1. Rapid Evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) in intensive care: Development and validation of a prognostic tool for in-hospital mortality
- Author
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Plecko, D, Bennett, N, Martensson, J, Dam, TA, Entjes, R, Rettig, TCD, Dongelmans, DA, Boelens, AD, Rigter, S, Hendriks, SHA, de Jong, R, Kamps, MJA, Peters, M, Karakus, A, Gommers, D, Ramnarain, D, Wils, E-J, Achterberg, S, Nowitzky, R, Tempel, W, de Jager, CPC, Nooteboom, FGCA, Oostdijk, E, Koetsier, P, Cornet, AD, Reidinga, AC, de Ruijter, W, Bosman, RJ, Frenzel, T, Urlings-Strop, LC, de Jong, P, Smit, EGM, Cremer, OL, Mehagnoul-Schipper, DJ, Faber, HJ, Lens, J, Brunnekreef, GB, Festen-Spanjer, B, Dormans, T, de Bruin, DP, Lalisang, RCA, Vonk, SJJ, Haan, ME, Fleuren, LM, Thoral, PJ, Elbers, PWG, Bellomo, R, Plecko, D, Bennett, N, Martensson, J, Dam, TA, Entjes, R, Rettig, TCD, Dongelmans, DA, Boelens, AD, Rigter, S, Hendriks, SHA, de Jong, R, Kamps, MJA, Peters, M, Karakus, A, Gommers, D, Ramnarain, D, Wils, E-J, Achterberg, S, Nowitzky, R, Tempel, W, de Jager, CPC, Nooteboom, FGCA, Oostdijk, E, Koetsier, P, Cornet, AD, Reidinga, AC, de Ruijter, W, Bosman, RJ, Frenzel, T, Urlings-Strop, LC, de Jong, P, Smit, EGM, Cremer, OL, Mehagnoul-Schipper, DJ, Faber, HJ, Lens, J, Brunnekreef, GB, Festen-Spanjer, B, Dormans, T, de Bruin, DP, Lalisang, RCA, Vonk, SJJ, Haan, ME, Fleuren, LM, Thoral, PJ, Elbers, PWG, and Bellomo, R
- Abstract
BACKGROUND: The prediction of in-hospital mortality for ICU patients with COVID-19 is fundamental to treatment and resource allocation. The main purpose was to develop an easily implemented score for such prediction. METHODS: This was an observational, multicenter, development, and validation study on a national critical care dataset of COVID-19 patients. A systematic literature review was performed to determine variables possibly important for COVID-19 mortality prediction. Using a logistic multivariable model with a LASSO penalty, we developed the Rapid Evaluation of Coronavirus Illness Severity (RECOILS) score and compared its performance against published scores. RESULTS: Our development (validation) cohort consisted of 1480 (937) adult patients from 14 (11) Dutch ICUs admitted between March 2020 and April 2021. Median age was 65 (65) years, 31% (26%) died in hospital, 74% (72%) were males, average length of ICU stay was 7.83 (10.25) days and average length of hospital stay was 15.90 (19.92) days. Age, platelets, PaO2/FiO2 ratio, pH, blood urea nitrogen, temperature, PaCO2, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score measured within +/-24 h of ICU admission were used to develop the score. The AUROC of RECOILS score was 0.75 (CI 0.71-0.78) which was higher than that of any previously reported predictive scores (0.68 [CI 0.64-0.71], 0.61 [CI 0.58-0.66], 0.67 [CI 0.63-0.70], 0.70 [CI 0.67-0.74] for ISARIC 4C Mortality Score, SOFA, SAPS-III, and age, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Using a large dataset from multiple Dutch ICUs, we developed a predictive score for mortality of COVID-19 patients admitted to ICU, which outperformed other predictive scores reported so far.
- Published
- 2021