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This empirical research study endeavors to elevate our understanding of the interrelationship of several aspects of economic dynamism at the state level in the United States. We investigate the factors influencing geographic mobility, i.e., both net in-migration and gross in-migration patterns, by simultaneously focusing on two hypotheses using state-level panel data covering the period 2005-2017, as well as Pre-Great Recession and Post-Great Recession sub-periods thereof. These two hypotheses are as follows: the pattern of geographic mobility is positively impacted by a business climate that is (a) friendly to the pursuit of entrepreneurship per se on the one hand and (b) migrants are attracted to environments having greater labor market freedom on the other hand. This paper reveals that these two hypotheses receive simultaneous empirical support (i.e., they are not incompatible with one another).

We investigate the impact of federal budget deficits and other factors on the ex-post and ex-ante real yields on high-grade municipal bonds. The estimation results reveal that both yields increase with the real yield on 30-year Moody’s Aaa-rated bonds and provisions in the Community Reinvestment Act but decrease with net capital inflows, the real GDP growth rate, and the average effective federal income tax rate. Most importantly, both yields are increasing functions of the federal budget deficit. These results support limiting the size of federal budget deficits to avoid the excessive crowding out of private investment spending.

We are the first to empirically analyze whether the "Guidance on Accessing Capital for Minority, Underserved, Veteran and Women-Owned Business Concerns" (Guidance) program was successful. The program was implemented to promote the Paycheck Protection Program (PPP) loans provided by Minority Depository Institutions (MDIs) in the second round compared to the first round of PPP. Using both loan-level data from the Small Business Administration (SBA) and balance-sheet-level data from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), we obtain compelling empirical evidence indicating that MDIs issued relatively more PPP loans (scaled by institution assets) than non-MDIs in the second round. This finding is evidence that the goal of dedicated access for MDIs under the Guidance program was successful. It also enhances the understanding of the PPP lending program and the impact of the Federal Reserve PPP Liquidity Facility (PPPLF) in terms of the role played by MDIs.

This study uses Bureau of Economic Analysis data on state-level productivity levels and growth rates over the period 1977–2019. We find that states with relatively high productivity tend to experience somewhat lower productivity growth over time, whereas states with relatively lower productivity experience somewhat higher productivity growth over time. We find compelling evidence for significant contributions from education (in the form of a college degree) as well as the role played by higher growth rates in the state-level Hispanic population as factors contributing to increased productivity. Worker/labour productivity constitutes a good indicator of changes to wages and living standards. Empirically examining interstate differences in state-level worker productivity growth across different time intervals helps to identify factors that influence geographical differentials in productivity as well as aids in the identification of the specific factors that determine rates of productivity growth and decline.

ABSTRACTThis study provides new insight into factors that influence the poverty rate by testing the following hypothesis: the percentage of the population in poverty is positively related to rent levels. Rent levels constitute an issue effectively overlooked in the poverty determinants literature. The present study estimates a panel data set inclusive of control variables for the US state of Virginia, which provided all the data needed for the analysis. Panel least squares (PLS) estimations using county fixed effects and period fixed effects for the period 2008–17 find poverty inversely related to median income and the percentage of the population with at least a high-school diploma. Poverty also is found to be positively related to the percentage of the population employed in mining; the percentage of the population classified as obese; and the unemployment rate. Finally, poverty in Virginia is, as hypothesized here, an increasing function of rent. Higher monthly rental levels on one-bedroom apartments increase the percentage of the population in poverty; indeed, a US$100 per month increase in rent would elevate the overall poverty rate in the state by 1.20–1.35%.

Given the importance to businesses of having a better understanding of factors that influence migration, this study argues that there are two dimensions of the quality of life and economic opportunities that have largely been ignored in previously published studies of migration patterns in the U.S.: the impacts of (1) the costs of commuting between one’s residence and one’s place of employment and (2) apartment rent-levels and single-family housing price levels. It is hypothesized here that the greater the commute time between one’s prospective place of residence and one’s prospective place of employment, the greater the costs associated with in-migration to that potential residence in terms not only of the value of time expended round-trip in commuting but also the opportunity costs and mental health costs (stress) of that time along with the greater pecuniary costs that accompany longer commutes. Therefore, it is hypothesized that in-migration to an area is a decreasing function of commute time associated with that area. A second hypothesis proffered here is that greater housing-cost levels reduce disposable real income and hence utility. More specifically, we argue that either higher apartment rent levels or higher prices on single family homes reduce disposable real income and thereby reduce household well-being; hence, in-migration to an area is hypothesized to be a decreasing function of those higher rent levels and higher home prices. Based upon panel 2SLS estimates, where net in-migration and gross in-migration over the 2010-2017 period are separately considered, there is strong initial empirical support for both hypotheses.

