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The United Nations 2030 Agenda brings a holistic and multi-sectoral view on sustainability via the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, a successful implementation of this agenda is conti...

Deriving water quality criteria (WQC) for aquatic risk assessment requires sufficient toxicity data, which can determine the accuracy of WQC. Given that toxicity data vary between test species and endpoints, there is a great need to compare such data to generate the most suitable data set for WQC derivation. In the present study, a series of 11 ammonia exposure bioassays were conducted on Chironomidae species in either China or Australia, with test species and test endpoints varied (2 Chironomus sp., enzymatic up to lethal endpoints, and no-observed-effect concentration up to median lethal concentration [LC50] as endpoint metrics). There were no statistically significant differences between toxicity results generated from China compared to Australia using Chironomus sp., indicating that published data on native species generated in different countries could be appropriate for inclusion in the development of local Chinese WQC. In addition, the Chironomidae larvae laboratory-based toxicity value (LC50 = 384.6 mg/L) was lower than that of the in situ field-based toxicity value (LC50 ≥ 451.2 mg/L) where sensitive life stages are used, and, specifically for C. riparius, endpoints linked to biochemical and gene expression effects could be as sensitive as or more sensitive than chronic endpoints, both of which were more sensitive than acute endpoints. These findings help in the development of WQC by demonstrating the suitability of inclusion of toxicity data from a range of sources, as well as adding to the overall pool of knowledge regarding sensitivity to ammonia which can be used in aquatic risk assessment. Environ Toxicol Chem 2021;40:2899-2911. © 2021 SETAC.

Globally, many river systems are under stress due to overconsumption of water. Governments have responded with programmes to deliver environmental water to improve environmental outcomes. Although such programmes are essential, they may not be sufficient to achieve all desired environmental outcomes. The benefits of environmental water allocation may be improved using ‘complementary measures’, which are non-flow-based actions, such as infrastructure works, vegetation management and pest control. The value of complementary measures is recognised globally, but their ecological benefits are rarely well understood, either because there is limited experience with their application, or the importance of context- and location-specific factors make it difficult to generalise benefits. In this study, we developed an approach to evaluate complementary measures at different levels of detail as a mechanism to aid decision-making. For systems that require a rapid, high-level evaluation, we propose a score-based multi-criteria benefit assessment module. If more ecological detail is necessary, we outline a method based on conceptual models, expert elicitation and probability assessment. These results are used to populate a cumulative benefit assessment tool. The tool evaluates the benefits of proposed measures in the wider context by including variables such as flow, dependence on ongoing maintenance and additional ecological values. We illustrate our approach through application to the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia. As many water recovery programmes mature into their evaluation phases, there is an increasing need to evaluate the ecological benefits of including complementary measures in the toolkit available to policy makers.

This research was funded by the Australian Commonwealth Department of Environment and Energy under the Environmental Watering Knowledge and Research program. We thank John Pengelly from the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization for dissolved organic carbon and Chl a analyses. We thank Douglas Ford from University of Western Australia for stable isotope analyses and David Francis from Deakin University is thanked for analyses of fatty acids. We thank Michael Shackleton of La Trobe University for production of Fig. 1. We also thank three anonymous reviewers and the editor Bob Hall whose insightful comments improved our manuscript.

Amongst oviparous animals, the spatial distribution of individuals is often set initially by where females lay eggs, with potential implications for populations and species coexistence. Do the spatial arrangements of oviposition sites or female behaviours determine spatial patterns of eggs? The consequences of spatial patterns may be context independent if strong behaviours drive patterns; context dependent if the local environment dominates. We tested these ideas using a guild of stream-dwelling caddisflies that oviposit on emergent rocks, focussing on genera with contrasting behaviours. In naturally occurring oviposition landscapes (riffles with emergent rocks), we surveyed the spatial arrangement and environmental characteristics of all emergent rocks, identified and enumerated egg masses on each. Multiple riffles were surveyed to test for spatially invariant patterns and behaviours. In landscapes, we tested for spatial clumping of oviposition sites exploited by each species and for segregation of congeneric species. At oviposition sites, we characterised the frequency distributions of egg masses and tested for species associations. Genus-specific behaviours produced different spatial patterns of egg masses in the same landscapes. Congregative behaviour of Ulmerochorema spp. at landscape scales and an aggregative response at preferred oviposition sites led to clumped patterns, local aggregation and species overlap. In contrast, avoidance behaviours by congeners of Apsilochorema resulted in no or weak clumping, and species segregation in some landscapes. Spatial patterns were consistent across riffles that varied in area and oviposition site density. These results suggest that quite different oviposition behaviours may be context independent, and the consequences of spatial patterns may be spatially invariant also.

Measuring the physical complexity of habitats or ecological resources is often achieved using 27 system-specific methods that make comparisons across ecosystems difficult. One measure 28 that is applicable across multiple ecosystems and scales is the fractal dimension, which has 29 the benefit of generality as well as potential scale independence. This study evaluated the use 30 of box-counting and entropy fractal dimensions for characterising the complexity of emergent 31 rock distributions in six streams across Scotland and Australia. Emergent rocks (ER) are 32 important hydraulic features and ecological resources, including as oviposition sites for 33 aquatic insects and cover for fish. We complete fractal analysis on counts of ER in 5-m 34 segments along longitudinal stretches of the six streams. All six streams exhibited fractal 35 behaviour (self-similarity), suggesting that fractals can be used to measure the complexity of 36 longitudinal ER distributions in a way that is scale independent. Entropy was a superior 37 measure due to its ability to differentiate among the six streams whereas box-counting could 38 not. Together, field results and numerical simulations showed that fractal dimensions of 39 emergent rock distributions were related to stream geomorphology. Well-developed 40 bedforms, like alternating pools and riffles had better organised emergent rocks because large 41 bed materials were more likely to be emergent in topographic highs. Streams with coarser 42 bed materials had more chaotic arrangements of emergent rocks because this increased the 43 general abundance of emergent rocks, making differentiation between topographic highs and 44 lows less distinctive. Fractal dimensions, therefore, can measure the complexity of river 45 systems in a way that is relevant to geomorphological and ecological processes.

