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This paper analyzes the determinants of economic growth in coastal economies with the purpose of highlighting the impact of human activity pressure on mangrove blue carbon (BC). We use a Bayesian Model Averaging-based estimation technique to fit alternative growth theories to 1960-2009 data on a BC sample of 23 coastal countries and a worldwide (WW) sample of 83 countries. In addition to having high mangrove blue carbon climate change mitigation potential, a representative country from the BC sample possesses features commonly associated with developing countries. Moreover, such a country’s natural capital per capita has decreased by more than 50% during the half-century span of our data and its dependence on natural capital is almost twice as high as that of its WW counterpart. We find that the neoclassical theory, through income and investment in physical capital, demography, macroeconomic policy, and natural capital theories perform well in explaining growth in BC countries. In contrast, investment in physical capital and proxies for the macroeconomic policy and natural capital theories are found not to be good predictors of growth when using the WW sample of countries. These results put the finger on the critical problem of existing and potential anthropogenic pressure that coastal areas with BC are and can be subject to due to land conversion for agriculture, aquaculture, farming and other run-offs, marine resources exploitation, uncontrolled sewage, marine resources direct exploitation, and coastal constructions and public works related to natural capital exports. This admittedly grim picture of the coasts draws attention to at least two policy questions, namely, whether central governments ought to give local policy makers and communities incentives to promote nature-based solutions to climate change mitigation and the extent to which international financial institutions should provide financial support for such initiatives in developing countries.

Directeur de publication : Denis Bailly; International audience; L’impact du bruit sous-marin sur la vie marine suscite de plus en plus d’inquiétudes, en raison de l’augmentation constante du nombre et de la diversité des activités humaines en mer. En particulier, les niveaux de bruit chroniques provenant de la navigation commerciale ont augmenté de manière significative au cours des 60 dernières années et ils devraient continuer à augmenter dans les années à venir. En réponse à cette préoccupation, les Nations Unies ont signé un engagement volontaire pour réduire le bruit sousmarin (#OceanAction18553), qui reconnaît l’impact négatif que le bruit de la navigation peut avoir sur la vie marine. Dans ce policy brief, nous examinons le rôle des ports dans la réduction de ce type de bruit et illustrons nos résultats à l’aide du cas d’étude du port du Havre.

Directeur de publication : Denis Bailly; International audience; L’impact du bruit sous-marin sur la vie marine suscite de plus en plus d’inquiétudes, en raison de l’augmentation constante du nombre et de la diversité des activités humaines en mer. En particulier, les niveaux de bruit chroniques provenant de la navigation commerciale ont augmenté de manière significative au cours des 60 dernières années et ils devraient continuer à augmenter dans les années à venir. En réponse à cette préoccupation, les Nations Unies ont signé un engagement volontaire pour réduire le bruit sousmarin (#OceanAction18553), qui reconnaît l’impact négatif que le bruit de la navigation peut avoir sur la vie marine. Dans ce policy brief, nous examinons le rôle des ports dans la réduction de ce type de bruit et illustrons nos résultats à l’aide du cas d’étude du port du Havre.

In a dataset on 83 countries covering the years 1960 through 2009, we find a negative indirect effect of the share of renewable natural capital in wealth on economic growth transmitted through demographic factors, more specifically, population fertility. In contrast, in countries with lower income inequality and higher institutional quality, the share of non-renewable natural capital in wealth has a direct positive impact on growth. We also find that countries with higher income per capita, human development, and institutional quality have a higher share of renewable natural capital per capita, but a lower share of renewable natural capital in wealth. Renewable natural capital is thus valuable for the population and of primary concern for empowered countries, even though it contributes less to wealth and economic growth. Our results raise serious questions about the way wealth and growth are defined in economics when one investigates the impact of natural capital and point to the importance of preserving natural capital, particularly, in less developed countries.

