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2. Adapting COVID-19 Contact Tracing Protocols to Accommodate Resource Constraints, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA, 2021

Author

Jeon, Seonghye, Watson-Lewis, Lydia, Rainisch, Gabriel, Chiu, Chu- Chuan, Castonguay, Francois M., Fischer, Leah S., Moonan, Patrick K., Oeltmann, John E., Adhikari, Bishwa B., Lawman, Hannah, and Meltzer, Martin I.

Subjects
Philadelphia, Pennsylvania -- Health policy, Control, Health policy, Methods, Epidemics -- Control -- United States, COVID-19 -- Control, Contact tracing -- Methods
Abstract

Case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) were among the primary nonpharmaceutical interventions for COVID-19 before vaccines became widely available. Previous studies estimated that CICT played an important role in mitigating [...]

Published
2024
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3. A dynamic modeling tool for estimating healthcare demand from the COVID19 epidemic and evaluating population-wide interventions

Author

Rainisch, Gabriel, Undurraga, Eduardo A., and Chowell, Gerardo

Subjects
Quantitative Biology - Populations and Evolution
Abstract

Objectives. Public health officials need tools to assist with anticipating the healthcare resources required to confront the SARS-COV-2 pandemic. We built a modeling tool to aid practicing public health officials with estimating healthcare demand from the pandemic in their jurisdictions and to evaluate the potential impacts of population-wide social-distancing interventions. Methods. The tool uses a SEIR compartmental model to project the local spread of the pandemic. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies to evaluate. Outputs include the number of infections and deaths with and without intervention, and the demand for hospital and critical care beds and ventilators relative to existing capacity. We illustrate the tool using data from three regions of Chile. Results. Our scenarios indicate a surge in COVID-19 patients could overwhelm Chilean hospitals by June, peaking in July or August at 6 to 50 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home quarantine, social distancing of individuals greater than 70 years, and telework interventions may keep treatment demand below capacity. Conclusions. Aggressive interventions can avert substantial morbidity and mortality from COVID-19. Our tool permits rapid evaluation of locally-applicable policy scenarios and updating of results as new data become available., Comment: 20 pages, 3 figures. The model is available for download in English and Spanish versions. The English version is available at https://publichealth.gsu.edu/files/2020/04/Supplementary-Material-S1_Model-v1.0.xlsx The Spanish version is available at https://publichealth.gsu.edu/files/2020/05/SupplMatS1_Model_Espanol_v1.0.xlsx

Published
2020

5. Estimated Cases Averted by COVID-19 Digital Exposure Notification, Pennsylvania, USA, November 8, 2020-January 2, 2021

Author

Jeon, Seonghye, Rainisch, Gabriel, Harris, A-Mac, Shinabery, Jared, Iqbal, Muneeza, Pallavaram, Amar, Hilton, Stacy, Karki, Saugat, Moonan, Patrick K., Oeltmann, John E., and Meltzer, Martin I.

Subjects
Pennsylvania -- Health aspects, Control, Statistics, Usage, Methods, Health aspects, Smart phone, Mathematical models -- Usage, Epidemics -- Statistics -- Control -- United States, COVID-19 -- Statistics -- Control, Contact tracing -- Methods, Smart phones -- Usage -- Health aspects
Abstract

Case investigation and contact tracing (CICT) was a pillar among COVID-19 prevention strategies, especially before vaccine availability (1,2). However, standard CICT relies on staff to reach cases and close contacts, [...]

Published
2023
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6. Trends in Number and Distribution of COVID-19 Hotspot Counties — United States, March 8–July 15, 2020

Author

Oster, Alexandra M., Kang, Gloria J., Cha, Amy E., Beresovsky, Vladislav, Rose, Charles E., Rainisch, Gabriel, Porter, Laura, Valverde, Eduardo E., Peterson, Elisha B., Driscoll, Anne K., Norris, Tina, Wilson, Nana, Ritchey, Matthew, Walke, Henry T., Rose, Dale A., Oussayef, Nadia L., Parise, Monica E., Moore, Zack S., Fleischauer, Aaron T., Honein, Margaret A., Dirlikov, Emilio, and Villanueva, Julie

Published
2020

7. Disparities in Incidence of COVID-19 Among Underrepresented Racial/Ethnic Groups in Counties Identified as Hotspots During June 5–18, 2020 — 22 States, February–June 2020

