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The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets -- such as stocks and bonds -- that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui (Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico's coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function -- benefit maximization -- emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function -- a risk-benefit tradeoff framework -- include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spatially explicit models are an important component of systematic conservation planning, enabling the depiction of biodiversity metrics across landscapes and objective evaluation of candidate sites for conservation delivery. However, sites considered "best" for conservation are typically viewed from the standpoint of biological value and may not be the most effective or efficient when risk of habitat loss, cost of conservation, intended conservation treatments, and overall conservation strategy are considered. We evaluated risk of habitat loss, land cost, and landscape context for geographic areas harboring most‐dense to least‐dense population quartiles for 16 species of grassland birds in the US northern Great Plains. Differences in land cost, risk of grassland conversion, and landscape context among quartiles and species indicated that a minimum‐area strategy may be inefficient and even ineffective. Priority zones for western species were generally associated with lower agricultural land cost, more protected land, and landscape characteristics associated with intact grasslands; eastern species were generally associated with higher agricultural land cost, tillage probability, grass loss, cropland, development, forest, Conservation Reserve Program grasslands, and distance to grass. Our results indicate that addressing areas outside of population cores increases conservation options and may provide substantial benefits to portions of populations that are most vulnerable to habitat loss or other stressors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to biodiversity declines worldwide, over 190 nations committed to protect 30% of their lands and waters by 2030 (hereafter, 30×30). Systematic conservation planning and return on investment analysis can be helpful tools for determining where protection efforts could deliver the most efficient and effective reserve design, and supporting decision‐making when trade‐offs among objectives are required. Here, we propose a framework for efficient "30×30" implementation and apply it to the state of California (USA). Because conservation of a region's full suite of biodiversity is the primary objective of the global initiative, we prioritized representation in our analysis. We used Zonation to identify networks that close the gap in representation of major habitat types in California's protected area network and that also conserve the places important for biodiversity or climate change mitigation. We identified networks that are efficient relative to metrics likely to be important in implementation including land acquisition cost, number of transactions, and conservation benefit per hectare, and we illustrate not only trade‐offs associated with these metrics but also differences in the co‐benefits achieved. Five of the eight major habitat types in California are not currently protected at a 30% level statewide, and if representation was achieved solely through private land acquisition, targets could be met for as little as $5.84 billion, with as few as 364 transactions, or with 2.18 million additional conserved hectares. Implementation of 30×30 will likely require more flexibility than a single network design. A "no regrets" action would be to protect properties that were prioritized across all networks and additional implementation should include properties with characteristics of any of the individual networks. Our analytical framework and implementation guidance can be applied to other geographies and jurisdictions to increase the likelihood of both meeting 30×30 targets and delivering the conservation benefits they aim to secure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract In response to biodiversity declines worldwide, over 190 nations committed to protect 30% of their lands and waters by 2030 (hereafter, 30×30). Systematic conservation planning and return on investment analysis can be helpful tools for determining where protection efforts could deliver the most efficient and effective reserve design, and supporting decision‐making when trade‐offs among objectives are required. Here, we propose a framework for efficient “30×30” implementation and apply it to the state of California (USA). Because conservation of a region's full suite of biodiversity is the primary objective of the global initiative, we prioritized representation in our analysis. We used Zonation to identify networks that close the gap in representation of major habitat types in California's protected area network and that also conserve the places important for biodiversity or climate change mitigation. We identified networks that are efficient relative to metrics likely to be important in implementation including land acquisition cost, number of transactions, and conservation benefit per hectare, and we illustrate not only trade‐offs associated with these metrics but also differences in the co‐benefits achieved. Five of the eight major habitat types in California are not currently protected at a 30% level statewide, and if representation was achieved solely through private land acquisition, targets could be met for as little as $5.84 billion, with as few as 364 transactions, or with 2.18 million additional conserved hectares. Implementation of 30×30 will likely require more flexibility than a single network design. A “no regrets” action would be to protect properties that were prioritized across all networks and additional implementation should include properties with characteristics of any of the individual networks. Our analytical framework and implementation guidance can be applied to other geographies and jurisdictions to increase the likelihood of both meeting 30×30 targets and delivering the conservation benefits they aim to secure.

Abstract Spatially explicit models are an important component of systematic conservation planning, enabling the depiction of biodiversity metrics across landscapes and objective evaluation of candidate sites for conservation delivery. However, sites considered “best” for conservation are typically viewed from the standpoint of biological value and may not be the most effective or efficient when risk of habitat loss, cost of conservation, intended conservation treatments, and overall conservation strategy are considered. We evaluated risk of habitat loss, land cost, and landscape context for geographic areas harboring most‐dense to least‐dense population quartiles for 16 species of grassland birds in the US northern Great Plains. Differences in land cost, risk of grassland conversion, and landscape context among quartiles and species indicated that a minimum‐area strategy may be inefficient and even ineffective. Priority zones for western species were generally associated with lower agricultural land cost, more protected land, and landscape characteristics associated with intact grasslands; eastern species were generally associated with higher agricultural land cost, tillage probability, grass loss, cropland, development, forest, Conservation Reserve Program grasslands, and distance to grass. Our results indicate that addressing areas outside of population cores increases conservation options and may provide substantial benefits to portions of populations that are most vulnerable to habitat loss or other stressors.

The challenge of selecting strategies to adapt to climate change is complicated by the presence of irreducible uncertainties regarding future conditions. Decisions regarding long-term investments in conservation actions contain significant risk of failure due to these inherent uncertainties. To address this challenge, decision makers need an arsenal of sophisticated but practical tools to help guide spatial conservation strategies. Theory asserts that managing risks can be achieved by diversifying an investment portfolio to include assets – such as stocks and bonds – that respond inversely to one another under a given set of conditions. We demonstrate an approach for formalizing the diversification of conservation assets (land parcels) and actions (restoration, species reintroductions) by using correlation structure to quantify the degree of risk for any proposed management investment. We illustrate a framework for identifying future habitat refugia by integrating species distribution modeling, scenarios of climate change and sea level rise, and impacts to critical habitat. Using the plains coqui (Eleutherodactylus juanariveroi), an endangered amphibian known from only three small wetland populations on Puerto Rico’s coastal plains, we evaluate the distribution of potential refugia under two model parameterizations and four future sea-level rise scenarios. We then apply portfolio theory using two distinct objective functions and eight budget levels to inform investment strategies for mitigating risk and increasing species persistence probability. Models project scenario-specific declines in coastal freshwater wetlands from 2% to nearly 30% and concurrent expansions of transitional marsh and estuarine open water. Conditional on the scenario, island-wide species distribution is predicted to contract by 25% to 90%. Optimal portfolios under the first objective function – benefit maximization – emphasizes translocating frogs to existing protected areas rather than investing in the protection of new habitat. Alternatively, optimal strategies using the second objective function – a risk-benefit tradeoff framework – include significant investment to protect parcels for the purpose of reintroduction or establishing new populations. These findings suggest that leveraging existing protected areas for species persistence, while less costly, may contain excessive risk and could result in diminished conservation benefits. Although our modeling includes numerous assumptions and simplifications, we believe this framework provides useful inference for exploring resource dynamics and developing robust adaptation strategies using an approach that is generalizable to other conservation problems which are spatial or portfolio in nature and subject to unresolvable uncertainty.

