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Abstract The United Nations has declared 2021–2030 the decade on ecosystem restoration with the aim of preventing, stopping and reversing the degradation of the ecosystems of the world, often caused by the fragmentation of natural landscapes. Human activities separate and surround habitats, making them too small to sustain viable animal populations or too far apart to enable foraging and gene flow. Despite the need for strategies to solve fragmentation, it remains unclear how to efficiently reconnect nature. In this paper, we illustrate the potential of deep reinforcement learning (DRL) to tackle the spatial optimisation aspect of connectivity conservation planning. The propensity of spatial optimisation problems to explode in complexity depending on the number of input variables and their states is and will continue to be one of its most serious obstacles. DRL is an emerging class of methods focused on training deep neural networks to solve decision‐making tasks and has been used to learn good heuristics for complex optimisation problems. While the potential of DRL to optimise conservation decisions seems huge, only few examples of its application exist. We applied DRL to two real‐world raster datasets in a connectivity planning setting, targeting graph‐based connectivity indices for optimisation. We show that DRL converges to the known optimums in a small example where the objective is the overall improvement of the Integral Index of Connectivity and the only constraint is the budget. We also show that DRL approximates high‐quality solutions on a large example with additional cost and spatial configuration constraints where the more complex Probability of Connectivity Index is targeted. To the best of our knowledge, there is no software that can target this index for optimisation on raster data of this size. DRL can be used to approximate good solutions in complex spatial optimisation problems even when the conservation feature is non‐linear like graph‐based indices. Furthermore, our methodology decouples the optimisation process and the index calculation, so it can potentially target any other conservation feature implemented in current or future software.

Geospatial data are fundamental in most global-change and sustainability-related domains. However, readily accessible information on data quality and provenance is often missing or hardly accessible for users due to technical or perceptual barriers, for example, due to unstructured metadata information or missing references. Within an interdisciplinary process encompassing perspectives of data users, data producers, and software developers, we identified major needs to facilitate effective fitness-for-use assessments by data users and developed approaches to address these. We provided a stylized analysis of large-scale land use data to showcase selected approaches. To support data users, interoperable quality and provenance information need to be meaningfully represented. Data producers need efficient workflows and tools supporting them in creating high-quality, structured and detailed quality and provenance information. Our newly developed approaches to increase the availability of structured metadata synthesize new and existing tools to extract metadata or to generate provenance data during processing. Within our approaches to improve interoperability and accessibility we present novel tools to support (i) the creation of curated and linked registers of data quality indicators and thematic terms, and (ii) linked visualization of data quality and provenance information. Following our approaches increases transparency, facilitates fitness-for-use assessments, and ultimately improves research quality.

We here present a database of evidence on the impact of agricultural management practices on biodiversity and yield. This database is the result of a systematic literature review, that aimed to identify meta-analyses that use as their response variables any measure of biodiversity and yield. After screening more than 1,086 titles and abstracts, we identified 33 relevant meta-analyses, from which we extracted the overall estimates, the subgroup estimates as well as all information related to them (effect size metric, taxonomic group, crop type etc.). We also extracted information relative to the empirical studies used for each meta-analysis and recorded the countries in which they took place and assessed the quality of each meta-analysis. Our dataset is publicly accessible and can be used for conducting second-order meta-analyses on the effect of management measures on species richness, taxon abundance, biomass and yields. It can also be used to create evidence maps on agriculture-related questions.

Conventional agriculture is frequently associated with large-scale environmental degradation and landscape homogenization. In contrast, ecological intensification incorporates natural habitat conservation and landscape complexity to improve important ecosystem services such as pollination and crop yields. In an observational study of 105 fields in the Argentinean Pampas Region, we explored whether sunflower yields were related to landscape composition (percentage of natural habitat) and configuration (field size and edge density), and covariates of agricultural management practices such as nitrogen fertilizer addition, seed density, sowing date and crop cultivar. Our mixed-effects models revealed that field size and edge densities between crop and natural habitat are important predictors of yield. For example, a doubling of edge density from 40 m/ha to 80 m/ha predicted an 11.3% (269 kg/ha) yield increase, while a doubling in the field size from 40 ha to 80 ha predicted a 6.1% (149 kg/ha) yield decrease. We suggest that pollination is an important driver of both effects as higher edge densities and smaller field sizes reduce wild pollinator flight distances to crop flowers and thus increases the chances for effective crop pollination. This study provides key information for sustainable management of sunflower agroecosystems.