A key question to be asked when developing regional water quality criteria with scarce toxicity data is whether such data need to be locally derived. To address this, ammonia toxicity data from local aquatic species in the Liao River were compared against data from species native and non-native to China, based on comparisons of the overall trends of species sensitivity distributions and derived water quality criteria. Liao River data were acquired by acute and chronic tests using five local freshwater invertebrate species, and then compiled alongside published data from Chinese national guidelines and international literature. Models of best fit using three species sensitivity distribution approaches (log-logistic, log-normal, and Burr III) did not vary markedly (r2 >0.9), and no specific model provided a best fit across all data sets. The comparisons of the overall trend of species sensitivity distribution curves showed no significant differences at either a national (Chinese native taxa tested in China versus non-native taxa) or regional level (Liao River taxa versus non-Liao River taxa). The comparisons also revealed that the inclusion or exclusions of different ecological groups had little influence on the overall trends of species sensitivity distributions. These findings suggested data on non-local and non-native species, and data from local species tested elsewhere, could be appropriate for guiding the derivation of ammonia water quality criteria for regions such as Liao River. However, caution is needed when using hazardous concentration 5% values in the development of site-specific water quality criteria for a river basin due to the considerable variation observed for ammonia (16.8–56.6 mg/L), although these differences were not statistically significant. Based on the toxicity test evaluation, a preliminary acute value of 10.0 mg/L and chronic value of 1.7 mg/L (at pH of 7.0 and 20 °C) are proposed as site-specific ammonia water quality criteria for the Liao River, China.

Robust environmental decision support tools are critical to maximise the ecological benefit of management decisions. However the models that underpin these rarely undergo rigorous evaluation. Here, we evaluated components of a scenario-based habitat suitability model, the Murray Flow Assessment Tool, by correlating model outputs against fish monitoring data collected since its development. Overall, we detected a low correlation between habitat suitability scores for fish and fish assemblages during low-flow conditions, including when lags in fish response to hydrological inputs were introduced. Scores specific to fish functional groups were also poorly correlated with data for those groups. Finally, model outcomes were highly sensitive to methods used to combine both individual indices and weightings for each component. Thus, we recommend using constant weightings, simple and consistent combination methods and reconsidering the number of fish functional groups as simplifications to this model and in the development of similar habitat suitability models elsewhere.

1. Seasonal variation in resource availability can have strong effects on life histories and population densities. Emergent rocks (ERs) are an essential oviposition resource for multiple species of stream insects. The availability of ERs depends upon water depth and clast size, which vary with discharge and river geomorphology, respectively. Recruitment success for populations may depend on whether peak egg-laying periods occur at times when ER are also abundant. For multiple species that oviposit on ER, we tested whether seasonal fluctuations in ER abundance were concurrent with oviposition phenology. We also tested whether high discharge drowned ERs for sufficiently long periods to preclude egg laying, and whether this problem varied between rivers differing in channel morphology and particle size distribution. 2. We obtained a continuous timeseries of water level (WL) measured every 30 min for two years at sites on three rivers in south-eastern Australia with similar hydrology but different geomorphology. A relationship between WL and ER numbers was determined empirically at each site and these relationships were used to predict ER availability over the two years. Egg masses of ten species of caddisflies were enumerated each month for a year in one river to establish oviposition phenology. 3. Abundance of ERs was inversely related to discharge in all three rivers. ERs were most abundant during autumn and scarce during spring. Site-specific geomorphology resulted in skewed or multimodal distributions of ER abundance each year. Between years, catchment-scale hydrometeorology mediated patterns of ER availability, despite the close proximity of sites. Temporal variance in ER availability was not consistently correlated with mean WL or WL variance. ER variance increased with WL variance, when WL was below a threshold equivalent to mean annual WL. Above this threshold, most ER were likely to be submerged. 4. Oviposition phenology varied strongly among the ten species of caddisflies, with egg-laying ranging from in 1-2 months to year-round. Temporal variations in ER and egg mass abundance were not correlated for most species. Below a threshold minimum number of ER, egg masses were highly crowded onto the few available ER, which is evidence that ER were in short supply. For five species, high egg mass abundance was positively associated with periods of the year when the time above the threshold number of ERs was high. Unusually, two species laid most egg masses during winter and when the time above this threshold was short. Three species showed no association between egg mass abundance and time above this threshold; two of these species laid eggs year-round. 5. Regional hydrometeorology controlled the availability of ERs, but between-river differences were sufficient to deliver different outcomes in the availability of oviposition sites between years and seasons. Caddisflies were rarely prevented from laying eggs but periods when ERs were in short supply created crowding, which may be associated with negative fitness effects on hatching larvae. Geomorphological controls on availability of oviposition resources may have strong implications for the coexistence of species that overlap temporally in egg-laying.

Globally, many river systems are under stress due to overconsumption of water. Governments have responded with programmes to deliver environmental water to improve environmental outcomes. Although such programmes are essential, they may not be sufficient to achieve all desired environmental outcomes. The benefits of environmental water allocation may be improved using 'complementary measures', which are non-flow-based actions, such as infrastructure works, vegetation management and pest control. The value of complementary measures is recognised globally, but their ecological benefits are rarely well understood, either because there is limited experience with their application, or the importance of context- and location-specific factors make it difficult to generalise benefits. In this study, we developed an approach to evaluate complementary measures at different levels of detail as a mechanism to aid decision-making. For systems that require a rapid, high-level evaluation, we propose a score-based multi-criteria benefit assessment module. If more ecological detail is necessary, we outline a method based on conceptual models, expert elicitation and probability assessment. These results are used to populate a cumulative benefit assessment tool. The tool evaluates the benefits of proposed measures in the wider context by including variables such as flow, dependence on ongoing maintenance and additional ecological values. We illustrate our approach through application to the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia. As many water recovery programmes mature into their evaluation phases, there is an increasing need to evaluate the ecological benefits of including complementary measures in the toolkit available to policy makers.