Minimum patch size criteria for habitat protection reflect the conservation principle that a single large (SL) patch of habitat has higher biodiversity than several small (SS) patches of the same total area (SL > SS). Nonetheless, this principle is often incorrect, and biodiversity conservation requires placing more emphasis on protection of large numbers of small patches (SS > SL). We used a global database reporting the abundances of species across hundreds of patches to assess the SL > SS principle in systems where small patches are much smaller than the typical minimum patch size criteria applied for biodiversity conservation (i.e., ∼85% of patches <100 ha). The 76 metacommunities we examined included 4401 species in 1190 patches. From each metacommunity, we resampled species–area accumulation curves to evaluate how biodiversity responded to habitat existing as a few large patches or as many small patches. Counter to the SL > SS principle and consistent with previous syntheses, species richness accumulated more rapidly when adding several small patches (45.2% SS > SL vs. 19.9% SL > SS) to reach the same cumulative area, even for the very small patches in our data set. Responses of taxa to habitat fragmentation differed, which suggests that when a given total area of habitat is to be protected, overall biodiversity conservation will be most effective if that habitat is composed of as many small patches as possible, plus a few large ones. Because minimum patch size criteria often require larger patches than the small patches we examined, our results suggest that such criteria hinder efforts to protect biodiversity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurately quantifying species' area requirements is a prerequisite for effective area-based conservation. This typically involves collecting tracking data on species of interest and then conducting home-range analyses. Problematically, autocorrelation in tracking data can result in space needs being severely underestimated. Based on the previous work, we hypothesized the magnitude of underestimation varies with body mass, a relationship that could have serious conservation implications. To evaluate this hypothesis for terrestrial mammals, we estimated home-range areas with global positioning system (GPS) locations from 757 individuals across 61 globally distributed mammalian species with body masses ranging from 0.4 to 4000 kg. We then applied block cross-validation to quantify bias in empirical home-range estimates. Area requirements of mammals 1, meaning the scaling of the relationship changed substantially at the upper end of the mass spectrum.

Spatial management is a valuable strategy to advance regional goals for nature conservation, economic development, and human health. One challenge of spatial management is navigating the prioritization of multiple features. This challenge becomes more pronounced in dynamic management scenarios, in which boundaries are flexible in space and time in response to changing biological, environmental, or socioeconomic conditions. To implement dynamic management, decision-support tools are needed to guide spatial prioritization as feature distributions shift under changing conditions. Marxan is a widely applied decision-support tool designed for static management scenarios, but its utility in dynamic management has not been evaluated. EcoCast is a new decision-support tool developed explicitly for the dynamic management of multiple features, but it lacks some of Marxans functionality. We used a hindcast analysis to compare the capacity of these 2 tools to prioritize 4 marine species in a dynamic management scenario for fisheries sustainability. We successfully configured Marxan to operate dynamically on a daily time scale to resemble EcoCast. The relationship between EcoCast solutions and the underlying species distributions was more linear and less noisy, whereas Marxan solutions had more contrast between waters that were good and poor to fish. Neither decision-support tool clearly outperformed the other; the appropriateness of each depends on management purpose, resource-manager preference, and technological capacity of tool developers. Article impact statement: Marxan can function as a decision-support tool for dynamic management scenarios in which boundaries are flexible in space and time.

Biodiversity is often described as having multiple facets, including species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity. In this paper, we argue that phylogenetic diversity itself has three distinct facets-lineage diversification, character divergence and survival time-that can be quantified using distinct branch length metrics on an evolutionary tree. Each dimension is related to different processes of macroevolution, has different spatial patterns and is tied to distinct goals for conserving biodiversity and protecting its future resilience and evolutionary potential. We compared the landscapes identified as top conservation priorities by each of these three metrics in a conservation gap analysis for California, a world biodiversity hotspot, using herbarium data on the biogeography and evolutionary relationships of more than 5000 native plant species. Our analysis incorporated a novel continuous metric of current land protection status, fine-scale data on landscape intactness and an optimization algorithm used to identify complementary priority sites containing concentrations of taxa that are evolutionarily unique, vulnerable due to small range size and/or poorly protected across their ranges. Top conservation priorities included pockets of coastal and northern California that ranked highly for all three phylodiversity dimensions and for species richness, as well as sites uniquely identified by each metric whose value may depend on whether properties such as genetic divergence, high net diversification or independent survival experience are most desirable in an Anthropocene flora.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Place-based approaches to marine conservation identify areas that are crucial to the success of populations, species, communities, or ecosystems, and that may be candidates for special management actions. In the United States, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration defined Biologically Important Areas (BIAs) for cetaceans (whales, dolphins, and porpoises) as areas and periods that individual populations or species are known to preferentially use for certain activities or where small resident populations occur. The activities considered to be biologically important are feeding, migrating, and activities associated with reproduction. We present an approach using spatial optimization to refine the BIA delineation process to be more objective and reproducible for conservation planners and decision makers who wish to use various spatial criteria to address conservation or management objectives. We present a case study concerning feeding bowhead whales (Balaena mysticetus) and bowhead whale calves in the western Beaufort Sea to illustrate the mechanics and benefits of our optimization model. In the case study, we incorporate spatial information about whales’ relative density and optimally delineate BIAs under different thresholds for minimum patch (cluster) size and total area encompassed within the BIA network. Results from our case study showed three consistent patterns related to minimum cluster size (contiguity) and maximum area threshold for both BIA types and all months: (1) cells with the highest whale density were selected when contiguity or maximum area thresholds were small; (2) for a given area threshold, the number of whales inside BIAs was inversely proportional to cluster size; and (3) the number of whales inside BIAs initially increased rapidly as the area threshold increased, but eventually approached an asymptote. Additionally, information on temporal variability in a BIA may influence the development of conservation, management, monitoring, or mitigation methods. To provide additional insight into the ecological characteristics of the BIAs selected during the optimization step, we quantified inter-annual variability in whale occurrence and density within individual BIAs using statistical techniques. The bowhead whale BIAs and associated information that we present can be incorporated with other relevant information (e.g., objectives, stressors, costs, acceptable risk, legal constraints) into conservation and management decision-making processes.

