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Climate models robustly project acceleration of the Brewer‐Dobson circulation (BDC) in response to climate change. However, the BDC trends simulated by comprehensive models are poorly constrained by observations, which cannot even determine the sign of potential trends. Additionally, the changing structure of the troposphere and stratosphere has received increasing attention in recent years. The extent to which vertical shifts of the circulation are driving the acceleration is under debate. In this study, we present a novel method that enables the attribution of advective BDC changes to structural changes of the circulation and of the stratosphere itself. Using this method allows studying the advective BDC trends in unprecedented detail and sheds new light into discrepancies between different data sets (reanalyses and models) at the tropopause and in the lower stratosphere. Our findings provide insights into the reliability of model projections of BDC changes and offer new possibilities for observational constraints. Plain Language Summary: The large‐scale interhemispheric meridional overturning circulation in the middle atmosphere determines the composition of this region, including the distribution of radiatively important trace gases. The long‐term change of this circulation is a subject of ongoing debate, and an area of disagreement between models and observations. In our study we present a method that provides an unprecedented insight into the change and disentangles the individual factors behind it. Hence, the method introduces new constraints on the circulation change and can aid the reconciliation between models and observations. Key Points: A method for attributing net upwelling trends to changes in circulation, air density and structure of the upwelling region is establishedModels agree largely on contributions from vertical shifts in pressure surfaces/tropopause and changes in vertical advectionFor reanalyses, on the other hand, the uncertainty is larger, not allowing direct constraints on model trends [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During spring 2020, unprecedented changes in local and regional emissions have occurred around the globe due to governmental restrictions associated with COVID-19. Many European countries including Austria issued partial curfews or stay-at-home order policies, which have impacted ambient air quality through reductions in non-essential transportation and energy consumption of industrial sites and work places. Here, we analyse the effect of these measures on ambient concentrations of nitrogen oxides (NOx), ozone (O3) and particulate matter (PM10) during the first nationwide lockdown in Austria (16.03.2020 to 14.04.2020). To ensure a robust analysis, the Austrian domain is divided into four individual subsectors contingent on regional climate. For air quality analysis a novel method is applied for filtering days with comparable weather conditions during the 2020 lockdown and spring 2017 to 2019. In general, our analysis shows decreasing pollutant concentrations, although in magnitude dependent on pollutant and regional subdomain. Largest reductions are found for NOx reaching up to −68% at traffic sites reflecting the substantial decrease in non-essential transport. Changes in the O3 concentrations at background sites show a rather weak response to NOx declines varying between roughly −18 to +8% for both the median and the upper tail of the distribution. Occasional site level increases in O3 concentrations can be attributed to comparably weak titration during night-time. PM10 concentrations show the smallest response among air pollutants, attributable to manifold precursor sources not affected by the lockdown measures. However, our analysis indicates also a shift of PM10 distributions at traffic sites closer to distributions observed at background sites. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]