21 results on '"Rennels, Lisa"'
Search Results
2. Sea Level and Socioeconomic Uncertainty Drives High-End Coastal Adaptation Costs
- Author
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Wong, Tony E., Ledna, Catherine, Rennels, Lisa, Sheets, Hannah, Errickson, Frank C., Diaz, Delavane, and Anthoff, David
- Subjects
Physics - Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics ,Statistics - Applications - Abstract
Sea-level rise and associated flood hazards pose severe risks to the millions of people globally living in coastal zones. Models representing coastal adaptation and impacts are important tools to inform the design of strategies to manage these risks. Representing the often deep uncertainties influencing these risks poses nontrivial challenges. A common uncertainty characterization approach is to use a few benchmark cases to represent the range and relative probabilities of the set of possible outcomes. This has been done in coastal adaptation studies, for example, by using low, moderate, and high percentiles of an input of interest, like sea-level changes. A key consideration is how this simplified characterization of uncertainty influences the distributions of estimated coastal impacts. Here, we show that using only a few benchmark percentiles to represent uncertainty in future sea-level change can lead to overconfident projections and underestimate high-end risks as compared to using full ensembles for sea-level change and socioeconomic parametric uncertainties. When uncertainty in future sea level is characterized by low, moderate, and high percentiles of global mean sea-level rise, estimates of high-end (95th percentile) damages are underestimated by between 18% (SSP1-2.6) and 46% (SSP5-8.5). Additionally, using the 5th and 95th percentiles of sea-level scenarios underestimates the 5-95% width of the distribution of adaptation costs by a factor ranging from about two to four, depending on SSP-RCP pathway. The resulting underestimation of the uncertainty range in adaptation costs can bias adaptation and mitigation decision-making.
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
3. The social costs of hydrofluorocarbons and the benefits from their expedited phase-down
- Author
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Tan, Tammy, Rennels, Lisa, and Parthum, Bryan
- Published
- 2024
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
4. Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2
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Rennert, Kevin, Errickson, Frank, Prest, Brian C, Rennels, Lisa, Newell, Richard G, Pizer, William, Kingdon, Cora, Wingenroth, Jordan, Cooke, Roger, Parthum, Bryan, Smith, David, Cromar, Kevin, Diaz, Delavane, Moore, Frances C, Müller, Ulrich K, Plevin, Richard J, Raftery, Adrian E, Ševčíková, Hana, Sheets, Hannah, Stock, James H, Tan, Tammy, Watson, Mark, Wong, Tony E, and Anthoff, David
- Subjects
Behavioral and Social Science ,Basic Behavioral and Social Science ,Climate Action ,Carbon Dioxide ,Climate ,Greenhouse Gases ,Socioeconomic Factors ,Climate Models ,Uncertainty ,Delay Discounting ,Risk ,Policy Making ,Environmental Policy ,General Science & Technology - Abstract
The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO2 ($44-$413 per tCO2: 5%-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government's current value of $51 per tCO2. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.