Conserving genetic connectivity is fundamental to species persistence, yet rarely is made actionable into spatial planning for imperilled species. Climate change and habitat degradation have added urgency to embrace connectivity into networks of protected areas. Our two-step process integrates a network model with a functional connectivity model, to identify population centres important to maintaining genetic connectivity then to delineate those pathways most likely to facilitate connectivity thereamong for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), a species of conservation concern ranging across eleven western US states and into two Canadian provinces. This replicable process yielded spatial action maps, able to be prioritized by importance to maintaining range-wide genetic connectivity. We used these maps to investigate the efficacy of 3.2 million ha designated as priority areas for conservation (PACs) to encompass functional connectivity. We discovered that PACs encompassed 41.1% of cumulative functional connectivity—twice the amount of connectivity as random—and disproportionately encompassed the highest-connectivity landscapes. Comparing spatial action maps to impedances to connectivity such as cultivation and woodland expansion allows both planning for future management and tracking outcomes from past efforts.

Biodiversity is often described as having multiple facets, including species richness, functional diversity and phylogenetic diversity. In this paper, we argue that phylogenetic diversity itself has three distinct facets-lineage diversification, character divergence and survival time-that can be quantified using distinct branch length metrics on an evolutionary tree. Each dimension is related to different processes of macroevolution, has different spatial patterns and is tied to distinct goals for conserving biodiversity and protecting its future resilience and evolutionary potential. We compared the landscapes identified as top conservation priorities by each of these three metrics in a conservation gap analysis for California, a world biodiversity hotspot, using herbarium data on the biogeography and evolutionary relationships of more than 5000 native plant species. Our analysis incorporated a novel continuous metric of current land protection status, fine-scale data on landscape intactness and an optimization algorithm used to identify complementary priority sites containing concentrations of taxa that are evolutionarily unique, vulnerable due to small range size and/or poorly protected across their ranges. Top conservation priorities included pockets of coastal and northern California that ranked highly for all three phylodiversity dimensions and for species richness, as well as sites uniquely identified by each metric whose value may depend on whether properties such as genetic divergence, high net diversification or independent survival experience are most desirable in an Anthropocene flora.This article is part of the theme issue 'Biological collections for understanding biodiversity in the Anthropocene'.

Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) is a planning framework used to identify new conservation areas on the basis of the spatial distribution of species, ecosystems, and their services to human societies. The ongoing accumulation of intraspecific genetic data on a variety of species offers a way to gain knowledge of intraspecific genetic diversity and to estimate several population characteristics useful in conservation, such as dispersal and population size. Here, we review how intraspecific genetic data have been integrated into SCP and highlight their potential for identifying conservation area networks that represent intraspecific genetic diversity comprehensively and that ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity in the face of global change. Conservation area networks on land and sea need to be expanded to meet the objectives of the post-2020 global biodiversity framework. Spatial conservation prioritization (SCP) is a rigorous framework to identify suitable areas for protection on the basis of scientific data. Integrating intraspecific genetic data in SCP can help identify networks of conservation areas that are more representative of biological diversity and likely better at ensuring its long-term persistence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We applied spatial distribution and reserve selection modeling to identify critical habitat network for 50 critically endangered plant species of Uzbekistan. We created maps of relative habitat suitability, converted them into maps of species critical habitat, and the latter served as input to the spatial conservation prioritization program Zonation. Although all studied species were extremely rare, the extent of their predicted critical habitat ranged from 2.6 to 15,508 km2 and did not correlate with the number of occurrence records. It appears that the extent of the threatened species predicted suitable area is an indicator of whether the species rarity is inherent due to vary narrow ecological niche or caused solely by anthropogenic activity. This has important conservation implications. Imperiled species from the first category are less amenable (if at all) to such conservation actions as trans- or relocation (i.e. there is no alternative to protecting the last remaining populations). Species from the second group can potentially grow in many more locations than they currently occupy, and therefore, for these species, translocation can be the most appropriate strategy when their last remaining locations are degraded or can not be protected for whatever reason. Based on results of nature reserve design that utilized SDM-predicted maps for 50 imperiled species, we recommend adding new areas to the existing network of protected areas to cover critical habitats of highly threatened plant species. The highest priority for adding have the territories harboring critical habitat of disproportionally high number of imperiled species, and we found that they all are concentrated in the eastern part of Uzbekistan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1995, California established the first conservation banking program in the United States to provide a new financial mechanism to conserve wildlife and natural communities in rapidly developing regions. Conservation banks are lands protected and managed for conservation of species of concern. Developers may purchase species credits from a conservation bank to offset adverse impacts of development at another site. Conservation banks facilitate pooling of mitigation resources from multiple development projects to protect planned habitat reserves of greater ecological value than can be achieved with project-byproject mitigation. In this study, we conducted the first ever assessment of the ecological performance of the California Conservation Banking Program. Specifically, we investigated to what extent conservation banks contribute to achieving regional conservation objectives.We hypothesized that conservation banks within a region should have similarly high ecological values if they are appropriately evaluated and prioritized based on principles of conservation planning. We created a new ecological value metric to evaluate and rank conservation banks and used it to compare potential conservation banks or reserves within a region. We found the ecological value of banks within regions varied and concluded that maximizing the ecological contribution of conservation banks requires prioritization of lands for potential bank sites and reserves. Our analysis identified circumstances where conservation banking is not an appropriate mitigation mechanism to protect rare species and natural communities. We concluded that limited funding for conservation planning should be directed toward regions where species of concern are wide-ranging, biodiversity is highly variable, threats to species of concern are highly varied, and there are many potential conservation bank sites. © 2013 The Wildlife Society.

Marine spatial planning (MSP), whereby areas of the ocean are zoned for different uses, has great potential to reduce or eliminate conflicts between competing management goals, but only if strategically applied. The recent literature overwhelmingly agrees that including stakeholders in these planning processes is critical to success; but, given the countless alternative ways even simple spatial regulations can be configured, how likely is it that a stakeholder-driven process will generate plans that deliver on the promise of MSP? Here, we use a spatially explicit, dynamic bioeconomic model to show that stakeholder-generated plans are doomed to fail in the absence of strong scientific guidance. While strategically placed spatial regulations can improve outcomes remarkably, the vast majority of possible plans fail to achieve this potential. Surprisingly, existing scientific rules of thumb do little to improve outcomes. Here, we develop an alternative approach in which models are used to identify efficient plans, which are then modified by stakeholders. Even if stakeholders alter these initial proposals considerably, results hugely outperform plans guided by scientific rules of thumb. Our results underscore the importance of spatially explicit dynamic models for the management of marine resources and illustrate how such models can be harmoniously integrated into a stakeholder-driven MSP process.

