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Context: Global climate is changing rapidly, necessitating timely development of specific, actionable species conservation strategies that incorporate climate-change adaptation. Yet, detailed climate-change adaptation planning is noticeably absent from species management plans. This is problematic for restricted species, which often have greater extinction risk. Aims: Focusing on the restricted and endangered Tarengo leek orchid (Prasophyllum petilum), we aimed to adapt and test a framework for producing strategies for its management under climate change. Methods: We used expert elicitation to estimate the severity of threats and assess potential management actions to mitigate threat impacts. We created a conceptual model detailing ecology, threats and likely impacts of climate change on the species, including the interactions between components. Key results: Although climate change-related threats will affect the species, the most severe threats were non-climate threats including grazing, weeds, and habitat degradation. Fire management was deemed highly beneficial but had low feasibility for some populations. Without management, experts estimated up to a 100% decrease in one P. petilum population, and up to 50% decrease if management remained unchanged. Conclusions: Management actions with the highest benefit and feasibility addressed the non-climate threats, which, in turn, can give the species the best opportunity to withstand climate-change impacts. Experts highlighted the difficulty of addressing climate threats with such limited knowledge; therefore, further research was recommended. Implications: This adapted framework enabled a structured analysis of threats, and informed selection of priority adaptation options. We recommend its use for other restricted species for efficient and robust decision-making in climate-change management. Climate change is posing a significant extinction risk to rare and restricted species. Following consultation with species' experts, managers of the Tarengo leek orchid (Prasophyllum petilum) should address the region- or population-specific non-climate threats to increase its resilience to climate change. We present an adapted framework for incorporating climate-change adaptation into management, a critical tool for quantifying the severity of threats and assessing management actions for restricted species with highly specialised requirements. Photograph by Erika Roper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, hundreds of mammal species face the threat of extinction in the coming decades, and in many cases, their ecology remains poorly understood. Fundamental ecological knowledge is crucial for effective conservation management of these species, but it is particularly lacking for small, cryptic mammals. The Julia Creek dunnart (Sminthopsis douglasi), a threatened, cryptic carnivorous marsupial that occurs in scattered populations in the central west of Queensland, Australia, was once so poorly studied that it was believed extinct. Sporadic research since its rediscovery in the early 1990s has revealed that S. douglasi is distributed across land at risk from many threats. Fundamental knowledge of S. douglasi population density is urgently required to inform conservation management at key sites, yet the species has historically proven hard to detect. Indeed, the status of the largest known population of S. douglasi, in Bladensburg National Park, is unknown. Here, we conducted a population study on S. douglasi at two sites within Bladensburg National Park via live mark–recapture surveys during 2022 and 2023. From likelihood‐based spatially explicit capture–recapture (SECR) modelling we provide the first estimates of density and population size for S. douglasi. Live trapping resulted in captures of 49 individual S. douglasi (with 83 captures total, including recaptures). We estimated S. douglasi to occur at a density of 0.38 individuals ha−1 (0.25–0.58) at one site and 0.16 individuals ha−1 (0.09–0.27) at another site, with an estimated mean population size in suitable habitat at Bladensburg National Park of 1211 individuals (776–1646). Our S. douglasi density estimates were similar to that reported for other threatened small mammals in Australia. We also found evidence of extreme S. douglasi population fluctuations over time at Bladensburg National Park, which is of concern for its future conservation. Our study has provided the first estimate of density for S. douglasi, a threatened dasyurid species from the Mitchell Grass Downs of central western Queensland, Australia. Our research provides crucial population data to assist the management of this poorly studied species. We demonstrate a method that can be applied to species with low detection probability to ultimately help address the mammal extinction crisis faced by Australia and the rest of the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Budgeting for biodiversity conservation requires realistic estimates of threat abatement costs. However, data on threat management costs are often unavailable or unable to be extrapolated across relevant locations and scales. Conservation expenditure largely occurs without a priori cost estimates of management activities