Increasing demand for freshwater during the last century has so severely degraded many wetland ecosystems that they are some of the most seriously impacted environments in the world. Environmental flows are used as a management tool to restore parts of the hydrological regime altered by human water use, to rehabilitate these wetlands. Research and monitoring to date has focused on understanding ‘flow-ecology’ relationships, without investigating the mechanisms underlying them. We sought to understand how different basal food sources are incorporated into fish tissue in temporary wetland systems. This study provides a necessary first step toward the development of mechanistic research that investigates the effects of variation in fatty acids (FA) within the food and prey base on top predators. We added different sources of fatty acids to wetland mesocosms by adding extra food sources including redgum leachate to increase planktonic bacteria populations, cyanobacteria, green algae and biofilm matrix to observe how they were incorporated into secondary consumers. Wetland soil and water was added to replicate mesocosms, left for 28 days to produce zooplankton and then Western carp gudgeons added. There was a clear shift in the invertebrate assemblage structure following the introduction of the gudgeons. There was also a clear difference in assemblage structure and nutritional value between benthic and planktonic invertebrates. However, the addition of extra food sources did not generate differing FA profiles between treatments in the substratum fractions, invertebrates or fish after 14 days. We suggest that food sources generated within the mesocosms themselves may have outweighed any treatment effects. Using flooded wetland mesocosms potentially would have provided more realistic knowledge of the food web mechanisms of wetland inundation rather than feeding zooplankton fed specific primary food sources to fish. However, future experiments attempting to identify the mechanisms of the transfer of basal food sources in wetlands to secondary consumers may wish to directly feed fish primary consumers raised on specific basal food sources.

Ongoing ecosystem degradation and transformation are major threats to biodiversity. Measuring ecosystem change toward collapse relies on monitoring indicators that quantify key ecological processes. Yet little guidance is available on selection and use of indicators for ecosystem risk assessment. We reviewed indicator use in ecological studies of ecosystem collapse in marine pelagic and temperate forest ecosystems. We examined indicator-selection methods, indicator types (geographic distribution, abiotic, biotic), methods of assessing multiple indicators, and temporal quality of time series. We compared how these factors were applied in the ecological studies with how they were applied in risk assessments by using the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), for which indicators are used to estimate risk of ecosystem collapse. Ecological studies and RLE assessments rarely reported how indicators were selected, particularly in terrestrial ecosystems. Few ecological studies and RLE assessments quantified ecosystem change based on all 3 indicator types, and indicators types used differed between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Several studies used indices or multivariate analyses to assess multiple indicators simultaneously, but RLE assessments did not because as RLE guidelines advise against them. Most studies and RLE assessments used time-series data that spanned at least 30 years, which increases the probability of reliably detecting change. Limited use of indicator-selection protocols and infrequent use of all 3 indicator types may hamper accurate detection of change. To improve the value of risk assessments for informing policy and management, we recommend using explicit protocols, including conceptual models, to identify and select indicators; a range of indicators spanning distributional, abiotic, and biotic features; indices and multivariate analyses with extreme care until guidelines are developed; time series with sufficient data to increase ability to accurately diagnose directional change; data from multiple sources to support assessments; and explicitly reporting steps in the assessment process.

The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List of Ecosystems is a powerful tool for classifying threatened ecosystems, informing ecosystem management, and assessing the risk of ecosystem collapse (that is, the endpoint of ecosystem degradation). These risk assessments require explicit definitions of ecosystem collapse, which are currently challenging to implement. To bridge the gap between theory and practice, we systematically review evidence for ecosystem collapses reported in two contrasting biomes – marine pelagic ecosystems and terrestrial forests. Most studies define states of ecosystem collapse quantitatively, but few studies adequately describe initial ecosystem states or ecological transitions leading to collapse. On the basis of our review, we offer four recommendations for defining ecosystem collapse in risk assessments: (1) qualitatively defining initial and collapsed states, (2) describing collapse and recovery transitions, (3) identifying and selecting indicators of collapse, and (4) setting quantitative collapse thresholds.

Environmental flows are designed to enhance aquatic ecosystems through a variety of mechanisms; however, to date most attention has been paid to the effects on habitat quality and life-history triggers, especially for fish and vegetation. The effects of environmental flows on food webs have so far received little attention, despite food-web thinking being fundamental to understanding of river ecosystems. Understanding environmental flows in a food-web context can help scientists and policy-makers better understand and manage outcomes of flow alteration and restoration. In this paper, we consider mechanisms by which flow variability can influence and alter food webs, and place these within a conceptual and numerical modelling framework. We also review the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches to modelling the effects of hydrological management on food webs. Although classic bioenergetic models such as Ecopath with Ecosim capture many of the key features required, other approaches, such as biogeochemical ecosystem modelling, end-to-end modelling, population dynamic models, individual-based models, graph theory models, and stock assessment models are also relevant. In many cases, a combination of approaches will be useful. We identify current challenges and new directions in modelling food-web responses to hydrological variability and environmental flow management. These include better integration of food-web and hydraulic models, taking physiologically-based approaches to food quality effects, and better representation of variations in space and time that may create ecosystem control points.

Globally, there is little information on freshwater (non-tidal) wetland below ground soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks, sequestration rates and, in particular, their within-wetland variation. This basic information is critical for designing programs to sample SOC stocks and identifying areas that sequester large amounts of carbon so that they can be managed to prevent degradation and carbon loss. Here, focusing on temperate seasonally inundated freshwater wetlands in south-eastern Australia, we compared SOC stocks and sequestration rates (via radiometric dating) among wetlands, within wetland locations (High water mark, Edge and Middle), and with adjacent terrestrial locations. SOC stocks varied most among wetlands but also varied inconsistently within wetlands. Wetland SOC stocks (20.4 ± 0.1 kg C m−2) were significantly greater than adjacent terrestrial locations (13.3 ± 0.1 kg C m−2). Wetland SOC sequestration rates were similar among all locations (i.e., within a wetland, ranging from 70 g C m−2 yr−1 to 87 g C m−2 yr−1). The relative lack of difference in SOC stocks among wetland locations allows for reduced within-wetland sampling and subsequently greater replication at the wetland level, at least for temperate ephemeral freshwater wetlands, although these findings need to be confirmed over a range of wetland types. This study also produced the first estimates of temperate freshwater wetland SOC stocks and sequestration rates in Australia, and is among the first studies globally to demonstrate that seasonally inundated wetlands can sequester carbon at significant rates. It therefore provides important justification to support the protection and rehabilitation of temperate freshwater wetlands worldwide.