To remain effective into the future, protected areas must be resilient to change. Evaluating the resilience of protected areas requires data across large spatial and temporal scales, which has proven to be a strength of community science in conservation research. Here, we assess the contributions of community science to different topics of protected area research and identify gaps where community science can be used more effectively. We performed a literature search aimed at capturing the research on resilient protected area design and management, then used Latent Dirichlet Allocation to model the topics represented in this corpus. Once topics were established, we searched for evidence of community science being used in each publication. Our analysis showed that there are five main areas of focus in resilient protected area research: biodiversity, climate change, connectivity, resources and ecosystem services, and social governance. We found limited evidence in the literature of community science directly assisting research in these areas. Community science has proven effective for extensive and cost‐effective data collection in other situations; therefore, we recommend ways in which conservation managers and researchers can incorporate community science in the design and management of resilient protected areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Context: Metapopulation theory makes useful predictions for conservation in fragmented landscapes. For randomly distributed habitat patches, it predicts that the ability of a metapopulation to recover from low occupancy level (the "metapopulation capacity") linearly increases with habitat amount. This prediction derives from describing the dispersal between two patches as a function of their features and the distance separating them only, without interaction with the rest of the landscape. However, if individuals can stop dispersal when hitting a patch ("habitat detection and settling" ability), the rest of habitat may modulate the dispersal between two patches by intercepting dispersers (which constitutes a "shadow" effect). Objectives: We aim at evaluating how habitat detection and settling ability, and the subsequent shadow effect, can modulate the relationship between the metapopulation capacity and the habitat amount in the metapopulation. Methods: Considering two simple metapopulation models with contrasted animal movement types, we used analytical predictions and simulations to study the relationship between habitat amount and metapopulation capacity under various levels of dispersers' habitat detection and settling ability. Results: Increasing habitat detection and settling ability led to: (i) larger metapopulation capacity values than expected from classic metapopulation theory and (ii) concave habitat amount–metapopulation capacity relationship. Conclusions: Overlooking dispersers' habitat detection and settling ability may lead to underestimating the metapopulation capacity and misevaluating the conservation benefit of increasing habitat amount. Therefore, a further integration of our mechanistic understanding of animals' displacement into metapopulation theory is urgently needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protected areas are often blamed for offering refuge to pest species populations, giving rise to the so-called “reserve effect”. Nevertheless, this major conservation side effect has seldom been investigated or verified on a local scale. Along the borders of two protected areas of different size, we modelled wild boar individual likelihood of being either inside or outside the protected areas throughout the year, considering their activity rhythms and resource availability. No evidence of reserve effect was found in the small protected area, yet the percentage of wild boar moving across the border was smaller in the large one. Moreover, although wild boar use of the large protected area resulted to increase in autumn, we showed that this was not the consequence of hunting avoidance. Our results clearly highlighted the importance to verify reserve effect on a local scale with studies based on detailed information on animal spatial behaviour and environmental variables.

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The rate of deforestation in the Amazon is increasing. Predictive models estimate that as a result of agricultural expansion 40% of these forests will be lost by 2050. As a consequence the habitat of forest-dwelling species such as the Endangered black-faced black spider monkey Ateles chamek is being lost, particularly along the arc of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon. We used species distribution modelling to (1) define the distribution of this spider monkey, using environmental predictors, (2) calculate the area of this distribution covered by the protected area network, and (3) calculate the expected loss of the species' habitat under future scenarios of deforestation. We found that the species occupies only c. 28% of its extent of occurrence. Only 32% of the species' area of occupancy is legally protected, and the modelling suggests that 31–40% of the species' habitat will be lost by 2050. We highlight three unprotected regions with extensive forest cover that are predicted to become severely deforested by 2050 as priority regions for expanding the protected area network. We also propose landscape management and restoration in three human-modified regions. Our study provides an example of how species distribution modelling can be applied to assess threats to species and support decision makers in implementing conservation actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rain forests on Borneo support exceptional concentrations of endemic insect biodiversity, but many of these forest‐dependent species are threatened by land‐use change. Totally protected areas (TPAs) of forest are key for conserving biodiversity, and we examined the effectiveness of the current TPA network for conserving range‐restricted butterflies in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo). We found that mean diurnal temperature range and precipitation of the wettest quarter of the year were the most important predictors of butterfly distributions (N = 77 range‐restricted species), and that species richness increased with elevation and aboveground forest carbon. On average across all species, TPAs were effective at conserving ~43% of species' ranges, but encompassed only ~40% of areas with high species richness (i.e., containing at least 50% of our study species). The TPA network also included only 33%–40% of areas identified as high priority for conserving range‐restricted species, as determined by a systematic conservation prioritization analysis. Hence, the current TPA network is reasonably effective at conserving range‐restricted butterflies, although considerable areas of high species richness (6,565 km2) and high conservation priority (11,152–12,531 km2) are not currently protected. Sabah's remaining forests, and the range‐restricted species they support, are under continued threat from agricultural expansion and urban development, and our study highlights important areas of rain forest that require enhanced protection. Abstract in Malay is available with online material. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design of marine reserves is complex and fraught with uncertainty. However, protection of critical habitat is of paramount importance for reserve design. We present a case study as an example of a reserve design based on fine-scale habitats, the affinities of exploited species to these habitats, adult mobility, and the physical forcing affecting the dynamics of the habitats. These factors and their interaction are integrated in an algorithm that determines the optimal size and location of a marine reserve for a set of 20 exploited species within five different habitats inside a large kelp forest in southern California. The result is a reserve that encompasses similar to 42% of the kelp forest. Our approach differs fundamentally from many other marine reserve siting methods in which goals of area, diversity, or biomass are targeted a priori. Rather, our method was developed to determine how large a reserve must be within a specific area to protect a self-sustaining assemblage of exploited species. The algorithm is applicable across different ecosystems, spatial scales, and for any number of species. The result is a reserve in which habitat value is optimized for a predetermined set of exploited species against the area left open to exploitation. The importance of fine-scale habitat definitions for the exploited species off La Jolla is exemplified by the spatial pattern of habitats and the stability of these habitats within the kelp forest, both of which appear to be determined by ocean microclimate.