En esta tesis, exploramos los marcos macroeconómicos y contables para motivar la integración de los ecosistemas marinos y costeros dentro de la infraestructura básica necesaria para sostener la actividad económica. En el primer capítulo, explicamos las razones por las que desarrollamos este tema. En el segundo capítulo, analizamos si el capital natural renovable y no renovable son determinantes sólidos del crecimiento económico. Encontramos alguna evidencia de un impacto indirecto negativo del capital natural renovable sobre el crecimiento económico a través de la fertilidad humana. Este es el caso en particular de los países con mayores niveles de desarrollo humano, donde las tasas de fecundidad seguirían aumentando en la segunda fase de la transición demográfica. Estos resultados sugieren que encontramos evidencia de la ‘trampa malthusiana’, donde la abundancia de recursos estimularía el crecimiento de la población, lo que eventualmente traería la producción per cápita de recursos a su nivel original. En cambio, el aporte del capital natural no renovable en la riqueza nacional tiene un impacto positivo directo en el crecimiento económico en países con menor desigualdad de ingresos y mayor calidad institucional. Este resultado refleja el efecto de la acumulación de capital en la economía nacional, una vez que las restricciones de capacidad se relajan. En el tercer capítulo, destacamos los mecanismos a través de los cuales el océano y las costas desempeñan un papel clave en la regulación del clima y en la reducción de las emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero, las intervenciones para la mitigación del cambio climático en las costas teniendo retornos a corto plazo. En base a los datos sobre los manglares, demostramos que los proyectos de mitigación del cambio climático en las costas pueden desempeñar un papel importante dentro de los esfuerzos globales de mitigación y compartimos una taxonomía de países en función de su potencial de mitigación del cambio climático y del precio de carbono equilibrado para identificar áreas prioritarias de intervención. Sobre la base de estos resultados, en el cuarto capítulo nos centramos en los factores determinantes del crecimiento económico en los países con alta exposición a los riesgos costeros y con alto potencial de mitigación de los efectos del cambio climático a nivel costero, dadas las posibles sinergias entre las estrategias de adaptación y de mitigación basadas en la naturaleza. En el quinto capítulo, examinamos países con alta biodiversidad marina, a través de la extensión de los arrecifes de coral. En comparación con una base de datos mundial, las políticas macroeconómicas y el capital natural son determinantes adicionales del crecimiento económico en estos tipos de países costeros. Existen fuertes evidencias históricas sobre el papel de las políticas macroeconómicas y los recursos naturales no renovables en los flujos comerciales y en el crecimiento económico en los países costeros. Ambos factores, junto con la demografía, destacan las presiones a las que están sujetas las zonas costeras como la construcción y las obras públicas, el crecimiento de la población y el urbanismo. Además de estos resultados, encontramos que la educación juega un papel importante en los países con biodiversidad marina. En particular, la diversificación de la riqueza de capital natural mediante la inversión en educación y, más generalmente, en capital intangible puede aumentar el crecimiento económico, especialmente en países con niveles muy altos de biodiversidad marina. Por último, en el sexto capítulo, basándonos en una encuesta realizada a miembros de las oficinas de estadística, ministerios, así como a expertos independientes a nivel mundial, constatamos que se hace un uso muy escaso de las cuentas de capital natural para conformar las políticas públicas, sobre todo en los países en desarrollo. Los obstáculos más relevantes son la falta de apoyo político de las personas clave y la falta de liderazgo institucional que no puede promover el uso por otros ministerios. En lo que respecta a los países en desarrollo, el factor que se considera más relevante para explicar el escaso uso de las cuentas de capital natural es la etapa en la que se encuentra el e desarrollo del país. Un resultado clave derivado de la encuesta realizada es la necesidad de evaluar el valor agregado de las cuentas de capital natural con respecto a las estadísticas. ABSTRACT In this thesis, we explore macroeconomic and accounting frameworks to motivate the integration of marine and coastal ecosystems within the basic infrastructure required to sustain economic activity. In the first chapter, we put forward the reasons for developing such framework. In the second chapter, we analyse whether renewable and non-renewable natural capital are robust determinants of economic growth.We find some evidence of an indirect negative impact of renewable natural capital on economic growth through human fertility. This is particularly the case for countries with higher levels of human development, where fertility rates would be still rising in the second-phase of the demographic transition. These results suggest that we find evidence of the ‘Malthusian trap’ where the resource abundance would encourage population growth, which would eventually bring the per capita supply of resources back to its original level. In contrast, the share of non-renewable natural capital in wealth has a direct positive impact on economic growth in countries with lower income inequality and higher institutional quality. This result reflects the effect of capital accumulation in the domestic economy, as capacity constraints are relaxed. In the third chapter, we highlight the mechanisms through which the ocean and coasts play a key role on climate regulation, and on the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions, with climate change mitigation interventions in coasts having returns in the short-term. We show that climate change mitigation projects in coasts can play a significant role within overall mitigation efforts, and we share a country-taxonomy for mangrove countries according to their climate change mitigation potential and their break-even carbon price to identify priority areas for intervention. Based on these results, in the fourth chapter, we focus on the determinants of economic growth in countries with high exposure to coastal risks and with high coastal climate change mitigation potential. This is due to the potential synergies between nature-based adaptation and mitigation strategies. In the fifth chapter, we examine countries with high marine biodiversity, through the extension of coral reef resources. Compared to a worldwide data set, macroeconomic policies and natural capital are additional determinants of economic growth in these three types of coastal countries. There is strong historical evidence on the role of macroeconomic policies and non-renewable natural resources in trade flows and economic growth in coastal countries. Both factors, together with demography, highlight the pressures that coastal areas are subject to such as construction and public works, population growth and urbanisation. Besides these results, we find that education plays an important role in countries with marine biodiversity. In particular, diversifying away from natural capital wealth by investing in education and, more generally, in intangible capital can enhance economic growth, particularly in countries with very high levels of marine biodiversity. Finally, in the sixth chapter, based on a survey for statistical offices, ministries and independent experts worldwide, we find that there is very little use of natural capital accounts for public policy decisions and, more so, in developing countries. The most relevant obstacles are the lack of political support by key people and institutional leadership being unable to promote policy use by other ministries. Concerning developing countries, the factor which is considered as the most relevant in preventing the use of natural capital accounts for policy making is the stage of development of the country. A key result of the survey is the need to evaluate the value-added of natural capital accounts with respect to official statistics.