- Published
- 2022
5. The Economics of Climate Change Under Uncertainty and Engineering the Software for its Research
- Author
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Rennels, Lisa Forsyth
- Subjects
Environmental economics ,Computer science ,Climate change - Abstract
Evaluation of the potential economic impacts of climate change are crucial for informed policy responses. Several decades of rigorous research devoted to this topic have advanced the field enormously, and still there remain areas of active debate and research seeking to address open questions and shortcomings of existing work. I seek to address critical limitations and lines of inquiry through three primary projects. Through these three projects I tackle aspects of two challenges. First, a lack of usable domain-specific computational tools can slow climate research, discourage collaboration, and pose barriers to transparency. Second, policymakers must design climate policy in the face of substantial, sometimes unresolvable uncertainty along several dimensions. A fourth, concurrent effort, the development of the Mimi computational platform for integrated assessment modeling, is a vital contribution to the computational infrastructure that enables my own research as well as that of the broader research and policymaking communities.Computational modeling and analysis are at the core of the research posed in both Chapters 2 and 3, and calls for new open-source, easy-to-use computational tools to promote research, transparency, and collaboration echo those across modern scientific and interdisciplinary domains. As a core developer of the Mimi platform , I produce high-quality open-source software aimed at supporting collaboration and making it possible for researchers, including myself, to investigate new research questions and more effectively support policy makers. A multitude of academic groups across several universities use the platform, and it also directly supports federal and state-level regulatory analysis. Mimi is the subject of the project described Chapter 1.In Chapter 1 we employ both observation and semi-structured interviews to learn about designing software in climate change economics domain and gather generalizable insights about the design of embedded domain specific languages. Programming tools are increasingly integral to research and analysis in myriad domains, including specialized areas with no formal relation to computer science. Embedded domain-specific languages (eDSLs) have the potential to serve these programmers while placing relatively light implementation burdens on language designers. However, barriers to eDSL use reduce their practical value and adoption. In this project, we aim to deepen our understanding of how programmers use eDSLs and identify user needs to inform future eDSL designs. We performed a contextual inquiry (9 participants) with domain experts using Mimi, an eDSL for climate change economics modeling. A thematic analysis identified five key themes, including: the interaction between the eDSL and the host language has significant and sometimes unexpected impacts on eDSL user experience, and users preferentially engage with domain-specific communities and code templates rather than host language resources. The needs uncovered in our study offer design considerations for future eDSLs and suggest directions for future DSL usability research.The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO2) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit-cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography, and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency, and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. In Chapter 2 we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2. Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO2 ($44-413/t-CO2: 5-95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2 percent, a value 3.6-times higher than the US government’s current value of $51/t-CO2. Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source GIVE model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared to estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.Evaluating the economic impacts of climate change is crucial to inform climate policy. One typical approach to assessing mitigation policy options uses integrated climate-economy models to analyze tradeoffs between the costs of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and the benefits of avoiding climate damages. However, the economic impacts of climate change are both expansive and deeply uncertain--adding a hurdle to designing tractable climate policy. Analysis using integrated climate-economy models thus often fails to fully represent the downside risk--what if the chosen model(s) are wrong? The deep uncertainty characterizing these models poses challenges for policymakers. In Chapter 3 we address this challenge using a robust decision-making framework to evaluate mitigation policy. We show that a shift from a decision framework that maximizes expected outcomes to one that is averse to regret supports precaution in the face of uncertainty and faster emissions cuts than currently implemented. Uncertainties about socioeconomic trajectories and the magnitude and functional form of climate damages create asymmetric consequences from delayed or weak mitigation policy.
- Published
- 2024
6. The Social Cost of Carbon : Advances in Long-Term Probabilistic Projections of Population, GDP, Emissions, and Discount Rates
- Author
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RENNERT, KEVIN, PREST, BRIAN C., PIZER, WILLIAM A., NEWELL, RICHARD G., ANTHOFF, DAVID, KINGDON, CORA, RENNELS, LISA, COOKE, ROGER, RAFTERY, ADRIAN E., ŠEVČÍKOVÁ, HANA, and ERRICKSON, FRANK