Summary: Pathways to eradicate global hunger while bending the curve of biodiversity loss unanimously suggest changing to less energy-rich diets, closing yield gaps through agroecological principles, adopting modern breeding technologies to foster stress resilience and yields, as well as minimizing harvest losses and food waste. Against the background of a brief history of global agriculture, we review the available evidence on how the global food system might look given a global temperature increase by 3°. We show that a moderate gain in the area suitable for agriculture is confronted with substantial yield losses through strains on crop physiology, multitrophic interactions, and more frequent extreme events. Self-amplifying feedback are unresolved and might lead to further losses. In light of these uncertainties, we see that complexity is underestimated and more systemic research is needed. Efficiency gains in agriculture, albeit indispensable, will not be enough to achieve food security under severe climate change.

Abstract Nature's non‐material contributions to people are difficult to quantify and one aspect in particular, nature's contributions to communication (NCC), has so far been neglected. Recent advances in automated language processing tools enable us to quantify diversity patterns underlying the distribution of plant and animal taxon labels in creative literature, which we term BiL (biodiversity in literature). We assume BiL to provide a proxy for people's openness to nature's non‐material contributions enhancing our understanding of NCC. We assembled a comprehensive list of 240,000 English biological taxon labels. We pre‐processed and searched a subcorpus of digitised literature on Project Gutenberg for these labels. We quantified changes in biodiversity indices commonly used in ecological studies for 16,000 books, encompassing 4,000 authors, as proxies for BiL between 1705 and 1969. We observed hump‐shape patterns for taxon label richness, abundance and Shannon diversity indicating a peak of BiL in the middle of the 19th century. This is also true for the ratio of biological to general lexical richness. The variation in label use between different sections within books, quantified as β‐diversity, declined until the 1830s and recovered little, indicating a less specialised use of taxon labels over time. This pattern corroborates our hypothesis that before the onset of industrialisation BiL may have increased, reflecting several concomitant influences such as the general broadening of literary content, improved education and possibly an intensified awareness of the starting loss of biodiversity during the period of romanticism. Given that these positive trends continued and that we do not find support for alternative processes reducing BiL, such as language streamlining, we suggest that this pronounced trend reversal and subsequent decline of BiL over more than 100 years may be the consequence of humans’ increasing alienation from nature owing to major societal changes in the wake of industrialisation. We conclude that our computational approach of analysing literary communication using biodiversity indices has a high potential for understanding aspects of non‐material contributions of biodiversity to people. Our approach can be applied to other corpora and would benefit from additional metadata on taxa, works and authors. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Abstract Crop production is a crucial ecosystem service that requires a combination of natural and anthropogenic contributions to high and stable yields, which is a coproduction process. We analysed this coproduction based on nationally aggregated data for 15 major crops for 67 countries and the European Union with data for four time steps (2000, 2006, 2010, 2014). We found strong increases in fertilizer use, net capital stock and manure use intensity for lower-middle-income countries and stagnation or decrease of these for high-income countries. We used a multiple linear regression model predicting yield to distinguish the effect of anthropogenic contributions (crop-specific fertilizer use intensity, net capital stock intensity, manure use intensity) and natural contributions (crop-specific agricultural suitability, including soil characteristics, topography and climate). We found that in particular fertilizer use intensity, manure use intensity and agricultural suitability explained variation in yields to a considerable degree (R2 = 0.62).

Forest decline and degradation are particularly high in the tropics and pose a risk to those who depend on forest resources. The in-migration of smallholders to forest frontiers can fuel transitions of livelihoods and land and resource use. However, the conditions under which in-migration contributes to such transitions remain poorly understood. With this study, we aim to investigate the influence of in-migration, together with other non-demographic factors, on the livelihoods of local and migrant communities. As a case study, we chose the Guraferda district, a hotspot of rural in-migration and forest loss in southwest Ethiopia, where the forest-based local population experienced a rapid transition to agriculture-based livelihoods. We used 224 household surveys in three different kebeles (smallest administrative unit in Ethiopia) and applied descriptive and analytical statistics to understand how and why the forest activities of local and migrant groups have changed since a major resettlement program was launched in 2003. The findings were contextualized by local expert knowledge to assess forest loss and the role of in-migration in livelihood transitions and deforestation. Forest cover in Guraferda declined partially because of the in-migration of smallholders from agricultural-based systems, and insecure land tenure, but also considerably because of the expansion of commercial agriculture. With the decline in forest, the local population adopted migrants’ agricultural practices, a trend further encouraged by agricultural policies and barriers to participation in forest management for locals. Our study challenges simplified assumptions in in-migration–deforestation debates by showing that governmental policies, land tenure, and natural-resource access are mediating the impact of migration on livelihood transitions and deforestation. We conclude that securing land tenure and equal access to natural resources for frontier residents and promoting a mix of agricultural and forest livelihood activities can reduce adverse impacts in in-migration areas.