Detached and floating macrophytes are commonly found along beaches in Southern Australia, but few studies have investigated their associations with animals along the drift pathway, particularly in the southern hemisphere. This study investigated the colonisation by macroinvertebrates and fish of natural and artificial tagged seagrass within 6 h of release and compared this to fauna found with in situ floating macrophyte clumps netted at different distances from shore in Southern Australia. We found some evidence that more macroinvertebrates may colonise floating macrophytes at distances closer to shore (i.e., 0.25 km) potentially due to shallower depths and increased proximity of source habitats. Particular fauna may stay with macrophytes as they arrive and accumulate as wrack in the surf-zone, while others may leave for more suitable habitats. Colonisation by fish to floating macrophytes was judged more likely to be for habitat and shelter rather than food resources. This study provides some further evidence for rapid colonisation of fauna and hence an important habitat function of detached and floating macrophytes along nearshore coastlines in Southern Australia.

Given predicted increases associated with human-induced climate change, stream temperatures are likely to approach upper tolerance limits of aquatic biota within the coming decades. Little information is available regarding thermal tolerance limits of lotic fauna or mechanisms allowing fauna to persist following high temperature events (e.g. use of thermal refuges). Cold-water refuges can facilitate survival of fish in the Northern Hemisphere, but little evidence of similar refuges exists elsewhere. Planned releases of hypolimnetic, or a mixture of top and bottom, waters from reservoirs have recently been touted as a novel method to potentially ameliorate extreme temperature events. However, the feasibility of this technique has not been fully discussed in the published literature. Therefore, we present a literature review, an analysis of thermal data for some large dams in southern Australia in relation to known thermal tolerances of native fauna, and an assessment of current management practices regarding the technique. We show that hypolimnetic releases have variable impacts on water temperatures downstream of a dam, depending on size, off-take infrastructure and management practices but, even where there is an effect, knowledge gaps are too numerous for this technique to be currently feasible. Furthermore, hypolimnetic releases generally evoke negative connotations among natural resource managers, due to the occurrence of cold-water shock in some species. If knowledge gaps and limitations can be addressed, it is possible that the technique may be considered in future, so we present potential tools for future assessment, capacities and limitations and discuss potential scenarios where environmental managers might consider this technique.

Environmental watering is frequently used to achieve specific ecological objectives, such as triggering spawning or seed germination. These short-term objectives are often met, but longer-term objectives, such as population growth, may not be, especially where multiple hydrological and non-hydrological factors influence success. We propose a framework to identify these factors in space and time. Our framework steps users through identifying possible inhibiting (strictures) and supporting (promoters) factors, and placing these factors in their spatial and temporal context. This allows users to identify potential limiting factors that may require additional intervention, or render the original watering action unsustainable. We illustrate the framework with examples of a floodplain tree (black box, Eucalyptus largiflorens), colonial nesting waterbird (royal spoonbill, Platalea regia) and large-bodied migratory fish (golden perch, Macquaria ambigua). The framework explores strictures and promoters for major life-history stages, emphasising the need to support and protect all stages if objectives include population maintenance or growth. In this way, the framework can document existing mental models and can be used as the basis of a risk portfolio, a prioritisation tool or future quantitative models. Thus, the framework enables individual management actions to be better grounded in a broader context, increasing the likelihood of achieving long-term ecological objectives.

Using ecological-response models to understand and improve management of aquatic ecosystems is increasingly common. However, there are many questions about reliability and utility that can make the use of ecological modelling fraught. One critical question is how ecological-response models translate to what happens in practice. Many models purport to improve management by simulating ecological response to changing conditions. This suggests that tangible benefits (e.g. increased biodiversity) should flow when recommendations for action are implemented. But testing these links is rare and there are implications if those links are tenuous. One problem leading to a lack of congruence between models and reality can be a lack of ecological data for the system being modelled. Incomplete understanding, erroneous assumptions about drivers or degree of variability, and uncritical use of expert opinion can all result in models that may be more likely to mislead than inform. Explicit validation of models, sensitivity testing and ongoing development of novel solutions to deal with incomplete data can all assist. So, wise and critical use of ecological models provides one mechanism to increase our ability to quantify adverse effects on, and project future trajectories of, aquatic ecosystems.

An increase in plantation forestry has been linked to a reduction in streamflows in some catchments. Quantifying the relative contribution of this land-use change on streamflows can be complex when those changes occur during weather extremes such as drought. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to two sub-catchments in south-eastern Australia which have seen the introduction and establishment of plantation land use in the past 15 years, coinciding with severe drought (1997–2009). The models were both manually and auto-calibrated and produced very good fits to observed streamflow data during both calibration (1980–1991) and validation (1992–2009) periods. Sensitivity analyses indicated that the models were most sensitive to soil and groundwater parameterisation. Analysis of drought conditions on streamflows showed significant declines from long-term average streamflows, while assessment of baseflow contributions by the models indicated a mix of over- and underestimation depending on catchment and season. The modelled introduction of plantation forestry did not significantly change streamflows for a scenario which did not include the land-use change, suggesting that the modelled land-use change in the catchments was not sufficiently extensive to have an impact on streamflows despite simulating actual rates of change. The SWAT models developed by this study will be invaluable as a basis for future use in regional climate-change studies and for the assessment of land management and land-use change impact on streamflows.

New insights about nearshore dynamics came from studying the effects of regular storms in South Australia on drifting marine macrophytes, consequent wrack accumulation and associated fauna in beach surf zones across three different regions. This study examined whether the influence of storms may be more pronounced in sheltered coastal waters compared to more exposed coastlines where biota could have adaptations to persist in larger swell conditions. There were obvious regional differences for wrack species richness, abundances and assemblages that matched the attached floral subtidal landscape in each region. Consequently, invertebrates also differed amongst regions, which highlight the close affinity that some invertebrates have with drifting macrophytes. Fish were not so closely aligned to the regional patterns identified for wrack or invertebrates suggesting that many fish are using wrack accumulations as habitat but, being highly mobile, they may actively and constantly move into, out of and within these habitat features. Well-known beach-type models focused upon beach morphology may be more pertinent to the ecology of the surf zones offshore than previously thought, being the most consistent indicator of wrack accumulations and their fauna. This new evidence on the ecology of nearshore waters during storm versus calm weather in multiple regions and the subsequent influence on wrack–fauna associations in sandy-beach surf zones are important for future beach management, particularly when and where large wrack accumulations occur.

