1. The CIRCE Simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea
- Author
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Clotilde Dubois, Michel Déqué, Adriana Carillo, Daniela Jacob, Samuel Somot, Ali Harzallah, Gianmaria Sannino, Enrico Scoccimarro, Florence Sevault, Alain Braun, Paolo Ruti, Antonio Navarra, Sandro Calmanti, Alessio Bellucci, Wilhelm May, Vincenzo Artale, Alberto Elizalde, Alessandro Dell'Aquila, Mario Adani, Antonella Sanna, Paolo Oddo, Silvio Gualdi, Blandine L'Hévéder, Laurent Li, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici [Bologna] (CMCC), Ist Nazl Geofis & Vulcanol, Bologna, Italy, Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Italian Natl Agcy New Technol Energy & Sustainabl, Rome, Italy, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Natl Inst Marine Sci & Technol, Salammbo, Tunisia, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique (CNRM-GAME), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École polytechnique (X)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC), Sannino, G., Dell'Aquila, A., Ruti, P., Carillo, A., Calmanti, S., Artale, V., Gualdi S, Somot S, Li L, Artale V, Adani M, Bellucci A, Braun A, Calmanti S, Carillo A, Dell'Aquila A, Deque M, Dubois C, Elizalde A, Harzallah A, Jacob D, L'Heveder B, May W, Oddo P, Ruti P, Sanna A, Sannino G, Scoccimarro E, Sevault F, and Navarra A
- Subjects
Mediterranean climate ,Atmospheric Science ,Special Report on Emissions Scenarios ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Climate commitment ,Climate change ,010501 environmental sciences ,01 natural sciences ,Regional Model, CIRCE, Mediterranean Sea ,Mediterranean sea ,13. Climate action ,[SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology ,Climatology ,Environmental science ,media_common.cataloged_instance ,Climate model ,14. Life underwater ,Precipitation ,European union ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,media_common - Abstract
In this article, the authors describe an innovative multimodel system developed within the Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment (CIRCE) European Union (EU) Sixth Framework Programme (FP6) project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow assessment of the role of the basin and in particular of the air–sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°–2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to lose more water through its surface than in the past. Overall, these results are consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as the Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects (PRUDENCE), Ensemble-Based Predictions of Climate Changes and Their Impacts (ENSEMBLES), and phase 3 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3). The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations. Finally, the models produce a 2021–50 mean steric sea level rise that ranges between +7 and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.
- Published
- 2013
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