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BackgroundThe effective reproduction number,Rt, is a tool to track and understand epidemic dynamics. This investigation ofRtestimations was conducted to guide the national COVID-19 response in Qatar, from the onset of the epidemic until August 18, 2021.MethodsReal-time “empirical”was estimated using five methods, including the Robert Koch Institute, Cislaghi, Systrom-Bettencourt and Ribeiro, Wallinga and Teunis, and Cori et al. methods.Rwas also estimated using a transmission dynamics model. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were conducted. Agreements between differentRtestimates were assessed by calculating correlation coefficients.Resultscaptured the evolution of the epidemic through three waves, public health response landmarks, effects of major social events, transient fluctuations coinciding with significant clusters of infection, and introduction and expansion of the B.1.1.7 variant. The various estimation methods produced consistent and overall comparableestimates with generally large correlation coefficients. The Wallinga and Teunis method was the fastest at detecting changes in epidemic dynamics.estimates were consistent whether using time series of symptomatic PCR-confirmed cases, all PCR-confirmed cases, acute-care hospital admissions, or ICU-care hospital admissions, to proxy trends in true infection incidence.correlated strongly withand provided an average.ConclusionsRtestimations were robust and generated consistent results regardless of the data source or the method of estimation. Findings affirmed an influential role forRtestimations in guiding national responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, even in resource-limited settings.

Funding: This research is part of the Data and Connectivity National Core Study, led by Health Data Research UK in partnership with the Office for National Statistics and funded by UK Research and Innovation (grant ref MC_PC_20058). SVK acknowledges funding from a NRS Senior Clinical Fellowship (SCAF/15/02), the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_00022/2) and the Scottish Government Chief Scientist Office (SPHSU17). Background The dynamics of acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) transmission and severity of disease among children and young people (CYP) across different settings are of considerable clinical, public health and societal interest. Severe COVID-19 cases, requiring hospitalisations, and deaths have been reported in some CYP suggesting a need to extend vaccinations to these age groups. As part of the ongoing Early Pandemic Evaluation and Enhanced Surveillance of COVID-19 (EAVE II) study, we aim to investigate the uptake, effectiveness and safety of COVID-19 vaccines in children and young people (CYP) aged 0 to 17 years in Scotland. Specifically, we will estimate: (i) uptake of vaccines against COVID-19, (ii) vaccine effectiveness (VE) against the outcomes of symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, hospitalisation, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, and death; (iii) VE for first/second dose timing among different age groups and risk groups; and (iv) the safety of vaccines. Methods and analysis We will conduct an open prospective cohort study classifying exposure as time-varying. We will compare outcomes amongst first dose vaccinated and second dose vaccinated CYP to those not yet vaccinated. A Test Negative Design (TND) case control study will be nested within this national cohort to investigate VE against symptomatic infection. The primary outcomes will be (i) uptake of vaccines against COVID-19, (ii) time to COVID-19 infection, hospitalisation, ICU admissions or death, and (iii) adverse events related to vaccines. Vaccination status (unvaccinated, one dose and two doses) will be defined as a time-varying exposure. Data from multiple sources will be linked using a unique identifier. We will conduct descriptive analyses to explore trends in vaccine uptake, and association between different exposure variables and vaccine uptake will be determined using multivariable logistic regression models. VE will be assessed from time-dependent Cox models or Poisson regression models, adjusted for relevant confounders, including age, sex, socioeconomic status, and comorbidities. We will employ self-controlled study designs to determine the risk of adverse events following COVID-19 vaccination. Ethics and dissemination Ethics approval was obtained from the National Research Ethics Committee, South East Scotland 02. We will present findings of this study at international conferences, in peer-reviewed journals and to policy-makers. Publisher PDF

Background In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, two new temporary hospitals were constructed in record time in Wuhan, China, to help combat the fast-spreading virus in February 2020. Using the experience of one of the hospitals as a case study, we discuss the health and economic implications of this response strategy and its potential application in other countries. Methods This retrospective observational study analyzed health resource utilization and clinical outcomes data for 2011 inpatients diagnosed with COVID-19 and admitted to Leishenshan Hospital during its 67 days of operation from February 8th to April 14th, 2020. We used a top-down costing approach to estimate the total cost of treating patients at the Leishenshan Hospital, including capital cost for hospital construction, health personnel costs, and direct health care costs. We used a multivariate generalized linear model to examine risk factors associated with in-hospital deaths. Results During the 67 days of hospital operation, 19 medical teams comprising of 933 doctors and 2312 nurses were gradually transferred to Leishenshan Hospital from across China. Of the 2011 admissions, 4.5% used intensive care and 2.0% used ventilators. Overall median length of stay was 19 days, and 21 days for patients in the intensive care unit (ICU). The case fatality rate (CFR) was 2.3% overall, 41.8% in the ICU, and 0.4% in general ward (GW). CFRs were 55% and 50% among patients using non-invasive and invasive ventilators, respectively. The mean total cost and direct health care cost were CNY806 997 (US$114 793) and CNY16 087 (US$2288), respectively. Patients admitted to the ICU had much higher direct health care costs, on average, compared to those in the GW (CNY150 415 vs CNY9720, or US$21 396 vs US$1383). The mean direct health care cost per patient with severe or critical diseases was more than five times higher than those with mild or moderate diseases (CNY45 191 vs CNY8838, or US$6428 vs US$1257). Older age, having comorbidities, and critical disease were associated with higher risks of death from COVID-19. Lower health worker to patient ratio (

Background The COVID-19 pandemic poses serious threats to public health globally, and the emerging mutations in SARS-CoV-2 genomes has become one of the major challenges of disease control. In the second epidemic wave in Nigeria, the roles of co-circulating SARS-CoV-2 Alpha (ie, B.1.1.7) and Eta (ie, B.1.525) variants in contributing to the epidemiological outcomes were of public health concerns for investigation. Methods We developed a mathematical model to capture the transmission dynamics of different types of strains in Nigeria. By fitting to the national-wide COVID-19 surveillance data, the transmission advantages of SARS-CoV-2 variants were estimated by likelihood-based inference framework. Results The reproduction numbers were estimated to decrease steadily from 1.5 to 0.8 in the second epidemic wave. In December 2020, when both Alpha and Eta variants were at low prevalent levels, their transmission advantages (against the wild type) were estimated at 1.51 (95% credible intervals (CrI) = 1.48, 1.54), and 1.56 (95% CrI = 1.54, 1.59), respectively. In January 2021, when the original variants almost vanished, we estimated a weak but significant transmission advantage of Eta against Alpha variants with 1.14 (95% CrI = 1.11, 1.16). Conclusions Our findings suggested evidence of the transmission advantages for both Alpha and Eta variants, of which Eta appeared slightly more infectious than Alpha. We highlighted the critical importance of COVID-19 control measures in mitigating the outbreak size and relaxing the burdens to health care systems in Nigeria.

Background Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in Wuhan, China, which has now spread globally, the health systems continue to face challenges in the provision of health care, there is a risk of exposure for both the physicians and the patients. While there is significant progress in the adoption of technology in health care. This study sought to examine the adverse effects of the measures put in place by the government to curb the spread of COVID-19 and come up with an intervention to prevent worse outcomes for chronic conditions. Methods Booking registers for four specialty clinics in Machakos Level 5 Hospital were reviewed to identify patients who missed clinic appointments for follow-up. An automated data collection tool (ODK-collect) was used for data collection. COVID-19 Machakos App was developed to facilitate follow-up and referral of patients to the nearest facilities, capturing and posting of information in real-time to a central database. The mobile App also facilitated the tracking of patients and aided doctors to give feedback on whether the patients reported to the referred facilities. The doctors were also able to capture doctors’ notes on the patients' status while ensuring the confidentiality and privacy of the patients. An interactive dashboard was developed to generate analytics reports and summaries to monitor clinic attendance and trends in the provision of health care during the pandemic period. Results Register data showed 977 (81.5%) out of a total of 1199 patients had missed their scheduled appointments. Among the 977, 746 (76%) were residents of Machakos County and qualified for follow-up. Missed appointments varied by clinic: Cancer Clinic 12 (1.6) %), Diabetes Clinic 212 (28.4%), Hypertension 293 (39.3%), and Paediatrics Clinic 229 (30.7%). Contact was made and follow-up was attempted for 746 patients, of which 453 patients (60.7%) were successful. The follow-up distribution of the 453 patients varied by the clinic as follows: Cancer Clinic 10, Diabetes Clinic 146, Hypertension 185, and Paediatrics Clinic 112. During the follow-up process, 331 patients from diabetes and hypertension clinics were requested to choose a preferred or nearby facility to be referred to. 191 (58%) patients chose Machakos Level 5 Hospital as their preferred facility and 137 (41%) patients chose to be referred to level 3 or 4 hospitals within the County. Three deaths were reported from the medical (Hypertension) clinic. Through the developed App, a total, 82 (60%) patients out of the 137 were reviewed at the referral facilities jointly with a specialist at Machakos Level 5 Hospital. For the duration of the study, some patients reported worse conditions by the time of review after missing scheduled appointments. Conclusions This intervention demonstrated that mobile phone technology could be leveraged to provide specialty treatment services remotely to mitigate against worse patient outcomes. The study reveals that there is a dire need to integrate technological interventions in the provision of health care services to ensure continuity.