Ongoing ecosystem degradation and transformation are major threats to biodiversity. Measuring ecosystem change toward collapse relies on monitoring indicators that quantify key ecological processes. Yet little guidance is available on selection and use of indicators for ecosystem risk assessment. We reviewed indicator use in ecological studies of ecosystem collapse in marine pelagic and temperate forest ecosystems. We examined indicator-selection methods, indicator types (geographic distribution, abiotic, biotic), methods of assessing multiple indicators, and temporal quality of time series. We compared how these factors were applied in the ecological studies with how they were applied in risk assessments by using the International Union for Conservation of Nature's Red List of Ecosystems (RLE), for which indicators are used to estimate risk of ecosystem collapse. Ecological studies and RLE assessments rarely reported how indicators were selected, particularly in terrestrial ecosystems. Few ecological studies and RLE assessments quantified ecosystem change based on all 3 indicator types, and indicators types used differed between marine and terrestrial ecosystems. Several studies used indices or multivariate analyses to assess multiple indicators simultaneously, but RLE assessments did not because as RLE guidelines advise against them. Most studies and RLE assessments used time-series data that spanned at least 30 years, which increases the probability of reliably detecting change. Limited use of indicator-selection protocols and infrequent use of all 3 indicator types may hamper accurate detection of change. To improve the value of risk assessments for informing policy and management, we recommend using explicit protocols, including conceptual models, to identify and select indicators; a range of indicators spanning distributional, abiotic, and biotic features; indices and multivariate analyses with extreme care until guidelines are developed; time series with sufficient data to increase ability to accurately diagnose directional change; data from multiple sources to support assessments; and explicitly reporting steps in the assessment process.

Environmental flows are used to restore elements of the hydrological regime altered by human use of water. One of the primary justifications and purposes for environmental flows is the maintenance of target species populations but, paradoxically, there has been little emphasis on incorporating the food-web and trophic dynamics that determine population-level responses into the monitoring and evaluation of environmental flow programs. We develop a generic framework for incorporating trophic dynamics into monitoring programs to identify the food-web linkages between hydrological regimes and population-level objectives of environmental flows. These linkages form the basis for objective setting, ecological targets and indicator selection that are necessary for planning monitoring programs with a rigorous scientific basis. Because there are multiple facets of trophic dynamics that influence energy production and transfer through food webs, the specific objectives of environmental flows need to be defined during the development of monitoring programs. A multitude of analytical methods exist that each quantify distinct aspects of food webs (e.g. energy production, prey selection, energy assimilation), but no single method can provide a basis for holistic understanding of food webs. Our paper critiques a range of analytical methods for quantifying attributes of food webs to inform the setting, monitoring and evaluation of trophic outcomes of environmental flows and advance the conceptual understanding of trophic dynamics in river-floodplain systems.

Determining the time of day that animals initiate and end migration, as well as variation in diel movement patterns during migration, provides insights into the types of strategy used to maximise energy efficiency and ensure successful completion of migration. However, obtaining this level of detail has been difficult for long-distance migratory marine species. Thus, we investigated whether the large volume of highly accurate locations obtained by Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS transmitters could be used to identify the time of day that adult green (n = 8 turtles, 9487 locations) and loggerhead (n = 46 turtles, 47,588 locations) sea turtles initiate and end migration, along with potential resting strategies during migration. We found that departure from and arrival at breeding, stopover and foraging sites consistently occurred during the daytime, which is consistent with previous findings suggesting that turtles might use solar visual cues for orientation. Only seven turtles made stopovers (of up to 6 days and all located close to the start or end of migration) during migration, possibly to rest and/or refuel; however, observations of day versus night speed of travel indicated that turtles might use other mechanisms to rest. For instance, turtles travelled 31% slower at night compared to day during their oceanic crossings. Furthermore, within the first 24 h of entering waters shallower than 100 m towards the end of migration, some individuals travelled 72% slower at night, repeating this behaviour intermittently (each time for a one-night duration at 3–6 day intervals) until reaching the foraging grounds. Thus, access to data-rich, highly accurate Argos-linked Fastloc-GPS provided information about differences in day versus night activity at different stages in migration, allowing us, for the first time, to compare the strategies used by a marine vertebrate with terrestrial land-based and flying species.

Lectrides varians (Mosely) is a large, ecologically-important, caddisfly found in perennial and intermittent streams throughout much of eastern Australia. We conducted a population genetic analysis to investigate the dispersal potential of L. varians, building on previous works that have assessed life-history traits associated with drought resistance. Genetic analyses of L. varians from the Grampians region of Victoria, based on mitochondrial DNA sequence data, revealed extensive gene flow and a lack of genetic structure across the sample range (Φ ST = 0.04). This suggests that the species is a strong disperser and is likely to be resilient to increased drying and habitat fragmentation under climate change considering other known resistance traits. However, during this study, two divergent genotypes were identified, indicating a potential species complex. A comprehensive phylogenetic analysis of L. varians across its current range was subsequently performed, confirming the species is indeed paraphyletic, consisting of one lineage that is restricted to the Grampians National Park and the other being widespread throughout south-eastern Australia. Further analyses revealed consistent morphological differences between these lineages supporting the notion that L. varians is a species complex. We discuss the implications of these findings with regard to conservation and taxonomy of this important invertebrate group.

Predicting ecological response to climate change is often limited by a lack of relevant local data from which directly applicable mechanistic models can be developed. This limits predictions to qualitative assessments or simplistic rules of thumb in data-poor regions, making management of the relevant systems difficult. We demonstrate a method for developing quantitative predictions of ecological response in data-poor ecosystems based on a space-for-time substitution, using distant, well-studied systems across an inherent climatic gradient to predict ecological response. Changes in biophysical data across the spatial gradient are used to generate quantitative hypotheses of temporal ecological responses that are then tested in a target region. Transferability of predictions among distant locations, the novel outcome of this method, is demonstrated via simple quantitative relationships that identify direct and indirect impacts of climate change on physical, chemical and ecological variables using commonly available data sources. Based on a limited subset of data, these relationships were demonstrably plausible in similar yet distant (>2000 km) ecosystems. Quantitative forecasts of ecological change based on climate-ecosystem relationships from distant regions provides a basis for research planning and informed management decisions, especially in the many ecosystems for which there are few data. This application of gradient studies across domains - to investigate ecological response to climate change - allows for the quantification of effects on potentially numerous, interacting and complex ecosystem components and how they may vary, especially over long time periods (e.g. decades). These quantitative and integrated long-term predictions will be of significant value to natural resource practitioners attempting to manage data-poor ecosystems to prevent or limit the loss of ecological value. The method is likely to be applicable to many ecosystem types, providing a robust scientific basis for estimating likely impacts of future climate change in ecosystems where no such method currently exists.