Marine reserves affect areas outside reserve boundaries via the displacement of fishing effort and the export of production. Here we focus on how these key factors interact to influence the results seen once reserves are created. For a settlement-limited fishery, export of increased production from within reserves can offset the effects of displaced fishing effort. We develop simple mathematical models that indicate net fisheries benefits can accrue at closures up to and perhaps beyond 50% of total stock area through the export of production, given documented average increases in biomass within reserves. However, reserve monitoring programs face problems identifying independent control sites because the spatial extent of export is unknown. Efforts to monitor reserve impacts on recruitment are further complicated by the fact that large reserve closures are likely necessary before significant changes in recruitment can be detected above normal interannual fluctuations. Resolving these limitations requires comprehensive monitoring data before reserves are implemented. Fortunately, studies of reserves that used Before-After, Control-Impact (BACI) experimental designs show that control and reserve sites were equivalent prior to protection, and that control sites improved after reserves were in place. Consequently, any bias in our current perception of reserve impacts likely underestimates their effect.

Ecological distance‐based spatial capture–recapture models (SCR) are a promising approach for simultaneously estimating animal density and connectivity, both of which affect spatial population processes and ultimately species persistence. We explored how SCR models can be integrated into reserve‐design frameworks that explicitly acknowledge both the spatial distribution of individuals and their space use resulting from landscape structure. We formulated the design of wildlife reserves as a budget‐constrained optimization problem and conducted a simulation to explore 3 different SCR‐informed optimization objectives that prioritized different conservation goals by maximizing the number of protected individuals, reserve connectivity, and density‐weighted connectivity. We also studied the effect on our 3 objectives of enforcing that the space‐use requirements of individuals be met by the reserve for individuals to be considered conserved (referred to as home‐range constraints). Maximizing local population density resulted in fragmented reserves that would likely not aid long‐term population persistence, and maximizing the connectivity objective yielded reserves that protected the fewest individuals. However, maximizing density‐weighted connectivity or preemptively imposing home‐range constraints on reserve design yielded reserves of largely spatially compact sets of parcels covering high‐density areas in the landscape with high functional connectivity between them. Our results quantify the extent to which reserve design is constrained by individual home‐range requirements and highlight that accounting for individual space use in the objective and constraints can help in the design of reserves that balance abundance and connectivity in a biologically relevant manner. Article impact statement: Reserves based on spatial capture–recapture models and home‐range‐area constraints balance animal density and functional connectivity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Protecting wild places is conservation's most pressing task given rapid contemporary declines in biodiversity and massive land use changes. We suggest that behavioural ecology has a valuable, albeit limited, role to play in this agenda. Behaviourally based empiricism and modelling, especially of animal movements and habitat preferences have enjoyed wide applicability in delineating reserve boundaries. In protected areas that sanction exploitation, it may also be important to understand individuals' behavioural and life-history responses to management decisions. We also argue, however, that the in-depth studies of behavioural ecologists may have an important role in conservation by elevating species' status from mundane to charismatic and often sparking public empathy, and their mere presence in field generates local (or broader) intrigue. More generally behavioural ecologists will only be listened to, and their contributions considered of conservation importance, if they become more involved in decision-making processes as witnessed by several prominent examples that have supported the establishment of protected areas. This article is part of the theme issue 'Linking behaviour to dynamics of populations and communities: application of novel approaches in behavioural ecology to conservation'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Landscape configuration matters for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem function. • Private land conservation may serve an important role in future land protection. • Compared to public protected lands, private lands are smaller, and more isolated. • Management either allows for extraction or is unknown in private protected lands. • Work is needed to improve the effectiveness of land protection as a conservation tool. Abstract Protected lands are an established method for conserving biodiversity and ecosystem services. Moreover, agencies and organizations are increasingly looking to private lands as places for new protected lands establishment. However, the effectiveness of protected lands in guarding against the loss of species or services can vary based on their coverage of habitat and species, management strategy, and their size and configuration across the landscape. We compare protected lands patches between two adjacent ecoregions, the public lands centric Blue Ridge and the private land dominated Piedmont, using estimates of land cover, management practices, and landscape configuration as a proxy for their relative contribution towards the long-term conservation of biodiversity and ecosystem services. We conducted a hotspot analysis to evaluate geographic changes in spatial clustering of protected lands establishment between the years 1985 and 2015. In addition, we evaluated climate resiliency of protected lands patches using metrics developed by Anderson et al. (2016). We found that, compared to public lands, private protected lands contain larger amounts of agriculture than forest, allow for more utilitarian use than public lands, and are less resilient to climatic change. Furthermore, although total area of private protected lands increased since 1985, they are smaller and more disconnected, contributing less to overall connectivity of the protected lands network. To improve upon past efforts, we must improve management accounting and practice and prioritize land for protection that improves coverage, network connectivity, and climate resilience. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: On the basis of multitaxon biogeographical processes related to region‐specific geohistory and palaeoclimate, we identified a balanced and area‐effective protected area network (PAN) expansion in the East Asian islands, a global biodiversity hotspot. Location: Japanese archipelago, Ryukyu archipelago and Izu‐Bonin oceanic islands. Methods: We modelled the distributions of 6,325 species (amphibians, birds, freshwater fish, mammals, plants and reptiles) using 4,389,489 occurrence data points. We then applied the Zonation software for spatial conservation prioritization. First, we identified environmental drivers underpinning taxon‐specific biodiversity patterns. Second, we analysed each taxon individually to understand baseline priority patterns. Third, we combined all taxa into an inclusive analysis to identify the most important PAN expansions. Results: Biodiversity patterns were well explained by geographical factors (climate, habitat stability, isolation and area), but their explanatory power differed between the taxa. There was remarkably little overlap between priority areas for the individual higher taxa. The inclusive prioritization analysis across all taxa identified priority regions, in particular in southern subtropical and mountainous areas. Expanding the PAN up to 17% would cover most of the ranges for rare and/or restricted‐range species. On average, approximately 30% of the ranges of all species could be covered by the 17% expansion identified here. Main conclusions: Our analyses identified top candidates for the expansion of Japan's protected area network. Taxon‐specific prioritization was informative for understanding the conservation priority patterns of different taxa associated with unique biogeographical processes. For the basis of PAN expansion, we recommend multi‐taxon prioritization as an area‐efficient compromise that reflects taxon‐specific priority patterns. Spatial prioritization across multiple taxa provides a promising start for the development of conservation plans with the aim of long‐term persistence of biodiversity on the East Asian islands. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Identifying priority areas for biodiversity conservation is particularly challenging in the marine environment due to the open and dynamic nature of the ocean, the paucity of information on species distribution, and the necessary balance between marine biodiversity conservation and essential supporting services such as seafood provision. We used the Patagonian seabird breeding community as a case study to propose an integrated and adaptive method for delimiting key marine areas for conservation. Priority areas were defined through a free decision‐support tool (Marxan) that included projected at‐sea distributions of seabirds (approximately 2,225,000 individuals of 14 species); BirdLife Important Bird and Biodiversity Areas (IBAs) for pelagic bird species; and the economic costs of potential regulations in fishing practices. The proposed reserve network encompassed approximately 300,000 km2 that was largely concentrated in northern and southern inshore and northern and central offshore regions. This reserve network exceeded the minimum threshold of 20% conservation of the abundance of each species proposed by the World Parks Congress. Based on marine currents in the study area, we further identified the 3 primary water masses that may influence areas of conservation priority through water inflow. Our reserve network may benefit from enhanced marine productivity in these highly connected areas, but they may be threatened by human impacts such as marine pollution. Our method of reserve network design is an important advance with respect to the more classical approaches based on criteria defined for one or a few species and may be particularly useful when information on spatial patterns is data deficient. Our approach also accommodates addition of new information on seabird distribution and population dynamics, human activities, and alterations in the marine environment. Article Impact Statement: Seabird conservation areas can be identified based on distribution of oceanographic features, human impacts, and seabirds at sea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The selection of reserves for biodiversity conservation involves the evaluation of multiple criteria, ranging from representativeness of ecological features to anthropogenic interests and spatial configuration. Among the principal spatial attributes to be considered, connectivity has received particular emphasis in response to the escalating threat of habitat loss and fragmentation. Connectivity is an intrinsic property of networks. Consequently, we have observed the gradual development of the concept of reserve networks, enlisting also tools from the mathematical branch of network theory. Here, we first outline three key aspects of reserve selection for connectivity conservation based on network analysis. 1) It may be based on the application of topological indices, which take into consideration only the geographical position of the habitat patches, or area-weighted indices, which add a premium to larger patches. 2) It may be done through single-node analysis, where the relative importance of patches is evaluated individually, or with the more efficient multi-node analysis, where we search for the optimal group of patches that best complement each other in the role of maintaining connectivity. 3) The goal of the selection may be to avoid fragmentation of the population into isolated portions, or to ensure that reachability is maintained to all habitat patches, including peripheral sites. In previous studies, we had introduced multi-node analysis to the prioritization of reserves, using fragmentation and reachability indices, but these were limited to topology only. Here, we present an improved approach where multi-node prioritization is performed with area-weighted fragmentation. We apply it to 20 bird species in Catalonia, Spain. In comparison with single-node and/or topological fragmentation, we observed here a decentralization of the selected reserve sets: they included not only the main core population, but also secondary clusters of well-connected habitat. This may potentially bring two added advantages to the reserve network: spreading of risk, and inclusion of a wider variety of local genetic profiles. We propose combining this approach with topological reachability, to account for peripheral populations and maximize accessibility to the entire network. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Populations of Canada Warbler (Cardellina canadensis) are declining in Canada’s Atlantic Northern Forest. Land conservancies and government agencies are interested in identifying areas to protect populations, while some timber companies wish to manage forests to minimize impacts on Canada Warbler and potentially create future habitat. We developed seven conservation planning scenarios using Zonation software to prioritize candidate areas for permanent land conservation (4 scenarios) or responsible forest management (minimizing species removal during forest harvesting while promoting colonization of regenerated forest; 3 scenarios). Factors used to prioritize areas included Canada Warbler population density, connectivity to protected areas, future climate suitability, anthropogenic disturbance, and recent Canada Warbler observations. We analyzed each scenario for three estimates of natal dispersal distance (5, 10, and 50 km). We found that scenarios assuming large dispersal distances prioritized a few large hotspots, while low dispersal distance scenarios prioritized smaller, broadly distributed areas. For all scenarios, efficiency (proportion of current Canada Warbler population retained per unit area) declined with higher dispersal distance estimates and inclusion of climate change effects in the scenario. Using low dispersal distance scenarios in decision-making offers a more conservative approach to maintaining this species at risk. Given the differences among the scenarios, we encourage conservation planners to evaluate the reliability of dispersal estimates, the influence of habitat connectivity, and future climate suitability when prioritizing areas for conservation.