Biosphere reserves (BR) balance biodiversity protection and sustainable use through different management restrictions in three zones: core areas, buffer zones, and transition areas. Information about the links between zoning and ecosystem services (ES) is lacking, particularly in terms of the relative roles of natural contributions (ecosystem properties and functions) and anthropogenic contributions (human inputs such as technology and infrastructure) in coproducing ES. This study aimed to: (1) analyse how coproduction of four ES (crop production, grazing, timber production, recreation) differs across the three zones of BRs; and (2) understand which predictors (zoning, natural and anthropogenic contributions, other environmental characteristics) best explain ES provision within BRs. To do this, we collected spatial data on 137 terrestrial BRs in the European Union and on 16 indicators of ES coproduction. We used non-parametric pairwise Wilcoxon rank sum tests to calculate differences in indicators between zones. We used model selection and multiple linear regression to identify predictors of ES provision patterns. Anthropogenic contributions showed most differences between zones, with contributions generally increasing from buffer zones to transition areas. Natural contributions did not, on average, differ between zones, however, for recreation and crop production they decreased from buffer zones to transition areas. ES provision differed between zones only for crop production and grazing, which increased from buffer zones to transition areas. Regression analysis showed that natural contributions are the best predictors of ES provision for all four services. Our results indicate that zoning of BRs has implications for ES coproduction.

A key sustainability challenge in human-dominated landscapes is how to reconcile competing demands such as food production, water quality, climate regulation, and ecological amenities. Prior research has documented how efforts to prioritize desirable ecosystem services such as food and fiber have often led to tradeoffs with other services. However, the growing literature has revealed different and sometimes contradictory patterns in ecosystem service relationships. It thus remains unclear whether there are generalizable patterns across social-ecological systems, and if not, what factors explain the variations. In this study, we synthesize datasets of five ecosystem services from four social-ecological systems. We ask: (1) Are ecosystem service relationships consistent across distinct regional social-ecological systems? (2) How do ecosystem service relationships vary with land-use intensity at the landscape scale? (3) In case of ecosystem service tradeoffs, how does land-use intensity affect intersection points of tradeoffs along the landscape composition gradient? Our results reveal that land-use intensity increases magnitude of ecosystem service tradeoffs (e.g. food production vs. climate regulation and water quality) across landscapes. Land-use intensity also alters where provisioning and regulating services intersect: in high-intensity systems, food production and regulating services can be both sustained only at smaller proportions of agricultural lands, whereas in low-intensity systems, these services could be both supplied with greater proportions of agricultural lands. Our research demonstrates importance of considering multiple aspects of land uses (landscape composition and land-use intensity), and provides a more nuanced understanding and framework to enhance our ability to predict how land use alters ecosystem service relationships.

Abstract Meta‐analyses often encounter studies with incompletely reported variance measures (e.g., standard deviation values) or sample sizes, both needed to conduct weighted meta‐analyses. Here, we first present a systematic literature survey on the frequency and treatment of missing data in published ecological meta‐analyses showing that the majority of meta‐analyses encountered incompletely reported studies. We then simulated meta‐analysis data sets to investigate the performance of 14 options to treat or impute missing SDs and/or SSs. Performance was thereby assessed using results from fully informed weighted analyses on (hypothetically) complete data sets. We show that the omission of incompletely reported studies is not a viable solution. Unweighted and sample size‐based variance approximation can yield unbiased grand means if effect sizes are independent of their corresponding SDs and SSs. The performance of different imputation methods depends on the structure of the meta‐analysis data set, especially in the case of correlated effect sizes and standard deviations or sample sizes. In a best‐case scenario, which assumes that SDs and/or SSs are both missing at random and are unrelated to effect sizes, our simulations show that the imputation of up to 90% of missing data still yields grand means and confidence intervals that are similar to those obtained with fully informed weighted analyses. We conclude that multiple imputation of missing variance measures and sample sizes could help overcome the problem of incompletely reported primary studies, not only in the field of ecological meta‐analyses. Still, caution must be exercised in consideration of potential correlations and pattern of missingness.