Background COVID-19 continues to impose significant morbidity and mortality in Japan even after implementing the vaccination program. It would remain elusive if restrictions for its mitigation were to be lifted or relaxed in the future. Methods A simulation study that explored possible vaccination coverage scenarios and changes in the intensity of nonpharmaceutical intervention restrictions was performed to assess the impact of COVID-19 based on death count. Results Assuming the basic reproduction number of circulating viruses was 5.0, vaccines could prevent 90% of infections and 95% of deaths, and the vaccination coverage rate was high (75%, 80%, and 90% in people aged 12-39 years, 40-59 years, ≥60 years, respectively), approximately 50 000 deaths would occur over 150 days in Japan if all restrictions were lifted. Most deaths would occur among older adults, even if their vaccination coverage was assumed to be especially high. A low vaccination coverage scenario (45%, 60%, and 80% in people aged 12-39 years, 40-59 years, ≥60 years, respectively) would require periodic implementation of strict measures even if the modified lifestyle observed in 2020 was sustained and vaccines were very effective. Some restrictions could be relaxed under high vaccination coverage. However, in the worst-case scenario where vaccines had decreased efficacy, as we have observed for the Delta variant, and people lived a relaxed lifestyle, our simulation suggests that even high vaccination coverage would occasionally require strict measures. Conclusions We should carefully explore a manageable degree of restrictions and their relaxation. We will have to keep bracing for occasional surges of COVID-19 infection, which could lead to strict measures, such as those under a state of emergency. Such strategies are essential even after a wide rollout of vaccination.

Background Vaccine acceptance and hesitancy among the general population and health care workers play an important role in successfully controlling the Coronavirus Disease (COVID)-19 pandemic. While there is evidence for vaccine hesitancy across the globe, wide variation in factors influencing vaccine acceptance has been reported, mainly from High-Income Countries (HIC). However, the evidence from Low- and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) remains unclear. The objective of this review was to describe the determinants of vaccine acceptance and strategies to address those in an LMIC context. Methods The World Health Organization’s (WHO) Measuring Behavioral and Social Drivers of Vaccination (BeSD) Increasing Vaccination Model was employed to identify factors that influenced vaccine acceptance. All evidence related to supply-side and demand-side determinants and social and health system processes were examined. A comprehensive search for published literature was conducted in three databases and grey literature in relevant websites of government, multinational agencies, and COVID-19 resource aggregators, followed by a narrative synthesis. Results Overall, the results showed that the vaccine acceptance rates differed across LMICs, with a wide variety of reasons cited for vaccine hesitancy. Vaccine acceptance was reportedly greater among males, those with higher education, elevated socio-economic status, the unmarried, those employed as health care workers. Evidence suggested that exposure to misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines and public concerns over the safety of vaccines may contribute to lower acceptance rates. Strategies to increase vaccine acceptance rates included direct engagement with communities through influencers, including community leaders and health experts; clear and transparent communication about COVID-19 vaccines, financial and non-financial incentives; and strong endorsement from health care workers. Trust in government was identified as a significant enabler of vaccine acceptance. Conclusions There is a need for measures to address public acceptability, trust and concern over the safety and benefit of approved vaccines. Local context is essential to consider while developing programs to promote vaccine uptake. The governments worldwide also need to strategize to develop plans to address the anxiety and vaccine related concerns of community regarding vaccine hesitancy. There is a need for further research to evaluate strategies to address vaccine hesitancy in LMIC.

Background: This study sought to determine the presence of SARS-CoV-2 virus on surfaces that trainees and faculty of an academic eye clinic came into contact with during daily life at the time of the COVID-19 pandemic in New York City. Methods: This cross-sectional analysis involved collection of at least two samples by teams on four different days (November 9, 2020 - December 18, 2020) using sterile swabs (Puritan HydraFlock, Garden Grove, CA). Collection sites were grouped into four zones depending on proximity and amount of time personnel spent there. Samples were transported to the laboratory in transport medium and RNA was extracted using the QIAamp DSP Viral RNA Mini Kit (Qiagen, Germantown, MD). Presence of viral RNA was investigated using the Luna Universal Probe One-step RT-qPCR kit (New England Biolabs, Ipwsich, MA). Results: 834 samples were submitted. Two were positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA. The first was a sample from a patient bathroom sink handle in the main emergency department. The second was a nasal swab sample from a staff member who had been assigned to collect samples. Prior to this positive result, this asymptomatic staff member had tested positive for COVID-19, had quarantined for two weeks, and had received a negative test. Conclusion: Though COVID-19 is currently widespread in the United States, this study shows that health care personnel working in New York City at the Columbia University Irving Medical Center have a low chance of encountering viral RNA on surfaces they are in close contact with during daily life.

Background: Evidence has revealed that nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were effective in attenuating the spread of COVID-19. However, policymakers have encountered difficulty in identifying the most effective policies under different circumstances. This study investigated the relative effectiveness of different NPIs and vaccination in prolonging COVID-19 case doubling time (DT). Methods: The study sample consisted of observations from 137 countries during 1 January 2020 to 13 June 2021. DT was calculated on a daily basis per country. Data were retrieved from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker, World Development Indicators, and Worldwide Governance Indicators. To capture policy intervention dynamics, we combined a random-effect growth-curve model with nonstandard interrupted time series analysis. We also evaluated the association of policy measures with DT for different outbreak stages and levels of government effectiveness. Results: Vaccine rollouts, workplace closures, and school closures were relatively effective. For each day that these measures were implemented, the DT increased by 1.96% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.63 to 3.29; P = 0.004), 1.41% (95% CI = 0.88 to 1.95%; P < 0.001) and 1.38% (95% CI = 0.95 to 1.81%; P < 0.001), respectively. Workplace and school closures were positively associated with DT at all stages; however, the associations weakened in later stages, where vaccine rollouts appeared to be most effective in prolonging DT (95% CI = 1.51% to 3.04%; P < 0.05). For countries with a high level of government effectiveness, most of the containment measures evaluated were effective; vaccine rollouts had the greatest effect size. For countries with medium or low levels of government effectiveness, only the closure of workplaces was consistently associated with prolonged DT. Conclusions: The effectiveness of vaccine rollouts outweighed that of NPIs, especially in the later outbreak stages. However, vaccination was not associated with prolonged case DT in countries with lower levels of government effectiveness, probably due to low vaccine coverage. Among the NPIs examined, workplace closures were highly effective across all outbreak stages and levels of government effectiveness. Our findings suggest that mass vaccination is critical to reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, especially in countries where NPIs are less effective.