and is not recorded in ways that can inform future budgets or cost‐effective management decisions.We provided transparent, broadly applicable cost models for 18 Threat Abatement Strategies aimed at managing the processes threatening Australia's biodiversity. We defined the actions required to implement each strategy and used a consistent structure to classify costs of labour, travel, consumables and equipment. We drew upon expert knowledge and published literature to parameterise each model, estimating the implementation cost of each strategy across the Australian continent, accounting for spatial variables such as threat presence, terrain, and travel distance.Estimated annualised costs for the threat abatement strategies varied considerably between strategies and across Australia, ranging from $24 to $879,985 per km2 ($0.24–$8880 per ha). On average, labour was the largest cost component (49%), followed by consumables (37%), travel (13%) and equipment (2%). Based on national scale variables and assumptions, cost estimates across Australia for each threat abatement strategy ranged from +44% and −33% of the most common cost estimate.Policy implications. We provide a consistent and transparent approach to budgeting for threat abatement strategies, aiming to improve conservation planning processes, outcomes, and reporting across Australia. In addition, understanding the budget required to achieve threat management outcomes can aid revenue‐raising and target setting. The models, cost layers and estimates we generate provide the basis for a nationally consistent approach for estimating and recording the cost of biodiversity management strategies, which should be continually updated and improved with local‐scale information over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Rapid climate change is impacting biodiversity, ecosystem function, and human well‐being. Though the magnitude and trajectory of climate change are becoming clearer, our understanding of how these changes reshape terrestrial life zones—distinct biogeographic units characterized by biotemperature, precipitation, and aridity representing broad‐scale ecosystem types—is limited. To address this gap, we used high‐resolution historical climatologies and climate projections to determine the global distribution of historical (1901–1920), contemporary (1979–2013), and future (2061–2080) life zones. Comparing the historical and contemporary distributions shows that changes from one life zone to another during the 20th century impacted 27 million km2 (18.3% of land), with consequences for social and ecological systems. Such changes took place in all biomes, most notably in Boreal Forests, Temperate Coniferous Forests, and Tropical Coniferous Forests. Comparing the contemporary and future life zone distributions shows the pace of life zone changes accelerating rapidly in the 21st century. By 2070, such changes would impact an additional 62 million km2 (42.6% of land) under "business‐as‐usual" (RCP8.5) emissions scenarios. Accelerated rates of change are observed in hundreds of ecoregions across all biomes except Tropical Coniferous Forests. While only 30 ecoregions (3.5%) had over half of their areas change to a different life zone during the 20th century, by 2070 this number is projected to climb to 111 ecoregions (13.1%) under RCP4.5 and 281 ecoregions (33.2%) under RCP8.5. We identified weak correlations between life zone change and threatened vertebrate richness, levels of vertebrate endemism, cropland extent, and human population densities within ecoregions, illustrating the ubiquitous risks of life zone changes to diverse social–ecological systems. The accelerated pace of life zone changes will increasingly challenge adaptive conservation and sustainable development strategies that incorrectly assume current ecological patterns and livelihood provisioning systems will persist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Proponents of development projects (e.g., new roads, mines, dams) are frequently required to assess and manage their impacts on threatened biodiversity. Here, we propose that the environmental legislation and standards that mandate such assessments are failing those threatened species and ecological communities listed as vulnerable. Using a case study of Australia's key environmental legislation, we highlight that vulnerable ecological communities receive no statutory protection, while vulnerable species are held to a less stringent standard in the impact assessment process compared with those that are endangered or critically endangered. In the 19 years since Australia's Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 was enacted, four times as many vulnerable species have declined in their threat status than have improved. Beyond Australia, we demonstrate the global relevance of this issue, as it applies to internationally recognized best practice impact assessment guidelines. These cases provide a cautionary tale: without greater attention and stricter assessment criteria in the impact assessment process, the vulnerable species of today risk becoming the endangered species of tomorrow, with all the attendant costs and missed opportunities for recovery that this implies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]