Author

State, Tribal, Local, and Territorial Response Team, Moore, Jazmyn T., Ricaldi, Jessica N., Rose, Charles E., Fuld, Jennifer, Parise, Monica, Kang, Gloria J., Driscoll, Anne K., Norris, Tina, Wilson, Nana, Rainisch, Gabriel, Valverde, Eduardo, Beresovsky, Vladislav, Brune, Christine Agnew, Oussayef, Nadia L., Rose, Dale A., Adams, Laura E., Awel, Sindoos, Villanueva, Julie, Meaney-Delman, Dana, and Honein, Margaret A.

Published
2020

9. Building a Simple Model to Assess the Impact of Case Investigation and Contact Tracing for Sexually Transmitted Diseases: Lessons from COVID-19

Author

Castonguay, François M., primary, Chesson, Harrell W., additional, Jeon, Seonghye, additional, Rainisch, Gabriel, additional, Fischer, Leah S., additional, Adhikari, Biswha B., additional, Kahn, Emily B., additional, Greening, Bradford, additional, Gift, Thomas L., additional, and Meltzer, Martin I., additional

Published
2023
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10. Modeling the Impact of Sexual Networks in the Transmission of Monkeypox virus Among Gay, Bisexual, and Other Men Who Have Sex With Men--United States, 2022

Author

Spicknall, Ian H., Pollock, Emily D., Clay, Patrick A., Oster, Alexandra M., Charniga, Kelly, Masters, Nina, Nakazawa, Yoshinori J., Rainisch, Gabriel, Gundlapalli, Adi V., and Gift, Thomas L.

Subjects
Analysis, Models, Sexual behavior, Surveys, Sexual behavior -- Surveys -- Analysis -- Models, Bisexuals -- Sexual behavior -- Surveys, Mpox -- Models -- Analysis -- Surveys, Human monkeypox -- Models -- Analysis -- Surveys, Sex -- Surveys -- Analysis -- Models
Abstract

On August 26, 2022, this report was posted as an MMWR Early Release on the MMWR website (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr). Transmission of Monkeypox virus (MPXV) during the 2022 multinational monkeypox outbreak has [...]

Published
2022

12. Modeling tool for decision support during early days of an anthrax event

Author

Rainisch, Gabriel, Meltzer, Martin I., Shadomy, Sean, Bower, William A., and Hupert, Nathaniel

Subjects
Care and treatment, Usage, Case studies, Anthrax -- Care and treatment -- Case studies, Inhalers -- Usage
Abstract

Population exposure to aerosolized Bacillus anthracis spores is one of the most potentially catastrophic public health emergencies (1). The 2001 US anthrax attack, in which inhalation anthrax (IA) affected 11 [...]

Published
2017
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13. Regional spread of Ebola virus, West Africa, 2014

Author

Rainisch, Gabriel, Shankar, Manjunath, Wellman, Michael, Merlin, Toby, and Meltzer, Martin I.

Subjects
Distribution, Research, Causes of, Company distribution practices, Ebola hemorrhagic fever -- Causes of -- Distribution -- Research, Ebola virus infections -- Causes of -- Distribution -- Research
Abstract

The first cases of the 2014 Ebola epidemic in West Africa (49 cases in Guinea) were reported on March 21 (1). By November 4, the World Health Organization had reported [...]

Published
2015

14. Estimated COVID-19 Cases and Hospitalizations Averted by Case Investigation and Contact Tracing in the US

Author

Rainisch, Gabriel, primary, Jeon, Seonghye, additional, Pappas, Danielle, additional, Spencer, Kimberly D., additional, Fischer, Leah S., additional, Adhikari, Bishwa B., additional, Taylor, Melanie M., additional, Greening, Bradford, additional, Moonan, Patrick K., additional, Oeltmann, John E., additional, Kahn, Emily B., additional, Washington, Michael L., additional, and Meltzer, Martin I., additional

Published
2022
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15. Disparities in Incidence of COVID-19 Among Underrepresented Racial/Ethnic Groups in Counties Identified as Hotspots During June 5-18, 2020--22 States, February-June 2020

Author

Moore, Jazmyn T., Ricaldi, Jessica N., Rose, Charles E., Fuld, Jennifer, Parise, Monica, Kang, Gloria J., Driscoll, Anne K., Norris, Tina, Wilson, Nana, Rainisch, Gabriel, Valverde, Eduardo, Beresovsky, Vladislav, Brune, Christine Agnew, Oussayef, Nadia L., Rose, Dale A., Adams, Laura E., Awel, Sindoos, Villanueva, Julie, Meaney-Delman, Dana, and Honein, Margaret A.