Background: Around the globe, various self-quarantine, social distancing, and school-closure policies were implemented during the coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) outbreak to reduce disease transmission. Many economies/territories were compelled to consider digital learning modalities. In particular, increased digital learning engagement with digital devices and mounting psychosocial stress due to social isolation are likely to pose adverse risks for youth visual health globally. This study examines the association between increased digital device use, psychosocial stress, and myopia symptoms among Chinese youth during the COVID-19 pandemic. Methods: This is a retrospective observational population study consisting of 3918 participants enrolled in primary, secondary, and university in China. Participants are recruited through an online survey, which included self-reported information on daily digital device use, psychosocial stress level, condition of visual acuity, and demographic information. We utilize statistical tools including χ2 test, paired sample t test, and multiple multivariate logistic regression. Results: Each hour increase in digital device use is associated with 1.25 odds ratio OR (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.21-1.30; P < 0.001) increased risk of developing myopic symptoms, each additional hour of digital device use weighted by near-view and blue-light exposure is associated with OR = 1.04 OR (95% CI = 1.03-1.05; P < 0.001) and OR = 2.25 (95% CI = 1.94-2.60; P < 0.001) increased risk respectively. Subjects reporting under stressful conditions are between OR = 1.98 (95% CI = 1.67-2.36; P < 0.001) and OR = 2.03 (95% CI = 1.71-2.42; P < 0.001) more likely to develop myopic symptoms, relative to those citing less stress. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic led to favorable conditions for myopigenic behavioral changes characterized by extended sedentary engagement with digital devices, which are significantly associated with higher risks of myopia incidence. Relatedly, psychosocial stress accompanying prolonged social isolation during the pandemic is a less noticeable, albeit significant risk factor for myopia development.

Background The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic spread across Europe from February 2020. While robust SARS-CoV-2 serological assays were quickly developed, only limited information on applied serological testing is available. We describe the extent and nature of SARS-CoV-2 serological testing used in Europe and assess the links between epidemiology, mitigation strategies applied and seroprevalence. Methods An online questionnaire on SARS-CoV-2 serology was sent to the European Society of Clinical Virology and European Non-Polio Enterovirus Network members in September 2020. Data were analysed by comparing mitigation approaches, serological methods and seroprevalance studies performed. Results About 100 000 laboratory confirmed cases identified between March and June 2020 were reported by 36 participating laboratories from 20 countries. All responders experienced mitigation strategies including lockdowns and other closures. All except one participant had introduced serological testing; most had validated their assays (n = 29), but some had had difficulties in obtaining reference material. Most used commercial assays (n = 35), measuring IgG response against the spike antigen. Serology was used primarily for diagnostic purposes (n = 22) but also for convalescent plasma (n = 13) and research studies (n = 30). Seroprevalence studies targeted mainly health care workers (n = 20; seroprevalance 5% to 22%) and general population (n = 16; seroprevalance 0.88% to 5.6%). Basic demographic and clinical information were collected by most laboratories (n = 28), whereas data on long-term outcomes were rarely collected. Conclusions This is first study gathering systematic information on serological testing approaches implemented during the first pandemic wave in Europe.

Background Scientists have demonstrated the efficacy of vaccines against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 in randomized controlled trials. However, the extent to which reductions in COVID-19 case fatality ratio (CFR) are attributable to mass vaccination in the real world remains unclear. This study evaluated the association of COVID-19 vaccine coverage with CFR on a global scale. Methods The sample was a longitudinal data set of 90 countries over 25 weeks, from the first week of November 2020 to the third week of April 2021. CFR was measured in deaths per 100 COVID-19 confirmed cases; vaccine coverage was defined as the number of people who received at least one vaccine dose per 10 people in the total population. Data were retrieved from open-access databases, including Our World in Data and the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker. A country-level random effects model was used; a comprehensive set of variables for country characteristics and nonpharmaceutical interventions were included. Results A 10% increase in vaccine coverage was associated with a 7.6% reduction in the CFR (95% confidence interval (CI = -12.6 to -2.7%, P = 0.002). This association was stronger in countries with more effective governments (-8.3%; 95% CI = -13.6 to -3.1%, P = 0.002) and higher transport infrastructure quality (-8.1%; 95% CI = -13.3 to -2.9%, P = 0.002). Moreover, the vaccine coverage was associated with a reduced CFR in a dose-dependent manner. When vaccine coverage achieved 0.8 to 1.6, 1.6 to 3.2 and ≥3.2 per 10 people, the CFR reduced by 12.7% (95 CI = -21.8 to -3.6%, P = 0.006), 21.2% (95 CI = -33.9 to -8.5%, P = 0.001) and 31.3% (95 CI = -51.5 to -11.0%, P = 0.002), respectively as compared with no vaccination. Conclusions Our results provide supporting evidence that vaccination is critical to preventing deaths among infected people. Vaccination programmes have yielded significant health benefits in certain countries. However, globally, a large gap remains between observed and achievable fatality reductions. Continuous improvement in vaccine coverage will be critical to transforming efficacious vaccines into desired health outcomes.

Background The antiviral therapy has been considered as an ordinary intervention for COVID-19 patients. However, the effectiveness of antiviral therapy is uncertain. This study was designed to determine the association between the antiviral therapy and in-hospital mortality among severe COVID-19 patients. Methods This study enrolled severe COVID-19 patients admitted to four designated hospitals in Wuhan, China. The use of antiviral treatments, demographics, laboratory variables, co-morbidities, complications, and other treatments were compared between survival and fatal cases. The association between antiviral agents and in-hospital mortality were analyzed. Results In total, 109 severe COVID-19 patients (mean age 65.43) were enrolled for analysis, among which, 61 (56.0%) patients were discharged alive, and 48 (44.0%) died during hospitalization. We found no association between lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r) treatment and the in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR) = 0.195, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.023-1.679). Besides, ribavirin (OR = 0.738, 95% CI = 0.344-1.582), oseltamivir (OR = 0.765, 95% CI = 0.349-1.636), and interferon-alpha (IFN-α) (OR = 0.371, 95% CI = 0.112-1.236) were not associated with the in-hospital mortality. However, arbidol monotherapy (OR = 5.027, 95% CI = 1.795-14.074) or the combination of arbidol and oseltamivir (OR = 5.900, 95% CI = 1.190-29.247) was associated with an increased in-hospital mortality. In addition, the multiple logistic regression identified a significant association between the use of arbidol and the in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR = 4.195, 95% CI = 1.221-14.408). Conclusions Our findings indicated that LPV/r, IFN-α, ribavirin, or oseltamivir have no beneficial effects on the prognosis of severe COVID-19 patients, whereas the use of arbidol is associated with increased in-hospital mortality.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in both direct and indirect impacts on patients and population health. To better understand the impact of the measures put in place by the Kenyan government on health care provision, this project sought to document and quantify the impact of the restriction measures on patients' attendance in Machakos County. Methods Hospital attendance at 10 public hospitals were obtained including Machakos Level 5 Hospital (the county referral facility) and one health facility from each of the 9 Sub-counties of Machakos County. Data on outpatient and inpatient attendance from November 2019 to May 2020 were obtained and compared with a similar calendar period from the previous year. Key informant interviews (KIIs), focused group discussions (FGDs) and in-depth interviews were conducted with the hospital management personnel (n = 46), as well as with the patients (n = 453) who missed scheduled clinic appointments at Machakos Level 5 Hospital to understand the reasons behind the drop in attendance numbers. Results Overall, there was a decline in the number of patient attendances compared to the prior calendar period. Outpatient attendance reduced by 24.7% in April 2020 (n = 39 704) compared with April 2019 (n = 52 731). Inpatient attendance reduced by 13.7% in April 2020 (n = 3298) compared with April 2019 (n = 2845). Declines in patient attendance were observed in all hospitals that had inpatient services. A great decline in attendance was noted among larger hospitals that run specialty clinics, which were suspended mid-March 2020 when the first case of COVID-19 was announced. Some increase in attendance was noted in May when most clinics resumed operations. Most hospital management staff highlighted the closure of clinics as the main reason for reduced attendance while patients added that they also feared contracting COVID-19 at the hospital and the stigma they would face should they be quarantined. Conclusions The findings from this study provide evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic outbreak and measures put in place by the government to curb its spread disrupted the provision of health services in Machakos County. Efforts to minimize adverse impacts of indirect impacts on access to health care and preventative services to counter increased morbidity and mortality require attention throughout the pandemic.