This study utilizes logistic regression to identify annual financial statement and performance ratio factors that influenced the failure rate of U.S. small banks before and after the Financial Crisis identified during December 2007 through June, 2009. The study includes rates of small bank failure before and Financial Crisis spanning the years 2001 through 2014. The aim of the paper is to describe in large increase in U.S. small bank failure after the Financial Crisis. The Financial Crisis created drastic sustained changes of the financial system that were designed for large financial institutions. These changes may have created undue hardship for small banks and elevated the rate of small bank failures in the post-Financial Crisis period. Post-Financial Crisis bank failures had lower capital ratios and increased loan portfolio risk relative to the prior period. The combined effect of expansionist monetary policy, increased regulatory costs, and possession of illiquid real estate assets contributed to the higher rate of failure. The identification of factors that contribute to the increase in small bank failures after the Financial Crisis should assist bank managers, policy analysts, and scholars in developing alternative solutions for the future.

Effectively no scholarly research has been published in peer-reviewed journals on the potential migration impacts of environments that are more conducive to entrepreneurship. Similarly, the potential migration impact of personal freedom also is essentially ignored in the literature. This study seeks to add to the literature by investigating the impacts of both entrepreneurial activity and personal freedom on state in-migration patterns. Using a panel dataset for the post-Great Recession period 2010-2017, the empirical analysis reveals that all three of the Kauffman indices of entrepreneurial activity are found to exercise a positive and statistically significant impact on both net in-migration and gross in-migration. In addition, the index of overall personal freedom is found to exercise a positive and statistically significant impact on both of these in-migration measures. Thus, it appears that there may be good reason for future migration studies to take such variables into account when seeking to explain, understand, and predict migration patterns in the U.S.

The annualized interest rate charged on payday loans can reach 1,950 percent, whereas similar rates charged by banks are typically less than 25 percent. Also, persons borrowing from payday lenders and paying the higher interest rates are disproportionately lower-income Blacks. This provides an incentive for Blacks seeking loans to turn to banks rather than payday lenders. This may be more likely to happen when there are Black-owned banks in communities with greater percentages of Blacks. Indeed, offices of such banks may substitute for payday loan stores, providing a greater opportunity for Blacks to avoid the higher interest rates associated with payday lenders. We hypothesize that to the extent Black-owned banks substitute for payday there is a greater opportunity for lower-income Blacks to substitute/switch firms and thereby seek lower-cost loans. We do find that there are significantly fewer payday loan stores in counties where there are more Black bank offices.

Over the last several years, a body of the scholarly literature has emerged analysing the effects of proximity to coal mines and various human health indicators in the United States. These studies have found evidence of an increased poor health status associated with the production of coal and with close proximity to coal mines. The present study contributes to this literature by analysing the spatial effects of coal production on neighbouring counties within the entire 420-county, 13-state Appalachian Region in terms of increased rates of death attributable to respiratory diseases.

A large empirical literature has found positive effects from economic freedom on economic outcomes, such as output and per capita economic growth. This study seeks to explain empirically the disparate timing of state manufacturing earnings and employment decline, as well as the shift among states in both manufacturing earnings and manufacturing employment resulting from right-to-work laws, which can be viewed as reflecting labor market freedom and thereby acting as a de facto economic policy. The results of the empirical estimations suggest a marked geographic shift of manufacturing employment and compensation in the U.S. during the 1970 to 2012 time period. The empirical estimations indicate that the regions of the country that have historically represented the manufacturing base have suffered the greatest relative losses in both employment and compensation during this period. In addition to regional location, it appears that right-to-work laws have had the effect of leveling manufacturing employment and compensation levels across the states since 1970. The data analysis suggests that, at least in part due to right-to-work laws, the manufacturing sectors of the states and regions are becoming increasingly similar over time, i.e., manufacturing activity that was once highly concentrated in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Mideast has now converged significantly, with the outcome that there is little geographic difference in concentration among the eight BEA regions.

This study empirically investigates the “relative tax gap hypothesis,” which posits that the greater the size of the relative tax gap, the greater the degree to which the U.S. Treasury must borrow from domestic and/or other credit markets and hence the higher the ex ante real interest rate yield on the Bellwether 30 year U.S. Treasury bond. The study uses the most current data available for computing what is referred to here as the “relative tax gap,” which is the ratio of the aggregate tax gap (the loss in federal income tax revenue resulting from personal income tax evasion) to the GDP level. For each year of the study period, the nominal value of the tax gap is scaled by the nominal GDP level and expressed as a percentage. The study period runs from 1982 through 2016, reflecting data availability for all of the variables. The estimation results provide strong support for the hypothesis. In addition, in separate estimations, evidence is provided that the relative tax gap also acts to elevate the ex ante real interest rate yield on Moody’s Baa-rated long-term corporate bonds. It logically follows, then, that to the extent that a greater relative tax gap leads to higher ex ante real interest rates, it may contribute to the crowding out of corporate investment in new plant equipment associated heretofore with government budget deficits per se.

