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ABSTRACT: Objectives: To determine whether weekly oral supplementation with 10,000 IU vitamin D3 for 3 years reduces the risk of sensitization to M. tuberculosis in South African schoolchildren aged 6-11 years with negative QuantiFERON-tuberculosis (TB) Gold Plus (QFT-Plus) assay results at baseline. Methods: We conducted a phase 3 randomized placebo-controlled trial in 1682 children attending 23 primary schools in Cape Town. The primary outcome was a positive end-trial QFT-Plus result, analyzed using a mixed effects logistic regression model with the school of attendance included as a random effect. Results: 829 vs. 853 QFT-Plus-negative children were randomized to receive vitamin D3 vs. placebo, respectively. Mean end-study 25(OH)D concentrations in participants randomized to vitamin D vs. placebo were 104.3 vs 64.7 nmol/l, respectively (95% confidence interval for difference, 37.6 to 41.9 nmol/l). A total of 76/667 (11.4%) participants allocated to vitamin D vs. 89/687 (13.0%) participants allocated to placebo tested QFT-Plus positive at 3-year follow-up (adjusted odds ratio 0.86, 95% confidence interval 0.62-1.19, P = 0.35). Conclusion: Weekly oral supplementation with 10,000 IU vitamin D3 for 3 years elevated serum 25(OH)D concentrations among QFT-Plus-negative Cape Town schoolchildren but did not reduce their risk of QFT-Plus conversion.

Abstract Background Faecal incontinence (FI) is a substantial health problem with a prevalence of approximately 8% in community-dwelling populations. Sacral neuromodulation (SNM) is considered the first-line surgical treatment option in adults with FI in whom conservative therapies have failed. The clinical efficacy of SNM has never been rigorously determined in a trial setting and the underlying mechanism of action remains unclear. Methods/design The design encompasses a multicentre, randomised, double-blind crossover trial and cohort follow-up study. Ninety participants will be randomised to one of two groups (SNM/SHAM or SHAM/SNM) in an allocation ratio of 1:1. The main inclusion criteria will be adults aged 18–75 years meeting Rome III and ICI definitions of FI, who have failed non-surgical treatments to the UK standard, who have a minimum of eight FI episodes in a 4-week screening period, and who are clinically suitable for SNM. The primary objective is to estimate the clinical efficacy of sub-sensory SNM vs. SHAM at 32 weeks based on the primary outcome of frequency of FI episodes using a 4-week paper diary, using mixed Poisson regression analysis on the intention-to-treat principle. The study is powered (0.9) to detect a 30% reduction in frequency of FI episodes between sub-sensory SNM and SHAM stimulation over a 32-week crossover period. Secondary objectives include: measurement of established and new clinical outcomes after 1 year of therapy using new (2017 published) optimised therapy (with standardised SNM-lead placement); validation of new electronic outcome measures (events) and a device to record them, and identification of potential biological effects of SNM on underlying anorectal afferent neuronal pathophysiology (hypothesis: SNM leads to increased frequency of perceived transient anal sphincter relaxations; improved conscious sensation of defaecatory urge and cortical/subcortical changes in afferent responses to anorectal electrical stimulation (main techniques: high-resolution anorectal manometry and magnetoencephalography). Discussion This trial will determine clinical effect size for sub-sensory chronic electrical stimulation of the sacral innervation. It will provide experimental evidence of modifiable afferent neurophysiology that may aid future patient selection as well as a basic understanding of the pathophysiology of FI. Trial registration International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number: ISRCTN98760715. Registered on 15 September 2017.

Objective To systematically review preoperative and intraoperative Anastomotic Leak Prediction Scores (ALPS) and validation studies to evaluate performance and utility in surgical decision-making. Anastomotic leak (AL) is the most feared complication of colorectal surgery. Individualised leak risk could guide anastomosis and/or diverting stoma.Methods Systematic search of Ovid MEDLINE and Embase databases, 30 October 2020, identified existing ALPS and validation studies. All records including >1 risk factor, used to develop new, or to validate existing models for preoperative or intraoperative use to predict colorectal AL, were selected. Data extraction followed CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies guidelines. Models were assessed for applicability for surgical decision-making and risk of bias using Prediction model Risk Of Bias ASsessment Tool.Results 34 studies were identified containing 31 individual ALPS (12 colonic/colorectal, 19 rectal) and 6 papers with validation studies only. Development dataset patient populations were heterogeneous in terms of numbers, indication for surgery, urgency and stoma inclusion. Heterogeneity precluded meta-analysis. Definitions and timeframe for AL were available in only 22 and 11 ALPS, respectively. 26/31 studies used some form of multivariable logistic regression in their modelling. Models included 3–33 individual predictors. 27/31 studies reported model discrimination performance but just 18/31 reported calibration. 15/31 ALPS were reported with external validation, 9/31 with internal validation alone and 4 published without any validation. 27/31 ALPS and every validation study were scored high risk of bias in model analysis.Conclusions Poor reporting practices and methodological shortcomings limit wider adoption of published ALPS. Several models appear to perform well in discriminating patients at highest AL risk but all raise concerns over risk of bias, and nearly all over wider applicability. Large-scale, precisely reported external validation studies are required.PROSPERO registration number CRD42020164804.

Background: Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) exploring the potential of vitamin D to prevent acute respiratory infections have yielded mixed results. Individual participant data (IPD) meta-analysis has the potential to identify factors that may explain this heterogeneity. Objectives: To assess the overall effect of vitamin D supplementation on the risk of acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and to identify factors modifying this effect. Data sources: MEDLINE, EMBASE, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Web of Science, ClinicalTrials.gov and the International Standard Randomised Controlled Trials Number (ISRCTN) registry. Study selection: Randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trials of supplementation with vitamin D3 or vitamin D2 of any duration having incidence of acute respiratory infection as a prespecified efficacy outcome were selected. Study appraisal: Study quality was assessed using the Cochrane Collaboration Risk of Bias tool to assess sequence generation, allocation concealment, blinding of participants, personnel and outcome assessors, completeness of outcome data, evidence of selective outcome reporting and other potential threats to validity. Results: We identified 25 eligible RCTs (a total of 11,321 participants, aged from 0 to 95 years). IPD were obtained for 10,933 out of 11,321 (96.6%) participants. Vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of ARI among all participants [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 0.88, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 0.96; heterogeneity p