There are a growing number of large-scale freshwater ecological restoration projects world-wide. Assessments of the benefits and costs of restoration often exclude an analysis of uncertainty in the modelled outcomes. To address this shortcoming we explicitly model the uncertainties associated with measures of ecosystem health in the estuary of the Murray–Darling Basin, Australia and how those measures may change with the implementation of a Basin-wide Plan to recover water to improve ecosystem health. Specifically, we compare two metrics – one simple and one more complex – to manage end-of-system flow requirements for one ecosystem asset in the Basin, the internationally important Coorong saline wetlands. Our risk assessment confirms that the ecological conditions in the Coorong are likely to improve with implementation of the Basin Plan; however, there are risks of a Type III error (where the correct answer is found for the wrong question) associated with using the simple metric for adaptive management.

Exploratory investigations of optimal sampling designs are a critical component of the decision-making process in ecology where inherent natural variation can lead to erroneous conclusions if left unexamined. Pilot studies and exploratory analyses that investigate the precision of sampling regimes may reduce the chances of erroneous results and can be used to optimise processing time in larger ecological research programs. In our study, we calculated optimal precision estimates for sampling macroinvertebrates and ichthyofauna in surf-zone wrack accumulations by investigating the precision of the mean for sub-samples of seine nets and also for the number of replicate seine nets to guide future sampling regimes. We discovered that the processing time for individual seine net samples could be reduced by 50% using sub-sampling and that time to process replicate seine net samples could be reduced by 25% while maintaining acceptable precision. In future, we suggest that the use of pilot studies with similar exploratory approaches should be less of an exception and more a critical component of ecological investigations, particularly in under-studied or newly-developing areas of research. Further, these types of exploratory approaches are crucially important in a variety of extremely patchy environments where variability is likely to be high.

Increasing difficulties associated with balancing consumptive demands for water and achieving ecological benefits in aquatic ecosystems provide opportunities for new ecosystem-scale ecological response models to assist managers. Using an Australian estuary as a case study, we developed a novel approach to create a data-derived state-and-transition model. The model identifies suites of co-occurring birds, fish, benthic invertebrates and aquatic macrophytes (as ‘states’) and the changing physico-chemical conditions that are associated with each (‘transitions’). The approach first used cluster analysis to identify sets of co-occurring biota. Differences in the physico-chemical data associated with each state were identified using classification trees, with the biotic distinctness of the resultant statistical model tested using analysis of similarities. The predictive capacity of the model was tested using new cases. Two models were created using different time-steps (annual and quarterly) and then combined to capture both longer-term trends and more-recent declines in ecological condition. We identified eight ecosystem states that were differentiated by a mix of water-quantity and water-quality variables. Each ecosystem state represented a distinct biotic assemblage under well-defined physico-chemical conditions. Two ‘basins of attraction’ were identified, with four tidally-influenced states, and another four independent of tidal influence. Within each basin, states described a continuum of relative health, manifest through declining taxonomic diversity and abundances. The main threshold determining relative health was whether freshwater flows had occurred in the region during the previous 339 days. Canonical analyses of principal coordinates tested the predictive capacity of the model and demonstrated that the variance in the environmental data set was well captured (87%) with 52% of the variance in the biological data set also captured. The latter increased to >80% when long- and short-term biological data were analysed separately, indicating that the model described the available data for the Coorong well. This approach thus created a data-derived, multivariate model, where neither states nor transitions were determined a priori. The approach did not over-fit the data, was robust to patchy or missing data, the choice of initial clustering technique and random errors in the biological data set, and was well-received by local natural resource managers. However, the model did not capture causal relationships and requires additional testing, particularly during future episodes of ecological recovery. The approach shows significant promise for simplifying management definitions of ecological condition and, via scenario analyses, can be used to assist in manager decision-making of large, complex aquatic ecosystems in the future.

Threshold models are becoming important in determining the ecological consequences of our actions within the environment and have a key role in setting bounds on targets used by nat- ural resource managers. We have been using thresholds and related concepts adapted from the mul- tiple stable-states literature to model ecosystem response in the Coorong, the estuary for Australia's largest river. Our modelling approach is based upon developing a state-and-transition model, with the states defined by the biota and the transitions defined by a classification and regression tree (CART) analysis of the environmental data for the region. Here we explore the behaviour of thresh- olds within that model. Managers tend to plan for a set of often arbitrarily-derived thresholds in their natural resource management. We attempt to assess how the precision afforded by analyses such as CART translates into ecological outcomes, and explicitly trial several approaches to understanding thresholds and transitions in our model and how they might be relevant for management. We con- clude that the most promising approach would be a mixture of further modelling (using past behav- iour to predict future degradation) in conjunction with targeted experiments to confirm the results. Our case study of the Coorong is further developed, particularly for the modelling stages of the protocol, to provide recommendations to improve natural resource management strategies that are currently in use.

Wrack accumulates commonly in surf zones of sandy beaches and can be a semipermanent feature. Very few studies have investigated the trophic pathways associated with wrack accumulations in sandy beach surf zones, despite their potential importance to nearshore food webs. In the present study, we were specifically interested in determining the fish–wrack trophic associations in the nearshore. Macrophytes, macroinvertebrates and fish were sampled from drifting wrack at two sites with different macrophyte compositions (i.e. algae v. an algae–seagrass mix) in South Australia. The gut contents of fish were sampled, and the δ13C and δ15N stable isotope signatures of fish, macroinvertebrates and macrophytes were analysed. Using both the stable isotope and diet data, we identified that fish are feeding among wrack accumulations, but some unexplained trophic pathways suggest that fish are also likely to be foraging over multiple habitats elsewhere for food. In contrast, there was more evidence that grazing macroinvertebrates may be feeding on and around macrophytes within the accumulations, as well as using them as habitat. Thus, the present study established some baseline trophic pathways associated with wrack accumulations in sandy beach surf zones. Given the modest evidence for use of wrack as a food source, the lower trophic levels of the food webs identified remain unknown and should be an area for future research.