International audience

The aim of this paper is to highlight empirically some important worldwide differences in the impact of privatization of the fixed-line telecommunications operator on network expansion, tariffs, and efficiency during the 1985-2007 period for a large panel of countries. Our work suggests that the divergent results in the empirical literature on the performance of the privatization reform can be explained to a large extent by cross-regional heterogeneity. We find that the impact of privatization on outcomes is significantly positive in OECD and African resource scarce coastal countries, weakly positive in Latin American and the Caribbean countries, and strongly negative in African resource rich and African resource scarce landlocked countries. The results presented in this paper thus challenge the idea that there is a unique model of reform for infrastructure sectors that is equally applicable across regions and countries.

This paper discusses the link between political accountability, regarded as an important aspect of institutional design, and infrastructure regulation that has been emphasized in the recent literature on the role of institutions in economic development. We report on the findings and lessons drawn from an analysis of telecommunications data covering the period 1985-1999 on two sets of countries; one composed of 29 developing countries and another of 23 developed countries. The main point highlighted by the analysis is that infrastructure regulation in a given country cannot be independent of the institutional environment, in particular, the degree of political accountability that supports the country’s institutions. The argument is demonstrated by means of an econometric estimation of dynamic panel data models that shows evidence of a significant effect of pro- political accountability factors on regulatory performance as reflected in measures of sector output and efficiency. Expectedly enough, this effect is found to be more pronounced in the developing countries data set. A key policy implication of this result is that efforts to enhance institutional quality and support politically accountable systems in developing countries should yield large benefits for infrastructure regulation.

In this paper, we present the role of information communications and the Internet, as tools for the deployment of innovative applications for Africa, showing that this is not an African matter since the same phenomenon took place fairly recently in the OECD countries. We then describe the work that remains to go for Africa to achieve full Internet access and usage, emphasizing in particular the role of governments in the use of public funds to create an environment facilitating the deployment of local content. Furthermore, we emphatise that there should be a paradigm shift in donors strategies by integrating broadband into human development but also into economic progress. Finally, we conclude by stressing the urgent need for engagement in peer learning.