- Published
- 2021
7. Projecting future costs to U.S. electric utility customers from power interruptions.
- Author
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Larsen, Peter H, Boehlert, Brent, Eto, Joseph, Hamachi-LaCommare, Kristina, Martinich, Jeremy, and Rennels, Lisa
- Subjects
Electric system reliability ,Grid resilience ,O2 development planning and policy ,Outage cost ,Power outages ,Q4 energy ,Q5 environmental economics ,R00 general ,Severe weather ,Undergrounding ,Aging ,Energy ,Mechanical Engineering ,Resources Engineering and Extractive Metallurgy ,Interdisciplinary Engineering - Abstract
This analysis integrates regional models of power system reliability, output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models, and results from the Interruption Cost Estimate (ICE) Calculator to project long-run costs to electric utility customers from power interruptions under different future severe weather and electricity system scenarios. We discuss the challenges when attempting to model long-run costs to utility customers including the use of imperfect metrics to measure severe weather. Despite these challenges, initial findings show that discounted cumulative customer costs, through the middle of the century, could range from $1.5-$3.4 trillion ($2015) without aggressive undergrounding of the power system and increased utility operations and maintenance (O&M) spending and $1.5-$2.5 trillion with aggressive undergrounding and increased spending. By the end of the century, cumulative customer costs could range from $1.9-$5.6 trillion (without aggressive undergrounding and increased spending) and $2.0-$3.6 trillion (with aggressive undergrounding and increased spending). We find that, in some scenarios, aggressive undergrounding of distribution lines and increased O&M spending is not always cost-effective. We conclude by identifying important topics for follow-on research, which have the potential to improve the cost estimates of this model.
- Published
- 2018
8. Impacts of emissions uncertainty on Antarctic instability and sea-level rise
- Author
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Darnell, Chloe, primary, Rennels, Lisa, additional, Errickson, Frank, additional, Wong, Tony, additional, and Srikrishnan, Vivek, additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
9. Equity weighting increases the social cost of carbon.
- Author
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Prest, Brian C., Rennels, Lisa, Errickson, Frank, and Anthoff, David
- Subjects
- *
EXTERNALITIES , *GREENHOUSE gases , *PER capita , *REGULATORY impact analysis , *CLIMATE change in literature , *COST benefit analysis - Abstract
The article explores how the incorporation of distributional weighting into the social cost of carbon (SCC) calculation significantly increases its value, highlighting an eightfold rise due to this adjustment. Topics discussed include the impact of the new 2 percent discount rate, the ethical implications of income weighting, and the international implications of applying distributional weights.
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- 2024
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10. How Domain Experts Use an Embedded DSL
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Rennels, Lisa, primary and Chasins, Sarah E., additional
- Published
- 2023
- Full Text
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11. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation
- Author
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Melvin, April M., Larsen, Peter, Boehlert, Brent, Neumann, James E., Chinowsky, Paul, Espinet, Xavier, Martinich, Jeremy, Baumann, Matthew S., Rennels, Lisa, Bothner, Alexandra, Nicolsky, Dmitry J., and Marchenko, Sergey S.
- Published
- 2017
12. Estimating wildfire response costs in Alaska’s changing climate
- Author
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Melvin, April M., Murray, Jessica, Boehlert, Brent, Martinich, Jeremy A., Rennels, Lisa, and Rupp, T. Scott
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
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13. MimiBRICK.jl: A Julia package for the BRICK model for sea-level change in the Mimi integrated modeling framework
- Author
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Wong, Tony E., primary, Rennels, Lisa, additional, Errickson, Frank, additional, Srikrishnan, Vivek, additional, Bakker, Alexander, additional, Keller, Klaus, additional, and Anthoff, David, additional
- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
14. Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO2.
- Author
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Rennert, Kevin, Errickson, Frank, Prest, Brian C., Rennels, Lisa, Newell, Richard G., Pizer, William, Kingdon, Cora, Wingenroth, Jordan, Cooke, Roger, Parthum, Bryan, Smith, David, Cromar, Kevin, Diaz, Delavane, Moore, Frances C., Müller, Ulrich K., Plevin, Richard J., Raftery, Adrian E., Ševčíková, Hana, Sheets, Hannah, and Stock, James H.