Background: There is uncertainty with respect to SARS-CoV-2 transmission in children (0-19 years) with controversy on effectiveness of school-closures in controlling the pandemic. It is of equal importance to evaluate the risk of transmission in children who are often asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic carriers that may incidentally transmit SARS-CoV-2 in different settings. We conducted this review to assess transmission and risks for SARS-CoV-2 in children (by age-groups or grades) in community and educational-settings compared to adults. Methods: Data for the review were retrieved from PubMed, EMBASE, Cochrane Library, WHO COVID-19 Database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) Database, WanFang Database, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Google Scholar, and preprints from medRixv and bioRixv) covering a timeline from December 1, 2019 to April 1, 2021. Population-screening, contact-tracing and cohort studies reporting prevalence and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in children were included. Data were extracted according to PRISMA guidelines. Meta-analyses were performed using Review Manager 5.3. Results: Ninety studies were included. Compared to adults, children showed comparable national (risk ratio (RR) = 0.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.71-1.060 and subnational (RR = 0.81, 95% CI = 0.66-1.01) prevalence in population-screening studies, and lower odds of infection in community/household contact-tracing studies (odds ratio (OR) = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.46-0.84). On disaggregation, adolescents observed comparable risk (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 0.74-2.04) with adults. In educational-settings, children attending daycare/preschools (OR = 0.53, 95% CI = 0.38-0.72) were observed to be at lower-risk when compared to adults, with odds of infection among primary (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.55-1.31) and high-schoolers (OR = 1.30, 95% CI = 0.71-2.38) comparable to adults. Overall, children and adolescents had lower odds of infection in educational-settings compared to community and household clusters. Conclusions: Children (

Additional material: Online Supplementary Document available at http://jogh.org/documents/2021/jogh-11-05011-s001.pdf . Copyright © 2021 The Author(s). Background: Variation in the approaches taken to contain the SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic at country level has been shaped by economic and political considerations, technical capacity, and assumptions about public behaviours. To address the limited application of learning from previous pandemics, this study aimed to analyse perceived facilitators and inhibitors during the pandemic and to inform the development of an assessment tool for pandemic response planning. Methods A cross-sectional electronic survey of health and non-health care professionals (5 May - 5 June 2020) in six languages, with respondents recruited via email, social media and website posting. Participants were asked to score inhibitors (−10 to 0) or facilitators (0 to +10) impacting country response to COVID-19 from the following domains - Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Ecological, Legislative, and wider Industry (the PESTELI framework). Participants were then asked to explain their responses using free text. Descriptive and thematic analysis was followed by triangulation with the literature and expert validation to develop the assessment tool, which was then compared with four existing pandemic planning frameworks. Results 928 respondents from 66 countries (57% health care professionals) participated. Political and economic influences were consistently perceived as powerful negative forces and technology as a facilitator across high- and low-income countries. The 103-item tool developed for guiding rapid situational assessment for pandemic planning is comprehensive when compared to existing tools and highlights the interconnectedness of the 7 domains. Conclusions The tool developed and proposed addresses the problems associated with decision making in disciplinary silos and offers a means to refine future use of epidemic modelling. This study did not receive any external funding.

Background We determined the clinical presentation, risk factors, and pregnancy and perinatal outcomes in pregnant women with confirmed COVID-19 and identified if these are different based on COVID-19 severity. Methods We included all observational studies on pregnant women with confirmed COVID-19 reporting clinical presentation, risk factors, and pregnancy and perinatal outcomes. We included all studies published between Dec/2019-Feb/2021 in Medline, Embase, the WHO COVID-19 databases, and clinicaltrials.gov. The methodological quality of cohort and case-series was assessed using NHLBI criteria. Results 31 016 pregnant women from 62 studies were included. Women were an average of 30.9 years of age, most (77.7%) were in the third trimester, and 16.4% developed severe COVID-19. Nearly half were asymptomatic, while the most commonly reported symptoms were cough, fever, fatigue, and anosmia/ageusia. About 7% were admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU), 8% required mechanical ventilation, and 2% of the women died. Almost 80% of women delivered; 48.4% had cesarean births. Among newborns, 23.4% were preterm (35 years. The risk of severe COVID-19 was significantly higher among women who were obese, had smoked, diabetic, and had pre-eclampsia. The risk of preterm birth was almost 2.4 folds among women with severe COVID-19. Conclusions Our review suggests a heightened risk of COVID-19 severity and adverse pregnancy and perinatal outcomes among women with certain demographic and health profiles. These findings can inform the formation of current guidelines; however, these should be constantly updated as the global COVID-19 scenario unfolds. Registration PROSPERO: CRD42020182048.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has led to system-wide disruption of health services globally. We assessed the effect of the pandemic on the disruption of institutional delivery care in Nepal. Methods We conducted a prospective cohort study among 52 356 women in nine hospitals to assess the disruption of institutional delivery care during the pandemic (comparing March to August in 2019 with the same months in 2020). We also conducted a nested follow up cohort study with 2022 women during the pandemic to assess their provision and experience of respectful care. We used linear regression models to assess the association between provision and experience of care with volume of hospital births and women's residence in a COVID-19 hotspot area. Results The mean institutional births during the pandemic across the nine hospitals was 24 563, an average decrease of 11.6% (P < 0.0001) in comparison to the same time-period in 2019. The institutional birth in high-medium volume hospitals declined on average by 20.8% (P < 0.0001) during the pandemic, whereas in low-volume hospital institutional birth increased on average by 7.9% (P = 0.001). Maternity services halted for a mean of 4.3 days during the pandemic and there was a redeployment staff to COVID-19 dedicated care. Respectful provision of care was better in hospitals with low-volume birth (beta = 0.446, P < 0.0001) in comparison to high-medium-volume hospitals. There was a positive association between women's residence in a COVID-19 hotspot area and respectful experience of care (beta = 0.076, P = 0.001). Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic has had differential effects on maternity services with changes varying by the volume of births per hospital with smaller volume facilities doing better. More research is needed to investigate the effects of the pandemic on where women give birth and their provision and experience of respectful maternity care to inform a "building-back-better" approach in post-pandemic period.

Background Infectious outbreaks, most recently coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), have required pervasive public health strategies, termed lockdown measures, including quarantine, social distancing, and closure of workplaces and educational establishments. Although evidence analysing immediate effects is expanding, repercussions following lockdown measures remain poorly understood. This systematic review aims to analyse the biopsychosocial consequences after lockdown measures end according to short, medium, and long-term impacts. Methods PubMed, Ovid MEDLINE, Embase, PsycInfo, Web of Science, and Scopus databases were searched from inception to January 12, 2021. Reference lists were manually reviewed. Eligible studies analysed biopsychosocial functioning after lockdown measures secondary to recent infectious outbreaks ended. Lockdown measures were defined as quarantine, isolation, workplace or educational closures, social or physical distancing, and national or local closure of public institutions deemed non-essential. Studies exclusively researching outcomes during lockdown measures, examined infectious participants, or analysed lockdown measures not pertaining to an infectious outbreak were excluded. Two independent reviewers extracted data and assessed bias with a third resolving discrepancies. Data was extracted from published reports with further information requested from authors where necessary. The mixed methods appraisal tool assessed study quality, languages were restricted to English, German, Italian, and French and narrative synthesis was applied. Results Of 5149 identified studies, 40 were eligible for inclusion. Psychological distress, economic repercussions, social, biological, and behavioural ramifications were observed. Short to medium-term effects comprised reactions relating to early trauma processing whereas medium to long-term repercussions manifested in maladaptive behaviours and mental health deterioration. Increased alcohol intake, stigmatisation, and economic effects were also identified consequences. High-risk groups included health care workers, children, elderly, inpatients, those with pre-existing psychiatric diagnoses, and socially isolated individuals. Conclusions Supporting vulnerable groups and offering education, workplace modifications, financial, and social assistance may mitigate negative repercussions. Establishing a rapid and comprehensive evidence base appraising the efficacy of such interventions and identifying areas for development is essential. This review was limited by study heterogeneity and lack of randomisation in available literature. Given the unprecedented nature and progression of COVID-19, the relevance of previous outcomes remains uncertain. Protocol registration PROSPERO registration CRD42020181134