This paper has two related objectives. First, it seeks to identify the key determinants of some policies that have been at the heart of the reforms of the telecommunications industry in developing countries, namely, liberalization, privatization, and the (re)structuring of regulation. Second, it attempts to estimate the extent to which these policies have translated into actual deployment of telecommunications infrastructure. This simultaneous investigation is conducted by means of an econometric analysis of a 1985-1999 time-series-cross-sectional database on 86 developing countries. Sectoral as well as institutional and financial factors are found to be important determinants of the actual reforms implemented. We uncover a positive relationship between the decision to introduce competition in the digital cellular segment and the growth of the fixed-line segment, suggesting that these two segments have benefited from each other. We also find that countries facing increasing institutional risk and financial constraints are more likely to introduce competition in the digital cellular segment and to privatize the fixed-line incumbent, these policies being economically attractive to both investors and governments. In turn, these policies are those that enhance the deployment of fixed-line infrastructure. In contrast, competition in the analogue cellular segment and the creation of a separate regulator seem to be relatively less attractive policies as they are found to be less likely to be introduced in countries facing increasing institutional risk and budget constraints. Their impact on fixed network deployment is found to be negative or non significant.

Mobile networks have developed rapidly in recent years in areas previously unserved Africa. Alongside the European Orange, Vodafone and Tigo (Millicom), there is South Africa's MTN and Zain and Moov from Middle East. Their strategy aims at reducing prices to increase market share, even though investment in the development of networks is slowing under the impact of the financial crisis. A factor key to the communications revolution in Africa lies in the reduction of roaming charges - which is to apply a local rate to a user even if abroad. Regional integration will increase as these strategies propagate to other operators and ultimately eliminate the price differences from one country to another.

We analyze demand for prepaid cellular voice and short message service (SMS) in South Africa by means of a demand-and-supply structural model based on a multinomial specification fitted to a cross-sectional data set on Vodacom customers collected in 2005. We find that consumers are very sensitive to changes in prices, with higher price elasticities than those typically found in developed countries. Consumers attach a higher value to communications during peak hours but since these are priced highly, they are as much as twice more elastic than off-peak communications. In relative terms, demand for communications during peak hours is more elastic for urban than for rural consumers, while the reverse can be said about demand for off-peak hours. The highest valuations are those placed by rural consumers on working hour communications. A policy implication of our analysis is that while in terms of access cellular deployment in South Africa has gone a long way into bridging the gap between the ``first'' and ``second'' economies, in terms of usage if market organizations or regulatory institutions were to encourage further investment in network availability in rural areas this could be rewarding both for the firm and its rural customers.

In this article the author seeks to explain the reasons backing the success of mobile technology in money transfers comparing Africa and Latin America.

La contribution des technologies d'information et de communication à la croissance fait l'objet de nombreux commentaires établis à partir d'analyses dont les difficultés méthodologiques doivent être relevées. Ainsi, sont mis en exergue le retard de tel ou tel pays dans l'adoption de ces technologies qui freinerait la croissance et l'inadaptation des politiques publiques pour en soutenir la diffusion. S'il est avéré que les technologies d'information et de communication participent activement à la croissance des économies développées, les mécanismes de cette contribution restent encore obscurs, en dehors de l'effet direct qu'assure la très forte productivité du secteur productif des technologies d'information et de communication lui-même sur le reste de l'économie, tant par l'amélioration de la performance des produits que par la baisse continue de leurs prix.

This paper examines some policies pursued in developing countries for the provision of telecommunications services in rural areas. These policies significantly differ from those typically implemented in developed countries in their fundamental objectives, the technological strategies deployed and the market and institutional environments they rest on. A review of some representative experiences suggests that thinking about public utility reforms in this part of the world is quite a challenging exercise. We point out some economic and institutional characteristics of these countries that we believe normative analysis of the reforms should explicitly take into account