- Abstract
The social cost of carbon dioxide (SC-CO
2 ) measures the monetized value of the damages to society caused by an incremental metric tonne of CO2 emissions and is a key metric informing climate policy. Used by governments and other decision-makers in benefit–cost analysis for over a decade, SC-CO2 estimates draw on climate science, economics, demography and other disciplines. However, a 2017 report by the US National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine1 (NASEM) highlighted that current SC-CO2 estimates no longer reflect the latest research. The report provided a series of recommendations for improving the scientific basis, transparency and uncertainty characterization of SC-CO2 estimates. Here we show that improved probabilistic socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions, and discounting methods that collectively reflect theoretically consistent valuation of risk, substantially increase estimates of the SC-CO2 . Our preferred mean SC-CO2 estimate is $185 per tonne of CO2 ($44–$413 per tCO2 : 5%–95% range, 2020 US dollars) at a near-term risk-free discount rate of 2%, a value 3.6 times higher than the US government’s current value of $51 per tCO2 . Our estimates incorporate updated scientific understanding throughout all components of SC-CO2 estimation in the new open-source Greenhouse Gas Impact Value Estimator (GIVE) model, in a manner fully responsive to the near-term NASEM recommendations. Our higher SC-CO2 values, compared with estimates currently used in policy evaluation, substantially increase the estimated benefits of greenhouse gas mitigation and thereby increase the expected net benefits of more stringent climate policies.Coupling advances in socioeconomic projections, climate models, damage functions and discounting methods yields an estimate of the social cost of carbon of US$185 per tonne of CO2 —triple the widely used value published by the US government. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2022
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
15. Working Toward a New Social Cost of Carbon.
- Author
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Rennert, Kevin, Prest, Brian C., Pizer, William A., Newell, Richard G., Anthoff, David, Kingdon, Cora, Rennels, Lisa, Cooke, Roger, Raftery, Adrian E., Sevcikova, Hana, Errickson, Frank, and Wingenroth, Jordan
- Abstract
The NASEM report points out that prior SCC estimates by the US government -- up to and including the current interim $51-per-ton SCC value -- use somewhat dated and often overly simplistic approaches. More generally, SCC-related research is an ongoing endeavor, and the SCC shouldbe updated at regular intervals as the scientific frontier advances on multiple fronts, as recommended by NASEM. This work is particularly relevant in light of the January 20, 2021, Executive Order 13990, which reestablished the Obama-era Interagency Working Group on the SCC and directed it to update the SCC in consideration of the NASEM report. [Extracted from the article]
- Published
- 2021
16. Projecting future costs to U.S. electric utility customers from power interruptions
- Author
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Larsen, Peter H., primary, Boehlert, Brent, additional, Eto, Joseph, additional, Hamachi-LaCommare, Kristina, additional, Martinich, Jeremy, additional, and Rennels, Lisa, additional
- Published
- 2018
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
17. Climate Change Impacts on Harmful Algal Blooms in U.S. Freshwaters: A Screening-Level Assessment
- Author
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Chapra, Steven C., primary, Boehlert, Brent, additional, Fant, Charles, additional, Bierman, Victor J., additional, Henderson, Jim, additional, Mills, David, additional, Mas, Diane M. L., additional, Rennels, Lisa, additional, Jantarasami, Lesley, additional, Martinich, Jeremy, additional, Strzepek, Kenneth M., additional, and Paerl, Hans W., additional
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
18. Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality Using Two Models: HAWQS and US Basins
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Fant, Charles, primary, Srinivasan, Raghavan, additional, Boehlert, Brent, additional, Rennels, Lisa, additional, Chapra, Steven, additional, Strzepek, Kenneth, additional, Corona, Joel, additional, Allen, Ashley, additional, and Martinich, Jeremy, additional
- Published
- 2017
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
19. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation
- Author
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science, Boehlert, Brent B., Melvin, April M., Larsen, Peter, Neumann, James E., Chinowsky, Paul, Espinet, Xavier, Martinich, Jeremy, Baumann, Matthew S., Rennels, Lisa, Bothner, Alexandra, Nicolsky, Dmitry J., Marchenko, Sergey S., Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Center for Global Change Science, Boehlert, Brent B., Melvin, April M., Larsen, Peter, Neumann, James E., Chinowsky, Paul, Espinet, Xavier, Martinich, Jeremy, Baumann, Matthew S., Rennels, Lisa, Bothner, Alexandra, Nicolsky, Dmitry J., and Marchenko, Sergey S.