Over the last ten years, there has been a major decline in the condition of the Coorong, the estuary for Australia's largest river system, the River Murray. This decline is due to prolonged drought combined with past management of the Murray-Darling Basin. In order to successfully manage the estuary in the future, predictions are needed to evaluate the effect of possible management actions on the Coorong ecosystem under a variety of climatic scenarios. The alternative stable state concept can be extended to non-equilibrium systems, allowing for modelling of condition. Rather than constraining the definition of alternative states to those that are stable, we identify a suite of ecosystem states that occur naturally, but also include those that arise during the decline of the system. Eight distinct states were defined, with thresholds between them based on a combination of environmental characteristics associated with co-occurring biota. Threshold values for environmental characteristics define the transition rules between states. Mapping these states allows us to characterise the condition of the estuary in both space and time. The distribution of these states, and the diversity of states supported can be used to create an ecosystem condition index. By calculating the value of the index over time, the trajectory of ecosystem condition merges, and predictions can be made about future condition, should the current situation continue. This trajectory modelling can then form a baseline against which to evaluate possible management actions under a variety of climatic scenarios to identify those most likely to improve the condition of the Coorong.

Historically, perceived increases in erosion and flooding levels have been attributed to in-stream wood and used to justify its removal from streams and rivers around the world. More recently, recognition of the adverse morphological and biological impacts caused by this removal has led to rehabilitation projects that actively reintroduce wood to streams. However, a perception remains amongst some members of the general community that wood additions increase the likelihood of flooding and erosion in the target streams. To test whether there was a basis for this perception, we experimentally added wood to eight streams across southwest Victoria and Gippsland, Australia. The velocity, stage and bed and bank erosion rates were compared with those of unaltered reaches. We detected localized changes in the velocity and stage parameters but that these were unlikely to operate at the reach-scale. Bed erosion rates, where maximum erosion was assumed if pins were not recovered, showed increased erosion due to wood additions but this was not supported by channel shape analyses, which identified short-term increases in the variability of the channel shape, followed by longer-term stability at treatment sites. We found no clear evidence of increased longer-term rates of erosion or flooding associated with the introduction of wood to streams over the 18-month study period. It remains important to carefully design rehabilitation works, but the lack of adverse effects on stream morphology and increased variability of the in-stream environment suggests improved habitat diversity, supporting the use of wood addition as a stream rehabilitation technique. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Conventionally, most research and restoration involving in-stream wood focuses on large wood (> 0.1 m diameter), excluding any smaller pieces. However, this may neglect a major component of in-stream habitat, as small wood can constitute the majority of pieces, particularly in small streams. The ecological benefi t of large wood is well established, but corresponding benefi ts associated with small wood (0.05-0.1 m diameter) have not been demonstrated. To test the effect of wood dimension on macroinvertebrate community composition, we compared the fauna occupying large wood habitats with that occupying small wood at eight streams in south-eastern Australia. The relationships between wood dimensions and its macroinvertebrate fauna were complex. Community composi- tion did not vary with wood dimension, and no signifi cant correlations were found between other macroinvertebrate attributes (including family richness and evenness) and wood dimension, including diameter. However, analysis of covariance suggested that large wood supported a greater diversity and abundance of macroinvertebrates, indicat- ing that the method of analysis could infl uence the result. Adjustment for differences in sample dimension using rarefaction determined that these fi ndings were likely to be a result of the surface area and volumes sampled varying with the dimension of the wood. Per unit surface area, and per unit volume, small wood supported a similar number of families to large wood. Thus we conclude that, relative to the available surface area, small and large wood can be equivalent in their contribution to the available habitat in a stream. Therefore, the potential value of small wood as a habitat resource warrants its explicit consideration for inclusion in ecological and rehabilitation studies.

Worldwide, the ecological condition of streams and rivers has been impaired by agricultural practices such as broadscale modification of catchments, high nutrient and sediment inputs, loss of riparian vegetation, and altered hydrology. Typical responses include channel incision, excessive sedimentation, declining water quality, and loss of in-stream habitat complexity and biodiversity. We review these impacts, focusing on the potential benefits and limitations of wood reintroduction as a transitional rehabilitation technique in these agricultural landscapes using Australian examples. In streams, wood plays key roles in shaping velocity and sedimentation profiles, forming pools, and strengthening banks. In the simplified channels typical of many agricultural streams, wood provides habitat for fauna, substrate for biofilms, and refuge from predators and flow extremes, and enhances in-stream diversity of fish and macroinvertebrates.Most previous restoration studies involving wood reintroduction have been in forested landscapes, but some results might be extrapolated to agricultural streams. In these studies, wood enhanced diversity of fish and macroinvertebrates, increased storage of organic material and sediment, and improved bed and bank stability. Failure to meet restoration objectives appeared most likely where channel incision was severe and in highly degraded environments. Methods for wood reintroduction have logistical advantages over many other restoration techniques, being relatively low cost and low maintenance. Wood reintroduction is a viable transitional restoration technique for agricultural landscapes likely to rapidly improve stream condition if sources of colonists are viable and water quality is suitable.

25 páginas, 8 figuras, 6 tablas., [EN] An understanding of risks to biodiversity is needed for planning action to slow current rates of decline and secure ecosystem services for future human use. Although the IUCN Red List criteria provide an effective assessment protocol for species, a standard global assessment of risks to higher levels of biodiversity is currently limited. In 2008, IUCN initiated development of risk assessment criteria to support a global Red List of ecosystems. We present a new conceptual model for ecosystem risk assessment founded on a synthesis of relevant ecological theories. To support the model, we review key elements of ecosystem definition and introduce the concept of ecosystem collapse, an analogue of species extinction. The model identifies four distributional and functional symptoms of ecosystem risk as a basis for assessment criteria: A) rates of decline in ecosystem distribution; B) restricted distributions with continuing declines or threats; C) rates of environmental (abiotic) degradation; and D) rates of disruption to biotic processes. A fifth criterion, E) quantitative estimates of the risk of ecosystem collapse, enables integrated assessment of multiple processes and provides a conceptual anchor for the other criteria. We present the theoretical rationale for the construction and interpretation of each criterion. The assessment protocol and threat categories mirror those of the IUCN Red List of species. A trial of the protocol on terrestrial, subterranean, freshwater and marine ecosystems from around the world shows that its concepts are workable and its outcomes are robust, that required data are available, and that results are consistent with assessments carried out by local experts and authorities. The new protocol provides a consistent, practical and theoretically grounded framework for establishing a systematic Red List of the world’s ecosystems. This will complement the Red List of species and strengthen global capacity to report on and monitor the status of biodiversity

Wood is an important structural component of many streams, and its reinstatement is increasingly part of river rehabilitation efforts. Determining how much wood to reintroduce, and of what size, can be difficult. A census of the natural wood load was undertaken in two high-rainfall regions of southeastern Australia, to develop a benchmark for use in rehabilitation projects in agricultural landscapes. The contributions of small and large wood and the use of stream characteristics to predict pre-disturbance loading are investigated. Over a 50 m reach, an average wood load of 70.5 pieces was recorded, with a volume of 0.021 m3/m2 and surface area of 0.386 m2/m2. Load was relatively consistent within and between regions and was comparable to loads reported elsewhere, supporting the use of local average loads as a benchmark. Small wood contributed significantly to the number of pieces and surface area of wood within study reaches, but volume was dominated by the contribution of large wood. Correlations between load and stream characteristics are complex and have not been demonstrated to be predictive. Thus, we argue that it is preferable to determine a benchmark from nearby streams in reference condition.