Abstract Humanity is on a deeply unsustainable trajectory. We are exceeding planetary boundaries and unlikely to meet many international sustainable development goals and global environmental targets. Until recently, there was no broadly accepted framework of interventions that could ignite the transformations needed to achieve these desired targets and goals. As a component of the IPBES Global Assessment, we conducted an iterative expert deliberation process with an extensive review of scenarios and pathways to sustainability, including the broader literature on indirect drivers, social change and sustainability transformation. We asked, what are the most important elements of pathways to sustainability? Applying a social–ecological systems lens, we identified eight priority points for intervention (leverage points) and five overarching strategic actions and priority interventions (levers), which appear to be key to societal transformation. The eight leverage points are: (1) Visions of a good life, (2) Total consumption and waste, (3) Latent values of responsibility, (4) Inequalities, (5) Justice and inclusion in conservation, (6) Externalities from trade and other telecouplings, (7) Responsible technology, innovation and investment, and (8) Education and knowledge generation and sharing. The five intertwined levers can be applied across the eight leverage points and more broadly. These include: (A) Incentives and capacity building, (B) Coordination across sectors and jurisdictions, (C) Pre‐emptive action, (D) Adaptive decision‐making and (E) Environmental law and implementation. The levers and leverage points are all non‐substitutable, and each enables others, likely leading to synergistic benefits. Transformative change towards sustainable pathways requires more than a simple scaling‐up of sustainability initiatives—it entails addressing these levers and leverage points to change the fabric of legal, political, economic and other social systems. These levers and leverage points build upon those approved within the Global Assessment's Summary for Policymakers, with the aim of enabling leaders in government, business, civil society and academia to spark transformative changes towards a more just and sustainable world. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

The increase in needs for agricultural commodities is projected to outpace the growth of farmland production globally, leading to high pressure on farming systems in the next decades. Here, the authors investigate the future impact of cropland expansion and intensification on agricultural markets and biodiversity, and suggest the need for balancing agricultural production with conservation goals.

Resilience is a cross-disciplinary concept that is relevant for understanding the sustainability of the social and environmental conditions in which we live. Most research normatively focuses on building or strengthening resilience, despite growing recognition of the importance of breaking the resilience of, and thus transforming, unsustainable social-ecological systems. Undesirable resilience (cf. lock-ins, social-ecological traps), however, is not only less explored in the academic literature, but its understanding is also more fragmented across different disciplines. This disparity can inhibit collaboration among researchers exploring interdependent challenges in sustainability sciences. In this article, we propose that the term lock-in may contribute to a common understanding of undesirable resilience across scientific fields.

Theoretical and empirical studies show increased diversity in crops, supply chains, and markets helps stabilize food systems. At the same time global commodity markets and industrial agriculture have driven homogenization of local and regional production systems, and consolidated power in fewer larger specialized farms and distributers. This is a global challenge, with no obvious global solutions. An important question therefore, is how individual countries can build their own resilience through maintaining or increasing diversity within their borders. Here we show, using farm level data from Germany, that spreading production risk by growing the same crops across different farms carries stabilizing benefits by allowing for increased spatiotemporal asynchrony within crops. We also find that increasing asynchrony between the year-to-year production of different crops has stabilizing effects on food supply. Importantly, the benefits of increasing crop diversity are lower in specialized landscapes growing the same crop on large patches. Our results illustrate clear benefits of diversified crops, producers, and agricultural landscapes to buffer supply side shocks, and for incorporation in subsidies and other regulatory measures aimed at stabilizing food systems.

The global recognition of modern agricultural practices’ impact on the environment has fuelled policy responses to ameliorate environmental degradation in agricultural landscapes. In the US and the EU, agri-environmental subsidies (AES) promote widespread adoption of sustainable practices by compensating farmers who voluntarily implement them on working farmland. Previous studies, however, have suggested limitations of their spatial targeting, with funds not allocated towards areas of the greatest environmental need. We analysed AES in the US and EU—specifically through the Environmental Quality Incentives Program (EQIP) and selected measures of the European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development (EAFRD)—to identify if AES are going where they are most needed to achieve environmental goals, using a set of environmental need indicators, socio-economic variables moderating allocation patterns, and contextual variables describing agricultural systems. Using linear mixed models and linear models we explored the associations among AES allocation and these predictors at different scales. We found that higher AES spending was associated with areas of low soil organic carbon and high greenhouse gas emissions both in the US and EU, and nitrogen surplus in the EU. More so than successes, however, clear mismatches of funding and environmental need emerged—AES allocation did not successfully target areas of highest water stress, biodiversity loss, soil erosion, and nutrient runoff. Socio-economic and agricultural context variables may explain some of these mismatches; we show that AES were allocated to areas with higher proportions of female producers in the EU but not in the US, where funds were directed towards areas with less tenant farmers. Moreover, we suggest that the potential for AES to remediate environmental issues may be curtailed by limited participation in intensive agricultural landscapes. These findings can help inform refinements to EQIP and EAFRD allocation mechanisms and identify opportunities for improving future targeting of AES spending.