Background: Nurses represent the major proportion of frontline health care professionals delivering 24/7 services to patients with an increased vulnerability towards COVID-19 infection. Mental health issues among nurses during the COVID-19 pandemic are poorly reported across the globe. Henceforth, a systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to explore the prevalence and determinants of mental health outcomes (anxiety, stress, depression, PTSD, insomnia) among nurses across the globe due to the COVID-19. Methods: A PRISMA compliant systematic review (PROSPERO-CRD 42020204120) was carried out to identify articles from multiple databases reporting the prevalence of mental health outcomes among nurses. Proportion random effect analysis, I2 statistic, quality assessment, and sensitivity analysis were carried out. Results: Pooled data on mental health outcomes were generated from 25 cross-sectional studies: 32% anxiety (95% confidence interval (CI) = 21%-44%, n (number of studies) = 21, N (sample size) = 13 641), 40.6% stress (95% CI = 25.4%-56.8%, n = 10, N = 4204), 32% depression (95% CI = 21%-44%, n = 17, N = 12 294), 18.6% PTSD (95% CI = 4.8%-38%, n = 3, N = 638), 38.3% insomnia (95% CI = 5.8%-78.6%, n = 2, N = 261) and significant risk factors for mental ailments includes; caring for COVID-19 patients, being a female, low self-efficacy, resilience, social support and having physical symptoms (sore-throat, breathlessness, cough, lethargy, myalgia, fever). Conclusion: The study results highlighted a higher proportion of poor mental health outcomes namely, anxiety, stress, depression, PTSD and insomnia among nurses from different parts of the world. Poor mental health outcomes among nurses warrants the need to implement proactive psychological interventions to deter the collapse of health care systems in responding to the pandemic and in particular all possible efforts should be undertaken to mitigate the risk factors. Health care organizations should provide support to nurses with sufficient flexibility. The disaster preparedness plan envisaged by nations should have provisions to address the mental health of nurses. Greater investment in addressing the global shortage of nurses should be given priority in national health policies. Attractive salary packages should be offered to nurses to prevent their emigration from low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Registration: PROSPERO (CRD42020204120).

Background: In December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan city and rapidly spread throughout China. So far, it has caused ~ 4000 deaths in this country. We aimed to systematically characterize clinical features and determine risk factors of sudden death for COVID-19 patients. Methods: Deceased patients with COVID-19 in Tongji hospital from January 22 to March 23, 2020 were extracted. Patients who died within 24 hours after admission were identified as sudden deaths, and the others formed non-sudden deaths. The differences in clinical characteristics between the two groups were estimated. Risk factors associated with sudden deaths were explored by logistic regression. Results: 281 deceased patients were enrolled in this study. Sudden death occurred in 28 (10.0%) patients, including 4 (14.3%) admitted to the intensive care unit. Fatigue was more common in sudden deaths (11, 47.8%) than in non-sudden deaths (40, 17.2%). Both the count and percentage of eosinophils were lower in sudden deaths than that in non-sudden deaths (P = 0.006 and P = 0.004). Compared with non-sudden deaths, sudden deaths had higher plasma levels of procalcitonin, C-reactive protein, D-dimer, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, gamma-glutamyl transferase, lactate dehydrogenase, alkaline phosphatase and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide. There were not significant differences in gender, age, chest CT image features and comorbidities observed. Conclusions: The differences between the two groups suggested more severe systemic inflammation, multi-organ dysfunction, especially impaired liver and heart function in COVID-19 patients who died suddenly after admission. More researches are needed to verify these points.

Background: Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) and influenza are prevalent seasonal community viruses. Although not completely understood, SARS-CoV-2 may have the same means of transmission. Preventive social measures aimed at preventing SARS-CoV-2 spread could impact transmission of other respiratory viruses as well. The aim of this study is to report the detection of RSV and influenza during the period of social distancing due to COVID-19 pandemic in a heavily affected community. Methods: Prospective study with pediatric and adult populations seeking care for COVID-19-like symptoms during the fall and winter of 2020 at two hospitals in Southern Brazil. RT-PCR tests for SARS-CoV-2, influenza A (Flu A), influenza B (Flu B) and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) was performed for all participants. Results: 1435 suspected COVID-19 participants (1137 adults, and 298 children). were included between May and August. Median age was 37.7 years (IQR = 29.6-47.7), and 4.92 years (IQR = 1.96-9.53), for the adult and child cohorts, respectively. SARS-CoV-2 was positive in 469 (32.7%) while influenza and RSV were not detected at all. Conclusions: Measures to reduce SARS-CoV-2 transmission likely exerted a huge impact in the spread of alternate respiratory pathogens. These findings contribute to the knowledge about the dynamics of virus spread. Further, it may be considered for guiding therapeutic choices for these other viruses.

Background The focus of the study is to assess the advantages and shortcomings of China's public health system in the process of the COVID-19 prevention and to discuss the future reform of China's public health system. Methods By searching literature and reports related to the COVID-19 prevention of China, we compared the prevention effectiveness with the prevention policies in the process of the COVID-19 prevention. Results China's public health system can effectively combine national power to maximize the effectiveness of pandemic prevention. It improved the pandemic prevention ability of communities continuously and promoted the fairness of prevention. Traditional Chinese Medicine has also been used in pandemic prevention, which reduces the drug resistance of the virus. At the same time, the combination of the disease diagnosis and the Internet has reduced the spread speed of the pandemic. China's public health system also has some problems in response to the COVID-19, such as the shortage of medical resources, insufficient alerts, the low efficiency of reporting to superior government and the shortage of reward and punishment system for pandemic prevention. Conclusions China's practice and efforts of the COVID-19 prevention can provide experience for other countries to improve their public health systems and accelerate the end of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background On 12 June 2020, Brazil reached the second position worldwide in the number of COVID-19 cases. Authorities increased the number of tests performed, including the identification of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 (IgG, IgA, and IgM). There was an overflooding of the market with several tests, and the presence of possible false-positive results became a challenge. The purpose of this study was to describe the seroprevalence and immunoglobulin blood levels in a group of asymptomatic individuals using the reference levels provided by the manufacturer. Methods Levels of IgG and IgA antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 were determined in blood serum by the same ELISA (enzyme-linked immunoassay) test. Patients must be free of symptoms. Results From 20 to 22 May 2020, 938 individuals were tested. There were 441 (47%) men, age 53 years (interquartile range (IQR) = 39-63.2). The sample included 335 (35.7%) subjects aged ≥60 years old. Subjects with a positive test were 54 (5.8%) for IgG and 96 (10.2%) for IgA and 42 (4.5%) for both IgG and IgA. The prevalence of IgG and IgA positive test was not different in men and women and not different in individuals under 60 and over 60 years of age. Conversely, analysing only individuals with positive tests, the levels of IgG in positive subjects were significantly higher than those with an IgA positive test, 3.00 (IQR = 1.68-5.65), and 1.95 (IQR = 1.40-3.38), respectively; P = 0.017. Additionally, individuals with isolated IgA positive tests had significantly lower levels of IgA than those with both IgA and IgG positive tests: 1.95 (IQR = 1.60-2.40) and 3.15 (IQR = 2.20-3.90), respectively, P = 0.005. These latter data suggest that IgA shows a deviation of the distribution to the left in comparison to IgG distribution data. Indeed, many subjects reported as IgA positive had immunoglobulin levels slightly elevated. Conclusions In conclusion, we strongly suggest caution in the interpretation of IgA test results. This recommendation is more important for those with positive IgA just above the reference level.

Background: Mathematical modeling constitutes an important tool for planning robust responses to epidemics. This study was conducted to guide the Qatari national response to the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) epidemic. The study investigated the epidemic's time-course, forecasted health care needs, predicted the impact of social and physical distancing restrictions, and rationalized and justified easing of restrictions. Methods: An age-structured deterministic model was constructed to describe SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics and disease progression throughout the population. Results: The enforced social and physical distancing interventions flattened the epidemic curve, reducing the peaks for incidence, prevalence, acute-care hospitalization, and intensive care unit (ICU) hospitalizations by 87%, 86%, 76%, and 78%, respectively. The daily number of new infections was predicted to peak at 12 750 on May 23, and active-infection prevalence was predicted to peak at 3.2% on May 25. Daily acute-care and ICU-care hospital admissions and occupancy were forecast accurately and precisely. By October 15, 2020, the basic reproduction number R0 had varied between 1.07-2.78, and 50.8% of the population were estimated to have been infected (1.43 million infections). The proportion of actual infections diagnosed was estimated at 11.6%. Applying the concept of Rt tuning, gradual easing of restrictions was rationalized and justified to start on June 15, 2020, when Rt declined to 0.7, to buffer the increased interpersonal contact with easing of restrictions and to minimize the risk of a second wave. No second wave has materialized as of October 15, 2020, five months after the epidemic peak. Conclusions: Use of modeling and forecasting to guide the national response proved to be a successful strategy, reducing the toll of the epidemic to a manageable level for the health care system.

