Background Sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) consumption is associated with obesity, diabetes, and hypertension. Argentina is one of the major consumers of SSBs per capita worldwide. Determining the impact of SSB reduction on health will inform policy debates. Methods and findings We used the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model-Argentina (CVD Policy Model-Argentina), a local adaptation of a well-established computer simulation model that projects cardiovascular and mortality events for the population 35–94 years old, to estimate the impact of reducing SSB consumption on diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina during the period 2015–2024, using local demographic and consumption data. Given uncertainty regarding the exact amount of SSBs consumed by different age groups, we modeled 2 estimates of baseline consumption (low and high) under 2 different scenarios: a 10% and a 20% decrease in SSB consumption. We also included a range of caloric compensation in the model (0%, 39%, and 100%). We used Monte Carlo simulations to generate 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around our primary outcome measures for each intervention scenario. Over the 2015–2024 period, a 10% reduction in SSBs with a caloric compensation of 39% is projected to reduce incident diabetes cases by 13,300 (95% UI 10,800–15,600 [low SSB consumption estimate]) to 27,700 cases (95% UI 22,400–32,400 [high SSB consumption estimate]), i.e., 1.7% and 3.6% fewer cases, respectively, compared to a scenario of no change in SSB consumption. It would also reduce myocardial infarctions by 2,500 (95% UI 2,200–2,800) to 5,100 (95% UI 4,500–5,700) events and all-cause deaths by 2,700 (95% UI 2,200–3,200) to 5,600 (95% UI 4,600–6,600) for “low” and “high” estimates of SSB intake, respectively. A 20% reduction in SSB consumption with 39% caloric compensation is projected to result in 26,200 (95% UI 21,200–30,600) to 53,800 (95% UI 43,900–62,700) fewer cases of diabetes, 4,800 (95% UI 4,200–5,300) to 10,000 (95% UI 8,800–11,200) fewer myocardial infarctions, and 5,200 (95% UI 4,300–6,200) to 11,000 (95% UI 9,100–13,100) fewer deaths. The largest reductions in diabetes and cardiovascular events were observed in the youngest age group modeled (35–44 years) for both men and women; additionally, more events could be avoided in men compared to women in all age groups. The main limitations of our study are the limited availability of SSB consumption data in Argentina and the fact that we were only able to model the possible benefits of the interventions for the population older than 34 years. Conclusions Our study finds that, even under conservative assumptions, a relatively small reduction in SSB consumption could lead to a substantial decrease in diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina., Victoria Salgado and colleagues model the benefits of reduced sugar-sweetened beverage consumption in Argentina., Author summary Why was this study done? Sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) are associated with obesity, hypertension, and diabetes. Argentina is one of the largest consumers of SSBs, particularly sodas, in the world. When considering measures aimed at reducing SSB consumption, such as a soda tax, policy makers need evidence-based estimates of potential health benefits. What did the researchers do and find? We first developed and updated an Argentinian version of the Cardiovascular Disease Policy Model (CVD Policy Model), a well-established computer simulation model already used in the United States and Mexico to estimate cardiovascular health outcomes. We used the CVD Policy Model-Argentina to determine the potential impact of a reduction in soda consumption on diabetes, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), and mortality among adults 35–94 years of age over a 10-year period (2015–2024). A 10% reduction in soda consumption is projected to avert between 13,300 to 27,700 diabetes cases, 2,500 to 5,100 myocardial infarctions, and 2,700 to 5,600 all-cause deaths over a 10-year period. The largest reductions in diabetes and cardiovascular events were observed in the youngest age group modeled (35–44 years) for both men and women; additionally, more events could be avoided in men compared to women in all age groups. What do these findings mean? A relatively small reduction in SSB consumption could lead to a substantial decrease in diabetes incidence, cardiovascular events, and mortality in Argentina. These results support the implementation of policies to reduce SSB consumption, such as a soda tax. Use of taxation as a health policy tool would have the additional advantage of providing a new source of public funds to support healthy lifestyles.