Different types of mobility are known as longstanding strategies used by humans to deal with environmental pressure. Immobility is relevant in this context as population groups may be at considerable risk but lacking the capacity or willingness to move. Despite significant advances in this research field, grasping especially the subjective dimension of people's migration decision remains challenging. Moreover, the conceptualization of cultural factors in this context has received rather marginal attention thus far. In light of this, we propose a framework that integrates the novel concept of nature's contributions to people (NCP) with migration theory, in particular the triad of migration need, ability, and aspiration. NCP goes beyond the popular notion of ecosystem services by conceiving nature-society relations in a more inclusive way with culture being a key element of these. Combined with migration need, ability, and aspiration, we argue that this approach offers a valuable nuanced perspective on nature-mobility interactions, including cultural aspects of natural resource use and varying degrees of agency related to mobility decision making. We apply the framework to two archetypal climate-related migration situations, southwestern coastal Bangladesh and the northern Ethiopian highlands, to delineate the diverse mechanisms through which environmental change shapes population movement in highly resource-dependent livelihoods. We show that based on the analyzed case studies most links can be drawn between material and regulating NCP and migration need, and that nonenvironmental factors play a crucial role in mediating nature's contributions to human mobility. More knowledge is needed though in particular on the influence of nonmaterial NCP on mobility decision making and on migration aspirations in general to better account for important cultural factors. We formulate a number of hypotheses and questions relevant for guiding future research that can inform policy interventions.

Maintaining and improving water quality is key to the protection and restoration of aquatic ecosystems, which provide important benefits to society. In Europe, the Water Framework Directive (WFD) defines water quality based on a set of biological, hydro-morphological and chemical targets, and aims to reach good quality conditions in all river bodies by the year 2027. While recently it has been argued that achieving these goals will deliver and enhance ecosystem services, in particular recreational services, there is little empirical evidence demonstrating so. Here we test the hypothesis that good water quality is associated with increased utilization of recreational services, combining four surveys covering walking, boating, fishing and swimming visits, together with water quality data for all water bodies in eight River Basin Districts (RBDs) in England. We compared the percentage of visits in areas of good water quality to a set of null models accounting for population density, income, age distribution, travel distance, public access, and substitutability. We expect such association to be positive, at least for fishing (which relies on fish stocks) and swimming (with direct contact to water). We also test if these services have stronger association with water quality relative to boating and walking alongside rivers, canals or lakeshores. In only two of eight RBDs (Northumbria and Anglian) were both criteria met (positive association, strongest for fishing and swimming) when comparing to at least one of the null models. This conclusion is robust to variations in dataset size. Our study suggests that achieving the WFD water quality goals may not enhance recreational ecosystem services, and calls for further empirical research on the connection between water quality and ecosystem services.

Growing demand of resources increases pressure on ecosystem services (ES) and biodiversity. Monetary valuation of ES is frequently seen as a decision-support tool by providing explicit values for unconsidered, non-market goods and services. Here we present global value transfer functions by using a meta-analytic framework for the synthesis of 194 case studies capturing 839 monetary values of ES. For 12 ES the variance of monetary values could be explained with a subset of 93 study- and site-specific variables by utilizing boosted regression trees. This provides the first global quantification of uncertainties and transferability of monetary valuations. Models explain from 18% (water provision) to 44% (food provision) of variance and provide statistically reliable extrapolations for 70% (water provision) to 91% (food provision) of the terrestrial earth surface. Although the application of different valuation methods is a source of uncertainty, we found evidence that assuming homogeneity of ecosystems is a major error in value transfer function models. Food provision is positively correlated with better life domains and variables indicating positive conditions for human well-being. Water provision and recreation service show that weak ownerships affect valuation of other common goods negatively (e.g. non-privately owned forests). Furthermore, we found support for the shifting baseline hypothesis in valuing climate regulation. Ecological conditions and societal vulnerability determine valuation of extreme event prevention. Valuation of habitat services is negatively correlated with indicators characterizing less favorable areas. Our analysis represents a stepping stone to establish a standardized integration of and reporting on uncertainties for reliable and valid benefit transfer as an important component for decision support.

Large scale land acquisitions (LSLA), and Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation (REDD+) are both land based phenomena which when occurring in the same area, can compete with each other for land. A quantitative analysis of country characteristics revealed that land available for agriculture, accessibility, and political stability are key explanatory factors for a country being targeted for LSLA. Surprisingly LSLA occur in countries with lower accessibility. Countries with good land availability, poor accessibility and political stability may become future targets if they do not already have LSLA. Countries which high levels of agriculture-driven deforestation and LSLA, should develop interventions which reduce forest loss driven either directly or indirectly by LSLA as part of their REDD+ strategies. Both host country and investor-side policies have been identified which could be used more widely to reduce conflicts between LSLA and REDD+. Findings from this research highlight the need for and can inform the development of national and international policies on land acquisitions including green acquisitions such as REDD+. Land management must be considered with all its objectives—including food security, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation—in a coherent strategy which engages relevant stakeholders. This is not currently occurring and might be a key ingredient to achieve the targets under the Sustainable Development Goals 2 and 15 and 16 (related to food security and sustainable agriculture and the protection of forests) among others.

