%CI): −35.4, −25.0, non-MSA AAPC: −30.9, 95%CI: −36.8, −24.5) and 21–24 years (MSA AAPC: −14.8, 95%CI: −18.1, −11.3, non-MSA AAPC: −15.1, 95%CI: −17.9, −12.2). Significant declines for ages 18–20 years began in 2008 in MSAs compared to 2010 in non-MSAs. Trends were largely driven by age and cohort effects. These patterns were consistent among screened women. Despite evidence of HPV vaccine impact on reducing CIN2+ incidence regardless of urbanicity, significant declines in CIN2+ incidence were delayed in non-MSAs versus MSAs.

OBJECTIVES/GOALS: We compared the validity of an International Classification of Diseases, Clinical Modification (ICD) algorithm for identifying high-grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and adenocarcinoma in situ (together referred to as CIN2+) from ICD 9th revision (ICD-9) and 10th revision (ICD-10) codes. METHODS/STUDY POPULATION: Using Tennessee Medicaid data, we identified cervical diagnostic procedures in 2008-2017 among females aged 18-39 years in Davidson County, TN. Gold-standard cases were pathology-confirmed CIN2+ diagnoses validated by HPV-IMPACT, a population-based surveillance project in catchment areas of five US states. Procedures in the ICD transition year (2015) were excluded to account for implementation lag. We pre-grouped diagnosis and procedure codes by theme. We performed feature selection using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) logistic regression with 10-fold cross validation and validated models by ICD-9 era (2008-2014, N = 6594) and ICD-10 era (2016-2017, N = 1270). RESULTS/ANTICIPATED RESULTS: Of 7864 cervical diagnostic procedures, 880 (11%) were true CIN2+ cases. LASSO logistic regression selected the strongest features of case status: Having codes for a CIN2+ tissue diagnosis, non-specific CIN tissue diagnosis, high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesion, receiving a cervical treatment procedure, and receiving a cervical/vaginal biopsy. Features of non-case status were codes for a CIN1 tissue diagnosis, Pap test, and HPV DNA test. The ICD-9 vs ICD-10 algorithms predicted case status with 68% vs 63% sensitivity, 95% vs 94% specificity, 63% vs 64% positive predictive value, 96% vs 94% negative predictive value, 92% vs 89% accuracy, and C-indices of 0.95 vs 0.92, respectively. DISCUSSION/SIGNIFICANCE OF IMPACT: Overall, the algorithm’s validity for identifying CIN2+ case status was similar between coding versions. ICD-9 had slightly better discriminative ability. Results support a prior study concluding that ICD-10 implementation has not substantially improved the quality of administrative data from ICD-9.