ABSTRACT: The umbrella species concept, wherein multiple species are indirectly protected under the umbrella of a reserve created for one, is intended to enhance conservation efficiency. Although appealing in theory and common in practice, empirical tests of the concept have been scarce. We used a real‐world, semi‐protected reserve established to protect a high‐profile umbrella species (greater sage‐grouse [Centrocercus urophasianus]) to investigate 2 potential mechanisms underlying the concept's successful application: reserve size and species similarity. We estimated how much habitat protection the established reserve provided to 52 species of conservation concern associated with vegetation communities where greater sage‐grouse occur. To illustrate the importance of reserve size, we compared the effectiveness of the established reserve to alternative greater sage‐grouse reserves of various sizes and to simulated reserves of equal size but sited with no regard for greater sage‐grouse. We further assessed whether key species’ traits were associated with different levels of protection under the umbrella reserve. The established umbrella reserve protected 82% of the state's greater sage‐grouse population and 0–63% of the habitat of the background species examined. The reserve outperformed equally sized, simulated reserves for only 12 of 52 background species. As expected, larger alternative reserves served as better umbrellas, but regardless of reserve size, not all species received equal protection. The established reserve was most effective at protecting the habitat of species that were most similar to the umbrella species (i.e., avian species, those highly associated with sagebrush plant communities, and those with widespread habitat). In contrast, the habitat of species with restricted distributions, particularly when combined with vegetation associations not closely matching the umbrella species, was not protected as well by the umbrella reserve. Such species require additional, targeted attention to achieve conservation objectives. Successful application of the umbrella species concept requires careful consideration of the characteristics of the umbrella species, the reserve delineated on its behalf, and the similarity of the umbrella species to its purported background species. © 2018 The Wildlife Society. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: For conservation decision making, species’ geographic distributions are mapped using various approaches. Some such efforts have downscaled versions of coarse‐resolution extent‐of‐occurrence maps to fine resolutions for conservation planning. We examined the quality of the extent‐of‐occurrence maps as range summaries and the utility of refining those maps into fine‐resolution distributional hypotheses. Extent‐of‐occurrence maps tend to be overly simple, omit many known and well‐documented populations, and likely frequently include many areas not holding populations. Refinement steps involve typological assumptions about habitat preferences and elevational ranges of species, which can introduce substantial error in estimates of species’ true areas of distribution. However, no model‐evaluation steps are taken to assess the predictive ability of these models, so model inaccuracies are not noticed. Whereas range summaries derived by these methods may be useful in coarse‐grained, global‐extent studies, their continued use in on‐the‐ground conservation applications at fine spatial resolutions is not advisable in light of reliance on assumptions, lack of real spatial resolution, and lack of testing. In contrast, data‐driven techniques that integrate primary data on biodiversity occurrence with remotely sensed data that summarize environmental dimensions (i.e., ecological niche modeling or species distribution modeling) offer data‐driven solutions based on a minimum of assumptions that can be evaluated and validated quantitatively to offer a well‐founded, widely accepted method for summarizing species’ distributional patterns for conservation applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Areas hosting hotspots of low‐latitude marginal populations of cold‐adapted plant species could be key areas for understanding geographical attributes that result in refugia during climatic shifts as well as the conservation of genetic diversity in the face of climate change. Low‐latitude populations of cold‐adapted plants are important because they may harbour the combination of alleles that foster persistence in a warmer climate. Consequently, identification of areas where arctic‐alpine, circumpolar and circumboreal species reach the low‐latitude ends of their distribution will present a unique opportunity to uncover processes that shaped current biogeographical patterns, as well as prepare for future scenarios. Here, we identify 35 main marginal population hotspots (19 and 16 areas in North America and Europe, respectively) of 183 plant taxa. These hotspots represent areas where southern marginal populations of cold‐adapted species co‐occur. The identification of hotspots was based on geographic overlap of southernmost locations of the target species, in a 50 × 50 km grid. With a threshold of two species in a single grid cell or in two contiguous cells, the analysis revealed that hotspots are in most cases located in the southern portion of major mountain chains. However, hotspots also occur in lowland areas at high latitudes (Fennoscandia, Alaska, Hudson Bay) which do not necessarily correspond to known cold‐ or warm‐stage refugia (e.g. Alps). Rockies and Sierra Nevada both in California and Spain, Apennines, and the southern Scandes, maintain their hotspot status even with more stringent cut‐off thresholds (>3 and >5 species per cell group). From a conservation point of view, our analysis reveals that only a small portion of the hotspots are currently included within protected areas. We discuss the importance of marginal population hotspots to future research on climate change and, finally, outline how conservation strategies can capitalize on the knowledge gained from studying climate change effects on cold‐adapted plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Establishing protected areas has long been an effective conservation strategy and is often based on readily surveyed species. The potential of any freshwater taxa to be a surrogate for other aquatic groups has not been explored fully. We compiled occurrence data on 72 species of freshwater fishes, amphibians, mussels, and aquatic reptiles for the Great Plains, Wyoming (U.S.A.). We used hierarchical Bayesian multispecies mixture models and MaxEnt models to describe species' distributions and the program Zonation to identify areas of conservation priority for each aquatic group. The landscape-scale factors that best characterized aquatic species' distributions differed among groups. There was low agreement and congruence among taxa-specific conservation priorities (<20%), meaning no surrogate priority areas would include or protect the best habitats of other aquatic taxa. Common, wideranging aquatic species were included in taxa-specific priority areas, but rare freshwater species were not included. Thus, the development of conservation priorities based on a single freshwater aquatic group would not protect all species in the other aquatic groups. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Environmental heterogeneity is increasingly being used to select conservation areas that will provide for future biodiversity under a variety of climate scenarios. This approach, termed conserving nature's stage (CNS), assumes environmental features respond to climate change more slowly than biological communities, but will CNS be effective if the stage were to change as rapidly as the climate? We tested the effectiveness of using CNS to select sites in salt marshes for conservation in coastal Georgia (U.S.A.), where environmental features will change rapidly as sea level rises. We calculated species diversity based on distributions of 7 bird species with a variety of niches in Georgia salt marshes. Environmental heterogeneity was assessed across six landscape gradients (e.g., elevation, salinity, and patch area). We used 2 approaches to select sites with high environmental heterogeneity: site complementarity (environmental diversity [ED]) and local environmental heterogeneity (environmental richness [ER]). Sites selected based on ER predicted present-day species diversity better than randomly selected sites (up to an 8.1% improvement), were resilient to areal loss from SLR (1.0% average areal loss by 2050 compared with 0.9% loss of randomly selected sites), and provided habitat to a threatened species (0.63 average occupancy compared with 0.6 average occupancy of randomly selected sites). Sites selected based on ED predicted species diversity no better or worse than random and were not resilient to SLR (2.9% average areal loss by 2050). Despite the discrepancy between the 2 approaches, CNS is a viable strategy for conservation site selection in salt marshes because the ER approach was successful. It has potential for application in other coastal areas where SLR will affect environmental features, but its performance may depend on the magnitude of geological changes caused by SLR. Our results indicate that conservation planners that had heretofore excluded low-lying coasts from CNS planning could include coastal ecosystems in regional conservation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Natural habitats continue to dwindle due to a variety of natural and human-induced stressors. In response, sufficient land must be set aside for conservation to preserve long-term biodiversity. In this paper, we propose a bi-objective optimization model to form spatially cohesive nature reserves by minimizing the distance from habitat patches to the center of their reserve, while simultaneously maximizing the ecological condition of the patches set aside for preservation. Our model can accommodate multiple reserves which, combined with a minimum separation distance requirement, enforces backup coverage to mitigate the possible effects of natural and anthropogenic stressors. The model fully capitalizes on GIS functionalities to extract information on spatial relationships and visualize optimization results. Given the complexity of the separation constraint, we propose a genetic algorithm (GA) and a two-phase heuristic where the GA solves the selection of the reserves, while a solver attempts to optimize the allocation of patches to the selected reserves. The behavior of our model and its sensitivity to the parameters are illustrated on a simulated data set, while its real-world problem-solving capabilities are demonstrated on a case study in New Hampshire. Our model provides an alternative modeling tool for conservation planning, particularly when backup reserves are desired. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The scale of investigation for disturbance-influenced processes plays a critical role in theoretical assumptions about stability, variance, and equilibrium, as well as conservation reserve and long-term monitoring program design. Critical consideration of scale is required for robust planning designs, especially when anticipating future disturbances whose exact locations are unknown. This research quantified disturbance proportion and pattern (as contagion) at multiple scales across North America. This pattern of scale-associated variability can guide selection of study and management extents, for example, to minimize variance (measured as standard deviation) between any landscapes within an ecoregion. We identified the proportion and pattern of forest disturbance (30 m grain size) across multiple landscape extents up to 180 km. We explored the variance in proportion of disturbed area and the pattern of that disturbance between landscapes (within an ecoregion) as a function of the landscape extent. In many ecoregions, variance between landscapes within an ecoregion was minimal at broad landscape extents (low standard deviation). Gap-dominated regions showed the least variance, while fire-dominated showed the largest. Intensively managed ecoregions displayed unique patterns. A majority of the ecoregions showed low variance between landscapes at some scale, indicating an appropriate extent for incorporating natural regimes and unknown future disturbances was identified. The quantification of the scales of disturbance at the ecoregion level provides guidance for individuals interested in anticipating future disturbances which will occur in unknown spatial locations. Information on the extents required to incorporate disturbance patterns into planning is crucial for that process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatial and temporal distribution of coral assemblages and the processes structuring those patterns is fundamental to managing reef assemblages. Cross-shelf marine systems exhibit pronounced and persistent gradients in environmental conditions; however, these gradients are not always reliable predictors of coral distribution or the degree of stress that corals are experiencing. This study used information from government, industry and scientific datasets spanning 1980⁻2017, to explore temporal trends in coral cover in the geographically complex system of the Dampier Archipelago, northwest Australia. Coral composition at 15 sites surveyed in 2017 was also modelled against environmental and spatial variables (including turbidity, degree heat weeks, wave exposure, and distance to land/mainland/isobath) to assess their relative importance in structuring coral assemblages. High spatial and temporal heterogeneity was observed in coral cover and recovery trajectories, with reefs located an intermediate distance from the shore maintaining high cover over the past 20 years. The abundance of some prominent genera in 2017 (Acropora, Porites, and Turbinaria spp.) decreased with the distance from the mainland, suggesting that inshore processes play an important role in dictating the distribution of these genera. The atypical distributions of these key reef-building corals and spatial heterogeneity of historical recovery trajectories highlight the risks in making assumptions regarding cross-shelf patterns in geographically complex systems.