Groß angelegte und langfristig etablierte Feldversuche sind ein zentrales Element der standortbezogenen Agrarwissenschaften. Die Erarbeitung des Grundlagenwissens zu standortangepassten bzw. regionalspezifischen Produktivitätspotentialen von Pflanzenbeständen sowie die Entwicklung von ökologisch vertretbaren, innovativen Produktionssystemen mit hoher Produktivität und Resi­lienz erfordern leistungsfähige Forschungsinfrastrukturen, die relevante Gradienten an Klima- und Bodenfaktoren abdecken und den interdisziplinären Dialog fördern. Das Positionspapier der Senatskommission für Agrar­öko­systemforschung der Deutschen Forschungsgemeinschaft stellt den Status quo und die zukünftigen Anforderungen an Feldversuchseinrichtungen dar. Zur Optimierung des agrarwissenschaftlichen Feldversuchswesens wird angeregt, in einem Netzwerk aus Versuchseinrichtungen Landschaftsfunktionen prototypisch abzubilden, um in einem interdisziplinären Ansatz Flächenproduktivität, Resilienz und Ressourceneffizienz landschaftsspezifisch untersuchen zu können. Des Weiteren ist es erforderlich, der wissenschaftlichen Community standardisierte Daten in Datenrepositorien zur Verfügung zu stellen. DOI: 10.5073/JfK.2014.07.02, https://doi.org/10.5073/JfK.2014.07.02

Mit dem vorliegenden Grundsatzpapier zeigt die Senatskommission für Agrarökosystemforschung Perspektiven für die Grundlagenforschung zur nachhaltigen Erhöhung der Kulturpflanzenproduktion auf. Agrarsysteme stehen im Spannungsfeld zwischen steigendem Bedarf an landwirtschaftlichen Produkten, der Verknappung der Ressourcen, dem Verlust der Biodiversität und dem Klimawandel. Die für das Jahr 2050 prognostizierte notwendige Ertragssteigerung zur Sicherstellung des Bedarfs an Nahrungsmitteln kann, ohne die Belastbarkeitsgrenzen ökologischer Systeme zu überschreiten, nur durch wissenschaftlichen Fortschritt bewältigt werden (Abb. 1), der eine nachhaltige und ressourcen­effiziente Steigerung der Agrarproduktion ermöglicht (FAO, 2011; Dobermann und Nelson, 2013). Die nachhaltige Intensivierung stellt die Agrarwissenschaften vor neue Aufgaben, die weit über ihre klassischen Grenzen hinausgehen. Die Senatskommission plädiert daher für eine Erweiterung der agrarwissenschaftlichen Perspektive. Die meist auf einzelne Feldfrüchte bezogene Bewertung der Rela­tion zwischen Input und Ertrag muss ergänzt werden um die Optionen, die sich aus der räumlichen und zeitlichen Diversifikation der Produktionssysteme unter Einbeziehung der standörtlichen Eigenschaften, des Landschaftskontextes sowie des Klimawandels ergeben. Um Ökosystemleistungen einzubeziehen, müssen Produktionsstrategien entwickelt werden, die sich auf ganze Landschaften und Regionen richten und auch entsprechende sozio­öko­no­mische und agrarpolitische Rahmenbedingungen berücksichtigen. Vor diesem Hintergrund schlägt die Senatskommission drei interdisziplinäre Forschungsschwerpunkte zur ressourceneffizienten Erhöhung der Flächenproduktivität vor: (1) Ausnutzung des Potentials von Kulturpflanzen zur umweltschonenden Ertragssteigerung im Kontext öko­systemarer Bedingungen. (2) Nachhaltige Steigerung der Pflanzenproduktion im Landschaftskontext. (3) Ökonomische, gesellschaftliche und politische Dimensionen der Ertragssteigerung von Kulturpflanzen. DOI: 10.5073/JfK.2014.07.01, https://doi.org/10.5073/JfK.2014.07.01

