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7. The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part I : Overview of the Modeling System, the Forecast Products, and How the Products Are Used

Author

Liu, Yubao, Warner, Thomas T., Bowers, James F., Carson, Laurie P., Chen, Fei, Clough, Charles A., Davis, Christopher A., Egeland, Craig H., Halvorson, Scott F., Huck, Terrence W., Lachapelle, Leo, Malone, Robert E., Rife, Daran L., Sheu, Rong-Shyang, Swerdlin, Scott P., and Weingarten, Dean S.

Published
2008

10. Description of the Probabilistic Wind Atlas Methodology, Deliverable D3.1

Author

Hahmann, Andrea N., Witha, Björn, Rife, Daran L., Frouzakis , Nikolaos, Junk, Constantin, Sile, Tija, Baltscheffsky, Magnus, Dörenkämper, Martin, Ezber, Yasemin, Bustamante, Elena Garcia, Gonzalez-Rouco, Fidel, Mentes, Sibel, Navarro, Jorge, Söderberg, Stefan, and Unal, Yurdanur

Abstract

A new ensemble method is explored for estimating the uncertainty of the wind resource within Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations. The output of the ensemble simulations is processed to create a "map" showing the uncertainty in the wind resource estimate at each geographic location. This new method is demonstrated by performing a collection of 9 different WRF model simulations using combinations of 3 planetary boundary layer schemes, 2simulation re-initialization strategies, and 2 methods for initializing the land surface state. The results of the simulations are validated against data from 10 meteorological masts in South Africa, part of the Wind Atlas of South Africa (WASA) project, where a long-term set of high-quality observations exist. The results of the ensemble simulations are encouraging, but further analysis is needed to quantify their utility. A key disadvantage of the ensemble simulation strategy employedherein, is that some members may tend to be highly similar to others, leading to overconfidence in the mean and spread of the simulations. Such overconfidence yields misleading estimates of the accuracy, value, and uncertainty of the wind resource.

Published
2017

13. Radar climatology of the COPS region

Author

Weckwerth, Tammy M., primary, Wilson, James W., additional, Hagen, Martin, additional, Emerson, Tracy J., additional, Pinto, James O., additional, Rife, Daran L., additional, and Grebe, Leslie, additional

Published
2011
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19. The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part I: Overview of the Modeling System, the Forecast Products, and How the Products Are Used.

Author

Yubao Liu, Warner, Thomas T., Bowers, James F., Carson, Laurie P., Fei Chen, Clough, Charles A., Davis, Christopher A., Egeland, Craig H., Halvorson, Scott F., Huck Jr., Terrence W., Lachapelle, Leo, Malone, Robert E., Rife, Daran L., Rong-Shyang Sheu, Swerdlin, Scott P., and Weingarten, Dean S.

Subjects
SCIENCE, TECHNOLOGY, EDUCATION, TRAINING, FORECASTING, MOUNTAINS, WEATHER forecasting, UNITED States armed forces
Abstract

Given the rapid increase in the use of operational mesoscale models to satisfy different specialized needs, it is important for the community to share ideas and solutions for meeting the many associated challenges that encompass science, technology, education, and training. As a contribution toward this objective, this paper begins a series that reports on the characteristics and performance of an operational mesogamma-scale weather analysis and forecasting system that has been developed for use by the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. During the more than five years that this four-dimensional weather system has been in use at seven U.S. Army test ranges, valuable experience has been gained about the production and effective use of high-resolution model products for satisfying a variety of needs. This paper serves as a foundation for the rest of the papers in the series by describing the operational requirements for the system, the data assimilation and forecasting system characteristics, and the forecaster training that is required for the finescale products to be used effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2008
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20. The Operational Mesogamma-Scale Analysis and Forecast System of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command. Part II: Interrange Comparison of the Accuracy of Model Analyses and Forecasts.

Author

Yubao Liu, Warner, Thomas T., Astling, Elford G., Bowers, James F., Davis, Christopher A., Halvorson, Scott F., Rife, Daran L., Sheu, Rong-Shyang, Swerdlin, Scott P., and Xu, Mei

Subjects
WEATHER, WINDS, TEMPERATURE, HUMIDITY, MOUNTAINS, WEATHER forecasting, DIURNAL variations in meteorology, SEASONS, UNITED States armed forces
Abstract

This study builds upon previous efforts to document the performance of the U.S. Army Test and Evaluation Command’s Four-Dimensional Weather Modeling System using conventional metrics. Winds, temperature, and specific humidity were verified for almost 15 000 forecasts at five U.S. Army test ranges using near-surface mesonet data. The primary objective was to use conventional metrics to characterize the degree to which forecast accuracy varies from range to range, within the diurnal cycle, with elapsed forecast time, and among the seasons. It was found that there are large interrange differences in forecast error, with larger errors typically associated with the ranges located near complex orography. Similarly, significant variations in accuracy were noted for different times in the diurnal cycle, but the diurnal dependency varied greatly among the ranges. Factor of 2 differences in accuracy were also found across the seasons. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2008
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