Copyright (c) 2021 The Authors. Background Strategic planning is critical for successful pandemic management. This study aimed to identify and review the scope and analytic depth of situation analyses conducted to understand their utility, and capture the documented macro-level factors impacting pandemic management. Methods To synthesise this disparate body of literature, we adopted a two-step search and review process. A systematic search of the literature was conducted to identify all studies since 2000, that have 1) employed a situation analysis; and 2) examined contextual factors influencing pandemic management. The included studies are analysed using a seven-domain systems approach from the discipline of strategic management. Results Nineteen studies were included in the final review ranging from single country (6) to regional, multi-country studies (13). Fourteen studies had a single disease focus, with 5 studies evaluating responses to one or more of COVID-19, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS), Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS), Influenza A (H1N1), Ebola virus disease, and Zika virus disease pandemics. Six studies examined a single domain from political, economic, sociological, technological, ecological or wider industry (PESTELI), 5 studies examined two to four domains, and 8 studies examined five or more domains. Methods employed were predominantly literature reviews. The recommendations focus predominantly on addressing inhibitors in the sociological and technological domains with few recommendations articulated in the political domain. Overall, the legislative domain is least represented. Conclusions Ex-post analysis using the seven-domain strategic management framework provides further opportunities for a planned systematic response to pandemics which remains critical as the current COVID-19 pandemic evolves. This study did not receive any external funding.

Aim: To compare different pooling methods in an attempt to improve the COVID-19 PCR diagnostic capacities. Method: We developed a novel information-dependent pooling protocol (indept), based on transmission of less informative sequential pools on to the next pooling cycle to maximize savings. We then compared it to the halving, generalized halving, splitting and hypercube protocols in a simulation study, across variety of scenarios. Results: All five methods yielded various amount of test savings, which mostly depended on the virus prevalence in the population. In situations of low prevalence (up to 5%), indept had the best performance, requiring on average 20% of tests needed for singular testing across scenarios that were analyzed. Nevertheless, this comes at the expense of speed, with the worst-case scenario of indept protocol requiring up to twice the time needed to test the same number of samples in comparison to the hypercube protocol. In order to offset this, we developed a faster version of the protocol (indeptSp), which minimizes the number of terminal pools and manages to retain savings compared to other protocols, despite marginally longer processing times. Conclusion: The increasing demand for more testing globally can benefit from application of pooling, especially in resource-restrained situations of the low- and middle-income countries or situations of high testing demand. Singular testing in situations of low prevalence should be systematically discouraged.

Background: Physical activity (PA) is known to be a protective lifestyle factor against several non-communicable diseases while its impact on infectious diseases, including Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) is not as clear.Methods: We performed univariate and multivariate logistic regression to identify associations between both objectively and subjectively measured PA collected prospectively and COVID-19 related outcomes (overall COVID-19, inpatient COVID-19, outpatient COVID-19, and COVID-19 death) in the UK Biobank cohort. Subsequently, we tested causality by using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses.Results: In the multivariable model, the increased acceleration vector magnitude PA (AMPA) is associated with a decreased probability of overall and outpatient COVID-19 with an odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of 0.80 (0.69, 0.93) and 0.74 (0.58, 0.95), respectively. No association is found between self-reported moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and COVID-19 related outcomes. No association is found by MR analyses.Conclusions: Our results indicate a protective effect of objectively measured PA and COVID-19 outcomes (outpatient COVID-19 and overall COVID-19) independent of age, sex, measures of obesity, and smoking status. Although the MR analyses do not support a causal association, that may be due to limited power. We conclude that policies to encourage and facilitate exercise at a population level during the pandemic should be considered.

Background: The COVID-19 pandemic is challenging the public health response system worldwide, especially in poverty-stricken, war-torn, and least developed countries (LDCs). Methods: We characterized the epidemiological features and spread dynamics of COVID-19 in Niger, quantified the effective reproduction number (Rt ), evaluated the impact of public health control measures, and estimated the disease burden. Results: As of 4 July 2020, COVID-19 has affected 29 communes of Niger with 1093 confirmed cases, among whom 741 (67.8%) were males. Of them 89 cases died, resulting in a case fatality rate (CFR) of 8.1%. Both attack rates and CFRs were increased with age (P < 0.0001). Health care workers accounted for 12.8% cases. Among the reported cases, 39.3% were isolated and treated at home, and 42.3% were asymptomatic. 74.6% cases were clustered in Niamey, the capital of Niger. The Rt fluctuated in correlation to control measures at different outbreak stages. After the authorities initiated the national response and implemented the strictest control measures, Rt quickly dropped to below the epidemic threshold (

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has hit all corners of the world, challenging governments to act promptly in controlling the spread of the pandemic. Due to limited resources and inferior technological capacities, developing countries including Vietnam have faced many challenges in combating the pandemic. Since the first cases were detected on 23 January 2020, Vietnam has undergone a 3-month fierce battle to control the outbreak with stringent measures from the government to mitigate the adverse impacts. In this study, we aim to give insights into the Vietnamese government's progress during the first three months of the outbreak. Additionally, we relatively compare Vietnam's response with that of other Southeast Asia countries to deliver a clear and comprehensive view on disease control strategies. Methods The data on the number of COVID-19 confirmed and recovered cases in Vietnam was obtained from the Dashboard for COVID-19 statistics of the Ministry of Health (https://ncov.vncdc.gov.vn/). The review on Vietnam's country-level responses was conducted by searching for relevant government documents issued on the online database 'Vietnam Laws Repository' (https://thuvienphapluat.vn/en/index.aspx), with the grey literature on Google and relevant official websites. A stringency index of government policies and the countries' respective numbers of confirmed cases of nine Southeast Asian countries were adapted from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/research/research-projects/coronavirus-government-response-tracker). All data was updated as of 24 April 2020. Results Preliminary positive results have been achieved given that the nation confirmed no new community-transmitted cases since 16 April and zero COVID-19 - related deaths throughout the 3-month pandemic period. To date, the pandemic has been successfully controlled thanks to the Vietnamese government's prompt, proactive and decisive responses including mobilization of the health care systems, security forces, economic policies, along with a creative and effective communication campaign corresponding with crucial milestones of the epidemic's progression. Conclusions Vietnam could be one of the role models in pandemic control for low-resource settings. As the pandemic is still ongoing in an unpredictable trajectory, disease control measures should continue to be put in place in the foreseeable short term.

Background: As an emergent and fulminant infectious disease, Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused a worldwide pandemic. The early identification and timely treatment of severe patients are crucial to reducing the mortality of COVID-19. This study aimed to investigate the clinical characteristics and early predictors for severe COVID-19, and to establish a prediction model for the identification and triage of severe patients. Methods: All confirmed patients with COVID-19 admitted by the Second Affiliated Hospital of Air Force Medical University were enrolled in this retrospective non-interventional study. The patients were divided into a mild group and a severe group, and the clinical data were compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate analysis were used to identify the independent early predictors for severe COVID-19, and the prediction model was constructed by multivariate logistic regression analysis. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the predictive value of the prediction model and each early predictor. Results: A total of 40 patients were enrolled in this study, of whom 19 were mild and 21 were severe. The proportions of patients with venerable age (≥60 years old), comorbidities, and hypertension in severe patients were higher than that of the mild (P < 0.05). The duration of fever and respiratory symptoms, and the interval from illness onset to viral clearance were longer in severe patients (P < 0.05). Most patients received at least one form of oxygen treatments, while severe patients required more mechanical ventilation (P < 0.05). Univariate and multivariate analysis showed that venerable age, hypertension, lymphopenia, hypoalbuminemia and elevated neutrophil lymphocyte ratio (NLR) were the independent high-risk factors for severe COVID-19. ROC curves demonstrated significant predictive value of age, lymphocyte count, albumin and NLR for severe COVID-19. The sensitivity and specificity of the newly constructed prediction model for predicting severe COVID-19 was 90.5% and 84.2%, respectively, and whose positive predictive value, negative predictive value and crude agreement were all over 85%. Conclusions: The severe COVID-19 risk model might help clinicians quickly identify severe patients at an early stage and timely take optimal therapeutic schedule for them.