In the present study, we empirically investigate the uncertainty of the effectiveness of recent monetary policies in lowering the real mortgage rate in the U.S. In particular, we have an eye towards determining whether the Fed’s policies have been consistently effective or whether, instead, there is uncertainty regarding whether, when, and to what extent these policies achieve their ostensible goal of lowing the mortgage rate. Based upon empirical estimates of a loanable funds model, it is shown that the consistency of recent monetary policies, as reflected in the ratios of the M2 money supply to GDP and quantitative easing to GDP, has varied considerably between the study periods 1974–2009, 1974–2010, 1974–2011, 1974–2012, 1974–2013, 1974–2014, and 1974–2015, implying that there exists uncertainty regarding how consistent monetary policy effectiveness really is. This monetary policy uncertainty is even more apparent when the periods 1974–2008 and 1974–2016 are considered. Moreover, it is observed that elevated interest rate risk is a collateral effect of recent monetary policies. Interest rate risk seriously endangers the health of the macro-economy and throws future monetary policy effectiveness even further into question and yields further economic uncertainty.

We investigate the impact of federal government budget deficits and federal personal income tax rates on the ex post real interest rate yield on ten-year US Treasury notes. Using autoregressive two-stage least squares estimations for the post-Bretton Woods era, we find that the yield on these Treasury issues has been an increasing function of the federal budget deficit as a percent of GDP, both in the form of the total/unified deficit and the primary deficit, and also an increasing function of the average effective federal personal income tax rate. The estimation reveals that growth in the M2 money supply (relative to GDP) acts to reduce the real interest rate yield on ten-year Treasuries. Consequently, while a growing money supply can help to keep real interest rates on Treasury notes (and hence federal debt service costs) down, policymakers should be sensitive to the fact that both budget deficit increases and tax rate increases can elevate the real interest rate.

The rise of the COVID-19 novel coronavirus led to the postponement, and possible cancellation, of the remainder of the National Basketball Association's (NBA) 2019–20 season. Major League Baseball's (MLB) (2020 season) and the National Football League's (NFL) (2020–21) seasons may be cancelled too. This empirical note estimates the loss of jock tax revenue to US states and the District of Columbia as a result of the potential cancellations of the remainder of the NBA and the entire MLB and NFL seasons, respectively. It finds that US states (along with the District of Columbia) stand to lose a combined nearly US$307 million in jock tax collections if the MLB and NFL seasons are cancelled and the suspended NBA regular season games are not made up due to the COVID-19 crisis. To our knowledge, this study provides the first state-by-state calculation of jock tax collections at the state/non-federal jurisdictional level.

Using annualized data for the 1974–2015 period, this study adopts a loanable funds approach to investigate empirically the impact of U.S. federal government fiscal policy of income tax rate cuts on the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade municipal bonds. Empirical appears to show that the ex ante real interest rate yield on high grade tax free municipal bonds is a decreasing function of the maximum marginal federal personal income tax. Based upon this very preliminary, exploratory study, it follows that reducing federal income tax rates may act to raise the cost of borrowing to cities, counties, and states across the U.S.

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled “Do shareholder coalitions affect agency costs? Evidence from Italian-listed companies”, Research in International Business and Finance, Forthcoming (Rossi et al., 2018) [1]. The study shows an empirical analysis using an extensive balanced panel dataset of 163 Italian listed companies for the period 2002–2013, which is a sample yielding 1956 firm-year observations. The sample consists primarily of manufacturing firms, but also includes some service enterprises. However all financial firms and regulated utilities are excluded. We collected data on ownership structure for the entire study period. Information was acquired from the Consob website and the individual company reports on corporate governance. Data on firm-level indicators (debt-to-capital ratio, firm size, and age of the firm) for all companies in the sample were collected from Datastream, Bloomberg, and Calepino dell’Azionista, as well as obtained manually from the financial statements of the individual companies being studied. Our dataset contains several measures of ownership structure for Italian listed companies. JEL codes: G32, G34, Keywords: Agency theory, Debt, Ownership structure, Multiple blockholders, Family-controlled firms, Generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation

The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between research and development outlays (R&D) and firm ownership structure for the public corporations listed on the Italian stock exchange. There is literature on the impact of corporate governance on firms’ innovation, and specifically on the relation between ownership structures and innovation. However, related empirical research is still in its infancy, with most contributions focused on the USA. Using a sample of 369 firm-year observations over the period 2005-2013, we investigate the relationship between R&D outlays and ownership structure estimating both a the fixed-effects panel model and a dynamic panel data system-GMM model. We consider various indicators of corporate governance, such as ownership concentration, board ownership, and institutional investors. Our findings reveal a negative relationship between R&D outlays and ownership concentration. Furthermore, we find a positive relationship between R&D investments and institutional investors, and a positive relationship between R&D outlays on the one hand and both firm size and firm age on the other hand. Finally, we find a negative relationship between R&D outlays and the debt-to-capital ratio. JEL codes: G32; G34; O32

This empirical study seeks to identify determinants of the underground economy in the U.S. in the form of aggregate federal personal income tax evasion over the period 1975-2008, with a specific focus upon the impact of higher federal income tax rates on tax evasion. In this study, we use the most recent data available on aggregate personal income tax evasion, data that are derived from the General Currency Ratio Model and measured in the form of the ratio of unreported AGI to reported AGI. Most other studies of federal income tax evasion for the U.S. do not use data this current. It is found that the impact of increases in the federal income tax rate on aggregate personal income tax evasion may, on balance, be ambiguous, possibly suggesting that the income effect is negative and outweighs the positive substitution effect for the representative taxpayer. It is also found that the degree of aggregate personal income tax evasion may be an increasing function of the percentage of federal personal income tax returns characterized by itemized deductions and a decreasing function of the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (during the first two years of implementation), the ratio of the tax free interest rate yield on high grade municipals to the interest rate yield on ten year Treasury notes, and higher audit rates of filed federal income tax returns (as a measure of risk from tax evasion) by IRS personnel. Finally, unpopular wars may provide a secondary benefit for and therefore act as an inducement for greater tax evasion.

The objective of this study is to explore the relationship between research and development outlays (R&D) and firm ownership structure for the public corporations listed on the Italian stock exchange. There is literature on the impact of corporate governance on firms’ innovation, and specifically on the relation between ownership structures and innovation. However, related empirical research is still in its infancy, with most contributions focused on the USA. Using a sample of 369 firm-year observations over the period 2005-2013, we investigate the relationship between R&D outlays and ownership structure estimating both a the fixed-effects panel model and a dynamic panel data system-GMM model. We consider various indicators of corporate governance, such as ownership concentration, board ownership, and institutional investors. Our findings reveal a negative relationship between R&D outlays and ownership concentration. Furthermore, we find a positive relationship between R&D investments and institutional investors, and a positive relationship between R&D outlays on the one hand and both firm size and firm age on the other hand. Finally, we find a negative relationship between R&D outlays and the debt-to-capital ratio. JEL codes: G32; G34; O32

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, this study empirically examines, for theUS, the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficitand the ex ante real long term interest rate. The system includes personal federal income tax rates, the M2 money supply, the unemployment rate, an ex ante realshort term interest rate and net international capital inflows. To clarify thedeficit/interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primarydeficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. The ECM estimates in this study provide results that suggest a bi-directional relationship between theprimary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate yield.

This study empirically investigates the impact of improving income-detectiontechnology, as well as a variety of other factors, on aggregate income taxevasion. The study focuses on the U.S., using available data for the 1975-97 period. The empirical findings indicate that improving income-detection technology appears to have significantly reduced the degree of aggregate income-tax evasion in theU.S. over time. In addition, the estimates indicate that federal income tax evasionappears to be an increasing function not only of the federal personal income tax rate but also of the public's dissatisfaction with government. Furthermore, income taxevasion appears to be a decreasing function both of penalties imposed by the IRS on unpaid taxes and IRS audit rates.

This study empirically investigates the impact of improving income-detectiontechnology, as well as a variety of other factors, on aggregate income taxevasion. The study focuses on the U.S., using available data for the 1975-97 period. The empirical findings indicate that improving income-detection technology appears to have significantly reduced the degree of aggregate income-tax evasion in theU.S. over time. In addition, the estimates indicate that federal income tax evasionappears to be an increasing function not only of the federal personal income tax rate but also of the public's dissatisfaction with government. Furthermore, income taxevasion appears to be a decreasing function both of penalties imposed by the IRS on unpaid taxes and IRS audit rates. JEL Codes: H24, H26, H31

Using error-correction model (ECM) estimation, this study empirically examines, for theUS, the causality relationship between the federal government budget deficitand the ex ante real long term interest rate. The system includes personal federal income tax rates, the M2 money supply, the unemployment rate, an ex ante realshort term interest rate and net international capital inflows. To clarify the deficit/interest rate relationship, the budget deficit is measured by the primary deficit, which excludes net interest payments by the Treasury. The ECM estimates in this study provide results that suggest a bi-directional relationship between the primary budget deficit and the ex ante real long term interest rate yield. JEL Codes: E43, H62, E62