Global demand for agricultural and forestry products fundamentally affects regional land-use change associated with environmental impacts (EIs) such as erosion. In contrast to aggregated global metrics such as greenhouse gas (GHG) balances, local/regional EIs of different agricultural and forestry production regions need methods which enable worldwide EI comparisons. The key aspect is to control environmental heterogeneity to reveal man-made differences of EIs between production regions. Environmental heterogeneity is the variation in biotic and abiotic environmental conditions. In the present study, we used three approaches to control environmental heterogeneity: (i) environmental stratification, (ii) potential natural vegetation (PNV), and (iii) regional environmental thresholds to compare EIs of solid biomass production. We compared production regions of managed forests and plantation forests in subtropical (Satilla watershed, Southeastern US), tropical (Rufiji basin, Tanzania), and temperate (Mulde watershed, Central Germany) climates. All approaches supported the comparison of the EIs of different land-use classes between and within production regions. They also standardized the different EIs for a comparison between the EI categories. The EIs for different land-use classes within a production region decreased with increasing degree of naturalness (forest, plantation forestry, and cropland). PNV was the most reliable approach, but lacked feasibility and relevance. The PNV approach explicitly included most of the factors that drive environmental heterogeneity in contrast to the stratification and threshold approaches. The stratification approach allows consistent global application due to available data. Regional environmental thresholds only included arbitrarily selected aspects of environmental heterogeneity; they are only available for few EIs. Especially, the PNV and stratification approaches are options to compare regional EIs of biomass or crop production such as erosion, biodiversity, or water quality impacts worldwide and thereby complement existing metrics assessing global EIs such as GHG emissions.

Forest products provide an important source of income and wellbeing for rural smallholder communities across the tropics. Although tropical forest products frequently become over-exploited, only few studies explicitly address the dynamics of degradation in response to socio-economic drivers. Our study addresses this gap by analyzing the factors driving changes in tropical forest products in the perception of rural smallholder communities. Using the poverty and environment network global dataset, we studied recently perceived trends of forest product availability considering firewood, charcoal, timber, food, medicine, forage and other forest products. We looked at a pan-tropical sample of 233 villages with forest access. Our results show that 90% of the villages experienced declining availability of forest resources over the last five years according to the informants. Timber and fuelwood together with forest foods were featured as the most strongly affected, though with marked differences across continents. In contrast, availability of at least one main forest product was perceived to increase in only 39% of the villages. Furthermore, the growing local use of forest resources is seen as the main culprit for the decline. In villages with both growing forest resource use and immigration—vividly illustrating demographic pressures—the strongest forest resources degradation was observed. Conversely, villages with little or no population growth and a decreased use of forest resources were most likely to see significant forest-resource increases. Further, villages are less likely to perceive resource declines when local communities own a significant share of forest area. Our results thus suggest that perceived resource declines have only exceptionally triggered adaptations in local resource-use and management patterns that would effectively deal with scarcity. Hence, at the margin this supports neo-Malthusian over neo-Boserupian explanations of local resource-use dynamics.

Much of our knowledge about land use and ecosystem services in interrelated social-ecological systems is derived from place-based research. While local and regional case studies provide valuable insights, it is often unclear how relevant this research is beyond the study areas. Drawing generalized conclusions about practical solutions to land management from local observations and formulating hypotheses applicable to other places in the world requires that we identify patterns of land systems that are similar to those represented by the case study. Here, we utilize the previously developed concept of land system archetypes to investigate potential transferability of research from twelve regional projects implemented in a large joint research framework that focus on issues of sustainable land management across four continents. For each project, we characterize its project archetype, i.e. the unique land system based on a synthesis of more than 30 datasets of land-use intensity, environmental conditions and socioeconomic indicators. We estimate the transferability potential of project research by calculating the statistical similarity of locations across the world to the project archetype, assuming higher transferability potentials in locations with similar land system characteristics. Results show that areas with high transferability potentials are typically clustered around project sites but for some case studies can be found in regions that are geographically distant, especially when values of considered variables are close to the global mean or where the project archetype is driven by large-scale environmental or socioeconomic conditions. Using specific examples from the local case studies, we highlight the merit of our approach and discuss the differences between local realities and information captured in global datasets. The proposed method provides a blueprint for large research programs to assess potential transferability of place-based studies to other geographical areas and to indicate possible gaps in research efforts.

Pollination is a well-studied and at the same time a threatened ecosystem service. A significant part of global crop production depends on or profits from pollination by animals. Using detailed information on global crop yields of 60 pollination dependent or profiting crops, we provide a map of global pollination benefits on a 5' by 5' latitude-longitude grid. The current spatial pattern of pollination benefits is only partly correlated with climate variables and the distribution of cropland. The resulting map of pollination benefits identifies hot spots of pollination benefits at sufficient detail to guide political decisions on where to protect pollination services by investing in structural diversity of land use. Additionally, we investigated the vulnerability of the national economies with respect to potential decline of pollination services as the portion of the (agricultural) economy depending on pollination benefits. While the general dependency of the agricultural economy on pollination seems to be stable from 1993 until 2009, we see increases in producer prices for pollination dependent crops, which we interpret as an early warning signal for a conflict between pollination service and other land uses at the global scale. Our spatially explicit analysis of global pollination benefit points to hot spots for the generation of pollination benefits and can serve as a base for further planning of land use, protection sites and agricultural policies for maintaining pollination services.