Effective ecosystem risk assessment relies on a conceptual understanding of ecosystem dynamics and the synthesis of multiple lines of evidence. Risk assessment protocols and ecosystem models integrate limited observational data with threat scenarios, making them valuable tools for monitoring ecosystem status and diagnosing key mechanisms of decline to be addressed by management. We applied the IUCN Red List of Ecosystems criteria to quantify the risk of collapse of the Meso-American Reef, a unique ecosystem containing the second longest barrier reef in the world. We collated a wide array of empirical data (field and remotely sensed), and used a stochastic ecosystem model to backcast past ecosystem dynamics, as well as forecast future ecosystem dynamics under 11 scenarios of threat. The ecosystem is at high risk from mass bleaching in the coming decades, with compounding effects of ocean acidification, hurricanes, pollution and fishing. The overall status of the ecosystem is Critically Endangered (plausibly Vulnerable to Critically Endangered), with notable differences among Red List criteria and data types in detecting the most severe symptoms of risk. Our case study provides a template for assessing risks to coral reefs and for further application of ecosystem models in risk assessment.

Investment in and operation of flow control infrastructure such as dams, weirs, and regulators can help increase both the health of regulated river ecosystems and the social values derived from them. This requires high-quality and high-resolution spatiotemporal ecohydrological and socioeconomic information. We developed such an information base for integrated environmental flow management in the River Murray in South Australia (SA). A hydrological model was used to identify spatiotemporal inundation dynamics. River ecosystems were classified and mapped as ecohydrological units. Ecological response models were developed to link three aspects of environmental flows (flood duration, timing, and inter-flood period) to the health responses of 16 ecological components at various life stages. Potential infrastructure investments (flow control regulators and irrigation pump relocation) were located by interpreting LiDAR elevation data, digital orthophotography, and wetland mapping information; and infrastructure costs were quantified using engineering cost models. Social values were quantified at a coarse scale as total economic value based on a national survey of willingness-to-pay for four key ecological assets; and at a local scale using mapped ecosystem service values. This information was integrated using a constrained, nonlinear, mixed-integer, compromise programming optimization model and solved using a stochastic Tabu search algorithm. We tested the model uncertainty and sensitivity using 390 Monte Carlo model runs at varying weights of ecological health vs. social values. Integrating ecohydrological and socioeconomic information identified environmental flow management regimes that efficiently achieved both ecological and social objectives. Using an ecologically weighted efficient and socially weighted efficient scenario, we illustrated model outputs including a suite of cost-effective infrastructure investments and an operational plan for new and existing flow control structures including dam releases, weir height manipulation, and regulator operation on a monthly time step. Both the investments and management regimes differed substantially between the two scenarios, suggesting that the choice of weightings on ecological and social objectives is important. This demonstrates the benefit of integrating high-quality and high-resolution spatiotemporal ecohydrological and socioeconomic information for guiding the investment in and operational management of environmental flows. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Management of natural resources, particularly water, increasingly requires that likely benefits of particular actions (e.g., allocating an environmental flow) are quantified in advance. Therefore, new techniques are required that enable those potential benefits to be objectively compared among competing options for management (e.g., compared to a "do nothing" scenario). Scenario modeling is one method for developing such an objective comparison. We used existing hydrologic, hydrodynamic, and ecosystem response models for a case study location, the Coorong, an inverse estuary in South Australia, to illustrate the potential for such scenario modeling to inform natural resource management. We modeled a set of 12 scenarios that included different levels of water extraction, potential future climate change, and sea-level change, thereby enabling a comparison of the different drivers of possible future reductions in water availability in the Coorong. We discovered that potential future climate change combined with current extraction levels has the capacity to devastate the ecology of the Coorong, but also that much of the degradation could be averted by reducing upstream extractions of water. The inclusion of possible sea-level change had a surprising effect, whereby higher sea levels increased hydrodynamic connectivity between the Coorong's two lagoons. Increased hydrodynamic connectivity limited the occurrence of extremely low water levels and high salinities due to evapoconcentration that were simulated for dry future climates in the absence of sea-level rise. These findings strongly suggest that future ecological degradation in the Coorong is not a foregone conclusion, and that management decisions regarding water allocations upstream will determine the ecological future of this coastal lagoon.

[1] Wetland and floodplain ecosystems along many regulated rivers are highly stressed, primarily due to a lack of environmental flows of appropriate magnitude, frequency, duration, and timing to support ecological functions. In the absence of increased environmental flows, the ecological health of river ecosystems can be enhanced by the operation of existing and new flow-control infrastructure (weirs and regulators) to return more natural environmental flow regimes to specific areas. However, determining the optimal investment and operation strategies over time is a complex task due to several factors including the multiple environmental values attached to wetlands, spatial and temporal heterogeneity and dependencies, nonlinearity, and time-dependent decisions. This makes for a very large number of decision variables over a long planning horizon. The focus of this paper is the development of a nonlinear integer programming model that accommodates these complexities. The mathematical objective aims to return the natural flow regime of key components of river ecosystems in terms of flood timing, flood duration, and interflood period. We applied a 2-stage recursive heuristic using tabu search to solve the model and tested it on the entire South Australian River Murray floodplain. We conclude that modern meta-heuristics can be used to solve the very complex nonlinear problems with spatial and temporal dependencies typical of environmental flow allocation in regulated river ecosystems. The model has been used to inform the investment in, and operation of, flow-control infrastructure in the South Australian River Murray.