1. Quantile-based individual risk measures for rockfall-prone areas
- Author
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Nicolas Eckert, Christophe Corona, Manon Farvacque, Jérôme Lopez-Saez, Franck Bourrier, David Toe, Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire de Géographie Physique et Environnementale (GEOLAB), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA)-Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (IR SHS UNILIM), Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Environmental Sciences [Geneva] (ISE), University of Geneva [Switzerland], Laboratoire des EcoSystèmes et des Sociétés en Montagne (UR LESSEM), Rhone-Alpes region (ARC Environnement 3), C2ROP (Chutes de blocs, Risques Rocheux, Ouvrages de Protection) national research project, Irstea ZORRINO (Zonage reglementaire du risque en montagne par optimisation des pertes) project, ANR-15-IDEX-0002,UGA,IDEX UGA(2015), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société (IR SHS UNILIM), Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Université de Limoges (UNILIM)-Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] (UCA [2017-2020])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), and Université de Genève = University of Geneva (UNIGE)
- Subjects
010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,Quantitative risk analysis ,Computer science ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,Expected shortfall ,01 natural sciences ,Rockfall ,Value-at-risk ,[SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques ,Risk management ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences ,021110 strategic, defence & security studies ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,business.industry ,Individual risk ,Risk measure ,Geology ,Building and Construction ,Geotechnical Engineering and Engineering Geology ,Risk analysis (engineering) ,13. Climate action ,[SDE]Environmental Sciences ,Damages ,Zoning ,business ,Risk assessment ,Safety Research ,Value at risk - Abstract
International audience; In mountain environments, precise rockfall risk evaluation is crucial to reduce death tolls and costs. However, to date, existing rockfall risk assessment procedures remain scarce, as they focus only on existing elements at risk and with the damage expectation as sole risk measure. Here, we propose an approach to evaluate the distribution of damages on an individual basis as a continuous function of space. Furthermore, rockfall risk is evaluated through (i) the damage expectation and based on (ii) the value-at-risk (VAR) and (iii) the expected shortfall (ES). VaR and ES risk measures allow better assessing the risk due to extreme events and accounting for various shortterm/long-term constraints faced by stakeholders. This procedure is applied to Le Brocey slope (municipality of Crolles, French Alps), frequently affected by rockfall events, illustrating its potential for land-use planning. Notably, obtained individual risk values can be confronted with acceptability thresholds to perform legal zoning on sound basis. Also, they allow comparison of risk management strategies as function of different behaviors towards risk, budgetary constraints and/or temporal horizons. Hence, the approach provides valuable tools for future land-use planning and decision-making. It could easily be transferred to other hazards as a wider contribution to the determination of the best balance between safety and sustainability.
- Published
- 2021
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