Background Pregnant women have been classified as at risk for COVID-19 due to previous experience with influenza and other coronaviruses. The objective of this study was to identify risk factors for the complications and death in women of childbearing age and pregnant women with suspected COVID-19. Methods This retrospective cohort study was conducted from the beginning of the epidemic in Mexico until May 25, 2020. All women of childbearing age (13-49 years) from the open national COVID-19 database from the Ministry of Health of Mexico were considered for eligibility. SARS-COV-2 infection was confirmed or ruled out by RT-qPCR. We performed a bivariate and multivariable analysis to estimate mortality risk. Results Ten (2.2%) pregnant women with confirmed COVID-19 died. Positive pregnant patients did not have a higher risk of complications (admission to the ICU, pneumonia, or requirement for mechanical ventilation) or death than the controls. In the multivariate analysis, only history of diabetes and chronic kidney disease remained independently associated with death in the positive cohort. Seven (0.6%) pregnant women with a negative test died. In bivariate analysis, pregnant patients with a positive test had a higher risk of death than pregnant patients with a negative test (relative risk (RR) = 3.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.48-10.12), but no higher risk was found than in non-pregnant women with a positive test (RR = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.44-1.53), and 60-day mortality did not significantly differ among pregnant patients with or without a positive test (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.40, 95% CI = 0.12-1.30) or between COVID-19-positive patients who were pregnant or not pregnant (HR = 0.74, 95% CI = 0.35-1.56). Conclusions Pregnant patients do not have a greater risk of complications or death from COVID-19 than non-pregnant patients. The presence of diabetes mellitus and chronic disease increases the risk of death in women of childbearing age, but not specifically in pregnant patients.

Background: Epidemic outbreaks have significant impact on psychological well-being, increasing psychiatric morbidity among the population. We aimed to describe the early psychological impact of COVID-19 and its contributing factors in a large Spanish sample, globally and according to mental status (never mental disorder NMD, past mental disorder PMD, current mental disorder CMD). Methods: An online questionnaire was conducted between 19 and 26 March, five days after the official declaration of alarm and the lockdown order. Data included sociodemographic and clinical information and the DASS-21 and IES questionnaires. We analysed 21 207 responses using the appropriate descriptive and univariate tests as well as binary logistic regression to identify psychological risk and protective factors. Results: We found a statistically significant gradient in the psychological impact experienced in five domains according to mental status, with the NMD group being the least affected and the CMD group being the most affected. In the three groups, the depressive response was the most prevalent (NMD = 40.9%, PMD = 51.9%, CMD = 74.4%, F = 1011.459, P

Background Internet search engine data, such as Google Trends, was shown to be correlated with the incidence of COVID-19, but only in several countries. We aim to develop a model from a small number of countries to predict the epidemic alert level in all the countries worldwide. Methods The "interest over time" and "interest by region" Google Trends data of Coronavirus, pneumonia, and six COVID symptom-related terms were searched. The daily incidence of COVID-19 from 10 January to 23 April 2020 of 202 countries was retrieved from the World Health Organization. Three alert levels were defined. Ten weeks' data from 20 countries were used for training with machine learning algorithms. The features were selected according to the correlation and importance. The model was then tested on 2830 samples of 202 countries. Results Our model performed well in 154 (76.2%) countries, of which each had no more than four misclassified samples. In these 154 countries, the accuracy was 0.8133, and the kappa coefficient was 0.6828. While in all 202 countries, the accuracy was 0.7527, and the kappa coefficient was 0.5841. The proposed algorithm based on Random Forest Classification and nine features performed better compared to other machine learning methods and the models with different numbers of features. Conclusions Our result suggested that the model developed from 20 countries with Google Trends data and Random Forest Classification can be applied to predict the epidemic alert levels of most countries worldwide.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has overwhelmed hospitals in several areas in high-income countries. An effective response to this pandemic requires healthcare workers (HCWs) to be present at work, particularly in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) where they are already in critically low supply. To inform whether and to what degree policymakers in Bangladesh, and LMICs more broadly, should expect a drop in HCW attendance as COVID-19 continues to spread, this study aims to determine how HCW attendance has changed during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic in Bangladesh.MethodsThis study analyzed daily fingerprint-verified attendance data from all 527 public-sector secondary and tertiary care facilities in Bangladesh to describe HCW attendance from January 26, 2019 to March 22, 2020, by cadre, hospital type, and geographic division. We then regressed HCW attendance onto fixed effects for day-of-week, month, and hospital, as well as indicators for each of three pandemic periods: a China-focused period (January 11, 2020 [first confirmed COVID-19 death in China] until January 29, 2020), international-spread period (January 30, 2020 [World Health Organization’s declaration of a global emergency] until March 6, 2020), and local-spread period (March 7, 2020 [first confirmed COVID-19 case in Bangladesh] until the end of the study period).FindingsOn average between January 26, 2019 and March 22, 2020, 34·1% of doctors, 64·6% of nurses, and 70·6% of other healthcare staff were present for their scheduled shift. HCWs’ attendance rate increased with time in 2019 among all cadres. Nurses’ attendance level dropped by 2·5% points (95% CI; –3·2% to –1·8%) and 3·5% points (95% CI; –4·5% to –2·5%) during the international-spread and the local-spread periods of the COVID-19 pandemic, relative to the China-focused period. Similarly, the attendance level of other healthcare staff declined by 0·3% points (95% CI; –0·8% to 0·2%) and 2·3% points (95% CI; –3·0% to –1·6%) during the international-spread and local-spread periods, respectively. Among doctors, however, the international-spread and local-spread periods were associated with a statistically significant increase in attendance by 3·7% points (95% CI; 2·5% to 4·8%) and 4·9% points (95% CI; 3·5% to 6·4%), respectively. The reduction in attendance levels across all HCWs during the local-spread period was much greater at large hospitals, where the majority of COVID-19 testing and treatment took place, than that at small hospitals.ConclusionsAfter a year of significant improvements, HCWs’ attendance levels among nurses and other healthcare staff (who form the majority of Bangladesh’s healthcare workforce) have declined during the early stages of the COVID-19 pandemic. This finding may portend an even greater decrease in attendance if COVID-19 continues to spread in Bangladesh. Policymakers in Bangladesh and similar LMICs should undertake major efforts to achieve high attendance levels among HCWs, particularly nurses, such as by providing sufficient personal protective equipment as well as monetary and non-monetary incentives.

Background: The currently prevailing global threat of COVID-19 caused the publication numbers on coronaviruses to explode. The awareness of the scientific and public community is enormous. But what about the sense of all these undertakings and what can be learned about the future for a better understanding? These questions were answered with established bibliometric analyses of the time until the avalanche of publications unfolded. Methods: Chronological, geographical aspects of publication output on coronavirus were also evaluated under the influence of epidemiological and socio-economic parameters. Results: The trend in publication and citation numbers shows the strong influence of the past pandemics SARS and MERS with an untypical decline afterward. Research is becoming increasingly multidisciplinary over time. The USA and China, as the countries with the highest number of publications, are being displaced by other countries in the consideration of socio-economic and epidemiological aspects, which shows the effect of regional interest in corona research. A significant correlation was found between the number of SARS cases per country and related publications, while no correlation was found for MERS cases and articles. Conclusions: The results underline the need for sustainable and forward-looking approaches that should not end with the containment of COVID-19.