Assessments of ecosystem services (ES), that aim at informing decisions on land management, are increasing in number around the globe. Despite selected success stories, evidence for ES information being used in decision making is weak, partly because ES assessments are found to fall short in targeting information needs by decision makers. To improve their applicability in practice, we compared existing concepts of ES assessments with focus on informing land use decisions and identified opportunities for enhancing the relevance of ES assessments for decision making. In a process of codesign, building on experience of four projects in Brazil, China, Madagascar, and Vietnam, we developed a step-wise approach for better targeting ES assessments toward information needs in land use decisions. Our problem-oriented approach aims at (1) structuring ES information according to land use problems identified by stakeholders, (2) targeting context-specific ES information needs by decision makers, and (3) assessing relevant management options. We demonstrate how our approach contributes to making ES assessments more policy relevant and enhances the application of ES assessments as a tool for decision support.

Many separate studies have estimated the year of peak, or maximum, rate of using an individual resource such as oil. However, no study has estimated the year of peak rate for multiple resources and investigated the relationships among them. We exploit time series on the appropriation of 27 global renewable and nonrenewable resources. We found 21 resources experienced a peak-rate year, and for 20 resources the peak-rate years occurred between 1960-2010, a narrow time window in the long human history. Whereas 4 of 7 nonrenewable resources show no peak-rate year, conversion to cropland and 18 of the 20 renewable resources have passed their peak rate of appropriation. To test the hypothesis that peak-rate years are synchronized, i.e., occur at approximately the same time, we analyzed 20 statistically independent time series of resources, of which 16 presented a peak-rate year centered on 2006 (1989-2008). We discuss potential causal mechanisms including change in demand, innovation and adaptation, interdependent use of resources, physical limitation, and simultaneous scarcity. The synchrony of peak-rate years of multiple resources poses a greater adaptation challenge for society than previously recognized, suggesting the need for a paradigm shift in resource use toward a sustainable path in the Anthropocene.

Because we have entered the 'millennium of the cities', urban ecological research needs to account for the provisions ecosystem services provide to urban regions. In urban areas, ecosystem service assessment studies need to account for the complex land use patterns, which change over relatively short periods of time. We discuss an analytical framework for the spatial and temporal integration of different ecosystem services in an urban region to determine synergies, trade-offs and losses, and we employ a case study in Leipzig-Halle, Germany. The following five ecosystem services, which are of special importance for urban areas, were selected: local climate regulation, recreation potential, biodiversity potential, food supply, and above-ground carbon storage. These services were analyzed from 1990 to 2006. Our results identified only slight increases in urbanization (1% or 3 km²) and in mining restoration (-11 km²). However, the detected land use changes led to synergies with biodiversity and climate regulation of > 50% of the total area, whereas trade-offs of approximately 60% were detected between variables such as climate regulation and recreation. Finally, we address both the opportunities and the challenges that were encountered in the integration study, specifically with respect to the application in land use planning.

The expansion of renewable energies, such as wind power, is a promising way of mitigating climate change. Because of the risk of collision with rotor blades, wind turbines have negative effects on local bird populations, particularly on raptors such as the Red Kite (Milvus milvus). Appropriate assessment tools for these effects have been lacking. To close this gap, we have developed an agent-based, spatially explicit model that simulates the foraging behavior of the Red Kite around its aerie in a landscape consisting of different land-use types. We determined the collision risk of the Red Kite with the turbine as a function of the distance between the wind turbine and the aerie and other parameters. The impact function comprises the synergistic effects of species-specific foraging behavior and landscape structure. The collision risk declines exponentially with increasing distance. The strength of this decline depends on the raptor's foraging behavior, its ability to avoid wind turbines, and the mean wind speed in the region. The collision risks, which are estimated by the simulation model, are in the range of values observed in the field. The derived impact function shows that the collision risk can be described as an aggregated function of distance between the wind turbine and the raptor's aerie. This allows an easy and rapid assessment of the ecological impacts of (existing or planned) wind turbines in relation to their spatial location. Furthermore, it implies that minimum buffer zones for different landscapes can be determined in a defensible way. This modeling approach can be extended to other bird species with central-place foraging behavior. It provides a helpful tool for landscape planning aimed at minimizing the impacts of wind power on biodiversity.