Canada's boreal forest region is among the most extensive and largely intact ecosystems on earth, but has experienced rapid industrial development in the last half-century. Calls for urgent conservation action have been prompted by the increasing pace of development and declines in biodiversity, including songbirds. To assist conservation decision making, we introduce a framework to facilitate selection of the highest priority areas for a given conservation objective. We varied six key decision points representing possible constraints or a priori conservation factors: (1) prioritization metric (species representation vs. diversity), (2) geographic stratification, (3) degree of anthropogenic disturbance, (4) species' conservation status, (5) species' ecological association, and (6) climate-change and uncertainty discounting. Using the Zonation conservation planning tool, we evaluated landbird conservation priorities across 128 scenarios for 63 passerine species based on current and projected future density predictions. We compared Zonation land rankings across scenarios with respect to consistency, efficiency (additive and proportional conservation value per unit area), and the relative contributions of each of the six factors of interest. We found large differences between solutions depending on constraints and conservation objectives, and relatively low conservation efficiency overall, with the largest gains in overall conservation value observed in areas ranging from 0.31-0.56 of the study region. This reflects the large range of conservation opportunities still present in the Canadian boreal region, and the widely dispersed nature of landbird distributions, which results in high substitutability among similar areas. However, we did find increasing consistency among solutions as multiple constraints were considered. In particular, stratifying solutions geographically resulted in more consistent priorities, although at the expense of efficiency. Other constraints, including climate change, disturbance- and uncertainty-discounting, and the selection and weighting of species, helped to further focus priorities. Although no single scenario can be viewed as prescriptive, we provide a roadmap for prioritizing boreal songbird conservation efforts across multiple conservation objectives.