Background We are communicating the results of investigating statistics on SARS-CoV-2-related pneumonias in Russia: percentage, mortality, cases with other viral agents, cases accompanied by secondary bacterial pneumonias, age breakdown, clinical course and outcome. Methods We studied two sampling sets (Set 1 and Set 2). Set 1 consisted of results of testing 3382 assays of out-patients and hospital patients (5-88 years old) with community-acquired and hospital-acquired pneumonia of yet undetermined aetiology. Set 2 contained results of 1204 assays of hospital patients (12-94 years old) with pneumonia and COVID-19 already diagnosed by molecular biological techniques in test laboratories. The results were collected in twelve Russian cities/provinces in time range 2 March – 5 May 2020. Assays were analysed for 10 bacterial, 15 viral, 2 fungal and 2 parasitic aetiological agents. Results In Set 1, 4.35% of total pneumonia cases were related to SARS-CoV-2, with substantially larger proportion (18.75%) of deaths of pneumonia with COVID-19 diagnosed. However, studying Set 2, we revealed that 52.82% patients in it were also positive for different typical and atypical aetiological agents usually causing pneumonia. 433 COVID-19 patients (35.96%) were tested positive for various bacterial aetiological agents, with Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus and Haemophilus influenzae infections accounting for the majority of secondary pneumonia cases. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2, a low-pathogenic virus itself, becomes exceptionally dangerous if secondary bacterial pneumonia attacks a COVID-19 patient as a complication. An essential part of the severest complications and mortality associated with COVID-19 in Russia in March-May 2020, may be attributed to secondary bacterial pneumonia and to a much less extent viral co-infections. The problem of hospital-acquired bacterial infection is exceptionally urgent in treating SARS-CoV-2 patients. The risk of secondary bacterial pneumonia and its further complications, should be given very serious attention in combating SARS-CoV-2.

Background: Coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19), a pandemic that brought the whole world to a standstill, has led to financial and health care burden. We aimed to evaluate epidemiological characteristics, needs of resources, outcomes, and global burden of the disease. Methods: Systematic review was performed searching PubMed from December 1, 2019, to March 25, 2020, for full-text observational studies that described epidemiological characteristics, following MOOSE protocol. Global data were collected from the JHU-Corona Virus Resource Center, WHO-COVID-2019 situation reports, KFF.org, and Worldometers.info until March 31, 2020. The prevalence percentages were calculated. The global data were plotted in excel to calculate case fatality rate (CFR), predicted CFR, COVID-19 specific mortality rate, and doubling time for cases and deaths. CFR was predicted using Pearson correlation, regression models, and coefficient of determination. Results: From 21 studies of 2747 patients, 8.4% of patients died, 20.4% recovered, 15.4% were admitted to ICU and 14.9% required ventilation. COVID-19 was more prevalent in patients with hypertension (19.3%), smoking (11.3%), diabetes mellitus (10%), and cardiovascular diseases (7.4%). Common complications were pneumonia (82%), cardiac complications (26.4%), acute respiratory distress syndrome (15.7%), secondary infection (11.2%), and septic shock (4.3%). Though CFR and COVID-19 specific death rates are dynamic, they were consistently high for Italy, Spain, and Iran. Polynomial growth models were best fit for all countries for predicting CFR. Though many interventions have been implemented, stern measures like nationwide lockdown and school closure occurred after very high infection rates (>10cases per 100 000population) prevailed. Given the trend of government measures and decline of new cases in China and South Korea, most countries will reach the peak between April 1-20, if interventions are followed. Conclusions: A collective approach undertaken by a responsible government, wise strategy implementation and a receptive population may help contain the spread of COVID-19 outbreak. Close monitoring of predictive models of such indicators in the highly affected countries would help to evaluate the potential fatality if the second wave of pandemic occurs. The future studies should be focused on identifying accurate indicators to mitigate the effect of underestimation or overestimation of COVID-19 burden.

BackgroundCoronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the most hectic pandemic of the era, is increasing exponentially and taking thousands of lives worldwide. This study aimed to assess the prevalence of pre-existing morbidities among COVID-19 infected patients and their mortality risks against each type of pre-existing morbidity category.MethodsTo conduct this systematic review and meta-analysis, Medline, Web of Science, Scopus, and CINAHL databases were searched using specified relavent keywords. Further searches were conducted using the reference list of the selected studies, renowned pre-print servers (e.g., medRxiv, bioRixv, SSRN), and relevant journal websites. Studies written in the English language included if those were conducted among COVID-19 patients with and without comorbidities and presented survivor vs. non-survivor counts or hazard/odds of deaths or survivors against types of pre-existing morbidities. Comorbidities reported in the selected studies were grouped into eight categories. The pooled likelihoods of deaths in each category were estimated using a fixed or random-effect model, based on the heterogeneity assessment. Publication bias was assessed by visual inspection of the funnel plot asymmetry and Egger’s regression test. Trim and Fill method was used if there any publication bias was found.ResultsA total of 42 studies included in this study comprised of 39,398 samples. The most common pre-existing morbidities in COVID-19 infected patients were hypertension (36.5%), cardiovascular disease (11.9%), and diabetes (22.0%). The higher likelihood of deaths was found among COVID-19 patients who had pre-existing cardiovascular diseases (OR: 3.32, 95% CI: 2.79-3.95), immune and metabolic disorders (OR: 2.39, 95% CI: 2.00-2.85), respiratory diseases (OR: 2.02, 95% CI: 1.80-2.26), cerebrovascular diseases (OR: 4.12, 95% CI: 3.04-5.58), any types of cancers (OR: 2.22, 95% CI: 1.63-3.03), renal (OR: 3.02, 95% CI: 2.60-3.52), and liver diseases (OR: 1.44, 95% CI: 1.21-1.71).ConclusionsThis study provides evidence of a higher likelihood of deaths among COVID-19 patients against morbidity categories. These findings could potentially help healthcare providers to sort out the most endangered COVID-19 patients by comorbidities, take precautionary measures during hospitalization, assess susceptibility to death, and prioritize their treatment, which could potentially reduce the number of fatalities in COVID-19.

Background: The focus of the study is to assess the role of different transport means in the importation and diffusion of 1918-19 influenza and a novel 2019 corona virus designated as COVID-19 in Nigeria. Methods: The study provides a review of the means by which the two pandemics were imported into the country and the roles the transport means of each period played in the local spread of the epidemics. Results: The study notes that seaports and railways, being the emerging transportation modes in the country were significant to the importation and local diffusion of 1918-19 influenza, respectively, while air transport is significant to the importation of the current COVID-19 pandemic. Conclusions: The study concludes that increasing preference for the transport at a given epoch is significant to the diffusion of prevailing epidemic in the epoch.

Background: In a surgical setting, COVID-19 patients may trigger in-hospital outbreaks and have worse postoperative outcomes. Despite these risks, there have been no consistent statements on surgical guidelines regarding the perioperative screening or management of COVID-19 patients, and we do not have objective global data that describe the current conditions surrounding this issue. This study aimed to clarify the current global surgical practice including COVID-19 screening, preventive measures and in-hospital infection under the COVID-19 pandemic, and to clarify the international gaps on infection control policies among countries worldwide.Methods: During April 2-8, 2020, a cross-sectional online survey on surgical practice was distributed to surgeons worldwide through international surgical societies, social media and personal contacts. Main outcome and measures included preventive measures and screening policies of COVID-19 in surgical practice and centers' experiences of in-hospital COVID-19 infection. Data were analyzed by country's cumulative deaths number by April 8, 2020 (high risk, >5000; intermediate risk, 100-5000; low risk, Results: A total of 936 centers in 71 countries responded to the survey (high risk, 330 centers; intermediate risk, 242 centers; low risk, 364 centers). In the majority (71.9%) of the centers, local guidelines recommended preoperative testing based on symptoms or suspicious radiologic findings. Universal testing for every surgical patient was recommended in only 18.4% of the centers. In-hospital COVID-19 infection was reported from 31.5% of the centers, with higher rates in higher risk countries (high risk, 53.6%; intermediate risk, 26.4%; low risk, 14.8%; P Conclusions: This large international survey captured the global surgical practice under the COVID-19 pandemic and highlighted the insufficient preoperative screening of COVID-19 in the current surgical practice. More intensive screening programs will be necessary particularly in severely affected countries/institutions.Study registration: Registered in ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT04344197.