- Abstract
Climate change in the circumpolar region is causing dramatic environmental change that is increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure. We quantified the economic impacts of climate change on Alaska public infrastructure under relatively high and low climate forcing scenarios [representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) and RCP4.5] using an infrastructure model modified to account for unique climate impacts at northern latitudes, including near-surface permafrost thaw. Additionally, we evaluated how proactive adaptation influenced economic impacts on select infrastructure types and developed first-order estimates of potential land losses associated with coastal erosion and lengthening of the coastal ice-free season for 12 communities. Cumulative estimated expenses from climate-related damage to infrastructure without adaptation measures (hereafter damages) from 2015 to 2099 totaled $5.5 billion (2015 dollars, 3% discount) for RCP8.5 and $4.2 billion for RCP4.5, suggesting that reducing greenhouse gas emissions could lessen damages by $1.3 billion this century. The distribution of damages varied across the state, with the largest damages projected for the interior and southcentral Alaska. The largest source of damages was road flooding caused by increased precipitation followed by damages to buildings associated with near-surface permafrost thaw. Smaller damages were observed for airports, railroads, and pipelines. Proactive adaptation reduced total projected cumulative expenditures to $2.9 billion for RCP8.5 and $2.3 billion for RCP4.5. For road flooding, adaptation provided an annual savings of 80–100% across four study eras. For nearly all infrastructure types and time periods evaluated, damages and adaptation costs were larger for RCP8.5 than RCP4.5. Estimated coastal erosion losses were also larger for RCP8.5., United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (Contract EP-D-14-031)
- Published
- 2017
20. Climate Change Impacts on US Water Quality Using Two Models: HAWQS and US Basins
- Author
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Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change, Boehlert, Brent B., Strzepek, Kenneth, Fant, Charles, Srinivasan, Raghavan, Rennels, Lisa, Chapra, Steven, Corona, Joel, Allen, Ashley, Martinich, Jeremy, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Joint Program on the Science & Policy of Global Change, Boehlert, Brent B., Strzepek, Kenneth, Fant, Charles, Srinivasan, Raghavan, Rennels, Lisa, Chapra, Steven, Corona, Joel, Allen, Ashley, and Martinich, Jeremy
- Abstract
Climate change and freshwater quality are well-linked. Changes in climate result in changes in streamflow and rising water temperatures, which impact biochemical reaction rates and increase stratification in lakes and reservoirs. Using two water quality modeling systems (the Hydrologic and Water Quality System; HAWQS and US Basins), five climate models, and two greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation policies, we assess future water quality in the continental U.S. to 2100 considering four water quality parameters: water temperature, dissolved oxygen, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus. Once these parameters are aggregated into a water quality index, we find that, while the water quality models differ under the baseline, there is more agreement between future projections. In addition, we find that the difference in national-scale economic benefits across climate models is generally larger than the difference between the two water quality models. Both water quality models find that water quality will more likely worsen in the East than in the West. Under the business-as-usual emissions scenario, we find that climate change is likely to cause economic impacts ranging from 1.2 to 2.3 (2005 billion USD/year) in 2050 and 2.7 to 4.8 in 2090 across all climate and water quality models., United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Climate Change Division (EP-BPA-12-H-0024), United States. Environmental Protection Agency. Office of Water (EP-G15H-01113)
- Published
- 2017
21. Climate change damages to Alaska public infrastructure and the economics of proactive adaptation
- Author
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Melvin, April M., primary, Larsen, Peter, additional, Boehlert, Brent, additional, Neumann, James E., additional, Chinowsky, Paul, additional, Espinet, Xavier, additional, Martinich, Jeremy, additional, Baumann, Matthew S., additional, Rennels, Lisa, additional, Bothner, Alexandra, additional, Nicolsky, Dmitry J., additional, and Marchenko, Sergey S., additional
- Published
- 2016
- Full Text
- View/download PDF
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