Systematic conservation planning (SCP) is a rapidly advancing discipline aimed at providing decision support for choices between alternate conservation actions. SCP is often used to inform choices about areas to protect, in order to optimize outcomes for biodiversity while minimizing societal costs. Despite the widespread application of SCP approaches, there is limited understanding of the types of impacts resulting from related projects, and when and where it is most effective. This is compounded by the absence of a standardized approach to evaluating and reporting on the outcomes of SCP projects. We highlight the challenges of undertaking evaluations of complex planning processes, the current state of knowledge about the outcomes of SCP projects, and emerging opportunities to improve evaluation. There is a need for clarity around theories of change, definitions of SCP and impact, and standardized reporting and information sharing across the discipline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conservation of freshwater ecosystems has lagged behind that of marine and terrestrial ecosystems and often requires the integration of large-scale approaches and transboundary considerations. This study aims to set the foundations of a spatial conservation strategy by identifying the most important catchments for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity in Europe., Using data on 1296 species of fish, mollusc, odonate and aquatic plant, and the key biodiversity area criteria (species Red List status, range restriction and uniqueness of species assemblages), we identified a network of Critical Catchments for the conservation of freshwater biodiversity. Applying spatial prioritisation, we show how the prioritised network differs from the ideal case of protecting all Critical Catchments and how it changes when protected areas are included, and we also identify gaps between the prioritised network and existing protected areas., Critical Catchments ( n = 8423) covered 45% of the area of Europe, with 766 qualifying ('trigger') species located primarily in southern Europe. The prioritised network, limited to 17% of the area of Europe, comprised 3492 catchments mostly in southern and eastern Europe and species targets were met for at least 96% of the trigger species., We found the majority of Critical Catchments to be inadequately covered by protected areas. However, our prioritised network presents a possible solution to augment protected areas to meet policy targets while also achieving good species coverage., Policy implications. While Critical Catchments cover almost half of Europe, priority catchments are mostly in southern and eastern Europe where the current level of protection is not sufficient. This study presents a foundation for a Europe-wide systematic conservation plan to ensure the persistence of freshwater biodiversity. Our study provides a powerful new tool for optimising investment on the conservation of freshwater biodiversity and for meeting targets set forth in international biodiversity policies, conventions and strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The use of systematic area-selection procedures to design protected areas can help optimize conservation actions. However, this process has rarely been used to identify high-risk mortality areas to protect wildlife from human impacts. Electrocution on power lines is one the most important human-related causes of bird mortality worldwide, especially for raptors. Identifying and correcting dangerous individual pylons can significantly reduce the number of electrocution victims, but applying this procedure at a large spatial scale is impractical. In this paper we describe a new selection process that allows for identification of high-risk mortality areas at large scales, combining spatial electrocution risk models with maps of species sensitivity to such an impact. We used the Valencia Region (eastern Spain) as our study system. The risk prediction map was built using bird electrocution records on 1 km × 1 km grids from 2000 to 2009 and the species sensitivity map was built using data on presence and use of four raptor species. The combination of both maps was compared to the distribution of Special Protected Areas and validated by local experts to identify prediction errors or gaps. The final proposal of high priority areas to protect birds from electrocution covered 16.3% of the Valencia Region. Our work supports the use of predictive models and sensitivity maps in the decision-making process to locate high priority infrastructure-related wildlife protection areas at a large scale. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]