Subjects
United States. Department of Health and Human Services, Health aspects, Coronaviruses -- Health aspects, Medical research -- Health aspects, COVID-19 -- Health aspects
Abstract

On August 14, 2020, this report was posted as an MMWR Early Release on the MMWR website (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr). During January 1, 2020-August 10, 2020, an estimated 5 million cases of [...]

Published
2020

16. COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations averted by case investigation and contact tracing in the United States

Author

Rainisch, Gabriel, primary, Jeon, Seonghye, additional, Pappas, Danielle, additional, Spencer, Kimberly D., additional, Fischer, Leah S., additional, Adhikari, Bishwa B., additional, Taylor, Melanie M., additional, Greening, Bradford, additional, Moonan, Patrick K., additional, Oeltmann, John E., additional, Kahn, Emily B., additional, Washington, Michael L., additional, and Meltzer, Martin I., additional

Published
2021
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21. Mathematical Modeling to Support Public Health Officials with Evaluating Immunization and Non-pharmaceutical Intervention Strategies During and Outside Periods of Outbreak Response

Author

Rainisch, Gabriel

Subjects
RSV, immunization, COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions, contact tracing, modeling
Abstract

A growing number of public health officials rely on mathematical modeling to aid in making decisions, especially during outbreak responses. Math models simulate health phenomenon with equations and are useful for forecasting a disease’s progression in a population and evaluating the potential effects of interventions. We generated three models to aid practicing health officials with addressing real-world issues. The first model estimates the impact of immunization strategies on RSV-associated lower respiratory tract infections (LRTIs) among infants Our second model creates projections of healthcare demand during the early phase of the COVID19 pandemic and evaluates the impacts of social-distancing interventions. Users input case counts, healthcare resources, and select intervention strategies. Using data from Chile, we illustrated the tool as the pandemic unfolded there in April 2020. Our scenarios indicated COVID19 patients could overwhelm hospitals by June 2020, peaking in July or August at more than 6 times the current supply of beds and ventilators. A lockdown strategy or combination of case isolation, home-quarantine, social distancing individuals >70 years, and telework interventions could keep treatment demand below capacity. Our third model estimated the impact of COVID19 case investigation and contact tracing programs (CICT) in the US. By inputting CICT program data from 23 jurisdictions into our model we estimated CICT averted between 1.1 to 1.4 million cases over 60 days during the pandemic’s first winter peak. Our upper estimate assumes all interviewed cases and monitored contacts complied with isolation and quarantine guidelines, while the lower estimate assumes fractions of interviewed cases and contacts did so. These results suggest CICT programs played a critical role in curtailing the pandemic.

Published
2024

22. Modeling in Real Time During the Ebola Response

Author

Meltzer, Martin I., primary, Santibanez, Scott, additional, Fischer, Leah S., additional, Merlin, Toby L., additional, Adhikari, Bishwa B., additional, Atkins, Charisma Y., additional, Campbell, Caresse, additional, Fung, Isaac Chun-Hai, additional, Gambhir, Manoj, additional, Gift, Thomas, additional, Greening, Bradford, additional, Gu, Weidong, additional, Jacobson, Evin U., additional, Kahn, Emily B., additional, Carias, Cristina, additional, Nerlander, Lina, additional, Rainisch, Gabriel, additional, Shankar, Manjunath, additional, Wong, Karen, additional, and Washington, Michael L., additional

Published
2016
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23. Estimating Ebola Treatment Needs, United States

Author

Rainisch, Gabriel, primary, Asher, Jason, additional, George, Dylan, additional, Clay, Matt, additional, Smith, Theresa L., additional, Kosmos, Christine, additional, Shankar, Manjunath, additional, Washington, Michael L., additional, Gambhir, Manoj, additional, Atkins, Charisma, additional, Hatchett, Richard, additional, Lant, Tim, additional, and Meltzer, Martin I., additional

Published
2015
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